Australian Broker Call
January 30, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 01:14 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| CHC - | CHARTER HALL | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| NST - | NORTHERN STAR | Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| OSH - | OIL SEARCH | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
| OZL - | OZ MINERALS | Downgrade to Reduce from Hold | Morgans |
| PRU - | PERSEUS MINING | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
| QUB - | QUBE HOLDINGS | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
| SCG - | SCENTRE GROUP | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
| TCL - | TRANSURBAN GROUP | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
Macquarie rates AGL as Outperform (1) -
Despite the fact forward curves for electricity have increased nearly 100% in the key markets of New South Wales and Victoria, Macquarie observes FY18 consensus expectations for AGL are unchanged.
The broker's FY18 outlook is materially above consensus. In essence, this means cash generation should start to accelerate.
Macquarie increases its target to $23.44 from $22.89. As confidence grows around the sustainability of electricity prices, the broker expects multiples will also increase. Outperform retained.
Target price is $23.44 Current Price is $22.66 Difference: $0.78
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.06, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 89.00 cents and EPS of 118.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 154.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.0, implying annual growth of 17.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates CHC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
In a general update on the sector, Citi analysts observe investors are very much focused on global bond yields in order to recalibrate their strategies with regards to AREITs, but history shows, point out the analysts, cap rates are a more important factor to keep an eye on.
The cap rate is the ratio of Net Operating Income (NOI) to property asset value. Citi analysts suggest investors should watch for potential trend changes.
Charter Hall has been upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Price target gains 5c to $5.59. Estimates have been lifted ever so slightly.
Target price is $5.59 Current Price is $4.70 Difference: $0.89
If CHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.07, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.50 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of -38.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.60 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.0, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CTD as Add (1) -
Corporate Travel's acquisitions of Redfern Travel and Andrew Jones Travel will make the company a material player in the UK, the broker suggests. Both were acquired at attractive multiples and offer significant earnings accretion. Corporate Travel's corresponding capital raising was oversubscribed.
This provides capacity for further acquisitions in the pipeline, the broker notes. Corporate Travel is one of the broker's high conviction calls. Target rises to $22 from $20. Add retained.
Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.38 Difference: $2.62
If CTD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.92, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.2, implying annual growth of 41.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.7, implying annual growth of 23.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates DRM as Neutral (3) -
The company has updated on the FY17 production outlook for both Deflector and Andy Well. Additional revenue from Deflector improves Macquarie's FY17 earnings estimates by 25%. Lower forecast production results from Andy Well reduce longer-term estimates.
The company has also updated on exploration at Gnaweeda open pit but the broker does not yet include a development scenario for that project. Neutral maintained. Target is $0.50.
Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.045
If DRM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates EHE as Resume Coverage with Neutral rating (3) -
Macquarie resumes coverage with a Neutral recommendation and $2.75 target. The company has completed a fully underwritten 1-for-3 entitlement offer at $2.10 a share and raised $136.8m.
This will be used to pay down debt. FY17 guidance has been reconfirmed. The broker believes the capital raising has reduced uncertainty and the stock is its preferred exposure in the sector.
Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $0
If EHE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of 44.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of -18.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates EVN as Add (1) -
Record gold production in the Dec Q, with Ernest coming on line, means Evolution should comfortably meet guidance, the broker suggests.
Cash flow was flat in the quarter as gold prices fell to offset cost reductions, but debt repayments remain ahead of schedule.
Target falls to $2.37 from $2.45. Add retained on the broker's assumption of upside for gold prices.
Target price is $2.37 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.25
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.3, implying annual growth of 37.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates FBU as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse believes the company is now four years into a seven-year earnings growth cycle. The company is expected to lift its EBIT by a total of 25% between FY16 and FY19. This is driven by increased activity in New Zealand as well as a contribution from self-help initiatives.
At current levels the broker believes the risk/reward is relatively balanced. A Neutral rating and NZ$10.10 target are retained.
Current Price is $10.16. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $11.73, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 40.34 cents and EPS of 61.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 42.47 cents and EPS of 65.92 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.8, implying annual growth of 5.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FPH FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED
Health Care Equipment & Services
Overnight Price: $8.53
UBS rates FPH as Neutral (3) -
Results for ResMed ((RMD)) and Phillips signal to UBS OSA market growth of 7% in the December quarter. Growth has picked up over the last 12 months and there is no sign of significant market disruption.
Risks associated with the new Trump administration continue, including reform of Obamacare and potential tariffs on Mexican imports if NAFTA cannot be re-negotiated.
Neutral and NZ$9.50 target retained.
Current Price is $8.53. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.29 cents and EPS of 27.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of 18.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.47 cents and EPS of 32.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 17.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IGO as Neutral (3) -
December quarter production was better than Macquarie expected. Tropicana beat on gold production and costs. The Nova ramp up is on track.
Macquarie upgrades FY17 earnings forecasts by 88% but notes the upgrade is largely because of capitalising costs at Nova for another quarter.
Neutral rating maintained. The partial removal of the export ore ban in Indonesia, and subsequent weakness in nickel prices, is likely to weigh on the stock in the near term, in the broker's opinion. Target is $4.30.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.36
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 5.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 24.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.7, implying annual growth of 249.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -
December quarter production was strong with iron ore shipments beating Macquarie's estimates. Nevertheless, lower lump sales in the product mix and higher volumes of low-grade material resulted in net cash being in line with expectations.
The broker suspects there is upside risk to FY17 forecasts should approvals at Ion Hill be secured in the next few weeks. Koolan Island re-development remains a key catalyst. Outperform maintained. Target is $0.53..
Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.15
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of -78.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of -94.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 375.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates MQA as Add (1) -
The French government has announced progressive corporate tax rate cuts, which will benefit the APRR, the broker notes.
Meanwhile APRR and AREA have agreed a deal with the government for works financed by local authorities and subject to controlled toll increases.
Both are positives for Macquarie Atlas, the broker notes. Target rises to $6.26 from $5.86. Add retained.
Target price is $6.26 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: $1.24
If MQA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 54.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.2. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 21.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.9, implying annual growth of 104.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates NHC as Hold (3) -
State regulators continue to hold up the approval process for New Hope's Acland Stage 3 expansion. The broker now assumes a longer period of lower production expectation, and suggests the market will continue to apply a discount for political risk.
The broker has upgraded forecasts for higher commodity prices and notes New Hope's cash flow and under-appreciated asset base suggest valuation appeal. But Hold retained due to Acland uncertainty. Target rises to $1.69 from $1.60.
Target price is $1.69 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.045
If NHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 2711.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of -5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates NST as Hold (3) -
December quarter production was in line with forecasts. Output at Jundee has lifted 24%, as Deutsche Bank expected, with milling rates up 20%.
The balance sheet remains strong and the broker expects further news on the Jundee/Kalgoorlie mill expansion will be the next catalyst.
The broker likes the diverse asset portfolio and good cash flow. Hold retained on valuation. Target is $3.50.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 23.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.4, implying annual growth of 62.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates NST as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -
Morgan Stanley is adding the stock to its preferred list of miners. After applying updated commodity prices and operational data, Morgan Stanley's FY17 estimate for earnings per share is down -27%. Nevertheless, FY18 and FY19 are changed to be up 3% and down -8% respectively.
The broker notes the company is carrying a sizeable cash buffer and no bank debt. The FY17 dividend and yield are projected at 9.1c and 2.3% respectively, based on 25% pay-out of free cash flow per share.
Morgan Stanley upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target is $5.30. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: $1.55
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 23.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.90 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.4, implying annual growth of 62.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates OSH as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
Citi analysts are of the view that exploration success at Muruk & Antelope changes the outlook for PNG expansion which has now become more feasible.
As such these latest results support 3 Train expansion including potential for reserve increases.
Target price lifts to $7.03 from $6.48. Upgrade to Neutral from Sell.
Target price is $7.03 Current Price is $7.00 Difference: $0.03
If OSH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.00, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 4.02 cents and EPS of 10.57 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 68.9. |
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.71 cents and EPS of 24.76 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 168.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates OZL as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -
Morgans has updated its OZ valuation, applying increased copper price assumptions, pricing operational improvements at Prominent Hill and reducing the risk-weighting for Carrapateena. The result is a target price increase to $7.30 from $5.95.
This remain well shy of the current trading price. The broker believes the market has re-rated OZ by some 50% on global growth exuberance and a lack of other large, high margin copper exposures on the market. Downgrade to Reduce. The broker prefers Sandfire Resources ((SFR)) in the copper space.
Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $9.16 Difference: minus $1.86 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.69, suggesting downside of -14.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.1, implying annual growth of -11.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.2, implying annual growth of 21.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates PRU as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
As the disappointing news flow continues at Perseus, with the second production downgrade in two weeks, Citi analysts have downgraded to Sell/High Risk from Neutral/High Risk.
The analysts estimate another $30m external funding will be needed to complete the new mine at Sissingue for first production in Q1 2018. Target falls to 37c from 42c.
Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.01
If PRU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.57, suggesting upside of 68.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates PRU as Outperform (1) -
December quarter production met the downgrade flagged for the half. Second half production has been downgraded by 35,000 ozs to 90-110,000 ozs.
The resource at Sissingue has been downgraded 20%, which means commencement has been delayed 4 to 5 months to align with projected funding capacity.
Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and $0.85 target.
Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.49
If PRU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 136% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.57, suggesting upside of 68.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.82 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.65 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates QUB as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
The Moorebank development project has reached financial closure which is significant event, Morgans suggests, triggering long term earnings growth potential for Qube. The broker believes revenue contracts have been awaiting final closure.
Morgans has upgraded earnings forecasts, also adjusting for the Patrick and ATT acquisitions and capital raising. Target rises to $2.63 from $2.53. On a potential total shareholder reward of 15%, the broker upgrades to Add.
Target price is $2.63 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.29
If QUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.6, implying annual growth of 17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates RIO as Hold (3) -
The broker does not see Rio's reduction in diversification through the sale of its thermal coal assets as any concern. The company prefers to operate in a small number of markets in which strong core capacities can be leveraged. The deal is mildly accretive.
Hold and $57.16 target retained.
Target price is $57.16 Current Price is $67.85 Difference: minus $10.69 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $68.02, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 187.37 cents and EPS of 325.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 361.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 198.07 cents and EPS of 396.15 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 494.6, implying annual growth of 36.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 295.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates SCG as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
In a general update on the sector, Citi analysts observe investors are very much focused on global bond yields in order to recalibrate their strategies with regards to AREITs, but history shows, point out the analysts, cap rates are a more important factor to keep an eye on.
The cap rate is the ratio of Net Operating Income (NOI) to property asset value. Citi analysts suggest investors should watch for potential trend changes.
Scentre Group has been upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Price target moves to $4.35 from $4.28.
Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.64, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 21.30 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.3, implying annual growth of 3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 21.40 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SGM as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley suspects recent weakness in the Turkish scrap price may pose risks to the second half outlook. Platt's data suggests the Turkey HMS scrap price has fallen around -US$50/t in the last two weeks. This suggests risks to the US domestic scrap price in the near term.
This signals near-term weakness for the stock, notwithstanding the recent positive update. The broker retains a Equal-weight rating, $11.65 target and In-Line industry view.
Target price is $11.65 Current Price is $11.78 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.39, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 23.30 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.7, implying annual growth of 11.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 32.10 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.2, implying annual growth of 19.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SXY as Outperform (1) -
December quarter production and revenue was below Macquarie's forecast. The broker notes the company continues to move towards first gas at the Western Surat project.
The broker does not currently attribute value to the project, although positive updates on gas flow, de-watering and financing will impact valuation going forward.
Outperform rating and 30c target retained.
Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.02
If SXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -12.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates TCL as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
The rise in government bond rates has weighed heavily on Transurban's share price. Morgans has cut its target on more conservative assumptions, but the new target of $11.23, down from $12.00, suggests 10% upside from the current price.
Transurban's underlying business remains robust, Morgans suggests, and forecast dividend growth remains strong. On a current total shareholder return forecast of 15%, the broker upgrades to Add.
Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.25 Difference: $1.75
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.69, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 50.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 346.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 31.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates TLS as Sell (5) -
Citi analysts have grabbed the opportunity to highlight why they think competition is becoming an ever more important factor for Telstra's future. It's happening in mobile and it is a negative.
On top comes increased regulatory intervention. An accelerated roll out of the NBN is going to increase competition too. Lastly, Telstra will announce the outcome of its capital allocation review later this year. Sell. Target $4.50.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.11 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 35.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of -27.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 39.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of 4.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AGL - | AGL ENERGY | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $22.66 |
| CHC - | CHARTER HALL | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $4.70 |
| CTD - | CORPORATE TRAVEL | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $17.38 |
| DRM - | DORAY MINERALS | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.46 |
| EHE - | ESTIA HEALTH | Resume Coverage with Neutral rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.75 |
| EVN - | EVOLUTION MINING | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.12 |
| FBU - | FLETCHER BUILDING | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $10.16 |
| FPH - | FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $8.53 |
| IGO - | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.94 |
| MGX - | MOUNT GIBSON IRON | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.38 |
| MQA - | MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $5.02 |
| NHC - | NEW HOPE CORP | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.65 |
| NST - | NORTHERN STAR | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.75 |
| Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.75 | ||
| OSH - | OIL SEARCH | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $7.00 |
| OZL - | OZ MINERALS | Downgrade to Reduce from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $9.16 |
| PRU - | PERSEUS MINING | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $0.36 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.36 | ||
| QUB - | QUBE HOLDINGS | Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.34 |
| RIO - | RIO TINTO | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $67.85 |
| SCG - | SCENTRE GROUP | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $4.45 |
| SGM - | SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $11.78 |
| SXY - | SENEX ENERGY | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.28 |
| TCL - | TRANSURBAN GROUP | Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $10.25 |
| TLS - | TELSTRA CORP | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $5.11 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 11 |
| 3. Hold | 11 |
| 5. Sell | 3 |
Monday 30 January 2017
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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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