Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 360 as Buy (1) -

Citi notes international momentum in monthly active users (MAU) strengthened in December, with record net adds in triple-tier markets (AU/CA/UK) and a rebound in other international regions. 

This points to upside risk versus consensus expectations of a sharp q/q decline for Life360's international MAU net adds, the broker highlights. Improving MAU trends are seen as supportive of upside to international paying circle growth, with SensorTower data broadly correlating with reported Life360 figures.

The broker upgraded FY25 EBITDA forecast by 8% to US$87m, near the top of guidance, driven by stronger subscription revenue from international markets. FY26 EBITDA estimate is lifted modestly, with the broker still below consensus due to lower expected gross margins from hardware manufacturing relocation and pet tracker pricing.

Buy. Target for Nasdaq listing downgraded by -18% to US$79.50 from US$96.80 on lower peer multiples.

Current Price is $32.79. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $53.67, suggesting upside of 65.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure extended its on-market buyback by $750m and the timeframe by 12 months through to 5 March 2027. This is in addition to around $50m remaining under the current program, Citi notes.

The larger-than-expected buyback drove small upgrades of 0-1% to the broker's EPS forecasts for FY26-FY28.

Buy. Target unchanged at $71.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $56.65 Difference: $14.35
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $74.01, suggesting upside of 29.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALX as Hold (3) -

Morgans updated forecasts for Atlas Arteria to reflect new traffic, pricing, tax, financing and FX assumptions across APRR (Autoroutes Paris-Rhin-Rhone), Dulles Greenway and Chicago Skyway. This includes softer French CPI-linked toll escalation and higher Chicago Skyway funding costs.

The impact is earnings downgrades for APRR, near-term upgrades but longer-term downgrades for Dulles Greenway, and modest upgrades for Chicago Skyway.

Atlas Arteria's free cash flow and cash balance forecasts are revised lower, though the current 40c dividend is seen sustainable through the decade.

Target cut to $4.74 from $5.05. Hold maintained.

Target price is $4.74 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Brazilian used vehicle sales accelerated into the 2025 year-end, rising 20% y/y in December vs 17% in November.

Overall, 1H26 used vehicle sales rose 20% y/y, improving from 14% in 2H25.  This momentum poses upside risk to the broker's 23% y/y 1H26 forecast for Webmotors, where CAR Group has a majority stake.

Buy. Target price $42.55.

Target price is $42.55 Current Price is $30.46 Difference: $12.09
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.15, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HVN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie's holiday period analysis of High Frequency Consumer Data Series showed signs of pressure in electronics from discounting and trading down. Online channels saw higher average basket sizes, raising concerns about online specialists diluting the Australian system.

In 4Q2025, pharmacy and furniture were the standout positives, with furniture showing a notable turnaround despite softer electronics growth. The key negative was a slowing in electronics momentum, to low single-digits in 4Q2025 from high single-digits in 3Q2025. 

In the case of Harvey Norman, the impact is mixed, with slowing electronics momentum a key headwind offset by a recovery in furniture.

Neutral with an unchanged target of $7.60.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $6.64 Difference: $0.96
If HVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.48, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

After a period of cooling in 2025, Morgan Stanley believes insurers are well-placed to deliver strong returns in 2026. Reasons include resilient mid-to-high single-digit primary pricing in Australia and -10% to -20% declines in reinsurance costs.

QBE Insurance appears best positioned near term and may reset targets. Suncorp Group has multiple reinsurance options through midyear, while Insurance Australia Group offers stability but looks fully priced, in the broker's view.

Insurance Australia Group's Jan 2026 reinsurance renewal delivered a higher quota share and -10% lower pricing, unlocking capital and supporting margins, the broker notes. FY27 underlying margin forecast raised by 50bps and earnings forecasts by 1% despite higher QS and NZD headwinds.

The broker revised FY25-28 net profit forecasts by upto 1% on reinsurance changes and stronger yield expectations.

Target trimmed to $8.45 from $8.80 as earnings upgrades are offset by lower weighting to the bull scenario. Equal-weight retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $0.49
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.95, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFL as No Rating (-1) -

Given mixed equity market performance in the December quarter, Citi marked to market forecasts for Insignia Financial, resulting in a -2% cut to FY26-28 EPS forecasts.

The company is due to report 2Q26 flows and assets under management (AUM) on January 22, the broker notes.

Citi currently has its rating on Insignia Financial suspended.

Current Price is $4.62. Target price not assessed.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JBH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's holiday period analysis of High Frequency Consumer Data Series showed signs of pressure in electronics from discounting and trading down. Online channels saw higher average basket sizes, raising concerns about online specialists diluting the Australian system.

In 4Q2025, pharmacy and furniture were the standout positives, with furniture showing a notable turnaround despite softer electronics growth. The key negative was a slowing in electronics momentum, to low single-digits in 4Q2025 from high single-digits in 3Q2025. 

In the broker's view, downside risks for JB Hi-Fi are increasing due to softer electronics trends. Partial offset is likely from smaller-item store formats and management’s view that weak TV demand and some e-commerce sales may be captured within “Online.”

Outperform. Target price $121.

Target price is $121.00 Current Price is $93.50 Difference: $27.5
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $108.50, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's holiday period analysis of High Frequency Consumer Data Series showed signs of pressure in electronics from discounting and trading down. Online channels saw higher average basket sizes, raising concerns about online specialists diluting the Australian system.

In 4Q2025, pharmacy and furniture were the standout positives, with furniture showing a notable turnaround despite softer electronics growth. The key negative was a slowing in electronics momentum, to low single-digits in 4Q2025 from high single-digits in 3Q2025. 

Recovery in furniture is positive for Nick Scali despite a more cautious RBA policy backdrop, the broker highlights.

Outperform remains. Target price $29.30.

Target price is $29.30 Current Price is $23.69 Difference: $5.61
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.04, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEM as Accumulate (2) -

Newmont Corp stated the mid-December bushfires near its Boddington mine in WA did not affect 2025 production. There was only minor water infrastructure damage to be repaired by mid-February, with an immaterial -1% impact on 1Q2026 group output.

Following the update, Ord Minnett lifted its FY25 EPS estimate by 0.3%, but lowered FY26 by -1.5% to reflect lower March-quarter production.

Target unchanged at $160. Accumulate rating.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $157.43 Difference: $2.57
If NEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $169.40, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPT as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of Perpetual’s 2Q26 update, Citi marked forecasts to market for equity and FX moves, cutting EPS forecasts by -1% in FY26-27 and -2% in FY28.

The broker notes net outflows remained material in 1Q26, but there were early signs of moderation, with positive flows at Barrow Hanley and Perpetual Asset Management. The broker wonders if Barrow Hanley outperforms for the third straight quarter with net inflow.

Weaker markets and FX movements are likely to weigh on funds under management in the near term, in the broker's view, while cost-out initiatives remain on track and could be upgraded.

Overall, Citi reckons Perpetual is undervalued, but ongoing uncertainty around the potential Wealth Management sale, now in exclusivity with Bain until 1Q2026, continues to weigh on sentiment.

Neutral. Target cut to $20.60 from $20.80 on earnings downgrade.

Target price is $20.60 Current Price is $19.37 Difference: $1.23
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.80, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

After a period of cooling in 2025, Morgan Stanley believes insurers are well placed to deliver strong returns in 2026. Reasons include resilient mid-to-high single-digit primary pricing in Australia and -10% to -20% declines in reinsurance costs.

QBE Insurance appears best positioned near term and may reset targets. Suncorp Group has multiple reinsurance options through midyear, while Insurance Australia Group offers stability but looks fully priced, in the broker's view.

The broker reiterated QBE has less direct margin upside from cheaper reinsurance and fewer capital levers, but its CAT cost management and stronger CAT budget aren’t fully recognised. At 10x FY26E P/E the broker believes the stock looks attractively valued.

The broker cut FY25 net profit forecast by -1% on higher borrowing costs but lifted FY27-28 by 1% on stronger yield expectations.

Target trimmed to $22.80 from $23.00. Overweight retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $22.80 Current Price is $19.93 Difference: $2.87
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.89, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto confirmed it is in early-stage discussions with Glencore around a potential merger, which could involve a combination of some or all businesses. An all-share transaction is a possibility, though no details on scope, price or structure have been disclosed, Macquarie notes.

The broker reckons the discussion is at odds with Rio’s recent “stronger, faster, simpler” strategy outlined at its December 2025 capital markets day. Under UK takeover rules, the company has until 5 February to announce a formal offer.

Rio outperformed BHP Group ((BHP)) by 10% since the broker revised its preference to Rio in early October, but now sees uncertainty around its valuation and investment case, even beyond the 5 Feb deadline.

The broker's large-cap preference is under review. Neutral retained with $130 target price.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $152.63 Difference: minus $22.63 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $134.42, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIG as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie's holiday period analysis of High Frequency Consumer Data Series showed signs of pressure in electronics from discounting and trading down. Online channels saw higher average basket sizes, raising concerns about online specialists diluting the Australian system.

In 4Q2025, pharmacy and furniture were the standout positives, with furniture showing a notable turnaround despite softer electronics growth.

Pharmacy continued to deliver low double-digit growth in line with recent trends, which bodes well for Sigma Healthcare, the broker highlights.

Underperform with an unchanged target of $2.90.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.02
If SIG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SLC as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans reviewed mobile and NBN pricing trends, and updated assumptions ahead of the February result season. NBN prices rose 6% y/y in 2025 as average speeds increased materially and the discounting period was short-lived.

While mobile plans are seeing temporary promotions in early 2026, the broker expects telco revenue growth to remain primarily price-driven, supported by higher pricing and ongoing cost reduction.

The broker updated forecasts for Superloop after increasing capex forecasts in line with the company's FY26 guidance at the November AGM. Frontier Network acquisition was also included.

Accumulate rating. Target cut to $3.00 from $3.60, after the broker removed the 20% premium to valuation previously applied for M&A optionality.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.48
If SLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -

After a period of cooling in 2025, Morgan Stanley believes insurers are well-placed to deliver strong returns in 2026. Reasons include resilient mid-to-high single-digit primary pricing in Australia and -10% to -20% declines in reinsurance costs.

QBE Insurance appears best positioned near term and may reset targets. Suncorp Group has multiple reinsurance options through midyear, while Insurance Australia Group offers stability but looks fully priced, in the broker's view.

Suncorp's weaker CAT budget is likely to weigh on 1H26 dividends, in the broker's view, but multiple reinsurance options could materially improve earnings quality, release capital, and drive a meaningful re-rating.

The broker trimmed FY25-28 net profit forecasts by -1% as stronger yield expectations was offset by lower premium growth and higher claims cost.

Target trimmed to $22.25 from $24.40 on earnings downgrades and lower weighting to the bull scenario. Overweight retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $22.25 Current Price is $17.29 Difference: $4.96
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.09, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Hold (3) -

Morgans reviewed mobile and NBN pricing trends, and updated assumptions ahead of the February result season. NBN prices rose 6% y/y in 2025 as average speeds increased materially and the discounting period was short-lived.

While mobile plans are seeing temporary promotions in early 2026, the broker expects telco revenue growth to remain primarily price-driven, supported by higher pricing and ongoing cost reduction.

Minor revisions made to Telstra Group's forecasts to largely factor in more-than-expected share buybacks in 1H26. Hold retained with unchanged target of $4.80.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.89, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TPG as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans reviewed mobile and NBN pricing trends, and updated assumptions ahead of the February result season. NBN prices rose 6% y/y in 2025 as average speeds increased materially and the discounting period was short-lived.

While mobile plans are seeing temporary promotions in early 2026, the broker expects telco revenue growth to remain primarily price-driven, supported by higher pricing and ongoing cost reduction.

The broker updated forecasts for TPG Telecom following completion of the capital reduction and reinvestment plan, reflecting a smaller-than-expected equity raise. The broker's updated model reflects a lower share count, higher interest expenses, and the divestment of handset receivables.

Accumulate rating. Target cut to $4.20 from $5.50.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.3
If TPG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.81, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources