Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts, freshly returned from a visit to Shenzen, China remain concerned about lofty market expectations for FY19 while inventories for English labeled infant formula products remain too high for comfort.

Apart from the above, underlying it appears sales are continuing at a solid pace and the outlook remains for a strong performance, but will excess inventories in Australia disturb this prime growth story over the next six months?

Citi analysts are not prepared to take the risk, sticking with their Sell rating. Target price $9.50.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $9.57 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.25, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

FY18 net profit was ahead of expectations. However the mid point of FY19 guidance for net profit of $970m to $1.07bn is lower than Credit Suisse expected. For the first time, in the broker's recollection, AGL has indicated it expects realised wholesale prices to decline, based on the fall in the forward curve.

Despite the near-term challenges, the broker notes consumer margins are below long-term sustainable levels. Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $20.60 from $22.90.

Target price is $20.60 Current Price is $20.84 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.85, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates AGL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

AGL reported FY18 results that were better than Deutsche Bank expected. Strong wholesale earnings more than offset a significant fall in customer returns and higher costs. The broker downgrades to Hold from Buy and reduces the target to $22.25 from $25.45.

The outlook is for flat earnings for at least FY19 and the broker lowers forecasts accordingly, noting wholesale electricity prices are falling and energy retailing and regulatory headwinds continue to confront the company.

Target price is $22.25 Current Price is $20.84 Difference: $1.41
If AGL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.85, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes AGL's earnings will peak in FY19, which drives a downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight. The main policy catalysts are the National Energy Guarantee, the ACCC recommendations and potential direct intervention with respect to Liddell power station.

AGL has the highest earnings exposure to policy changes in the broker's coverage but the risks are considered manageable. Morgan Stanley reduces the target to $19.44 from $22.88. Industry view: Cautious.

The company has guided to a flat result in FY19 and Morgan Stanley suspects there is significant downside revision possible to FY20 and FY21 estimates.

Target price is $19.44 Current Price is $20.84 Difference: minus $1.4 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.85, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Accumulate (2) -

FY18 results were ahead of Ord Minnett estimates. The result was overshadowed by soft FY19 guidance, the broker notes. Management has indicated that intense competition is likely to mean retail margins contract while the contribution from wholesale is peaking.

While this could lead to speculation that earnings will decline materially, the broker believes wholesale prices will need to be elevated for new generation capacity to be built. Accumulate maintained. Target is reduced to $23.40 from $24.50.

Target price is $23.40 Current Price is $20.84 Difference: $2.56
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.85, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AGL as Buy (1) -

FY18 results were slightly ahead of UBS estimates. FY19 net profit guidance at the mid point suggests there will be no earnings growth over the next 12 months despite cost reduction initiatives.

UBS attributes the share price weakness to continued concerns about the outlook for electricity prices, retail competition and regulatory uncertainty. The broker considers the stock oversold and retains a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $23.00 from $27.50.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $20.84 Difference: $2.16
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.85, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMP as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

AMP reported in line with recent guidance. Cost controls in the half were the big positive, Morgans notes, yet management has not altered prior full-year cost guidance, suggesting conservatism.

That said, Morgans believes that despite its de-rating, lingering pressures remain on wealth management and wealth protection with regard funds outflow risk and whatever the Royal Commission might yet do. The broker had not yet updated forecasts for the May profit warning so a -54% downgrade to 2018 earnings follows.

Target falls to $3.88 from $4.56. Downgrade to Hold from Add.

Target price is $3.88 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.43
If AMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AQZ as Outperform (1) -

FY18 results revealed a continuation of the trend seen in the first half, with revenue up 23% and total flight hours up 34%. Revenue was broadly in line with forecasts. Credit Suisse makes positive earnings revisions, with a material boost expected to FY20 as fleet additions annualise.

The broker considers the valuation undemanding and maintains an Outperform rating. Target is raised to $2.45 from $2.20.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.2
If AQZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAL as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts have just returned from a visit to Shenzen, China and found further confirmation that Bellamys', upon receiving CFDA registration, should have the ability to lift prices with present market situation placing competing products at a sizable premium.

In addition, the analysts remain of the view the stock offers compelling value. Forecast EPS growth is 50% in FY19. CFDA registration, which should occur before the end of the current calendar year, could provide the positive catalyst to get the share price moving, suggest the analysts. Buy. Price target $19.70.

Target price is $19.70 Current Price is $9.87 Difference: $9.83
If BAL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie considers the divestment of the shale assets a major positive and expects a relatively benign earnings result when the company reports on August 21. The shale divestment is expected to boost free cash flow yields to 18% in FY19.

The broker continues to forecast BHP's unadjusted iron ore cash costs will trail those of its large Western Australian rivals. Outperform retained. Target is $41.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $33.95 Difference: $7.05
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.92, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates BSL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Deutsche Bank increases 2018 steel price estimates for east Asia and the US midwest. The uplift is likely to be short term and the broker expects steel spreads to decline from here on.

While recognising this is the high point in the cycle, the broker also believes there is additional risk to earnings given the enterprise agreement that is currently being re-negotiated. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target is raised to $18 from $17.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $18.10 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.60, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

The company's net debt position at the end of FY18 was better than Credit Suisse expected. A large part of the miss in estimates was that the broker assumed Crown would pay out $365m on an ATO assessment.

The main gaming and non-gaming floors matched the broker's forecasts in Melbourne and Perth. Neutral retained. Target is $13.10.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $14.38 Difference: minus $1.28 (current price is over target).
If CWN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.61, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

FY18 results were ahead of Macquarie's estimates, driven by strong VIP volumes which offset a soft domestic result in Australian casinos. The broker considers the stock fairly priced while trading on a 23x FY19 PE, which is at a 30% premium to Star Entertainment ((SGP)).

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and increases the target to $14.10 from $13.55. EPS estimates are lifted by 2% for FY19.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $14.38 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If CWN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.61, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CWN as Equal-weight (3) -

VIP growth of 110% in the second half surprised Morgan Stanley to the upside and made up for what is considered a relatively lacklustre 2.3% increase in domestic main floor gaming revenue.

Going forward, the broker forecasts VIP turnover growth to slow to 13% as it cycle strong comparables. The share buyback should also provide support. However, the broker suggests investors should not be fooled by the solid growth in EPS as capitalised interest and lower D&A from Barangaroo creates distortion.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating, Cautious industry view and raises the target to $13.50 from $13.00.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $14.38 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If CWN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.61, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CWN as Hold (3) -

FY18 net profit was ahead of Ord Minnett forecasts. The broker notes Australian VIP turnover is recovering rapidly and management is focused on regaining VIP customers for Barangaroo, albeit with an impact on operating margins.

Still, the broker remains hesitant because of a lack of valuation support at current share price levels. Hold maintained. Target is raised to $13.70 from $13.50.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $14.38 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If CWN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.61, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

Net profit in FY18 was ahead of UBS estimates. Nevertheless, the quality of the beat was poor as it was mainly driven by lower depreciation & interest and stronger-than-expected VIP turnover, which is low margin and can be volatile.

The simplified business structure now reduces the number of unknowns and, as a result, the broker finds the visibility regarding earnings has improved. Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $13.60 from $12.40.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $14.38 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If CWN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.61, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FLT as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

The share price has been on strong uptrend with Citi analysts referencing a positive turn in the industry's cycle with oil prices having increased by circa 40% over the past 12 months; this is driving up airfares, helping revenue growth for travel agents such as Flight Centre.

However, the immediate outlook will be all about cost out, say analysts at Citi, and with the share price already factoring in material upside, they have decided to downgrade to Sell from Neutral.

Target price rises a further 9% to $59, but remains well short of where the share price is trading. Forecasts have been lifted by 3-4%.

Target price is $59.00 Current Price is $65.57 Difference: minus $6.57 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $57.69, suggesting downside of -12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FNP as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts returned with increased optimism from a trip to Shenzen, China, where they observed Freedom Foods' AO Kid's Milk presence is increasing in imported supermarkets.

Citi suggests the product is well placed given the high propensity of Chinese families to purchase child-specific dairy products. But their Buy rating remains supported by anticipated firm margin expansion in FY19, and further new product launches.

The stock continues to trade at a discount vis-a-vis peers, say the analysts. Target $6.90.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $5.94 Difference: $0.96
If FNP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MFG as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Following a 20% run up in the share price over several months the stock has re-rated from historical PE lows. Hence, Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

The broker also has some concerns over fee margins in the medium term, given a recent decision to introduce a new class for the High Conviction fund with a lower management fee. FY18 results were slightly ahead of estimates. The broker raises the target to $29 from $28.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.21 Difference: $1.79
If MFG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.61, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Outperform (1) -

FY18 results were ahead of estimates and Macquarie suspects the revised dividend pay-out ratio could drive a re-rating of the stock. The dividend pay-out ratio has increased to 90-95% from 75-80% and the stock is now trading on a 5.9% dividend yield.

The beat to estimates was driven by better management fees, elevated other revenue and distributions from principal investments. Outperform. Target is raised to $30.50 from $28.00.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $27.21 Difference: $3.29
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.61, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades FY19 estimates by 7.5% but remains concerned about the flow momentum in retail funds. Retail flows produce flat-to-negative monthly rates from March to June and the broker forecasts $30m in monthly outflows in FY19.

Underweight maintained. Target is raised to $21.50 from $20.00. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $27.21 Difference: minus $5.71 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.61, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MFG as Hold (3) -

Magellan's 37% increase in FY18 profit came in ahead of consensus. Funds under management at the beginning of FY19 were 18% above the average level of FY18, the broker notes.

Given surplus capital, the fund manager has increased its dividend payout ratio to 90-95% of funds management earnings from 75-80% and 90-95% of performance fees from a previously indeterminate policy, hence the excitement.

The broker nevertheless sees no "bottom-up" drivers for the stock in FY19, leaving Magellan simply at the mercy of market performance. Hold retained. Target rises to $28.64 from $26.05.

Target price is $28.64 Current Price is $27.21 Difference: $1.43
If MFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.61, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MFG as Buy (1) -

FY18 results were predictably is strong, Ord Minnett observes. FUM at the end of the financial year underpins around 90% of the broker's management fee revenue forecasts, enabling pre-tax profit growth of 15%.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy call, as the company's relevant performance is now in an uptrend and compounding earnings growth. Target is raised to $32.00 from $30.73.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $27.21 Difference: $4.79
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.61, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Buy (1) -

Despite pre-announced assets and performance fees that reduced the scope for a surprise, FY18 net profit was ahead of UBS estimates. This came about because of lower funds management costs and stronger principal investment returns.

A lower cost base is expected to occur again in FY19 and the broker believes the funds management division is well-positioned for another year of double-digit profit growth. Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $30 from $28.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.21 Difference: $2.79
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.61, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

It appears Citi analysts had been expecting more, but they do note FY19 guidance came out in-line with market consensus for EPS growth and slightly above it in terms of funds from operations (FFO).

All in all, Citi believes the FY18 result combined with guidance shows the resilience that is embedded in the business. Nevertheless, a downgrade to Neutral as suggested upside is insufficient to warrant a Buy rating. Target gains 2c to $2.47.

Target price is $2.47 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.14
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

The company is guiding for growth in FY19 free funds from operations of 2-4%, in line with expectations, but Macquarie notes the composition is inconsistent with its forecasts, as profit sources appear abundant.

The company has committed to $1bn of active profits over three years, showing evidence of embedded margins and strong office conditions. Given the solid near-term outlook and attractive exposure to the booming Sydney and Melbourne office segment, Macquarie retains an Outperform rating. Target is raised 4% to $2.57.

Target price is $2.57 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.24
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley welcomed the strong FY18 result which was in line with forecasts. Growth of 3-4% came despite a fall in residential volumes which the broker suggests highlights the benefits of the company's diversified business model.

Still, softening residential volumes and a low proportion of FY19 EBIT secured by pre-sales may signal that a sustained re-rating is unlikely, the broker suggests. Underweight and $2.40 target retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.07
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MGR as Accumulate (2) -

FY18 results were in line with Ord Minnett. The broker acknowledges residential conditions are past their peak, but there is around $2.2bn in pre-sales with earnings well spaced to 2020. In addition, more than half of the residential lots are expected to have margins of greater than 25%.

Accumulate maintained. Target rises to $2.60 from $2.55.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.27
If MGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MGR as Sell (5) -

FY18 results were pre-announced and the focus is now on FY19 guidance and residential sales rates. Guidance of growth in distributions of 5% is in line with expectations but the mix surprises UBS.

Residential volumes are materially lower than expected, offset by higher commercial development profits. While the business is well-run and has high-quality assets, UBS considers the macro environment is a challenge to overcome. Sell rating. Target is raised to $2.22 from $2.16.

Target price is $2.22 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NGI as Outperform (1) -

FY18 results were better than Macquarie expected, supported by a $4m beat on performance fees. The broker considers a successful execution on the Mesirow transaction will have a material impact on the outlook.

The company is targeting platform growth which could support earnings on a 2-5 year view and the broker upgrades estimates for FY19 EPS by 14.4% and FY20 by 14.6%. Target is raised to $5.82 from $5.17.

Target price is $5.82 Current Price is $5.63 Difference: $0.19
If NGI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

Easy observation to make: Orora's in-line (but "solid") FY18 result failed to impress investors yesterday. North America delivered the disappointing part, but Citi analysts believe a few factors were at play, and they mask the improvement that is occurring beneath the surface (Point of Purchase, POP).

The analysts have slightly reduced forecasts, but expect organic growth initiatives and improving POP contributions to drive yet another solid performance in FY19.

Given the price target remains at $3.70, the rating also remains Neutral. Next catalyst could be an acquisition, suggest the analysts.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.21
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

FY18 results were in line with expectations. Credit Suisse believes the company offers solid earnings growth of 5-7% over the forecast period, driven by internal investments in efficiencies.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $3.55 from $3.45. Credit Suisse expects 40 basis points of organic margin expansion in FY19.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.06
If ORA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

FY18 results were broadly in line but not the solid beat that an elevated share price would require, Macquarie suggests. The broker believes a potential acquisition is the next likely catalyst and the base case is for two acquisitions in the next 12 months.

Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $3.70 from $3.59.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.21
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORA as Equal-weight (3) -

First half results were broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. Management has stated intentions to pursue M&A in North America but no deal has yet been announced. Thus, in the absence of any developments the broker suspects the market may be disappointed.

Equal-weight rating. Price target is raised to $3.60 from $3.50. Sector view is Cautious.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.11
If ORA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORA as Add (1) -

Orora's result came in broadly in line with the broker, but required a 2% earnings beat from Australasia to offset a -5% miss from North America. The broker has trimmed FY19 forecasts and dropped its target to $3.70 from $3.87.

The company was very quiet on the M&A front in FY18, the broker notes, as it concentrated on bedding down its new cloud-based system. With that now in place, a solid pipeline of opportunities looms in FY19 and Orora has balance sheet strength to exploit. Add retained.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.21
If ORA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORA as Hold (3) -

FY18 EPS was in line with Ord Minnett estimates. The result highlights that the strong run of margin expansion is losing momentum, the broker suggests. Management has signalled that and M&A deal could be on the agenda.

The broker agrees, with the balance sheet in solid shape, the company can certainly fund a deal as well as continue to invest in organic projects. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.50 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.01
If ORA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SGM as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank slightly reduces 2018 US scrap price forecasts. In the longer term, while China's policy should mean a preference for ferrous scrap the broker expects the increased demand will be largely sourced domestically.

Hold maintained. Target is raised to $16.70 from $15.00.

Target price is $16.70 Current Price is $16.50 Difference: $0.2
If SGM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.66, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGM as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett believes the business is likely to have received benefits from a supportive ferrous scrap environment, with strong export volumes out of both the US and UK.

However, the broker is somewhat concerned about a temperate ban on scrap into China that may have had a disproportionately large impact on second half earnings.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate because of the uncertain outlook. Target is reduced to $17.00 from $17.20.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $16.50 Difference: $0.5
If SGM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.66, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

FY18 results beat Credit Suisse estimates. A final dividend of $0.40 per share is in line with expectations. The broker notes a significant turnaround in the company's general insurance business.

The broker acknowledges, fundamentally, elevated reserve releases and low bad-debt years should not be capitalised but, as they are likely to continue in the near term, this will be the case. Neutral rating and $15.40 target.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $15.35 Difference: $0.05
If SUN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.84, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

FY18 net profit of $1.1bn was considerably stronger than Ord Minnett expected. The dividend was also ahead of expectations. The result was driven by underlying margins in the general insurance business, which rose to 11.7% in the second half from 9.4% in the first.

Ord Minnett believes Suncorp has some potentially conflicting FY19 hurdles, involving top-line growth, restoration of margins and returns on equity. The broker considers these targets will be difficult to hit. Hold rating and $15 target maintained.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $15.35 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.84, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

FY18 results were slightly ahead of estimates. Of significance, UBS finds compelling evidence that the general insurance margin momentum is shifting and, while this partly reflects industry trends, the company also appears to be executing well on claims initiatives.

The broker is comfortable with the level of FY19 underlying margin expansion that is factored into the business but also considers the bank segment a source of downside risk. Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $16.50 from $15.40.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.35 Difference: $1.15
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.84, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TPM as Sell (5) -

The company has launched a new mobile offering and UBS analysis reveals 8% of the 1858 consumers surveyed state they would definitely subscribe and 17% "probably subscribe". Whether this could equate to actual churn is unclear.

The broker notes, for those not interested in subscribing, network/service quality and a lack of voice/SMS were the main concerns. UBS maintains a Sell rating and raises the target to $5.50 from $5.30.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.70 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If TPM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources