Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -

Citi notes November new vehicle sales data raises downside risk to Amotiv's 1H26 4WD sales and ARB Corp’s ((ARB)) 1H26 Aussie Aftermarket sales. The data showed the 4x4 segment fell -4% y/y, pointing to ongoing mix shift away from core models.

Most key utes sales are declining on average, with Ranger down -4%, D-Max down -12%, BT-50  down -5%, Triton -1% lower, while Hilux is the exception at 8% growth.

The broker reckons near-term launches -- the Ranger Super Duty (early 2026) and the refreshed Hilux (this month) -- could help stabilise or lift volumes. 

Commenting on BYD Shark, the broker sees ARB as a bit behind on Shark accessories, and Amotiv's upside is limited since BYD isn’t currently using third-party towbar makers.

Buy retained for Amotiv, with unchanged target of $12.56. Citi continues to prefer ARB Corp over Amotiv. 

Target price is $12.56 Current Price is $9.01 Difference: $3.55
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.62, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Among positive takeaways from Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's investor update was strong confidence in cost-outs, with near-term savings plus a bigger program due in 2026, Citi notes.

Other upsides included the RACQ book deal, which is expected to be 4-5% cash-earnings accretive from FY28 and beyond, and bullishness on digital deposit growth.

The big negative was the unresolved AML/AUSTRAC overhang, where management expects substantial remediation work. The broker notes the RACQ buy has used roughly half of the bank's excess capital that might otherwise fund fixes.

FY26-27 EPS forecasts largely unchanged, and FY28 lifted by 3%. Target cut to $10.10 from $11.00 as the broker applies a -10% discount to fair value on financial risk.

Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell, following a -20% share price drop over the last month.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $10.13 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.68, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BEN as Underperform (5) -

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank announced the acquisition of RACQ's banking book which is expected to contribute 5% to FY28 EPS and realise a rise in return on equity to around 7.5%, Macquarie details.

The bank's investor day reconfirmed medium term targets as well as the accretive acquisition but it raises more questions around anti-money laundering issues with a lack of detail and scale of the problem.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -2% for FY26, FY27 is unchanged and FY28 is lifted by 5%. Target price is downgraded to $9.70 from $10.50 due to a bigger discount around anti-money laundering issues.

No change to Underperform rating

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $10.13 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.68, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BEN as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank will buy RACQ Bank’s $2.7bn loan book and $2.5bn deposits (as at 30 June 2025) at book value, funded from excess capital, Ord Minnett notes.

This will cut CET1 by -35bp and is targeted for completion in 1H27. The bank expects the RACQ book to add $50-55m net interest income and be 4-5c EPS-accretive annually, lifting return on equity by 35-40bps.

Management guided FY26 business-as-usual cost growth to “no higher than inflation” and higher amortisation from past investment, but Ord Minnett doubts this, given 1Q26 costs were up 8%.

Potential AML/CTF investigation remediation and penalties add risk. EPS forecast for FY26 trimmed by -3.4% and by -1.5% for FY27 on higher cost forecasts, partly offset by the contribution from RACQ acquisition.

Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold following -20% share price decline in the last four weeks. Target remains at $11.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.13 Difference: $0.87
If BEN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.68, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes spot iron ore and copper prices remain strong, supporting mark-to-market earnings momentum for BHP Group. Spot iron ore is US$108/t vs the broker's FY26 forecast of US$97/t and copper is US$5.4/t vs US$5.1/t.

The broker updated commodity price assumptions, grade-premium and forex, leading to a 1.6% upgrade to FY26 EBITDA estimate and around 1% to FY27.

Copper output is seen as a clear upside from higher Escondida grades, pointing to FY26 production near the top of the 1,150–1,250kt range.

Target unchanged at $47 and Neutral maintained. The broker has initiated a positive short-term view on the stock.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $44.50 Difference: $2.5
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.48, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie lowers its forecast spot LNG prices through 2026, reflecting a loosening gas market as new LNG capacity comes online. It's felt an underweight stance in the ASX Oil & Gas sector is appropriate given the broker's still-bearish outlook for both oil and LNG.

The analyst continues to view Beach Energy as overvalued on the basis of its existing asset base, though M&A is seen as a potential avenue to unlock value.

Macquarie's target price falls to 77c from 80c. Underperform rating maintained.

Santos remains the broker's preferred pick on valuation grounds and clear catalysts to re-rate.

Target price is $0.77 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: minus $0.395 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BXB as Neutral (3) -

UBS reiterates the strategic value of Brambles' non pooling capex, citing operational gains from automation and Serialisation-plus, but notes the narrative shifted in FY25.

The broker highlights lower spend to date, with FY25 capex coming in well below earlier guidance due to efficiency and deferrals, following a similar undershoot in FY24.

Management's decision to pause rollout of six automated end-to-end repair processes to optimise equipment configuration demonstrates a disciplined, return on invested capital-focused approach is viewed positively.

Chile trial learnings have already cut expected US /UK capex by US$40m, with further design improvements potentially lifting Serialisation-plus returns via lower capex or higher margins. 

EPAL’s rollout of QR-coded pallets supports the logic of digitising the European pool but increases competitive pressure as rivals move first on the technology.

Neutral rating and $25.65 target retained.

Target price is $25.65 Current Price is $23.42 Difference: $2.23
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.78, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Brazilian used vehicle sales rose 17% year-on-year in November, slowing from 22% increase in October and 26% in September. The latest month saw a -16% m/m decline, partly due to fewer working days, but the 2025 year-to-date growth is already higher than 2024.

Overall, used vehicle sales are up 20% y/y in 1H26 to date, posing upside risk to the broker's 23% y/y 1H26 forecast for Webmotors, where CAR Group has a majority stake.

CAR Group remains the broker's top internet pick. Buy retained with unchanged $42.55 target.

Target price is $42.55 Current Price is $32.85 Difference: $9.7
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.15, suggesting upside of 29.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Fineos Corp's competitor Guidewire’s 1Q update offers a useful read-through, according to Macquarie, with both companies showing largely flat performance over the past quarter.

The broker notes Guidewire raised FY26 guidance after delivering strong numbers, including 22% annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth, 27% y/y revenue growth and a 20% operating cash flow margin.

Relative valuation work by the analyst highlights Fineos is trading at a material EV/sales discount, linked to differences in the software and services revenue mix.

Outperform rating kept for Fineos Corp. Target unchanged at $3.48.

Target price is $3.48 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.62
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IMD as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades Imdex to Outperform from Neutral with a rise in target price by 4% to $3.80. It follows the announcement to acquire Advanced Logic Technology and its subsidiary Mount Sopris Instruments for -EUR55.8m (circa -$98.9m), and the share price pullback.

Existing cash and debt facilities will be used to fund the acquisition, with leverage moving to around 1.1x.

The analyst lifts EPS forecasts by 2% for FY26 and FY27, with around $10m in revenue to be added in FY26 and circa $2m in earnings (EBITDA). The acquisition is expected to be EPS positive in the first full year of ownership.

Macquarie believes the strategic change in business model to rental is expected to generate more sustainable and more robust margins over time.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.56
If IMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie downgrades Monash IVF to Neutral from Outperform post the rejection of the 80c per share bid from a consortium including Genesis Capital and WH Soul Pattinson ((SOL)). They currently control around 91.6% of the company.

The board believes the bid fundamentally undervalues the business.

The analyst notes market conditions have changed since Virtus sold at around 11.9x EV/EBITDA, versus Monash, which is currently valued around 8.1x.

The outlook for IVF has not altered since 2022, and numerous incidents have raised concerns over customer acquisition and increased regulatory outcomes.

Target price remains at 94c.

Target price is $0.94 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.075
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.89, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates NXL as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Nuix will acquire Linkurious for around -$35m, adding graph-powered AI capability and expanding Nuix Neo use cases, explains Shaw and Partners. The transaction will be funded via debt and existing cash reserves.

It’s thought the deal enhances the company's growth potential through cross-sell opportunity, with Linkurious contributing around $12m in annualised contract value and positive earnings and operating cash flow.

The analysts believe customer overlap will be modest at 10-20%, supporting incremental sales potential and material distribution benefits.

Shaw retains a Buy, High Risk rating and target of $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $1.28
If NXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts have opened a 90-day positive catalyst watch as they seem confident more contract announcements are forthcoming from NextDC.

The analysts are equally questioning whether the share price should not have responded with more gusto following the OpenAI announcement.

Earlier the broker responded as follows:

OpenAI been signed as anchor tenant for NextDC's planned 650MW S7 data centre at Eastern Creek in Sydney. Citi believes the contract is likely to exceed 100MW.

The broker sees the deal as incremental to last week’s contracted utilisation announcement, though earnings are expected no earlier than FY28 given approvals are yet to begin.

S7 is a wholesale build-to-suit facility, explain the analysts, and its joint-venture structure limits the scale of potential earnings upgrades.

Confidence in NextDC’s ability to execute large wholesale projects is seen as improving, while customer exposure becomes more diversified.

Citi retains a Buy rating and target of $18.35.

Target price is $18.35 Current Price is $13.44 Difference: $4.91
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.93, suggesting upside of 43.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Neutral (3) -

At the AGM update, Premier Investments guided to 1H26 underlying EBIT (pre-AASB 16) at about $120m, missing Citi's $128m estimate and the consensus of around $141m.

The downgrade is mainly due to Smiggle, reflecting tough UK trading and weak Australian brand momentum. The company announced Georgia Chewing as interim COO of Smiggle, but the broker reckons a permanent appointment is needed to lead the brand's turnaround.

The company announced a $100m on-market share buyback.

Neutral. Target price $24.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $18.09 Difference: $5.91
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.78, suggesting upside of 56.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Citi reckons Rio Tinto presented a compelling strategy at Capital Markets Day, with upbeat guidance for FY25-26 and reaffirmed volume growth to 2030, plus capex easing.

Copper, bauxite, aluminium, and lithium volume guidance sit slightly above expectations, alongside a meaningful improvement in copper unit-cost outlook, the broker notes. Updated guidance points to 7% volume growth in FY25 and 3% annual growth through 2030.

Mid-term capex is guided below US$10bn, and US$5-10bn cash from divestments should boost cash flow and the balance sheet, the broker highlights. This should support 40-60% payout and likely driving consensus upgrades, in the broker's opinion.

Neutral. Target price $140.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $140.58 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $132.42, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes Rio Tinto's cost-out goal at the Capital Markets Day underwhelmed vs investors' hopes for around US$1bn. FY27 capex is higher even though longer-term capex is guided -10% lower via a US$4bn decarb spend cut.

The broker highlights growth targets were tweaked, with copper-equivalent 3% compounded annual growth target only to 2030 and not 2033. Lithium growth estimate trimmed -13% to 2028, and the prior 460ktpa 2033 lithium target was dropped.

A new US$5-10bn capital-release aim from infrastructure sales was flagged, but overall expectations going in were higher. Also, the company didn't provide clarity on which assets would be monetised.

The broker believes the update may prompt some investor rotation from Rio Tinto into BHP Group ((BHP)).

Equal-weight. Target unchanged at $129.50. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $129.50 Current Price is $140.58 Difference: minus $11.08 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $132.42, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Accumulate (2) -

At the Capital Markets Day, Rio Tinto's new CEO Simon Trott announced a strategy targeting a 40-50% lift in operating earnings by decade-end, driven by simpler operations, Ord Minnett observes.

The company expects a 3% compounded annual growth in copper-equivalent production over the 2024-2030 period, while estimating a -4% annual decline in unit operating costs over the same period.

The broker's calculation suggests US$0.4-0.5bn savings per year (US$2-3bn by FY30), taking FY30 operating earnings to US$32.5–35bn vs the market's estimate of US$29.5bn. The broker notes the strategic review of several assets could raise up to US$10bn.

Overall, the broker notes US$650m recent cost cuts were smaller than hoped. Maiden FY26 guidance disappointed for Canada/Simandou iron ore, lithium and copper, while Pilbara iron ore, bauxite, alumina and aluminium were broadly in line.

FY25 EPS forecast lifted by 0.3% but FY26 trimmed by -2.8%. Target rises to $140 from $136. Accumulate maintained.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $140.58 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $132.42, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto's CEO is aiming to streamline and simplify the mining giant, with the aim of raising earnings (EBITDA) by 40-50% by 2030, assuming consensus prices.

The main factor underpinning the improvement will come from volume growth, 3% CAGR for copper equivalent, led by Oyu Tolgoi, Simandou and lithium, as well as cost savings, UBS explains.

Asset sales are anticipated to generate US$5-10bn, including Borates, iron and titanium. Management is still flagging a reduction in CO2 emissions by -50% by 2030, with decarbonisation capex to be down to US$1-2bn from US$5-6bn.

Neutral rating remains with a higher target price of $138 from $130.

Target price is $138.00 Current Price is $140.58 Difference: minus $2.58 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $132.42, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHL as Hold (3) -

Sonic Healthcare's FY26 to-date revenue provided at the trading update showed 17% growth, broadly matching expectations. Ord Minnett notes growth is mainly from acquisitions, with organic growth only around 5%.

FY26 operating earnings guidance was reiterated at $1.87-1.95bn, weighted to 2H, with slightly lower depreciation and interest expense toward the low end of guidance.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 1.2% and FY27 by 0.6% on the improved cost outlook, while FY28 is unchanged.

The broker's confidence is limited because organic growth is weak, noting FY26 forecast EPS is barely above FY19 despite $3.3bn of acquisitions, with price cuts, quotas, and cost inflation capping gains.

Hold rating. Target price $24.50.

This update was published December 1.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $23.05 Difference: $1.45
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.72, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie lowers its forecast spot LNG prices through 2026, reflecting a loosening gas market as new LNG capacity comes online. It's felt an underweight stance in the ASX Oil & Gas sector is appropriate given the broker's still-bearish outlook for both oil and LNG.

Santos remains the broker's preferred pick on valuation grounds and clear catalysts to re-rate. The target is reduced by -2% to $8.00 and the Outperform rating is maintained.

The analysts see substantial value in Santos after the XRG/Carlyle deal collapse. It's felt this will be more fully recognised once deliveries begin from the Barossa gas project via Darwin LNG in the coming weeks and from the Pikka oil project in Alaska in 1Q26.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.63 Difference: $1.37
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.53, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates STP as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Management at Step One Clothing has issued 1H revenue guidance of $30-33m compared to Bell Potter's $49.9m forecast. Earnings (EBITDA) are now expected in the range of a -$9m to -$11m loss vs the broker's $8m profit estimate.

Bell Potter attributes the downgrades to a -$10m inventory write-down linked to failed discounting and extremely weak November trading in a key sales period.

Slowing customer growth and lower basket sizes underpin the analysts' reduced revenue forecasts, while the -$10m provision and heavier promotions drive lower margin assumptions.

Long-term earnings margins are seen reverting to high single-digit as the Australian market matures and UK expansion becomes the primary growth avenue.

Bell Potter cuts its target price to 30c from 85c and downgrades to a Hold rating from Buy.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0
If STP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STP as Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy (3) -

Morgans lowers its target for Step One Clothing to 30c from 95c and downgrades to Hold from Speculative Buy following a materially weaker-than-expected trading update for 1H26.

The analyst notes the crucial Black Friday period materially underperformed and highlights a -$10m inventory provision after clearance initiatives failed to meet expectations.

The broker's earnings forecasts for FY26-28 are materially reduced, reflecting slower growth assumptions and uncertainty around the company’s strategic direction.

A reset year is seen ahead, with slower growth and greater reliance on product expansion and improving brand strength.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0
If STP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Sell (5) -

Citi has updated forecasts for Treasury Wine Estates to include a 1H26 goodwill impairment recently flagged by Treasury Americas.

The broker reckons the impairment aligns with weak market signals and highlights past overpayment, stronger structural headwinds, and a potentially rougher California distributor shift.

Underlying earnings estimates stay the same. Target price cut to $5.11 from $5.26 as the broker applies a bigger SOTP discount to Treasury Americas and Collective on a softer outlook.

Sell remains, with continued downside risk seen for Penfolds, especially after recent China channel checks.

Target price is $5.11 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.14, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie lowers its forecast spot LNG prices through 2026, reflecting a loosening gas market as new LNG capacity comes online. It's felt an underweight stance in the ASX Oil & Gas sector is appropriate given the broker's still-bearish outlook for both oil and LNG.

The analyst views Woodside Energy's Sangomar oilfield performance as exceptionally strong across its first five quarters and now applies 50% risking to a potential Phase 2.

While Scarborough remains on track for a 2H26 start, the broker is concerned weaker gas markets in 2027-28 may weigh on sentiment as management advances its largely uncontracted US LNG project.

Macquarie raises its 12-month target price by 4% to $25 on higher 2027 and 2028 forecasts arising from reduced tax assumptions. Neutral rating maintained. 

Santos remains the broker's preferred pick on valuation grounds and clear catalysts to re-rate.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $25.55 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.12, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie visited Woolworths Group's newly completed Moorebank National and Regional Distribution Centres, highlighting a national supply chain strategy designed to lift productivity and network efficiency.

The broker considers Moorebank a significant -$1.3bn investment, with management's remaining focus on completing Sydney Chilled & Fresh DC and Melbourne North CFC over the next two years.

Management believes double-digit return on funds employed (ROFE) is achievable, implying more than $130m in earnings (EBIT) benefits as operations scale. The broker sees store execution and e-commerce fulfilment as important watchpoints.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and target of $29.60.

Target price is $29.60 Current Price is $29.39 Difference: $0.21
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.12, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Woolworths Group hosted a tour of its new Moorebank regional (NSW) and national distribution centres. It showed continued ramp-up, operating at 0.5m cases/week (2.8m full run rate) and 3.5k SKUs (stock keeping unit), versus 9k, UBS explains.

The company is investing -$2.7bn across its supply chain, with Moorebank at -$1.3bn, the Sydney Chilled & Frozen distribution centre at Erskine Park -$900m, Melbourne North -$260m and Auburn -$250m.

A double-digit return on funds employed is expected by FY30 across the five facilities, with the broker noting net benefits starting to flow through from FY28.

Neutral rating retained with a $29 target. No change to UBS' earnings forecasts.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $29.39 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.12, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WTC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades WiseTech Global to Outperform from Neutral with a $108.50 target price retained. The analyst believes the company is maximising long term value creation even if there are some near-term economic impacts.

The challenges are believed to be proportional to the size of the opportunity, with the WiseTech update providing more confidence around execution of the long term strategy with minimal risks to 1H26 earnings. The analyst remains cautious on FY26 and FY27 guidance.

Around 850 of Large Global Freight Forwarders (LFF) haven't transitioned to the new revenue model, with the top 300 customers over 70% of FY24 sales, reflecting the extended rollout of container transport optimisation.

Macquarie believes WiseTech is "fundamentally reshaping" the logistics industry but, with over 90% of revenues from customers being disrupted, the resistance to change could remain.

No change to earnings forecasts.

Target price is $108.50 Current Price is $73.80 Difference: $34.7
If WTC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $115.76, suggesting upside of 57.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WTC as Buy (1) -

WiseTech Global's investor day outlined progress across key growth initiatives, including the launch of CargoWise Value Packs, which shift billing to a transactional model, explains Morgans.

The broker highlights broad customer uptake of the new structure and notes that embedded AI workflows are expected to materially improve efficiency and reduce labour requirements.

The Container Transport Optimisation product is also seen as a significant long-term opportunity, while integration of E2open is tracking well with cost synergies progressing ahead of schedule, observes the analyst.

Morgans cuts its target price to $112.50 from $127.60 on slightly lower FY26-FY28 revenue and earnings forecasts to reflect timing adjustments for new revenue streams. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $112.50 Current Price is $73.80 Difference: $38.7
If WTC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $115.76, suggesting upside of 57.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources