Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates ADA as Buy (1) -

Adacel Technologies' FY23 result missed Bell Potter's forecasts and guidance by more than -10%. Revenue outpaced but a lower gross margin drove the underlying miss.

The company closed June 30 with US$0.9m in cash - also a miss - and no dividend was declared. FY24 guidance was in line.

Management pointed to a strong pipeline, observing 70% of FY24 revenue was backlogged or held a high probability of renewal and expected to declare a dividend in September subject to the outcome of specific bids.

Bell Potter downgrades forecasts while acknowledging that an abnormally high level of tender activity could alter this over the next few months.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls -6% to 75c.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.19
If ADA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

Auckland International Airport has published additional information disclosure to that provided in the PSE4 pricing schedule published on June 8, and management advises it may have to raise equity between NZ$0bn and NZ$1bn to fund capital expenditure, if it wishes to retain its A-credit rating.

The disclosure note reaffirmed priced capital expenditure at roughly NZ$5.7bn, observes Macquarie, and updates non-price aeronautical capital at roughly $1bn.

Outperform rating retained. Target price is NZ$9.56.

Current Price is $7.58. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

Amcor's FY23 result met underlying guidance but Macquarie says June-quarter volumes trends were very weak and FY24 guidance appears to have disappointed.

Management suggests the worst should be over by the June half of FY24, as volumes recover and macro headwinds such as interest rates ease, with destocking pressure likely to ease by the end of 2023.

Management also advised that mergers and acquisitions were still being prioritised.

EPS forecasts fall -4.6% in FY24; and -5.3% in FY25.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $14.70 from $15.48.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $14.17 Difference: $0.53
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.46, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Underweight (5) -

FY23 results were in line with expectations yet, on first view, Morgan Stanley expects a negative reaction to Amcor's FY24 guidance of EPS of US67-71c, the midpoint of which sits -6% below expectations.

The absence of a new buyback program may also be a negative surprise. Underweight and the target is $14. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $14.17 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.46, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMC as Hold (3) -

While Amcor's FY23 underlying EPS was in line with management guidance in May, Morgans notes FY24 earnings guidance was much weaker than expected.

The second half of FY23 showed a worsening operating environment, with demand softening considerably and destocking from customers, explains the analyst. Volumes were down -7% in Q4 compared with -3% in Q3.

In the broker's view, the near-term demand outlook remains weak with customer destocking likely to persist for the remainder of the current half. FY24 guidance is for underlying EPS of between US67-71cps.

Morgans target falls to $14.25 from $15.20. Hold.

Target price is $14.25 Current Price is $14.17 Difference: $0.08
If AMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.46, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMC as Accumulate (2) -

Following FY23 results for Amcor, Ord Minnett raises its FY24 earnings estimate by 6% on a more positive outlook for consumer demand and based upon the company's cost-cutting initiatives. The higher forecast is also driven by a weaker Australian dollar.

FY23 adjusted profit was in line with the broker's forecast and the board declared a US12.25cps final dividend bringing the full year payout to US49cps. Aussie shareholders will receive an unfranked final dividend of 18.77cps, explains the broker.

The broker's target rises by 9% to $17.50. Accumulate.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $14.17 Difference: $3.33
If AMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.46, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

ANZ Bank has updated on its balance sheet settings. Morgan Stanley notes there is no disclosure on trends in pre-provision profit while loan growth is tracking slightly ahead of estimates. Capital and credit quality are also in line with expectations.

Equal-weight rating and $25.20 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $25.20 Current Price is $24.59 Difference: $0.61
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.47, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

Morgans makes only minor EPS forecast upgrades for ANZ Bank following a review of Q3 disclosures.

The broker identifies a strong capital position, reduced risk weighted assets, solid lending growth and only a mild deterioration in asset quality with healthy provisioning.

Management noted the ongoing mix shift towards higher interest rate savings and term deposit accounts, which the analyst explains is a margin headwind that all banks have noted in their outlooks.

Hold. The target rises to $26.13 from $25.74.

Target price is $26.13 Current Price is $24.59 Difference: $1.54
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.47, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Accumulate (2) -

Highlights for Ord Minnett from ANZ Bank's Q3 results include above-market lending volume growth, a strong capital position and a moderate rise in loan book stress.

As banking peers have recently noted margin softness from home loan competition and customers switching to term deposits, the analyst suggests stronger loan growth for ANZ implies weaker margins.

Accumulate rating and $31 target maintained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $24.59 Difference: $6.41
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.47, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APM as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Bell Potter has initiated coverage on employment services company APM Human Services International with a Hold rating and $2.04 target price.

The broker observes significant post-IPO (2021) weakness and a disparity between consensus revenue forecasts for a 28% increase versus a -12% fall in net profit forecasts.

Bell Potter doubts margins will return to former highs given falling performance payments (which typically generate high margins) combined with low-margin acquisitions in the US. New acquisitions and contracts have raised other problems around working capital, says the broker.

The broker expects weak margins will continue to weigh in the short term but that the medium to longer term prognosis is better.

Target price is $2.04 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.3
If APM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.90, suggesting upside of 62.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ARU as Buy (1) -

Arafura Rare Earths's FY23 net loss missed Bell Potter's forecasts in a tough macro year for NdPr. The company closed June 30 with $128.8m in cash.

But management describes it as a pivotal year, in which it has signed major binding offtake agreements for 43% of nameplate capacity, with about 85% of targeted production secured under binding offtake prior to financing.

The broker forecasts rising cash burn and capital expenditure over FY24 as project construction ramps up and expects a financing decision in the June half of 2024.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to 65c from 72c.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.41
If ARU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 171% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Outperform (1) -

ASX's FY23 result was broadly in line with consensus forecasts but appears to have missed Macquarie's expectations, the main misses being services revenue (-22.2% on the previous year) and cash market settlement revenue (-14%). FY24 guidance was unchanged.

Macquarie believes the treatment of capital expenditure in FY24 guidance, which falls below guidance, implies operating expenditure is insufficient over the medium term, providing a risk to consensus.

FY24 EPS forecasts fall -4.4% to reflect the fall in ancillary revenue and slightly higher operating expenditure; and fall -4.3% in FY25, before rising 0.9%.

Outperform rating retained. Target price eases to $64.50 from $65.00.

Target price is $64.50 Current Price is $60.50 Difference: $4
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.88, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Underweight (5) -

The second half underlying net profit from ASX missed Morgan Stanley's estimates. Market activity is taking longer to recover and costs appear to be higher for longer and the broker does not envisage earnings growing until FY26.

On the positive side,  there is cost saving potential in FY25 and the broker notes ASX expects to update on cost reduction options at the first half result. Futures volumes also increased in FY23, a positive.

On the negative side, ASX is under pressure in clearing & settlements following the delays to its CHESS upgrade. Morgan Stanley retains an Underweight rating and reduces the target to $53.50 from $55.55. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $53.50 Current Price is $60.50 Difference: minus $7 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $62.88, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ASX as Hold (3) -

While broadly in line with consensus, Morgans assesses a mixed FY23 result from ASX with positive revenue growth in two of the four business segments.

The target falls to $63.80 from $64.90 on marginally higher operating expenses than the analyst previously estimated. It's felt an elevated expense profile will continue to weigh on the stock price. Hold retained.

An expense review is underway by management. FY24 total expense growth guidance was reiterated at -12-15%. 

Target price is $63.80 Current Price is $60.50 Difference: $3.3
If ASX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.88, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASX as Accumulate (2) -

There were higher FY23 costs than Ord Minnett was expecting and the broker's target price falls by -3% from $75, though at the current  price shares are trading materially below the new $72.50 fair value estimate.

The broker suggest the market is too focused on rising near-term expenses and capital expenditure which are vital to securing the company's long-term economic moat.

The Accumulate rating is unchanged.

Target price is $72.50 Current Price is $60.50 Difference: $12
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.88, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BAP as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

The FY23 results from Bapcor were in line with expectations with the highlight being strong cash conversion on the back of a reduction in inventory.

While the share price has rallied, given modest expectations and no changes to targets, UBS envisages risks around the underlying business, particularly for the short term.

Medium-term growth is dependent on executing on the "Better Than Before" target as trade growth normalises. The broker considers the valuation fair, given the balance of risks, and downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is steady at $7.20.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.59 Difference: $0.61
If BAP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Add (1) -

Some key large cap Mining picks under coverage by Morgans are starting to represent value on a longer time frame. This comes as the ASX200 Materials index has fallen by around -7% in the last month, partly attributed to weakness in Chinese growth indicators.

From a value perspective, the broker’s top preferences are BHP Group and South32, while Mineral Resources provides an attractive diversified lithium exposure.

BHP Group is currently trading at an appealing discount to Morgans valuation, and the combination of iron ore, copper and coal as likely to perform strongly. In particular, the fundamentals for iron ore are considered to be healthier than consensus implies.

The Add rating and $51 target are unchanged.

Target price is $51.00 Current Price is $43.11 Difference: $7.89
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.08, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLX as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

FY23 gross margins of 68% from Beacon Lighting were in line with estimates and, while the company expects these will be in line in FY24, Citi envisages rapid growth in the trade business is a risk, given its lower margin profile, forecasting gross margins of 67% in FY24.

On further analysis the broker cuts FY24 and FY25 net profit forecast by -26% and -17%, respectively, to reflect slower sales and higher costs.

Beyond the short term, which Citi acknowledges is challenging from a sales perspective, the growth prospects are positive. The company has competitive advantages around its design capabilities, vertical integration and scale.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target raised to $2.10 from $1.73.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.3
If BLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BLX as Add (1) -

Beacon Lighting’s FY23 profit and earnings were slight beats against Morgans forecasts and the 67.7% gross profit margin was 70bps higher than forecast.

The broker believes management executed well during FY23 on its number one priority of gaining share in the large and fragmented Trade market.

Trading so far in FY24 is in line with management’s expectations. The Add rating is unchanged and the target climbs to $2.20 from $2.00.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.4
If BLX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CNI as Neutral (3) -

It is UBS's initial assessment that Centuria Capital's FY23 financial numbers came out in line with forecasts (11.6c in dividends was pre-announced) but guidance for FY24 is well below market consensus (-11-13%) though merely in line with the broker's forecasts.

Guidance for a reduced dividend of 10c equally falls short of the 11c expected by consensus. Again, UBS's forecast was 10c.

The broker explains lower performance fees and lower development profits, on top of restrained transaction volumes plus increased finance costs are creating headwinds for the year ahead.

Lower gearing is considered a minor positive. Neutral. Target $1.68.

Target price is $1.68 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.16
If CNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 34.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COF as Underweight (5) -

Centuria Office REIT posted a FY23 FFO of 15.6c per security, lower than prior guidance and Morgan Stanley's estimates. The miss stemmed from the cost of debt which came in higher anticipated.

FY24 guidance of FFO of 13.8c and distribution of 12.0c imply a -13% contraction compared with FY23.

Morgan Stanley observes the impact stems from two major vacancies, and it appears the company does not assume any lease up in these assets over the coming year.

Management has signalled that leasing conditions in both Sydney and Docklands will remain challenged for the foreseeable future.

Morgan Stanley is cautious, given the leasing difficulties, retaining an Underweight rating and $1.60 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.23
If COF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DHG as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett still believes property transaction volume will fall over the longer-term but is now more constructive on the near-term and raises its target for Domain Holdings Australia by 6% to $2.50 following in-line FY23 results. It's felt progress is being made on efficiencies.

New listings fell by -14% in FY23, and even with yield increases of 8%, sales for the company's digital business segments fell by -7%, in line with the analyst's forecast.

The broker suggests the market is too optimistic on management's ability to continually raise prices and retains its Lighten recommendation. As opposed to chief competitor, REA Group ((REA)), spending on Domain is considered discretionary.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: minus $1.26 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.65, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Second half results from Domain Holdings Australia missed estimates as weak market conditions persisted. In the outlook for FY24 cost guidance is in line with expectations although the broker notes capital expenditure intensity has risen because of reinvestment.

UBS lowers FY24-26 estimates for EBITDA by around -10% and EPS by around -20% to reflect softer volumes, the exit of the home loans business and a higher D&A profile.

Neutral rating reiterated. Target is reduced to $3.85 from $4.00.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.09
If DHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.65, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DXS as Accumulate (2) -

FY23 funds from operations (FFO) for Dexus landed at 64cpu while the distribution was 51.6cpu. Both were at the upper end of guidance and were marginal beats versus Ord Minnett's forecasts.

The broker is expecting a 48cpu distribution for FY24, in line with guidance, due to lower trading profits. Excluding the latter, management guides to an adjusted FFO broadly in line with FY23.

The analyst feels the REIT made reasonable progress over FY23 despite the dire market narratives around the Office sector. Office occupancy increased marginally with only a small increase in incentives.

The Accumulate rating and $10.80 target are maintained.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $7.53 Difference: $3.27
If DXS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.93, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EQR as Speculative Buy (1) -

EQ Resources is now the world's largest tungsten source outside of China, informs Morgans, following the acquisition of Spanish-based Barruecopardo tungsten for EUR35m using debt.

The analyst also notes the company's Mt Carbine mine in Queensland is now producing from the re-developed open pit.

The new debt can be serviced by out of operational cashflow, according to the broker.

The target climbs to 13c from 10c. Speculative Buy.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.05
If EQR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Evolution Mining's FY23 reported EBITDA of $845m was below Citi's estimates. Underlying earnings were in line. The broker also incorporates 32km of new drilling, noting the Earnest Henry resource is now 101.5mt at 1.27% copper and 0.75 g/t gold.

The bulk of the additions are for the connection of mineralisation between Ernie Junior and the main orebody. The company will give consideration to the new data in deciding infrastructure placement.

The Neutral rating and $3.60 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.24
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Evolution Mining's FY23 result missed Macquarie's earnings (EBITDA) forecasts but outpaced on net cash and the dividend was in line. FY24 guidance was retained.

The company also recorded a resource update which raised gold ounce expectations 3% and copper 5% after depletion, says Ernest Henry.

EPS forecasts rise 6% in FY24 after accounting for $20m of deferred revenue and are steady thereafter.

Underperform rating retained. Target price rises 3% to $3.20 from $3.10 to reflect the company's improved net debt position.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -

At first glance, FY23 earnings missed Morgan Stanley's estimates, although the financials are generally in line and guidance is unchanged. The dividend was ahead of expectations.

The update on the Ernest Henry resource means the company has added around 40% to tonnage in the past 18 months. Further drilling has also the potential to increase the resource base.

Overweight rating unchanged. Target is $3.90. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.54
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Hold (3) -

FY23 results for Evolution Mining missed consensus forecasts due to weather impacts at Ernest Henry and higher operating and inputs costs, as well as currency losses. The target falls to $3.20 from $3.40. Hold.

Gold production for FY23 was 651.1koz at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1,450/oz.

Management expects FY24 will deliver higher cash generation via capital discipline, a reduction in capital intensity and debt restructuring. The board declared a fully franked 2cps dividend.

FY24 guidance is for 770koz of gold at an AISC of $1,370/oz (with 5% leeway either side), which represents an 18% increase in production and a -6% decrease in cost compared to FY23, the broker highlights.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Following yesterday's FY23 results, Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for Evolution Mining to Hold from Lighten as the share price has slumped by -12% since June quarterly results on July 17.

Apart from the share price fall, the broker also justifies the upgrade after gaining more confidence in the Mungari operations following a site visit and in the belief negative news (impairments) has passed.

While FY23 earnings were a miss versus the broker's forecast, the 2cps dividend was double the forecast. The target rises to $3.25 from $3.15.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FBU as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett leaves its Accumulate rating and $5.50 target unchanged for Fletcher Building following in-line FY23 results. It was considered a solid outcome given the cyclical challenges facing the A&NZ construction sectors.

The 9.4% earnings margin was stronger than the analyst expected despite a -6% miss on sales.

A fully imputed, but unfranked dividend of NZ16cps was declared. The overall payout ratio for FY23 fell to 64% from 73% in FY22 due to cash outflows relating to the New Zealand International Convention Centre, explained management.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.54 Difference: $0.96
If FBU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Reduce (5) -

Some key large cap Mining picks under coverage by Morgans are starting to represent value on a longer time frame. This comes as the ASX200 Materials index has fallen by around -7% in the last month, partly attributed to weakness in Chinese growth indicators.

From a value perspective, the broker’s top preferences are BHP Group and South32, while Mineral Resources provides an attractive diversified lithium exposure.

Regarding Fortescue Metals, while the broker believes fundamentals for iron ore are healthier than consensus implies, the analyst increases assumed pricing discounts over FY24  and FY24. It's thought the marketability of low-grade iron ore will fall from peak levels.

The Reduce rating is unchanged and the target falls to $16.20 from $18.30.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $20.13 Difference: minus $3.93 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.55, suggesting downside of -18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Goodman Group met expectations in FY23. The record like-for-like growth of 4.7% potentially reflects under-rented property being re-leased and on further analysis Citi envisages potential for this to improve further.

The broker envisages upside to the FY24 EPS guidance for 9% growth and forecasts 11%. There is a strong pipeline of data centres to support medium-term development earnings.

The company is also looking at operating directly on the operation/infrastructure side of data centres, particular given cross-over benefits from leasing to similar customers. Citi retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $24.50 from $24.30.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $20.88 Difference: $3.62
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.40, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

Goodman Group's FY23 result outpaced guidance for the sixth consecutive year and, while FY24 guidance missed Macquarie's forecasts, the broker spies upside risk should the company improve its development earnings (EBIT).

Management reiterated its exposure to higher-margin data centre real-estate (now 30% of work in progress), which is enjoying rezoning benefits from industrial land into data centre land.

Residential rezoning is also working in the company's favour.

EPS forecasts fall -2% in FY24 to reflect the guidance miss; and fall -2.3% in FY25 and -1.5% in FY26 with lower management earnings forecast to offset higher development earnings.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to $23.52 from $22.66.

Target price is $23.52 Current Price is $20.88 Difference: $2.64
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.40, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

The FY23 EPS of 94.3c was in line while guidance for FY24 EPS is for 9% growth, with Morgan Stanley, at first view, observing Goodman Group has maintained its tradition of providing first-time guidance below consensus expectations.

The company has delayed recognition of performance fees, with none booked in the second half, and the broker estimates $100m may have been pushed into FY24.

Overweight rating and target price of $24.79. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $24.79 Current Price is $20.88 Difference: $3.91
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.40, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMG as Buy (1) -

While FY23 results and FY24 guidance appear a little soft, on further analysis UBS notes there is scope for upgrades as medium-term development earnings have been de-risked, and the size of Goodman Group's opportunity as a real estate developer equates to $27-36bn in end value.

The company is investigating partnerships with "hyper-scalers" to deliver complete solutions as a developer/operator in data centres. 

UBS finds this announcement significant because historically Goodman Group only looked at power shell developments. Over time the valuation upside could be crystallised by introducing infrastructure investors alongside Goodman Group.

The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $25 from $23.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $20.88 Difference: $4.12
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.40, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GOZ as Buy (1) -

FY23 FFO per share was slightly ahead of Citi's estimates while the distribution increased by 2.9%, in line with expectations.

On further analysis the broker reduces FY24 and FY25 FFO per share by -7.3% and -7.0%, respectively, taking into account higher borrowing that includes increased hedging.

A key potential catalyst for Growthpoint Properties Australia will be better-than-expected transaction capitalisation rates in the market, the broker observes, although the bid/offer spreads remain relatively wide for office.

The portfolio is currently 7% vacant with 2% in advanced negotiations. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $3.00 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.47
If GOZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.29, suggesting upside of 37.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOZ as Outperform (1) -

Growthpoint Properties Australia's FY23 result broadly met consensus and Macquarie's forecasts but FY24 guidance disappointed both by -8% at the midpoint. Macquarie sheets this back to another disappointing performance on net profit income.

But the broker, after making sharp cuts, believes earnings may have found a floor, with office leasing the key to upside. Macquarie expects a continuation of tough times but considers its valuation to be overly pessimistic.

FFOps forecasts fall -8.4% in FY24; -8% in FY25; and -6.7% in FY26.

Outperform rating retained. Target price falls -12% to $2.82 from $3.20.

Target price is $2.82 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.29
If GOZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.29, suggesting upside of 37.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GQG as Outperform (1) -

GQG Partners June half top-line result outpaced consensus and Macquarie's forecasts but the broker observes expense growth remains elevated (a miss) as management targets growth investments, providing limited operating leverage, undermining strong margins.

Macquarie says recent investment performances were mixed due to the megacap Tech rally but says the fund's risk-adjusted returns still lead the market, and hence the broker forecasts rising net inflows.

EPS forecasts rise 3.5% for FY23; 0.7% for FY24; and 0.5% thereafter.

Macquarie is on research restriction.

Current Price is $1.50. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 37.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GQG as Overweight (1) -

First half net profit from GQG Partners beat Morgan Stanley's estimates. This stemmed from higher base and performance fees with total revenue growing 6%.

In an initial assessment the broker expects the share price reaction will be positive. The investment performance remains strong with almost all funds five-star rated by Morningstar.

The broker notes the company recently stated its intention is to submit a proposal to acquire Pacific Current Group ((PAC)), which could add diversity and new investment capabilities.

Overweight rating and $2 target. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.5
If GQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 37.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GQG as Add (1) -

Morgans makes only minor changes to its EPS forecasts for GQG Partners following 1H that came in slightly ahead of expectations. Net inflows of US$6.2bn in the 1H were considered strong though decelerated through the half.

While near-term investment performance has been mixed, all strategies have outperformed on a five-year and inception basis, points out the broker. It's felt the market is waiting for an update on the company's diversification and broader strategy.

The Add rating and $2 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.5
If GQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 37.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GQG as Accumulate (2) -

Despite the difficult macroeconomic backdrop, Ord Minnett assesses a solid 1H result for GQG Partners with positive net flow and earnings exceeding the broker's forecasts.

Higher-than-expected performance fees provided a boost, notes the analyst, with average funds under management (FUM) increasing by 4.6% over the period.

The broker suggests the company's strong investment performance will support longer-term net flows and earnings growth.

Accumulate rating. The target slips to $2.15 from $2.20 on easing earnings forecasts due to the tough economic climate.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.65
If GQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 37.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HDN as Outperform (1) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT's FY23 result broadly met consensus and Macquarie's forecasts and the REIT guided to strong growth in net operating income in FY24 of 4%.

Macquarie appreciates the 6%-plus leasing spreads and valuation support following the divestment of the Midland LFR asset at a -1.5% discount to December 22 book value.

The broker also appreciates the medium-term earnings growth profiles, expecting a stronger earnings performance through FY25 and FY26 as interest-rate pressures ease.

EPS forecasts rise 1.4% in FY24; fall -1% in FY25; and rise 0.4% in FY26. Outperform rating retained. Target price rises 1% to $1.26 from $1.24.

Target price is $1.26 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.09
If HDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HDN as Equal-weight (3) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT posted FY23 results that were in line with guidance. Morgan Stanley observes FY24 guidance represents no growth and is lower than expected, with FFO of 8.6c and a distribution of 8.3c.

At first glance, the broker notes growth expenditure has been upside to $600m. Gearing is 32.8% on a pro forma basis, with further capital recycling plans in place to move into daily needs retail and away from large format retail.

Equal Weight rating. Target is $1.40. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.23
If HDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HDN as Add (1) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT's FY23 result was in line with guidance. Strong growth in property income offset higher property and interest costs, explains Morgans.

The broker highlights resilience for leasing with incentives stable at around 5% and re-leasing spreads slightly higher at 6%.

Management has been focusing on derisking, with only 6% of leases expiring in FY24 and by re-mixing the tenant base to more defensive daily-needs-focus retailers, explains the analyst.

The target falls to $1.39 from $1.50 on lower forecasts for funds from operations (FFO) due to higher interest costs and impacts from flagged asset sales. Add.

Target price is $1.39 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.22
If HDN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HDN as Hold (3) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT's FY23 result met guidance and Ord Minnett's forecasts. FY24 guidance (in line) proved a positive surprise given poor peer performances, observes the broker, thanks to a swaps restructure (higher hedging in FY24 for a lower hedged position in FY26).

Rent collections, leasing spreads and incentives all held up, net operating income growth was strong and occupancy sat at 99%. The company increased hedging to 92% at a lower than forecast fixed rate.

Net tangible assets fell -2.6% to $1.48 due to softer valuations.

Ord Minnett observes the company is on track with its FY24 development completions, which will be funded through the existing debt facility, and that it is happy to take gearing to 35%.

Hold recommendation retained. Target price rises 1.7% to $1.26 from $1.24.

Target price is $1.26 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.09
If HDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HDN as Buy (1) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT delivered FY23 results that were in line. Guidance is ahead of UBS estimates, underpinned by lower debt costs following a hedge restructuring.

UBS updates estimates to reflect the revised hedging profile and higher FY24 net operating income growth as well as the divestment of Midland.

On further analysis the broker finds the  resilient income stream and growth initiatives compelling, retaining a Buy rating. Target is raised to $1.38 from $1.36.

Target price is $1.38 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.21
If HDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ING as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Inghams Group's FY23 result outpaced Bell Potter's forecasts by a decent clip thanks largely to a lower than forecast tax rate, although top line revenue was also strong.

The company closed June 30 with net debt of $394.7m, marking two straight years of declines.

No formal FY24 guidance was provided but management advised operational performance and prices of key feed ingredients had stabilised (the latter remains high); poultry volumes were recovering to norms; capital expenditure was forecast to rise about $30m in FY24; and the company had finalised NSR increases and planned to keep pricing ahead of inflation.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold, the broker appreciating the company's stronger balance sheet and spying an FY24 growth runway. Target price jumps to $3.90 from $2.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.71
If ING meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ING as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Inghams Group's FY23 result outpaced consensus forecasts thanks to a sharp rise in poultry prices, which allowed earnings to outpace an 11.9% increase in underlying costs.

Macquarie spies room for further price increases over FY24, observes earnings (EBITDA) margins have normalised, and expects automation could yield further improvements.

EPS forecasts rise 7.8% in FY24; 5% in FY25; and 5.1% in FY26.

Macquarie downgrades Inghams Group's rating to Neutral from Outperform given a rally in the share price. Target price rises to $3.30 from $2.97 to reflect the earnings beat and higher peer multiples.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.11
If ING meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ING as Add (1) -

Morgans declares a strong earnings recovery is well underway at Inghams Group after reviewing materially better-than-expected FY23 results. Earnings and profit were beats of 7.5% and 10.5% against the broker's forecasts.

The board also showed confidence in the outlook, in the analysts view, by declaring a 10cps final dividend, ahead of the 5.5cps forecast by the broker.

While no formal guidance was provided, management stated there has been a positive start to FY24.

Given the company's strong operating and financial leverage, profit upgrades by Morgans over FY24-26 outshine earnings upgrades, rising by 9.1%, 7.8% and 6.9%, respectively. The target rises to $3.78 from $3.15. Add.

Target price is $3.78 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.59
If ING meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ING as Accumulate (2) -

Inghams Group's FY23 result appears to have pleased Ord Minnett, thanks to strong rises in poultry prices which outpaced cost inflation.

The broker observes feed prices remain elevated but expects profitability to continue improving in FY24 as lagging price rises kick in, but that earnings (EBITDA) margins will ease due to an accounting quirk (in other words, it's all good).

Ord Minnett appreciates the long-term profile of chicken, observing it is cheaper than other proteins, and estimates a five-year annual compound growth rate of 12%, pointing to supporting fundamentals such as a rising population, rising chicken consumption and on the operating front, improved margins.

Accumulate rating retained. Target price rises to $3.70 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.51
If ING meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ING as Neutral (3) -

The Inghams Group FY23 result was ahead of UBS estimates. Price was a key factor in the earnings improvement as the broker notes the company successfully pushed through average selling price increases of 13% in the second half.

No formal earnings guidance for FY24 was provided although the business has experienced a recovery in farming performance to normalised levels and price increases have been successfully implemented while feed costs have stabilised.

On further analysis, UBS asserts it is attracted to the leading position of the company in the Australasian poultry market and retains a Neutral rating, with the FY24 PE estimate of 14x in line with the long-term average. Target rises to $3.25 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.06
If ING meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPH as Overweight (1) -

IPH had been added to the list of key small/mid cap ideas where Morgan Stanley has high conviction on earnings heading into reporting season along with outperformance into FY24.

When the FY23 result came out, it proved a "small beat" against market consensus, the broker comments, revealing the performance in Asia was strong, but A&NZ was soft, with Canada better-than-expected.

A positive bonus came with the acquisition of Ridout & Maybee, for A$74m, to add to the Canadian presence. The broker sees ongoing tailwinds from a weakening AUD. No guidance was provided, as per usual.

Overweight rating. Target $10.50. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.11 Difference: $2.39
If IPH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.51, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPH as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

FY23 results for IPH slightly exceeded Morgans expectations with EBITDA growth flat in Asia and down by -5% in A&NZ.

The final dividend of 17.5cps was up 8.2% on the previous corresponding period, and there was $284m of net debt as at June 30.

The broker downgrades its rating to Hold from Add on valuation and lowers its target to $8.90 from $9.20. It's thought some underlying pressures in the Australian and Asian segments will persist into FY24, offset by acquisition contributions.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $8.11 Difference: $0.79
If IPH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.51, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPH as Buy (1) -

UBS considers the Canadian acquisition strategically positive and accretive for IPH as its Buy thesis is centred on M&A being the key driver of the stock. Another opportunity is also being actively pursued and should support the share price.

The broker lifts estimates for EPS by 6-8% over FY24-26. The FY23 result was better than feared in terms of Australasia while Asia was weaker because a large client exited China. Target is steady at $9.80.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $8.11 Difference: $1.69
If IPH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.51, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LFS as Sell (5) -

Latitude Group had issued a profit warning in late May and today's FY23 release remains in line with that market update, comment analysts at Citi in an early response.

The analysts point out all operating line items performed as expected, but also that the profit overall is down -90% from the year prior.

The balance sheet turns out weaker-than-expected, hence no surprise there was no dividend. The broker had expected 4c. Management has reiterated FY23 net profit guidance of $15-25m.

Citi believes question marks remain around the demand for personal credit, the retail environment into FY24 and any residual cyber impacts from a regulatory/cost perspective.

Sell rating. Target $0.95.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If LFS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.95, suggesting downside of -18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LM8 as Outperform (1) -

Lunnon Metals has announced an $18m placement (it already has firm commitments at 90c a share) and a $2.5m share purchase plan (also at 90c) to fund exploration and study work at its Kambalda projects.

Macquarie expects the company will be well funded post the raising, with $35m cash on hand and no debt.

EPS forecasts fall -7% to -8% across FY24 to FY27 to reflect the equity dilution.

Outperform rating retained. Target price falls -7% to $1.30 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.41
If LM8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MFG as Hold (3) -

At first glance, it seems Magellan Financial's FY23 result has missed expectations with the board making up for it through a much higher-than-anticipated dividend of $1.167 when Ord Minnett was only expecting 76.9c.

Ord Minnett does point out today's "miss" is smaller against consensus forecasts. The dividend includes a special dividend of 30c.

Hold. Target $10.70.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $9.20 Difference: $1.5
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.84, suggesting downside of -15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Buy (1) -

Upon initial glance, UBS comments Magellan Financial's adjusted net profit for FY23 was in line, but today's release also includes capital management in the form of a special dividend.

Management has also guided towards lower funds management costs and governance changes; more positives.

UBS had previously advised investors could simply sit on the stock and wait for momentum to turn, with limited further downside seen.

Target $10. Buy.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.20 Difference: $0.8
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.84, suggesting downside of -15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGH as Outperform (1) -

Maas Group's FY23 earnings beat Macquarie by 4%, while profit fell -2% short on higher interest and D&A expense. Cash generation was a material improvement on FY22 and should continue to improve, the broker suggests.

Revenues from residential land sales fell to 41% of total from 60% a year ago. Maas is currently finding it easier to sell built product and will pause build-to-rent in FY24 to focus on delivering the existing pipeline and sourcing a capital partner.

Construction Materials should start seeing solid demand in FY24 and beyond from renewable energy zones, while Resi settlements are expected to be consistent with FY23, Macquarie notes.

Outperform and $3.50 target retained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.16 Difference: $0.34
If MGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MGH as Add (1) -

Maas Group reported FY23 pro-forma earnings at the upper end of guidance and around 4% ahead of forecasts by consensus and Morgans.

Morgans lowers its  FY24 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by around -3.8% due to weakness in the residential division and management’s decision to slow ‘build-to-rent’ delivery in FY24.

That aside, the broker believes Maas Group is well placed to grow and FY23 results dispelled a few concerns around gearing and the business’s capacity to generate free cashflow through a slowing residential real estate cycle.

The Add rating is kept and the target rises to $3.95 from $3.70 due to a re-rating of the company's peer group.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.16 Difference: $0.79
If MGH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MIN as Add (1) -

Some key large cap Mining picks under coverage by Morgans are starting to represent value on a longer time frame. This comes as the ASX200 Materials index has fallen by around -7% in the last month, partly attributed to weakness in Chinese growth indicators.

From a value perspective, the broker’s top preferences are BHP Group and South32, while Mineral Resources provides an attractive diversified lithium exposure.

The broker's Add rating and $84 target are maintained for Mineral Resources.

Target price is $84.00 Current Price is $62.70 Difference: $21.3
If MIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $78.29, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWH as Neutral (3) -

NRW Holdings's headline numbers were in line with Macquarie and guidance, although cash flow was weaker than expected, while earnings margins were flat.

FY24 guidance was better than expected, and imply margin growth. The broker notes more than 95% of FY24 base revenue is already secured and the pipeline remains robust.

Macquarie has updated forecasts to reflect the stronger guidance and has lifted the margin outlook for FY25 and beyond. Target rises to $2.70 from $2.50, Neutral retained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.01
If NWH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWH as Buy (1) -

NRW Holdings posted FY23 results that were in line with guidance and UBS estimates. The mining division stood out amid strong margins. FY24 earnings guidance is for EBITA of $175-185m.

The main negative was the unexpected earnings deterioration in the second half for the METS division, namely subsidiary Primero, which was significantly affected by cost overruns.

UBS retains a Buy rating on the basis that the stock offers solid earnings leverage to the upcoming resource expenditure cycle. Target is raised to $3.15 from $3.10.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.46
If NWH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NXD as Buy (1) -

NextEd Group's FY23 trading update disappointed Ord Minnett, and follows a recent miss on guidance. The FY23 result is due on August 28.

The broker observes continuing covid setting for visas, in particular the 408 Visa, is hampering progress, and FY24 guidance assumes the situation will continue, resulting in a sharp fall in FY24 EPS forecasts. Meanwhile, lower value ELICOS students are constituting a larger proportion of revenue.

Ord Minnett appreciates the company's strong net cash position and believes the recent sell-off in the company's shares provides a good entry point. It also spies M&A opportunity.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $1.15 from $1.65.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.3
If NXD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

North American earnings were the key driver of an earnings beat for Orora, up 15% year on year, while margins of 5.1% were up from 0.9% and ahead of Macquarie's 4.7% forecast. Focus now on North America's top-line and broader cyclical recovery prospects on box market rebound.

Orora believes there is potential for China wine volumes to return in 2H24 but the benefit would be more FY25 timing. Regarding potential acquisitions, management remains active but disciplined, focusing on Orora Packaging Solutions.

Outperform retained, target rises to $3.95 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.26
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORA as Equal-weight (3) -

It is Morgan Stanley's assessment Orora's FY23 result beat forecasts by 2%, or by 4% when compared against market consensus. While the broker had concerns about North America, the result over there surprised by 5% on strong margins.

While market consensus is positioned for a flat outlook, management at the packaging firm is confident FY24 will see growth, the analysts point out.

In North America, further margin expansion is forecast to outweigh volume decline and in Australasia softness in glass (lower wine volumes) should be compensated through incremental volume growth.

Target shifts to $3.70 from $3.40. Equal-weight rating. Industry view: In-line. 

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.01
If ORA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORA as Add (1) -

Earnings for both A&NZ and North America exceeded Morgans forecasts, as did the overall FY23 result.

Revenue was a miss against forecasts by the analyst and consensus by -5% and -4%, respectively. Despite a -5% drop in revenue for North America, earnings increased by 15% (in US dollars).

This US earnings performance follows on from management targeting higher value customers and exiting or replace unprofitable customers, explains Morgans.

The broker highlights a 50bps rise in group margin to 7.5% and gearing at the bottom end of management's targeted range.

The target rises to $4.05 from $3.75. The valuation remains attractive despite the recent strong performance in the share price and the analyst retains an Add rating.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.36
If ORA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Origin Energy's FY23 earnings beat Macquarie by 3%, with Octopus and Energy Markets driving the beat. APLNG delivered a strong dividend. FY24 guidance is above expectation in Energy Markets and more than offsets slightly higher APLNG costs.

A cashflow surge over FY24-26 can support both a higher dividend and the capital investment needed in renewables, Macquarie suggests, which will be spread over numerous years.

The lingering question is the timing of the Eraring closure with any deferral, if coming with government support, being positive to earnings in FY26 and FY27.

Outperform retained, target rises to $9.00 from $8.89.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.51 Difference: $0.49
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes a better performance from Energy Markets helped Origin Energy to a 6% EBITDA beat in FY23. The final 20c dividend, however, missed forecasts for either 24.8c (the broker) or 21.4c (consensus).

Management anticipates FY25 electricity gross profit to decline YoY on declining default offers, perhaps offset by Kraken savings, the broker highlights.

The $8.88 target and Overweight rating are unchanged. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $8.88 Current Price is $8.51 Difference: $0.37
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Following FY23 results, Morgans assesses a strong 2H for Origin Energy due to a material contribution from its share of Octopus Energy.

Underlying Energy Markets earnings were a slight miss though underlying net profit was a strong beat against the broker's forecast, with $139m of the $747m total deriving from Octopus.

The analyst sees limited upside for investors staying in the company's shares though there is a chance of more franked dividends prior to the EIG and Brookfield deal completing. Hold. The target rises to $8.55 from $8.48.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $8.51 Difference: $0.04
If ORG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

On second take, Ord Minnett confirms Origin Energy's FY23 result was a beat, thanks to an improvement in the utility business.

A 5% beat on the broker's proportional earnings (EBITDA) forecast was sheeted back to a very strong performance from its UK subsidiary Octopus Energy. Integrated Gas also delivered strongly. Profit after tax outpaced the broker by 19%.

Ord Minnett now considers Brookfield's $8.90 offer to be less compelling.

The broker observes weaker forward electricity prices augur a modest decline in earnings in 2025.

Hold rating retained. Target price rise 1% to $8.80 from $8.70.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $8.51 Difference: $0.29
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as No Rating (-1) -

Origin Energy's FY23 results revealed a net profit of $747m that was 6% ahead of expectations. FY24 energy market EBITDA guidance is well ahead of consensus forecasts as well.

Having assessed the potential growth sustainability of earnings from Octopus Energy, UBS revises forecasts and expects the electricity retail business will support 9% gross margins.

Licensing revenue from the Kraken business can also grow strongly in the next 2-3 years. Restrictions on rating and target remain.

Current Price is $8.51. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PAN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie attended a site visit at Panoramic Resources' Savannah operation, which included a tour of the underground mine, processing plant, surface infrastructure, and Wyndham port.

The visit highlighted that the miner has improved operational flexibility underground compared to a year ago, with multiple mining areas at its disposal.

However the nickel price is down -35% year to date and balance sheet leverage is a headwind. Neutral and 6c target retained.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.01
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PWH as Buy (1) -

FY23 net profit from PWR Holdings was 1% ahead of Citi's estimates. Net profit margins of 18.4% were a slight miss to guidance of 19% because of ERP investment and lease exit costs.

The broker envisages potential for the stock to outperform as investors look through the margin miss and focus on the strong performance of Aerospace & Defence. No guidance for FY24 was provided. Buy rating and $11.55 target maintained.

Target price is $11.55 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: $2.55
If PWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.21, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIC as Buy (1) -

The FY23 result from Ridley Corp was in line with expectations. On the positive side, Project Boost delivered $5bn in EBITDA versus the broker's expectations for around $3.5m.

The broker expects $96.5m in EBITDA in FY24 underpinned by Project Boost, supply chain rationalisation and the ramp up of Novacq. Earnings forecasts are largely unchanged and a Buy rating and $2.50 target price are maintained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.35
If RIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Some key large cap Mining picks under coverage by Morgans are starting to represent value on a longer time frame. This comes as the ASX200 Materials index has fallen by around -7% in the last month, partly attributed to weakness in Chinese growth indicators.

From a value perspective, the broker’s top preferences are BHP Group and South32, while Mineral Resources provides an attractive diversified lithium exposure.

The broker points out Rio Tinto's recent underperformance compared to close peer BHP has widened significantly over the last month. At the same time the recent performance of Rio's Pilbara iron ore business has increased the analyst's conviction on the stock.

In addition, the fundamentals for iron ore are considered to be healthier than consensus implies.

Morgans upgrades its rating to Add from Hold and leaves its $122 target unchanged.

Target price is $122.00 Current Price is $104.77 Difference: $17.23
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $113.92, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Add (1) -

Some key large cap Mining picks under coverage by Morgans are starting to represent value on a longer time frame. This comes as the ASX200 Materials index has fallen by around -7% in the last month, partly attributed to weakness in Chinese growth indicators.

From a value perspective, the broker’s top preferences are BHP Group and South32, while Mineral Resources provides an attractive diversified lithium exposure.

The Add rating is maintained for South32 and the target rises to $5.20 from $5.15.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $1.52
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.48, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Neutral (3) -

Steadfast Group' s FY24 earnings guidance is 2.3% ahead of consensus to the mid-point, Macquarie notes, however with an additional $160m of capital expected to be deployed into the trapped capital initiative in FY24, weaker underlying growth has emerged.

This suggests Steadfast is reinvesting the top of the pricing cycle into network services and the agency division. The broker's forecasts imply only 8.6% underlying earnings growth in FY24, which seems low given the strength of the premium rate cycle.

Target rises to $6.40 from $6.30, Neutral retained.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.73 Difference: $0.67
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SDF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's initial assessment was for a solid FY23 result for Steadfast Group with FY24 guidance just ahead of consensus expectations.

Today the broker concludes the result plus guidance highlights the attractive and stable insurance broking growth on offer. The broker also suggests for the shares to obtain a premium multiple versus the sector, management will need to prove it can execute on its global expansion intentions.

The company is led by, in the broker's words, "an industry visionary founder", has its eyes on the US market and will provide an update on expansion plans at the AGM, scheduled for October 27th.

Target loses -10c to $6.30. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.73 Difference: $0.57
If SDF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SDF as Hold (3) -

Steadfast Group's FY23 result hit the upper range of guidance and met Ord Minnett's forecasts, thanks to high insurance premiums; and was struck on a mix of organic and inorganic growth.

FY24 guidance pleased the broker. Ord Minnett expects the company will continue to benefit from rising premiums in FY24, with earnings (EBITA) outpacing management guidance by 1.5%, thanks to acquisitions and high premiums. The broker spies upside risk.

The dividend hit the midpoint of guidance.

Hold rating retained. Target price rises 5% to $6 from $5.70.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.73 Difference: $0.27
If SDF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SDF as Buy (1) -

UBS notes, although the FY23 result was at the top of guidance, the slowdown in growth in agency was underwhelming. This stems from this segment being the engine room of historical growth and a reason for the broker's relative preference for Steadfast Group.

As agency margins are likely to compress further into FY24, the preference is switched to AUB Group ((AUB)).

Guidance for FY24 appears conservative and implies 8-10% organic growth and the broker notes the company is pushing harder on M&A and gearing to maintain a 10-15% EPS growth outlook.

Buy rating retained because of the potential upside from the planned foray into the US, which does not yet appear to be priced in. Target is steady at $6.80.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.73 Difference: $1.07
If SDF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SHL as Buy (1) -

The FY23 result and FY24 guidance from Sonic Healthcare were below expectations. Citi attributes most of the miss to estimates to legacy costs resulting from the pandemic.

The company did not provide specific revenue or margin guidance but indicated that July base organic revenue was up 8%.

The weaker Australian dollar should be a tailwind into FY24, Citi asserts, while FY25 earnings should be supported by several factors. These include a new revenue collection system in the US, acquisitions becoming supportive of margins, benefits from digitisation and growth from radiology.

Citi retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $38.00 from $40.50.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $32.03 Difference: $5.97
If SHL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.20, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SHL as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Sonic Healthcare's revenue was in line with Macquarie's forecast, but earnings were -4% below due to higher than expected operating expenses. Sonic has outlined several initiatives to support organic growth from FY24, with balance sheet capacity for further acquisitions.

FY24 guidance is below expectations. Compositionally, the broker has increased organic revenue growth assumptions, but with higher cost growth and lower earnings margins, and reduced covid testing contributions.

Target falls to $32.00 from $33.50 but on limited downside, Macquarie upgrades to Neutral from Underperform.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $32.03 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.20, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Overweight (1) -

Sonic Healthcare's FY23 release revealed margin pressure and that's the key disappointment from an otherwise in line performance, highlights Morgan Stanley.

Post covid labour and infrastructure costs are still creating headwinds for the company. FY24 guidance seems fine when compared with the broker's forecast, but market consensus had expected better.

Following recent acquisitions, the company is equally facing higher interest costs. Overweight. Target unchanged at $37.75. Industry view In-Line.

Target price is $37.75 Current Price is $32.03 Difference: $5.72
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.20, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHL as Hold (3) -

On second take, Ord Minnett observes Sonic Healthcare's FY23 revenue was largely in line but earnings (EBITDA) was -8% lower than the broker forecast due to a contraction in June half pathology earnings (EBITDA) margins.

Coronavirus testing revenue fell -80% (albeit in line), and other base revenue rose 7% and was accelerating into FY24. The final dividend was a big miss at 62c a share, taking the full-year dividend to $1.04, representing a 72% payout ratio.

The broker considers the company to be well positioned to service the widely telegraphed underdiagnosis and routine healthcare service backlogs.

Ord Minnett appreciates the company's balance sheet and expects leverage to remain low for the next 10 years, positioning it well for acquisitions.

Hold rating and $34 target price retained.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $32.03 Difference: $1.97
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.20, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SHL as Upgrade to Buy from Sell (1) -

UBS has become more positive on Sonic Healthcare, upgrading to Buy from Sell. A miss to consensus estimates at the FY23 result meant the shares fell -6% and the broker believes this now captures previous near-term earnings concerns and the stock is now below prior valuation.

The reason UBS is turning more positive is because analysis implies the shares do not reflect two emerging sources of Upside.

The first is a better revenue collection system in the US from which extra revenue will fall directly to the bottom Lline. The second is the move to digital viewing of samples which will provide efficiencies. Target is raised to $36.50 from $34.00.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $32.03 Difference: $4.47
If SHL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.20, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

With softer September quarter production so far in WA gas and GLNG, Macquarie drops its forecast just below the bottom end of production guidance, and assumes higher operating costs.

Ahead of Santos' result next week, the broker has lowered earnings forecasts and cut its target to $9.45 from $9.70. Santos remains the broker's preferred large cap energy exposure nonetheless as the share price implies just a US$56/bbl oil price into perpetuity.

Outperform retained.

Target price is $9.45 Current Price is $7.84 Difference: $1.61
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.36, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Neutral (3) -

Super Retail's FY23 net profit was slightly below Citi's estimates. Sales for the second half were -6% below forecasts although the broker notes momentum in the trading update looks solid.

The benefits of rolling out stores in FY24 is likely to be offset by a tougher trading environment. Over the longer term, Citi expects Rebel should be boosted by category tailwinds, such as a lift in female sports participation, and the further roll-out of the rCX format.

The stock has outperformed the market by 25% this year and is trading close to 52-week highs, the broker observes. Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $13.50 from $12.00.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $13.72 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.34, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUL as Neutral (3) -

Super Retail reported FY23 earnings 3% ahead of Macquarie, with a 60bp beat to margins offsetting a -2% miss at the sales line.

A lower cost of doing busines to sales ratio reflects recent cost initiatives and operating leverage, the broker notes. This has offset wages, electricity and rent inflation. Corporate overheads were also down.

The balance sheet remains zero debt and net cash, helped by an unwind of elevated inventories. This allowed for a long-awaited special dividend, despite macro uncertainty ahead.

Macquarie expects earnings to decline some -20% in FY24 with inflationary pressures to hit margins. Neutral retained, target rises to $12.76 from $12.50.

Target price is $12.76 Current Price is $13.72 Difference: minus $0.96 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.34, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUL as Add (1) -

The board at Super Retail have declared a 25cps special dividend, and Morgans believes it will declare another one this time next year.

The company reported better-than-expected FY23 margins resulting in a 9% profit beat compared to the broker's forecast. There was resilient demand for leisure products and successful growth in loyalty programs, observes Morgans.

The broker's target rises to $15 from $14.20 after assuming more resilient sales and higher margins, aided by the relaunched Rebel loyalty program.

While the gross margin fell by -60 bps to 46.2% in FY23, the analyst points out this was still 100bps above pre-covid levels.

The Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.72 Difference: $1.28
If SUL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.34, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUL as Sell (5) -

FY23 results from Super Retail were ahead of UBS estimates. On further analysis the broker notes revenue trends are mixed as cost-of-living pressures and higher interest rates weigh on consumer activity.

This is particularly evident in Rebel, BCF and Macpac, while Super Cheap Auto appears more resilient. Gross margins are also mixed but are expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels.

UBS reduces FY24 and FY25 estimates for EPS by -6% and -7%, respectively, because of lower sales and higher costs. Sell rating retained because of a challenging environment and lack of valuation support. Target is raised to $10.95 from $10.00.

Target price is $10.95 Current Price is $13.72 Difference: minus $2.77 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.34, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SVW as Outperform (1) -

Seven Group's earnings beat Macquarie by 5%, with all segments beating forecasts except Media. WesTrac posted record years in both WA & NSW, and the outlook is strong.

Coates is capitalising on its strong market position, the broker notes, with further growth to be driven by an $80m fleet expansion in FY24, rollout of a hub & spoke model, and further growth in Solutions.

The balance sheet creates capital management and M&A optionality, with leverage now below target amidst ongoing strong cash generation. Outperform retained, target rises to $32.65 from $30.00.

Target price is $32.65 Current Price is $26.99 Difference: $5.66
If SVW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.55, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SVW as Hold (3) -

Seven Group's FY23 result outpaced Ord Minnett's forecasts by 3%, with strong net operating cash flow stealing the show - up 50% to $1.23bn, well ahead of the broker's forecast of $1bn. Cash conversion returned to 93% of earnings (EBITDA).

The dividend disappointed Ord Minnett due to a lower payout ratio. FY24 guidance appears to have met the broker's forecasts. FY24 EPS forecasts edge up 2%.

Hold rating retained. Target price rises 6% to $27.50 from $26.00.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $26.99 Difference: $0.51
If SVW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.55, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24: