Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AD8 as Neutral (3) -

Audinate Group posted a solid result, Macquarie suggests, even without taking into account pent-up demand. There is remaining backlog in Ultimo, Brooklyn and Viper boards, to be worked through in the second half and FY25.

Audinate Group beat FY24 video endpoint guidance, the broker notes. This reflects strong growth in Dante as Viper rolls off, with traction among name-brand customers.

Similarly, a pipeline of nine proof-of-concepts in Dante Connect and the disclosure of established paying customers shows early delivery in Cloud.

Management commentary of 48:52 first/second half split implies FY24 gross profit above guidance, the broker notes, despite guidance being reiterated. With well-flagged M&A on the horizon and associated execution and reinvestment risks, Macquarie retains Neutral.

Target rises to $17.90 from $15.80.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $19.33 Difference: minus $1.43 (current price is over target).
If AD8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.91, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AD8 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes Audinate Group has delivered another beat with its first half results, reporting revenue of US$30.4m, gross profits of US$2.8m, and earnings of US$10.1m. 

Full year guidance of year-on-year gross profit growth between 26% and 31% was reiterated, implying a US$42m gross profit result at the lower end. 

While Audinate Group raised potential for macro uncertainty in the second half, Morgan Stanley remains constructive on the industry outlook.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $22.00 from $13.30. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $19.33 Difference: $2.67
If AD8 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.91, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AD8 as Buy (1) -

Audinate Group posted an impressive result, featuring revenue and earnings both strongly ahead of UBS. Momentum in both audio & video is strong, with healthy design wins, ecosystem build and strong initial uptake from video customers.

UBS believes guidance appears conservative given first half momentum. FY25 forward multiples look expensive, but Audinate offers a strong five-year compound annual growth rate in excess of 22%, the broker estimates.

Buy retained, target rises to $21.05 from $13.55.

Target price is $21.05 Current Price is $19.33 Difference: $1.72
If AD8 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.91, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes ANZ Bank's 1Q update was devoid of market-moving news. Group revenue was slightly better-than-expected and the provision charge was also less than the broker's forecast, while balance sheet items were largely in line with forecasts.

Given a strong share price rally leading into the "generally benign" quarterly result, the analysts feel the market will assess an in-line outcome.

The Neutral rating and target price of $26.00 are retained.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $28.04 Difference: minus $2.04 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.50, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes ANZ Bank's first quarter revenue was slightly ahead of expectations and broadly in line with first half FY23 quarterly average, largely underpinned by markets income.

A bad debt impairment charge of just -$53m is well below expectations, underpinning earnings upgrades in FY24. While commercial transaction deposit outflows appear to have stabilised, retail transaction deposit outflows continued, the broker notes.

Macquarie continues to expect liability-led margin headwinds in FY24-25 for the sector, with Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) most impacted.

Neutral and $25 target retained.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $28.04 Difference: minus $3.04 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.50, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -

From selective disclosure provided by ANZ Bank on its first quarter operating trends, Morgan Stanley estimates stronger revenue has driven quarterly pre-provision profit 3-4% higher than initially forecast.

The bank reported revenue was in-line with the quarterly average achieved in the first half of the previous year, while market income performed a "little better". Morgan Stanley anticipates a positive market reaction to the news.

The Overweight rating and target price of $27.40 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $27.40 Current Price is $28.04 Difference: minus $0.64 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.50, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Accumulate (2) -

ANZ Bank's 1Q revenue was in line with the 1H quarterly average in 2023, observes Ord Minnett, with growth in lending offsetting net interest margin (NIM) pressure.

Overall, the result was positive, suggests the analyst, in light of elevated price competition for mortgages and deposits.

In the medium-term, the broker anticipates profits will rise as the intensity of competition eases, and the NIM should widen to around 1.75% by FY25, up from the broker's 1.63% forecast for FY24.

Accumulate and $31 target retained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $28.04 Difference: $2.96
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.50, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

ANZ Bank's first quarter came in better than UBS expected, on stronger revenues and lower provisions for bad debts. Markets income was well ahead. Asset quality continues to surprise to the upside, with a -$53m total provision charge run-rating significantly ahead of UBS.

ANZ's share price is outperforming peers by 7% year to date. UBS believes ANZ also has the most to gain, earnings-wise, from a normalisation in provisions to a base case scenario.

Neutral and $25 target retained.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $28.04 Difference: minus $3.04 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.50, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Following 1H results for Aurizon Holdings, Citi only slightly adjusts forecasts to include higher Coal and Network earnings, offset by lower Bulk growth.

Earnings (EBITDA) of $847m were in line with the broker's forecast and around 4% ahead of the consensus estimate.

Transitory factors were evident within the overall positive Coal result, note the analysts, while the performances of Bulk and Containerised freight were considered underwhelming.

The broker suggests investors sit out the high capex/uncertain Bulk years. The Neutral rating is unchanged and the target rises to $4.00 from $3.90.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $0.12
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Aurizon Holdings reported earnings in line with Macquarie, and reiterated FY guidance is also in line. Bulk missed expectation for the third half in a row.

A recovery in below-rail and coal is as expected, but again bulk disappointed, which undermines confidence in Aurizon's outlook, the broker believes.

The dividend lift is a positive, but is still six months away. Macquarie suggests the key for investors is evidence the bulk freight strategy is working. Target falls to $3.85 from $3.88, Neutral retained.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley is anticipating a positive market reaction to Aurizon Holdings' first half result. The company reported 26% year-on-year earnings growth to $847m in the period.

Both the coal and network segments beat the broker's expectations by 11%, which the broker explains as a mix of volume recovery and improved yield.

Full year guidance was retained, with Aurizon Holdings anticipating some moderation in coal revenue yield in the second half.

The Underweight rating and target price of $3.49 are retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.49 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AZJ as Hold (3) -

Following 1H results for Aurizon Holdings, Morgans upgrades its FY24 forecast by around 7%, but the impact is negated by a similar downgrade in FY26, and the target price is barely changed at $3.75, up from $3.74.

Network earnings growth in the 1H beat the broker's forecast largely due to an over-recovery of the company's revenue allowance (actual volumes exceeded the regulatory forecast). Regulations dictate the recovery is refunded to customers after two years, explains the analyst.

Coal was a solid beat, according to the broker, while Bulk disappointed given significant recent capital investment.

The analyst sees clear earnings growth drivers for FY24-26, enabling a recovery in dividends, but the Hold rating is kept on valuation.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AZJ as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett assesses a strong 1H result for Aurizon Holdings due to higher tariffs, and, to a lesser extent, volumes, largely driven by strong recoveries for the rail network and coal haulage businesses.

Earnings (EBITDA) and profit increased by 26% and 40%, respectively, which helps to support the 60%-franked interim dividend of 9.7cps, suggests the broker.

Management maintained FY24 earnings guidance in the expectation of a softer 2H due to wet weather impacts, observes the analyst.

The Accumulate rating and $4.70 target are maintained.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $0.82
If AZJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Aurizon Holdings' underlying earnings were 5% above UBS. The dividend, representing a 75% payout, 60% franked, was 7% above. Coal was a highlight, Network was strong, however mostly due to over-earning, while Bulk and net interest were weaker than expected.

Despite the beat, FY24 guidance was maintained, though with some adjusted assumptions. Aurizon is essentially guiding to a softer second half, the broker notes, given some tempering factors. UBS is comfortable with a forecast at the top end of the guidance range.

The result has not materially changed the broker's view. Aurizon's core businesses are resilient cash generators, however the Bulk and Container growth strategies remain unproven, with return on invested capital lagging expectations to-date.

UBS thinks it is prudent for Aurizon to slow investment until further proof of success. Target rises to $3.80 from $3.65, Neutral retained.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BC8 as Buy (1) -

Black Cat Syndicate, along with funding partners Mingjin and Southeast Mingqing, have agreed to extend the completion date of the $15m secured debt facility and remaining equity placement of $36m to 31 May 2024 from 28 February 2024.

Management also provided an update on refurbishment works that have commenced at the Paulsens Gold operation in WA.

Both announcements fail to impact on forecasts by Shaw and Partners, and the Buy rating and 74c target price are retained.

Target price is $0.74 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.535
If BC8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 261% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter finds Beach Energy's first half to be in line. Despite underlying net profits of $173m, the company delivered a reported net profit result of -$345m, the result of a -$721m non-cash impairment largely related to the carrying value of non-operated Cooper Basin assets.

Retaining full year guidance implies a production lift into the second half and easing capital expenditure. Realised gas prices at Otways should lift, according to the broker, with price review complete and enterprise gas covered under a market-based Gas Sales Agreement.

The Buy rating and target price of $1.90 are retained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.19
If BPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Beach Energy's 1H underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $488m missed the consensus estimate of $532m due to higher third-party purchase costs, as well as greater tariffs and tolls, explains Citi.

Core profit was also a -23% miss against consensus due to the lower-than-expected earnings, a higher D&A charge and higher taxes, note the analysts.

Despite these negatives, the broker points out the business doesn’t seem to be performing too much worse than consensus expected. It's felt the result may not have been as large a miss at the operating level. 

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral rating and the target rises to $1.80 from $1.65 after the analyst incorporates around $85m/year of incremental free cash flow (FCF) from FY26 into forecasts.

The broker expects a refreshed FCF target across the organisation from new management, akin to the program Woodside Energy ((WDS)) implemented in 2014, which the market rewarded.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.09
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Beach Energy's result was disappointing on higher costs, Macquarie suggests, however with the Waitsia/Otway ramp-ups now imminent, the focus is on the outlook.

The new CEO's strategic review will be substantive, the broker believes, given his background and highly relevant experience at Santos. Organisational quality should lift, and early vision from the CEO was positive.

Macquarie suggests Beach Energy is offering sector-leading growth, and is now led by quality management that will instill capital discipline, decisively capture efficiencies and maximise value.

Target rises to $1.95 from $1.55, upgrade to Outperform from Neutral.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.24
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Equal-weight (3) -

In a move Morgan Stanley expects investors will welcome, Beach Energy is set to undertake a strategic review with discipline front of mind.

The company is looking to lower costs, primarily in offshore offsets and by reducing sustaining capital expenditure, and seeking higher spot exposure through increased contract flexibility.

Beach Energy has increased its debt facilities to $920m, and Morgan Stanley points out at 12%, gearing is nearing the top end of the company's target range. It is expected this will reduce rapidly when key growth projects reach completion.

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $1.65 are retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BPT as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses a "softer" 1H result for Beach Energy, though costs were partly driven by temporary factors. Underlying earnings and profit missed consensus forecasts by -8% and -26%, respectively.

With the aim of becoming a low-cost operator, management announced a cost-focused strategic review with a focus on offshore operations. The broker feels Beach can regain significant earnings power if it can deliver Waitsia.

FY24 production and capex guidance was maintained. An unchanged 2cps dividend was declared for the third consecutive half.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target rises to $1.65 from $1.55 on changes to Morgans' valuation methodology.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Accumulate (2) -

Beach Energy's 1H underlying net profit was lower than Ord Minnett expected due to higher-than-anticipated third party gas costs for the maiden Waitsia LNG cargo and higher Cooper Basin joint venture costs.

Sales revenue for the half increased by 13%, with higher average pricing overwhelming an -11% production decline, explains the analyst.

Under new CEO Brett Woods, the broker expects a renewed focus on costs will lead to a margin recovery, and the $2.50 target is kept.  Woods is confident the Waitsia project can be delivered according to plan, with initial production by mid-2024.

FY24 production and capex guidance was maintained. The broker's Accumulate rating is unchanged.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.79
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Neutral (3) -

Following initial thoughts (see below) on CAR Group's 1H results, Citi believes the overall performance is tracking slightly ahead of expectations. Due to a lower effective tax rate, there's also thought to be upside to FY25 consensus expectations.

Neutral and $34.30 target retained.

In an initial response, Citi noted CAR Group reported a first half underlying profit up 34% year on year and 3% ahead of the broker. Revenue was stronger than expected while earnings were in line.

In Australia, Dealer revenue guidance has been upgraded to ‘Good’ from ‘Solid’, Citi notes, Private has been downgraded to ‘Solid’ from ‘Good’ and Media has been upgraded to ‘Strong’ from ‘Good’.

Given share price strength in recent months the broker sees potential for the shares to underperform initially, on the lack of a guidance upgrade.

Target price is $34.30 Current Price is $34.03 Difference: $0.27
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.28, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CAR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

CAR Group's first half profit was a beat due to better tax losses than expected in the US, while the underlying result was in line, Macquarie notes, with higher revenue offset by higher costs.

A guidance downgrade for private listings from "good" growth to "solid" is worth around -3%, the broker estimates. The implied yield outcome is now low teens to high single digits with CAR indicating volumes had moderated in line with market conditions.

CAR is a highly attractive business with a defendable earnings stream, Macquarie notes, but with market earnings expectations reasonably elevated and with no valuation support the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $32.70 from $35.30.

Target price is $32.70 Current Price is $34.03 Difference: minus $1.33 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.28, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CAR as Hold (3) -

In a broadly strong overall result, according to Morgans, CAR Group's 1H adjusted earnings (EBITDA) and profit beat consensus forecasts by just over 1%.

The analyst highlights double-digit proforma revenue and earnings growth across all operating regions.

The earnings margin (52.2%) was around -100bps shy of the consensus forecast as the group continued to reinvest, explains the broker.

The 50%-franked interim dividend of 34.5cps was just above the analysts's forecast for 34cps.

The target rises to $32.20 from $28.10. Hold.

Target price is $32.20 Current Price is $34.03 Difference: minus $1.83 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.28, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CAR as Lighten (4) -

After reviewing 1H results for CAR Group, which were slightly ahead of expectations, Ord Minnett suggests management has again demonstrated undisputed leadership skill.

The broker feels Trader Interactive has moved decidedly into a monetisation phase, and has grown its audience leadership position to three times the closest competitor.

The broker expects Media's 1H growth will be hard to reproduce, given tailwinds in the period from easing supply challenges. Also, it's felt growth in Private for the 1H was driven by one-off market share gains from Gumtree.com.au and Carsguide.com.au.

The target rises by 4% to $26 and the Lighten rating is unchanged due to material overvaluation.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $34.03 Difference: minus $8.03 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.28, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAR as Buy (1) -

In the wake of CAR Group's result, UBS remains positive on the company's ability to grow earnings at a 16% compound annual growth rate over the next three years, driven by yields and volume. The broker raises its  FY24-26 average revenue growth forecast by 6%, and earnings by 3%.

CAR Group is expecting domestic inventories to shift from Private to Dealer, as new car supply and median time-to-sell have normalised back to pre-covid levels. UBS views this positively for Dealer revenues but likely net neutral for earnings.

The stock is trading on 21x two-year forward earnings, one standard deviation above the five-year average, but the broker views this as warranted given a structurally improved growth profile from the international businesses.

Target rises to $38.50 from $32.40, Buy retained.

Target price is $38.50 Current Price is $34.03 Difference: $4.47
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.28, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Sell (5) -

Challenger's 1H results (released today) were largely in line with expectations, and were a slight beat on profit, according to Citi's initial assessment.

The broker feels the market may appreciate FY24 guidance, which is now expected to reach the top half of the original range based on continued momentum in Life, as well as an improved 2H for Funds Management.

The company's 1H normalised profit (NPBT) of $290m was $1m above forecasts by the broker and company supplied consensus. Cash operating earnings (COE) for Life of $360m exceeded the consensus forecast for $355m.

Funds Management earnings (EBIT) of $29m were -7% below the analyst's $31m estimate, due mainly to a lower contribution from CIP Asset Management as margins fell, although late inflows indicate a better 2H result.

Sell rating. Target price $6.05.

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $6.58 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.78, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COH as Underweight (5) -

With Cochlear expected to report its first half result in the next week, Morgan Stanley isn't anticipating any surprise. The company has pre-guided to a $1,113m topline result and underlying net profits of $192m. Cochlear also disclosed 14% growth in cochlear implant units.

With 30% earnings per share growth anticipated over the full year, Morgan Stanley expects the market will focus on early predictions for FY25 and whether Cochlear can support another year of outsized growth. The broker sees limited upside risk to its forecast 11% growth in FY25.

The Underweight rating and target price of $258.00 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $258.00 Current Price is $321.71 Difference: minus $63.71 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $245.92, suggesting downside of -24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Results are due today for CSL. 

Citi maintains its Buy rating and target price for CSL after yesterday's news the CSL112 Phase 3 trial failed to meet its primary end-point of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) reduction at 90 days.

Management notes CSL112 was well tolerated with a good safety profile, but has no plans for a near-term regulatory filing. The broker values CSL112 at $20/share in its unchanged $325 target.

Target price is $325.00 Current Price is $290.24 Difference: $34.76
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $324.78, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

CSL did not meet the primary endpoint of the Phase 3 AEGIS-II trial and has no plans for a near-term regulatory filing. Macquarie has removed a risked contribution of $5/share for the drug from its valuation.

The broker sees growth for CSL as supported by a base recovery, including increased plasma collection supporting improved revenue, with potential contributions from other pipeline products, and operational efficiencies.

Target falls to $317.50 from $322.50, Outperform retained.

Target price is $317.50 Current Price is $290.24 Difference: $27.26
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $324.78, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

In an outcome largely anticipated by Morgan Stanley, heart attack drug CSL112 has failed phase three trials, proving unable to meet primary efficacy endpoints. CSL has no plans for a near-term regulatory filing off the back of (failed) trial results.

The broker points out further trial analysis continues, and primary results will be presented in early April. Potential financial contribution from the drug is not included in CSL's outlook statements.

Morgan Stanley anticipates some downside share price reaction to the announcement. The Overweight rating and target price of $318.00 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $318.00 Current Price is $290.24 Difference: $27.76
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $324.78, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett reduces its forecast likelihood of CSL112 product approval to 0% from 60%. This follows yesterday's CSL announcement that top-line results from the Phase 3 clinical trial failed to meet its primary efficacy endpoint of MACE reduction at 90 days.

MACE stands for major adverse cardiovascular events.

The Accumulate rating is maintained and the target reduced to $310 from $330.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $290.24 Difference: $19.76
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $324.78, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

CSL's interim result, released this morning, was broadly in line with management reiterating guidance for the full year, but Vifor's outlook has been tempered, which might take the gloss off today's release, UBS suggests upon first assessment.

UBS analysts are "encouraged" by the circa 10% beat in Ig sales growth in combination with the -10% reduction in plasma costs per litre.

The broker's modeling is already assuming a lower growth path for Vifor throughout the years ahead.

Buy. Target $350.

Target price is $350.00 Current Price is $290.24 Difference: $59.76
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $324.78, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FBU as Outperform (1) -

Fletcher Building has entered a trading halt until midday tomorrow. The company is due to release first half earnings tomorrow.

The board will advise on Wednesday on first half provisions and impairments, FY24 guidance and an interim dividend, if there is one. At the same time, the CEO will inform if he has "reconsidered his position".

Macquarie notes Fletcher Building has been materially de-rated against its peers. A core result re-rating has not occurred largely due to ongoing Significant Item issues.

No change to forecasts and NZ$6.03 target at this stage. Outperform retained.

Current Price is $3.70. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 45.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDF as Add (1) -

Compared to the previous corresponding period of $7.6m, 1H funds from operations (FFO) for Garda Property was only $7m due to asset sales and higher interest costs, explains Morgans.

The broker notes the group has now exited all Melbourne office properties and applied proceeds to reduce debt and provide backing for industrial development projects in Brisbane. The $495m portfolio is now 80%-weighted to SE QLD industrial.

Management has kept DPS guidance at 6.3cpu.

The Add rating and $1.65 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.42
If GDF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates JAN as Buy (1) -

A soft, although broadly in line, first half update from Janison Education, says Bell Potter, with the company reporting an earnings result of just $1.6m, down -37% year-on-year. Revenue was largely flat year-on-year at $22.2m, while gross profit declined -5% to $13.6m.

Both net cash and free cash flow proved better than expected, the former due to improved debtor collection and interest income and the latter on reduced capital expenditure spend. 

No full year guidance at this stage, but the company suggests there is a healthy pipeline of solutions deals at various stages of tender.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to 50 cents from 55 cents.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.18
If JAN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Citi retains its $65 target and Buy rating for JB Hi-Fi following yesterday's 1H results, noting JB Hi-Fi Australia remains far more resilient than most expected, while The Good Guys also looks to be turning around.

The analysts' initial thoughts were summarised yesterday as follows:

In an initial response to today's result release, Citi noted JB Hi-Fi reported group earnings in line with the broker. While sales were -1% below, margins across JB Hi-Fi Australia and The Good Guys held up better than expected despite well flagged cost pressures.

An interim dividend of 158c was declared, slightly above below expectations of 155c.

Cost of doing business growth of 5% for JB Hi-Fi Australia and 3% for TGG is a reasonable result, Citi suggests, given the well documented cost pressures. Gross margins were down -84bps for JB Hi-Fi Australia but surprisingly up 16bps for TGG.

Inventory management remains "excellent", the broker suggests. A January update was considered strong given consumer weakness fears. Despite this, concerns on margins and the direction of consumer spending are likely to persist.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $60.58 Difference: $4.42
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.25, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

JB Hi-Fi's result came in ahead of Macquarie's expectations driven by stronger consumer confidence and tight cost control. JB Hi-Fi Australia remains the pace-setter in Consumer Electronics, the broker suggests.

The Good Guys' gross margin beat expectations, helped by product mix-shift towards higher margin Home Appliances, while JBH Australia dragged by increased on-floor discounting.

JB Hi-Fi boasts a "pristine" balance sheet, Macquarie notes, with no debt and $488m of net cash, and a high quality management team and resilient demand sees the broker lift its target to $64 from $55.

Valuation is rich, nonetheless, hence Neutral retained.

Target price is $64.00 Current Price is $60.58 Difference: $3.42
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.25, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JBH as Underweight (5) -

While top-line sales from JB Hi-Fi were largely in line, according to Morgan Stanley, earnings proved a beat to market expectations. The retailer reported earnings of $387m, reflecting a -19.3% year-on-year decline.

The broker explains the earnings beat as a result of higher than expected gross margins, underpinned by a shift towards higher margin categories within The Good Guys brand, and lower than expected cost of doing business. 

While costs of doing business did lift in the period, cost control was better than forecast. With staff costs expected to continue to pressure in the second half, management noted staff hours from The Good Guys were lighter than expected.

The Underweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $50.00 from $43.90. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $60.58 Difference: minus $10.58 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $56.25, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JBH as Hold (3) -

JB Hi-Fi's 1H profit of $264.3m was a 6% beat compared to Morgans forecast for $248.9m, while in the first month of the 2H (January) sales growth accelerated compared to the 1H for both JB Hi-Fi Australia and The Good Guys.

Despite intense inflationary pressure, the broker highlights sales only fell by -2% year-on-year and margins held up better-than-expected.

Discipline over costs was exemplary, according to the analyst, with the ratio of cost-of-doing-business (CODB) to sales increasing by 90bps to 12.4%, compared to Morgans forecast for 12.7%.

The interim dividend of 158cps was at a consistent payout ratio of 65%.

The target rises to $61 from $51. The Hold rating is maintained on valuation.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $60.58 Difference: $0.42
If JBH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.25, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JBH as Sell (5) -

While 1H sales momentum improved slightly for JB Hi-Fi, despite cost-of-living pressure, Ord Minnett expects customers will ultimately increase savings and reduce spending on non-essential items like consumer electronics.

Sales of durable consumer goods are also likely to suffer in the medium-term, suggests the analyst, as brought-forward demand from the pandemic eases.

The Sell rating is unchanged on material overvaluation, and the target rises by 3% to $37.50 due to the time value of money and a 12% increase in the FY24 earnings forecast.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $60.58 Difference: minus $23.08 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $56.25, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

JB Hi-Fi's first half sales and earnings were down year on year but profit beat consensus, UBS notes. JB Australia and The Good Guys posted beats while JB New Zealand fell short. Trading was resilient, the broker notes, despite trade feedback of softness.

The company's cost of doing business growth and CODB-to-sales were again very well managed, UBS suggests. The broker is confident that earnings margins will settle at a higher level than pre-covid for JB Australia, and even higher margins will be achieved for TGG.

The broker nevertheless retains Neutral despite resilient sales and strong cost management, as share price performance reduces valuation support and incremental risk/reward. Target rises to $60 from $55.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $60.58 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $56.25, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

In an initial assessment, Citi feels both today's 3Q result and FY24 guidance by James Hardie Industries were weighed down by higher reinvestment into the business.

The broker awaits more detail from management, particularly around a significant rise in SG&A costs during Q3, which were not accounted for by consensus.

Net income of $180m exceeded the consensus forecast by 5%, and was toward the top end of the guidance range, notes the analyst, while FY24 profit guidance of $165-185m was slightly below the $187m consensus forecast.

A 32.7% margin was higher than the 30-32% guidance range, which helped drive an around 6% earnings (EBIT) beat, explains Citi.

Buy rating. Target price of $55.30.

Target price is $55.30 Current Price is $59.20 Difference: minus $3.9 (current price is over target).
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $57.64, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LNK as No Rating (-1) -

On a preview of Link Administration's first half result, Morgan Stanley has updated its earning forecasts to reflect company guidance.

Following the recently completed sales of the BCM and Fund Solutions divisions, the broker increases its earnings forecasts 4%, assuming improved operating conditions for the remaining divisions. Full year net profits lift 54% on timing of proceeds from the sales.

The broker also lifts its full year net profits for FY25 by 5% on improved operating conditions.

Morgan Stanley is currently on research restriction for Link Administration and no rating or target price are set. Industry view: In-Line.

Current Price is $2.19. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting downside of -15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NOU as Initiation of coverage with Buy, Speculative Risk (1) -

Bell Potter has initiated coverage on Noumi, a market leader in plant based dairy substitutes and UHT dairy beverages through its brands Milklab and Australia's Own. 

The broker has initiated with a favourable view of the stock, given Noumi is not only a market leader which has reported 15% compound revenue growth per annum over the past five years, but also has exposure to rising milk fat pricing trends.

Bell Potter sees the capital structure as approaching an inflection point, where earnings growth is of greater benefit to equity holders than note holders. It expects this value shift to peak in FY25 and begin to favour common equity.

The broker initiates coverage with a Buy, Speculative Risk rating and a target price of 15.5 cents.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.045
If NOU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PFP as Buy (1) -

Propel Funeral Partners has successfully undertaken a $90m capital raising, comprised of an $80m institutional placement and a $10m share purchase plan. Raised funds will pay down debt in order to provide financial flexibility to purchase further growth initiatives.

The company's first half trading update revealed a 2% earnings beat to Bell Potter's expectations. Full year guidance of revenue between $200-220m and operating earnings between $54-60m were reiterated.

Bell Potter continues to consider Propel Funeral Partners' growth well supported by strong underlying business, as well as its merger and acquisition firepower.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $6.20 from $5.90.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.25 Difference: $0.95
If PFP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.12, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie - Cessation of coverage

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has reviewed 16 offshore Dec Q results for insurers as a read-through for QBE Insurance. The broker estimates premium rates are holding at around 8.5% for QBE’s mix, as North American pricing accelerates and Australia holds at all-time highs, offsetting European weakness.

QBE is trading at a an 11.6% PE premium to international peers versus a -0.4% three-year average discount, but the broker suggests this is reflecting peer weakness, being more affected by global economic challenges, rather than QBE strength.

Outperform and $16.60 target retained.

Target price is $16.60 Current Price is $16.64 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.61, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Overweight (1) -

Scentre Group is estimating it will pay a second half distribution of 8.35 cents per share, bringing the company's full year distribution to 16.6 cents per share. 

Morgan Stanley points out this implies a small beat to the company's guided minimum 16.5 cents per share distribution, and likely suggests Scentre Group will deliver funds from operations towards the top end of its guidance range. 

The broker is forecasting 21.3 cents pre share funds from operations, ahead of the company's reporting later this month.

The Overweight rating and target price of $3.30 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.18
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SM1 as Hold (3) -

Synlait Milk has lowered full year guidance, although detail remains scant. The company now expects earnings will be broadly flat or down year-on-year, previously guiding to an expected year-on-year improvement.

For the first half the company is guiding to a -NZ$17-21m loss, which Bell Potter explains as a result of higher funding and overhead costs, and lower margins in the ingredients and nutritional business.

With Bell Potter's forecasts now assuming ongoing ownership of the Dairyworks asset, the broker lowers its net profit forecasts through to FY26.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to 75 cents from 95 cents.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.075
If SM1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SM1 as Underperform (5) -

Synlait Milk has provided a first half update, guiding profit a loss of -NZ$17-21m from a prior "down year on year". The extent of the decline was more than Macquarie expected.

Headwinds include higher interest and operating costs, along with weaker product margins. No update on the de-leveraging progress was provided.

Synlait has de-rated a long way, but is yet to demonstrate margin recovery to underpin a return on invested capital uplift, Macquarie notes. Balance sheet risk remains should the Dairyworks sale not be achieved, but other options do exist.

Underperform retained, target falls to NZ68c from NZ$1.25.

Current Price is $0.68. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as No Rating (-1) -

Following a period of research restriction on Santos due to failed merger talks with Woodside Energy, Citi resumes with a $7.75 target and Neutral rating, compared to the prior $8.25 and Buy recommendation from research issued on December 19.

The broker reduces its long-term spot JKM LNG price forecast from 2027 onwards, and increases the risk weight on Barossa to 90% from 75% following approvals for drilling and pipe lay.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $7.34 Difference: $0.41
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.44, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TPW as Neutral (3) -

In an early assessment of today's 1H results for Temple & Webster, Citi notes almost all indicators were positive with revenue and adjusted earnings (EBITDA) beating consensus forecasts by 18%.

The analyst believes the upside surprise stems from either better conversion rates or better channel mix during the period. The margin was at the top-end of the guidance range, but in line with consensus, notes the broker.

As distribution, employee and other costs have declined as a percentage of sales, Citi sees greater flexibility for management to investment in brand, product and marketing.

The broker also highlights repeat customers now represent a greater proportion of active customers, potentially indicating better sustainability for both revenue and brand value.

Target $7.40. Neutral.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $10.02 Difference: minus $2.62 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.66, suggesting downside of -30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Sell (5) -

Following a period of research restriction on Woodside Energy, Citi resumes with a Sell rating and $27 target, after cancelled merger talks with Santos. The broker had a Sell rating and $26.50 target in mid-December last year.

The analysts are uncomfortable Woodside is reliant on M&A for reinvestment and are wary that management has previously overpaid.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $31.17 Difference: minus $4.17 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.82, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOR as Buy (1) -

The US government recently announced a temporary pause on pending approvals for LNG exports to non-free trade agreement countries, until the Department of Energy updates its underlying analyses for authorisations.

Worley was awarded a contract for Phase 1 of the CP2 LNG project last May. UBS' analysis suggests the project is one of Worley's largest ever. But the broker's forecasts had not considered this unprecedented shift in US policy, which looks set to delay a number of LNG developments, including CP2 LNG.

This leads to earnings forecast cuts for Worley. Target falls to $21.30 from $22.50, Buy retained.

Target price is $21.30 Current Price is $15.60 Difference: $5.7
If WOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.48, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources