Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates AD8 as Overweight (1) -

Subdued sentiment on Audinate Group is an opportunity to buy a clear market leader with structural growth duration and optionality
Morgan Stanley suggests.

Risk-reward is compelling after a -34% correction from mid-March peak, especially with a fundamental catalyst path that can mitigate cycle concerns.

Audinate is a clear leader in a market with vertical network effects and long growth duration, the broker notes, extending this leadership where recent adoption momentum sets the scene for growth acceleration.

Overweight and $22 target retained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $15.31 Difference: $6.69
If AD8 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.72, suggesting upside of 30.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

Ampol's first half earnings were below Macquarie's forecast. It has been another tough year for Lytton, due to electrical issues, steam
outage, catalyst shortages, and now a 45-day reformer turnaround in the third quarter.

Australian wholesale fuels volumes were flat year on year. The broker comments margins appear solid with Fuels & Infrastructure Australia earnings in line while International was down, with trading clearly subdued in the second quarter.

Convenience Retail was robust, the broker suggests, ading Ampol is navigating the soft consumer well. Macquarie still sees special dividend potential at year-end, but now 50cps (was 60cps).

Target falls to $36.50 from $37.00, Outperform retained.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $32.50 Difference: $4
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.25, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley anticipates a "skittish" reaction to Ampol's June quarter update, with Lytton Refiner Margin down -25% from last quarter and first half earnings -11% below the broker.

First half total sales volumes were -6% down year on year, primarily on lower international sales, but Convenience (-5%) and Z Energy (-4%) sales were also down and modestly below Morgan Stanley's estimates.

Ampol previously targeted reaching final investment decision on its Ultra Low Sulfur Fuel Project in the first quarter but provided no update. Equal-weight and $36 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $32.50 Difference: $3.5
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.25, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Hold (3) -

As part of the 2Q results release, Ampol's 1H earnings (EBIT) guidance of between $500-510m, on a replacement cost operating profit (RCOP) basis, fell -13% short of forecasts by Ord Minnett and consensus.

The broker awaits formal 1H results and the second-half outlook in August before becoming more constructive on the stock.

Hold. Target falls by -$1.00 to $35.50.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $32.50 Difference: $3
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.25, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Neutral (3) -

UBS lowers its FY24 EPS forecast for Ampol by -18% reflecting weaker 2Q trading plus a lower 2H production forecast at the Lytton Refinery.

The 2Q Lytton Refining margin of $8.81/bbl was in line with the broker's forecast but fell short of the consensus estimate for $10.80/bbl.  Unaudited 1H guidance for replacement cost operating profit (RCOP) EBITDA of $735-745m missed the consensus forecast by -10%.

Neutral. The target price falls to $33 from $34.25.

The convenience retail division held up well over the quarter in the broker's opinion, in the face of cost-of-living pressures.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $32.50 Difference: $0.5
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.25, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ARU as Speculative Hold (3) -

Arafura Rare Earths has secured total debt support of US$1,055m comprising conditional support for up to US$775m in senior debt, a further US$80 of cost overrun facilities, and US$200m in standby liquidity, explains Bell Potter.

The analysts point out management's focus is now on securing US$793m in equity financing to finance development of the Nolans project

The Speculative Hold rating is retained, and the broker's target is reduced to 17c from 19c due to a $20m placement at 16cps and management's revised project economics for Nolans.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.005
If ARU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BKT as Buy (1) -

Black Rock Mining's June quarter featured two offtake agreements for large flake graphite, Shaw and Partners notes. Capex estimates for Mahenge Module 1 rose. Ultimate funding for the project to reach production will require both debt and equity.

There is also a partner process that is ongoing.

The broker maintains a Buy recommendation with a reduced price target of 30c from 46c previously, due to capex increases and continued weak graphite fines operating conditions.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.237
If BKT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 376% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Honeymoon is doing better-than-anticipated by Bell Potter and Boss Energy management is in a comfortable position to beat guidance and consensus for FY25 production.

In the 4Q, the company produced 57,364lbs of U3O8 through to the drying and packaging circuit, with 28,844lbs drummed from its Honeymoon uranium project, explain the analysts.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target falls to $5.75 from $5.90 after the broker incorporates the 4Q results into forecasts.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $3.60 Difference: $2.15
If BOE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting upside of 37.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates C79 as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Fourth quarter revenue for Chrysos was broadly in line with Bell Potter's forecast, and FY24 revenue of $45.4m was in line with updated guidance, but FY25 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) guidance materially missed expectations.

The broker lowers its Additional Assay Charge (AAC) estimates by -42% in FY25 and -20% in FY26 to account for a slower recovery in exploration market activity.

Overall, Bell Potter's lower earnings forecasts reflect lower unit deployments and revenue-per-unit, and higher unit costs.

Additional financial model changes by the analysts result in a target of $5.70, down from $7.60, and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $0.71
If C79 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.30, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates C79 as Accumulate (2) -

While the 4Q for Chrysos broadly matched Ord Minnett's expectations, FY25 guidance was materially weaker-than-expected by the broker and consensus.

FY25 guidance for revenues and EBITDA of $60-70m and $9-19m, respectively, missed the consensus forecasts for $72m and $22m.

Accumulate. The target falls to $5.99 from $7.55. The broker remains positive in the longer-term given the company's genuinely disruptive product and the large total addressable market (TAM) opportunity.

Target price is $5.99 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $1
If C79 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.30, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates C79 as Buy (1) -

Chrysos' June Q deployments and FY24 revenue were in line with revised targets and encouragingly, Shaw and Partners suggests, contract breadth is improved.

However, the mid-point of FY25 revenue guidance was -9% lower than the broker had forecast, implying its FY25 deployment targets looked a little ambitious.

Shaw remains of the view this ‘air pocket’ is temporary and not reflective of the underlying demand for Chrysos' technology. Barrick
moving quickly and lab customers moving units closer to miners validates the thesis that miners want better data on site, Shaw argues.

Target falls to $7.20 from $7.50, Buy retained. Chrysos remains a top pick for the broker.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $2.21
If C79 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.30, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COG as Buy (1) -

Underlying growth and profitability for novated leases resulted in a "solid" 4Q trading update by COG Financial Services, Bell Potter comments.

For the Broking and Aggregation segment, unaudited FY24 segment profit (NPATA) of $11.1m compared to $13.2m in FY23, while Novated delivered $8.5m of profit, up from $4.0m. Asset Management's profit was $6.9m, down from $10.1m in FY23.

The broker is expecting circa 17% organic volume growth for Novated, driven by good leasing demand from private employees and record car sales.

The Buy rating is retained, and the target price increases to $1.75 from $1.70. 

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.665
If COG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COG as Buy (1) -

COG Financial Services reported unaudited net profit of $24.1m for FY24, a rise of 2% on the prior year, despite aggressive investment to expand the novated leasing network, explains Ord Minnett.

June quarter NPATA in the Finance, Broking & Aggregation segment declined by -29% on the previous corresponding period, partly due to previously flagged margin compression and opex, explain the analysts.

Management's investments in cyber safety, systems and compliance, in line with planned expansion across all three of these segments, weighs on the broker's FY25 profit outlook, and the target falls to $1.61 from $1.76. Buy.

Target price is $1.61 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.525
If COG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COH as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie assumes industry cochlear implant (CI) unit sales growth of 9% pa to 2033. For Cochlear, the broker assumes
market share increases from 60% in 2023 to 70% by 2033, providing CI units sales growth of 11% pa.

This assumption of market-share gains underpins a target increase to $300 from $255.

Yet, Macquarie estimates the current share price as implying market-share gains and/or operating leverage well ahead of its forecasts.

Underperform retained.

Target price is $300.00 Current Price is $335.58 Difference: minus $35.58 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $278.35, suggesting downside of -18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -

Coles Group will be organising an investor day on November 14. Citi analysts believe the focus will be on the balance sheet as that looks under-geared and thus opens up the possibility of more capital management.

On Citi's calculations, there should be room for up to $1.3bn over the next two years. Estimates have been slightly reduced on lower earnings projected for Liquor and Property.

Buy. Target $19. Coles Group remains the broker's Top Pick in the sector, with the analyst expecting reductions in theft to drive gross
margin expansion in 2H24.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $17.75 Difference: $1.25
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.33, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Buy (1) -

According to UBS' proprietary data, food inflation for Supermarkets fell slightly in the June quarter though appeared to be stabilising in May and June.

The broker points out high food inflation has driven a shift to lower-priced private label offerings at both Coles Group and Woolworths Group, which dilutes gross profits.

The target for Coles Group rises to $19.50 from $18.25. Buy.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $17.75 Difference: $1.75
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.33, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Coronado Global Resources' June Q run-of-mine beat consensus by 16%, Macquarie notes. Production was in line, sales missed by -6% and costs tracked lower on pre-strip demobilisation.

FY24 guidance is reaffirmed for coal production, unit cost and capex. Mammoth approvals on track.

With a constructive met coal outlook and Coronado's improved productivity, cost position, and product quality, the broker sees continued deleveraging capital return potential. Coronado is Macquarie's coal preference.

Target rises to $2.10 from $2.00, Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.785
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 34.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CRN as Speculative Buy (1) -

Coronado Global Resources' June Q crystallised a long-awaited operational turnaround, as Morgans had flagged, but the quantum was materially better than forecast. Saleable production of 4.2Mt was 5% ahead.

Coal prices were in line but the group price realisation of 80% was significantly ahead. Mining costs fell -28%, significantly better than forecast. Overall, revenue was a stronger beat than costs.

Morgans sees Coronado as a volume-leveraged proxy for compelling coal price fundamentals into the medium term. The stock looks too cheap and the broker thinks a re-rating from current levels should interest risk-tolerant investors.

Target rises to $1.85 from $1.80, Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.535
If CRN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 34.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CRN as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Following 2Q results, Ord Minnett raises its target for Coronado Global Resources to $1.60 from $1.50 and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold following a -25% share price decline this year.

Production for the quarter was in line, but costs were well below the broker's forecast on larger-than-anticipated recent cost efficiencies at Curragh due to fleet removals and higher dragline usage.

Management's 2024 guidance for 16.4-17.2mt at a cost of US$95-99/t is unchanged.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.285
If CRN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 34.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CRN as Buy (1) -

While realised prices for Coronado Global Resources were soft in Q2, 2024 guidance was maintained, and a reset at the Curragh operations builds UBS confidence in free cash flow conversion (FCF).

As stripping fleets demobilised and dragline productivity improved, run-of-mine (ROM) and saleable production at Curragh rose by 39% and 23%, respectively, quarter-on-quarter, highlights the analyst.

The Buy rating and $1.95 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.635
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 34.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EVS as Buy (1) -

EnviroSuite's 4Q was slightly below Bell Potter's expectations. A slight miss in project sales versus guidance was mostly driven by some slippage of sales into FY25, explain the analysts.

A larger annual recurring revenue (ARR) miss was mainly due to an unfavourable currency move and higher-than-expected customer churn, notes the broker.

The Buy rating is unchanged, and the target falls to 8c from 10c partly because Bell Potter lowers the multiple applied to EV/Revenue and raises the assumed weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.029
If EVS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FLT as Outperform (1) -

Flight Centre Travel's FY24 total transaction value of $23.7bn was below Macquarie's expectations due to airfare deflation. The broker still expects TTV to grow mid-single digits in FY25/26.

This will come from market share gains, tempering airfare deflation as capacity growth slows and airfare deflation stimulating volumes.
Macquarie expects corporate TTV growth to outpace leisure.

Target falls to $25.26 from $26.80, Outperform retained.

Target price is $25.26 Current Price is $21.30 Difference: $3.96
If FLT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.92, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Despite a negative share price reaction to a trading update by Flight Centre Travel indicating FY24 total transaction value (TTV) will likely remain flat on FY19, Ord Minnett prefers to highlight clear positive changes underway.

The broker expects material improvements in efficiencies and lower costs from FY25 onwards based on a major transformation of systems and processes within the Corporate Division, assisted by AI.

Buy. Target rises to $25.91 from $25.39.

Target price is $25.91 Current Price is $21.30 Difference: $4.61
If FLT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.92, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FMG as Sell (5) -

Following weaker-than-expected FY25 guidance by Fortescue, and higher capex for FY25, combined with downside risks Bell Potter sees for the iron ore price, the Sell rating is maintained, and the target reduced to $17.41 from $20.63.

These changes are made, despite a FY24 result that set a new quarterly shipment record and beat the broker's expectations. Iron Bridge shipping numbers again disappointed against management guidance.

While the dividend payout lends share price support, the analysts expect this will fall away with a lower iron ore price.

Target price is $17.41 Current Price is $20.14 Difference: minus $2.73 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.22, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

Fortescue Metals' June Q result beat Macquarie on sales and opex but missed on production and capex. FY25 sales guidance is a miss, while capex is significantly higher due to fleet replacement, decarbonisation and energy spend.

While management spoke of a lean focus and -700 jobs were cut across the business, under the broker's price forecasts, Fortescue's minimum 50% payout ratio comes under pressure.

To sustain the dividend policy, Macquarie believes Fortescue may need to increase gearing.

Target falls to $14.25 from $14.50, Underperform retained.

Target price is $14.25 Current Price is $20.14 Difference: minus $5.89 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.22, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Fortescue's June Q production and price missed Morgan Stanley. Costs were better on a lower-than-guided strip ratio. FY25 guidance is higher than consensus on costs and capex. Capex is higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast but costs are lower.

Total Shipments guidance is lower than the broker and Iron Bridge production is a miss.

Underweight and $18.70 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $20.14 Difference: minus $1.44 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.22, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Hold (3) -

Significant selling pressure is building in Fortescue and Morgans warns fundamentals of both its iron ore and hydrogen/energy businesses are set to take a step in the wrong direction in FY25.

An exceptional June Q saw FY24 shipments finish just below the bottom end of guidance, while also helping on costs. FY25 guidance for iron ore shipments and costs both disappointed versus consensus.

Spend in Fortescue’s energy division and decarbonisation efforts is expected to be substantial in FY25.

Target falls to $23.00 from $24.70, Hold retained.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $20.14 Difference: $2.86
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.22, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Hold (3) -

While Fortescue had a record-breaking quarter of shipments, price realisation was weaker-than-expected by Ord Minnett, and FY25 guidance came up short of consensus estimates.

Moreover, C1 costs incurred and forecast capital expenditure were respectively -4% and -13% worse than consensus was expecting, explains the broker.

The analyst attributes the greater capital expenditure to the upcoming spend on decarbonising operations and fleet replacement.

Hold rating. Target falls to $20 from $21.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $20.14 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.22, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Sell (5) -

Following in-line 4Q results, but with indication of rising costs and capex in FY25, UBS incorporates higher costs and lower price realisations into forecasts, resulting in -6%-11% EPS downgrades over FY24-26.

Record 4Q shipments for hematite beat the broker's forecast, while Iron Bridge shipments missed.

Management guided to a -5% worsening in FY25 hematite unit costs due to inflation and increasing strip ratios.

FY24 results are due on August 28. Sell rating. The target falls to $17.70 from $18.90.

Target price is $17.70 Current Price is $20.14 Difference: minus $2.44 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.22, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates INA as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights strong structural demand for land lease communities and potential value realisation catalysts for Ingenia Communities via M&A.

With the group set to report FY24 results on August 20, the broker forecasts a record 439 settlements in FY24 (guidance around 442)
and continues to believe management's FY24-26 settlement guidance remains achievable.

Buy. Target increased to $5.50 from $5.22 after the broker assumes higher long-term Development margins.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: $0.48
If INA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates IPG as Buy (1) -

Annual global investment in energy transition technologies rose to a new all-time high in 2023 and a 17% year-on-year gain, Shaw and Partners  reports.

Electrified Transport, which tracks spending on EVs and charging infrastructure, has overtaken renewable energy to become the largest sector for spending.

Electrified Transport saw the largest absolute gain of any sector, reflecting a continued acceleration in global EV adoption. Clean Industry investment grew 7%.

The quantum of expenditure forecast for Energy Transition Investment should help drive IPD Group’s earnings over time, the broker suggests, given the company sells products that support power distribution and energy management.

Buy and $5.50 target retained.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.76 Difference: $0.74
If IPG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KAR as Buy (1) -

Upon second consideration, Citi analysts have reduced their 2024 EPS forecast by -14%. Operational issues at Bauna plus higher D&A forecast are responsible.

Yesterday, the broker responded as follows:

In an initial response to today's Q2 market update, Citi analysts comment Karoon Energy's production for the quarter proved slightly better than expected, though market consensus had higher expectations.

Foreshadowed capital return seems to please the analysts, with Citi commenting a 20%-40% payout ratio on underlying NPAT and an additional US$25m buyback should see total distributions of at least US$50m for the first half.

There are risks, however, with the broker also highlighting SPS-88 well intervention looks increasingly likely to slip to 2025, implying 2024 production might end up at the bottom end of the guidance range.

Also, guidance for D&A is slightly ahead of consensus. This can possibly drag down earnings expectations, suggests the broker.

Buy. Target has now been reduced to $2.35 from $2.75. FY25 forecasts have been lowered too (except DPS estimates which have been upgraded significantly).

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.61
If KAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 29.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Karoon Energy's June Q production was in line but sales and revenues were well above Macquarie on timing of Bauna shipments and solid pricing.

A new chapter has begun for Karoon, the broker suggests, with the capital management framework now in place. Macquarie expects this, along with improving production in the second half, should help the share price to recover further.

Target falls to $2.40 from $2.45 on a reduced Who Dat valuation. Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.66
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 29.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Equal-weight (3) -

Karoon Energy's preliminary June Q results showed production up 27% year on year and above Morgan Stanley, but below consensus owing to prolonged Bauna outages and maintenance programs.

Strikes at Brazil’s environmental regulator are holding up approvals for Karoon's repair of the production well at Baúna. Management sees its target for 3Q24 as likely to slip, and production coming in at the bottom end of guidance if the repair is deferred to 2025.

Morgan Stanley anticipates a welcome reaction to the June quarter results and capital allocation framework, including a US$25m buy-back from the first half.

Equal-weight and $2.00 target retained. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.26
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 29.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MDR as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter concludes from 4Q results by MedAdvisor that US customers are steadily adopting the newer THRiV offering, an omni-channel platform that results in higher gross margins and return on investment (ROI).

THRiV made up around 48% of Q4 US revenue compared to circa 3% in the previous corresponding period, point out the analysts.

Revenue growth was "strong" in the US and the A&NZ region, explains the broker, while gross margins also improved. The FY24 gross margin achieved was circa 60.8% (60.6% in FY23), after a 2H surge to 66.1% compared to 57.5% in H1.

The target rises to 64c from 49c after Bell Potter adjusts for the quarterly update and raises the assumed EV/Revenue multiple. Buy.

Target price is $0.64 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.1
If MDR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MND as Buy (1) -

Monadelphous Group has announced a work package agreement with Woodside Energy ((WDS)) to provide mechanical, electrical, instrumentation and commissioning works for modification of Pluto LNG Train 1 facility and its associated infrastructure.

Citi analysts see this deal as a positive given not many E&C project award announcements generally, plus such agreements further diversify revenues for the services contractor.

The broker grabs the opportunity to voice its opinion that market concerns about iron ore are "overdone".

The Woodside agreement is valued at $200m and the analysts think expected completion could be some 18 months away. Buy. Target $16.20.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $12.56 Difference: $3.64
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.82, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts have long been questioning the market's confidence in Macquarie Group's outlook. For the second year in a row, the analysts highlight, management's AGM update has surprised to the downside.

A Q1 performance merely in line with the year prior effectively translates into a significant profit downgrade, the analysts state. Cash earnings are most likely to end up between $700m-$750m with market consensus positioned for $950m.

Management at Macquarie sees this merely as a timing issue, with Citi highlighting this makes a strong H2 essential to meet market expectations.

The stock is rated a Sell, and the target price is unchanged at $176.

Target price is $176.00 Current Price is $201.61 Difference: minus $25.61 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $200.42, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Macquarie Group's first quarter performance was broadly in line with 1Q23. Macquarie is maintaining full year FY25 outlook incorporating a capital market rebound, but has added that investment income and gains on sales will occur predominantly in the second half.

This may place near-term pressure on the stock, Morgan Stanley suggests, as consensus needs to reconsider the timing of FY25 earnings.

In the broker's view, Macquarie Group is at the start of a multi-year upgrade cycle as recently announced deals complete later in FY25. Overweight and $234 target retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $234.00 Current Price is $201.61 Difference: $32.39
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.42, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MQG as Hold (3) -

Macquarie Group has given a first quarter update as part of its AGM, noting the Group Operating Contribution was broadly flat year on year.

First quarter commentary is a bit weak versus FY25 consensus for 17% growth, albeit Morgans acknowledges Macquarie is now flagging that asset realisations will be more skewed to the second half.

Macquarie Group is a quality franchise, but the broker thinks the recent strength in its share price is arguably unjustified, and sees the stock as trading at fair value on 19x FY25 forecast earnings.

Target rises to $192.10 from $189.40, Hold retained.
 

Target price is $192.10 Current Price is $201.61 Difference: minus $9.51 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $200.42, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

Following 1Q results, Ord Minnett maintains its FY25 NPAT forecast for Macquarie Group. Management left FY25 guidance unchanged.

Rising volumes and reductions in expenses and credit charges in the Banking and Financial Services segment were offset by a narrower net interest margin (NIM), explains the analyst.

Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) reported a decrease in performance fees received, while the performance of the Commodities & Global Markets (CGM) division was reasonable, suggests the broker, given seasonal weakness.

Under the broker's in-house research arrangements (previous use of Morningstar) the rating is Accumulate with a $200 target.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $201.61 Difference: minus $1.61 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $200.42, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Following a further review of yesterday's 1Q results for Macquarie Group, UBS retains its Neutral rating and $200 target.

Summary of the broker's response yesterday:

Macquarie Group released an Q1 market update ahead of its AGM tday and UBS analysts, in an initial response, believe today's update reads worse than expected.

The Q1 run rate, explains the broker, is well below current consensus projections. With company management stating performance is in line with expectations, UBS points out this implies a strong H2 will be required.

Nevertheless, UBS's commentary remains sceptical, also arguing divisional commentary, with exception of CGM, equally reads worse than anticipated.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $201.61 Difference: minus $1.61 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $200.42, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEM as Buy (1) -

UBS believes Newmont Corp is on track for management's 2024 guidance for production, costs and capital spend, following the June quarterly operational report.

Total attributable production beat the broker's forecast by 2% and UBS is anticipating a sequential increase in production in the second half of the year.

Unchanged Buy rating and $75 target.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $72.30 Difference: $2.7
If NEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates NOL as Buy (1) -

NobleOak Life is positively exposed to Australian interest rates staying higher for longer, notes Shaw and Partners, for two reasons.

Higher interest rates mean the present value of future net claims is lower, increasing profit, though there is also an unwinding of the discount included in the accounts.

Secondly and probably the most important, the broker suggests, because of the positive impact on NobleOak's Average Return on Invested Assets given NobleOak primarily invests in cash and short-term fixed interest securities.

Buy and $2.85 target retained.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $1.445
If NOL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 103% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Buy (1) -

FY25 guidance disappointed, but Citi retains a firm Buy rating with $15.90 target for Northern Star Resources. The broker highlights it only needed to revise FY25 forecasts by -4%.

The broker emphasises its Buy-thesis is built on leverage to the gold price and production growth.

One negative is management's refusal to provide three-year out guidance on capex & opex, but Citi sees sufficient positives elsewhere, like management's agility to respond to a higher gold price.

While the in-house projection is the Fed will cut rates seven times from September onwards, the broker's view on the outlook for gold prices remains bullish.

Target price is $15.90 Current Price is $14.29 Difference: $1.61
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.46, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star Resources' June Q was solid, Macquarie suggests, featuring good production and in-line sales and costs, with all key metrics meeting FY24 group guidance.

FY25 guidance was nevertheless softer than the broker's expectations, with production -4-5% lower and costs 6-7% higher.

Northern Star's growth plan to 2moz by FY26 remains on track driven by grades at KCGM. The KCGM mill expansion is also tracking to
plan.

Target falls to $17 from $18, Outperform retained.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $14.29 Difference: $2.71
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.46, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

Northern Star Resources' June Q came in 5% better on production, with Pogo driving the result on significantly higher grades. In all, FY25 guidance is weaker on production and higher on costs and capex than Morgan Stanley expected.

On balance, the broker expects a negative revision to FY25 estimates.

Target falls to $14.10 from $14.90, Equal-weight retained. The broker has a preference for Evolution Minging ((EVN)). Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $14.29 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.46, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -

Gold production in Q4 for Northern Star Resources exceeded the UBS forecast by 15%. All hubs beat the broker's estimates with a special mention by the analyst to the 34% beat at the Pogo operations.

Given higher volume, costs (AISC) were also 5% better than the analyst's estimate for Q4.

FY25 guidance was broadly in line with the broker's expectations.

The Buy rating and $16 target are unchanged.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $14.29 Difference: $1.71
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.46, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PEN as Buy (1) -

Peninsula Energy's June quarter report showed construction activities at the Lance Uranium Project in Wyoming have the project on track for a production restart in late 2024, and construction is on budget, Shaw and Partners notes.

Initial production is planned from a new production well-field which is on track for pre-conditioning operations in the third quarter.

Peninsula has existing contracts with a range of utility counterparties and has confirmed that all customers have agreed to delivery schedules to align with the current forecast production.

Buy and 26c target retained.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.16
If PEN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 160% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PLS as Hold (3) -

Production and sales for Pilbara Minerals in Q4 were a strong beat against Bell Potter's forecasts, on higher lithium recoveries
and lower unit costs, but realised pricing was weak.

The analysts suggest completion of offtake price reviews with two major customers should support improved realisations going forward.

FY25 guidance for spodumene concentrate production of between 800-840kt is 21% higher than FY24 at the midpoint, notes the broker.

The Hold rating is maintained, and the target slips to $3.30 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.43
If PLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Regis Resources' June quarter update contained a nasty surprise through much higher than anticipated costs guidance of $2,440-2,740/oz for FY25.

Citi analysts comment they were already positioned above consensus on costs, but are yet again forced to adjust forecasts.

Citi has a bullish view on the outlook for gold prices, but sees its thesis challenged for Regis Resources through mine life and production volumes.

Neutral. Target price drops to $1.80 from $1.90. Forecasts have been revised upwards.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.07
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Fourth quarter production and costs (AISC), along with FY24 guidance had been pre-released by Regis Resources. UBS trims around -35koz from its forecasts over the next three years and raises costs as the open-pit performance at Tropicana impacts.

FY25 guidance for 350-380koz at a cost (AISC) of between $2,440-2,740/oz was broadly in line with the broker's forecasts but below consensus.

Management's prior 500kozpa target is but a distant memory, laments the analyst, as Tropicana recovers from wet weather, Duketon is considered ex-growth, and uncertainty continues around McPhillamys.

The Neutral rating remains, and the target falls by -5% to $1.75.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.02
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEK as Neutral (3) -

Seek has announced a -$120m or -21% impairment on the carrying value of its 23.5% stake in Zhaopin due largely to the slow Chinese economy and competition.

Seek also announced its net proceeds outstanding from the final tranche from its sell-down several years ago is now $75m, down from a prior $96m.

Macquarie has cut earnings forecasts in FY24-26 by -3-5% reflecting softer Zhaopin conditions as per the announcement and assumption for continued weakness into FY25-FY26.

Given the broker's valuation for Zhaopin was already below the written-down carrying value, there is no change to the $23 target. Neutral retained.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $20.20 Difference: $2.8
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.28, suggesting upside of 32.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SEK as Add (1) -

Seek has released an update to its investment in Zhaopin (23.5%) which included an impairment of -$141m. As a result of the softer revenue environment, Seek’s share of equity accounted profit from this investment will be -$5m lower in FY24 versus FY23, Morgans highlights.

Given softer than expected job ad volumes to start the first quarter, the broker also lowers its volume growth assumptions to -3% for FY25.

Target falls to $25.80 from $26.70, Add retained.

Target price is $25.80 Current Price is $20.20 Difference: $5.6
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.28, suggesting upside of 32.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts note how the June quarter provided plenty of positives for Sandfire Resources, with FY25 guidance providing a positive catalyst on top.

Guidance for copper output in FY25 is 3% ahead of the broker's projection, though guidance for zinc disappointed plus market consensus had higher expectations for copper too, the broker explains.

Citi awaits more clarity on costs guidance and believes guidance provided looks conservative. The in-house view is that copper will be consolidating for a while, before embarking on the next leg upwards.

Neutral. Target loses -10c to $8.80.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $8.16 Difference: $0.64
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.34, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Fourth quarter results for Sandfire Resources have de-risked the FY25 outlook in Ord Minnett's view. The broker upgrades its rating to Accumulate from Hold following a -20% share price fall since May.

Copper production in Q4 at Motheo outperformed Ord Minnett's forecast and offset a softer-than-expected Matsa outcome.

The analysts' target rises to $9.65 from $9.45 on an improved outlook.

Ord Minnett highlights the opportunity for investors to gain exposure to a large and liquid copper exposure with strong fundamentals.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.16 Difference: $1.14
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.34, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

A stronger Motheo performance again offset a marginally weaker Matsa outcome for Sandfire Resources in the 4Q, notes UBS. Costs (C1) at both mines highlighted ongoing cost control and improved by-product credits.

As FY25 guidance at Matsa is a little softer-than-expected, the broker reduces its FY25 EPS forecast by -9%. It's felt management's FY25 guidance of 53kt for copper may prove to be conservative as Motheo continues to beat expectations

The target price falls to $9.40 from $10, and the Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $8.16 Difference: $1.24
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.34, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SMP as Buy (1) -

With SmartPay New Zealand's acquisition roll-out fast approaching, SmartPay is imminently entering a transformational period that Shaw and Partners believes the market is under-appreciating.

The broker's channel checks indicate a constructive payments operating environment, the recovering NZ economy is forecast to hit an inflection point in 2024, and SmartPay is the cheapest it has been in over two years on enterprise value to sales.

Buy and $2.20 target retained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $1.05
If SMP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates STX as Speculative Buy (1) -

Strike Energy's 4Q production and sales of 2.4PJ just missed Bell Potter's 2.5PJ forecast, while sales revenue of $19.9m came in under the broker's $21.2m estimate.

The broker points out Walyering production is being hampered by lack of infrastructure access, which should be alleviated by utilising the Dampier to Bunbury Natural Gas Pipeline from late-2024.

Bell Potter anticipates material upcoming value-accretive news flow. The Speculative Buy rating is retained, and the target price rises to 32c from 31c.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.12
If STX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 35.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYR as Outperform (1) -

Syrah Resources reported 24.0kt of graphite production for the June Q, which was 70% above Macquarie's forecasts and 118%
higher quarter on quarter. The miner plans to maintain this campaign mining mode while waiting for improved market conditions.

Third-party sales were -8% below forecast and -50% lower qoq, reflecting competition from synthetic graphite. Average pricing of US$735/t beat expectations by 11% in the period and rose 21% qoq.

Construction of the Vidalia facility is complete, with the ramp-up now underway. The company indicated a slowdown of the ramp-up pace, with first production expected in early 2025.

Target falls to 80c from 90c. Outperform retained on longer term EV and ex-China growth.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.53
If SYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 196% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.70, suggesting upside of 159.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SYR as Buy (1) -

Syrah Resources' June quarter saw Balama production ahead of Shaw and Partners' estimate although sales were lower as demand has been crimped by the US Government’s decision to grant US OEM’s two additional years to source graphite from outside China.

Most significantly, the broker notes, China export volumes for natural graphite have resumed back to levels last seen prior to December 2023’s export controls.

"Incredibly", the broker says, the introduction of a discretionary licencing process has actually increased the control China has over the global graphite and battery supply chain.

Target falls to 80c from $1.10, Buy retained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.53
If SYR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 196% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.70, suggesting upside of 159.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

According to UBS proprietary data, food inflation for Supermarkets fell slightly in the June quarter though appeared to be stabilising in May and June.

The broker points out high food inflation has driven a shift to lower-priced private label offerings at both Coles Group and Woolworths Group, which dilutes gross profits.

The target for Woolworths Group rises to $34.50 from $32.50. Neutral.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $34.45 Difference: $0.05
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.42, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources