Australian Broker Call
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April 27, 2020
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CAR - | Carsales.Com | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
CDP - | Carindale Property | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
DMP - | Domino's Pizza | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
EVN - | Evolution Mining | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
HPI - | Hotel Property Investments | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
LEP - | Ale Property Group | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold | Ord Minnett |
ABC ADELAIDE BRIGHTON LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $2.38
Credit Suisse rates ABC as Underperform (5) -
Credit Suisse assesses a decade of vertical integration has resulted in cement & lime being 49% of revenue and concrete products 9%, which history suggests, combined, are ex-growth.
The broker reduces net profit estimates for FY20 by -11% and FY21 by -23%. The broker retains a preference for Boral ((BLD)) which offers better value and higher growth potential post the economic recovery.
Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.10 from $2.60.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 15.15 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.6, implying annual growth of 100.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 13.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 12.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.65
Credit Suisse rates ALX as Neutral (3) -
Traffic over the last week of March was down over -70%. Management has not disclosed the performance of the first half of April but Credit Suisse doubts this will show an improvement.
The broker's base case scenario is that restrictions are mostly lifted by September 2020, and forecasts a potential breach of covenants on the EUR350m MIPL facility.
While it may be possible to re-negotiate or re-finance a facility, an equity raising cannot be ruled out. Dulles Greenway is unlikely to provide any distributions until the end of 2023, in the broker's view.
2020 estimates for operating earnings (EBITDA) are downgraded by -31% and the 2020 dividend is reduced by -50%. Neutral maintained. Target is lowered to $6.00 from $7.90.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $0.35
If ALX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.41, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 3.98 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of 548.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 19.31 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.4, implying annual growth of 229.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ALX as Outperform (1) -
At this stage the broker is forecasting a -70% drop in car and -45% in truck traffic on the APRR for another three months but notes as lockdowns begin to be eased from mid-May, activity should improve. This would reduce the risk around debt covenants.
The broker suggests that while the potential of limited yield for the next 12 months is a negative, this is well and truly offset by the potential of a growth option from a concession extension.
The company's leverage is lower than peers but its structure creates uncertainty, the broker notes, however this can be substantially addressed with cash retention. Target falls to $6.90 from $7.14, Outperform retained.
Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $1.25
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.41, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of 548.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 94.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.4, implying annual growth of 229.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Equal-weight (3) -
Market volatility and larger outflows are expected to delay AMP's recovery. The life sale is on track for completion in June.
The recession is expected to weigh on retail flows and the broker envisages a further -$1bn of corporate super redemptions in FY20.
The broker also notes that AMP is investigating divestment of NZ operations and, while the allocation of potential proceeds is not clear, one option could be to double up on Australian Wealth business.
Rating is Equal-weight and target is reduced $1.40 from $1.70. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.06
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 3.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.3, implying annual growth of 2.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.48
Morgans rates AMX as Add (1) -
The company will purchase Spookfish, one of its smaller competitors. This will add scale to the subscription aerial imagery business, MetroMap, which remains in its early stages of development.
Morgans revises forecasts and assumes 90% revenue retention at Spookfish. Aerometrex has also gained a new customer in the US for its 3D modelling services. Morgans maintains an Add rating and $1.99 target.
Target price is $1.99 Current Price is $1.48 Difference: $0.51
If AMX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 1.50 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 2.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CAR CARSALES.COM LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $13.52
Ord Minnett rates CAR as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -
The company has indicated leads have started to show signs of improvement recently, while traffic and inventory are solid. The South Korean business has also held up well although conditions are deteriorating in Brazil.
While the business is not immune to the current situation, Carsales.com is a critical channel for dealers, private sellers and original equipment manufacturers, the broker points out.
Therefore, Ord Minnett expects the business will rebound well following the crisis and upgrades to Buy from Hold. Target is reduced to $15.72 from $18.98.
Target price is $15.72 Current Price is $13.52 Difference: $2.2
If CAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.67, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 38.50 cents and EPS of 44.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 35.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 45.30 cents and EPS of 53.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.24
Ord Minnett rates CDP as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -
Ord Minnett expects 2020 rents to be severely affected by the pandemic and then stabilise in 2021, albeit below 2019 levels.
A-REITs are far more focused on cash flow and balance sheet preservation than short-term distributions, hence the broker expects deferred rent earnings will be retained.
Carindale Property is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate and the target is lowered to $3.50 from $3.60.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.26
If CDP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.32
Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -
The broker has assessed the outlook for Charter Hall Group in the context of super fund withdrawals, declining property valuations and slowing transactional activity.
Allowed super withdrawals of $20,000 could add up to $50bn in total, it has been suggested, but while this is clearly a near term headwind, longer term the broker sees direct investment in real estate as supportive.
The broker has marked to market for net tangible assets, leading to a target cut to $9.11 from $9.61. The funds management business is trading just below its historical PE. Outperform retained.
Target price is $9.11 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: $1.79
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.48, suggesting upside of 70.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.70 cents and EPS of 65.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.5, implying annual growth of 33.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 38.20 cents and EPS of 42.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.4, implying annual growth of -16.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DMP DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $50.83
Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Equal-weight (3) -
Domino's Pizza's update suggests to Morgan Stanley the pandemic will be a net negative for second half earnings, given disrupted markets.
However, the stock is down -23% since its peak, indicating the outlook is at least partially priced in.
Equal-weight and $57 target retained. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $57.00 Current Price is $50.83 Difference: $6.17
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $55.43, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 182.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 174.2, implying annual growth of 28.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 200.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.0, implying annual growth of 13.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates DMP as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
Morgans assesses the trading update was "reasonable". Franchisee support is likely to step up as Domino's Pizza helps individual stores and regions where the sales performance has been affected by the pandemic.
This is likely to affect margins in the short term but the broker considers underpinning franchises is the right move. The balance sheet is robust and medium-term targets were reiterated.
Morgans believes earnings can remain reasonably defensive throughout the crisis and bounce back quickly afterwards. Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target reduced to $55.57 from $57.19.
Target price is $55.57 Current Price is $50.83 Difference: $4.74
If DMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $55.43, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 165.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 174.2, implying annual growth of 28.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 134.00 cents and EPS of 191.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.0, implying annual growth of 13.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates DMP as Accumulate (2) -
Domino's Pizza has indicated it would provide franchisees support, relaxing payment terms and providing additional advertising.
Ord Minnett notes same-store sales growth is strong in Germany and Japan, weaker in the Benelux countries and variable in Australia, while closures in France and New Zealand have been headwinds.
Still, Ord Minnett considers the value proposition positions the business well for weaker consumer demand and remains confident about same-store sales growth in Europe and Japan. Accumulate rating and $57.50 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $57.50 Current Price is $50.83 Difference: $6.67
If DMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $55.43, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 162.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 174.2, implying annual growth of 28.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 200.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.0, implying annual growth of 13.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates DMP as Neutral (3) -
UBS found the trading update a little softer than expected. Mixed trading and pressure on costs have resulted in increased support across the group in the form of marketing and equipment. UBS suspects this will affect margins.
Cash flow is also likely to be softer because of increased payment terms for those experiencing stress. Still, the broker believes the business will emerge from the pandemic with a higher share and favourable longer-term outlook.
Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $50.80 from $51.00.
Target price is $50.80 Current Price is $50.83 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $55.43, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 120.20 cents and EPS of 171.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 174.2, implying annual growth of 28.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 136.40 cents and EPS of 194.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.0, implying annual growth of 13.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.32
Credit Suisse rates EVN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Evolution Mining appears confident that June quarter will deliver higher production and Credit Suisse considers it on track to attain FY20 guidance. Free cash flow appears strong and superior to peers.
There is also no material disruption from the pandemic to date. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on the back of the broker's gold price deck. Target is raised to $4.85 from $4.60.
Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.65, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.48 cents and EPS of 23.97 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 73.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.71 cents and EPS of 31.04 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 40.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HPI HOTEL PROPERTY INVESTMENTS
Infra & Property Developers
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Overnight Price: $2.35
Ord Minnett rates HPI as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
Ord Minnett expects 2020 rents to be severely affected by the pandemic and then stabilise in 2021, albeit below 2019 levels.
A-REITs are far more focused on cash flow and balance sheet preservation than short-term distributions, hence the broker expects deferred rent earnings will be retained.
The broker upgrades Hotel Property Investments to Accumulate from Hold. Target is raised to $2.70 from $2.50.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.35
If HPI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.53
UBS rates IFM as Buy (1) -
The $85m capital raising, including a $75m institutional placement and $15m share purchase plan, may be considered opportunistic but UBS assesses it provides scope for potential acquisitions.
The broker likes the business model, which has a degree of resilience, but recognises automotive original equipment manufacturers are experiencing extreme difficulty which could provide some headwinds over the short term.
The broker considers the stock attractive for a company with an ability to deliver earnings growth of over 20%. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.05 from $2.40.
Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.52
If IFM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IPH as Outperform (1) -
The GFC experience suggested patent filing volumes and revenues remain fairly defensive, and in the case of the virus, a typical 24-31 month lag time implies IPH can dislocate from current market activity, the broker notes. Softness in FY20-21 will also be offset by currency tailwinds.
While not immune, IPH remains the broker's preferred pick in the space. Softer revenues lead to a target cut to $9.60 from $10.65, Outperform retained.
Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $7.27 Difference: $2.33
If IPH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 30.20 cents and EPS of 39.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 34.70 cents and EPS of 41.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JHX JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $18.67
Ord Minnett rates JHX as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett assesses now is one of those times to purchase the stock as the share price appears to be factoring in very conservative views.
While assessing the balance sheet is "relatively full" and skipping the final dividend would be prudent, the broker does not believe this should be a significant impediment for investors.
The broker maintains an Accumulate rating and $25 target.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $18.67 Difference: $6.33
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.83, suggesting upside of 59.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 60.62 cents and EPS of 118.29 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 127.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 72.45 cents and EPS of 82.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.1, implying annual growth of -14.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.09
Ord Minnett rates LEP as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -
Ord Minnett expects 2020 rents to be severely affected by the pandemic and then stabilise in 2021, albeit below 2019 levels.
A-REITs are far more focused on cash flow and balance sheet preservation than short-term distributions, hence the broker expects deferred rent earnings will be retained.
ALE Property is downgraded to Lighten from Hold and the target lowered to $3.80 from $4.00.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If LEP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MAI MAINSTREAM GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
Diversified Financials
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Overnight Price: $0.41
Morgans rates MAI as Add (1) -
Funds under management were broadly flat in the March quarter. Morgans considers the quarterly performance resilient, given market volatility.
The broker downgrades FY20 and FY21 estimates for earnings per share by -6% and -10% respectively, amid more conservative growth assumptions because of the pandemic.
Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.61 from $0.68. The balance sheet remains strong and management expects to be comfortably positive on free cash flow over the near term.
Target price is $0.61 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.2
If MAI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 4.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.11
Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Equal-weight (3) -
As office vacancies increase and demand falters, Morgan Stanley assesses the timing and returns from projects may be less certain and less lucrative compared with recent years.
In addition, the broker finds it hard to become more positive because of a softening residential market and an under-appreciated tax-paying position from FY21/22.
Thus, Equal-weight rating retained. Target is $2.45. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.34
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 35.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.90 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of -38.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 14.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of -5.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $15.96
Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -
Mineral Resources' March quarter numbers were solid, the broker suggests, with iron ore shipments in line with forecasts and lithium slightly better.
Mining services continues to perform well and the company has guided to flat earnings in the second half from the first, implying a 15-23% upgrade to prior FY20 guidance.
Target rises to $21.00 from $20.50, Outperform retained.
Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $15.96 Difference: $5.04
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.10, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 189.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.7, implying annual growth of 108.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 113.00 cents and EPS of 257.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 234.0, implying annual growth of 28.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 113.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -
Iron ore production and shipments were weaker in the March quarter because of delays to the ramp up at Koolyanobbing. The broker comments this is offset by increased mining services guidance.
Mining services operating earnings guidance increases 17% while iron ore shipments are lowered -6%. Overweight rating maintained. Target is $18.30. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $18.30 Current Price is $15.96 Difference: $2.34
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.10, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 183.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.7, implying annual growth of 108.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 158.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 234.0, implying annual growth of 28.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 113.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates MIN as Accumulate (2) -
Mining services are expected to stay strong, with earnings guidance for FY20 upgraded. This was offset by the downgrade to Koolyanobbing volumes amid more low-grade ore from Mount Marion and a weak lithium outlook.
Ord Minnett reduces FY20 earnings estimates by -10%. Accumulate rating maintained. Target is raised to $18.00 from $16.20, as another 12 months of mine life is added to the Iron Valley project and mining services volumes are lifted.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $15.96 Difference: $2.04
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.10, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 173.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.7, implying annual growth of 108.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 287.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 234.0, implying annual growth of 28.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 113.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.53
Ord Minnett rates OZL as Accumulate (2) -
March quarter production was mixed, with Ord Minnett noting a strong operating performance failed to translate to cash flow. Still, the balance sheet has improved, with a $300m increase in the debt facility.
While there is re-rating in potential, the broker remains wary of copper prices over the short term. Accumulate rating maintained. Target is reduced to $9.90 from $11.30.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $8.53 Difference: $1.37
If OZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.14, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 29.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.7, implying annual growth of -53.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 75.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.8, implying annual growth of 224.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PSQ PACIFIC SMILES GROUP LIMITED
Healthcare services
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Overnight Price: $1.14
Morgan Stanley rates PSQ as Overweight (1) -
More than 70 out of the company's 93 centres will re-open from April 27. Appointment volumes, however, are likely to be severely affected.
Morgan Stanley expects an unwinding of the working capital benefit because of lower volumes. Still, the liquidity risk has been alleviated.
Overweight rating, In-Line industry view. Target is $1.60.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.46
If PSQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.40 cents and EPS of 3.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RHC RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED
Healthcare services
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Overnight Price: $64.91
Ord Minnett rates RHC as Accumulate (2) -
Ramsay Sante, the European joint venture, has indicated the cancellation of non-urgent surgery from mid March has weighed on the business, although there is significant financial support from the French government and rental payments have been delayed.
Management remains confident the business has sufficient liquidity.
Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and $66 target, foreseeing some risk that additional funds may be required. However, the company is in a relatively comfortable position after the recent injection of capital.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $64.91 Difference: $1.09
If RHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $64.05, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 202.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 190.3, implying annual growth of -28.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 236.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.0, implying annual growth of 7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $25.14
Credit Suisse rates RMD as Neutral (3) -
ResMed reports its March quarter results on May 1. Credit Suisse expects third quarter revenue growth of 6%.
The pandemic is expected to have a minor impact on the quarter, with significant disruption only occurring in the last two weeks and strong trends in January and February.
The broker forecasts 10% US mask growth and 3% US device growth. Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $25.50 from $25.10.
Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $25.14 Difference: $0.36
If RMD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.65, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.36 cents and EPS of 58.17 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.55 cents and EPS of 65.77 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.8, implying annual growth of 12.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.74
Citi rates SDF as Buy (1) -
Citi expects FY20 should be relatively resistant to the impact of the pandemic. Strong earnings momentum has continued into the March quarter and revenue growth was strong at 21%.
The company has stated that the update was provided now, having been extremely cautious previously and withdrawn guidance. Citi retains a Buy rating, believing the medium-term growth story is intact. Target is $3.65.
Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.91
If SDF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 30.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.90 cents and EPS of 12.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of 14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.90 cents and EPS of 13.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of -1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates SDF as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse observes the business has recovered somewhat in recent weeks, and continues to think the decline in the share price is overdone.
While not completely resistant to the current environment the broker points out the trading update signalled revenue was up 25.8% in the nine months to March and earnings up 21%.
While appreciating the fact guidance was withdrawn because of uncertainty, Credit Suisse continues to expect the immediate impact of the pandemic will be minimal for insurance brokers. Outperform rating and $3.50 target retained.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.76
If SDF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 30.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of 14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of -1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -
Steadfast Group has reported a 26% increase in year to date revenues and 21% for earnings, ahead of the broker's forecasts. The broker has lifted its target to $3.30 from $3.20 and retained Outperform.
Multi-sector exposure and a diversified broker network is defensive in the current uncertain environment, the broker suggests.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.56
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 30.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.90 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of 14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.10 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of -1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates SDF as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett observes third quarter trends appear quite favourable but retains some concerns about the outlook for the next six months.
The broker notes a contraction in small-medium enterprise turnover and, as this grouping represents the largest part of the company's client base, there could be a sharp reduction in premiums, at least temporarily.
All up, the broker anticipates only mild downside but also reduces dividend pay-out assumptions for the next two halves. Accumulate maintained. Target is reduced to $3.90 from $4.28.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $1.16
If SDF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 30.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of 14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of -1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $26.02
Morgans rates SHL as Add (1) -
While Sonic Healthcare has laboratories across its three main geographies providing essential clinical testing for the coronavirus, Morgans observes a surge in costs and a decrease in routine procedures means everything else is a headwind.
The unprecedented level of uncertainty has meant guidance has been withdrawn and, while there is obvious pent-up demand, the broker does not expect immediate changes to patient behaviour.
Social distancing is likely to remain in place for some time and countries open up gradually. Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $27.84 from $35.12.
Target price is $27.84 Current Price is $26.02 Difference: $1.82
If SHL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.41, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.5, implying annual growth of -28.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 121.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.0, implying annual growth of 24.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TYR TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit
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Overnight Price: $2.66
Morgan Stanley rates TYR as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley remains positive about the business, although expects transaction value over the short term will be sharply lower because of the negative impact of the lock-down, particularly in hospitality/retail.
Weakness increased in early April, as more of the US moved into lock-down, while some stabilisation is anticipated in late April. Morgan Stanley retains a positive thesis based on structural growth and market share gains.
Overweight rating and $3.50 target. Industry view is Attractive.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.84
If TYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.10
Citi rates WSA as Buy (1) -
March quarter production was in line with expectations. Western Areas offers leverage to nickel, which Citi expects will recover in the second half.
While there are delays to equipment, Odysseus remains on time for first production in late 2022.
Cosmos should also add to output and maintain the production pipeline as Forrestania winds down, the broker notes. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.50 from $2.85.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.4
If WSA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 250.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of -1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates WSA as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse assesses Western Areas is on track for FY20 guidance from both a production and cost perspective. A decline in spot nickel suggests margin compression in the June quarter.
There has been some delay to infrastructure sourced from South Africa because of the pandemic but this is not expected to impact the timing of the Odysseus project. Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.35 from $2.50.
Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.25
If WSA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 17.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 250.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.35 cents and EPS of 11.17 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of -1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WSA as Outperform (1) -
Western Areas' March quarter result was mixed, the broker suggests, but FY guidance remains unchanged and cash flow was better than expected.
Development work at Cosmos is proceeding and work on the Flying Fox mine plan could result in a one-year mine life extension, the broker notes.
The broker retains Outperform, while acknowledging downside risk at current nickel spot prices. Target falls to $2.90 from $3.50.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.8
If WSA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 9.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 250.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 31.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of -1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WSA as Overweight (1) -
Western Areas is expected to meet guidance in FY20. The lock-down in South Africa, if extended, may delay the delivery of key equipment to Odysseus but, overall, no delay to the project is expected.
Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating, In-Line industry view and $2.60 target.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.5
If WSA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 250.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of -1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates WSA as Buy (1) -
UBS considers the quarterly result was generally in line with market expectations. However, production guidance of 21-22,000tpa implies the lower end of guidance will be attained rather than the top.
The broker retains a Buy rating and $2.50 target, noting the share price is trading at a -15% discount to valuation.
The business is highly leveraged to the nickel price which faces downside risks over the short term because of a lack of demand globally for stainless steel.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.4
If WSA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 250.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of -1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
ABC | Adelaide Brighton | $2.38 | Credit Suisse | 2.10 | 2.60 | -19.23% |
ABP | Abacus Property Group | $2.45 | Ord Minnett | 2.90 | 2.70 | 7.41% |
ALX | Atlas Arteria | $5.65 | Credit Suisse | 6.00 | 7.90 | -24.05% |
Macquarie | 6.90 | 7.14 | -3.36% | |||
AMP | AMP Ltd | $1.34 | Morgan Stanley | 1.40 | 1.70 | -17.65% |
BWP | BWP Trust | $3.42 | Ord Minnett | 3.50 | 3.00 | 16.67% |
CAR | Carsales.Com | $13.52 | Ord Minnett | 15.72 | 18.98 | -17.18% |
CDP | Carindale Property | $3.24 | Ord Minnett | 3.50 | 3.60 | -2.78% |
CHC | Charter Hall | $7.32 | Macquarie | 9.11 | 9.61 | -5.20% |
Ord Minnett | 8.40 | 8.00 | 5.00% | |||
CLW | Charter Hall Long Wale Reit | $4.53 | Ord Minnett | 4.80 | 3.90 | 23.08% |
CQE | Charter Hall Soc Infra Reit | $2.24 | Ord Minnett | 2.80 | 2.50 | 12.00% |
CQR | Charter Hall Retail | $3.15 | Ord Minnett | 3.00 | 2.60 | 15.38% |
DMP | Domino's Pizza | $50.83 | Morgans | 55.57 | 57.19 | -2.83% |
UBS | 50.80 | 51.00 | -0.39% | |||
DXS | Dexus Property | $8.95 | Ord Minnett | 9.10 | 8.50 | 7.06% |
EVN | Evolution Mining | $5.32 | Credit Suisse | 4.85 | 4.60 | 5.43% |
GMG | Goodman Grp | $13.38 | Ord Minnett | 12.60 | 12.00 | 5.00% |
GOZ | Growthpoint Prop | $2.94 | Ord Minnett | 3.30 | 3.00 | 10.00% |
GPT | GPT Group | $3.89 | Ord Minnett | 4.60 | 4.30 | 6.98% |
HMC | Home Consortium Ltd | $2.30 | Ord Minnett | 2.60 | 2.40 | 8.33% |
HPI | Hotel Property Investments | $2.35 | Ord Minnett | 2.70 | 2.50 | 8.00% |
IAP | Investec Australia Property Fund | $1.09 | Ord Minnett | 1.20 | 1.10 | 9.09% |
IFM | Infomedia | $1.53 | UBS | 2.05 | 2.40 | -14.58% |
IPH | IPH Limited | $7.27 | Macquarie | 9.60 | 10.65 | -9.86% |
LEP | Ale Property Group | $4.09 | Ord Minnett | 3.80 | 4.00 | -5.00% |
MAI | Mainstream Group Holdings | $0.41 | Morgans | 0.61 | 0.68 | -10.29% |
MGR | Mirvac | $2.11 | Ord Minnett | 2.50 | 2.40 | 4.17% |
MIN | Mineral Resources | $15.96 | Macquarie | 21.00 | 20.50 | 2.44% |
Morgan Stanley | 18.30 | 17.00 | 7.65% | |||
Ord Minnett | 18.00 | 16.00 | 12.50% | |||
NSR | National Storage | $1.68 | Ord Minnett | 1.60 | 1.50 | 6.67% |
OZL | Oz Minerals | $8.53 | Ord Minnett | 9.90 | 11.30 | -12.39% |
RMD | Resmed | $25.14 | Credit Suisse | 25.50 | 25.10 | 1.59% |
SCG | Scentre Group | $2.09 | Ord Minnett | 2.10 | 1.90 | 10.53% |
SCP | Shopping Centres Aus | $2.23 | Ord Minnett | 2.20 | 2.05 | 7.32% |
SDF | Steadfast Group | $2.74 | Macquarie | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.12% |
Ord Minnett | 3.90 | 4.28 | -8.88% | |||
SHL | Sonic Healthcare | $26.02 | Morgans | 27.84 | N/A | - |
TYR | Tyro Payments | $2.66 | Morgan Stanley | 3.50 | 3.60 | -2.78% |
VCX | Vicinity Centres | $1.38 | Ord Minnett | 1.80 | 1.50 | 20.00% |
VVR | Viva Energy Reit | $2.38 | Ord Minnett | 2.40 | 2.10 | 14.29% |
WSA | Western Areas | $2.10 | Citi | 2.50 | 2.85 | -12.28% |
Credit Suisse | 2.35 | 2.50 | -6.00% | |||
Macquarie | 2.90 | 3.50 | -17.14% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 2.60 | 3.10 | -16.13% |
Summaries
ABC | Adelaide Brighton | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.38 |
ALX | Atlas Arteria | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.65 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.65 | ||
AMP | AMP Ltd | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.34 |
AMX | Aerometrex | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.48 |
CAR | Carsales.Com | Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $13.52 |
CDP | Carindale Property | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.24 |
CHC | Charter Hall | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.32 |
DMP | Domino's Pizza | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $50.83 |
Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $50.83 | ||
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $50.83 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $50.83 | ||
EVN | Evolution Mining | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.32 |
HPI | Hotel Property Investments | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.35 |
IFM | Infomedia | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.53 |
IPH | IPH Limited | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.27 |
JHX | James Hardie | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $18.67 |
LEP | Ale Property Group | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.09 |
MAI | Mainstream Group Holdings | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.41 |
MGR | Mirvac | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.11 |
MIN | Mineral Resources | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $15.96 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $15.96 | ||
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $15.96 | ||
OZL | Oz Minerals | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $8.53 |
PSQ | Pacific Smiles Group | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.14 |
RHC | Ramsay Health Care | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $64.91 |
RMD | Resmed | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $25.14 |
SDF | Steadfast Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.74 |
Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.74 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.74 | ||
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.74 | ||
SHL | Sonic Healthcare | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $26.02 |
TYR | Tyro Payments | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.66 |
WSA | Western Areas | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.10 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.10 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.10 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.10 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.10 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 20 |
2. Accumulate | 7 |
3. Hold | 9 |
4. Reduce | 1 |
5. Sell | 1 |
Monday 27 April 2020
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