Australian Broker Call

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November 15, 2019

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
APE - AP EAGERS Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
ANN  ANSELL LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies

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Overnight Price: $29.02

Morgan Stanley rates ANN as Overweight (1) -

Ansell has maintained FY20 guidance, despite the challenging conditions. Morgan Stanley suggests the buyback could provide upside.

Value is still envisaged as the stock is trading at a -30% discount to the ASX200 industrials ex financials. Overweight rating. Target is $31.60. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $31.60 Current Price is $29.02 Difference: $2.58
If ANN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.31, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 69.59 cents and EPS of 163.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 78.74 cents and EPS of 184.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 186.5, implying annual growth of 9.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

The company has reiterated FY20 guidance whilst noting deteriorating market conditions and increasingly unfavourable FX rates. Industrial demand remains weak in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.

UBS notes transformation benefits and the buyback are the key drivers of the stock. Neutral rating and $27 target maintained.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $29.02 Difference: minus $2.02 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.31, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 68.59 cents and EPS of 164.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 71.45 cents and EPS of 170.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 186.5, implying annual growth of 9.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ  AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP

Banks

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Overnight Price: $25.43

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Citi lowers estimates for earnings by -5% for FY20 with smaller revisions in the outer years. This is primarily attributable to revised assumptions around markets income.

The broker also revises near-term cost assumptions. Citi maintains a Neutral rating and $28 target.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $25.43 Difference: $2.57
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.31, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 208.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.4, implying annual growth of -2.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 211.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 210.8, implying annual growth of 3.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APE  AP EAGERS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $10.30

Morgan Stanley rates APE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley found the trading update disappointing although not totally unexpected, given the continued decline in new vehicle sales. The broker also suspects Automotive Holdings' larger front-end focus is playing a part.

Synergy and operating benefits remain intact, nonetheless. Overweight maintained. Target is $16.00. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $10.30 Difference: $5.7
If APE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.62, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 33.20 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.8, implying annual growth of -10.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 37.50 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.3, implying annual growth of 20.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates APE as Add (1) -

The trading update reflected tougher market conditions and a softer-than-expected outcome for Automotive Holdings in the year to date. Morgans suspects this reflects a more conservative accounting treatment by AP Eagers, softer new vehicle sales and underperformance by Automotive Holdings.

While AP Eagers has acquired a large and complex business with several underperforming parts the broker believes the eventual prize remains attractive. Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $12.02 from $15.55.

Target price is $12.02 Current Price is $10.30 Difference: $1.72
If APE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.62, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.8, implying annual growth of -10.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.3, implying annual growth of 20.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates APE as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett was underwhelmed by the trading update, which indicated pre-tax profit for the first 10 months of 2019 declined -6%. The broker likes the business model over the medium term but is not over confident about 2020.

This leads to a downgrade to the rating to Hold from Accumulate. The broker points out the economics of dealerships have changed and are likely to continue to evolve and AP Eagers is ideally positioned to participate in consolidation and leverage its market leadership.

Yet, Ord Minnett is cautious about consensus expectations, which imply a market recovery and/or meaningful merger benefits in 2020. Target is reduced to $11.50 from $12.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.30 Difference: $1.2
If APE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.62, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.8, implying annual growth of -10.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.3, implying annual growth of 20.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BAP  BAPCOR LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $7.39

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes recent acquisitions have significantly increased exposure to the truck industry. Truckline also provides exposure to Western Australia. Post completion, Bapcor will operate 38 truck sites.

Guidance has been reiterated, although the broker picks up on the change in wording to "at least mid single digit" net profit growth from "mid to high single digit".

Overweight rating. Target is raised to $8.10 from $7.60. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.39 Difference: $0.71
If BAP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.64, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.60 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.1, implying annual growth of 4.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.70 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.1, implying annual growth of 11.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP GROUP

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $37.39

Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Mike Henry will replace Andrew Mackenzie as CEO effective January 1, which is no surprise Credit Suisse suggests, as Mr Henry is well credentialled, having been president of the Australian operations for BHP Group.

While any change in a CEO brings questions about whether this may change the direction of the company the broker suspects it will be very much business as usual.

Neutral rating and $37 target maintained.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $37.39 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.47, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 155.27 cents and EPS of 307.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 315.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 208.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 108.60 cents and EPS of 215.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 272.1, implying annual growth of -13.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 182.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

The broker does not expect the appointment of Mark Henry as BHP CEO to result in any change in the strategy laid down by his predecessor. But the appointment does remove uncertainty surrounding leadership, so this is a positive.

Outperform and $40 target retained.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $37.39 Difference: $2.61
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.47, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 218.63 cents and EPS of 310.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 315.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 208.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 175.77 cents and EPS of 250.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 272.1, implying annual growth of -13.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 182.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BIN  BINGO INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $2.94

Morgans rates BIN as Hold (3) -

First-time FY20 guidance for operating earnings (EBITDA) of $159-164m has been provided at the AGM. Morgans notes there is significant upside to forecasts and valuation if the company can achieve its medium-term return on capital employed (ROCE) target of 15%.

However, the broker hopes this can be achieved through improvements in operations and capital investment and not through financial engineering of the balance sheet.

Hold rating maintained. Target is raised to $2.53 from $2.30.

Target price is $2.53 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If BIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of 151.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.20 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.2, implying annual growth of 24.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ECX  ECLIPX GROUP LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $1.68

Morgan Stanley rates ECX as Equal-weight (3) -

FY19 results were in line with expectations. Novated leasing remains the key growth driver in FY20. Morgan Stanley notes there was little further detail on divestments or FY20 guidance.

The broker likes the strong prospects for the fleet division. Equal-weight rating. Industry view is In-Line. Target is raised to $1.70 from $1.35.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.02
If ECX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.60 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 12.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of 18.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHL  EMECO HOLDINGS LTD

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $2.11

Macquarie rates EHL as Outperform (1) -

Emeco's trading update suggests the company is on track to hit FY20 guidance. Growth is being achieved across all fronts, the broker notes: increased rental and utilisation rates, and contributions from recent growth asset acquisitions.

East coast activity remains strong, particularly in met coal, while west coast activity is picking up in iron ore and gold.

Strong cash flow has led management to suggest shareholders may soon be rewarded with dividends. The broker retains Outperform and a $3.00 target.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.89
If EHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 30.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.87.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.03.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GEM  G8 EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare

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Overnight Price: $1.99

Morgan Stanley rates GEM as Equal-weight (3) -

The company has reduced earnings guidance, citing occupancy and wage headwinds. Morgan Stanley is consoled by the closure and sale of WA assets. Earnings (EBIT) guidance is lowered by -9% at the mid point, to $131-134m.

The broker envisages less scope for a re-rating, even assuming some stabilisation.  Equal-weight reiterated. Target is lowered to $2.20 from $2.50. In-Line industry view maintained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.99 Difference: $0.21
If GEM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of -6.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of 13.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates GEM as Neutral (3) -

Conditions have proven more challenging than previously anticipated, although UBS remains confident in the long-term value. The company has reduced 2019 earnings (EBIT) guidance by -6-8% to $131-134m.

The broker does not believe the stock is expensive and estimates growth in earnings per share could accelerate to 17% should G8 Education successfully achieve its turnaround strategy by FY22.

Nevertheless, the broker maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $2.05 from $2.25.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.99 Difference: $0.06
If GEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of -6.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.40 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of 13.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC  GRAINCORP LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $8.60

Credit Suisse rates GNC as No Rating (-1) -

The company has completed a difficult year, significantly affected by low grain production and trading losses. Earnings are expected to improve significantly in FY20.

Additional volume from the winter crop, together with more flexible rail contracts and crop protection insurance taking affect in FY20 should help, Credit Suisse suggests.

Credit Suisse cannot provide a rating or target at present.

Current Price is $8.60. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.70, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.43 cents and EPS of 23.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 19.78 cents and EPS of 39.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.7, implying annual growth of 104.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates GNC as No Rating (-1) -

Graincorp's result met the broker's expectation. The portfolio review is well-progressed, and earnings should benefit in FY20 from the non-recurrence of one-offs and a ten-year crop production contract that comes into force.

The broker is currently restricted from making a recommendation.

Current Price is $8.60. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.70, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.70 cents and EPS of 21.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.20 cents and EPS of 40.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.7, implying annual growth of 104.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates GNC as Hold (3) -

FY19 results were poor, stemming from the smallest east coast grain crop in over a decade, Morgans asserts. Another challenging season is likely in FY20.

The ACCC is due to make a decision on the proposed sale of the terminals to ANZ Terminals. If this sale is not approved Morgans does not rule out an equity raising.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $8.00 from $8.25.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.70, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.7, implying annual growth of 104.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates GNC as Buy (1) -

The company has reported its worst-ever annual result, UBS notes, heavily affected by drought and onerous rail take-or-pay contracts. A large grain trading loss of -$65m was incurred. Meanwhile there was another record performance in the malt business.

UBS expects the grains division to return to positive earnings in FY20 but there remains a high level of uncertainty. The broker continues to believe the de-merger plan will unlock value and maintains a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $9.40 from $9.55.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: $0.8
If GNC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.70, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.1.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 46.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.7, implying annual growth of 104.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GWA  GWA GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation

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Overnight Price: $3.19

Macquarie rates GWA as Neutral (3) -

Rising house prices and sale volumes point to a turnaround in housing activity, Macquarie suggests. But given building approvals tend to lag house prices by several months, the broker sees another tough quarter for GWA Group before improvement in the second half and a return to growth in FY21.

The company has less exposure to detached houses and apartments for which starts are likely to fall further, the broker notes, with greater exposure to renovation and commercial markets. The stock has fallen over -15% since May and short interest has increased to 15%. Upgrade to Outperform. Target rises to $3.60 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.41
If GWA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.14, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 19.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of -45.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 20.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of 5.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KLL  KALIUM LAKES LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $0.47

Macquarie rates KLL as Outperform (1) -

The WA premier has signed off on Kalium Lakes' $74m Northern Australian Infrastructure Facility which will allow the company to draw down debt to fund its Beyondie sulphate of potash project.

Pond construction timing remains key but the project is being developed at full speed since final investment decision approval, the broker notes. Outperform and 90c target retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.43
If KLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.11.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.08.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LLC  LENDLEASE GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $19.49

Macquarie rates LLC as Outperform (1) -

Post the sale of Lendlease's engineering & services division to Goodman Group ((GMG)), the broker compares the valuation of the two. At a headline, activities of development, funds management and co-investments are similar, the broker notes.

Goodman deserves a premium but the broker believes Lendlease will converge over time. An increased multiple for Lendlease sees that broker's target rise to $21.80 from $19.77. Outperform retained.

Target price is $21.80 Current Price is $19.49 Difference: $2.31
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.19, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 135.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.1, implying annual growth of 63.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 69.90 cents and EPS of 140.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.8, implying annual growth of 2.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MSV  MITCHELL SERVICES LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $0.06

Morgans rates MSV as Speculative Buy (1) -

The company has announced the acquisition of Deepcore Drilling for $32m. Morgans considers the acquisition a smart move, providing improved diversity via gold as well as the market profile.

While the acquisition does delay de-gearing, the broker expects the market will back the larger business, with the benefits of improved earnings power and resilience to the downside during the cycle.

The broker retains a Speculative Buy (Add) rating. Target is 8.5c.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.025
If MSV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEA  NEARMAP LTD

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $2.89

Morgan Stanley rates NEA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley was pleased with guidance, for ACV (annualised contract value) of $116-120m by the end of FY20. Concerns around domestic competition and the ramp up of sales in the US had tempered expectations, the broker suspects.

Morgan Stanley considers Nearmap one of the most compelling technology opportunities in the Australian market with an advantage in cumulative R&D, scale and the installed base. Overweight rating, In-Line industry view and $4.20 target maintained.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $1.31
If NEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting upside of 41.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 36.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 96.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS  PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $0.31

Credit Suisse rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

The company has reported recoveries in the December quarter to date of 60%. Credit Suisse notes, importantly, in early November recoveries averaged 68.5% over a five day period. This is a major step towards the long-held target recovery of 75%.

Still, the macro environment is the largest determinant of the share price in the near term and the broker envisages risk of further price and sales pressures. Outperform rating and $0.60 target maintained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.29
If PLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RHC  RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $73.14

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Equal-weight (3) -

FY20 guidance has been reiterated. Stronger volume growth is still anticipated. Morgan Stanley suspects, given the strength in the share price recently, that an upgrade to guidance may have been anticipated.

While confident in long-term volume growth, pricing and cost pressures add risk to the long-term sustainability of the system and need to be addressed in the broker's view.

The broker awaits meaningful regulatory changes or disruptive alternative care models, believing the days of "make the patient pay more" are over.

Equal-weight rating retained. Target is $61. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $73.14 Difference: minus $12.14 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $68.67, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 168.80 cents and EPS of 297.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 294.8, implying annual growth of 11.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 176.50 cents and EPS of 309.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 314.6, implying annual growth of 6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM  SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $10.80

Citi rates SGM as Buy (1) -

FY20 guidance was reaffirmed at the AGM, the company expecting a first half earnings (EBIT) loss of -$20-30m and FY20 earnings of $20-50m. Weaker automotive sales and global manufacturing have been cited as the cause along with slowing world growth and unresolved trade wars.

Citi notes Turkish scrap prices have rebounded nearly 20% since September lows, triggered by re-stocking. Non-ferrous scrap markets remain under pressure. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $12.10 from $10.50.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $10.80 Difference: $1.3
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.63, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 14.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 75.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of -89.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 142.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 64.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of 706.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES  WESFARMERS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $42.01

Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -

Wesfarmers has pointed to a better consumer backdrop at its AGM. However, while sales commentary was encouraging, cost pressures are likely to offset operating leverage in Citi's view.

The broker maintains a Sell rating and $34.50 target. Improved trends at Bunnings are expected to be offset by bearish commentary around costs, FX, investment and Blackwoods.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $42.01 Difference: minus $7.51 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 150.40 cents and EPS of 170.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.1, implying annual growth of -2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 150.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 148.70 cents and EPS of 177.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.7, implying annual growth of 4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates WES as Neutral (3) -

At its AGM, Wesfarmers noted signs of improvement in consumer sentiment post housing bounce and stimulus measures, although consumers remain value conscious. The broker is cautious on investment in such "value" weighing on margins, along with cost pressures, wages and forex.

There was update on M&A plans with management citing a "concerning" regulatory environment. Neutral and $37.50 target retained.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $42.01 Difference: minus $4.51 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 154.30 cents and EPS of 171.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.1, implying annual growth of -2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 150.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 162.90 cents and EPS of 181.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.7, implying annual growth of 4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates WES as Underweight (5) -

Wesfarmers has flagged improvement in sales growth relative to the second half of FY19 for the majority of its businesses. This suggests to Morgan Stanley upside risk to revenue estimates for Bunnings, Kmart and Officeworks.

In contrast, commentary on Target appeared worse than expected, although the challenges to that business are well known. Underweight rating. Target is $32. Cautious industry view.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $42.01 Difference: minus $10.01 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 151.00 cents and EPS of 134.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.1, implying annual growth of -2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 150.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 152.00 cents and EPS of 136.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.7, implying annual growth of 4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
APE AP EAGERS $10.30 Morgans 12.02 15.55 -22.70%
Ord Minnett 11.50 12.50 -8.00%
BAP BAPCOR LIMITED $7.39 Morgan Stanley 8.10 7.60 6.58%
BIN BINGO INDUSTRIES $2.94 Morgans 2.53 2.30 10.00%
ECX ECLIPX GROUP $1.68 Morgan Stanley 1.70 1.35 25.93%
GEM G8 EDUCATION $1.99 Morgan Stanley 2.20 2.50 -12.00%
UBS 2.05 2.25 -8.89%
GNC GRAINCORP $8.60 Morgans 8.00 8.25 -3.03%
UBS 9.40 9.55 -1.57%
GWA GWA GROUP $3.19 Macquarie 3.60 3.40 5.88%
LLC LENDLEASE $19.49 Macquarie 21.80 19.77 10.27%
SGM SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT $10.80 Citi 12.10 10.50 15.24%
Summaries
ANN ANSELL Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $29.02
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $29.02
ANZ ANZ BANKING GROUP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $25.43
APE AP EAGERS Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $10.30
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $10.30
Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $10.30
BAP BAPCOR LIMITED Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $7.39
BHP BHP Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $37.39
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $37.39
BIN BINGO INDUSTRIES Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.94
ECX ECLIPX GROUP Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.68
EHL EMECO Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.11
GEM G8 EDUCATION Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.99
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $1.99
GNC GRAINCORP No Rating - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $8.60
No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.60
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $8.60
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $8.60
GWA GWA GROUP Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.19
KLL KALIUM LAKES Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.47
LLC LENDLEASE Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $19.49
MSV MITCHELL SERVICES Speculative Buy - Morgans Overnight Price $0.06
NEA NEARMAP Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.89
PLS PILBARA MINERALS Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $0.31
RHC RAMSAY HEALTH CARE Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $73.14
SGM SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT Buy - Citi Overnight Price $10.80
WES WESFARMERS Sell - Citi Overnight Price $42.01
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $42.01
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $42.01
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

13

3. Hold

12

5. Sell

2

Friday 15 November 2019

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.