Australian Broker Call
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March 09, 2022
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BPT - | Beach Energy | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
MIN - | Mineral Resources | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
PAR - | Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals | Downgrade to Reduce from Hold | Morgans |
RIO - | Rio Tinto | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
Overnight Price: $5.30
Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -
Citi identifies both risks and opportunity for the a2 Milk Company relating to the new regulatory standards in China. While the company is expecting to secure its re-registration by end of 2022, it's felt this is no certainty.
The registration allows the sale of China Label product into the mother & baby stores (MBS) and domestic online channels, which represented 40% of 1H infant milk formula sales.
English label sales could also be adversely impacted from a reputational perspective, explains the analyst. On the flipside, should registration be gained, it's thought market share may be won from those who fail the registration process.
The Buy rating and $7.02 target are retained.
Target price is $7.02 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $1.72
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.19, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 34.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ANN ANSELL LIMITED
Commercial Services & Supplies
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Overnight Price: $25.05
Citi rates ANN as Buy (1) -
According to Citi, the expectation of higher interest rates, along with the recent European conflict have weighed heavily on the ASX200 healthcare index. The index has underperformed the ASX200 by -10% so far this year.
While Ansell's earnings will decline post pandemic, the broker feels shares have overcorrected to the downside and maintains a Buy rating and $36.50 target.
Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $25.05 Difference: $11.45
If ANN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.52, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 74.59 cents and EPS of 164.42 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 176.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 84.97 cents and EPS of 168.06 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 190.1, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.00
Citi rates AWC as Neutral (3) -
Citi’s commodity team has raised near-term commodity price forecasts materially, as the Russia/Ukraine crisis looks to be prolonging the pandemic recovery boom.
Thermal coal, oil, nickel, aluminium and iron ore benefit the most as Russia/Ukraine is considered a key exporter, explains the analyst.
While the broker increases Alumina Ltd's FY22 profit forecast by 49%, the target only rises to $2.05 from $2 to reflect both a long asset life and a higher spot Australian dollar rate assumption. Neutral rated.
Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.05
If AWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 20.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 16.86 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of -24.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $48.53
Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -
Citi’s commodity team has raised near-term commodity price forecasts materially, as the Russia/Ukraine crisis looks to be prolonging the pandemic recovery boom.
Thermal coal, oil, nickel, aluminium and iron ore benefit the most as Russia/Ukraine is considered a key exporter, explains the analyst.
Citi stays Neutral-rated on BHP Group, believing the current valuation to be neither cheap nor expensive. The broker's FY22/23 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts are revised up by 28% and 13%, though the target price remains at $48.
Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $48.53 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $47.14, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 663.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 538.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 389.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 494.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 388.2, implying annual growth of -27.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 266.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.70
Macquarie rates BPT as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
Despite limited exposure to spot pricing Beach Energy's share price rose 11% since the start of March, driving Macquarie to downgrade. By comparison Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) rose 16%, Santos ((STO)) rose 8% and Karoon Energy ((KAR)) rose 13%.
The broker finds the share price rally excessive given peers offer better exposure, noting if spot prices of US$127 per barrel of oil are maintained through to the end of FY22 Beach Energy could generate as much as an additional $79m in free cash flow.
Accounting for oil pricing earnings forecasts are updated 6% and -2% for FY22 and FY23.
The rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral and the target price increases to $1.55 from $1.50.
Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.72, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of 41.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of 1.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BRG BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED
Household & Personal Products
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Overnight Price: $24.65
Morgan Stanley rates BRG as Overweight (1) -
Since releasing its first half result in mid February Breville Group's shares have declined -12%, despite reporting 24% year-on-year sales growth and guiding to continued reinvestment as noted by Morgan Stanley.
Global expansion offers opportunity to offset normalising industry demand. Increased market share in European regions where the company has only operated during the two-year pandemic and with a limited product range is likely, suggests the broker, as is expansion into Asia.
Expect product and region launches in the second half. The broker anticipates the company will retain earnings guidance at its May trading update.
The Overweight rating and target price of $36.00 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $24.65 Difference: $11.35
If BRG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.03, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 31.70 cents and EPS of 78.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.9, implying annual growth of 16.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 36.70 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.8, implying annual growth of 15.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.42
Citi rates CIA as Buy (1) -
Citi’s commodity team has raised near-term commodity price forecasts materially, as the Russia/Ukraine crisis looks to be prolonging the pandemic recovery boom.
Thermal coal, oil, nickel, aluminium and iron ore benefit the most as Russia/Ukraine is considered a key exporter, explains the analyst.
While Champion Iron shares are up around 60% in three months, the broker maintains its Buy rating on an expanding production profile. The target rises to $7.30 from $6.50 due to the higher forecast iron ore prices.
Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.42 Difference: $0.88
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 104.44 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 79.67 cents. |
This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $215.22
Citi rates COH as Buy (1) -
According to Citi, the expectation of higher interest rates, along with the recent European conflict have weighed heavily on the ASX200 healthcare index. The index has underperformed the ASX200 by -10% so far this year.
Over the next 12 months, the broker remains of the view that some companies, including Cochlear, will benefit from the end of the pandemic. More than 10% growth is forecast for FY23 earnings.
The Buy rating and $235 target are retained.
Target price is $235.00 Current Price is $215.22 Difference: $19.78
If COH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $225.70, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 315.00 cents and EPS of 454.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 427.7, implying annual growth of -13.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 360.00 cents and EPS of 506.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 479.2, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 362.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $256.65
Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -
According to Citi, the expectation of higher interest rates, along with the recent European conflict have weighed heavily on the ASX200 healthcare index. The index has underperformed the ASX200 by -10% so far this year.
Over the next 12 months, the broker remains of the view that some companies, including CSL will benefit from the end of the pandemic. More than 10% growth is forecast for FY23 earnings.
The Buy rating and $335 target are retained.
Target price is $335.00 Current Price is $256.65 Difference: $78.35
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $317.42, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 315.62 cents and EPS of 694.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 677.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 292.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 430.27 cents and EPS of 860.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 814.8, implying annual growth of 20.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 347.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.28
Citi rates DRR as Neutral (3) -
Citi’s commodity team has raised near-term commodity price forecasts materially, as the Russia/Ukraine crisis looks to be prolonging the pandemic recovery boom.
Thermal coal, oil, nickel, aluminium and iron ore benefit the most as Russia/Ukraine is considered a key exporter, explains the analyst.
The broker retains its Neutral rating for Deterra Royalties. Despite upward revisions for profit forecasts, the target only rises to $4.65 from $4.60 due to a long-life asset exposure without financial/operating leverage, explains Citi.
Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $4.28 Difference: $0.37
If DRR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.57, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of 57.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of -11.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $18.66
Citi rates FMG as Sell (5) -
Citi’s commodity team has raised near-term commodity price forecasts materially, as the Russia/Ukraine crisis looks to be prolonging the pandemic recovery boom.
Thermal coal, oil, nickel, aluminium and iron ore benefit the most as Russia/Ukraine is considered a key exporter, explains the analyst.
Despite higher iron ore forecasts the broker retains its Sell rating for Fortescue Metals Group as higher near term prices are offset partially by the currency. The lack of clarity around Fortescue Future Industries also remains a concern. The target falls to $16 from $17.
Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $18.66 Difference: minus $2.66 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.97, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 308.88 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 167.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 183.44 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 176.1, implying annual growth of -27.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 129.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IDX INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
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Overnight Price: $3.72
Citi rates IDX as Buy (1) -
According to Citi, the expectation of higher interest rates, along with the recent European conflict have weighed heavily on the ASX200 healthcare index. The index has underperformed the ASX200 by -10% so far this year.
Over the next 12 months, the broker remains of the view that some companies, including Integral Diagnostics, will benefit from the end of the pandemic. More than 10% growth is forecast for FY23 earnings.
