Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as Underweight (5) -

Heading into results season, Morgan Stanley believes consensus is too optimistic on progress achieved around Bapcor's $100m EBIT transformation target by FY25.

The broker also suggests FY24 earnings are too dependent upon a stronger-than-usual 2H skew, given the soft start to the year mentioned at the AGM.

The Underweight rating and $5.30 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $0.03
If BAP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.64, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Sell (5) -

Due to funding challenges, Citi feels market expectations leading into 1H results for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank are too high, and sets a downside catalyst watch for the bank.

The broker suggests the recent recovery in share price following a disappointing 1Q update is more due to recent expectations around a soft landing and potential for interest rate cuts.

The Sell rating and $8.85 target are unchanged.

Target price is $8.85 Current Price is $9.77 Difference: minus $0.92 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.09, suggesting downside of -7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BOE as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

A busy second quarter from Boss Energy, as per Bell Potter, saw the company commence an infill and scout drilling program at Jasons, secure its first long-term offtake with a US utility. 

Boss Energy also reported the successful flushing of the first wellfield in preparation for the introduction of ferric in the pregnant leach solution.

According to Bell Potter, Boss Energy is the uranium stock most leveraged to continued spot price momentum. The broker has lifted short and mid-term uranium pricing, anticipating a peak of US$130 per pound, driving earnings upgrades to FY25 and FY26.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price increases to $6.41 from $5.69.

Target price is $6.41 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $0.83
If BOE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.72, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Outperform (1) -

Boss Energy has announced the restart of the Honeymoon Uranium Project is 96% complete, with first "uranium in drum" expected in the March quarter.

Drilling programs have been positive, Macquarie notes, and Boss is currently undertaking studies to lift production from 2.4mlbpa to 3.0mlbpa.

The company boasts a solid balance sheet, suggests the broker, including cash and uranium inventory, positioning it well for the Honeymoon ramp-up.

Boss Energy continues to benefit from uranium price tailwinds, offering  earnings and valuation upside at current spot prices, the broker notes.

Target rises to $6.00 from $5.00, Outperform retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $0.42
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.72, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Following its December quarter, Beach Energy  narrowed full year guidance, now suggesting production of 18-20m barrels equivalent at a capital expenditure of $900-1,000m. As per Bell Potter, this suggests higher production and lower expenditure in the second half.

The company reported quarterly production of 4.3m barrels of oil equivalent, impacted by downtime at both BassGas and the Kupe operations but bolstered by improved output from the Otways and the Cooper Basin joint venture.

The broker notes Waitsia stage 2 remains on target for first gas in mid-2024, and is a key component of the company's growth.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.90 from $2.00.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.305
If BPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Beach Energy shipped its first LNG cargo during the December quarter, using largely borrowed gas, Macquarie notes, creating a sizable beat on Dec Q revenues.

A price review at the Otway Basin has been agreed with Origin Energy ((ORG)) for "modest price increases" from 2024 until the next review in mid-2026.

Macquarie considers Waitsia transformative, with start-up by mid-2024 dependent on finalising construction and commissioning.

Target rises to $1.55 from $1.50, Neutral retained.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: minus $0.045 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CRN as Add (1) -

Fourth quarter revenue for Coronado Global Resources missed Morgans forecast by -22%. While sales were only a slight (-3%) miss, met coal price realisation was -60% below expectation. 

The broker notes extreme discounts for lower-ranked coal, which could be ongoing, along with a threat to incremental volume due to tepid steel markets.

The target falls to $1.90 from $2, and while the Add rating is retained, Morgans feels it will take time for the return of market confidence and the narrowing of the current share price discount to the broker's valuation.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.28
If CRN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.03, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Outperform (1) -

Same-store sales growth for Domino's Pizza Enterprises was up a strong 8.2% in A&NZ but nearly flat in Europe, while Asia was a drag on the group at -8.9%. Domino's warned it will miss profit expectations, and Macquarie believes margins were the key issue.

Franchisee profitability has improved in A&NZ. Food inflation has come off, which should act as a further tailwind, the broker suggests.

Domino's is focused on implementing its experience from successful markets into Japan and France.

Target falls to $48 from $58, Outperform retained.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $39.51 Difference: $8.49
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.18, suggesting upside of 40.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DMP as Accumulate (2) -

While Ord Minnett believes a negative share price reaction in response to a trading update by Domino's Pizza Enterprises is overdone, the broker is still disappointed by the performance shown, and lowers its target to $61 from $68.

Christmas trading in Asia missed the company's own expectation, yet the analyst was surprised management so quickly walked away from FY24 guidance.

Because Japanese customers buy less frequently compared to other core markets, the broker suggests management at Domino's takes longer to get a full view around the success of product offerings, which appears to be the case in this instance.

Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating and believes mid-cycle earnings (EBITDA) margins of 20% can be achieved, similar to the level achieved in FY21.

Target price is $68.00 Current Price is $39.51 Difference: $28.49
If DMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.18, suggesting upside of 40.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FMG as Sell (5) -

Bell Potter considers Fortescue's December quarter result in line, with the company reporting iron ore shipments of 48.5m tonnes at a cash cost of US$17.62 per wet metric tonne. This represents marginally lower C1 cash costs quarter-on-quarter.

The company's Iron Bridge operations continued to face water supply disruptions, impacting high grade magnetite production and seeing full guidance lowered again to 2-4m tonnes. Bell Potter notes this does not materially impact the company's full year earnings outlook.

The Sell rating is retained and the target price increases to $21.51 from $21.39.

Target price is $21.51 Current Price is $28.97 Difference: minus $7.46 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.20, suggesting downside of -27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

Fortescue Metals' Dec Q results were largely in line to better than Macquarie expected, featuring higher production and shipments in the period. Group volume, costs and capex guidance are unchanged, however the broker notes Iron Bridge shipments were downgraded.

Given uncertainty over the capital commitment to Future Industries, and an expectation of iron ore price normalisation, the broker retains Underperform with an $18.50 target.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $28.97 Difference: minus $10.47 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.20, suggesting downside of -27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Sell (5) -

Fortescue's iron ore shipments in the 2Q matched Ord Minnett's forecast. While FY24 guidance was maintained, management lowered expectations for shipments and costs at Iron Bridge due to some defective infrastructure.

Average realised iron ore prices were around 33% higher than last year, notes the analyst, driven by higher benchmark prices and a lower discount.

Ord Minnett forecasts iron ore prices will moderate towards the cost curve and discounts will increase to around historical averages. 

The $17.30 target and Sell rating are maintained.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $28.97 Difference: minus $11.67 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.20, suggesting downside of -27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Sell (5) -

Following Fortescue's 2Q operational report, UBS highlights the hematite business continues to perform, and benefit from elevated iron ore prices, along with tight low-grade discounts.

The analyst notes an in-line 2Q performance with a strong US$117/t average realised price.

The target for Fortescue rises to $24.60 from $24.40. The Sell rating remains as UBS is cautious ahead of further financial investment decisions (FID's) for FMG Energy, the Iron Bridge ramp-up, and because of the overall full company valuation.

Target price is $24.60 Current Price is $28.97 Difference: minus $4.37 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.20, suggesting downside of -27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FPR as Buy (1) -

Following FleetPartners Group's AGM update Citi makes only minor positive changes to forecasts for net operating income (NOI) and profit, partly due to improving supply of vehicles.

The Buy rating and $3.60 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.54
If FPR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley attributes the 19% rally in shares of GPT Group over the last three months to a closing of the valuation gap relative to peers, rather than compelling fundamentals, and retains an Equal-weight stance.

The REIT reports FY23 results on February 19, and the broker forecasts FY24 guidance for funds from operations (FFO) will be 31.6cpu (consensus 31.5cpu).

The broker's target rises to $4.60 from $4.20 on a valuation roll-forward. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.41 Difference: $0.19
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFL as Neutral (3) -

Insignia Financial's 2Q update held few surprises for Citi. Funds under management and administration (FUMA) of $300.6bn was a 2.5% quarter-on-quarter increase.

The broker questions if meaningful margin improvement will result should the company achieve its -$60-70m cost-out ambition, which is currently on track to being met.

While the analysts expect a reasonably positive 1H result, stock performance may be restrained by the potential for an incoming CEO to rebase the operations.

The Neutral rating and $2.15 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.44, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates M7T as Add (1) -

Following a 1H trading update by Mach7 Technologies, Morgans sees support for medium-term valuation, but pain in the short-term from the accelerating trend to subscription-style contracts, away from upfront capital sales.

Revenues are now (often) recognised over five years, explains the broker, which gives the appearance of a 'downgrade' in the financial statements. Management is expected to restate 1H guidance, resulting in a -19% decline in recognised revenue. 

Contracted annual recurring revenues for the 1H rose by 30%, with 87% of sales orders relating to the recurring-style subscription and maintenance contracts, explain the analysts.

The target rises to $1.56 from $1.54. Add.

Target price is $1.56 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.88
If M7T meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MIN as Buy (1) -

While second quarter production from Mineral Resources was generally higher than Bell Potter had forecast, realised pricing was less positive.

Lithium prices further declined in the period, dropping below the broker's forecast, while Mount Marion spodumene realised price declined -61% and Wodgina battery chemical realised price declined -45%. Iron ore prices lifted 20% quarter-on-quarter.

The company expects pit expansion work at Mount Marion and Wodgina will be complete by mid-year, considerably lowering production costs.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $75.00 from $90.00.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $59.39 Difference: $15.61
If MIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.57, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Citi lowers its target for Mineral Resources to $71 from $72 following last week's 2Q results. The Buy rating is maintained.

The broker highlights from a conference call (subsequent to the results) management commentary that all lithium mines are cash positive and can make money at US$600/t spodumene.

A summary of research last week shows the broker's first impressions of the results as follows:

At first glance, Citi notes today's 2Q production results for Mineral Resources revealed better-than-expected lithium volumes at Wodgina and Mt Marion, while Bald Hill was in line. Costs at Mt Marion and Wodgina were beats, notes the analyst.

For iron ore, volumes were broadly in line, according to the broker, while realised pricing beat expectations.

Management noted 1H debt will be between $3.47-$3.61bn, higher than Citi's $2.87bn forecast. More details are awaited at 1H results.

In a potential remedy for the higher debt, according to the analyst, the company intends to introduce a partner to own a 49% interest in Onslow haul road in the 2H, to coincide with first Onslow ore in June.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $59.39 Difference: $11.61
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.57, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Mineral Resources' Dec Q results were solid, Macquarie suggests, with beats in iron ore and lithium sales and strong realised iron ore prices, offset by soft lithium pricing. Lower costs reported at both Mt Marion and Wodgina is a key positive in the broker's view.

Mineral Resources plans to selldown a 49% interest in its Onslow haul road in the second half. The potential cash unlocked could materially reduce the net debt level, Macquarie believes.

Outperform and $75 target retained.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $59.39 Difference: $15.61
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.57, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Equal-weight (3) -

Iron ore production and shipments in the 2Q for Mineral Resources were in line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts and realised pricing was a 4% beat. Production at Wodgina was in line while Mt Marion exceeded expectation by 16%.

For FY24, The broker's reduced cost forecasts at the above-mentioned operations more than offset lower forecasts for lithium prices.

The target falls to $63 from $66.50 on financial model changes, the lower lithium price forecasts and an increased net debt estimate as cashflows are being diverted to investing activities, explain the analysts.

Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $63.00 Current Price is $59.39 Difference: $3.61
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.57, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Sell (5) -

After assessing 2Q operational results, UBS highlights ongoing lithium volume growth and lower associated costs for Mineral Resources.

FY24 guidance was unchanged following the lower spodumene unit costs and strong realised prices for iron ore, explains the broker.

Production and sales of iron ore were in line with forecasts by the broker and consensus.

The analyst reiterates a cautious view for lithium prices given a growing market surplus.

The $53 target and Sell rating are unchanged.

Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $59.39 Difference: minus $6.39 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $69.57, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

December 2023 Medicare statistics highlight total IVF cycles up 8.8% year on year. This is the strongest December on record, Macquarie notes, and follows 17.1% growth in November.

In the medium term, reproductive carrier screening, which has been added to the Medical Benfits Scheme, supports significant incremental IVF volume, the broker suggests.

Macquarie continues to see Monash IVF as well-placed for market share gains driven by recent acquisitions and strong specialist recruitment. Outperform retained, target rises to $1.55 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.155
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.45, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PDN as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Paladin Energy's Langer Heinrich mine moved closer to a restart in the December quarter, with the company closing out the period with the announcement that first ore had been fed into the mine's beneficiation plant.

The company aims to remain on track for first production around the end of the third quarter.

Bell Potter estimates a further US$40m in capital expenditure ahead of the restart, and with Paladin Energy closing out the quarter with US$61m in cash and a debt facility of US$150m, the company should be left with a liquidity buffer of US$170m.

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target price increases to $1.60 from $1.31.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.37
If PDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Following last Thursday's quarterly cashflow and activities reports, and higher uranium price forecasts by Citi, the broker upgrades its rating for Paladin Energy to Buy from Neutral. The target is also increased to $1.45 from $1.05.

Citi raises its uranium forecasts in the expectation of a more imminent Russian nuclear fuel ban and potential for ongoing mine development issues in both Niger and Kazakhstan.

The broker forecasts U3O8 will average US$101/lb in 2024 and US$110/lb in 2025, while the long-term forecast is raised to US$115/lb from US$87/lb.

The analyst highlights from the quarterly results first ore feed into the Langer Heinrich processing plant occurred on January 20, with first commercial production still due at the end of Q1 this year.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.22
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Outperform (1) -

Paladin Energy's Langer restart project is now 93% complete, with first production still targeted for this quarter, although could slip into next quarter, Macquarie notes.

Total project costs have been lifted 6% to US$125m as expected and Paladin has executed a US$150 debt facility to strengthen the balance sheet and for working capital.

Paladin remains leveraged to uranium price rises as it has some 80% uncapped upside exposure to spot prices to the end of 2030, the broker points out.

Target rises to $1.50 from $1.40, Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.27
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PDN as Buy (1) -

The restart of the Heinrich Langer mine was the topline news from Paladin Energy's December quarter result, with first ore being fed to the plant in mid-January. As per Shaw and Partners, the project is 93% complete and largely on time and budget. 

It is expected Heinrich Langer will achieve first production early in the second quarter, and Shaw and Partners notes the project should be fully funded through to first positive cash flow, expected in mid-2024, thanks to US$61m in cash and a new US$150m debt facilty.

Shaw and Partners considers Paladin Energy a sector stand out in terms of risk-reward basis. The Buy rating and target price of $1.50 are retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.27
If PDN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RMC as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter has downgraded its forecasts for Resimac Group's first half in light of on-going pressure on the company's mortgage business, now assuming a smaller book at a slightly lower net interest margin.

Resimac Group's mortgage book decreased -14% over FY23 to $13.1bn, from $15.3bn, and Bell Potter anticipated further contraction to $12.3bn over the first half. 

Further, the broker notes Resimac Group sustained a 176 basis point net interest margin over FY23 at the expense of volume, and expects the margin will drop to 161 basis points over the half.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.19 from $1.09.

Target price is $1.19 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.055
If RMC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.05, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RMD as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights ResMed's 2Q gross margin exceeded the consensus expectation by 80bps. Consequently, adjusted EPS of US188cps was 5% ahead of consensus, explains the broker.

Citi feels this outcome may be due to a combination of factors including price increases, favourable currency moves, lower freight costs and a higher mix of AirSense 11.

Importantly, data presented by management show no negative impact from GLP-1's (weight-loss drugs) on the number of CPAP patients, highlight the analysts.

The target rises to $34 from $29. Buy.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $28.45 Difference: $5.55
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.04, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMD as Outperform (1) -

ResMed's Dec Q result was ahead of Macquarie's forecasts, driven by better-than-expected revenue and operating leverage. The broker's forecasts imply solid earnings growth over 2H24, supported by incremental gross margin expansion on cost reduction initiatives.

Regulatory and reimbursement approval has been received for a new mask offering, with market launch "soon".

Macquarie continues to see ResMed as attractive at current levels. Target rises to $33.45 from $33.40, Outperform retained.

Target price is $33.45 Current Price is $28.45 Difference: $5
If RMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.04, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMD as Accumulate (2) -

Following ResMed's 2Q results, Ord Minnett suggests shares remain materially undervalued. Underlying earnings (EBIT) grew by 15% on the 1Q, with sales growing by 5% and the underlying earnings margin increasing by 250bps to 31%.

The 2Q gross margin expanded by 90bps from the 1Q to reach 57% due to product price increases and reduced freight costs, explains the analyst.

Ord Minnett notes expenses are tracking below expectation and there were strong performances from the software-as-a-service business, as well as device sales outside the Americas.

A neglible impact is expected from weight loss drugs over the next five years, and the broker retains an Accumulate rating and $39 target.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $28.45 Difference: $10.55
If RMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.04, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RMD as Neutral (3) -

ResMed's December quarterly update revealed better-than-expected core gross margin, which was received positively on the day, including by UBS, but the analysts warn transport costs could return and bite the company in Q4.

UBS hosted a conference call with CFO Brett Sandercock and reports the CFO confidence is for the gross margin to be higher by the end of FY24 than where it was in FY23.

UBS's focus is on developments in the Red Sea area, hence its concern about transport costs impacting on the gross margin's forward trajectory.

GLP-1s might actually turn out a positive factor, and ResMed's pricing power is supporting the gross margin outlook, the broker explains.

Price target lifts to US$180 from US$175 on increased forecasts. Neutral.

Current Price is $28.45. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $33.04, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RMY as Buy (1) -

A second quarter update from RMA Global outlined ongoing resilience in the company's US subscription revenue growth. The company reported group-wide revenues of $9.1m, up 8% year-on-year, and US subscription revenue of $2.15m, up 50% year-on-year.

Bell Potter explains the US market remains a key opportunity for RMA Global, anticipating falling interest rates could drive a tailwind for house sales and subsequent activity on the company's platforms.

The broker's outlook is based on early-stage success in penetrating the US market, where it sees significant opportunity for paid subscriptions.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 14 cents from 13 cents.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.06
If RMY meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RRL as Buy (1) -

With Regis Resources reporting December quarter production of 109,200 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $2,133 an ounce, Bell Potter notes the company is slightly ahead of its full year run rate. 

Production was slightly lower than forecast at Duketon, with Duketon North processing lower grade material as it heads into its last year of operation, but improved performance from Duketon South somewhat offset.

The broker feels Regis Resources has continued its solid start to the financial year, and is establishing a more consistent production track record.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.60 from $2.37.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.44
If RRL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Sell (5) -

Following 2Q production and costs (AISC) in line with consensus forecasts, Citi expects Regis Resources will meet unchanged FY24 guidance.

Production at Duketon missed the broker's forecast on lower grades and volume, while Tropicana production was a beat due to additional ounces from the Havana pit.

The Sell rating is retained on valuation while the target price rises to $1.25 from $1.20 after the broker updates forecasts for the hedge book.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: minus $0.91 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

Regis Resources' Dec Q report showed production and costs both in line with Macquarie's estimates, while cash build was softer due to accelerated capex.

The company has retained FY24 guidance and is comfortably on track. The broker expects production and costs in the middle of their respective ranges.

McPhillamys' approvals and an updated study present key catalysts for the stock ahead of a final investment decision for the project in the June Q.

Outperform and $2.50 target retained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.34
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Production and costs (AISC) in the 2Q for Regis Resources were in line with forecasts by consensus and UBS, while FY24 guidance for both was unchanged.

Following an around 20% share price rally in the past two months, the broker downgrades the rating to Sell from Neutral, and also suggests there are better alternatives within the Gold sector.

The target rises to $1.90 from $1.86.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Neutral (3) -

St Barbara released its Dec Q results with production, costs and closing cash all softer than Macquarie expected. Despite the soft start FY24 guidance has been retained at Simberi with grade excepted to progressively improve in the second half.

St Barbara is looking at low-capex solutions to develop Simberi's sulphide resources using Ultra-Fine Grind technology, which is not in the broker's base case.

On the smaller closing cash position, target falls to 19c from 28c, Neutral retained.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.015
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Santos' quarterly production and revenue were broadly in line with Macquarie, with realised pricing a little lower and free cash flow sequentially higher.

The broker has increased its percentage inclusion for Barossa in its valuation to 80% from 50%. The next 12 months of progress will be crucial for the project now that the activist-led litigation and regulator logjam appear to be resolved.

PNG LNG spot cargoes will be lifted from January which should appeal to Woodside Energy ((WDS)), Macquarie suggests.

Target rises to $9.95 from $9.60, Outperform retained.

Target price is $9.95 Current Price is $7.67 Difference: $2.28
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.39, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Accumulate (2) -

Q4 production for Santos was slightly lower than Ord Minnett expected, offset by a beat against expectation for average pricing.

Given the share price remains at a deep discount to the broker's valuation, the analyst understands management's preference to supplement a comparatively low dividend payout ratio with share buybacks.

The analyst believes the share price discount to valuation may be narrowed by management's effective delivery of the Barosssa project.

The Accumulate rating and $12.30 target are unchanged.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $7.67 Difference: $4.63
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.39, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

West African Resources released its quarterly report with most production metrics released prior, while costs were -10% below Macquarie's estimate.

2023 guidance was comfortably met, with 2024 guidance to be provided in the coming weeks. Net cash of $120m was below the broker's $181m estimate due to a higher spend on Kiaka development and $25m of sales receipt timing.

Outperform and $1.60 target retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.66
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WDS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett explains steady 4Q production for Woodside Energy benefited from completed North West Shelf and Shenzi maintenance in the 3Q, offset by lower Bass Strait production and seasonally lower demand.

As expected by the analyst, the company produced 48mmboe at a 7% higher average price than in the 3Q.

Management provided preliminary 2024 guidance for production of between 185-195mmboe and capex of US$5-5.5bn.

The broker retains a Buy rating, on the view shares are materially undervalued, and a $45 target price.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $31.18 Difference: $13.82
If WDS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.53, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources