Australian Broker Call

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September 23, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 07:14 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
FMG - Fortescue Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
GOR - Gold Road Resources Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform Macquarie
MFG - Magellan Financial Group Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
NCM - Newcrest Mining Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Macquarie
NST - Northern Star Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform Macquarie
PAN - Panoramic Resources Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Macquarie
PRU - Perseus Mining Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform Macquarie
SAR - Saracen Mineral Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform Macquarie
WAF - West African Resources Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $29.15

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

The recovery in the US land-based business is occurring faster than Citi previously expected. Around 90% of slot machines which have remained on the floor are being activated and Aristocrat Leisure is outperforming peers given its superior game performance.

Citi also expects outright purchases to begin picking up in FY21. Estimates are upgraded as a result and the broker retains a Buy rating. Target rises to $34.60 from $30.10.

Target price is $34.60 Current Price is $29.15 Difference: $5.45
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.61, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 67.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.1, implying annual growth of -36.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 111.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.3, implying annual growth of 57.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates ALL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett remains confident that the returns hurdle and track record of Aristocrat Leisure could mean around $7.60 a share in value is added to the sum-of-the-parts valuation with the entry to iGaming.

The broker has incorporated the company's entry into the iGaming market by the second half of FY21.

Estimates are also increased because of the earlier-than-expected re-opening of US casinos. Accumulate retained. Target rises to $38.60 from $28.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $38.60 Current Price is $29.15 Difference: $9.45
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.61, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.1, implying annual growth of -36.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.3, implying annual growth of 57.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BGL  BELLEVUE GOLD LTD

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $1.08

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US, notes Macquarie and expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD. 

Macquarie believes the impact of the price forecast uplift on Bellevue Gold's earnings will be short lived and holds onto its Outperform rating and the target price of $1.30. 

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.22
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 120.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 108.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP GROUP

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $36.67

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Iron ore prices have pulled back from US$130/t to circa US$120/t but Macquarie reassures the fundamentals for the commodity remain robust. Moreover, Australian shipments remain strong at around/above their guidance ranges while Vale shipments appear to lag.

The broker is positive on BHP Group due to its strong cash flow yields and earnings upgrade momentum.

Outperform rating and target price of $44 reaffirmed.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $36.67 Difference: $7.33
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.36, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 286.01 cents and EPS of 357.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 278.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 192.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 250.63 cents and EPS of 314.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 267.3, implying annual growth of -4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT  BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $1.37

Macquarie rates BPT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

Macquarie reaffirms its Outperform rating, with the target price decreasing to $1.65 from $1.70. 

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.28
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 35.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of -34.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.10 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 27.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHC  CHARTER HALL GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $12.14

UBS rates CHC as Neutral (3) -

UBS contemplates the potential opportunity for Charter Hall Group in education facilities/universities.

As a result of covid-19, university revenues are much diminished and existing real estate holdings are likely to be considered as funding options, assesses the broker. As a result, the analyst expects to see the group partner with universities for future 'Innovation Precincts'.

It's considered this will drive an increased development pipeline and long term funds under management (FUM) growth. UBS forecasts 7% asset under management (AUM) growth per year but doesn't explicitly forecast increased FUM from the education sector.

The Neutal rating and target price of $12.25 are unchanged.

Target price is $12.25 Current Price is $12.14 Difference: $0.11
If CHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.75, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 37.80 cents and EPS of 54.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.0, implying annual growth of -26.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 40.10 cents and EPS of 58.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.3, implying annual growth of 13.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHN  CHALICE GOLD MINES LIMITED

Industrial Metals

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Overnight Price: $2.27

Macquarie rates CHN as Outperform (1) -

An electromagnetic survey by Chalice Gold Mines confirmed the potential for Julimar to extend into the State Forrest and identified three targets within the State Forrest. 

Macquarie assesses the Julimar discovery to be shaping up as one of the most significant in recent years. The strength of the survey prompts the broker to add about $100m to its valuation, leading to a 9% lift in its price target.

Outperform rating retained and target price increases to $2.50 from $2.30.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.23
If CHN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 58.21.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 63.06.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA  CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $3.06

Macquarie rates CIA as Outperform (1) -

Iron ore prices have pulled back from US$130/t to circa US$120/t but Macquarie reassures the fundamentals for the commodity remain robust. Moreover, Australian shipments remain strong at around/above their guidance ranges while Vale shipments appear to lag.

The broker considers Champion Iron's cash flow yield attractive and retains its Outperform rating with the target price increasing to $3.80 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.74
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 78.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.88.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 52.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.78.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM  CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $2.02

Macquarie rates CMM as Underperform (5) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US, notes Macquarie and expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD.

Capricorn Metals' Underperform rating remains unchanged with the target price increasing to $1.70 from $1.50. 

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 101.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.71.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE  COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $0.35

Macquarie rates COE as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

Neutral rating retained with the target price increasing slightly to $0.37 from $0.36.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.02
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.43, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 360.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of 2300.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COH  COCHLEAR LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $194.03

UBS rates COH as Sell (5) -

UBS assumes a less favourable cost leverage scenario than the market, and consequently values Cochlear -10% below the current share price.

The broker's analysis reveals uncertainty whether sales and marketing initiatives will result in a lower incremental spend going forward.

The historic rate of Cochlear implants (CI) has relied on the company's continued investment in such operating costs, notes the analyst. However, it's considered that a driver of this continued investment has been the higher cost associated with converting an older CI recipient versus a paediatric candidate. 

As a result, UBS calculates significant profit (NPAT) margin expansion is unlikely, considering adults in the developed world will likely form the vast majority of recipients over the next five to ten years.

The Sell rating and target price of $175 are unchanged.

Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $194.03 Difference: minus $19.03 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $201.33, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 136.00 cents and EPS of 337.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 328.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 109.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 61.6.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 279.00 cents and EPS of 464.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 459.3, implying annual growth of 40.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 308.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CVN  CARNARVON PETROLEUM LIMITED

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Overnight Price: $0.19

Macquarie rates CVN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

Outperform rating remains intact with the target price decreasing to $0.30 from $0.35. 

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.11
If CVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 63.33.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 47.50.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DCN  DACIAN GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $0.34

Macquarie rates DCN as Underperform (5) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US, notes Macquarie and expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD.

Dacian Gold's Underperform rating remains with the target price increasing slightly to $0.34 from $0.30. 

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0
If DCN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.58.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.89.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS  DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $8.57

Ord Minnett rates DXS as Accumulate (2) -

Office valuations are surprising to the upside, Ord Minnett notes, and foreign capital is the main driver. Dexus is trading in deep-value territory, in the broker's view, at -20% below net tangible asset value.

The broker notes press reports which indicate the company is progressing the sale of several key properties in Sydney and Melbourne. The sales would reduce gearing, all else being equal, to the lowest among the large-cap A-REITs.

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and $9.65 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $8.57 Difference: $1.08
If DXS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.35, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.8, implying annual growth of -32.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.1, implying annual growth of -1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN  EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $5.88

Macquarie rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US, notes Macquarie and expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD.

Evolution Mining's Neutral rating remains unchanged with the target price increasing to $6.60 from $5.60. 

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.88 Difference: $0.72
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.41, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 30.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of 60.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 26.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of 2.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $15.87

Citi rates FMG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi observes over the last week the benchmark iron ore price has softened. Investor nervousness remains high as some are concerned that China's steel production will enter a sustained downward correction.

The broker suspects as Golden Week approaches in China mills may well moderate production and defer some purchases. However, ex-China steel production is now starting to recover and will add significantly to demand for both metallurgical coal and iron ore.

Fortescue Metals should be able to provide an FY21/22 dividend of $2.05/$1.31 at a pay-out ratio of 80%, Citi calculates. The broker estimates the share price is now discounting a long-term benchmark iron ore price of US$65/t. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target is $18.50.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $15.87 Difference: $2.63
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.09, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 222.62 cents and EPS of 277.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 14.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 237.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 14.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 143.01 cents and EPS of 179.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.0, implying annual growth of -32.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 185.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Iron ore prices have pulled back from US$130/t to circa US$120/t but Macquarie reassures the fundamentals for the commodity remain robust. Moreover, Australian shipments remain strong at around/above their guidance ranges while Vale shipments appear to lag.

The broker considers Fortescue Metals Group its preferred pick and notes the stock is trading on a free cash flow yield of 12% (FY21), expected to increase to 17% in the spot price scenario. 

Outperform rating maintained with the target price reducing to $19.50 from $20.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $15.87 Difference: $3.63
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.09, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 209.00 cents and EPS of 264.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 13.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 237.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 14.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 146.00 cents and EPS of 181.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.0, implying annual growth of -32.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 185.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOR  GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $1.59

Macquarie rates GOR as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -

Macquarie has upgraded its earnings forecast for the gold sector driven by an increase in its price forecasts for the commodity.

Gold Road Resources' rating is upgraded to Outperform from Underperform with the target price rising to $1.90 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.31
If GOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 10.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.74.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.43.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GUD  G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Household & Personal Products

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Overnight Price: $10.27

Citi rates GUD as Neutral (3) -

While GUD Holdings may appear attractive in the short term as it is trading at a -23% discount to Bapcor ((BAP)), Citi maintains a Neutral rating. The broker assesses long-term risks from automotive customers intending to grow private-label business.

Also, Citi suspects the company could find it challenging to generate more than modest growth over the medium term without acquisitions or a significant export strategy. Target is $12.75.

Target price is $12.75 Current Price is $10.27 Difference: $2.48
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.65, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 63.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.8, implying annual growth of 20.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 69.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.8, implying annual growth of 8.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUO  HUON AQUACULTURE GROUP LIMITED

Aquaculture

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Overnight Price: $2.92

Credit Suisse rates HUO as Resume coverage with Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse resumes coverage with a Neutral rating and $3.35 target. The broker finds encouraging improvements in operating performance following prior environmental and cost problems.

The recent equity raising will also reduce gearing and balance sheet risk. Nevertheless the broker is aware of some uncertainties in the operating environment and assesses Huon Aquaculture needs to prove itself, given a volatile earnings track record.

The $64m underwritten institutional placement was completed at $3 a share with a non-underwritten share purchase plan up to $4m.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.43
If HUO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.08.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 35.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.17.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR  KAROON ENERGY LTD

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $0.74

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

Outperform rating maintained with the target price rising to $1.37 from $1.25. 

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.63
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.36, suggesting upside of 83.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFG  MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $54.80

Morgans rates MFG as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Magellan Financial Group has announced an investment into a newly established financial services firm named ‘Barrenjoey Capital Partners’. The new firm will provide full service institutional corporate advisory and broking.

The Group’s investment includes $90m cash, 1.2m Magellan Financial Group shares (around $68m) and a $50m working capital facility. The group will have a 40% economic interest. While this is a deviation from the funds management strategy, the start-up is assessed by Morgans as a relatively low outlay versus group capital.

In the core business, steady net inflows have been recorded in the financial year so far, reports the broker. The flows outlook is considered supported by partnership initiatives and the product pipeline.

The analyst views the group as having a quality earnings base and solid growth potential in the core business. Additionally, there is optionality from new ventures and the group is trading on a reasonable multiple, explains Morgans.

The broker views the group’s short-term valuation as reasonable, with strong prospects to deliver future sustainable growth. Market direction and performance fees are considered the near-term forecast swing factors.

The rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target price is decreased to $61.05 from $64.05.

Target price is $61.05 Current Price is $54.80 Difference: $6.25
If MFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.32, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 226.00 cents and EPS of 250.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.7, implying annual growth of 10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 221.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 251.00 cents and EPS of 274.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 272.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 244.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGX  MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $0.74

Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -

Iron ore prices have pulled back from US$130/t to circa US$120/t but Macquarie reassures the fundamentals for the commodity remain robust. Moreover, Australian shipments remain strong at around/above their guidance ranges while Vale shipments appear to lag.

The broker is positive on the iron-ore miners and notes Mount Gibson boasts an free cash flow yield of more than 10% at spot prices.

Outperform rating retained with the target price reducing to $0.95 from $1.05.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.21
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.87.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 13.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.78.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $25.17

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Iron ore prices have pulled back from US$130/t to circa US$120/t but Macquarie reassures the fundamentals for the commodity remain robust. Moreover, Australian shipments remain strong at around/above their guidance ranges while Vale shipments appear to lag.

The broker considers Mineral Resources as its preferred mid-cap pick and maintains its Outperform rating. The target price is reduced to $31.60 from $33.5. 

Target price is $31.60 Current Price is $25.17 Difference: $6.43
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.77, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 357.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 297.8, implying annual growth of -44.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 124.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 107.00 cents and EPS of 234.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 209.1, implying annual growth of -29.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $31.47

Macquarie rates NCM as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie has upgraded its earnings forecast for the gold sector driven by an increase in its commodity price forecasts.

Newcrest Mining's earnings forecasts between FY21-25 have seen a strong upgrade mostly due to Cadia's low costs and copper exposure combined with less exposure to the AUD, observes the broker.   

Macquarie upgrades its rating to Neutral from Underperform with the target price rising to $35 from $28.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $31.47 Difference: $3.53
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.17, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 44.23 cents and EPS of 212.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 197.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 28.75 cents and EPS of 162.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 182.9, implying annual growth of -7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC  NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $1.21

Citi rates NHC as Neutral (3) -

Results fell short of Citi's estimates, with a reported loss of -$157m in FY20 given pre-tax impairments of -$347m. There was no further update on New Acland stage 3.

Citi finds the valuation multiples and dividend yield attractive for FY23 but for coal exposure prefers Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) which trades at a deep discount.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $1.30 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.09
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.28, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 595.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 14.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of 3450.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates NHC as Neutral (3) -

Net profit fell to $84m in FY20, well below expectations. Credit Suisse finds it prudent the dividend has been scrapped and cash flow preservation is the focus.

Bengalla remains the key and recent moves in the thermal coal price should help return it to a free cash flow position, although the company is going to need a catalyst such as the approval of Acland stage 3 to move the share price materially, in the broker's view. Neutral rating and $1.40 target retained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.19
If NHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.28, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 69.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 595.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 62.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of 3450.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates NHC as Underperform (5) -

New Hope Corp's FY20 results were weaker than expected due to higher costs and the impairments on New Acland. Macquarie points out New Acland Stage 3 is in limbo and has not been included in its forecast with stage 2 currently ramping down.

The broker expects headwinds in the near-term from ramping down of operations at New Acland and the weakness in thermal coal price. Macquarie believes there is material earnings downside risk with FY21-23 earnings shifting to a loss in a spot price scenario.

The broker retains its Underperform rating with the target price reducing to $0.90 from $1.1.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.28, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 595.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.60 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of 3450.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST  NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $13.90

Macquarie rates NST as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -

Macquarie has upgraded its earnings forecast for the gold sector driven by an increase in its commodity price forecasts. Northern Star Resources is one of its preferred picks in the sector.

Progress at the Super Pit and production performance are the key catalysts for Northern Star in FY21, according to the broker.

Macquarie upgrades its rating to Outperform from Underperform with the target price rising to $16.40 from $13.30.

Target price is $16.40 Current Price is $13.90 Difference: $2.5
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.48, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 29.50 cents and EPS of 77.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.4, implying annual growth of 110.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 79.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.4, implying annual growth of 19.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWS  NEWS CORPORATION

Print, Radio & TV

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Overnight Price: $20.67

Morgan Stanley rates NWS as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley considers the disclosure by News Corp in the briefing on compliance/Dow Jones/Wall Street Journal was incrementally positive. This revealed these businesses are becoming more digital and more subscription based.

The broker increases its valuation for Dow Jones to US$3.2bn and it now represents around 30% of the total enterprise value of News Corp America.

While the base case assumes 100% ownership is maintained for these businesses, Morgan Stanley notes the company has a stated objective to simplify its structure so it remains plausible these assets could be sold or revamped.

Underweight rating and US$11.49 target maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Current Price is $20.67. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $24.14, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 39.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 48.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.0, implying annual growth of 61.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $4.49

Macquarie rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie's revised oil price predicts the price to be about US$48/bbl in the first half of 2021 while its second half price forecast has dropped to circa US$43/bbl.

Earnings estimates for FY21-22 have been downgraded to reflect the oil price reduction and lower expected sales.

The broker expects a 40% recovery in both electricity prices and gas/oil prices from current levels although evidence of the rebound is yet to emerge.

Neutral rating maintained with the target reducing to $5.35 from $6.01.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: $0.86
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.39, suggesting upside of 39.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.3, implying annual growth of 331.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 24.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of 47.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH  OIL SEARCH LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $2.78

Macquarie rates OSH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

Oil Search is Macquarie's preferred pick and the broker reaffirms its Outperform rating and the target price of $3.45.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.67
If OSH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 278.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 135.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.98 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of 471.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PAN  PANORAMIC RESOURCES LIMITED

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $0.11

Macquarie rates PAN as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Upside risk to copper price continues to strengthen, assesses Macquarie. However, Panoramic Resources is expected to report earnings losses in FY21-22. Its operations predominantly involve nickel.

Oz Minerals ((OZL)), Western Areas ((WSA)) and Nickel Mines ((NIC)) are Macquarie's preferred picks while the broker downgrades its rating for Panoramic Resources to Underperform from Neutral due to its recent share price strength.

Target rises slightly to $0.08 from $0.07.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.71.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.23.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPH  PUSHPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $7.15

Credit Suisse rates PPH as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse expects FY21 to be "remarkable" with a shift to digital donations accelerating significantly and the platform becoming indispensable to clients.

While acceleration over the last six months may be a pulling forward of demand and creating a challenging base to cycle in FY22, the broker still envisages a significant opportunity.

Credit Suisse also expects Pushpay to exceed FY21 guidance of US$50-54m (EBITDAF), forecasting US$57.2m. Outperform retained. Target rises to NZ$9.30 from NZ$6.54.

Current Price is $7.15. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting downside of -41.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of 25.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRU  PERSEUS MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $1.46

Macquarie rates PRU as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -

Macquarie has upgraded its earnings forecast for the gold sector driven by an increase in its commodity price forecasts.This outlook drives an increase in the rating and target price for Perseus Mining 

The broker upgrades its rating to Outperform from Underperform with the target rising to $1.70 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.24
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.63, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of 6.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 141.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $97.00

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Iron ore prices have pulled back from US$130/t to circa US$120/t but Macquarie reassures the fundamentals for the commodity remain robust. Moreover, Australian shipments remain strong at around/above their guidance ranges while Vale shipments appear to lag.

The broker is positive on Rio Tinto, highlighting the stock is trading on a free cash flow yield of 12% (2021) which is expected to increase to 13-14% in the spot price scenario. 

Outperform rating maintained with the target price reducing to $113 from $114.

Target price is $113.00 Current Price is $97.00 Difference: $16
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $106.64, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 701.75 cents and EPS of 1110.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 932.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 573.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 759.25 cents and EPS of 1084.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 929.2, implying annual growth of -0.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 636.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL  REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $5.22

Macquarie rates RRL as Underperform (5) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US and Macquarie expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD.

Underperform rating for Regis Resources reaffirmed with the target price increasing to $5.20 from $4.80.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.22 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.70, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 56.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.5, implying annual growth of 54.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 49.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.5, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RSG  RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $0.95

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Today's general update on the gold sector (see also elsewhere) has kept Macquarie's Outperform rating in place, with the price target lifting by 10c to $1.50 on positive impact to earnings estimates.

The price target in GBP is 0.83.

Resolute Mining's profitability is expected to jump significantly in 2021.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.55
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.20 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.88.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.40 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.52.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SAR  SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $5.04

Macquarie rates SAR as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -

Macquarie has upgraded its earnings forecast for the gold sector driven by an increase in its commodity price forecasts. Saracen Mineral Holdings is one of its preferred picks in the sector.

Progress at the Super Pit and production performance are the key catalysts for Saracen in FY21, according to the broker.

Macquarie upgrades its rating to Outperform from Underperform with the target price rising to $6.10 from $4.70.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.04 Difference: $1.06
If SAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 34.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 27.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.7, implying annual growth of 16.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SBM  ST BARBARA LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $3.08

Macquarie rates SBM as Underperform (5) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US, notes Macquarie and expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD.

Macquarie keeps St Barbara's Underperform rating intact with the target price increasing slightly to $3.40 from $3.30. 

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: $0.32
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.6, implying annual growth of 97.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 36.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.1, implying annual growth of 15.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL  SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $33.28

Ord Minnett rates SHL as Hold (3) -

The federal government has extended current rates for coronavirus testing and funding and Ord Minnett observes Sonic Healthcare is likely to be a key beneficiary.

Testing rates have also increased in Germany and trends in the US remain positive albeit well below capacity.

The broker revises earnings forecast accordingly, with a 4% increase to FY21 and FY22. The broker retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $35.40 from $34.00.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $35.40 Current Price is $33.28 Difference: $2.12
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.53, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 104.00 cents and EPS of 171.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.7, implying annual growth of 41.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 109.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 98.00 cents and EPS of 133.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.2, implying annual growth of -13.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLR  SILVER LAKE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $2.38

Macquarie rates SLR as Outperform (1) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US, notes Macquarie and expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD.

Silver Lake Resources' Outperform rating is retained with the target price increasing to $2.90 from $2.60. 

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.52
If SLR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.63.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.60.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $5.07

Macquarie rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

The broker believes Santos will defer its Dorado and Barossa final investment decisions to 2022, allowing more time for balance sheet repair and asset sell downs.

Macquarie holds onto its Neutral rating with the target price decreasing to $5.40 from $5.50. 

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.07 Difference: $0.33
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.54, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.32 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.9, implying annual growth of 61.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXY  SENEX ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $0.33

Macquarie rates SXY as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

Outperform rating and target price of $0.40 retained. 

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.07
If SXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.50 cents and EPS of 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.0, implying annual growth of 150.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $8.83

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes the share price has de-rated amid concerns regarding the dumping investigation in China. If interim tariffs are being imposed this should be known by October 17.

Citi opens a positive "catalyst watch" given the share price already implies a significant step-up in tariffs. The broker has reviewed wine export data and concludes there was no evidence of broad-based dumping of Australian wine in China.

A High Risk is added to the Neutral rating and the target is reduced to $10.05 from $12.65.

Target price is $10.05 Current Price is $8.83 Difference: $1.22
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.74, suggesting upside of 31.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.7, implying annual growth of 29.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 52.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.3, implying annual growth of 24.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WAF  WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $1.05

Macquarie rates WAF as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie has upgraded its earnings forecast for the gold sector driven by an increase in its commodity price forecasts. This also drives target price increases for West African Resources.

However, West African Resources' recent share price strength prompts the broker to downgrade its rating to Neutral from Outperform. Target rises to $1.20 from $1.10.  

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.15
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.05.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.14.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGX  WESTGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $2.40

Macquarie rates WGX as Outperform (1) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US, notes Macquarie and expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD.

Westgold Resources' Outperform rating remains unchanged with the target price increasing to $3.20 from $2.90. 

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.8
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.91.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.16.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $18.05

Macquarie rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

The broker assumes a Scarborough final investment decision in 2022 which is critical to Woodside Petroleum.

Macquarie reaffirms its Outperform rating with the target price decreasing to $23.50 from $24.40. 

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $18.05 Difference: $5.45
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.14, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 44.23 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 56.02 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 101.1, implying annual growth of 37.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Z1P  ZIP CO LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $6.06

Ord Minnett rates Z1P as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes solid growth in revenue and transaction value is now annualising at over $4bn. With the impact of the pandemic still driving a large uptick in e-commerce volumes, the broker expects Quadpay growth rates will remain strong.

The broker was encouraged by a number of disclosures regarding Quadpay at the recent results and expects robust outcomes going into the key retail periods of Black Friday/Cyber Monday and in the countdown to Christmas.

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and raises the target to $6.70 from $6.45.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $6.06 Difference: $0.64
If Z1P meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 89.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 147.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ALL Aristocrat Leisure $30.64 Citi 34.60 30.10 14.95%
Ord Minnett 38.60 28.50 35.44%
BPT Beach Energy $1.40 Macquarie 1.65 1.70 -2.94%
CHN CHALICE GOLD MINES $2.63 Macquarie 2.50 1.80 38.89%
CIA Champion Iron $3.06 Macquarie 3.80 3.50 8.57%
CMM Capricorn Metals $2.03 Macquarie 1.70 1.50 13.33%
COE Cooper Energy $0.36 Macquarie 0.37 0.36 2.78%
CVN Carnarvon Petroleum $0.21 Macquarie 0.30 0.35 -14.29%
DCN Dacian Gold $0.34 Macquarie 0.34 0.30 13.33%
EVN Evolution Mining $5.84 Macquarie 6.60 5.60 17.86%
FMG Fortescue $15.98 Macquarie 19.50 20.00 -2.50%
GOR Gold Road Resources $1.56 Macquarie 1.90 1.80 5.56%
HUO Huon Aquaculture $2.92 Credit Suisse 3.35 3.70 -9.46%
KAR Karoon Energy $0.74 Macquarie 1.37 1.25 9.60%
MFG Magellan Financial Group $56.06 Morgans 61.05 64.05 -4.68%
MGX Mount Gibson Iron $0.75 Macquarie 0.95 1.05 -9.52%
MIN Mineral Resources $25.42 Macquarie 31.60 33.50 -5.67%
NCM Newcrest Mining $31.88 Macquarie 35.00 28.00 25.00%
NHC New Hope Corp $1.19 Citi 1.30 1.60 -18.75%
Macquarie 0.90 1.10 -18.18%
NST Northern Star $13.61 Macquarie 16.40 13.30 23.31%
ORG Origin Energy $4.60 Macquarie 5.35 6.01 -10.98%
PAN Panoramic Resources $0.10 Macquarie 0.08 0.07 14.29%
PRU Perseus Mining $1.44 Macquarie 1.70 1.40 21.43%
RIO Rio Tinto $97.50 Macquarie 113.00 114.00 -0.88%
RRL Regis Resources $5.21 Macquarie 5.20 4.80 8.33%
RSG Resolute Mining $0.94 Macquarie 1.50 1.40 7.14%
SAR Saracen Mineral $5.04 Macquarie 6.10 4.70 29.79%
SBM St Barbara $3.04 Macquarie 3.40 3.30 3.03%
SHL Sonic Healthcare $33.91 Ord Minnett 35.40 34.00 4.12%
SLR Silver Lake Resources $2.37 Macquarie 2.90 2.60 11.54%
STO Santos $5.13 Macquarie 5.40 5.50 -1.82%
TWE Treasury Wine Estates $8.90 Citi 10.05 12.65 -20.55%
WAF West African Resources $1.03 Macquarie 1.20 1.10 9.09%
WGX Westgold Resources $2.38 Macquarie 3.20 2.90 10.34%
WPL Woodside Petroleum $18.33 Macquarie 23.50 24.40 -3.69%
Z1P Zip Co $6.24 Ord Minnett 6.70 6.45 3.88%
Summaries
ALL Aristocrat Leisure Buy - Citi Overnight Price $29.15
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $29.15
BGL Bellevue Gold Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.08
BHP BHP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $36.67
BPT Beach Energy Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.37
CHC Charter Hall Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $12.14
CHN CHALICE GOLD MINES Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.27
CIA Champion Iron Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.06
CMM Capricorn Metals Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.02
COE Cooper Energy Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.35
COH Cochlear Sell - UBS Overnight Price $194.03
CVN Carnarvon Petroleum Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.19
DCN Dacian Gold Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.34
DXS Dexus Property Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $8.57
EVN Evolution Mining Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.88
FMG Fortescue Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $15.87
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $15.87
GOR Gold Road Resources Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.59
GUD GUD Holdings Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $10.27
HUO Huon Aquaculture Resume coverage with Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.92
KAR Karoon Energy Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.74
MFG Magellan Financial Group Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $54.80
MGX Mount Gibson Iron Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.74
MIN Mineral Resources Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $25.17
NCM Newcrest Mining Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $31.47
NHC New Hope Corp Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $1.21
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.21
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.21
NST Northern Star Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $13.90
NWS News Corp Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $20.67
ORG Origin Energy Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.49
OSH Oil Search Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.78
PAN Panoramic Resources Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.11
PPH Pushpay Holdings Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $7.15
PRU Perseus Mining Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.46
RIO Rio Tinto Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $97.00
RRL Regis Resources Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.22
RSG Resolute Mining Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.95
SAR Saracen Mineral Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.04
SBM St Barbara Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.08
SHL Sonic Healthcare Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $33.28
SLR Silver Lake Resources Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.38
STO Santos Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.07
SXY Senex Energy Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.33
TWE Treasury Wine Estates Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $8.83
WAF West African Resources Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.05
WGX Westgold Resources Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.40
WPL Woodside Petroleum Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $18.05
Z1P Zip Co Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.06
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

25

2. Accumulate

3

3. Hold

13

5. Sell

8

Wednesday 23 September 2020

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.