The Buy rating and $4.85 target are retained.
Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $1.13
If IDX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 14.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of -8.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 21.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 48.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.38
Morgans rates KGL as Speculative Buy (1) -
KGL Resources is set to have a mining and processing operation producing 30,000t per year of copper in concentrate, following the granting of mining leases and receipt of all approvals for its wholly-owned Jervois project.
The company is now scheduled to deliver a feasibility study in the 1H, updating the 2020 preliminary feasibility study, which indicated a mine life of over seven years, from approximately 55% of the resource (defined at the time).
In utilising a long-term copper price forecast of US$3.50/lb, the analyst arrives at a target of $0.815, up from $0.62. Speculative Buy.
Target price is $0.82 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.435
If KGL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.51
Citi rates MGX as Buy (1) -
Citi’s commodity team has raised near-term commodity price forecasts materially, as the Russia/Ukraine crisis looks to be prolonging the pandemic recovery boom.
Thermal coal, oil, nickel, aluminium and iron ore benefit the most as Russia/Ukraine is considered a key exporter, explains the analyst.
Given good leverage to near-term iron ore price changes, Citi retains its Buy rating for Mount Gibson Iron and raises its target to $0.75 from $0.68.
Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.24
If MGX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 4.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 7.90 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $45.91
Citi rates MIN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Citi’s commodity team has raised near-term commodity price forecasts materially, as the Russia/Ukraine crisis looks to be prolonging the pandemic recovery boom.
Thermal coal, oil, nickel, aluminium and iron ore benefit the most as Russia/Ukraine is considered a key exporter, explains the analyst.
The broker upgrades its rating for Mineral Resources to Buy from Neutral. As a higher cost iron ore producer, the company has high earnings leverage to iron ore price increases.
In addition, the analyst considers the company to be a lithium (price forecasts up) play in the short run.The $58 target price is maintained.
Target price is $58.00 Current Price is $45.91 Difference: $12.09
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $55.74, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 220.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 144.8, implying annual growth of -78.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 253.00 cents and EPS of 561.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 384.8, implying annual growth of 165.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.91
Citi rates NHC as Buy (1) -
Citi’s commodity team has raised near-term commodity price forecasts materially, as the Russia/Ukraine crisis looks to be prolonging the pandemic recovery boom.
Thermal coal, oil, nickel, aluminium and iron ore benefit the most as Russia/Ukraine is considered a key exporter, explains the analyst.
Citi stays Buy-rated on New Hope Corp, given leverage to much higher near-term thermal coal price forecasts. The target rises to $2.90 from $2.40.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 102.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.4, implying annual growth of 712.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 80.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.9, implying annual growth of -39.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.0. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.25
Macquarie rates NHF as Neutral (3) -
Given an anticipated recovery in travel as Australia's international borders open, Macquarie notes the return of nib Holdings' travel division offers 10% upside to group earnings through to FY24.
The broker expects travel policies to reach 91% of pre-covid levels by the first half of FY25 despite the company guiding to full recovery by FY24. nib Holdings' policies offer additional covid coverage compared to peers, likely to be attractive to some travelers, suggests the broker.
The Neutral rating and target price of $7.10 are retained.
Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: $0.85
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.77, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 37.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.3, implying annual growth of 0.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 35.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.7, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PAR PARADIGM BIOPHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $1.02
Morgans rates PAR as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -
Morgans believes Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals' chance of achieving a major de-risking event (partial exit via a partnership) for its major asset has decreased.
This comes as the US Patent Office has issued a final rejection notice for the company's key osteoarthritis patent application.
The broker lowers its rating to Reduce from Hold and reduces its target to $0.79 from $1.29 due to decreased confidence on existing IP claims, leadership direction and the cost outlook.
Target price is $0.79 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If PAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 18.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PSQ PACIFIC SMILES GROUP LIMITED
Healthcare services
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Overnight Price: $2.20
Morgan Stanley rates PSQ as Overweight (1) -
In its latest monthly trading update Pacific Smiles reports patient fees have declined -9% year-to-date to $145.1m, with like-for-like patient fees down -13.1%. Morgan Stanley notes the company remains on track for 126 locations open by financial year's end.
The company will need to achieve $5.7m per week in patient fees to reach Morgan Stanley's estimates, but the broker expects this is realistic as restrictions ease, despite impacts of flood events that include the closure of the Lismore location.
The Overweight rating and target price of $3.20 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $1
If PSQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 2.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 10.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RHC RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED
Healthcare services
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Overnight Price: $60.60
Citi rates RHC as Buy (1) -
Ramsay Sante, 53% owned by Ramsay Health Care, has offered to acquire Swedish listed GHP Specialty Care which operates 24 specialist clinics in Sweden and Denmark.
Citi feels the potential transaction would complement Ramsay Sante's Nordic business called Capio though feels the mooted purchase price is expensive. However, details of potential synergies are unclear at this stage.
Overall the transaction is considered immaterial and the broker maintains its Buy rating and $75 target.
In a separate note, Citi points out the expectation of higher interest rates, along with the recent European conflict have weighed heavily on the ASX200 healthcare index. The index has underperformed the ASX200 by -10% so far this year.
Over the next 12 months, the broker remains of the view the company will benefit from the end of the pandemic. More than 10% growth is forecast for FY23 earnings.
Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $60.60 Difference: $14.4
If RHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $69.68, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 138.50 cents and EPS of 189.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.3, implying annual growth of -11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 124.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 185.00 cents and EPS of 279.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 257.4, implying annual growth of 51.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 157.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $120.51
Citi rates RIO as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
Citi’s commodity team has raised near-term commodity price forecasts materially, as the Russia/Ukraine crisis looks to be prolonging the pandemic recovery boom.
Thermal coal, oil, nickel, aluminium and iron ore benefit the most as Russia/Ukraine is considered a key exporter, explains the analyst.
While noting Rio Tinto is not expensive by any means, the broker downgrades its rating to Neutral from Buy, as the share price has appreciated 33% over the last three months. The target rises to $120 from $115.
Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $120.51 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $115.36, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 1921.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1434.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 988.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 1027.25 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1130.8, implying annual growth of -21.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 732.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $33.70
Citi rates RMD as Buy (1) -
According to Citi, the expectation of higher interest rates, along with the recent European conflict have weighed heavily on the ASX200 healthcare index. The index has underperformed the ASX200 by -10% so far this year.
Over the next 12 months, the broker remains of the view that some companies, including ResMed will benefit from the end of the pandemic.
The Buy rating and $38 target are retained.
Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $33.70 Difference: $4.3
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $38.24, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 21.85 cents and EPS of 71.89 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.06 cents and EPS of 81.18 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.1, implying annual growth of 19.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.01
Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -
Citi’s commodity team has raised near-term commodity price forecasts materially, as the Russia/Ukraine crisis looks to be prolonging the pandemic recovery boom.
Thermal coal, oil, nickel, aluminium and iron ore benefit the most as Russia/Ukraine is considered a key exporter, explains the analyst.
Citi raises its FY22 earnings (EBITDA) forecast for South32 by 26%, with Illawarra met coal earnings (EBIT) rising by 72%. The target rises to $5.50 from $5.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.01 Difference: $0.49
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 83.49 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 71.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.7, implying annual growth of -18.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $11.32
Citi rates TWE as Buy (1) -
Citi estimates the prior trading outlook by Treasury Wine Estates could prove conservative, having reviewed data indicating ongoing improvement for US on-premise wine sales.
In addition, the analyst points to feedback suggesting more outdoor dining possibilities will open up over summer.
The Buy rating and $13.78 target are unchanged.
Target price is $13.78 Current Price is $11.32 Difference: $2.46
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.34, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 43.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of 27.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 55.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of 24.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.07
Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -
Citi’s commodity team has raised near-term commodity price forecasts materially, as the Russia/Ukraine crisis looks to be prolonging the pandemic recovery boom.
Thermal coal, oil, nickel, aluminium and iron ore benefit the most as Russia/Ukraine is considered a key exporter, explains the analyst.
Citi stays Buy-rated on Whitehaven Coal, given leverage to much higher near-term thermal coal price forecasts. The target rises to $4.20 from $3.40.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.13
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 140.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 155.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.9, implying annual growth of -23.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
WOW WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $35.74
UBS rates WOW as Sell (5) -
Following the release of study results by the New Zealand Commerce Commission into domestic grocery sector competition, UBS notes the Commission stepped back from more drastic recommendations including divestment to a third major grocery retailer.
The report found the duopoly grocery market, where Foodstuffs hold 55% markets share and Woolworths 33%, limits competition that would benefit consumers and suppliers and creates a difficult environment for expansion of other grocery retailers.
Recommendations are similar to those issued in Australia in 2008, including a grocery code of conduct.
The Sell rating and target price of $34.00 are retained.
Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $35.74 Difference: minus $1.74 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $37.08, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 124.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.8, implying annual growth of -27.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 141.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.5, implying annual growth of 15.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
AWC | Alumina Ltd | $1.97 | Citi | 2.05 | 1.90 | 7.89% |
BHP | BHP Group | $48.49 | Citi | 48.00 | 42.00 | 14.29% |
BPT | Beach Energy | $1.69 | Macquarie | 1.55 | 1.50 | 3.33% |
CIA | Champion Iron | $6.49 | Citi | 7.30 | 6.50 | 12.31% |
DRR | Deterra Royalties | $4.30 | Citi | 4.65 | 4.60 | 1.09% |
FMG | Fortescue Metals | $18.90 | Citi | 16.00 | 17.00 | -5.88% |
KGL | KGL Resources | $0.44 | Morgans | 0.82 | 0.62 | 31.66% |
MGX | Mount Gibson Iron | $0.54 | Citi | 0.75 | 0.60 | 25.00% |
NHC | New Hope | $2.83 | Citi | 2.90 | 2.20 | 31.82% |
PAR | Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals | $1.04 | Morgans | 0.79 | 1.29 | -38.76% |
RIO | Rio Tinto | $119.99 | Citi | 120.00 | 115.00 | 4.35% |
S32 | South32 | $4.94 | Citi | 5.50 | 5.00 | 10.00% |
WHC | Whitehaven Coal | $4.01 | Citi | 4.20 | 3.40 | 23.53% |
Summaries
A2M | a2 Milk Co | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $5.30 |
ANN | Ansell | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $25.05 |
AWC | Alumina Ltd | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.00 |
BHP | BHP Group | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $48.53 |
BPT | Beach Energy | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.70 |
BRG | Breville Group | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $24.65 |
CIA | Champion Iron | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $6.42 |
COH | Cochlear | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $215.22 |
CSL | CSL | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $256.65 |
DRR | Deterra Royalties | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $4.28 |
FMG | Fortescue Metals | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $18.66 |
IDX | Integral Diagnostics | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.72 |
KGL | KGL Resources | Speculative Buy - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.38 |
MGX | Mount Gibson Iron | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $0.51 |
MIN | Mineral Resources | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $45.91 |
NHC | New Hope | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.91 |
NHF | nib Holdings | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.25 |
PAR | Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals | Downgrade to Reduce from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.02 |
PSQ | Pacific Smiles | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.20 |
RHC | Ramsay Health Care | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $60.60 |
RIO | Rio Tinto | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $120.51 |
RMD | ResMed | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $33.70 |
S32 | South32 | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $5.01 |
TWE | Treasury Wine Estates | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $11.32 |
WHC | Whitehaven Coal | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $4.07 |
WOW | Woolworths Group | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $35.74 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 17 |
3. Hold | 5 |
5. Sell | 4 |
Wednesday 09 March 2022
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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