Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates A1M as Buy (1) -

AIC Mines is seeking $65m in equity funding at 30c per share, plus a US$40m prepayment facility, as well as cash on hand ($27m), to fund the expansion of its Eloise Copper Mine in Qld, Bell Potter explains.

The process plant will increase to 1.1mtpa nameplate capacity from 725ktpa over 15–18 months, which will raise copper concentrate production to around 20ktpa.

The upgrade necessitates a -$37.6m spend on site infrastructure, with an additional -$61m required for completion of Link Drive and Stage 1 Jericho underground development.

The broker lowers EPS estimates by -24% in FY25 and -22% in FY26 on the back of equity raising dilution and the delay in the previous ramp-up schedule.

No change to Buy rating. Target price slips to 56c from 67c.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.23
If A1M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.76, suggesting upside of 153.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ADH as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Morgans notes Adairs’ FY25 group earnings (EBIT) guidance of $53.5–57.0m is about -10% below the consensus expectation, though up 1.2% year-on-year, with sales expected to rise 6.2%.

According to the broker, Adairs-branded sales remain solid, up 9.2%, but promotional intensity and a weaker currency have pressured margins, particularly in June.

Focus sales are down -7%, with earnings falling nearly -36% due to geographic exposure and weaker conversion in large-ticket items, explain the analysts.

Mocka continues to perform strongly, observes the broker, with FY25 revenue up 14.1%, supported by over 25% growth in Australia and a turnaround in New Zealand.

Despite near-term earnings softness, Morgans sees valuation support and upgrades to a Buy rating from Accumulate with a $2.60 price target, down from $2.85.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.55
If ADH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.46, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ADH as Hold (3) -

Adairs' FY25 EBIT guidance of $62-65m fell short of the consensus of $69.9m. Ord Minnett notes the company's Adairs and Mocka divisions achieve reasonable sales momentum, but weak Focus on Furniture sales and overall higher promotional activity weighed.

Weaker AUD also impacted gross profit margins and profitability. The broker highlights the company will revisit growth plans for the business at least until earnings stabilise.

Hold retained. Target cut to $2.35 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.3
If ADH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.46, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ADH as Neutral (3) -

Adairs’ FY25 sales guidance update at $614m–$618m met UBS' expectations, but increased promotional activity resulted in lower-than-anticipated earnings before interest and tax guidance at $53.5m to $57m, versus the broker's forecast of $62m and consensus at $61m.

The broker suggests gross margin pressures were the culprit, not higher operating costs, as price discounting accelerated post-Easter and the new CEO aimed to clear inventory of 'fashion' bed linen to make way for core ranges, which should be completed by the end of October.

UBS expects 1Q26 is likely to remain weak before some recovery in 2Q26. Forex headwinds are anticipated to be offset by supplier cost reductions. The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -12% for FY25 and -15% for FY26.

Neutral. Target falls to $2.25 from $2.55.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.2
If ADH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.46, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Buy (1) -

Citi hosted a meeting with Auckland International Airport's CFO and other key management staff, which revealed international traffic is recovering well and stands at around 90% of pre-covid levels, driven by Australian passengers.

New routes, including from China (Shanghai–Auckland–Buenos Aires) and Australia (Perth and Adelaide), are flagged as positive for the outlook on traffic.

At 88% of pre-covid levels, the domestic recovery has been more subdued due to softer Air New Zealand capacity, offset by capacity from Qantas Airways ((QAN)) and Jetstar, the analyst explains.

Capex plans for the domestic jet terminal remain in progress, with a recovery in duty free as passenger numbers improve, while lower interest rates are expected to assist with average debt costs.

Buy rating retained. Target price set at NZ$9.

Current Price is $7.27. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes active capital management was a key support for bank share prices in 2024, yet the broker believes this tailwind is now fading.

Three of the major banks still have approved but currently inactive buybacks in place, and  given current capital positions and market dynamics, Morgan Stanley sees limited scope for new buyback announcements.

For ANZ Bank, Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating and $26.50 target price, noting potential for the bank to
cancel the remainder of its buyback, given a modest pro forma CET1 ratio 'buffer'. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $28.21 Difference: minus $1.71 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.67, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BUB as Initiation of coverage with Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage on Bubs Australia, citing strong potential across the US, China, and domestic markets following a strategic reset under new leadership.

The broker highlights significant improvement in Bubs’ financial performance in FY24, with revenue up 27%, gross profit rising 47%, and gross margin expanding 500bps to 39% in China.

Bubs holds 0.9% market share in the US, with the potential to scale materially once permanent FDA approval is secured by November 2025, suggests the analyst. China’s $40.4bn infant milk formula (IMF) market is also viewed as a key long-term opportunity.

Shaw begins with a Buy, High Risk rating and a target price of 20c.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.045
If BUB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.17, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes Shift4's takeover of Cuscal's client SmartPay ((SMP)) is a positive for the company (Cuscal).

The acquisition will significantly improve SmartPay's long-term growth potential in the competitive Australia/NZ market, the broker reckons.

SmartPay is the company's largest customer, representing around 1.6% of the group's net operating income.

The broker considers Cuscal to be undervalued at 13x FY26 earnings, and expects it to re-rate to 15-16x.

Buy. Target unchanged at $3.75.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $0.84
If CCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Buy (1) -

Citi's early judgment is Collins Foods' FY25 performance proved better-than-expected (by 15% nevertheless) on better-than-expected gross margins, lower-than-expected D&A, and net interest.

An unexpected impairment for the Dutch business did pull the statutory net profit materially below market consensus, the broker highlights, but underlying the performance proved a positive surprise.

The trading update for the first 8 weeks of FY26 was equally below consensus, but Citi analysts take the view conditions appear to be trending in the right direction.

As consumer spending is expected to improve, a positive undertone in Citi's research is evident. Buy. Target $9.60.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $7.26 Difference: $2.34
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.68, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CKF as Buy (1) -

Judging from UBS's initial appraisal, today's FY25 result released by Collins Foods proved a positive surprise with 22% in net profit growth outpacing the broker's forecast (as well as consensus) by some 15%.

Management's guidance for FY16 is deemed as in line with market consensus given the FY25 base to compare with is higher.

It is the broker's assessment that FY26 looks "conservative". Buy. Target $9.20.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $7.26 Difference: $1.94
If CKF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.68, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KLS as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Kelsian Group bagged a transportation contract with Woodside Energy's ((WDS)) Lousiana LNG project, closely following the CP2 LNG contract it secured last week.

Ord Minnett notes the company now has four LNG transportation contracts from November 2026 to December 2029, with the latest expected to be 5% EPS accretive over FY27-29. Another LNG contract equivalent to the current LNG contracts is also a possibility.

The analyst expects the next catalyst to be a potential extension of the contract with Transport NSW, where it expects the company to negotiate a deal with a higher margin of 5-11% from 1.3% currently.

Target price lifted to $3.95 from $3.80. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy for valuation reasons.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.26
If KLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

Last week's trading update from KMD Brands came in well below UBS' expectations, with FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of NZ$15m–NZ$25m versus the broker's forecast of NZ$43m.

The downgrade appears to have resulted from weaker gross profit margins and lower sales for the Kathmandu and Oboz brands. The analyst views the Kathmandu sales as particularly disappointing, down -6% on a year earlier for 2H25 year-to-date.

Positively, there are some improving signs, with Kathmandu sales for the first two weeks of June up around 13% on the previous year due to colder weather and school holidays aligning with the ski season.

The company's net debt guidance of around NZ$70m versus below NZ$50m previously was noted, with management working to remain compliant with leverage banking covenants.

Target price is lowered to NZ$0.32 from NZ$0.37

Current Price is $0.26. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley remains cautious on Lendlease ahead of the FY25 results blackout (results due 18 August).

The broker expects FY26 EPS to fall -45% to 31.6c, citing the wind-down of Barangaroo residential profits and limited contributions until FY27 from One Circular Quay.

Development earnings could be soft, suggest the analysts, potentially limited to Victoria Cross or any new joint ventures. The broker notes gearing will fall from 27% in the first half but not materially.

A buyback remains possible only if further capital releases proceed, explains Morgan Stanley.

The broker cuts its FY26 EPS forecasts and lowers expectations for divestment profit, but leaves FY27 estimates unchanged. An Equal-weight rating and $7.12 target are maintained.

Target price is $7.12 Current Price is $5.44 Difference: $1.68
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.79, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LM8 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights compelling gold assay results from Lunnon Metals at the Cooee prospect. Intercepts includied 2m at 20.24g/t gold and 4m at 11.14g/t gold confirming a shallow, high-grade gold system beneath 1920s surface workings.

The broker notes Cooee now joins other high-priority targets, Hustler, Guiding Star, and Koombana, in the Foster Gold Belt, with all presenting material near-term value potential.

Management has commenced follow-up exploration and plans to transition Cooee into production following the Lady Herial operation. 

Shaw maintains a Buy, High Risk rating and 60c target price based solely on Lunnon’s Baker Nickel Project, attributing no current value to gold assets.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.365
If LM8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 155% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MAU as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights a 22% increase in the Mineral Resource Estimate at Magnetic Resources’ 100%-owned Lady Julie Gold Project, now totalling 40.7mt at 1.77g/t gold for 2.32moz.

Lady Julie North 4 accounts for 1.94moz of the total and has seen a 25% resource uplift, with 81% now classified as Indicated.

The resource update will feed directly into a Definitive Feasibility Study due mid-2025, note the analysts, based on a 2.7mtpa plant producing 136kozpa over an initial 10-year mine life.

Capex of -$300m and life-of-mine costs (AISC) of $1,686/oz are forecast by Shaw.

A native title agreement with the Wangkatja Tjungula Aboriginal Corporation paves the way for mining lease approvals in Q3 2025, explains the broker, with project development and financing decisions expected in H2 2025.

Shaw and Partners maintains a Buy rating with a $2.53 target price.

Target price is $2.53 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.97
If MAU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MTS as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Metcash's FY25 EBIT of $507.8m came in at the top end of guidance. While housing construction is recovering from weak levels, Citi believes the consensus is too optimistic for hardware earnings in FY26.

The analyst notes the recovery in detached housing approvals is not as robust as anticipated, meaning a more substantial recovery in Metcash's hardware business is now not expected until FY27.

The benefits of negative sentiment towards the large retailers which previously benefitted the company are expected to subside as the likes of Woolworths Group ((WOW)) work to change customer perceptions.

The broker lowered the FY26 EBIT forecast by -2% but left FY27 unchanged.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target lifted to $3.90 from $3.70 on recent share outperformance.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.1
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MTS as Outperform (1) -

Metcash reported FY25 earnings at the upper end of the June guidance range, with earnings before interest and tax coming in around 2% above Macquarie's expectations.

Notably, the improvement in Hardware was a key aspect, the analyst notes, with a rise in earnings margin by some 40bps in 2H25 versus 1H25 as improved cost management flowed through.

Margin expansion has offset sluggish like-for-like sales growth; in the first seven weeks, Total Tools slipped -2.7% and Independent Hardware grew 0.8%.

Supermarkets revenue rose around 3% ex-tobacco, which saw sales down around -20% on a year earlier. Campbells and Convenience sales rose circa 6%.

Macquarie tweaks EPS estimates by 1% for FY27 and lifts the target price by 8% to $4. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.2
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MTS as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley sees improving sentiment in Metcash’s hardware division, evident in FY25 results, but says visibility on overall recovery timing and magnitude remains limited.

FY25 results were pre-guided. Hence, underlying profit of $275.5m, and group earnings (EBIT) of $507.8m, were in line with consensus estimates.

Building approvals and easing financial conditions are positive signs, though actual building activity and sales remain subdued, explains the broker. FY25 is expected to mark trough margins for hardware earnings.

Hardware earnings (EBIT) growth of 13% in FY26-27 is already reflected in consensus estimates, suggest the analysts.

The broker lifts its EPS forecasts by 3.5% on average and raises the price target to $3.75 from $3.35.

Management sees limited opportunities for further cost out, given the business today is very lean as it relates to labour, note the analysts.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Equal-weight rating, citing the need for clearer signs of margin rebuild and benefits from the integration of the company's two hardware businesses: Independent Hardware Group and Total Tools Holdings. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MTS as Buy (1) -

Metcash delivered FY25 earnings at the top end of guidance and reported a strong early FY26 trading update, observes Ord Minnett, with food sales growth outperforming expectations.

The food division lifted second-half earnings despite a -23% plunge in tobacco sales, supported by solid growth in private label and store refurbishments, highlights the broker.

Hardware earnings exceeded the analyst's forecast with tighter cost controls and improving margins, while FY26 sales have started positively, up 1.3% year-on-year.

Net debt fell to $577m versus the broker’s $921m forecast, driven by strong cash flow and reduced capex, with lower FY26 investment likely to support further gains.

Ord Minnett trims its EPS forecasts by up to -2.2% over FY26-28 due to amortisation changes but still expects an 11% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). The target price is increased to $4.60 from $4.10. Buy retained.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.8
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MTS as Buy (1) -

Metcash's FY25 result came in at the upper end of guidance, UBS details, with Food & Liquor above and Hardware below the analyst's expectations.

Sales in the first seven weeks of FY26 are up 4.7%, composed of growth of 2.7% excluding Tobacco and ex-Superior Foods. Hardware sales and earnings (EBITDA) were basically flat in FY25, with Total Tools weak and Independent Hardware showing some improvement.

UBS tweaks EPS estimates, with no change to the Buy rating. Target lifts to $4.25 from $4. The analyst continues to like the risk/reward on the stock despite the share price appreciation of 27.5% since the April low.

Growth from Hardware, which has been challenging, is expected to eventually recover, and the Food & Liquor business remains resilient.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.45
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RMC as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter details the extent of recent changes at Resimac Group, including a new CEO, the acquisition of Westpac's ((WBC)) $1.5bn auto portfolio, and a special dividend per share of 12c announced in June following a review of excess capital.

ASIC is also undertaking legal proceedings regarding the treatment of customers in hardship over 2022–2024.

The analyst believes Resimac has scope to grow its novated leasing business and maintains a robust but small exposure to the mortgage market. Both provide optionality for growth, the broker stresses.

Bell Potter has included the $1.5bn loan book and lowered EPS estimates by -10.3% for FY25 and -16% for FY26.

No change to Buy rating. Target price slips to $1 from $1.10.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.165
If RMC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.00, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SHA as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights accelerating momentum at Shape Australia, with FY25 revenue now guided to $950-960m, earnings (EBITDA) to $32-33m, and profit to $20.5-21.5m.

The broker attributes growth to disciplined project selection, tight cost control, and rising exposure to non-office sectors. The backlog has reached a record circa $460m, supported by a $4bn pipeline and a 46% tender win rate.

Modular contracts are set to exceed $70m in FY25, double FY24, with regional expansion delivering more than $115m in revenue. The analyst notes management’s push into health, defence, and education supports both margin uplift and diversification.

Shaw maintains a Buy rating and lifts the price target to $5.40 from $5.00.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $1.22
If SHA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SIG as Hold (3) -

Morgans has refreshed its long-term assumptions for Sigma Healthcare following index inclusions and the Chemist Warehouse merger.

While maintaining a fundamentally positive view, the broker considers the current valuation stretched and retains a Hold rating.

The analysts remove a previously applied 30% liquidity premium and increase long-term growth assumptions, lifting the company's discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation.

Using a blended DCF and EV/EBIT method, Morgans arrives at a $3.12 target price. According to FNArena's database the prior target was $3.00.

The broker expects FY25 results will be complex due to the change in year-end and partial contribution from legacy Sigma. Normalised EBIT around $837.5m is forecast, including Chemist Warehouse’s strong momentum and partial Sigma contribution.

Target price is $3.12 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.98, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SMP as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter downgrades SmartPay to Hold from Buy with a lower target price of $1.13, down from $1.30, following the announcement that Shift4 will acquire 100% of its capital at NZ$1.20.

The offer represents a premium of 47% to the three-month weighted average price, with the board unanimously recommending that shareholders accept the offer in the absence of a superior proposal.

Target price is $1.13 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.1
If SMP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Returning from Treasury Wine Estates' investor briefings, Citi analysts were not surprised management has downgraded guidance for Penfolds' FY26 EBITS.

In addition, US weakness and below target outlook is equally noted as "disappointing", but also not surprising.

What did surprised was the announcement of a share buyback given the direction of earnings. Citi analysts take the view the latter must be a sign the board is comfortable that conditions won't deteriorate further.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $8.68.

Target price is $8.68 Current Price is $8.07 Difference: $0.61
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.03, suggesting upside of 25.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources