Australian Broker Call
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July 11, 2018
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
Last Updated: 01:06 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| ALU - | ALTIUM | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
| APX - | APPEN | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
| BOQ - | BANK OF QUEENSLAND | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| ING - | INGHAMS GROUP | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
| JIN - | JUMBO INTERACTIVE | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
| PDL - | PENDAL GROUP | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
AGL AGL ENERGY LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $21.90
Credit Suisse rates AGL as Neutral (3) -
The reduction in retail prices from AGL and others signals escalating competition and Credit Suisse reduces FY19 margins. According to the broker's latest survey, the company has matched prices in Queensland and South Australia and given back the January 1 price increases in Victoria.
This was more than the broker had anticipated. FY19 gross margins are decreased by an additional -100 basis points. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $22.90 from $23.25.
Target price is $22.90 Current Price is $21.90 Difference: $1
If AGL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.86, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 155.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.1, implying annual growth of 91.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 160.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 164.0, implying annual growth of 6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $31.08
UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -
Subsequent to recent acquisitions, UBS forecasts that 75% of the company's revenue will be recurring, driven by digital and US participation.
From its latest analysis UBS is increasingly confident in forecasts for FY18 and FY19 growth in earnings per share of 35% and 27% respectively.
Target is $36.20. Buy retained.
Target price is $36.20 Current Price is $31.08 Difference: $5.12
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.48, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 115.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.7, implying annual growth of 50.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 146.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 140.2, implying annual growth of 20.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $20.59
UBS rates ALU as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
UBS believes the valuation has become stretched and the minimal downside risks are now priced in. Business momentum remains strong and earnings risks in the medium term are to the upside.
As valuation risks are now heightened the broker downgrades to Sell from Neutral. Target is raised to $18.50 from $15.60.
Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $20.59 Difference: minus $2.09 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $15.89, suggesting downside of -22.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of 61.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $12.64
UBS rates APX as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
Following the strong share price performance UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy. The broker's core investment thesis is intact and the earnings outlook for the medium term remains positive.
UBS estimates first half earnings of $24m. Target is raised to $13.10 from $12.00.
Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $12.64 Difference: $0.46
If APX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.10 cents and EPS of 33.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.64
UBS rates AQG as Buy (1) -
UBS believes the investment case rests on the company's sulphide project that is set to ramp up. With construction almost complete the risks are reduced yet the broker suspects they are weighing on investor minds.
The company has increased 2018 production guidance from oxides to 110-130,000 ounces and reduced all-in sustaining cost guidance to US$650-700/oz. This should bring in more cash, the broker expects.
Buy and $3.60 target retained.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: $0.96
If AQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 51.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 30.98 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.2, implying annual growth of 463.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.63
Citi rates BOQ as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Bank of Queensland has underperformed in 2018 and is now more attractively priced in Citi's view. The stock now largely reflects the weaker outlook ahead for retail banking and regional banks.
Moreover, the broker argues that consolidation is probable among regionals, and Bank of Queensland shareholders should be set to benefit. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $11.50 from $11.00.
Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.63 Difference: $0.87
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.74, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in August.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 89.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.3, implying annual growth of -6.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 85.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.3, implying annual growth of -3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $17.96
Macquarie rates BSL as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie reviews its investment thesis, noting the macro support is good despite the machinations of US trade policy. The broker raises FY19 estimates by 35% on higher steel spread assumptions.
Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $21.50 from $19.60.
Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $17.96 Difference: $3.54
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.79, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 135.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 149.0, implying annual growth of 18.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 208.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 182.2, implying annual growth of 22.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FLT FLIGHT CENTRE LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $64.73
Morgan Stanley rates FLT as Equal-weight (3) -
Flight Centre has evolved its model from a leisure focus to be 50/50 leisure/corporate, and successfully so, the broker believes. Corporate customers are using the business because it is quicker, cheaper and more efficient.
Corporate is less likely to suffer short term earnings disruptions than leisure and what the broker believes the market is overlooking is the opportunity for growth in the US, as to date it only represents 10% of earnings. The broker is expecting an FY18 earnings beat, but retains Equal-weight on a 19x FY19 PE.
Target rises to $68 from $54. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $68.00 Current Price is $64.73 Difference: $3.27
If FLT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $55.92, suggesting downside of -13.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 277.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 275.4, implying annual growth of 20.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 167.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 195.00 cents and EPS of 324.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 306.1, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 185.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GDG GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $1.16
Morgans rates GDG as Add (1) -
The company has delivered a strong quarterly performance, Morgans observes. The broker lifts FY18 estimates for earnings per share by 8% and FY19 by 22%. There was another material jump in sales inflows.
The broker likes the story and, post recent changes in superannuation, believes alternative low-tax investment options such as investment bonds will experience significant structural growth. Add rating maintained. Target rises to $1.44 from $1.33.
Target price is $1.44 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.28
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.70 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 1.90 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ING INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $3.75
UBS rates ING as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
UBS downgrades to Sell from Neutral, believing consensus expectations are too high for FY19. FY19-21 forecasts are reduced by -6-7%. Target is reduced to $3.40 from $3.70.
The broker believes the market is over estimating cost reductions and the ability to pass through costs. The main risk to the stock's Sell rating, UBS acknowledges, is capital management at the FY18 result.
Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If ING meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 73.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.30
Morgans rates JIN as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
Tabcorp ((TAH)) has exercised its option to acquire 3.5m shares in Jumbo Interactive at $2.37 each. Subsequently Tabcorp sold around 2.85m shares at $4.26 each and now holds 12.5% of the stock.
Morgans believes the decline in the share price has been caused by investors speculating that Tabcorp will not take over the company. The broker never anticipated such a move believing that, while the business is a good fit down the track, Tabcorp has a significant amount of work to do internally.
Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold. Target is raised to $4.84 from $4.81.
Target price is $4.84 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.54
If JIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.97
Credit Suisse rates MHJ as Outperform (1) -
FY18 same-store sales growth of 0.4% was slightly ahead of Credit Suisse forecasts. No earnings guidance has been provided.
The broker continues to believe the stock offers attractive value and, as a clean year approaches without the earnings drag from the US and loss-making Emma & Roe, expects greater focus on the core Australasian and Canadian businesses.
Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to NZ$1.42 from NZ$1.45.
Current Price is $0.97. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $1.09, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of -12.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of 36.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $15.16
Macquarie rates MIN as No Rating (-1) -
The company has announced it will wind back DSO as part of its Wodgina lithium disposal process, with shipments to cease at the end of 2018. Macquarie suggests the acquisition of the Cliffs Australian iron ore assets has potential to extend the life of the Carina iron ore project.
Incorporating changes to commodity price forecasts and guidance on DSO shipments Macquarie reduces FY18, FY19 and FY20 earnings estimates by -21%, -25% and -29% respectively.
Macquarie is on research restrictions and cannot provide a rating or target at this stage.
Current Price is $15.16. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $18.83, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 140.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.7, implying annual growth of 33.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 83.00 cents and EPS of 168.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.0, implying annual growth of 7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -
Mineral Resources shipment numbers are in line with FY18 guidance, being -1.4% lower. While shipments have disappointed, the issues have been well flagged, the broker notes.
Wodgina remains the world's largest hard-rock lithium asset. Overweight and $21.50 target retained. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $15.16 Difference: $6.34
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.83, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.70 cents and EPS of 135.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.7, implying annual growth of 33.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 91.70 cents and EPS of 156.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.0, implying annual growth of 7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.43
Morgan Stanley rates NEA as Overweight (1) -
Nearmap's pre-released FY18 numbers show a strong sales performance across A&NZ, a steeper than expected ramp-up in the US and lower cash burn than expected, the broker notes.
In response the broker has lifted revenue forecasts by 10-17% in FY19-20, and its target to $1.80 from $1.40. Overweight retained.
Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.37
If NEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.78
Macquarie rates OGC as Outperform (1) -
OceanaGold has intercepted more high grades at WPK, 10km north of Waihi which, Macquarie suggests, provides early potential for a supplementary feed source for the mill.
The broker's calculations indicate around 600,000 ozs of gold potential at 8.5g/t. Outperform and $6.00 target reiterated.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $2.22
If OGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.60, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.58 cents and EPS of 27.11 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.33 cents and EPS of 45.18 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.76
Credit Suisse rates ORG as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse retains a view that FY18 earnings expectations are too high. The company has benefited from efforts to secure additional fuel, particularly coal for Eraring, which enabled strong generation amid high prices.
Credit Suisse increases FY19 retail margin compression estimates based on its survey of electricity prices, which signal increased competition. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $10.60 from $10.50.
Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $9.76 Difference: $0.84
If ORG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.12, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 55.46 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 85.28 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.8, implying annual growth of 48.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PDL PENDAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $9.08
Credit Suisse rates PDL as Neutral (3) -
The company posted its fourth consecutive quarter of net outflows for its funds management business and the third for JO Hambro. Accrued performance fees deteriorated, with only $6.9m crystallising in June, Credit Suisse notes.
The broker downgrades FY18 estimates by -2% and FY19-20 by -3%. Neutral rating and $9.75 target maintained.
Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: $0.67
If PDL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.88, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.2, implying annual growth of 17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates PDL as Overweight (1) -
Pendal's funds under management increased 1% in the June Q but this is -3% short of the broker's forecast. Overall funds outflows were greater than expected, with JOHCM disappointing despite positive US momentum.
The broker retains Overweight and a $12 target. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: $2.92
If PDL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.88, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 50.50 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.2, implying annual growth of 17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 57.50 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates PDL as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
The company reported funds under management were up 1% in the June quarter. Further minor outflows were experienced by JO Hambro. The annualised risk is relatively minor, although Morgans envisages some risk of small outflows in the coming six months.
The broker downgrades to Hold from Add, believing the prospect for further outflows, concentration of performance fees, high fixed cost growth and the potential sell down by Westpac ((WBC)) will weigh on sentiment. Target is reduced to $11.00 from $11.60.
Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: $1.92
If PDL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.88, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.2, implying annual growth of 17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates PDL as Hold (3) -
Post the Q3 market update, Ord Minnett analysts point out JO Hambro, historically the key driver of FUM flows for the group, has now reported its third consecutive quarter of outflows. The analysts highlight this is a dynamic not witnessed in its almost seven years of ownership by Pendal.
While the US operations continue to see strong flows, Ord Minnett believes the share price is likely to remain under pressure with Westpac ((WBC)) expected to sell down its equity stake. Hold rating retained. Target moves to $10.40 from $11.
Small reductions have been applied to forecasts.
Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: $1.92
If PDL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.88, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.2, implying annual growth of 17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates PDL as Neutral (3) -
UBS believes the increasingly mixed performance across JO Hambro is starting to manifest in flows. Combined with the outflows related to the legacy MySuper accounts, UBS forecasts -$4bn in net outflows in FY18.
The broker also envisages significant downside risk to consensus performance fee estimates over FY19-20. Still, the emerging risks appear mostly priced in and the broker maintains a Neutral rating and $10.50 target.
Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: $1.42
If PDL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.88, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.2, implying annual growth of 17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PTM PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $5.49
Credit Suisse rates PTM as Underperform (5) -
Second half funds under management were down -5.2%, primarily from large cash distributions, Credit Suisse observes. The broker believes the softer fund performance could hamper the company's ability to attract flows from both onshore and offshore and this comes at a difficult time, given the portfolio manager changes.
The valuation is stretched and earnings risk is to the downside. Credit Suisse reiterates an Underperform rating. Target is reduced to $5.15 from $5.25.
Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $5.49 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.98, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of -3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.08
Macquarie rates RRL as Neutral (3) -
Preliminary production results signal record annual production of 361,400 ounces, in line with Macquarie's expectations. The broker expects the upcoming feasibility studies for both Rosemont underground and McPhillamys will provide positive growth catalysts.
Neutral rating and $5.10 target maintained.
Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: $0.02
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting downside of -16.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 33.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.8, implying annual growth of 15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 39.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of 7.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $15.61
UBS rates SGM as Sell (5) -
China's latest move against the scrap market now includes a possible complete ban on all scrap metals. Since the start of 2018 China has restricted the import of non-ferrous scrap to only the highest quality.
UBS suspects Sims has been able to divert materials to other countries and envisages limited risk to earnings in the current half-year. Over the longer term, the broker remains cautious.
Sell and $13.70 target retained.
Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $15.61 Difference: minus $1.91 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.33, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 98.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.6, implying annual growth of -5.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 103.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.6, implying annual growth of 16.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SYD SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $7.14
Morgan Stanley rates SYD as Equal-weight (3) -
The broker is not concerned about the Productivity Commission's regular review of Australian airport regulation. The airport industry has expressed strong concern about Sydney Airport's market power but public concern about growing airport costs is limited, the broker notes, and the user base is growing.
Equal-weight and $7.27 target retained. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $7.27 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: $0.13
If SYD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.40, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.50 cents and EPS of 18.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 17.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 21.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
VRL VILLAGE ROADSHOW LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $2.18
Citi rates VRL as Neutral (3) -
The $50m equity raising and $37m sale of Wet 'n' Wild resolves issues for the balance sheet, Citi observes.
The broker awaits the outcome of the soft-looking FY19 film distribution agenda and continues to monitor the challenges in dealing with structural headwinds in cinema exhibition. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.40 from $2.80.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.22
If VRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.54, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of -34.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates VRL as Neutral (3) -
Village Roadshow has raised $50m which, along with the divestment of Wet 'n' Wild Sydney, means there is a combined $87m in proceeds to reduce debt. Macquarie notes the potential for further asset sales.
The broker believes earnings visibility for the near term is challenging, although an improvement is expected into FY19. Neutral rating and target reduced to $2.00 from $2.55.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If VRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.54, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.90 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of -34.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $44.64
Morgan Stanley rates XRO as Overweight (1) -
The broker has not at all changed its view and maintains an Overweight rating and $50 target for Xero following the announced departure of the CFO and COO.
Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $44.64 Difference: $5.36
If XRO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $40.52, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.45 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 558.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 34.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.4, implying annual growth of 367.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 119.4. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AGL | AGL ENERGY | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $21.90 |
| ALL | ARISTOCRAT LEISURE | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $31.08 |
| ALU | ALTIUM | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $20.59 |
| APX | APPEN | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $12.64 |
| AQG | ALACER GOLD | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.64 |
| BOQ | BANK OF QUEENSLAND | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $10.63 |
| BSL | BLUESCOPE STEEL | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $17.96 |
| FLT | FLIGHT CENTRE | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $64.73 |
| GDG | GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.16 |
| ING | INGHAMS GROUP | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.75 |
| JIN | JUMBO INTERACTIVE | Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $4.30 |
| MHJ | MICHAEL HILL | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.97 |
| MIN | MINERAL RESOURCES | No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $15.16 |
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $15.16 | ||
| NEA | NEARMAP | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.43 |
| OGC | OCEANAGOLD | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.78 |
| ORG | ORIGIN ENERGY | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $9.76 |
| PDL | PENDAL GROUP | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $9.08 |
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $9.08 | ||
| Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $9.08 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $9.08 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $9.08 | ||
| PTM | PLATINUM | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.49 |
| RRL | REGIS RESOURCES | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.08 |
| SGM | SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $15.61 |
| SYD | SYDNEY AIRPORT | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.14 |
| VRL | VILLAGE ROADSHOW | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.18 |
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.18 | ||
| XRO | XERO | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $44.64 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 13 |
| 3. Hold | 11 |
| 5. Sell | 4 |
Wednesday 11 July 2018
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
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This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
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