Australian Broker Call

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November 27, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
APX - APPEN Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate Ord Minnett
OSH - OIL SEARCH Upgrade to Buy from Hold Ord Minnett
STO - SANTOS Upgrade to Buy from Hold Ord Minnett
SXY - SENEX ENERGY Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
WPL - WOODSIDE PETROLEUM Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
AGI  AINSWORTH GAME TECHNOLOGY LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $0.80

UBS rates AGI as Sell (5) -

Ainsworth has materially downgraded FY19 earnings expectations despite positive rhetoric around North American-LatAm earnings returning to growth in the first half. Ship share in Australia continues to weaken and while international numbers are not so bad, the broker suspects Australia is a lead indicator, implying further downside.

Sell retained, target falls to 66c from $1.02.

Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If AGI meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.60.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.39.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AHG  AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $1.77

Macquarie rates AHG as Underperform (5) -

The trading update has revealed challenging automotive conditions. Guidance implies a strong recovery in the second half but Macquarie believes the downside risks persist.

Despite screening as relative value, the broker believes there are limited catalysts to drive a re-rating in the near term. The focus is on repositioning the cost base. EasyAuto 123 is expected to break even in the fourth quarter of FY19.

Macquarie believes the balance sheet is increasingly in question and a reduction in the dividend appears the most logical starting point. Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.50 from $2.00.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If AHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.40 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of 14.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates AHG as Hold (3) -

The company's trading update and guidance were worse than Morgans expected. Weakness is most pronounced in automotive and other logistics while refrigerated logistics showed some growth.

Morgans believes the change to risk-based pricing on finance contracts poses a further risk to the company, with its over-indexed exposure. The changes to risk-based pricing from flex financing is one of the largest to hit the automotive retailing sector for some time, the broker suggests.

Morgans remains highly cautious about the outlook for this division over the balance of FY19. The company has indicated the second half performance will improve because a weaker base is being cycled, amid cost reduction measures.

Morgans maintains a Hold rating. Target is reduced to $1.83 from $2.05.

Target price is $1.83 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.06
If AHG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of 14.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALQ  ALS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $7.07

Citi rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

The company's full year guidance implies second half net profit growth of 9-16%, Citi calculates, a slowdown on the 30% growth delivered in the first half.

The broker reiterates a Buy rating and expects growth to be driven by commodities, while life sciences revenue should be solid and margins improved. Citi also notes ample capacity to pursue acquisitions. Target is reduced to $8.60 from $8.90.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.07 Difference: $1.53
If ALQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.15, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 36.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.2, implying annual growth of 250.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 43.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.6, implying annual growth of 14.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APX  APPEN LIMITED

IT & Support

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Overnight Price: $13.38

UBS rates APX as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Tech sector valuations have been de-rated markedly across the globe, UBS notes, led by a correction for the Nasdaq. Yet Appen has upgraded FY18 guidance, leading the broker to upgrade its FY19 earnings forecast by 15%. The stock is now trading in line with its average PE but positive industry feedback and tailwinds support a positive view.

Appen appears to be strengthening its market position hence UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target rises to $16.00 from $15.65.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.38 Difference: $2.62
If APX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 39.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.96.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.20 cents and EPS of 49.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.92.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BGL  BELLEVUE GOLD LTD

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $0.45

Macquarie rates BGL as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie initiates coverage of Bellevue Gold, formerly Draig Resources, with an Outperform rating and $0.70 target. The company has defined a high-grade resource at Bellevue and the broker believes this could be developed as a stand-alone project that would also be an attractive acquisition target for regional producers.

The company recommenced exploration at the site in 2017 and quickly discovered the Tribune and Southern Belle lodes, which were followed up by the recent high-grade Viago lode.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.25
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 32.14.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 56.25.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT  BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $1.50

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes the recent pull back in benchmark oil prices and the slump in energy-exposed stocks has made the Australian energy sector significantly more attractive.

The broker was previously concerned about full valuations but all oil stocks under coverage are now trading below net present value.

Ord Minnett reiterates a Buy rating for Beach Energy, which is the stock considered most exposed to the domestic market albeit with a strong balance sheet. Target is reduced to $2.00 from $2.10.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.5
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of 10.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of 1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL  BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $11.56

Deutsche Bank rates BSL as Hold (3) -

Management has confirmed guidance for first half operating earnings (EBIT) to be 10% above the prior half. Deutsche Bank continues to expect US and east Asian hot rolled coil spreads will deteriorate from the second half of FY19.

Hold rating and $13.50 target maintained.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $11.56 Difference: $1.94
If BSL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.89, suggesting upside of 54.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 206.6, implying annual growth of 39.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 167.8, implying annual growth of -18.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COL  COLES GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $0.00

UBS rates COL as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) -

Coles is a good business, the broker suggests, but the company is facing a number of headwinds including moderating sales growth post Little Shop, cost pressures from wage inflation and a challenging market in convenience. The broker has a more positive medium term view but believes for now a -2% discount to Woolworths ((WOW)) is too rich.

UBS initiates coverage with a Sell rating and $11.90 target.

Target price is $11.90

Current consensus price target is $12.99

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 71.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.6, implying annual growth of 4.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU  COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $18.28

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Underweight (5) -

Computershare is a highly cyclical stock and Morgan Stanley believes the earnings risks for FY20 are building. Three warning signs the broker highlights are the slump in US/UK equity markets, which are down -10-12% from their peaks, predictions of a rolling bear market and the fact that competitors are flagging softer UK plan activity because of elevated uncertainty around Brexit.

Meanwhile, Computershare has recently doubled down on its European franchise by the Equatex acquisition. The broker believes Equatex is particularly exposed to the cycle, given a heavy skew towards transaction revenue and discretionary executive plans.

Morgan Stanley retains an Underweight rating, an In-line industry view and $14 target price.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $18.28 Difference: minus $4.28 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.10, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 61.15 cents and EPS of 93.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 66.47 cents and EPS of 103.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.7, implying annual growth of 12.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTD  CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $22.81

Morgan Stanley rates CTD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points to a robust market for the company's global corporate exposure. Demand growth is expected to step up moderately in 2019. Expenditure on corporate travel is expected to grow 3.7% on a budget-weighted basis.

The broker observes the stock is off -35% from its highs, and believes none of the concerns raised regarding cash flow conversion or geographical footprint warrant a change in view.

The broker believes its survey data reduces the scope for a demand-led miss to expectations in FY19.

Overweight. Target is $27. In-Line industry view maintained.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $22.81 Difference: $4.19
If CTD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.14, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 98.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.6, implying annual growth of 30.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 117.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.5, implying annual growth of 15.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS  DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $10.60

Macquarie rates DXS as Outperform (1) -

Dexus has formed an unlisted industrial trust comprised of around $1.4bn of industrial assets, with GIC as an initial equity partner with a 25% stake.

Macquarie considers the transaction is strategically sound because Dexus is not large in industrial assets, with office being its core competency.

There is limited earnings dilution and the transaction provides balance sheet capacity for the company to progress its developments.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating. Target is raised to $11.06 from $11.00.

Target price is $11.06 Current Price is $10.60 Difference: $0.46
If DXS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.63, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 49.60 cents and EPS of 55.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.6, implying annual growth of -66.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 49.80 cents and EPS of 56.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 3.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Overweight (1) -

The company will form a joint venture with GIC for a wholesale unlisted logistics trust, which will be seeded by $1.4bn in industrial assets and a $138m development land bank. Dexus will keep seven assets with high development potential.

Morgan Stanley considers the sale a positive move, extending the company's strategic objectives as the owner manager of Australian office property. Additional management fees will limit dilution and the company has reiterated guidance for 5% growth in FY19.

Overweight rating retained. Industry view: Cautious. Target price is $11.50.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.60 Difference: $0.9
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.63, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 50.20 cents and EPS of 52.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.6, implying annual growth of -66.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 51.80 cents and EPS of 55.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 3.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH  FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $12.59

Citi rates FPH as Sell (5) -

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's results were in line with expectations. Hospital division revenue grew 11%, supported by new applications. Homecare was also better than Citi expected, amid strong device growth.

High-quality growth from the hospital division, Optiflow, is expected to continue despite the litigation-related expenses.The broker considers the stock overvalued and retains a Sell rating. Target is reduced to NZ$12.00 from NZ$13.00.

Current Price is $12.59. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.49 cents and EPS of 33.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.34 cents and EPS of 37.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of 15.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates FPH as Hold (3) -

First half home-care revenue growth was 6%, with solid outcomes for hardware devices. However, Deutsche Bank notes OSA mask growth was weak at 2%.

