Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AFG as Buy (1) -

In an initial response to the Australian Finance Group's completion of $500m residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transaction, Citi highlights the deal represents the group's first non conforming program issuance.

Citi retains its positive view on the group, noting the company presents the highest potential to monetise its distribution by increasing its AFG-branded and self-securitised products in the mortgage broking space.

To the extent the group continues to write a material amount of share in non-conforming loans, Citi believes it stands a better chance of maintaining asset yields and avoiding the areas of the mortgage market with the strongest price competition.

Buy rating maintained with the target price unchanged at $3.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.69
If AFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Buy (1) -

Bapcor is Citi's top pick in the small-cap auto sector and its top pick across the broader small-cap coverage.

Bapcor’s business, defensive in nature, is benefiting from consumer mobility changes and has multiple long-term growth strategies, observes Citi. Further upside comes from earnings accretive acquisitions. 

The broker expects trade sales momentum to continue due to pent up demand from the Victorian lockdown and lower public transport use. Earnings growth forecasts upgraded for FY21-23.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $8.80 from $7.76.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $0.95
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.58, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BAP as Outperform (1) -

The latest trading update reflects strong industry conditions, that have driven 6-9% upgrades to Credit Suisse's estimates across FY21-22.

The broker suggests robust demand for the company's consumable-driven product suite is likely to continue for 18 months and the market multiple continues to re-rate. Moreover the balance sheet is in good shape.

Trade like-for-like sales were up 7.7% in the first quarter and, while the company is expecting a strong first half, no guidance has been provided for FY21. Outperform rating retained. Target rises to $8.75 from $8.40.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $0.9
If BAP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.58, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BAP as Outperform (1) -

First quarter revenue was well ahead of Macquarie's forecasts. No guidance was provided for FY21 because the economic uncertainties have created lower visibility for the second half. Nevertheless, a strong first half is expected.

Bapcor provides a quality exposure to defensive end markets, in the broker's view, with ample capacity on the balance sheet to execute organic growth strategies.

Moreover, the valuation is undemanding and Macquarie retains an Outperform rating, raising the target to $8.50 from $7.60.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $0.65
If BAP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.58, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as Overweight (1) -

Bapcor's first-quarter sales grew 27% with the trade sales division up 10% and the retail division growing 47%. The company expects a strong first half but is less certain about FY21 (thus the second half).

Morgan Stanley sees the second half more choppy than the first half. However, the broker notes strength in market demand and sees upside to gross margin assumptions.

Overweight rating retained with a target price of $8.45. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $0.6
If BAP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.58, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BAP as Add (1) -

Bapcor’s first quarter revenue grew by 27%, with strong divisional trends across the board, according to Morgans.

The broker had previously highlighted key drivers of the strength which were re-iterated by management. These include an increase in sales of second hand cars, reduced use of public transport/shared transport and government stimulus programs.

Management now expects the first half FY21 to be strong, while the second half ‘remains unclear’.

The analyst feels FY21 should shape up to be a very strong period of growth and thinks the key drivers of this strength should persist for some time.

Morgans upgrades the FY21 EPS forecast by around 8.5%, while outer year upgrades are more modest as trading conditions are expected to normalise in time.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $8.42 from $7.47.

Target price is $8.42 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $0.57
If BAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.58, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BAP as Buy (1) -

Continuing the June quarter's (FY20) strong operating momentum, Bapcor's first-quarter group revenue grew by 27% (year on year) and was ahead of UBS's forecast. (1H21E +12% y/y)

UBS observes demand in the core markets is robust led by increasing average vehicle ages, prioritisation of personal vehicle availability, DIY category expansion and fiscal stimulus.

The stock is currently trading at all-time highs, a circa 16% premium to the ASX Small Ords. The broker remains positive about the company and, noting the near term trading momentum, maintains its Buy rating. The target price rises to $8.55 from $7.50.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $0.7
If BAP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.58, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BKW as Buy (1) -

CSR will be selling the third tranche of land at Horsley Park for total proceeds of $84.3m. The sale is expected to deliver operating income of $48 million in FY24.

In Citi's view, the transaction, up 38% year on year from the sale of circa 20 hectares, shows the strong demand for industrial property in Western Sydney. The broker expects industrial demand in Western Sydney to remain robust driven by the shift to e-commerce.

Citi thinks this bodes well for Brickworks' current rental negotiations for the Oakdale West development, expected to be completed early 2021, along with the broader portfolio.

Buy rating maintained with a target price of $20.95.

Target price is $20.95 Current Price is $20.00 Difference: $0.95
If BKW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.40, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Citi is bullish on oil despite its recent consolidation in the US$40-45/bbl range. The base case for the broker estimates oil priced at US$50/bbl by the end of the year and US$60/bbl in 2021.

In Citi's view, there exist significant geopolitical risks over the medium term including a tightening of the oil supply, leading to a decline in the production growth in shale, Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, if Biden is elected. Contrasting this is the downside risk of Iranian sanctions being relaxed that could flood the market with an additional 1mbpd of oil.

The long term Brent oil price forecast of circa US$55/bbl remains unchanged. Updating Beach Energy's third-quarter commodity prices with actual figures, increasing its 2022 base case oil forecast and updating the Waitsia model leads to a fall in the net profit forecast for FY21. The net profit forecast is revised upwards for FY22.

Buy rating has been maintained with the target price trimmed slightly to $1.91 from $1.94.

Target price is $1.91 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.51
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 34.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Kcentra, assessing revenue growth will moderate from FY22, and calculates Kcentra accounted for around 9% of group net profit in FY20.

The broker believes increased uptake of direct oral anticoagulants and increased share for on-label reversal agents will impact on the growth of Kcentra.

Macquarie makes no changes to estimates. Neutral rating and $295 target retained.

Target price is $295.00 Current Price is $296.67 Difference: minus $1.67 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $311.11, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSR as Buy (1) -

CSR will be selling the third tranche of land at Horsley Park for total proceeds of $84.3m. The sale is expected to deliver operating income of $48 million in FY24.

In Citi's view, the transaction, up 38% year on year from the sale of circa 20 hectares, shows the strong demand for industrial property in Western Sydney. The broker expects industrial demand in Western Sydney to remain robust driven by the shift to e-commerce.

This shift will provide valuation support for CSR and Citi expects more value could be unlocked as the company optimises its manufacturing footprint at Horsley Park.

Citi retains its Buy rating with a target price of $4.30.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSR as Buy (1) -

CSR sold the industrial block Horsley Park Stage 3 in Western Sydney for $84.3m which is 38% higher than Stage 2. UBS points out CSR will earn an operating income of $48m. A further 11.4ha is left at Horsley Park which the broker estimates will lead to operating earnings of $68m.

UBS notes CSR's large land bank in Western Sydney is leveraged to the long term rising demand for industrial land due to the rise in demand for warehouses and distribution centres with more e-commerce. Valuation remains underappreciated, comments the broker.

Buy rating maintained with the target unchanged at $4.77.

Target price is $4.77 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: $0.11
If CSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Preliminary first quarter results reveal production of 170,000 ounces at an all-in sustainable cost of $1,198/oz. Two development submissions for Cowal underground have been lodged.

The quarter was in line with Macquarie's expectations and a Neutral rating is retained. Target is $6.20.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $6.12 Difference: $0.08
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.41, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Underweight (5) -

Evolution Mining's September quarter preliminary group production sits in-line with Morgan Stanley's estimate with costs slightly better than the guidance and broker forecast.

Cowal underground is going according to plan an the broker expects production to commence in FY23.

Underweight rating. Target is $5. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $6.12 Difference: minus $1.12 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.41, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

If Goodman Group is treated as an industrials company rather than a REIT, Morgan Stanley finds the group's projects deliver a return on invested capital (ROIC) of circa 15%. This indicates value creation for investors when compared with the company's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 8-9%.

Morgan Stanley indicates the market does not focus on ROIC for the group since in real estate, the lower the yield/cap rate, the better is the valuation. 

In FY21, the broker estimates Goodman Group will invest circa -$800m of capital to deliver $2.7bn cash operating income over the next 15 years.

Overweight rating. Target is raised to $20.90 from $20.00. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $20.90 Current Price is $18.60 Difference: $2.3
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.70, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates LNK as No Rating (-1) -

Link Administration has received a conditional acquisition proposal from a consortium at $5.20 cash. The board is considering the proposal and notes there is a scrip alternative.

The indicative price equates to 16.3x the broker's FY22 earnings estimates. Credit Suisse is restricted on providing a rating and target.

Current Price is $4.99. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LNK as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Link Administration Holdings received a conditional proposal from a consortium of Pacific Equity Partners and Carlyle to acquire 100% of Link's shares for an indicative cash price of $5.20 per share.

The offer puts Link Administration at circa 30% premium to the last closing price. Perpetual holds about 9.65% of Link and is in favour of the offer. 

Apart from the offer, the broker notes the company is also in the process of acquiring the PES loan management business.

Given the strategic interest in Link Administration, Morgan Stanley upgrades its rating to Equal-weight from Underweight. Target is increased to $5.20 from $3.40. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $0.21
If LNK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LNK as Hold (3) -

Link Administration has received a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal to acquire 100% of its shares via a Scheme of Arrangement. The proposal is being made by a consortium consisting of Pacific Equity Partners, Carlyle Group and their affiliates. The indicative cash price under the proposal is $5.20 a share.

Perpetual ((PPT)), which holds 9.65% of the company, has stated it intends to vote in favour of the consortium acquiring the company if the Scheme proceeds (absent a superior proposal). This gives the consortium a foot in the door, according to Morgans.

The bid price of around 23x times the forecast FY21 price earnings ratio is probably a fair multiple in the current climate, in the broker's view. However, it's considered earnings are expected to recover strongly in the next few years (macro upside and cost-out) with the bid multiple closer to around 15x times FY23 forecast earnings.

The bid price also needs to be considered against inherent long-term value/optionality in PEXA and a company share price closer to $6.50 in February (pre-covid-19), suggests the analyst.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $5.20 from $4.21.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $0.21
If LNK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LNK as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Link Administration has received a conditional proposal from a consortium at $5.20 a share. In Ord Minnett's view a higher rival bid is less than Iikely.

The offer would be by way of a scheme of arrangement at $5.20 a share, or some scrip alternative.

Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Accumulate because of the strong uplift in the share price following the announcement. Target is raised to $5.00 from $4.60.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $0.01
If LNK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LNK as No Rating (-1) -

Link Administration has received a conditional, non-binding, indicative proposal from a consortium comprising Pacific Equity Partners (PEP) and Carlyle Group to acquire 100% for $5.20 per share of the group by way of a scheme of arrangement. The proposal is a 30% premium to its previous share price close. 

The broker feels due diligence is key to moving towards a binding offer. Investors have been offered a scrip alternative to retain their ownership in PEXA but the broker claims this is not without risk with tougher prospects going forward given weaker property transaction volumes owing to covid-19.

The broker is currently research restricted on providing a rating and target.

Current Price is $4.99. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGX as Buy (1) -

The September quarter production result for Mount Gibson noted significant improvement in mining performance after the onset of the dry season and the removal of saturated sediments in the Main Pit floor. 

Citi notes cost performance was good with the group cash cost per tonne below its FY21 guidance. Sales guidance for 2020-21 remains unchanged. 

Citi reaffirms its Buy rating with a target price of $1.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.28
If MGX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NXT as Overweight (1) -

NextDC announced a $1.5bn senior debt facility from a banking syndicate. Morgan Stanley sees the facility as replacing the existing $800m of notes and $300m facility along with adding $400m to fund additional capex requirements.

The broker estimates an annual interest cost-saving of a little over $10m translating to a circa 2% improvement on the company's effective interest rate. The broker forecasts FY21 to be neutral post fees but expects material savings from FY22.

Overweight retained. Target is raised to $14.60 from $13.40. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $13.16 Difference: $1.44
If NXT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.14, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NXT as Accumulate (2) -

NextDC has entered into a $1.5bn senior debt facility. The facility is expected to improve financial covenants and cost of debt.

Ord Minnett notes, on a pro forma basis, NextDC will have liquidity of around $1.6bn, including cash of $893m.

Accumulate retained. Target is raised to $14 from $13.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $13.16 Difference: $0.84
If NXT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.14, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NXT as Buy (1) -

NextDC has entered into a new syndicated facility agreement for a $1.5 billion senior debt facility. The facility will be split across three tranches - a term loan facility, a capital expenditure facility and a revolving credit facility. The company will use the term loan facility to redeem the $800m in unsecured notes.

In UBS's view, the renegotiation of NextDC's debt facilities not only de-risks its data centre roll-out strategy, but is also a positive indicator of the company moving to the next stage of its business maturity evolution.

Industry conditions remain buoyant and the broker believes in the thematics of NextDC's leveraging off the data generation era.

Even after the recent re-rating, UBS considers the stock attractive versus international peers and retains its Buy rating. The target price increases to $15.25 from $14.15. 

Target price is $15.25 Current Price is $13.16 Difference: $2.09
If NXT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.14, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates OPC as Hold (3) -

Aware Super (formerly named First State Super) has made a formal off-market takeover offer for OptiComm at $6.50 per share (including a 10cps fully franked dividend). The offer is 100% cash and is at an 8.2% premium to the implied value of Uniti Group's ((UWL)) offer.

The offer from Aware Super is subject to a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. Additionally, there are customary conditions including there being no material adverse change, prescribed occurrence or regulated event affecting OptiComm. 

Morgans advises shareholders the short-term price outlook is all about whether, or not, a higher takeover offer eventuates. 

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $6.50 from $5.85.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.50 Difference: $0
If OPC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OPC as Hold (3) -

Aware Super has proposed an acquisition of OptiComm at $6.50 a share including a $0.10 special dividend. The price represents 20% premium to Ord Minnett's former valuation.

Uniti Group ((UWL)) has three business days to counter the offer. Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating, waiting for the bidding process to play out. Target is raised to $6.50 from $5.42.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.50 Difference: $0
If OPC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Citi is bullish on oil despite its recent consolidation in the US$40-45/bbl range. The base case for the broker estimates oil priced at US$50/bbl by the end of the year and US$60/bbl in 2021.

In Citi's view, there exist significant geopolitical risks over the medium term including a tightening of the oil supply, leading to a decline in the production growth in shale, Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, if Biden is elected. Contrasting this is the downside risk of Iranian sanctions being relaxed that could flood the market with an additional 1mbpd of oil.

The long term Brent oil price forecast of circa US$55/bbl remains unchanged. Origin Energy's net profit forecasts have been increased for FY21-22.  

Citi retains its Buy rating with the target price rising slightly to $6.80 from $6.79.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: $2.43
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.36, suggesting upside of 45.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Uncertainty appears likely to extend into 2021 for Orica and temper expectations for a profit improvement, Credit Suisse suggests. The broker notes, amid high levels of coronavirus infections, Latin America and Africa continue to struggle to return to normal levels of activity.

The broker reduces earnings forecasts for FY21 because of a slower rate of recovery in demand. Target is reduced to $16.41 from $16.59. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $16.41 Current Price is $16.11 Difference: $0.3
If ORI meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.01, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

Orica expects underlying earnings (EBIT) to be slightly above $600m. Ammonium nitrate volumes in the second half are likely to be at the lower end of prior guidance.

The company will now report its FY20 result two weeks later, on November 20, because of pandemic-related issues. Macquarie believes the share price has largely factored in the recent underperformance and retains an Outperform rating with a $19.25 target.

Target price is $19.25 Current Price is $16.11 Difference: $3.14
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.01, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates OSH as Buy (1) -

Citi is bullish on oil despite its recent consolidation in the US$40-45/bbl range. The base case for the broker estimates oil priced at US$50/bbl by the end of the year and US$60/bbl in 2021.

In Citi's view, there exist significant geopolitical risks over the medium term including a tightening of the oil supply, leading to a decline in the production growth in shale, Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, if Biden is elected. Contrasting this is the downside risk of Iranian sanctions being relaxed that could flood the market with an additional 1mbpd of oil.

The long term Brent oil price forecast of circa US$55/bbl remains unchanged. Net profit forecasts for 2020-22 for Oil Search have been revised upwards.  

Citi reaffirms its Buy rating with the target reducing slightly to $3.85 from $3.87.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $1
If OSH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Sell (5) -

Pilbara Minerals reported September quarter shipments of 44kt, in-line with Citi's forecast and within the guided range of 40-50kt.

Citi's FY21-22 estimates remain mostly unchanged as better cash cost performance is somewhat offset by weaker near-term spodumene price forecast.

The Pilgangoora mine is expected to remain a core supply source for the lithium industry, but the broker needs to see a recovery in price over a few quarters before turning optimistic on Pilbara's outlook.

Citi maintains its Sell rating with a target price of $0.32.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.31, suggesting downside of -15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Underperform (5) -

While production and shipments were solid in the first quarter, Pilbara Minerals has pointed out prices remain weak.

Pricing reflects lower demand across the entire lithium supply chain, but the company has noted that demand conditions are recovering and buying activity has improved.

Macquarie incorporates the result and lowers FY21 estimates for earnings per share by -9%, retaining an Underperform rating and $0.27 target.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.31, suggesting downside of -15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QAN as Hold (3) -

The reopening of some domestic borders and the establishment of international travel bubbles is considered a positive for Qantas, despite the doubts around timing.

A trans-Tasman bubble will initially operate one way, with Australians travelling to New Zealand required to quarantine for 14 days. There is also the possibility this could be extended to include the Pacific Islands, Japan, Singapore and South Korea in the near future.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $4.20 from $3.50 because of changes to earnings forecasts and higher peer multiples.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If QAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.21, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIQ as Outperform (1) -

Activity levels continue to improve, Macquarie observes. Novated lease volumes were down -11% in the third quarter as a higher conversion rate offset softer leads, which were down -25%.

Despite the soft conditions, the broker considers the stock attractive and expects continued improvement in activity, while the current valuation is undemanding. Outperform rating retained. Target is reduced to $7.18 from $7.35.

Target price is $7.18 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: $1.23
If SIQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Citi is bullish on oil despite its recent consolidation in the US$40-45/bbl range. The base case for the broker estimates oil priced at US$50/bbl by the end of the year and US$60/bbl in 2021.

In Citi's view, there exist significant geopolitical risks over the medium term including a tightening of the oil supply, leading to a decline in the production growth in shale, Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, if Biden is elected. Contrasting this is the downside risk of Iranian sanctions being relaxed that could flood the market with an additional 1mbpd of oil.

The long term Brent oil price forecast of circa US$55/bbl remains unchanged. Santos' net profit forecasts for 2020-22 have been revised upwards.  

Buy rating maintained with the target price rising slightly to $7.29 from $7.14.

Target price is $7.29 Current Price is $5.06 Difference: $2.23
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.52, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SXY as Buy (1) -

Citi is bullish on oil despite its recent consolidation in the US$40-45/bbl range. The base case for the broker estimates oil priced at US$50/bbl by the end of the year and US$60/bbl in 2021.

In Citi's view, there exist significant geopolitical risks over the medium term including a tightening of the oil supply, leading to a decline in the production growth in shale, Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, if Biden is elected. Contrasting this is the downside risk of Iranian sanctions being relaxed that could flood the market with an additional 1mbpd of oil.

The long term Brent oil price forecast of circa US$55/bbl remains unchanged. Citi updates Senex Energy's third-quarter commodity prices with actual figures (mark-to-market) and increases its 2022 base case oil forecast. This leads the net profit forecasts for FY21-22 to be revised upwards.

The broker maintains its Buy rating with a target price of $0.38.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.05
If SXY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Buy (1) -

UBS considers Telstra a compelling Buy but notes with the share price languishing, the market disagrees.

Looking for possible reasons to explain this, the broker finds three: FY21 earnings skewed towards the second half, increased mobile industry competition after the launch of iPhone 5G and the impact of NBN Co's new corporate plan on data & IP earnings.

Also, there are concerns about the dividend being cut. The broker sees these risks as either transient or priced in and remains optimistic.

Buy rating and $3.70 target maintained.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.92
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

China's dispute with Australian wine producers could lead to an interim tariff being announced later this week. Macquarie assesses the prospect.

The broker envisages Treasury Wine can absorb tariffs of up to 30% without major disruptions to its volumes, but margin will be heavily affected.

While the valuation is supportive and Macquarie retains a Neutral rating, the level of risk around the Asian business is considered too high.

Moreover, the margin outlook in the rest of the world is challenged as premium wine demand in the US and Australasia continues to be heavily affected by restaurant and cellar door closures. Target is $10.60.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $9.20 Difference: $1.4
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.31, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates UWL as Buy (1) -

Uniti Group has three working days to match a $6.50 all-in cash competing offer for OptiComm ((OPC)).

With a 19.5% beneficial interest and an advantage in offering scrip upside, Ord Minnett continues to envisage earnings accretion should the company match the new counter offer.

The broker retains a Buy rating, reducing the target to $1.84 from $1.94.

Target price is $1.84 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $0.49
If UWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi is bullish on oil despite its recent consolidation in the US$40-45/bbl range. The base case for the broker estimates oil priced at US$50/bbl by the end of the year and US$60/bbl in 2021.

In Citi's view, there exist significant geopolitical risks over the medium term including a tightening of the oil supply, leading to a decline in the production growth in shale, Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, if Biden is elected. Contrasting this is the downside risk of Iranian sanctions being relaxed that could flood the market with an additional 1mbpd of oil.

The long term Brent oil price forecast of circa US$55/bbl remains unchanged. Citi retains its Neutral rating with the target price rising slightly to $21.67 from $21.64.

Target price is $21.67 Current Price is $18.35 Difference: $3.32
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.97, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources