Australian Broker Call

UBS rates ALD as Buy (1) -

The sale of Ampol's electricity retail operations will allow the company some balance sheet flexibility to upgrade its network, UBS explains.

UBS believes the company will seek to change over the poorest sites where gross margins do not cover labour costs to U-Go unmanned sites.

The analyst highlights existing converted sites are generating higher fuel volumes and a payback on conversion of slightly in excess of one year.

Based on media reports, the EG Group Australia is looking to sell its 540 convenience sites and the analyst models potential acquisition scenarios, pointing to the potential for over 5% EPS accretion based on a $400m equity raising.

UBS raises its EPS estimates by 2% in FY25 and 7% in FY26 to reflect higher earnings (EBITDA) from leaving energy retailing, with the sale to be finalised in 4Q 2025 with sales proceeds of some $65m at a pre-tax level.

The stock remains Buy rated. Target lifts to $31.50 from $31.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $25.91 Difference: $5.59
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.00, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Buy (1) -

Citi believes AMP’s new digital-only bank has the potential to lift returns from its underperforming banking division, though material benefits are not expected until beyond FY26.

The broker notes near-term guidance targets stable net interest margins and modest loan growth, with any earnings uplift from the new platform likely to take time.

AMP’s strategic partners give Citi confidence in the long-term value opportunity, even if it currently attributes no value from the bank in its valuation.

Earnings forecasts are lifted by 2% for FY25–FY27 on mark-to-market adjustments, and the broker expects modestly positive flow commentary at AMP’s July 21 briefing.

Citi raises its target price for AMP to $1.65. The last target price in the FNArena database was $1.30. The Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.19
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.54, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARF as Outperform (1) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

Minor changes to Arena REIT's forecasts. Outperform and $3.96 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $3.96 Current Price is $3.60 Difference: $0.36
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.28, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASK as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Abacus Storage King received a revised offer at $1.65/security, up from the previously rejected offer of $1.47, from the consortium of Ki Corporation and Public Storage.

The broker assesses the new offer is at a -4.6% discount to the revised net tangible assets of $1.73 and may still not be enough to convince minority shareholders to accept it.

The raise is, however, a positive for self-storage valuations given the interest in the sector from large global investors, the analyst highlights.

Buy. Target unchanged at $1.40.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.48 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.53, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BKW as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Noting the merger between Brickworks and WH Soul Pattinson ((SOL)) to form a new ASX-listed company TopCo, UBS flags the removal of around 148m shares cross-held between the two companies, with Brickworks, WH Soul Pattinson and new shareholders to own around 72%, 19% and 9%, respectively.

The broker points to the TopCo equity raising of $1.4bn for 34m shares, which will be used to pay down some of Brickworks' debt and fund transaction costs.

UBS views the Australian building products market has bottomed, but US conditions are expected to remain challenging.

With the market giving the nod of approval to the deal and both Brickworks and WH Soul Pattinson shares up around 13% and 24%, respectively, UBS downgrades Brickworks to Neutral from Buy.

Target price rises 18% due to the mark-to-market of listed investments and is set at $34.25.

Target price is $34.25 Current Price is $33.46 Difference: $0.79
If BKW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.79, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

Citi notes sequential improvement in used car sales across Australia and Korea in June, with rising dealer transactions in Australia seen as a positive for CAR Group's high-margin Dealer segment.

Korean used car volumes remain in decline, though the pace of contraction moderated in June, and the broker expects Encar’s growth to benefit from rising guarantee penetration and recent price increases.

The analyst flags macro weakness in Brazil, linked to new tariffs, as a potential headwind, though suggests used car demand tends to be more resilient in such conditions.

Citi retains a Buy rating and a $42.60 target price.

Target price is $42.60 Current Price is $37.26 Difference: $5.34
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.40, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHC as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker lifted the FY25 EPS forecast for Charter Hall by 0.5%, and FY26 by 1.0%. 

Target rises to $17.31 from $17.15. Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on valuation.

Target price is $17.15 Current Price is $19.13 Difference: minus $1.98 (current price is over target).
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.13, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CIA as Buy (1) -

Champion Iron is expected to report 1Q26 production and earnings on July 30, with Bell Potter flagging 3.5mt, with the previous quarter impacted by maintenance, and sales of 3.7mt versus the last quarter at 3.5mt; a quarterly record due to inventory drawdown and rail improvements.

The analyst expects costs to come in around CA$80/t, same as the previous quarter, and has updated iron ore prices for the June quarter slightly higher for the 62% Fe CFR China index average to US$97/t versus the previous estimate of US$95/t, and 65% Fe CFR China index average at US$109/t against US$117/t in the previous period.

Bell Potter lowers its EPS estimates by -16% for FY26 and -15% for FY27. Buy retained with target trimmed to $5.40 from $5.80.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.8
If CIA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIP as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker cut the FY25 EPS forecast for Centuria Industrial REIT by -0.3% but lifted the FY26 forecast by 4% on higher income growth following under-renting in the portfolio.

Target falls to $3.22 from $3.34. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $3.22 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.09
If CIP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CLW as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

No change to the broker's FY25 EPS forecast for Charter Hall Long WALE REIT but a 2.6% lift to the FY26 forecast.

Target falls to $3.52 from $3.73 as the broker forecasts 20bps of cap rate expansion vs before. Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on valuation.

Target price is $3.52 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNI as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker lifted the FY25 EPS forecast for Centuria Capital by 0.2% but lowered the FY26 forecast by -1%. 

Target rises to $1.79 from $1.78. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on valuation.

Target price is $1.79 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.04
If CNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Chorus reported stable broadband connections of 1.174m in the fourth quarter, with fibre uptake increasing 0.1 percentage points to 72.1%, supported by modest net additions of 8,000.

Copper disconnections accelerated with only 13,000 connections remaining in fibre-covered areas, and full withdrawal is expected by the broker in mid-2026.

Chorus reaffirmed FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of NZ$700–$720m, though the analyst expects results to be at the lower end of the range given ongoing cyclical headwinds and subdued average revenue per user (ARPU) growth.

Outperform. Target unchanged at NZ$9.83.

Current Price is $7.79. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COG as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans updates its Financial Services sector earnings forecasts on a mark-to-market basis and a review of underlying assumptions.

The broker highlights Generation Development, MA Financial, and Tyro Payments as its key sector picks.

For COG Financial Services, Morgans raises its target to $1.87 from $1.72. Accumulate.

While cyclical headwinds have weighed on COG's recent earnings, the broker believes the business offers compelling long-term value.

Target price is $1.87 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.22
If COG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.67, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley lowers its target for Computershare to $33.70 from $34.40 and downgrades to Underweight from Equal-weight, noting limited EPS growth beyond FY25. Industry View: In-Line.

The analysts also see downside risk to margin income (MI), which has comprised over 70% of profit (PBT) since FY23.

The broker forecasts FY26 earnings Management EPS growth of just 3%, down from 15% in FY25, driven by an around -8% fall in MI, moderating yields and weaker balance growth.

While improved capital markets may benefit event-driven and transactional revenues, weak issuance in trust services and falling rates present further risk to balances, suggests the broker.

Target price is $34.70 Current Price is $40.83 Difference: minus $6.13 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.60, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CQR as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker cut the FY25 EPS forecast for Charter Hall Retail REIT by -0.4% and by -1% for FY26.

Target unchanged at $3.51. Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral for valuation reasons.

Target price is $3.51 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If CQR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.82, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CVW as Buy (1) -

Morgans updates its Financial Services sector earnings forecasts on a mark-to-market basis and a review of underlying assumptions.

The broker highlights Generation Development, MA Financial, and Tyro Payments as its key sector picks.

There are no changes to earnings forecasts and the analyst's price target moves to 68c from 67c. Buy.

Target price is $0.68 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.21
If CVW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DGT as Outperform (1) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker cut the FY25 EPS forecast for Digico Infrastructure REIT by -0.8% but lifted the FY26 forecast by 28.1% on scrip-based management fee assumption vs cash before.

The stock is an outlier where the broker is 11% ahead of consensus for FY25 earnings.

Target falls to $4.35 from $5.36 as the broker increased the beta in the valuation to reflect stock market volatility. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $1.36
If DGT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 65.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXI as Outperform (1) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker lifted the FY25 EPS forecast for Dexus Industria REIT by 0.2% and by 1.2% for FY26.

Target falls to $2.86 from $3.18. Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.86 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.14
If DXI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.94, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXS as Outperform (1) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

No change to FY25 AFFO forecast for Dexus but FY26 forecast cut by -1.1%. The stock is among the broker's key picks in the large caps space.

Target falls to $7.50 from $8.08. Outperform retained.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.89 Difference: $0.61
If DXS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.82, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FDV as Buy (1) -

Morgans updates its Financial Services sector earnings forecasts on a mark-to-market basis and a review of underlying assumptions.

The broker highlights Generation Development, MA Financial, and Tyro Payments as its key sector picks.

The analyst acknowledges Frontier Digital Ventures continues to face challenging operating conditions, with growth subdued in recent periods.

Despite this, it's felt the market is underappreciating the company's long-term strategic position as a leading classifieds operator across multiple emerging markets.

Buy. Target 58c.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.31
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 115% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans updates its Financial Services sector earnings forecasts on a mark-to-market basis and a review of underlying assumptions.

The broker highlights Generation Development, MA Financial, and Tyro Payments as its key sector picks.

For Generation Development, the analyst expects a mixed 4Q25 update.

While strong sales of Investment Bond sales are likely, supported by anticipated tax changes to Superannuation balances above $3m, Morgans sees downside risk to newly-acquired Evidentia meeting its $18bn FY25 funds under management (FUM) target.

The target eases to $6.00 from $6.04. Accumulate.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.10 Difference: $0.9
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker cut the FY25 EPS forecast for Goodman Group by -0.1% and by -0.7% for FY26. 

Target falls to $35.24 from $36.06. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform for valuation reasons.

Target price is $35.24 Current Price is $33.74 Difference: $1.5
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.90, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOZ as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

Forecasts for Growthpoint Properties Australia largely unchanged.

Target falls to $2.40 from $2.57. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on valuation grounds.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.06
If GOZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GPT as Outperform (1) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker lifted the FY25 FFO per security forecast for GPT Group by 0.3% but cut FY26 by -1.2%. The stock is among the broker's top picks in the large caps space.

For 1H25 the analyst forecasts FFO per security of 16.1c, in line with 1H24.

Target falls to $5.36 from $5.38. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $5.36 Current Price is $5.01 Difference: $0.35
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HCW as Outperform (1) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

No change to FFO/security forecasts for HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT.

Target falls to $0.91 from $1.05. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $0.91 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.17
If HCW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.93, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HDN as Neutral (3) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker marginally lifted the FY25 EPS forecast for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT by 0.2% but cut the FY26 forecast by -3.5%.

Target rises to $1.15 from $1.14 on modestly higher cap rate expansion. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If HDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFL as No Rating (-1) -

Citi updates forecasts for Insignia Financial to reflect stronger equity markets in the June quarter, lifting FY25 EPS by 2% and FY26–27 by 4%.

The broker notes management is scheduled to release a fourth-quarter flow update on July 24.

Citi currently has its rating on Insignia Financial suspended.

Current Price is $4.00. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.60, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Buy (1) -

Iluka Resources shares have rallied following a US Department of Defense deal with US-based MP Materials, which includes a 10-year price floor of US$110/kg for NdPr versus spot of US$63.6/kg.

Citi sees further upside for Iluka if such pricing can be realised, noting Australia's strategic mineral reserve plans could bolster future international cooperation.

At US$110/kg NdPr, Iluka's Eneabba refinery unrisked valuation would lift to $1.40 per share, taking the broker's Iluka’s discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation to $5.80 per share.

Citi maintains a Buy/High Risk rating and a $5.20 target price.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $0.31
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.43, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

The Trump administration has entered a 10-year public-private partnership with US-based MP Materials, guaranteeing a price floor of US$110/kg for NdPr starting 4Q25.

The US Department of Defense will also fund a heavy rare earth separation facility and support expansion of magnet production to 10ktpa.

While automakers are exploring premium payments for ex-China NdPr at around US$80/kg (incl VAT), this remains well below the US$110/kg (ex VAT) secured in MP's deal, explains Morgan Stanley.

The broker suggests the Department of Defense’s initiative may prompt other nations to accelerate the development of their own magnet and rare earth supply chains.

Lynas Rare Earths and Iluka Resources are seen by the analysts as prime beneficiaries of this potential shift.

Morgan Stanley is Overweight on Iluka Resources with a $4.65 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.43, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett notes rare earths companies, including Iluka Resources (up 21%), rose after MP Materials signed a deal with the US Department of Defense guaranteeing US$100/kg for NdPr. 

The broker highlights the deal was exclusive to MP Materials, reflecting the US's strategic interests and "America First" policies and doesn't have implications for other companies, including Iluka.

The broker assumes US$94/kg as sufficient to stimulate global supply. 

Target price cut to $5.50 from $5.90 on revisions to price forecasts for REOs, mineral sands and AUD/USD. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $0.61
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.43, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JLG as Hold (3) -

Johns Lyng has entered into a scheme of arrangement with Pacific Equity Partners to acquire 100% of the group for $4 per share, which values equity at $1.1bn.

Morgans believes investors should wait for the numerous approvals from FIRB, ASIC and ASX, if another offer does not emerge.

The broker views the offer price as reasonable and fair given the recent share price weakness and the need to rebuild NSW volumes. Target price moves to $4 in line with the offer and Hold rating retained. No change to Morgans' EPS forecasts.

The broker notes independent directors have unanimously supported the deal and recommended shareholders vote in favour of the takeover.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.1
If JLG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting downside of -21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KSL as Buy (1) -

Morgans updates its Financial Services sector earnings forecasts on a mark-to-market basis and a review of underlying assumptions.

The broker highlights Generation Development, MA Financial, and Tyro Payments as its key sector picks.

The target price for Kina Securities rises to $1.46 from $1.44 on a valuation roll-forward. Buy.

Target price is $1.46 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.15
If KSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in PGK. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates KYP as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of Kinatico with a Buy rating and 30c target price.

The company is a major provider of "know your people" solutions for A&NZ organisations, with CVCheck the legacy business for screening and verification services to over 10k repeat corporate customers.

The analyst explains Kinatico's strategic focus is now on a SaaS-based workforce compliance management and monitoring system, of which the existing customers are potentially conversion customers.

In 2024, the SaaS business generated around one-third of total revenue and is anticipated to advance to two-thirds by FY27, Bell Potter notes, which is expected to lift the level of recurring revenue.

Kinatico is profitable and has $10m of cash on the balance sheet with no debt.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.08
If KYP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLC as Outperform (1) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker cut the FY25 EPS forecast for Lendlease Group by -4.8% and by a sharp -25.3% for FY26, reflecting the timing of profit from One Circular Quay development.

Target falls to $7.23 from $7.79. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $7.23 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $1.99
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting upside of 28.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Overweight (1) -

The Trump administration has entered a 10-year public-private partnership with US-based MP Materials, guaranteeing a price floor of US$110/kg for NdPr starting 4Q25.

The US Department of Defense will also fund a heavy rare earth separation facility and support expansion of magnet production to 10ktpa.

While automakers are exploring premium payments for ex-China NdPr at around US$80/kg (incl VAT), this remains well below the US$110/kg (ex VAT) secured in MP's deal, explains Morgan Stanley.

The broker suggests the Department of Defense’s initiative may prompt other nations to accelerate the development of their own magnet and rare earth supply chains.

Lynas Rare Earths and Iluka Resources are seen by the analysts as prime beneficiaries of this potential shift.

Morgan Stanley is Overweight on Lynas Rare Earths with a $10.50 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.67 Difference: $0.83
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.19, suggesting downside of -18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MAF as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans updates its Financial Services sector earnings forecasts on a mark-to-market basis and a review of underlying assumptions.

The broker highlights Generation Development, MA Financial, and Tyro Payments as its key sector picks.

The analyst notes MA Financial typically delivers a significant 1H/2H earnings skew of around 40%/60%. The broker expects strong loan growth in MA Money to be the key highlight in 2Q25.

The target rises to $8.80 from $8.23. Accumulate.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.61 Difference: $1.19
If MAF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.85, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%.

For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January.

Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker cut the FY25 EPS forecast for Mirvac Group by -1.3% and by -6.2% for FY26, driven by revaluation of residential settlement forecasts. The stock is among the broker's top picks in the large caps space.

Target falls to $2.38 from $2.56. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $2.38 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.22
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.32, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NSR as Outperform (1) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker marginally lifted the FY25 EPS forecast for National Storage REIT by 0.1% and by 1.2% for FY26. 

Target rises to $2.44 from $2.42. Outperform remains.

Target price is $2.44 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.11
If NSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.51, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights Eraring Power Station's extended and stronger performance, suggesting greater system value amid the energy transition and upside risk to Origin Energy's near-term earnings.

The broker believes the market under appreciates Eraring’s optionality, with potential for closure delays or regulatory support strengthening the investment case.

Citi incorporates recent FY25 Octopus guidance downgrades but raises its valuation of the business, reflecting growing confidence in a Kraken and Octopus Energy demerger.

Citi raises its target price to $13 from $11.50 and maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.75 Difference: $1.25
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.10, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PXA as Hold (3) -

Morgans updates its Financial Services sector earnings forecasts on a mark-to-market basis and a review of underlying assumptions.

The broker highlights Generation Development, MA Financial, and Tyro Payments as its key sector picks.

Morgans lowers its FY25 and FY26 cash EPS forecasts for Pexa Group by -18% and -3%, respectively, reflecting weaker transaction volumes and margin expectations in the core PEXA Exchange business.

These revisions come off a low base, highlights the broker. The price target remains largely unchanged at $13.93, up from $13.90, as the earnings downgrades are offset by a valuation roll-forward. Hold rating unchanged.

Target price is $13.93 Current Price is $12.94 Difference: $0.99
If PXA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.27, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAL as Outperform (1) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker cut the FY25 EPS forecast for Qualitas by -1.5% but lifted the FY26 forecast by 2.8% on higher FUM forecasts.

Target rises to $3.73 from $3.10 on earnings revisions and valuation roll-forward. Outperform retained.

Target price is $3.73 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.22
If QAL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RGN as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker lifted the FY25 EPS forecast for Region Group by 0.1% and by 0.7% for FY26.

Target rises to $2.16 from $2.03. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform.

Target price is $2.16 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If RGN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.34, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SCG as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker lifted the FY25 EPS forecast for Scentre Group by 0.7% and by 1.7% for FY26. For 1H25, the analyst is forecasting EPS of 11.2c and DPS of 8.6c.

The stock is among the broker's least preferred in the REIT space.

Target falls to $3.18 from $3.34. Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on valuation.

Target price is $3.18 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

Citi expects SiteMinder's FY25 result to largely meet expectations, with its EBITDA forecast $1m above consensus. The focus will be on FY26, where an update on C-plus adoption/penetration will be key, the broker highlights.

Ahead of the result, the analyst cut FY26 revenue forecast by -1% and the EBITDA forecast by -10%. This is based on expectations of lower transaction revenue growth and lower C+-plus revenue, plus a lower gross margin and higher costs.

Buy. Target cut to $6.45 from $6.60.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $2.03
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.31, suggesting upside of 48.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker lifted the FY25 EPS forecast for Stockland by 0.1% but cut FY26 forecast by -1.9% on the timing of Masterplanned Communities and Land Lease Communities settlement recovery.

Target falls to $5.23 from $5.39. Neutral remains.

Target price is $5.23 Current Price is $5.41 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUN as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans updates its Financial Services sector earnings forecasts on a mark-to-market basis and a review of underlying assumptions.

The broker highlights Generation Development, MA Financial, and Tyro Payments as its key sector picks.

For Suncorp Group, the analyst raises FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts on slightly improved insurance margin assumptions.

The target price rises to $22.89 from $22.33. Accumulate.

Target price is $22.89 Current Price is $20.48 Difference: $2.41
If SUN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.43, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TYR as Buy (1) -

Morgans updates its Financial Services sector earnings forecasts on a mark-to-market basis and a review of underlying assumptions.

The broker highlights Generation Development, MA Financial, and Tyro Payments as its key sector picks.

Morgans forecasts Tyro Payments will deliver FY25 earnings (EBITDA) of $66m, up 6% year-on-year and a substantial turnaround from a negative -$4.5m in FY20.

The analyst highlights the company is trading at just 6 times EV/EBITDA, representing a steep discount to the circa 14.2 times forecast FY25 multiple implied in the recent SmartPay ((SMP)) acquisition.

The target eases to $1.55 from $1.60. Buy.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.63
If TYR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 43.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VCX as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

In a preview of the August earnings season, Macquarie sees limited earnings risk for Australian REITs, with FY25 EPS growth for the sector forecast at 4.3%. For FY26, the broker believes headwinds are reducing and expects EPS growth of 5.8%, with an acceleration to 10.6% growth in FY27.

Revised expectation for the cash rate is a key driver as Macquarie strategists now expect -125bps of rate cuts in this cycle vs -75bps forecast in January. Within the sector, the broker expects retail and logistics to be the top performers in terms of earnings, driven by income growth, low maintenance capital expenditures, and reduced lease incentive leakage.

The broker lifted the FY25 EPS forecast for Vicinity Centres by 0.4% and by 1.6% for FY26 on revised economic forecasts and higher re-leasing spreads. 

Target falls to $2.04 from $2.11. Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on valuation.

Target price is $2.04 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.34, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Citi points to a Bloomberg report last Friday that JPMorgan has proposed fees to FinTechs/aggregators for using its customer data.

The analyst notes both Xero and Zip Co ((ZIP)) access bank accounts in the US, and JP Morgan is thed number one in consumer banking as classified by retail deposits, with a market share of around 11%.

Citi does not view the potential impacts as material to either Xero or Zip, with the potential for Xero to raise prices to offset any cost increases. Recent acquisition Melio is potentially more exposed for bill payments.

Commentary stipulates neither company has received any notification from JP Morgan. Buy rated with $210 target.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $173.83 Difference: $36.17
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.17, suggesting upside of 23.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources