Australian Broker Call

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March 26, 2021

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
NWL - Netwealth Group Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
APA  APA GROUP

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $10.18

Macquarie rates APA as Outperform (1) -

With speculation that Australian wind farm developer Epuron is considering a sale process, Macquarie assesses it would potentially be an attractive alternative to Tilt, to step change APA Group's renewable strategy.

The broker feels the most significant attraction would be a management team with a good track record in identifying attractive wind sites and moving through the environmental approval process. The Outperform rating and $10.17 target are unchanged.

Target price is $10.17 Current Price is $10.18 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.83, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 19.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of -6.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 53.20 cents and EPS of 28.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of 21.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX  ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $71.56

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley sees increased competition for cash equities trading for ASX emanating from CBOE Global Markets acquiring Chi-X Asia Pacific, including the Australia and Japan operations.

The broker highlights competition could also extend to additional products and data. Equal-weight. Target of $75.80. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $75.80 Current Price is $71.56 Difference: $4.24
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.68, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 222.00 cents and EPS of 250.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 247.0, implying annual growth of -4.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 221.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 229.00 cents and EPS of 254.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 250.1, implying annual growth of 1.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 225.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AX1  ACCENT GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $2.35

Citi rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

The broker has come away from Accent Group's investor day with a reinforced view the company is one of the most
entrepreneurial and innovative retailers under its coverage. Accent continues to launch new concepts and invest in new vertical brands.

Not all will necessarily be successful, but the broker suggests the company has the capacity to get right behind the ones that are and "turbocharge" growth. Buy and $2.85 target retained.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.5
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.62, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 13.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of 34.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.6, implying annual growth of -2.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKW  BRICKWORKS LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $19.80

Citi rates BKW as Buy (1) -

Brickworks' result was driven by demand for industrial property driving valuations higher, the broker notes. Earnings momentum nonetheless continues to build in both the building products and property divisions.

Other than disruption in NSW (rain), the broker believes the second half will remain strong on HomeBuilder demand, particularly in WA. The company also boasts property development potential that could boost rental income by 44%.

Buy retained, target rises to $23.00 from $22.70.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $19.80 Difference: $3.2
If BKW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.81, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 98.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.6, implying annual growth of -50.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 79.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.1, implying annual growth of -8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates BKW as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie upgrades EPS forecasts for FY21-23 by 87%,14% and 13%, respectively. First half results beat expectations, with Property delivering a far stronger performance than expected by the broker.

Property was buoyed by demand-driven compression in cap rates that drove revaluations and profit recognition on a prior land sale from the company into the JV trust, explains the analyst. 

Macquarie highlights cost control in Building Products has been good in both regions, which combined with significant plant reconfiguration is likely to deliver significant operating leverage. However, Building Products North America continues to struggle against tepid demand.

The analyst believes most of the positives are factored into the current share price valuation and retains the Neutral rating while lowering the target to $20.30 from $20.60.

Target price is $20.30 Current Price is $19.80 Difference: $0.5
If BKW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.81, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 109.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.6, implying annual growth of -50.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 99.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.1, implying annual growth of -8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates BKW as Add (1) -

The first half result was materially better than Morgans had feared due to stronger contributions from Property and Investments though building products North America (BNPA) was weaker than expected. A 21 cent interim dividend was declared.

Management noted demand has started to recover during March, while price rises have been implemented during February. The company also remains confident in the ability of BNPA to deliver improved future earnings.

Add rating and target price increases to $21.60 from $21.01. The broker highlights cyclical upside in the Buildings products business and significant value is being created in the Industrial Property Trust, with gross rental income to rise 40% by FY23. 

Target price is $21.60 Current Price is $19.80 Difference: $1.8
If BKW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.81, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 103.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.6, implying annual growth of -50.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 108.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.1, implying annual growth of -8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates BKW as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Brickworks with a Buy rating and a target price of $25.50.

The broker thinks Brickworks is well placed to benefit from the acceleration in housing activity in Australia, with a strong pipeline of work in place for at least the remainder of FY21. In the US, conditions in non-residential construction remain challenging, notes the broker.

In Ord Minnett's view, Brickworks' property operations remain a key area of upside for the business, with construction on major projects on track.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $19.80 Difference: $5.7
If BKW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.81, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 103.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.6, implying annual growth of -50.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 97.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.1, implying annual growth of -8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates BKW as Buy (1) -

Brickworks reported a net profit beat of $90m driven by property revaluation and sales.

Australian building materials delivered revenue that was -2% lower over last year and -4% below UBS's forecasts. In the US, the numbers were in line despite being impacted by covid and the weather.

In the broker's view, the key to Brickworks is property and not building materials. While the building materials markets will continue to improve this year, they form only circa 15% of UBS's valuation.

The broker's positive thesis on the company is underpinned by surging demand for warehousing and distribution centres in Sydney's West.

Buy rating and the target price rises to $23.64 from $22.70.

Target price is $23.64 Current Price is $19.80 Difference: $3.84
If BKW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.81, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.6, implying annual growth of -50.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.1, implying annual growth of -8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB  BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $10.33

Citi rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Brambles has underperformed the market by around -30% over a year, but Citi defends its Buy rating. The stock is now trading at its lowest relative PE in over a decade.

Rising input costs and competition from plastic pallets overhang the stock, but the broker believes both concerns are out of proportion. Second half automation benefits will mitigate most input cost rises, and market dilution from plastic is relatively small.

Given the uncertainty surrounding a quality stock, the broker sees an attractive opportunity. Buy and $12.89 target retained.

Target price is $12.89 Current Price is $10.33 Difference: $2.56
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.10, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 30.43 cents and EPS of 52.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 35.18 cents and EPS of 58.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.2, implying annual growth of 10.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU  COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $14.99

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Overweight (1) -

In a further update to yesterday's note (also included below), Morgan Stanley increases the target price to $16.85 from $16.30 and retains the Overweight rating. The broker highlights this more than triples its exposure to a potential rise in US interest rates.

Computershare is buying Wells Fargo Corporate Trust. Morgan Stanley finds the 15% earnings accretion attractive although points out it will take five years for the company to achieve this.

The broker considers this deal to be substantial for Computershare and highlights the acquisition will increase the company's recurring revenues and increase exposure to US securitisation market. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $16.85 Current Price is $14.99 Difference: $1.86
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.68, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 62.12 cents and EPS of 71.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 56.81 cents and EPS of 70.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.4, implying annual growth of 7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CPU as Lighten (4) -

To show the capital raising Computershare needs to fund the purchase of Wells Fargo’s corporate trust services business, Ord Minnett has updated its earnings forecasts. The forecast for FY21 remains unchanged but the broker has increased its FY23 earnings estimate by 0.5%.

On balance, Ord Minnett is cautiously optimistic about the purchase and the increase in exposure to interest rates it should provide. The broker still has a number of concerns and prefers to stick to its Lighten recommendation. 

The target price rises to $12 from $10.75.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $14.99 Difference: minus $2.99 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.68, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 43.27 cents and EPS of 69.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 43.27 cents and EPS of 71.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.4, implying annual growth of 7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Computershare has entered into an agreement to acquire the Wells Fargo Corporate Trust Services (CTS) assets for a purchase price of US$750m. The company expects the acquisition to be earnings neutral on a pro-forma FY21 basis.

Going by the consensus forecasts for FY25-26, the deal implies a circa 10% accretion to current forecasts, points out UBS.

Neutral rating retained with a target price of $15.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $14.99 Difference: $0.01
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.68, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 58.63 cents and EPS of 72.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 47.46 cents and EPS of 73.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.4, implying annual growth of 7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $269.83

Macquarie rates CSL as Neutral (3) -

Foot traffic for the around 100 US-based plasma collection centres has fallen in recent weeks with consistent trends across key states. Current foot traffic (7-day rolling average) sits below levels recorded over July-December 2020.

The company has noted seasonal weakness in late-February/early-March (associated with the timing of annual tax returns), but with 2019 data showing steady improvement from mid-March to June.

Macquarie also highlights recent stimulus payments (up to US$1,400 per person) commenced in the week of 15 March 2021.

While current broker forecasts assume improved collections over coming months, a continuation of recent trends/absence of improvement presents downside risk to forecasts. The Neutral rating and $288 target are retained.

Target price is $288.00 Current Price is $269.83 Difference: $18.17
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $297.30, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 315.19 cents and EPS of 708.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 665.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 269.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 341.57 cents and EPS of 748.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 658.1, implying annual growth of -1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 301.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN  EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $4.41

Credit Suisse rates EVN as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse likes Evolution Mining for its peer low cost, strong free cash flow generation and positive production growth outlook.

From a valuation standpoint, Evolution Mining offers less value upside than both peers Newcrest Mining ((NCM)) and Northern Star Resources ((NST)) on spot gold price value scenario.

When it comes to quality, risk, value and growth, Credit Suisse maintains Evolution Mining as its preferred large-cap gold exposure although acknowledges both Northern Star and Newcrest Mining offer greater relative value.

The Outperform rating remains intact with the target dropping to $4.60 from $5.10.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.41 Difference: $0.19
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.71 cents and EPS of 24.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of 38.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.11 cents and EPS of 30.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.5, implying annual growth of -4.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FSF  FONTERRA SHAREHOLDERS' FUND

Dairy

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Overnight Price: $4.59

UBS rates FSF as Neutral (3) -

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund has stabilised its earnings and mostly repaired the balance sheet, notes UBS.

While the company has guided to better outcomes over the next four years, the broker believes the pace of earnings recovery in FY22 will likely be relatively modest as the dairy company faces margin pressure from higher milk costs and potentially declining milk volumes.

To balance short-term uncertainties and long-term upside, UBS retains its Neutral rating. Target rises to NZ$5 from NZ$4.05.

Current Price is $4.59. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.68 cents and EPS of 29.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 13.65 cents and EPS of 30.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB  HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $20.85

Citi rates HUB as Buy (1) -

While uncertainty remains on what cash margins Netwealth and Hub24 will be able to earn in the future, the broker believes further downside risk is limited and the reduction in cash margins is to more sustainable levels.

The broker expects both platforms will deliver strong earnings growth. Netwealth offers less execution risk, the broker notes, as Hub has to bed down acquisitions, but Hub offers greater earnings leverage.

Buy retained for Hub24. The depression in cash margins takes the target down to $26.00 from $26.70.

Target price is $26.40 Current Price is $20.85 Difference: $5.55
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.37, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 26.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 79.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of 103.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 79.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.80 cents and EPS of 44.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.4, implying annual growth of 63.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates HUB as Add (1) -

ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) is the primary banker to the Platforms sector and provides similar arrangements to both Hub24 and Netwealth Group ((NWL)). The latter announced the bank has provided 12 months notice to terminate the current pooled cash deposit arrangements.

While the termination is not unexpected to Morgans there is near term earnings uncertainty/risk until new arrangements are finalised and the delay in agreeing terms infers the bank is looking for a significant change in rate.

The broker factors in a -30 basis point (bps) reduction in the deposit rate for both platform groups. Every 10bps move impacts the analyst's FY23 forecast EPS by around 5% for HUB24. Add rating and target falls to $25.19 from $25.40.

If the outcome is worse than expected Morgans believes the company can absorb the impact and still deliver substantial growth on a long-term view.

Target price is $25.19 Current Price is $20.85 Difference: $4.34
If HUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.37, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 90.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of 103.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 79.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.4, implying annual growth of 63.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPL  INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $2.83

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights that fertiliser prices have increased to the highest level in more than five years and the historical correlation with the Incitec Pivot share price has been high.

The broker states current prices suggest further upside for the share price. Overweight reiterated with a target of $3.25. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.42
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 100.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 26.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $25.25

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse likes that Newcrest Mining has a superior resource base to peers which includes undeveloped resources that will provide production growth and increase operating diversification.

With higher relative value, the company screens cheapest versus peers under a scenario of spot gold/copper pricing.

While seeing considerable long-term opportunity within Newcrest Mining, the broker thinks until the company executes on project development, it remains acutely exposed to the performance of two of its assets - Cadia (Australia) and Lihir (PNG).

On a 12-month investment view, Credit Suisse views Northern Star Resources ((NST)) and Evolution Mining ((EVN)) as offering more attractive investment propositions.

Outperform retained. Target falls to $29.60 from $33.90.

Target price is $29.60 Current Price is $25.25 Difference: $4.35
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.77, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 55.84 cents and EPS of 195.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 62.81 cents and EPS of 231.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 178.8, implying annual growth of -2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST  NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $10.22

Credit Suisse rates NST as Outperform (1) -

As the only pure-play gold producer, Credit Suisse notes Northern Star Resources is the highest cost producer and has underperformed its large-cap peers Newcrest Mining ((NCM)) and Evolution Mining given the decline in the gold price in AUD terms.

If the broker's constructive outlook on gold price comes to fruition over 2021-22, Credit Suisse expects Northern Star to outperform peers. The broker also remains attracted to the company's superior production and earnings growth profile.

Outperform retained with the target price falling to $13 from $14.75.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $10.22 Difference: $2.78
If NST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.69, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.58 cents and EPS of 66.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.9, implying annual growth of 55.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.88 cents and EPS of 114.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.1, implying annual growth of 26.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWL  NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $13.78

Citi rates NWL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

While uncertainty remains on what cash margins Netwealth and Hub24 will be able to earn in the future, the broker believes further downside risk is limited and the reduction in cash margins is to more sustainable levels.

The broker expects both platforms will deliver strong earnings growth. Netwealth offers less execution risk, the broker notes, as Hub24 has to bed down acquisitions, but Hub offers greater earnings leverage.

Netwealth upgraded to Buy from Neutral. The depression in cash margins takes the target down to $16.10 from $16.95.

Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $13.78 Difference: $2.32
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.01, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of 23.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.0, implying annual growth of 14.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates NWL as Hold (3) -

ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) is the primary banker to the Platforms sector and provides similar arrangements to both Netwealth Group and Hub24 ((HUB)). The former announced the bank has provided 12 months notice to terminate the current pooled cash deposit arrangements.

While the termination is not unexpected to Morgans there is near term earnings uncertainty/risk until new arrangements are finalised and the delay in agreeing terms infers the bank is looking for a significant change in rate.

The broker factors in a -30 basis point (bps) reduction in the deposit rate for both platform groups. Every 10bps move impacts the analyst's FY23 forecast EPS by around 4% for Netwealth. Hold rating and target falls to $15.40 from $16.20.

If the outcome is worse than expected Morgans believes the company can absorb the impact and still deliver substantial growth on a long-term view.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $13.78 Difference: $1.62
If NWL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.01, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of 23.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.0, implying annual growth of 14.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates NWL as Hold (3) -

Netwealth Group will lose its current cash management facility with ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) in March 2022. The company is negotiating with other banks about an alternative facility which Ord Minnett thinks will likely come with a significant cut to the cash margin.

Earnings forecasts have been cut by circa -20% from FY23 onwards and the broker prefers Praemium ((PPS)) over Net Wealth.

Hold rating with the target falling to $13.30 from $15.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $13.78 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.01, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 22.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 61.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of 23.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.0, implying annual growth of 14.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OGC  OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $2.01

Credit Suisse rates OGC as Outperform (1) -

In a year of record gold pricing, Credit Suisse notes OceanaGold Corp had an extremely challenged 2020. The company's year to date performance is below that of peers, down -22% versus VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF's (GDXJ) -17%.

Factors that contributed to its underperformance include production downgrades, unresolved permitting of the Didipio mine, gold prepayment arrangements needed to support liquidity and a downgrade to the multi-year outlook for the Haile gold mine.

Credit Suisse believes the company is past the most challenging period and has a runway for multi-asset production growth over many years in New Zealand supporting its outlook. 

Outperform retained with the target falling to $2.40 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.01 Difference: $0.39
If OGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.40 cents and EPS of 8.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.79 cents and EPS of 33.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of 93.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRU  PERSEUS MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $1.14

Credit Suisse rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Perseus Mining continues to impress Credit Suisse as the company executes its multi-year strategy that has seen the miner transition from a single asset miner with Edikan to a multi-asset portfolio with the successful Sissingue mine performance and recent Yaoure mine commissioning.

Outperform rating retained. Target falls to $1.40 from $1.45.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.26
If PRU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.47, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of -18.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 15.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.8, implying annual growth of 93.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL  REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $3.07

Credit Suisse rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

Regis Resources offers attractive absolute and peer relative valuation, observes Credit Suisse, in part driven by assumed successful permitting and execution on its NSW growth project, McPhillamys which adds $1.03 to the broker's value.

Outperform rating. Target drops to $5.05 from $5.10.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $1.98
If RRL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.31, suggesting upside of 39.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 38.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of -9.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 62.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.6, implying annual growth of 20.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SBM  ST BARBARA LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $2.06

Credit Suisse rates SBM as Outperform (1) -

St Barbara is one of the few gold companies that offers the opportunity for production growth across its entire portfolio, notes Credit Suisse. The broker thinks the company has an attractive 1-3 years production growth outlook, albeit at modestly higher cost.

Credit Suisse retains its Outperform rating with the target falling to $3.05 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.99
If SBM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 42.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 21.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 13.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 35.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of 20.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKO  SERKO LIMITED

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $5.85

Macquarie rates SKO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes meaningful B4B booking volumes are in sight. This is after the company released an update on the Booking.com for business joint venture, which noted the transition of existing customers to the new ‘powered by Zeno’ platform has commenced.

Also trading conditions are on the improve as A&NZ travel restarts with March month-to-date figures around 68% of 2019 and toward the top end of guidance. Outperform retained, target rises to NZ$7.25 from NZ$5.91.

Current Price is $5.85. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $6.55, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 32.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -19.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 53.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SOL  WASHINGTON H SOUL PATTINSON & COMPANY LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $32.29

Morgans rates SOL as Hold (3) -

Washington H Soul Pattinson & Company's overall positive first half result highlighted to Morgans the cyclical earnings nature of some of the core businesses, including New Hope Corporation ((NHC)) and Round Oak.

The broker points out the investment portfolio remained resilient, generating around $85m of net cash flow, allowing for a 26cps fully franked dividend to be declared.

The analyst raises the FY22 underlying profit (NPAT) forecast by around 33% after factoring in improved growth assumptions and earnings upgrades from recent results of core holdings New Hope Corporation and Brickworks ((BKW)).

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $28.84 from $23.31.

Target price is $28.84 Current Price is $32.29 Difference: minus $3.45 (current price is over target).
If SOL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 98.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.88.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 88.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.44.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW  TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP

Furniture & Renovation

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Overnight Price: $9.74

Morgan Stanley rates TPW as Overweight (1) -

After recently initiating coverage on Temple & Webster Group, Morgan Stanley provides further clarification on valuation and believes the company is cheaper on a growth adjusted basis versus e-commerce peers.

The broker also estimates capital returns of 12% per year assuming around $1.5bn of sales in FY30, a 15% EBITDA margin and a 15 times terminal multiple.

Overweight rating and $14 target retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $9.74 Difference: $4.26
If TPW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 69.57.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.70.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOR  WORLEY LIMITED

Energy Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $10.49

Ord Minnett rates WOR as Hold (3) -

In Ord Minnett’s view, capital expenditure forecasts across Worley’s three key segments – energy, chemicals and resources – are the best indicator of current business conditions and future revenue growth.

After significantly reducing spending in energy and chemicals in 2020, consensus forecasts suggest capex will increase materially in 2021. Margin expansion driven by cost reductions and operating leverage could also drive further earnings growth.

Despite these positive dynamics, Ord Minnett remains cautious given the current uncertain outlook and potential for market conditions to change quickly.

Hold recommendation with a $10.40 target price.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $10.49 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If WOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.26, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of 34.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.6, implying annual growth of 46.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AX1 Accent Group $2.38 Citi 2.85 2.60 9.62%
BKW Brickworks $20.25 Citi 23.00 22.70 1.32%
Macquarie 20.30 20.60 -1.46%
Morgans 21.60 21.01 2.81%
UBS 23.64 22.70 4.14%
CPU Computershare $14.99 Morgan Stanley 16.85 16.30 3.37%
Ord Minnett 12.00 10.75 11.63%
EVN Evolution Mining $4.28 Credit Suisse 4.60 5.10 -9.80%
HUB HUB24 $21.61 Morgans 25.19 25.40 -0.83%
NCM Newcrest Mining $24.91 Credit Suisse 29.60 33.90 -12.68%
NST Northern Star $10.21 Credit Suisse 13.00 14.75 -11.86%
NWL Netwealth Group $14.25 Citi 16.10 16.95 -5.01%
Morgans 15.40 16.20 -4.94%
Ord Minnett 13.30 15.00 -11.33%
OGC Oceanagold $1.98 Credit Suisse 2.40 2.60 -7.69%
PRU Perseus Mining $1.14 Credit Suisse 1.40 1.45 -3.45%
RRL Regis Resources $3.09 Credit Suisse 5.05 5.10 -0.98%
SBM St Barbara $2.03 Credit Suisse 3.05 3.30 -7.58%
SOL Washington H Soul Patt $31.60 Morgans 28.84 23.32 23.67%
WOR Worley $10.55 Ord Minnett 10.40 10.60 -1.89%
Summaries
APA APA Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $10.18
ASX ASX Ltd Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $71.56
AX1 Accent Group Buy - Citi Overnight Price $2.35
BKW Brickworks Buy - Citi Overnight Price $19.80
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $19.80
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $19.80
Initiation of coverage with Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $19.80
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $19.80
BXB Brambles Buy - Citi Overnight Price $10.33
CPU Computershare Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $14.99
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $14.99
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $14.99
CSL CSL Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $269.83
EVN Evolution Mining Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.41
FSF Fonterra Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $4.59
HUB HUB24 Buy - Citi Overnight Price $20.85
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $20.85
IPL Incitec Pivot Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.83
NCM Newcrest Mining Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $25.25
NST Northern Star Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $10.22
NWL Netwealth Group Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $13.78
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $13.78
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $13.78
OGC Oceanagold Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.01
PRU Perseus Mining Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.14
RRL Regis Resources Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.07
SBM St Barbara Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.06
SKO Serko Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.85
SOL Washington H Soul Patt Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $32.29
TPW Temple & Webster Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $9.74
WOR Worley Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $10.49
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

21

3. Hold

9

4. Reduce

1

Friday 26 March 2021

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