Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates API as Underperform (5) -

The company has launched a non-binding offer to acquire Sigma ((SIG)), comprising cash and shares and implying a total value of 68.6c per Sigma share, a 69% premium to the last close. API has also acquired a 12.95% stake in Sigma.

Credit Suisse believes consolidation is the key to improving profitability in the industry but the risk of the ACCC blocking the takeover is high.

While there are players in the market since the ACCC blocked a merger bid in 2002, the broker notes the market share is still as concentrated and this may be of concern.

Target is $1.55. Underperform rating maintained.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.48 Difference: $0.07
If API meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates DXS as Hold (3) -

Dexus has reported revaluation gains of $405m, or a 3.1% increase to its June 2018 book value. Deutsche Bank believes office cap rates will continue to compress over the next 12 months and retail cap rates should start softening.

The broker maintains a Hold rating and $10.71 target.

Target price is $10.71 Current Price is $11.26 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.67, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GWA as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Following a drop in the share price and the proposed acquisition of Methven, Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Earnings forecasts for FY19-21 are increased by 4-8%.

The company has made an all-cash offer for the Auckland-based designer and manufacturer of showers, taps and valves at NZ$1.60 a share, to be funded by existing debt facilities.

Citi believes the deal makes strategic sense as the Methven business complements GWA's bathrooms & kitchens.

The company's exposure to renovations and replacements in Australia will increase to 57% and Methven will expand the geographic footprint. Target is raised to $3.69 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.69 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.77
If GWA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates GWA as Hold (3) -

The company has proposed the acquisition of Methven, an NZ-listed designer and manufacturer of taps, showers and valves. The acquisition price of NZ$118m implies a 10x enterprise value/EBITDA acquisition multiple, in Deutsche Bank's calculations.

While the acquisition appears accretive the broker is concerned about a continued downturn in Australian and, to a lesser extent, NZ residential markets.

Hold rating retained. Target is $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.18
If GWA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GWA as Hold (3) -

The company has offered to buy NZ-listed Methven for NZ$140m. The all-cash offer price of NZ$1.60 represents a 39% premium to the last close, Morgans notes. Synergies of at least $5m are expected by FY21 and Morgans is confident the targets can be met.

The broker observes the acquisition opens up a range of opportunities outside of Australia but execution is the key risk as GWA will need to manage a much more geographically diverse business. Hold retained. Target is reduced to $3.00 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.08
If GWA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ING as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi notes modest price increases in the first half but also the more significant cost headwind in the second half. The broker suspects there may be lower near-term earnings to support future growth, as building new areas for growth may require upfront marketing and product development.

Inghams has defensive characteristics which have led to a re-rating over the past three months yet the broker is cautious about the next 12 months and downgrades to Sell from Neutral. Target is raised to $3.85 from $3.57.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $4.28 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If ING meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting downside of -9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates JHX as Buy (1) -

Executive vice president of sales, Zean Nielsen, will leave the company. During his tenure, since August 2017, Deutsche Bank notes the company has struggled to return its primary demand growth in the US to the 6% target.

The broker suspects this has been caused by a moderating of vinyl's share loss, in part because of the relative strength of entry-level housing and in the west of the country where stucco is 50% of the market.

The broker believes the company is making the right decisions and maintains a Buy rating and $19.10 target.

Target price is $19.10 Current Price is $15.21 Difference: $3.89
If JHX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.24, suggesting upside of 39.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MNF as Overweight (1) -

The company has completed the acquisition of Telco In A Box and Morgan Stanley incorporates the acquired earnings and softer AGM guidance into its modelling. The broker believes the acquisition provides scale and synergies.

Guidance for margin growth is still below Morgan Stanley's forecasts, even with re-basing expectations higher for the combined group. Target is reduced to $6.30 from $7.30.

Overweight rating reiterated. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $2.41
If MNF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PAN as Reinstate Coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reinstates coverage with an Outperform rating and 70c target. The company is in the process of re-starting production at Savannah. First concentrate shipments are expected in January.

The company closed the mine in 2016 because of weak nickel prices. Macquarie expects the current incarnation will be operating at better economics because of improved pay terms and higher average grades at Savannah North, the deposit which transformed the outlook.

This should deliver significant free cash flow. The company is funding the re-start through a $40m debt facility which should be paid in two years.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.32
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

Ramsay Health Care has continued to perform strongly relative to its UK peers, October NHS data has revealed. Overall, industry growth remains relatively subdued, up 4.1% in the month.

Ramsay UK represented around 8% of group revenue and around 4% of operating earnings (EBIT) in FY18. UBS maintains a Neutral rating and $56 target.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $54.82 Difference: $1.18
If RHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $58.53, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SIG as Neutral (3) -

Australian Pharma ((API)) has made a non-binding acquisition proposal after moving to a 12.95% stake in Sigma. There are significant conditions, Citi observes, including due diligence and Sigma board recommendation.

The broker points out an attempt to merge was made in 2002 which was not approved by the ACCC, although the drug distribution market has changed substantially since then.

While it remains hard to argue the merger would not lessen competition, Citi notes this is an unusual market in that it is highly regulated and the federal government sets drug prices.

Neutral/High Risk rating retained. Target is $0.54.

Target price is $0.54 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.47, suggesting downside of -17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SIG as Underperform (5) -

Sigma has received a non-binding indicative proposal from Australian Pharma Industries ((API)). Sigma has not granted due diligence as yet, as it wants to assess the true value of the business through the Accenture analysis.

While Credit Suisse believes Sigma is willing to engage, the delay raises concerns that a deal may not eventuate. The risk of an objection from the ACCC is also high, as a merger was dismissed in 2002 on the basis of competition concerns.

With the risk the deal does not eventuate and downside risk to earnings for the near-term, Credit Suisse maintains an Underperform rating. Target is 48c.

Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.47, suggesting downside of -17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SIG as Underweight (5) -

Australian Pharma Industries ((API)) has increased its stake in Sigma to 12.95% and made a non-binding indicative acquisition proposal. API would own 63% of the combined entity and Sigma would receive 0.31 API shares and 23c cash for each share.

This implies 69c a share, on Morgan Stanley's calculation. The broker believes the FY21 EBIT outlook for Sigma needs clarification, given the end of the Chemist Warehouse contract in mid FY20.

Given a significantly weaker position post this contract, the broker suspects the ACCC may be more lenient with respect to any consolidation.

Underweight retained. Industry view: In-Line. Target is $0.41.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.47, suggesting downside of -17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VLW as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

The company has guided to first half net profit of $16-17m and a distribution of 8c. However, FY19 guidance has been withdrawn, because of uncertain pre-sales settlement timing and a deterioration in recent sales and enquiries.

Morgans asserts the implied deterioration in sales over the past four weeks puts downside risk on earnings over FY19/20.

Continued negative sentiment and news flow in the sector is likely to weigh on valuation and the share price. The broker downgrades to Hold from Add and reduces the target to $1.87 from $2.46.

Morgans acknowledges acquisition opportunities but would prefer to witness stabilisation in the sector before taking a more positive view.

Target price is $1.87 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.17
If VLW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VRT as Hold (3) -

AGM commentary has signalled a weaker trend in the last four months, with site re-location and lower cost services having an impact. Unlike prior years the first half will be weaker than the second.

Morgans revises forecasts -8.5% lower in FY19. The target is reduced to $4.75 from $5.67. Hold maintained.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.47 Difference: $0.28
If VRT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.80, suggesting upside of 29.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources