Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett  has labeled AIC Mines' H1 release an "unsurprising" result with EBITDA in line with its forecast and net profit missing due to a tax expense. But the numbers are low.

The broker retains a positive view on the future of copper and on this basis sees "compelling value" in the present share price.

Ord Minnett points out the company has a sound balance sheet and makes only small adjustments to forecasts.

The Speculative Buy rating and 70c target are retained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.42
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners expects a similar second half for AIC Mines, which recorded a doubling of EBITDA to $24.7m in the first half and mine cash flow of $12.9m that compares with a negative -$14m.

The March quarter production target is 3-3200t copper with guidance maintained a 12,500t for FY24.

The broker assesses the copper market is set to experience a significant increase in demand over the next decade with 2024 shaping up to be a strong year for copper equities because of falling interest rates and an improving global economy.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $0.90 from $0.80.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.62
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 221% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Auckland International Airport reported a better-than-expected interim profit, 5.5% ahead of consensus and slightly beating Citi's forecast too, but management left FY24 guidance unchanged.

Citi explains management is worried about the pace of growth in H2. Citi, however, is undeterred and suspects there's upside potential to guidance.

While the property business continues to see strong growth, the broker adds some -NZ$7.6bn of capex spend over the next decade sets Auckland International up well to generate solid longer-term returns for shareholders.

Upgrade to Buy from Neutral. Target price increases to NZ$9.50 from NZ$9.03.

Current Price is $7.66. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.85, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

Auckland International Airport's first half result was slightly ahead of Macquarie. FY24 profit guidance is reaffirmed. This appears to have a degree of conservatism, the broker suggests, reflecting higher costs, macro headwinds impacting passenger volumes.

Passenger volumes continue to recover towards pre-covid levels, with pricing and non-aeronautical revenue opportunities providing appealing leverage, Macquarie notes.

Investors will now focus on regulatory outcomes, capex profile, the interest rate cycle, future liquidity events, and the performance of Air New Zealand ((AIZ)). Outperform and NZ$9.56 retained.

Current Price is $7.66. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.85, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AIA as Equal-weight (3) -

Auckland International Airport's 1H24 net profit beat Morgan Stanley and consensus forecasts by 6%.

Despite the recent fall in the share price and the reinstatement of a dividend (NZ$6.75cps), the broker anticipates a ho-hum reaction by the market to the results.

The company is viewed as having a strong balance sheet and costs were lifted by NZ$8.6m in flood related expenses.

Management reconfirmed FY24 net profit guidance of NZ$260m-NZ$280m against consensus of NZ$275m and Morgan Stanley's estimate of NZ$287m.

An Equal-weight is retained with a NZ$8.88 target price. Industry view is Cautious.

Current Price is $7.66. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.85, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIZ as Outperform (1) -

Air New Zealand's first half profit was down -38% year on year on softer demand and cost pressures, Macquarie notes. The second half outlook is tough due to impacts from engine issues.

On a combination of external factors (engine issues, fuel prices) and general airline volatility (competition, macro environment), Air NZ is seeing a perfect storm of headwinds. The broker still thinks the airline is well-positioned medium to long term, while near-term capital management will be a key driver.

The balance sheet remains strong and provides scope for capital management in coming years, Macquarie suggests, alongside ordinary dividends. Target falls to NZ77c from NZ87c, Outperform retained.

Current Price is $0.58. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure offered a trading update at the AGM, which Morgan Stanley notes proved in line with management's plans.

Gaming continues to further market share via the premium leased products (NFL in North America) and demand remains "firm". Core products are experiencing a "solid" performance.

Management guided to growing earnings in FY24 and pre-approvals to finalise the NeoGames deal are expected towards April end, allowing for a May closing.

Overweight rating retained with a $44.80 target price. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $44.80 Current Price is $43.84 Difference: $0.96
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.60, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APA as Neutral (3) -

APA Group's first half earnings were -3% below Macquarie on a softer generation performance, while FY24 guidance implies a -2% earnings downgrade. Management flagged costs will continue to rise in FY24 before stabilising in FY25.

The Australian Energy Regulator review adds at least six months of regulatory risk and uncertainty, the broker notes, and possibly two-three years.

The impact of lost Glencore volumes, plus the operational volatility caused by Dugald SF, have lowered Macquarie's base earnings expectations. A battery is needed to resolve the latter.

The broker expects the company's need to manage its balance sheet to limit dividend growth in FY25. APA is also in the middle of a transition towards renewable transmission which carries risk for investors.

Target falls to $8.90 from $8.94, Neutral retained.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $8.26 Difference: $0.64
If APA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.07, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APA as Hold (3) -

Following APA Group's 1H result, Morgans expects an around -1% downgrade to the consensus earnings (EBITDA) forecast. First-time FY24 guidance implies a 2H decline of -1-5% for earnings on a sequential half-year basis, explains the broker.

Underlying earnings increased by 6% in the 1H on the previous corresponding period, notes the analyst, supported by tariff escalation and contributions from acquisitions. Higher costs and lower variable revenues provided offsets.

Management reaffirmed FY24 dividend guidance of 56cps. 

The target falls to $7.48 from $7.56. Hold.

Target price is $7.48 Current Price is $8.26 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.07, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APA as Accumulate (2) -

In a "solid" outcome, but slightly adrift of Ord Minnett's forecast, APA Group's 1H underlying earnings (EBITDA) rose by 6% to $930m.

Management's FY24 earnings guidance represents growth of 10% on FY24, notes the analyst. An interim dividend of 26.5cps was declared and FY24 guidance for 56cps was maintained.

The Accumulate rating and $9.30 target are unchanged.

The broker highlights an attractive yield currently on offer, though cautions distribution growth will be truncated by both rising debt costs and the 2035 conclusion of the Wallumbilla Gladstone Pipeline contract.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.26 Difference: $1.04
If APA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.07, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APE as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

The 2023 results from Eagers Automotive were slightly ahead of Bell Potter's forecasts. No specific guidance was provided although the company expects revenue growth of around $1bn in 2024 that implies a figure around $11bn.

While modestly upgrading underlying operating pre-tax forecasts, the broker downgrades EPS estimates because of higher expected interest expense. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target reduced to $15.20 from $15.65.

Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $13.74 Difference: $1.46
If APE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.99, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APE as Neutral (3) -

Eagers Automotive has reported underlying profit slightly below Macquarie. Revenues were ahead, so margins are showing signs of normalisation as interest costs increased on higher inventory levels, the broker notes.

Elevated cancellations and vehicle substitution have driven order book declines. It would still take more than 12 months to clear the order bank, Macquarie notes, all things being equal, but it does raise questions over depth and quality.

The broker believes the declining order book, substitution for lower margin product and a potential softening in demand as the year progresses will result in 2024 being the year of margin normalisation.

Target falls to $14.00 from $14.60, Neutral retained.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $13.74 Difference: $0.26
If APE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.99, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APE as Overweight (1) -

Given Eagers Automotive's share price has taken a tumble off the back of what Morgan Stanley considered a decent result, the broker expects the market remains focused on the short term.

The broker expects the full year revenue guidance of more than $1bn appears light to investors, leaving the market to question if the elevated auto cycle is reaching an end. However, Morgan Stanley points out guidance is likely the bottom end of the company's internal range. 

Morgan Stanley has lifted its profit before tax forecasts 5-6% for 2024 and 2025, with higher revenue offset by higher interest. The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $16.50 form $16.00. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $13.74 Difference: $2.76
If APE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.99, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APE as Add (1) -

Following in-line FY23 results for Eagers Automotive, Morgans makes only minor forecast changes and the target eases to $15.90 from $15.95. Add.

The broker highlights the company was able to absorb a material increase in funding costs via great cost management. A sector-leading 4.4% return on sales metric (ROS) -which calculates how effeciently profits are generated from revenue- was also noted.

Management provided FY24 revenue growth guidance of around $1bn (up 10%) anchored by around $0.8bn from acquisitions, note the analysts. The 2H dividend was 50cps. 

Target price is $15.90 Current Price is $13.74 Difference: $2.16
If APE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.99, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APE as Buy (1) -

Eagers Automotive's 2H earnings (EBITDA) were a 4% beat against Ord Minnett's forecast, assisted by a 4.5% increase in return on sales (ROS) for the period.

The FY23 earnings margin of 5.5% compared with the broker's 5.3% estimate, which helped deliver a FY23 earnings beat of around 1%.

Management's FY24 guidance is for revenue growth of around $1bn, mainly deriving from recent acquisitions, which the analyst suggest may amount to $840m.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target slips to $16.00 from $16.20.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.74 Difference: $2.26
If APE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.99, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASG as Outperform (1) -

Autosports Group reported profit ahead of guidance and Macquarie. Better than expected revenue and margins were partially
offset by increased employee expenses.

Despite the first half revenue beat, the broker reduces second half revenue forecasts as management has guided to flat revenue year on year. The order book has started to decline.

Management nevertheless confirmed recent acquisitions are performing better than expected, and the company is targeting more acquisitons to provide growth optionality, with the balance sheet to do it.

Outperform and $3.10 target retained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.73
If ASG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.10, suggesting upside of 32.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BGA as Buy (1) -

First half operating earnings (EBITDA) from Bega Cheese were ahead of expectations. The company has retained normalised guidance of $160-170m and asserts it is on track to deliver more than $20m in annualised cost savings.

The broker upgrades net profit estimates by 13% for FY24 and 6% for FY25.

The share price may have recovered from its lows yet Bell Potter believes it trades at an unreasonably high discount to historical multiples and hence retains a Buy rating. Target is raised to $5.00 from $4.10.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: $0.99
If BGA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BGA as Hold (3) -

Morgans highlights a much better-than-expected 1H result for Bulk and a strong result for Branded, resulting in an overall result materially stronger than original guidance by Bega Cheese.

Sales increased by 3.2% in the 1H and underlying earnings (EBITDA) rose by 2.5%. The 1H benefited from a pull forward of sales across both Bulk and Branded, explain the analysts. Hence, management left FY24 earnings guidance unchanged.

A fully franked interim dividend of 4cps was declared.

The target rises to $4.35 from $3.48. Following a strong share price rally, the broker retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: $0.34
If BGA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BGA as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Following Bega Cheese's 1H results, Ord Minnett upgrades its rating to Hold from Lighten and increases its target to $3.70 from $3.00. Normalised earnings (EBITDA) rose by 3% to $76.5m compared to the analysts' forecast for $62.7m.

The broker notes the financial performance of the Branded segment improved, offset by Bulk which experienced soft market conditions. The outlook for Bulk is improving, according to the company, following a recent rally for commodity prices.

A fully franked interim dividend of 4.0cps was declared. FY24 guidance for normalised EBITDA of $160-170m was maintained.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If BGA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS has attended a Sydney roundtable with BHP Group executives which focused mainly on growth and optionality within the company's portfolio.

The key finding was that capacity-constrained infrastructure may be reducing BHP's output at Western Australia iron ore; and BHP blamed permitting, and cost and technology complexities for the delay on its final investment decision for a new concentrator at Escondida.

UBS considers the OD Deeps and Oak Dam in Copper South Australia to be prospective and expects a final decision on the smelter rebuild in FY25 or FY26. Plenty of permitting, engagement and power work streams are afoot for Oak Dam, Carrapateena and Prominent Hill. Smelter expansion will require optimisation and expansion of Olympic dam.

BHP expects nickel supply to continue to outpace solid nickel demand in 2024 and for Chinese steel production to exceed 1bn tonnes, with demand from non-property applications rising as property demand deteriorates.

Neutral rating and $44 target price retained.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $44.30 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.56, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Equal-weight (3) -

In assessing the upcoming changes to the WA onshore gas export ban, which are expected as soon as this quarter, Morgan Stanley considers there are upside risks to Beach Energy being in a position to expand exports of LNG.

Under the broker's assessment, the WA government is likely to announce changes to the WA onshore export ban in advance of the May state budget.

Morgan Stanley highlights two scenarios as most probable. The first under which the government maintains the export ban, resulting in a 10% lift in WA gas prices and Waitsia continues as planned, (8% EPS accretion and $1.87 target price).

The second scenario whereby the ban is retained, but new developments are allowed to increase domestic supply and Waitsia is held up for a further 6-months,  (-11% EPS decline and $1.68 target price).

The Equal-weight rating is retained with a $1.79  target price. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.79 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.055
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Upon initial assessment, UBS saw Brambles releasing a quality beat, and market consensus was even beaten by a higher magnitude. Management upgraded FY24 guidance (EBIT and free cash flow).

Among the observations made is lower lumber prices are finally flowing through with pooling capex to sales down 13.5%pt to 14.4%, including -US$90m pallet price deflation.

Brambles was earlier identified as the broker's preferred transport exposure on the ASX. The broker anticipates upgrades to consensus forecasts.

Buy. Target $16.55.

Target price is $16.55 Current Price is $15.18 Difference: $1.37
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.96, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates C79 as Buy (1) -

The first half EBITDA from Chrysos was broadly in line with Bell Potter's estimates while net profit missed because of a higher depreciation charge in net interest expense.

Guidance has been reiterated for 18 unit deployments, which implies a strong skew to the remaining four months of the financial year.

The broker assesses the company's disruptive technology will take a significant portion of the large gold assaying market and current lease agreements provide good visibility for the near term. Buy rating and $8.30 target retained.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $6.65 Difference: $1.65
If C79 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates C79 as Buy (1) -

First half results from Chrysos were slightly below forecasts with Shaw and Partners noting margins continue to improve as the business scales up.

No further delays around site readiness and contractor availability were noted and the broker believes this should provide confidence that the growth profile is robust.

The Buy, High Risk rating is reiterated with a target of $7.70.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $6.65 Difference: $1.05
If C79 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CHC as Accumulate (2) -

In the wake of 1H results for Charter Hall, Ord Minnett increases its target by 2% to $16.25, largely due to the time value of money.

Earnings fell by -19% compared to the previous corresponding period, mainly because of lower performance fees, explains the analyst.

Management stated there had been no fee compression to-date and highlighted operating margins improved in the half, if performance fees are excluded.

Ord Minnett maintains its Accumulate rating.

Target price is $16.25 Current Price is $12.02 Difference: $4.23
If CHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.41, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COF as Add (1) -

Centuria Office REIT reported 1H funds from operations of 7cpu, down from 8.1cpu in the previous corresponding period.

Morgans explains property income grew by 1.7% due to improved occupancy, which offset materially higher interest costs, higher property costs, as well as loss of income from divestments.

Gearing has risen to around 40% after revaluations at December 31, with further asset sales on the agenda, notes the analyst.

Management reiterated FY24 guidance for FFO of 13.8cpu and a dividend of 12cpu.

The broker's Add rating remains, but the target falls to $1.60 from $1.72 on assumed falls for the portfolio value.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.435
If COF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.38, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSR as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assigns a 75% probability of success for the non-binding indicative proposal made by French conglomerate Saint Gobain to acquire all of CSR's shares.

The offer of $9/share (cash and CSR dividend) implies a 32% premium to CSR's closing price on February 21.

The broker's target of $8.75 reflects the 75% odds, mentioned above, applied to the $9.00 bid price. Hold.

In the absence of a deal, the new analyst at Ord Minnett would assign an $8.00 target, up from $5.80 previously. This higher target is reflective of a brighter demand outlook and a higher assumed revenue compound annual growth rate of 4%, up from 2%.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $8.36 Difference: $0.39
If CSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.56, suggesting downside of -21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CTD as Buy (1) -

First half revenue and earnings were lower than Bell Potter anticipated. Corporate Travel Management's weak result stemmed from macro issues that affected its performance in the second quarter.

The broker notes negative travel sentiment relating to the conflict in the Middle East and American client budgets being fully utilised because of higher ticket prices.

The company has also acknowledged its UK bridging contract is materially underperforming because of immigration challenges and timing delays.

Bell Potter downgrades revenue forecasts by -11% and -10% for FY24 and FY25 and EBITDA by -18% and -19%, respectively. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $18.30 from $21.00.

Target price is $18.30 Current Price is $15.89 Difference: $2.41
If CTD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.77, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CTD as Neutral (3) -

Corporate Travel Management's first half earnings were -6% short of Macquarie, with FY24 guidance downgraded -15% at
the midpoint, which is -17% below the broker's prior estimate.

It was a soft result with underlying earnings in all segments below Macquarie's forecasts except in Europe, although the UK bridging contract is performing below expectations and is a headwind to FY24 guidance.

The broker did note its concerns back at the August result around low visibility, slowing momentum in A&NZ and North America, and the quality and duration of the UK government contract. This result has not alleviated those concerns.

Target falls to $16.90 from $20.40, Neutral retained.

Target price is $16.90 Current Price is $15.89 Difference: $1.01
If CTD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.77, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CUV as Buy (1) -

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals grew first half revenue by 10% although this was below Bell Potter's forecast. The broker suspects the lower revenue growth reflected a lower rate of new patients starts in the US as well as minimal growth in the more mature European market.

The outcome signals growth in Scenesse is tapering at a faster rate than previously assumed and as a result there are decreases to the broker's earnings forecasts. The company is still expected to generate EBIT margins of 50% in FY24 and FY25.

Buy rating unchanged. Target is reduced to $22.25 from $24.00.

Target price is $22.25 Current Price is $14.32 Difference: $7.93
If CUV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.75, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CUV as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

A combination of weak revenue growth, a large increase in the cost base and turnover at board level prompts Morgans to downgrade its rating for Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals to Hold from Add. The target is cut to $16 from $22.

Revenues of $32.3m in the 1H fell short of forecasts by the broker and consensus for $35m due to single-digit growth in the EU and low growth in the US.

A bigger surprise for the analysts was the 28% growth in expenses as employee costs and share-based payments (non cash) increased by 32% and 47%, respectively.

As a result of these disappointments, profit fell by -4% to $10.9m when the broker and consensus were expecting $14m and $13.9m, respectively.

As the cash balance at the end of the half was $175m, Morgans suggests some return to shareholders may be in prospect, but management didn’t discuss any capital management plans.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $14.32 Difference: $1.68
If CUV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.75, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ECF as Hold (3) -

Elanor Commercial Property Fund's funds from operations (FFO) of 5.3cpu in the 1H beat the 5.1cpu forecast by Ord Minnett due to a lower cost of debt.

A fall in FFO by -9.6% on the previous corresponding period, resulted from the rising borrowing cost partly offset by like-for-like rental income growth of 5.5%, explain the analysts.

Management's assumed payout ratio of circa 81% for FY24 implies an around 5% upgrade to FY24 FFO guidance, notes the broker.

FY24 dividend guidance is for 8.5pcu, in line with forecasts by Ord Minnett and consensus. Hold rating. Target 75c.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.03
If ECF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EQT as Buy (1) -

After noting in-line 1H results for EQT Holdings on an underlying basis, Ord Minnett highlights excellent revenue trends in the period. Underlying earnings (EBITDA) also rose by 31% on the previous corresponding period, after excluding losses from the UK and Ireland.

The broker points out the Superannuation business is experiencing a growth spurt, while the Australian Executor Trustees integration is delivering on synergies.

An interim dividend of 51cps was declared, just shy of the broker's 52.4cps forecast.

The target rises to $36 from $35. Buy.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $27.40 Difference: $8.6
If EQT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EXP as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett suggests Experience Co is poised for an acceleration in earnings over the coming years, and is cautiously optimistic the 1H of FY24 will represent a turning point.

Results for the period showed a loss of -$0.4m compared to the broker's -$1.1m forecast. The analyst highlights the Treetops business continues to provide important diversification for group earnings, helped by its reliance on local customers.

The broker notes the positive trends seen by management over the recent Chinese New Year period. It's felt history demonstrates a recovery for international travel from all major regions is inevitable.

The target rises to 34c from 32c. Buy.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.17
If EXP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Fineos Corp's December half result was below Macquarie forecasts, with revenue missing by -7.4% and gross profit -3.7%. The company has now swtiched to a December year-end, and 2024 revenue guidance implies a downgrade, the broker notes.

Cost reductions have been a focus, with opex down -11.3% year on year, R&D costs down -13.6% and sales & marketing down -43.5%.

Fineos continues to expect positive free cash flow in the June half 2024 and for the following 12 months in aggregate, and to be self-funding thereafter.

Target falls to $2.22 from $2.47, Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.22 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.62
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 86.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Sell (5) -

It is Citi's assessment Fortescue released a "strong" set of financials with its interim report. The 'beat' is in the magnitude of some 5%. The fully franked dividend jumped by 44% to A$1.08 on a 65% payout.

The broker holds on to the view the shares are too expensively priced, with forecasts only mildly moving higher. There was no change in management's FY24 guidance.

The Sell rating is retained while the target price increases to $24 from $23.00. Dividend forecasts have been slightly lowered.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $27.83 Difference: minus $3.83 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.33, suggesting downside of -24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

Fortescue Metals' first half result was solid, Macquarie suggests, with earnings and free cash flow above consensus. The interim dividend was a 4% beat, yielding 8% annualised.

Group volume, costs and capex guidance ranges are all unchanged, the broker notes, although Iron Bridge shipments were downgraded at the quarterly result.

Fortescue is trading on modest free cash flow yields (by its own standards) of 5-8%. With uncertainty over Future Industries capital, Macquarie retains Underperform and $18.50 target.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $27.83 Difference: minus $9.33 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.33, suggesting downside of -24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley views the 1H24 Fortescue earings result as broadly meeting expectations, although a $1.08 dividend per share was a beat against the forecast 99cps.

Higher revenues resulted in a 3% beat on EBITDA, but net profit was in line with the broker's forecast due to a higher depreciation charge.

Management retained FY24 guidance and net debt fell -6% compared to the analyst's expectations and -11% versus consensus.

Underweight rating with a $18.80 target price. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $18.80 Current Price is $27.83 Difference: minus $9.03 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.33, suggesting downside of -24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Sell (5) -

Fortescue's "clean" in-line December-half result appears to have pleased UBS thanks to record realised prices but the broker is unable to mount much excitement given the deteriorating iron ore outlook and the mooted rise in capital expenditure.

Management retained FY24 guidance, albeit narrowing iron shipment forecasts to the lower end of the expected range. Cost guidance was steady.

The company paid a $1.08 dividend, representing a payout of 65% of earnings.

In the energy business, Brazil and Norway are being fast-tracked and Pilbara decarbonisation capital expenditure remains within guidance with a second half skew, observes UBS.

UBS expects double-digit equity internal rates of return as more final investment decisions are struck, while the iron ore market is swinging on Chinese mill spreads.

Sell rating retained. Target price eases to $24.10 from $24.60.

Target price is $24.10 Current Price is $27.83 Difference: minus $3.73 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.33, suggesting downside of -24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GOZ as Buy (1) -

Nothing looked flash in Growthpoint Properties Australia's H1 update, but Citi suggests key metrics proved broadly in line (if not slightly better) with consensus and its own estimates.

The broker observes investors are incredibly cautious towards office assets and this translates into the shares trading at a -40% discount to Net Tangible Assets (NTA).

Combine the discount with a high dividend yield and the broker sees valuation support for the stock. Estimates have been slightly lowered, which cuts the broker's target to $2.60 from $2.70. Buy.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $0.32
If GOZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.97, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOZ as Outperform (1) -

Growthpoint Properties' funds from operations were 6% ahead of Macquarie's expectations, with the key driver being a (low quality) $4m surrender payment. This followed an agreement with a tenant for an early exit of space in South Australia.

With FY24 FFO guidance reaffirmed, after initially being set at the FY23 result, the broker believes there may be upside risk to guidance.

Growthpoint is making solid progress on expiry and vacancy in a difficult office leasing environment, Macquarie notes. Despite ongoing downside risk in office, the broker is attracted to the group's long office WALE at an 8.5% FY24 dividend yield.

Target falls to $2.50 from $2.82 to factor in incentives and push out income downside risk given no expiry in the first half 2024. Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $0.22
If GOZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.97, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HLS as Hold (3) -

It was a tale of two quarters in the 1H for Healius. Morgans explains Pathology volumes increased by 6.5% in the 1Q, but volume growth slowed materially in Q2, resulting in overall 1H growth of 4.2%

The broker attributes the 2Q weakness in volume to soft GP attendances, along with labour shortages and inflationary pressures, and notes management is aiming to accelerate Pathology restructuring to better align volumes with costs.

FY24 earnings (EBIT) guidance was downgraded to a range between $70-80m from $95-105m.

Morgans' target falls to $1.37 from $1.65. Hold.

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.66, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLS as Buy (1) -

While management at Healius downgraded FY24 earnings (EBIT) guidance by -25%, Ord Minnett keeps its long-term estimates broadly unchanged. It's thought the share price is undervalued compared to the broker's unchanged $3.00 target price.

The company explained industry growth had eased materially late in 2023 due to less attendance at GP practices, resulting in fewer pathology referrals.

Ord Minnett suggests the company's base businesses are well-place to service the current known underdiagnosis for routine healthcare services. Buy.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $1.625
If HLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 118% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.66, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HMC as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

HMC Capital's 1H operating earnings increased by 100% on the previous corresponding period due to a large increase in management fees, while investment income also rose strongly, explains Morgans.

Growth in the platform, particularly from unlisted funds and private equity, resulted in a return on equity (ROE) greater than 20%, observes the analyst.

Management guided to EPS of no less than 33cpu for FY24 and kept dividend guidance at 12cpu.

The target rises to $7.25 from $5.62 and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Add given HMC Capital's share price has increased by 45% over the past year.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $6.94 Difference: $0.31
If HMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.92, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HPG as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes revenue and costs were largely in line in the first half with hipages Group almost positive on free cash flow and the target for FY24 now well within reach.

The broker was encouraged by the progress on strategic initiatives such as Tradiecore and the NZ migration to subscription. While a re-rating of the stock has commenced, the broker reiterates a Buy rating amid plenty of upside potential. Target rises to $1.40 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.37
If HPG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Upon further analysis and reflection post Hub24's release of H1 financials, Citi has concluded EBITDA margin expansion is poised to resume in H2 FY24. Hiring of staff is skewed to H1 and revenue growth should now pick up.

Over the full year, the EBITDA margin is expected to be 'flat' against FY23, but Citi says FY24 is a year of investments for the platform operator.

The forecast three-year EPS CAGR of 29% is also underpinned by ongoing market share gains, says the broker. Citi has some concern whether investments made in Class and Tech Solutions will deliver adequate returns, but this doesn't stop the broker from reiterating its Buy rating.

Target price has gained an extra 60c to $42.80. The broker points out there remains a differential of some -19pp in platform margin vis a vis competitor Netwealth Group ((NWL)) with the gap to widen this year because of higher costs at Hub24.

Target price is $42.80 Current Price is $36.98 Difference: $5.82
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.54, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFL as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi had its suspicion and Insignia Financial truly delivered; a better-than-expected financial release to say goodbye to the CEO. There's an important detail: delayed platform margin squeeze is the key driver.

EPS estimate for FY24 moves 5% higher, but increases for subsequent years are only 1% because of the squeeze deferral. Citi finds the stocks looks inexpensive, but also thinks investors might need to be patient.

The arrival of a new CEO brings along its own set of uncertainties and risks. Citi downgrades to Sell from Neutral with a slight rise in price target; to $2.35 from $2.15 target.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Underweight (5) -

A better than expected first half result from Insignia Financial, says Morgan Stanley, partly on delayed platform repricing. Net profits exceeded the broker's expectations, and the company upgraded full year guidance.

The broker remains Underweight on the stock, noting the company has demonstrated no underlying earnings growth over the past four years, and Morgan Stanley does not anticipate earnings growth recovery until FY26.

The target price increases to $2.30 from $2.15. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IFL as Sell (5) -

UBS found Insignia Financial's H1 surprised positively as the Advice segment saw EBITDA increasing by $28m, but for other divisions Platforms and Asset Management earnings continued to decline.

Guidance for further increase in the group's EBITDA margin is all based on the Advice segment, the broker highlights. Cost reduction did not play a major role but is expected to contribute positively in the next 2-3 halves.

UBS remains concerned about the uncompetitive high cost ratio in combination with the weak outlook for funds flows. Hence, why estimates go up, and the target lifts to $2.20 from $2.05, the broker's rating remains Sell.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IGO as Buy (1) -

IGO's underlying EBITDA declined in the first half because of lower lithium and nickel prices. Underlying net profit was also below Bell Potter's forecasts.

Cost guidance at Greenbushes lithium mine has increased to $330-$380/t and the broker updates its forecast to match the mid point of this range. Forecast dividend payments for FY25 are also removed.

The broker assesses Greenbushes is highly leveraged to a recovery in lithium prices, given its scale and grade. Hold rating unchanged. Target is reduced to $7.50 from $7.80.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: $0.18
If IGO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

IGO reported underlying earnings in line with Macquarie. Reported proft was impacted by an impairment charge against Cosmos and Forrestania.

The dividend was in line with consensus but -35% lower than Macquarie as the broker had forecast a payout ratio of 40%, at the top end of guidance.

Due to the troublesome ramp-up of Kwinana and management's hesitation to provide guidance, Macquarie revises Kwinana estimates to take into account the ramp-up issues, but the broker believes this is already priced in.

Target falls to $8.60 from $9.20, Outperform retained.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: $1.28
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Equal-weight (3) -

IGO reported 1H24 results with capital expenditure -13% lower than Morgan Stanley's expectations and -18% below consensus.

The broker assesses  higher capital expenditure  in the 2H24 and management also lifted the production cost guidance for FY24 to $330-$380/t from $280-$330/t, which is higher than consensus and Morgan Stanley's forecasts.

An 11cps dividend was a beat but met the market's expectations and net profit was 7% better due to lower depreciation charges, notes the broker.

There was another -$171.8m impairment against the Cosmos and Forrestania assets, formerly owned by Western Areas.

Equal-weight rating and $7.25 target are unchanged: Attractive.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

IGO's largely pre-reported December-half result met UBS forecasts, including the well publicised $172m impairment on ex-Western Areas assets.

The only update was a 15% increase to Greenbushes FY24 costs and the broker remains unconvinced growth at Greenbushes will surface any time soon.

The broker cuts EPS forecasts -2% in FY24; -13% in FY25; and -5% in FY26 accordingly.

UBS expects lithium markets to remain oversupplied for the near term so models no distributions from TLEA to IGO in the near term.

Neutral rating and $7.50 target price. This compares with an $8.30 target price on February 1.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: $0.18
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Despite re-stocking potential, Macquarie highlights that a persistently weak Chinese property market presents a key risk for zircon demand in 2024-25.

Iluka Resources' capex estimates for the Eneabba phase 3 rare-earths project have increased again, while funding discussions with the government are underway.

Given project funding and execution risks at Eneabba phase 3, and on valuation, Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $7.60 from $8.90.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $0.03
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.71, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Accumulate (2) -

Iluka Resources' 2023 EBITDA sank by -30% but that was still 17% better-than-expected. Ord Minnett explains lower sales volumes and higher unit costs were partially offset via a weaker AUD, with prices stable.

As the mineral sands business generated negative free cash flow, shareholders only received in dividend what the company received from its 20% stake in Deterra Royalties ((DRR)).

The company is slowing sales and building inventory to manage the cycle and Ord Minnett points at the strong balance sheet that should provide confidence Iluka Resources can successfully ride out the cyclical downturn.

Estimates have been lowered. Fair value estimate remains $9.50. Accumulate.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $1.93
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.71, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPH as Outperform (1) -

IPH's profit was in line with Macquarie. Group earnings performance was supported by A&NZ returning to growth and M&A in Canada, offset by market decline in Asia. The broker suggests the Asian performance was "disappointing".

IPH still trades at a material discount to its average at a two-year forward PE of 14x versus 19x historically, Macquarie notes. Easier second half comparables across Australia and Hong Kong/China, along with the Canadian pipeline, should provide support.

Target falls to $9.60 from $10.60, Outperform retained.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $6.93 Difference: $2.67
If IPH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting upside of 33.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPH as Overweight (1) -

IPH reported a 21% lift in revenue and 5% increase in net profit for 1H24, which was broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations.

The results offered a mixed picture, with strong organic growth for Australia and New Zealand since the 1H20, whereas US clients impacted adversely on Asia growth.

A 16cps dividend met forecasts and no guidance was offered, however, management is looking for market share expansion domestically, integration of Canadian acquisitions and a return to growth in Asia over FY24.

Target is $9.50. Overweight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $6.93 Difference: $2.57
If IPH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting upside of 33.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPH as Add (1) -

IPH's 1H result was only just shy of Morgans forecasts. Earnings from Asia were weaker than the broker's already weak expectation, while Australian earnings exhibited some improvement, growing by 1% on the previous corresponding period.

An Interim dividend of 16cps was declared.

The target falls to $8.05 from $8.15. The Add-rated broker sees valuation support in the near-term and anticipates longer-term upside from both acquisitions and management executing upon strategy. The key catalyst is a return of organic growth, suggest the analysts.

Target price is $8.05 Current Price is $6.93 Difference: $1.12
If IPH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting upside of 33.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPH as Buy (1) -

IPH Ltd's H1 report positively surprised on multiple metrics, operational cash flows in particular, but equally showed multiple disappointments, including soft revenues from the Asian region as one large client in China exited while the market in Singapore proved weaker generally.

UBS sees IPH's market share stabilising in A&NZ and this should facilitate further growth. Positive organic growth would increase investor confidence, though the broker itself prefers to remain cautious.

Only minimal changes have been made to forecasts. Valuation drops to $8.50 from $9. Buy.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $6.93 Difference: $1.57
If IPH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting upside of 33.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates IRE as Hold (3) -

Iress has upgraded guidance for 2024, to adjusted EBITDA of $117-127m, implying growth of 15% at the mid point.

Shaw and Partners notes revenue growth is stabilising and cost reductions are progressing yet, with 2023 adjusted EBITDA below forecasts, would like further evidence of top-line growth before taking a more positive view on the stock.

While pleased with the steps management is taking to rationalise the business, Shaw and Partners concedes this is not something that can be fixed quickly. Hold maintained. Target is raised to $8.30 from $7.70.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: $0.16
If IRE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.76, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LIC as Hold (3) -

Lagging settlements caused Lifestyle Communities' H1 performance to miss Ord Minnett's forecasts. Further surprise came through an unexpected $275m entitlement offer.

The broker suggests elevated debt and delayed settlements triggered the capital raise, with Lifestyle Communities restricted in its ability to pursue additional land acquisition opportunities.

The broker talks about a "necessary evil" to protect future growth.

The combination of a disappointing H1 and capital raise has pushed back the price target by -9.6% to $16.90. Hold.

Target price is $16.90 Current Price is $17.33 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If LIC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.33, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Elsewhere conclusions are being drawn the Lovisa Holdings share price is looking bloated in the short term, but not at Citi. The broker counters the retailer has just released another strong result and there is further upside short term.

Gross margin and like-for-like sales represent that upside potential. Ongoing store rollout should secure long term upside. Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

The broker suggests the CEO has done an "exceptional job" turning Lovisa into a global retailer.

Current Price is $27.30. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $26.08, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LOV as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley acknowledges a first half beat from Lovisa Holdings, with the company reporting sales growth of 18% year-on-year to $373m and earnings growth of 16% year-on-year to $81.6m. In the first seven weeks of the second half, the retailer has reported 19.6% sales growth.

For Morgan Stanley, comps growth acceleration was the key highlight of the result, rebounding to -4.4% over the half from -6.2% over the first twenty weeks. According to the broker, this suggests a healthy store base, set for growth, and should provide confidence in the roll out.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $32.50 from $24.50. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $27.30 Difference: $5.2
If LOV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.08, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LOV as Add (1) -

Earnings (EBIT) in the 1H for Lovisa Holdings exceeded Morgans forecast by 4% while sales and the store count of 854 were in line with forecasts.

Overall, the result beat the broker's expectations mainly due to strong gross margins, which were supported by favourable changes to  pricing.

The gross margin increased by 40bps to 80.7%, 170 bps higher than forecast by the analysts, largely due to pricing though more favourable freight costs assisted.

An interim dividend of 50cps was declared.

The target rises to $30 from $27.50. Add. The broker notes Lovisa has operations in over 40 markets and substantial potential to expand in almost all of them.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.30 Difference: $2.7
If LOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.08, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LOV as Neutral (3) -

As it turned out, Lovisa Holdings' interim performance was made up of 'beats' and 'misses' and commentary from UBS balances the two against each other.

A better gross margin meant the EBITDA surprised positively, but D&A and net interest pushed the net profit below expectations. Like-for-like sales are improving, but net store openings are slowing.

Lovisa did enter the Irish market in the period.

A better gross margin would bode well for future growth but UBS emphasises a decline in long term incentive (LTI) poses risk for costs and EBITDA margin expansion.

The broker's valuation has risen to $27 (from $24). Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $27.30 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.08, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MAF as Add (1) -

MA Financial's FY23 profit missed the consensus forecast by -12% largely due to higher-than-expected costs, explains Morgans.

Earnings upside is more likely in FY25, suggests the broker, given the current difficult operating environment and a repeat of FY23’s higher investment spending in FY24.

The performances of the Asset Management (AM) and Corporate Advisory and Equities (CA&E) divisions were weaker than the analyst anticipated.

AM was impacted by a -$44m decline in performance fees against a strong previous corresponding period, while CA&E advisory fees fell by -24% due to the difficult macro backdrop, explains the analyst.

The 2H dividend of 14cps beat the 10cps forecast by consensus.

The broker’s target slips to $6.07 from $6.25 on lower earnings estimates, partly offset by a valuation roll-forward. The Add rating is maintained due to solid medium-term value.

Target price is $6.07 Current Price is $4.47 Difference: $1.6
If MAF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.56, suggesting upside of 47.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MIN as Buy (1) -

First half results from Mineral Resources were mixed with underlying EBITDA ahead and net profit below Bell Potter's forecasts.

The company has reduced Wodgina's battery chemical production to 18-23,000t and will not ramp up spodumene production from train 3 in the third quarter as planned, given weak lithium prices.

First product from the Onslow iron project is expected to be shipped in the second half and the start of operations should decrease net debt, with the project becoming a cornerstone value driver, in Bell Potter's opinion. Buy rating and $75 target maintained.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $60.90 Difference: $14.1
If MIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.79, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Mineral Resources' result featured a beat on Macquarie's forecasts for all of profit, revenues, earnings and free cash flow.

While FY24 guidance remained largely intact, management's decision to suspend the ramp up of Wodgina Train 3 takes -250kt spodumene concentrate out of the market, the broker notes.

Earnings were solid, Macquarie suggests, as Mineral Resources enters a capex peak over the next six months. With careful cost and balance sheet management to navigate lower lithium prices, the company should benefit from production and earnings growth on the other side.

Outperform and $75 target retained.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $60.90 Difference: $14.1
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.79, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Equal-weight (3) -

While Mineral Resources has recently sold off its Azure Minerals ((AZS)) stake, Morgan Stanley estimates the company's growth plans could require further capital of $575m, meaning the sale of part of the company's Onslow Iron infrastructure is key.

The broker values the Onslow Iron infrastructure at $2.3bn, and Morgan Stanley points out a 49% sale could derive proceeds of $1.12bn and meet capital needs requirements. The broker sees the balance sheet as stretched until this sale is enacted.

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $62.50 are retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $62.50 Current Price is $60.90 Difference: $1.6
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.79, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MIN as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a "solid" 1H result for Mineral Resources (just ahead of expectations) partly due to higher-than-expected revenue across iron ore and mining services.

Underlying earnings were a beat against forecasts by consensus and the analysts of 2% and 10%, respectively. Profit also beat consensus by 4%, despite a -49% year-on-year fall largely due to a circa -85% decline in lithium prices.

The interim dividend of 20cps fell short of the 27c forecast by consensus, as management reduced the payout ratio to preserve the balance sheet, explains Morgans. FY24 group capex guidance was increased to -$3,228m from -$2,750m.

The broker's target falls to $71 from $72. Add.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $60.90 Difference: $10.1
If MIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.79, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Medibank Private shares sold off following the release of the first half result, with the half missing market expectations. Citi, however, found the result in line, despite the impacts of rising private health insurance costs.

The broker notes Medibank Private had 5,400 new resident policyholders in the half as end of October, but this number reduced to 3,400 by end of December, implying a loss of -1,800 customers in the two months, attributed to irrational competitor behaviour and price discounting.

The company's full year policyholder growth guidance suggests more than 20,000 new policyholders in the second half, or 1.2-1.5% growth, suggesting it has experienced growth at this level in the past.

The Neutral rating and target price of $3.80 are retained.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.15
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie does not quantify Medibank Private's result other than to suggest FY24 claims inflation expectations have improved but this will be transitory. Expenses and policyholder growth expectations were both downgraded.

Cyber costs will extend into FY25, albeit at a declining rate.

With current valuations appearing fair, Macquarie awaits the next few data points of Medicare claims inflation to judge the pace of the claims catch-up.

Target falls to $3.60 from $3.65, Neutral retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MPL as Hold (3) -

Medibank Private posted first half income growth of 4% with average premiums up 1.7%, policyholder growth of 0.6% and claims per policyholder up 1%.

Ord Minnett observes the shares fell on the result, likely stemming from soft policyholder growth, now trading in line with valuation.

The broker notes the company continues to improve its value proposition by expanding providers and procedures where members pay no gap and this should help differentiate its offering and lift customer satisfaction. Hold retained. Target is $3.60, up from $3.50.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MPL as Buy (1) -

Medibank Private's interim achievement fell short of expectations, also due to higher cost growth, but UBS looks through to a better H2 and on that basis retains its Buy rating.

Claims inflation is rising but remains below pre-covid levels, highlights the broker. UBS is forecasting private health insurance margins remain higher for longer at above 8% during FY24-26.

Adopting a positive view, UBS has only reduced its FY24 EPS forecast. Target loses -10c to $4.20.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.55
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MRM as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes the first half result from MMA Offshore was strong and EBITDA was ahead of estimates as well as guidance.

Based on a significant margin expansion, evident in the results, the broker reduces revenue forecasts by -7% for FY24 and FY25 while making substantial upgrades to EBITDA forecast.

This drives an increase in EPS estimates of 13% and 8% in FY24 and FY25, respectively. Buy rating retained, as Bell Potter asserts the result demonstrates the beneficial macro economic conditions the company is currently experiencing. Target is raised to $2.70 from $2.55.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.74
If MRM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MRM as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners found the first half result from MMA Offshore "solid" with better output pricing. Cash from operations was 30% ahead of the broker's projections. Management has signalled the second half to be similar.

Demand in vessel services remains strong with utilisation up to 83% from 80%. The EBITDA margin in subsea services was 16% and the broker factors in sustained higher margins for this segment.

Shaw and Partners upgrades FY24 EBITDA estimates by 9.4% and retains a Buy rating. Target rises to $2.45 from $2.30.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.49
If MRM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MSV as Speculative Buy (1) -

First half financials for Mitchell Services were all in line with quarterly reporting and Morgans observes there was only limited new information to be garnered from either the finer details or management’s outlook commentary.

The 2cps interim dividend was at the upper-end of guidance.

Consistent with industry views, according to the broker, management sees key input costs such as labour and consumables only plateauing rather than easing.

The Speculative Buy rating and 56c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.175
If MSV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEC as Neutral (3) -

Nine Entertainment's December-half result met Macquarie's forecasts but guidance disappointed, a trading update suggesting a deterioration in FTA markets.

On the upside, Stan managed to shrug off rising comps and cost of living pressures, holding on to subscribers while cutting costs.

Management advised M&A remains on the table but is narrowing its sights to one or two strategic investments.

EPS forecasts fall -15% in FY24; -17% in FY25; and -13% in FY26 to reflect deteriorating TV markets and higher interest costs.

Neutral rating retained, the broker believing the bottom is 6-12 months away. Target price falls -20% to $1.59 from $1.99. 

Target price is $1.59 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If NEC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NEC as Overweight (1) -

The first half result from Nine Entertainment was not as bad as Morgan Stanley feared, while the second half outlook for TV advertising revenues remains poor.

The broker considers the business has the best combined portfolio of traditional and digital media assets but in order to create value other assets need to grow faster to offset the decline in free-to-air TV advertising.

The Overweight rating is maintained. Target is $2.30. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.62
If NEC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett observes, while cyclical factors were largely to blame for the -15% fall in Nine Entertainment's first half normalised earnings, the weakness persisting in TV is too great to ignore.

First half total TV earnings overwhelmed what is considered a "commendable" audience/revenue share performance and efficiency gains.

A reduction in total TV forecasts is mostly alleviated by the performances of the company's other divisions, the broker asserts, therein providing diversified appeal. Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating, reducing the target by -4% to $2.70.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $1.02
If NEC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEC as Buy (1) -

Nine Entertainment's H1 performance was "solid" in the view of UBS, but management provided cautious outlook statement as the macro picture remains the media company's key challenge, says the broker.

UBS does find it but prudent to remain cautious, and lowers estimates. In addition, forecasts no longer include a potential Meta content deal renewal, with an additional -$10m impact.

Dividend estimate lowered to 8c from 10c for FY24.

As market conditions will improve, at some point, UBS remains confident the shares will re-rate. On that basis, Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $2.04 from $2.18.

Target price is $2.04 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.36
If NEC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NGI as Outperform (1) -

Navigator Global Investments' December-half earnings (EBITDA) outpaced Macquarie's forecasts by 32% thanks to a more than doubling in distributions from NGI Strategic portfolio. Management guided to a stronger June half pending the timing of receipts.

Lighthouse Management fees rose 15%; operating expenditure proved a miss; and assets under management rose 16%.

The company upped its Revolver finance to US$100m.

EPS forecasts rise 6.7% for FY24; fall -9.8% in FY25; and fall -7.2%.

Outperform rating retained. Target price eases to $1.55 from $1.62 to reflect an updated FX deck.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.185
If NGI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

First half results from Navigator Global Investments beat Ord Minnett's forecasts at the EBITDA line. Lighthouse generated over US$6m in performance fees, and higher base management fees compared with expectations.

The broker was pleased with the additional information regarding the strategic portfolio which supports its Buy thesis on the stock. These include sources of assets growth and fee income. Target edges down to $1.85 from $1.90.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.485
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star Resources' messy December-half result broadly met Macquarie's forecasts, underlying earnings (EBITDA) in line, while net cash fell shy due to the affect of negative currency movements on US$ bonds, leading to a net profit after tax miss of -8% (also due to a D&A miss and M&A costs).

Management retained sales, production and growth capital guidance and the company posted a record interim dividend.

The company closed the half with net cash of $79m, compared to a forecast $88m. FY24 EPS forecasts fall -2% and are steady thereafter.

Outperform rating and $16 target price retained, the broker spying potential improved productivity tailwinds relative to peers as WA's labour dynamics improve. 

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.06 Difference: $2.94
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.60, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

Northern Star Resources posted first half underlying EBITDA that was ahead of Morgan Stanley's expectations.

FY24 guidance is unchanged although the company acknowledges the potential challenges of higher gold royalties and fuel costs along with a weaker Australian dollar.

Equal-weight. Target is $12. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $13.06 Difference: minus $1.06 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.60, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Accumulate (2) -

First half results were largely in line and, going into the second half, Ord Minnett envisages Northern Star Resources' EBITDA margins will improve, as the Golden Pike contribution allows KCGM production to increase 16%.

The proposed capital expenditure should be supported by "comfortable contingencies" and the strong balance sheet. Ord Minnett prefers Northern Star to its large-cap peers, as it screens more attractively on several metrics. Accumulate rating and $13.90 target.

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $13.06 Difference: $0.84
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.60, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Northern Star Resources met 1H24 net profit expectations of $211m, and declared a robust 15cps dividend, UBS comments.

Management retained FY24 guidance, after selling 781koz in the 1H24 the company should manage the FY24 forecast of 1.6-1.7moz.

However, the broker considers the all in cost guidance of $1739-$1790/oz as overly upbeat and it expects most miners to continue to struggle to retain cost pressures.

As per UBS, second half improvements rely on higher volumes and grade at KCGM, ongoing ramp up of Thunderbox and better volumes and grades at Pogo.

A Neutral rating is retained and the target raised to $13.10 from $11.95.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $13.06 Difference: $0.04
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.60, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OCL as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett observes gross margins for Objective Corp stopped declining during the first half, countering a five-year trend. The broker considers this a good leading indicator for strength in software companies.

The company reported 71% growth in EBITDA and 53% growth in net profit after tax. The broker considers the shares materially overvalued at current prices and retains a Sell rating. Target is $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $11.70 Difference: minus $6.2 (current price is over target).
If OCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.09, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates OCL as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners found the first half result from Objective Corp better than expected with annual recurring revenue growth of 10%, albeit below the 15% target because of "typical seasonality".

The main highlight was operating leverage and this gives the broker confidence that, as revenue accelerates, consistent leverage will be the result. Shaw and Partners reiterates a Buy rating and raises the target to $14.40 from $14.20.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $11.70 Difference: $2.7
If OCL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.09, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Overweight (1) -

Orica has announced the acquisition of US sodium cyanide producer Cyanko for -US$640m.

Morgan Stanley observes the acquisition is in line with strategy and at a reasonable price, underpinning the company as a global leader in explosives and sodium cyanide, industries with attractive structures and outlook.

The transaction is to be funded by a mix of debt and a $400m institutional equity placement. The broker reiterates an Overweight rating with a $19 target. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $16.99 Difference: $2.01
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.94, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORI as Hold (3) -

Orica will acquire US sodium cyanide manufacturer Cyanco in accordance with its strategy to grow beyond blasting. Ord Minnett observes this more than doubles the company's existing sodium cyanide production capacity to around 240,000t per year, or around 20% of global demand.

The -US$640m price tag is not considered "huge" in the context of the company's enterprise value and the broker points out things would have to go "horribly wrong" for any negative implications to materialise. Hold rating and $16.50 target maintained.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $16.99 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.94, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PLS as Hold (3) -

First half underlying earnings from Pilbara Minerals were lower than expected, largely because of higher-than-expected corporate and exploration costs.

Bell Potter observes spot lithium index prices signal a materially weaker second half but supply chain restocking should lead to improved pricing and market sentiment throughout FY25.

The broker finds the stock a clean exposure to global lithium fundamentals and, being a low-cost producer, it can sustain weaker lithium prices and support expansion programs. Hold retained. Targets reduced to $3.55 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Higher general and administrative costs in the first half saw Pilbara Minerals deliver a result that missed the mark for Citi at the earnings line. Costs are now annualising at $60m, and the company warns this number should be the expected cost moving forward.

The broker models spodumene concentrate at US$955 per tonne in the second half, implying a -$540m free cash flow burn from Pilbara Minerals in the period, but the broker notes its coverage sector-wide (excluding IGO ((IGO))) looks to be free cash flow negative.

The Neutral rating and target price of $3.60 are retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Pilbara Minerals' December-half result missed consensus and Macquarie's forecasts, as higher production costs led to a -9% earnings (EBITDA) miss.

Capital expenditure proved a slight beat, reducing the free cash outflow miss to -6%. Revenue was -1% shy of consensus.

Macquarie observes the company is pursuing organic production growth as peers are slowing production, a strategy it is able to adopt given it has 100% control and a strong balance sheet.

The broker expects the company could maintain a cash balance above $1.3bn over the next 18 months, with the cash outflow faster in the near to medium term.

EPs forecasts fall -7% in FY24; and -1% in FY25 and -4% for FY26, the latter reflecting changes to finance cost assumption.