Management has announced a delay in manufacturing but believes this will allow a new mask to be introduced early in 2019 followed by more during the year.

Deutsche Bank suspects rival ResMed ((RMD)) is continuing to gain market share. Hold maintained.

Current Price is $12.59. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of 15.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates FPH as Underperform (5) -

First half results were strong at the headline level and broadly in line with expectations. The company has reaffirmed guidance for net profit of NZ$205-210m.

While guidance has been maintained, Macquarie expects growth in earnings per share to moderate in the second half. The company has also announced a delay in manufacturing has resulted in a deferred release date for its new OSA mask range.

Macquarie expects further news flow in coming months on the several litigation cases involving the company. Target is NZ$12.15. Underperform maintained.

Current Price is $12.59. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.31 cents and EPS of 34.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 25.64 cents and EPS of 40.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of 15.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates FPH as Sell (5) -

Fisher & Paykel's result met the broker but only after lower R&D costs offset slower revenue growth. Guidance suggests flat earnings in the second half due to litigation costs and less of an $NZ tailwind, while signs of a mild flu season pose a risk in the half.

FY20 faces delays to mask releases and margin pressure from new manufacturing facilities and IT systems, the broker notes. The share price has come off a lot but the stock still trades at a multiple premium to ResMed ((RMD)). Sell retained, target falls to NZ$12.30 from NZ$12.40.

Current Price is $12.59. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.68 cents and EPS of 33.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.8.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.21 cents and EPS of 38.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of 15.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN  HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics

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Overnight Price: $3.10

Macquarie rates HVN as Neutral (3) -

Harvey Norman reported Australian sales were negative over the year to date, down -1.3%, while like-for-like sales were down -0.2%. Still, Macquarie suggests this is better than the market feared.

Some uplift from the recent completion of the Auburn store is expected, while a larger concern centres on the risk of margin contraction because of investment and possible de-leveraging.

The company is targeting a 20% expansion to the store network over the next two years. Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating and $4.10 target.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $1
If HVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.50 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of -8.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 30.50 cents and EPS of 32.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.9, implying annual growth of -3.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates HVN as Neutral (3) -

The broker has become more cautious on the Australian consumer and has cut forecasts as a result. Harvey Norman is one of the most highly leveraged stocks to a slowing housing and consumer market although not necessarily as exposed as the current share price implies, the broker suggests, given 25% of earnings come from property.

Valuation is thus compelling, but the risk remains to the downside hence the broker retains Neutral. Target falls to $3.00 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of -8.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 29.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.9, implying annual growth of -3.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LLC  LENDLEASE GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $13.09

Credit Suisse rates LLC as Outperform (1) -

Lendlease conducted a briefing to discuss the engineering business and it appears to Credit Suisse that the division is not critical to the company's operations. There is only some limited value to a few development projects.

The broker expects, at the half-year result in February, the strategic review will conclude that an exit is the best option. Meanwhile, cash flow is expected to be weighted towards the second half while net debt will peak at $2.25bn in the first half.

Outperform and $16.20 target retained.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $13.09 Difference: $3.11
If LLC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.86, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 39.36 cents and EPS of 87.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.8, implying annual growth of -38.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 77.29 cents and EPS of 148.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.2, implying annual growth of 55.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates LLC as Neutral (3) -

The company hosted a briefing to provide further details regarding the recent provisions taken in engineering. The company has signalled that it will have to convince the market about the merits of retaining the division.

Lendlease is evaluating whether the division is core to its business and whether the risk profile is acceptable. Macquarie believes a sale/de-merger would be positive in the light of the current share price and the firm outlook for the company's other divisions.

Neutral rating and $15.08 target maintained.

Target price is $15.08 Current Price is $13.09 Difference: $1.99
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.86, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 42.20 cents and EPS of 84.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.8, implying annual growth of -38.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 71.20 cents and EPS of 142.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.2, implying annual growth of 55.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes a marked change in tone at the briefing regarding the engineering division. The broker suspects the company is increasingly manoeuvring towards an exit from the business, unless there are material changes to the industry.

The broker considers the disclosure positive but there were limited details on the other 10% of the provisions outlined on November 9, which may weigh on investor confidence.

A strong balance sheet and real asset business means the broker's Overweight rating is retained. Industry view is Cautious. Price target is $17.95.

Target price is $17.95 Current Price is $13.09 Difference: $4.86
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.86, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 86.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.8, implying annual growth of -38.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 144.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.2, implying annual growth of 55.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates LLC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett commends Lendlease for trying to address concerns and providing greater clarity on the impairment and the issues in engineering.

The broker believes it highly likely the company will exit the engineering & services businesses via sale or de-merger and the worst-case scenario of an orderly wind-down will not come into play.

Accordingly, the broker increases FY20 estimates by 63%. Ord Minnett continues to believe there is a buying opportunity as the stock is trading on unduly negative expectations.

Accumulate maintained. Target is raised to $15.65 from $15.00.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $15.65 Current Price is $13.09 Difference: $2.56
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.86, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.8, implying annual growth of -38.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.2, implying annual growth of 55.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUF  NUFARM LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $5.86

Credit Suisse rates NUF as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse believes the company's omega-3 canola development is a compelling combination of market growth, constrained supply, and an advantage in cost of production as well as patent protection.

Given a constrained supply of wild fish and aquaculture, the broker estimates that virtually all of the supply gap in fish oil will need to be filled by alternative omega-3 sources.

The company's first commercial crop is expected in 2019 in North America with initial sales into Latin America. Sales into China as well as other Asian markets are expected between 2021 and 2023.

Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $10.16 from $8.49.

Target price is $10.16 Current Price is $5.86 Difference: $4.3
If NUF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 34.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 35.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.1, implying annual growth of 45.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 48.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.1, implying annual growth of 29.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $6.66

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett believes the recent pull back in benchmark oil prices and the slump in energy-exposed stocks has made the Australian energy sector significantly more attractive.

The broker was previously concerned about full valuations but all oil stocks under coverage are now trading below net present value.

Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Accumulate and reduces the target to $8.85 from $9.25.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $8.85 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $2.19
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 36.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.1, implying annual growth of 334.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 100.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.5, implying annual growth of 17.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH  OIL SEARCH LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $7.20

Ord Minnett rates OSH as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett believes the recent pull back in benchmark oil prices and the slump in energy-exposed stocks has made the Australian energy sector significantly more attractive.

The broker was previously concerned about full valuations but all oil stocks under coverage are now trading below net present value.

The company is expected to increase gearing to pay for the PNG LNG expansion but the broker does not envisage any need for an equity raising.

Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Hold and reduces the target to $8.65 from $9.10.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $1.45
If OSH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.05, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.87 cents and EPS of 34.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.38 cents and EPS of 70.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of 60.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMD  RESMED INC

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $14.43

Deutsche Bank rates RMD as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank notes competitor, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's ((FPH)) OSA mask growth in the first half was weak, up 2%.

The broker suspects ResMed has gained market share. Buy rating and US$127.70 target maintained.

Current Price is $14.43. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $15.17, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.3, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RSG  RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $0.93

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Resolute Mining will seek a dual listing on the London Stock Exchange to facilitate improved access to European-based and African-focused gold investors.

Macquarie considers this a prudent move as it opens up the stock to potential investors in a market that is more comfortable with African exposure.

The broker expects Syama to become a quality, long-life and low-cost asset. Outperform and $1.40 target retained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.47
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.70 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.02.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.90 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.04.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $5.61

Ord Minnett rates STO as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett believes the recent pull back in benchmark oil prices and the slump in energy-exposed stocks has made the Australian energy sector significantly more attractive.

The broker was previously concerned about full valuations but all oil stocks under coverage are now trading below net present value.

The broker believes the stock offers growth, with production expected to increase more than 75% over the next six years. Ord Minnett upgrades Santos to Buy from Hold, while reducing the target to $7.10 from $7.35.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $1.49
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.02, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.64 cents and EPS of 34.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.97 cents and EPS of 59.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 32.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXY  SENEX ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $0.38

Ord Minnett rates SXY as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett believes the recent pull back in benchmark oil prices and the slump in energy-exposed stocks has made the Australian energy sector significantly more attractive.

The broker was previously concerned about full valuations but all oil stocks under coverage are now trading below net present value.

Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold and reduces the target to $0.42 from $0.43.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.04
If SXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.48, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.4, implying annual growth of 126.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES  WESFARMERS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $31.68

UBS rates WES as Sell (5) -

Coles has de-merged from Wesfarmers and began trading as a separate entity on November 21. Wesfarmers retained a 15% stake. UBS believes the de-merged entity should de-rate but believes this has now been priced in to Wesfarmers.

The broker expects Coles to trade at a -15-20% EBIT discount to Woolworths ((WOW)). Meanwhile, Wesfarmers is a good business with strong assets, in the broker's view, but will be more cyclical without Coles.

The broker has set a Sell rating. Target falls to $31.10 from $48.50.

Target price is $31.10 Current Price is $31.68 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.82, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 178.00 cents and EPS of 208.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.6, implying annual growth of 114.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 153.00 cents and EPS of 177.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 218.2, implying annual growth of -3.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 187.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOR  WORLEYPARSONS LIMITED

Energy Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $13.12

Ord Minnett rates WOR as Buy (1) -

Since the acquisition of the engineering division of Jacob's, the share price of WorleyParsons has slumped -23% and Ord Minnett believes there are two factors involved.

The first is the underwriters of the recent retail component have been left with excess stock and the second is the decline in benchmark oil prices.

Ord Minnett believes the transaction was a mixed blessing as, while it increases scale and broaden scope, the dilutive equity raising has had a negative impact. The broker maintains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $18.40 from $21.00.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $13.12 Difference: $5.28
If WOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.39, suggesting upside of 47.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of 186.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.6, implying annual growth of 40.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $31.46

Ord Minnett rates WPL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett believes the recent pull back in benchmark oil prices and the slump in energy-exposed stocks has made the Australian energy sector significantly more attractive.

The broker was previously concerned about full valuations but all oil stocks under coverage are now trading below net present value.

Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold and reduces the target to $35.50 from $37.00.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $31.46 Difference: $4.04
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.71, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 162.46 cents and EPS of 192.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 210.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 175.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 248.32 cents and EPS of 313.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.0, implying annual growth of 34.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 223.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AGI AINSWORTH GAME TECHN UBS 0.66 1.02 -35.29%
AHG AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS Macquarie 1.50 2.00 -25.00%
Morgans 1.83 2.05 -10.73%
ALQ ALS LIMITED Citi 8.60 8.45 1.78%
APX APPEN UBS 16.00 15.65 2.24%
BPT BEACH ENERGY Ord Minnett 2.00 2.10 -4.76%
BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL Deutsche Bank 13.50 N/A -
DXS DEXUS PROPERTY Macquarie 11.06 11.00 0.55%
HVN HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS UBS 3.00 3.00 0.00%
LLC LENDLEASE Ord Minnett 15.65 15.00 4.33%
NUF NUFARM Credit Suisse 10.16 8.96 13.39%
ORG ORIGIN ENERGY Ord Minnett 8.85 9.25 -4.32%
OSH OIL SEARCH Ord Minnett 8.65 9.10 -4.95%
STO SANTOS Ord Minnett 7.10 7.35 -3.40%
SXY SENEX ENERGY Ord Minnett 0.42 0.43 -2.33%
WOR WORLEYPARSONS Ord Minnett 18.40 21.00 -12.38%
WPL WOODSIDE PETROLEUM Ord Minnett 35.50 37.00 -4.05%
Summaries
AGI AINSWORTH GAME TECHN Sell - UBS Overnight Price $0.80
AHG AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.77
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.77
ALQ ALS LIMITED Buy - Citi Overnight Price $7.07
APX APPEN Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $13.38
BGL BELLEVUE GOLD Initiation of coverage with Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.45
BPT BEACH ENERGY Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.50
BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $11.56
COL COLES GROUP Initiation of coverage with Sell - UBS Overnight Price $0.00
CPU COMPUTERSHARE Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $18.28
CTD CORPORATE TRAVEL Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $22.81
DXS DEXUS PROPERTY Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $10.60
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $10.60
FPH FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE Sell - Citi Overnight Price $12.59
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $12.59
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $12.59
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $12.59
HVN HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.10
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $3.10
LLC LENDLEASE Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $13.09
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $13.09
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $13.09
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $13.09
NUF NUFARM Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.86
ORG ORIGIN ENERGY Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.66
OSH OIL SEARCH Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.20
RMD RESMED Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $14.43
RSG RESOLUTE MINING Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.93
STO SANTOS Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.61
SXY SENEX ENERGY Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.38
WES WESFARMERS Sell - UBS Overnight Price $31.68
WOR WORLEYPARSONS Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $13.12
WPL WOODSIDE PETROLEUM Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $31.46
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

16

2. Accumulate

3

3. Hold

6

5. Sell

8

Tuesday 27 November 2018

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.