Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates AEL as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett has updated its Energy and Utilities sector coverage following year-end revisions to spot prices, currency assumptions and a higher risk-free rate.

These changes have driven modest forecast EPS downgrades and price target adjustments across the broker's coverage within the sector.

Ord Minnett also lowers its near-term oil price forecasts and trims long-term assumptions, while LNG price expectations are reduced for 2026-27.

Stock-specific impacts are most notable for Beach Energy, reflecting a slower Waitsia ramp-up, and Santos, following delays at Barossa.

The target for Amplitude Energy rises to $2.53 from $2.39 (an exception). Sell rating retained.

Target price is $2.53 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If AEL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.27, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie sees softer power prices emerging as a headwind to AGL Energy's FY27-28 earnings, particularly in NSW, despite minimal impact on FY26.

It is considered that weakening wholesale conditions will be offset over time by capex spent on batteries and improving grid dynamics.

The broker highlights planned battery investment of over -$3bn is critical to replacing expiring legacy gas and coal earnings, alongside solid retail momentum from customer growth and recent acquisitions.

Longer-term earnings are expected to lift from FY29 as coal closures and interconnector benefits support pricing.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and lowers its target to $10.40 from $11.00.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: $1.52
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.00, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its Energy and Utilities sector coverage following year-end revisions to spot prices, currency assumptions and a higher risk-free rate.

These changes have driven modest forecast EPS downgrades and price target adjustments across the broker's coverage within the sector.

Ord Minnett also lowers its near-term oil price forecasts and trims long-term assumptions, while LNG price expectations are reduced for 2026-27.

Stock-specific impacts are most notable for Beach Energy, reflecting a slower Waitsia ramp-up, and Santos, following delays at Barossa.

The target for AGL Energy falls to $12.75 from $13.00. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $12.75 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: $3.87
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.00, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its Energy and Utilities sector coverage following year-end revisions to spot prices, currency assumptions and a higher risk-free rate.

These changes have driven modest forecast EPS downgrades and price target adjustments across the broker's coverage within the sector.

Ord Minnett also lowers its near-term oil price forecasts and trims long-term assumptions, while LNG price expectations are reduced for 2026-27.

Stock-specific impacts are most notable for Beach Energy, reflecting a slower Waitsia ramp-up, and Santos, following delays at Barossa.

The $37 target and Buy rating are maintained for Ampol.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $29.65 Difference: $7.35
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.33, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes funds under management (FUM) mark-to-market revisions for wealth managers were mixed in December, with global equity markets buoyant but a weaker domestic market.

Returns in 4Q25 were also mixed,  with domestic market declines partly offset by global equity and bond gains.

In the case of AMP, the broker trimmed FY25 EPS forecast by -0.3% and FY26 by -1.4% on lower returns across Platform, and Super & Investments.

Target cut to $1.90 from $1.95. Neutral maintained.

This report was published January 5.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.1
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APA as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has updated its Energy and Utilities sector coverage following year-end revisions to spot prices, currency assumptions and a higher risk-free rate.

These changes have driven modest forecast EPS downgrades and price target adjustments across the broker's coverage within the sector.

Ord Minnett also lowers its near-term oil price forecasts and trims long-term assumptions, while LNG price expectations are reduced for 2026-27.

Stock-specific impacts are most notable for Beach Energy, reflecting a slower Waitsia ramp-up, and Santos, following delays at Barossa.

The broker lowers its target price for APA Group to $8.30 from $8.70 and retains an Accumulate rating. 

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.33, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AUB as Neutral (3) -

UBS' latest sector update on ASX-listed insurers observes CAT reinsurance renewal commentary from major international reinsurance brokers remains in line with its forecasts.

Overall, UBS analysts expect abundant capacity and healthy ROEs to continue driving an ongoing slowdown in global commercial premium rates through 2026

The broker's sector preference remains for personal lines-skewed insurers, with Insurance Australia Group the top pick, reflecting greater earnings upside risk from RI profit commissions.

UBS has a Neutral rating and $33.70 target price on AUB Group.

Target price is $33.70 Current Price is $30.87 Difference: $2.83
If AUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.95, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BMC as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans has initiated coverage of BMC Minerals with a Speculative Buy rating and a target price of $4.90.

The company's 100% owned Kudz Ze Kayah project is a high-grade, undeveloped polymetallic project with reserve grades of 597g/t silver equivalent and indicative production of 32Moz silver per annum.

The broker's modeled economics are robust, with US$780m annual revenue, US$435m EBITDA (52% margin) and US$287m free cash flow, implying a 29% FCF yield at conservative price assumptions.

The project compares favourably with past high-return polymetallic and base-metal assets such as Vares, Nova-Bollinger and DeGrussa, the broker highlights.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $2.06
If BMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has updated its Energy and Utilities sector coverage following year-end revisions to spot prices, currency assumptions and a higher risk-free rate.

These changes have driven modest forecast EPS downgrades and price target adjustments across the broker's coverage within the sector.

Ord Minnett also lowers its near-term oil price forecasts and trims long-term assumptions, while LNG price expectations are reduced for 2026-27.

Stock-specific impacts are most notable for Beach Energy, reflecting a slower Waitsia ramp-up, and Santos, following delays at Barossa.

The target for Beach Energy falls to $1.12 from $1.15. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $1.12 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting downside of -11.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes mixed mark-to-market movements for Challenger in 2Q26, with widening credit spreads partly offset by softer annuity spreads, impacting new business pricing.

The relative value of annuities versus bank deposits has narrowed modestly, highlights the analyst.

The broker points to strong adviser portal activity, which is positively correlated with retail sales and may support margins in 1H26. It's noted valuation has lifted versus history but remains at a discount to the broader market.

The analyst makes modest earnings adjustments reflecting portfolio mark-to-market effects, while buybacks and Japanese distribution provide support.

The target rises to $10.00 from $9.30. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.32 Difference: $0.68
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.97, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGF as Buy (1) -

UBS notes funds under management (FUM) mark-to-market revisions for wealth managers were mixed in December, with global equity markets buoyant but a weaker domestic market.

Returns in 4Q25 were also mixed, with domestic market declines partly offset by global equity and bond gains.

The broker made modest revisions to Challenger's FY26 and FY27 EPS forecasts. Target cut to $10.95 from $11.00, and Buy maintained.

This report was published January 5.

Target price is $10.95 Current Price is $9.32 Difference: $1.63
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.97, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CPU as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi lowers its target for Computershare to $39.60 from $40.40 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

Risk is now skewed to the upside, according to the broker, with rising M&A, IPO and debt issuance activity potentially offsetting softer margin income. The company is seen as increasingly leveraged to lower rates, stimulating US capital markets.

The broker trims its medium-term EPS forecasts to reflect further US rate cut prospects, but considers additional downside from margin income increasingly limited.

It's noted debt issuance trends remain encouraging across multiple asset classes, while corporate action shows early signs of recovery.

Target price is $39.60 Current Price is $33.96 Difference: $5.64
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.16, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CVN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has updated its Energy and Utilities sector coverage following year-end revisions to spot prices, currency assumptions and a higher risk-free rate.

These changes have driven modest forecast EPS downgrades and price target adjustments across the broker's coverage within the sector.

Ord Minnett also lowers its near-term oil price forecasts and trims long-term assumptions, while LNG price expectations are reduced for 2026-27.

Stock-specific impacts are most notable for Beach Energy, reflecting a slower Waitsia ramp-up, and Santos, following delays at Barossa.

The target for Carnarvon Energy is 15c. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.06
If CVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DLI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes lithium prices rebounded strongly in the December quarter, with SC6 price up 35% q/q and lithium carbonate up 18%. Spot prices have surged further due to improving demand and normalising inventories.

Pricing strength reflects continued EV growth, rising ESS demand and policy support, particularly in China, with spodumene responding faster than contract lithium chemicals.

The broker upgraded its outlook, estimating SC6 at US$1,750/t in 2026 before stepping down to a long-term US$1,400/t from 2030, a material uplift from prior assumptions.

Target for Delta Lithium rises to 41c from 35c. Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $0.41

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EBR as Buy (1) -

EBR Systems pre-released 4Q25 results showing quarterly sales of US$0.9m, resulting in FY25 sales of US$1.6m, ahead of Bell Potter's US$1.0m estimate.

The broker notes implant volumes doubled q/q and solid progress was made in hospital contracts and physician training.

The company upgraded its total addressable market (TAM) estimate by 61% to US$5.8bn, driven by a larger patient cohort, CRT market penetration and higher ASPs supported by CMS reimbursement.

EBR also confirmed commencement of key post-approval studies in the US and Totally Leadless study in Australia, which could further expand TAM by US$2bn over time.

No change to forecasts. Buy rating and $2.43 target price are intact.

Target price is $2.43 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $1.38
If EBR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EBR as Buy (1) -

Morgans observes 4Q25 marked a step-up in execution for EBR Systems, with case volumes doubling q/q and revenue 60% ahead of expectations. This confirms accelerating physician uptake during the Limited Market Release.

Clinical progress and a 60% total addressable market (TAM) upgrade to US$5.8bn reinforce the longer-term adoption and expansion opportunity for WiSE, the broker highlights

The broker lifted FY25 sales forecast by 42%, FY26 by 34% and FY27 by 16%. Target rises to $2.95 from $2.86, and Buy retained.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $1.9
If EBR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 181% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EDV as Buy (1) -

Endeavour Group's 1H26 trading update flagged group EBIT of $555-566m, missing consensus by -5.6% at the midpoint and Bell Potter's forecast by -7.1%.

The weaker outcome was driven by an -85bps decline in retail margins that only partly offsets improving sales momentum, the broker notes. In 2Q26, retail sales improved on increased promotions, while hotels delivered solid growth led by gaming and refurbished venues.

A strategic retail pricing reset under the new CEO supports long-term value and top-line recovery, though near-term earnings downgrades are likely pending clearer execution detail, the broker cautions.

FY26 EPS forecast cut by -19% and FY27 by -9%. Buy retained and target lowered to $4.00 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0.3
If EDV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EDV as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

After further analysis of yesterday's trading update, Citi raises its target for Endeavour Group to $4.10 from $3.92 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

The broker believes the promotion-led downgrade was largely anticipated. Absent a further deterioration in trading conditions or the need for additional pricing or investment support, the analyst sees scope for this to be the last downgrade in the near term.

A summary of Citi's initial thoughts yesterday follows.

Today's trading update by Endeavour Group showed improving retail sales trends, Citi notes. However, discounting pressured margins, driving a -7.5% miss to the consensus profit (PBT) forecast.

As part of an early assessment, the broker highlights retail gross margins fell sharply year on year, raising questions over sustainable margin levels amid intense competition. Hotels delivered resilient earnings in line with the analyst's expectations.

Citi sees limited near-term relief, noting retail strategy changes will take time to emerge and significant one-off costs were flagged outside consensus forecasts.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0.4
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EDV as Underperform (5) -

From yesterday's trading update, Macquarie notes Endeavour Group's price investment has driven 1H26 EBIT guidance miss vs the broker's forecast and consensus by -4% and -5%, respectively.

Momentum is improving in Retail, notes the analyst, albeit led by pricing and promotion. Further investment is expected as Dan Murphy's re-establishes its positioning. 

EPS forecasts for FY26-27 trimmed by -4%. Underperform and target falls to $3.40 from $3.50. 

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EDV as Equal-weight (3) -

Endeavour Group’s 1H FY26 trading update flagged weaker-than-expected earnings, driven by heavier promotional activity and gross margin pressure, explains Morgan Stanley. Revenue met the consensus forecast.

Overall, the analysts see the result as reflecting deliberate investment in value to stabilise volumes.

The broker points out retail earnings (EBIT) guidance missed consensus on margin contraction, while hotels performed broadly in line, supported by gaming growth. Supply chain transition costs weigh near term but are expected to deliver longer-term benefits.

Morgan Stanley sees management prioritising top-line recovery through price leadership, execution improvements and cost-out initiatives, with further detail due at the half-year result.

Equal-weight. Target $4.30. Industry View: In Line.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0.6
If EDV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EDV as Hold (3) -

Endeavour Group's 1H26 trading update showed retail sales rebounded in 2Q26 after a 1Q decline, driven by sharper pricing and promotions. However, this came at the cost of materially lower 1H26 margins, Morgans highlights.

The broker notes 1H26 EBIT guidance of $555-566m was around -5% below forecasts, with Retail EBIT -12% y/y and -13% below its forecast. Hotels EBIT guidance for 1H26 outperformed the broker's estimate by 7% but was largely in line with the consensus.

Management will outline further sales initiatives beyond pricing and additional cost-out measures at the 1H26 results and upcoming investor day, though implementation and benefits are expected to take time to materialise.

Hold retained. Target unchanged at $3.70 as earnings downgrades were offset by roll-forward to FY27 forecasts.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0
If EDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EDV as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett lowers its target for Endeavour Group and downgrades to Lighten from Hold after 1H FY26 earnings (EBIT) guidance came in almost -6% below the consensus expectation.

The broker explains price discounting to support sales weighed on retail margins. Liquor earnings were the key drag, with margins contracting sharply despite sales meeting forecasts, highlights the analyst.

Management is prioritising volume growth, with Dan Murphy’s and BWS delivering solid sales momentum, while hotels performance remained robust on gaming and refurbishments, notes Ord Minnett.

The broker highlights the risk is whether competitors follow the pricing lead, extending margin pressure across the sector.

Target price $3.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Endeavour Group's guidance for 1H26 sales and EBIT fell short of consensus and UBS forecasts, driven by weaker Retail margins, partly offset by stronger-than-expected Hotel performance.

The broker notes retail sales stabilised in 2Q26 but required significant price investment, with margins under pressure and more cost savings needed to offset inflation and operating leverage headwinds.

Hotel continues to perform well on favourable industry tailwinds, though the company still trails peers in gaming and food & bar execution, the broker notes.

FY26 EPS forecast cut by -8.2% and FY27 by -10.5%. Neutral rating retained and target trimmed to $3.75 from $3.90.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0.05
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FBU as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie believes Fletcher Building’s 2Q FY26 volumes imply downside risk to FY26 earnings, estimating a potential -NZ$50m non-mitigated earnings (EBIT) shortfall versus forecasts. It is considered increasingly difficult to assess outcomes without formal guidance.

Management has flagged second-half cost-outs and potential land asset sales, which could materially influence earnings skew, suggests the analyst, particularly if realised in H2.

The broker sees consensus expectations for FY27 as optimistic given limited near-term volume recovery. Scope is seen for a re-rating in the longer term following non-core asset sales, but near-term risks dominate.

Unchanged NZ$1.73 target. Underperform rating retained.

Current Price is $3.21. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GGP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie incorporated Greatland Resources' preliminary December quarter report into its forecasts, lifting the full-year production forecast by 3%. FY26 EPS forecast rises by 2% after also accounting for higher cost assumptions.

No change to Outperform rating and $11.40 target price.

Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $12.61 Difference: minus $1.21 (current price is over target).
If GGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.63, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GQG as Outperform (1) -

GQG Partners’ December net outflows of -$2.1bn disappointed against Macquarie's expectation, weighing on sentiment despite funds under management (FUM) being broadly in line with forecast.

All strategies experienced outflows, extending recent weakness in flows, notes the analyst.

The broker trims its FY26-27 EPS estimates by -3-6% to reflect lower assumed net flows, noting flagship funds remain below benchmark over most timeframes. Even so, FUM resilience and fund positioning are viewed as supportive.

Macquarie continues to see value underpinned by an attractive yield, with upcoming flow updates key near-term catalysts.

Target falls to $2.20 from $2.35. Outperform rating kept.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: $0.56
If GQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 46.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GQG as Buy (1) -

UBS notes funds under management (FUM) mark-to-market revisions for wealth managers were mixed in December, with global equity markets buoyant but a weaker domestic market.

Returns in 4Q25 were also mixed,  with domestic market declines partly offset by global equity and bond gains.

In the case of GQG Partners, the impact is modest with FY25 EPS forecast unchanged and FY26 lifted by 0.4%. Buy rating and $2.10 target are unchanged.

This report was published January 5.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: $0.46
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 46.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GT1 as Speculative Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes lithium prices rebounded strongly in the December quarter, with SC6 price up 35% q/q and lithium carbonate up 18%. Spot prices have surged further due to improving demand and normalising inventories.

Pricing strength reflects continued EV growth, rising ESS demand and policy support, particularly in China, with spodumene responding faster than contract lithium chemicals.

The broker upgraded its outlook, estimating SC6 at US$1,750/t in 2026 before stepping down to a long-term US$1,400/t from 2030, a material uplift from prior assumptions.

Target for Green Technology Metals rises to 5.8c from 4.5c as the broker trimmed the risk discount previously applied to the valuation.

Speculative Hold maintained.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.008
If GT1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HMC as Buy (1) -

UBS notes funds under management (FUM) mark-to-market revisions for wealth managers were mixed in December, with global equity markets buoyant but a weaker domestic market.

Returns in 4Q25 were also mixed, with domestic market declines partly offset by global equity and bond gains.

The broker cut HMC Capital's FY26 EPS forecast by a sharp -25.5% and FY27 by -1.7%. Target cut to $6.60 from $7.14, and Buy maintained.

This report was published January 5.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: $2.17
If HMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie lifted Hub24's FY26 and FY27 EPS forecasts by 2.7%, reflecting mark-to-market adjustments and a full model refresh incorporating updated key assumptions.

Neutral maintained. Target price $100.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $95.44 Difference: $4.56
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $111.16, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes funds under management (FUM) mark-to-market revisions for wealth managers were mixed in December, with global equity markets buoyant but a weaker domestic market.

Returns in 4Q25 were also mixed, with domestic market declines partly offset by global equity and bond gains.

The broker trimmed Hub24's FY26 EPS forecast by -1.8% and FY27 by -1.9%. Target cut to $106 from $110, and Neutral maintained.

This report was published January 5.

Target price is $106.00 Current Price is $95.44 Difference: $10.56
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $111.16, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Insurance Australia Group has integrated RACQ Insurance into group reinsurance from January 2026 and expanded its WAQS (whole of quota share) to 35% of GEP (gross earned premium).

The broker reckons this will reduce volatility and enhance reinsurance synergies. With FY26 guidance unchanged despite near-term headwinds, this implies strong margin momentum and potential upside from RI profit commissions.

In a separate report, the broker stated its sector preference remains for personal lines-skewed insurers, with Insurance Australia Group the top pick, reflecting greater earnings upside risks from RI profit commissions.

Buy retained. Target price $9.10.

This report was published January 6.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $7.69 Difference: $1.41
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.86, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates INR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes lithium prices rebounded strongly in the December quarter, with SC6 price up 35% q/q and lithium carbonate up 18%. Spot prices have surged further due to improving demand and normalising inventories.

Pricing strength reflects continued EV growth, rising ESS demand and policy support, particularly in China, with spodumene responding faster than contract lithium chemicals.

The broker upgraded its outlook, estimating lithium carbonate at US$16,000/t in 2026-27, a material uplift from prior assumptions and US$18,000 in 2028 from US$16,750/t. The long-term estimate is unchanged at US$19,000/t from 2030.

Target for ioneer rises to 46c from 36c, and it assumes an upside-case long-term LC price of US$20,900/t, 10% above the base case.

Speculative Buy stays.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.24
If INR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 109% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JIN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie looks through near-term softness in Australian lottery volumes at Jumbo Interactive, focusing on longer-term earnings growth and valuation appeal. It is seen that weaker jackpot activity has weighed on FY26 trends, though base games remain supportive.

The broker trims its volume and EPS forecasts modestly, noting ongoing debate around reseller renewal risk and recent M&A execution continues to pressure the share price. Even so, valuation is considered compelling given strong medium-term EPS growth.

The analyst expects earnings momentum to improve beyond FY26 as conditions normalise.

Target falls to $14.60 from $15.00. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $11.10 Difference: $3.5
If JIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.95, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KAR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its Energy and Utilities sector coverage following year-end revisions to spot prices, currency assumptions and a higher risk-free rate.

These changes have driven modest forecast EPS downgrades and price target adjustments across the broker's coverage within the sector.

Ord Minnett also lowers its near-term oil price forecasts and trims long-term assumptions, while LNG price expectations are reduced for 2026-27.

Stock-specific impacts are most notable for Beach Energy, reflecting a slower Waitsia ramp-up, and Santos, following delays at Barossa.

Target for Karoon Energy is $2.40. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.84
If KAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates L1G as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes funds under management (FUM) mark-to-market revisions for wealth managers were mixed in December, with global equity markets buoyant but a weaker domestic market.

Returns in 4Q25 were also mixed,  with domestic market declines partly offset by global equity and bond gains.

The broker lifted L1 Group's FY26 EPS forecast by 2.7% and FY27 by 4.7%. Target price $1.12, with rating maintained at Neutral.

This report was published January 5.

L1 Group is the new name for the merged entities Platinum Asset Management and L1 Capital, and the merger took effect on October 1, 2025..

Target price is $1.12 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.02
If L1G meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LTR as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes lithium prices rebounded strongly in the December quarter, with SC6 price up 35% q/q and lithium carbonate up 18%. Spot prices have surged further due to improving demand and normalising inventories.

Pricing strength reflects continued EV growth, rising ESS demand and policy support, particularly in China, with spodumene responding faster than contract lithium chemicals.

The broker upgraded its outlook, estimating SC6 at US$1,750/t in 2026 before stepping down to a long-term US$1,400/t from 2030, a material uplift from prior assumptions.

Sharp lifts to Liontown's EPS forecasts for FY26-28. Target rises to $2.48 from $1.52, and it assumes an upside-case long-term SC6 price of US$1,680/t, 20% above the base case.

Buy stays.

Target price is $2.48 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.27
If LTR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.36, suggesting downside of -37.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes funds under management (FUM) mark-to-market revisions for wealth managers were mixed in December, with global equity markets buoyant but a weaker domestic market.

Returns in 4Q25 were also mixed,  with domestic market declines partly offset by global equity and bond gains.

The broker lifted Magellan Financial's FY26 EPS forecast by 3.4% but lowered FY27 by -2.2% on lower investment returns offset by decreased share count from buybacks. Target cut to $10.00 from $10.70, and Neutral maintained.

This report was published January 5.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.05 Difference: $0.95
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.29, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Maas Group secured $200m contract with Firmis for the 100MW Launceston AI factory cluster via its subsidiary JLE Group. This largely drove a 10% lift in the EPS forecasts for FY26 and FY27.

The broker sees material upside potential if the company secures the next 500MW of work in Tasmania.

Outperform. Target rises to $5.55 from $5.10.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $5.75 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If MGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes lithium prices rebounded strongly in the December quarter, with SC6 price up 35% q/q and lithium carbonate up 18%. Spot prices have surged further due to improving demand and normalising inventories.

Pricing strength reflects continued EV growth, rising ESS demand and policy support, particularly in China, with spodumene responding faster than contract lithium chemicals.

The broker upgraded its outlook, estimating SC6 at US$1,750/t in 2026 before stepping down to a long-term US$1,400/t from 2030, a material uplift from prior assumptions.

Sharp lifts to Mineral Resources' EPS forecasts for FY26-28. Target rises to $68 from $59, and it assumes an upside-case long-term SC6 price of US$1,680/t, 20% above the base case.

Buy maintained.

Target price is $68.00 Current Price is $60.50 Difference: $7.5
If MIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $53.63, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

UBS' latest sector update on ASX-listed insurers observes CAT reinsurance renewal commentary from major international reinsurance brokers remains in line with the broker's forecasts.

Overall, UBS analysts expect abundant capacity and healthy ROEs to continue driving an ongoing slowdown in global commercial premium rates through 2026

The broker's sector preference remains for personal lines-skewed insurers, with Insurance Australia Group the top pick, reflecting greater earnings upside risk from RI profit commissions.

UBS has a Neutral rating and $5.15 target price on Medibank Private.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $0.4
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.22, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Citi updates its Newmont Corp financial model to reflect revised guidance and commodity assumptions, maintaining a constructive view supported by a solid free cash flow yield.

The broker's gold price expectations are neutral after the recent run-up, with moderation forecast into 2026.

The analyst expects 2025 production near midpoint guidance, while higher gold prices are likely to lift costs via increased royalties.

Output is seen moderating in 2026 due to mine sequencing and disruption at Boddington, alongside elevated reclamation spend.

The target rises to $177 from $160 and the Buy rating is kept.

Target price is $177.00 Current Price is $167.29 Difference: $9.71
If NEM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $172.80, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NGI as Buy (1) -

UBS notes funds under management (FUM) mark-to-market revisions for wealth managers were mixed in December, with global equity markets buoyant but a weaker domestic market.

Returns in 4Q25 were also mixed,  with domestic market declines partly offset by global equity and bond gains.

The broker lifted Navigator Global Investments's FY26 EPS forecast by 0.1% and FY27 by 0.5%. Buy rating and $3.85 target are unchanged.

This report was published January 5.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.87
If NGI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

UBS' latest sector update on ASX-listed insurers observes CAT reinsurance renewal commentary from major international reinsurance brokers remains in line with the broker's forecasts.

Overall, UBS analysts expect abundant capacity and healthy ROEs to continue driving an ongoing slowdown in global commercial premium rates through 2026

The broker's sector preference remains for personal lines-skewed insurers, with Insurance Australia Group the top pick, reflecting greater earnings upside risks from RI profit commissions.

UBS has a Neutral rating and $7.60 target price on nib Holdings.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $6.76 Difference: $0.84
If NHF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.59, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie made minor downward revisions to Netwealth Group's EPS forecasts for FY26-27 following mark-to-market.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $33.05.

Target price is $33.05 Current Price is $25.15 Difference: $7.9
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.51, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes funds under management (FUM) mark-to-market revisions for wealth managers were mixed in December, with global equity markets buoyant but a weaker domestic market.

Returns in 4Q25 were also mixed, with domestic market declines partly offset by global equity and bond gains.

The broker trimmed Netwealth Group's FY26 EPS forecast by -0.9% and FY27 by -1.0% after factoring in earnings changes and First Guardian impacts. Target cut to $28.50 from $33.50, and Neutral maintained.

This report was published January 5.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $25.15 Difference: $3.35
If NWL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.51, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie made adjustments to its model for Orora, resulting in a -1.4% cut to FY26 EPS forecast and -0.8% cut to FY27.

Outperform. Target unchanged at $2.35.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.1
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie sees valuation downside risk for Origin Energy from weaker domestic power prices and LNG headwinds, weighing on medium-term earnings.

Softer NSW pricing and lower oil prices are considered likely to dampen FY27-28 outcomes, while the FY26 impact remains limited.

The broker notes Kraken’s recent capital raising priced below expectations, trimming valuation, though improved capitalisation supports growth optionality and de-risking over time.

The analyst's forecast earnings downgrades are driven largely by lower APLNG contributions, with Energy Markets also softening. It's thought Kraken will provide longer-term upside, offset by near-term valuation and commodity challenges.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and lowers its target by -80c to $11.00.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.05 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.00, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has updated its Energy and Utilities sector coverage following year-end revisions to spot prices, currency assumptions and a higher risk-free rate.

These changes have driven modest forecast EPS downgrades and price target adjustments across the broker's coverage within the sector.

Ord Minnett also lowers its near-term oil price forecasts and trims long-term assumptions, while LNG price expectations are reduced for 2026-27.

Stock-specific impacts are most notable for Beach Energy, reflecting a slower Waitsia ramp-up, and Santos, following delays at Barossa.

The target for Origin Energy falls to $10.80 from $11.00. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $11.05 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.00, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PLS as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Bell Potter notes lithium prices rebounded strongly in the December quarter, with SC6 price up 35% q/q and lithium carbonate up 18%. Spot prices have surged further due to improving demand and normalising inventories.

Pricing strength reflects continued EV growth, rising ESS demand and policy support, particularly in China, with spodumene responding faster than contract lithium chemicals.

The broker upgraded its outlook, estimating SC6 at US$1,750/t in 2026 before stepping down to a long-term US$1,400/t from 2030, a material uplift from prior assumptions.

Sharp lifts to PLS Group's EPS forecasts for FY26-28. Target rises to $4.55 from $2.65, and it assumes an upside-case long-term SC6 price of US$1,680/t, 20% above the base case.

Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting downside of -22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PMT as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes lithium prices rebounded strongly in the December quarter, with SC6 price up 35% q/q and lithium carbonate up 18%. Spot prices have surged further due to improving demand and normalising inventories.

Pricing strength reflects continued EV growth, rising ESS demand and policy support, particularly in China, with spodumene responding faster than contract lithium chemicals.

The broker upgraded its outlook, estimating SC6 at US$1,750/t in 2026 before stepping down to a long-term US$1,400/t from 2030, a material uplift from prior assumptions.

Target for PMET Resources rises to 97c from 65c, and it assumes an upside-case long-term SC6 price of US$1,540/t, 10% above the base case. Speculative Buy maintained.

Target price is $0.97 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.24
If PMT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.78, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PNI as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes funds under management (FUM) mark-to-market revisions for wealth managers were mixed in December, with global equity markets buoyant but a weaker domestic market.

Returns in 4Q25 were also mixed,  with domestic market declines partly offset by global equity and bond gains.

The broker trimmed Pinnacle Investment Management's FY26 EPS forecast by -0.8% and FY27 by -1.0 on lower domestic equity market performance. Target cut to $18.40 from $20.50. Neutral maintained.

This report was published January 5.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $17.90 Difference: $0.5
If PNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.46, suggesting upside of 31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PXA as Buy (1) -

UK expansion remains the key upside for Pexa Group, but UBS notes sentiment has been dampened by Australian regulatory uncertainty. 

In that context, the broker points to two independent reports published by ARNECC highlighting high cost, complexity and limited economic benefit from IOP (interoperability). This reinforces the reasons for the Sep-24 pause and reduces the likelihood of adverse outcomes.

With ARNECC’s formal position and IPART’s draft ELNO fee report due by March, regulatory clarity is approaching, raising optimism that regulatory clouds could clear.

Buy retained for Pexa. Target trimmed to $17.00 from $17.45, mainly on a higher DCF risk-free rate in the valuation.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $13.61 Difference: $3.39
If PXA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.66, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

UBS' latest sector update on ASX-listed insurers observes CAT reinsurance renewal commentary from major international reinsurance brokers remains in line with its forecasts.

Overall, UBS analysts expect abundant capacity and healthy ROEs to continue driving an ongoing slowdown in global commercial premium rates through 2026

The broker's sector preference remains for personal lines-skewed insurers, with Insurance Australia Group the top pick reflecting greater earnings upside risks from RI profit commissions.

UBS has a Buy rating and $23.25 target price on QBE Insurance. The insurer's FY25 result is due February 20.

Target price is $23.25 Current Price is $19.87 Difference: $3.38
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.74, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes Regis Resources' 2Q26 update was a modest beat to its estimate, driven mainly by Tropicana.

The broker made minor FY26 production adjustments, resulting in a modest 2.1% upgrade to the FY26 EPS forecast.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $7.60.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.74, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SDF as Buy (1) -

UBS' latest sector update on ASX-listed insurers observes CAT reinsurance renewal commentary from major international reinsurance brokers remains in line with its forecasts.

Overall, UBS analysts expect abundant capacity and healthy ROEs to continue driving an ongoing slowdown in global commercial premium rates through 2026

The broker's sector preference remains for personal lines-skewed insurers, with Insurance Australia Group the top pick, reflecting greater earnings upside risk from RI profit commissions.

UBS has a Buy rating and $6.80 target price on Steadfast Group.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.26 Difference: $1.54
If SDF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has updated its Energy and Utilities sector coverage following year-end revisions to spot prices, currency assumptions and a higher risk-free rate.

These changes have driven modest forecast EPS downgrades and price target adjustments across the broker's coverage within the sector.

Ord Minnett also lowers its near-term oil price forecasts and trims long-term assumptions, while LNG price expectations are reduced for 2026-27.

Stock-specific impacts are most notable for Beach Energy, reflecting a slower Waitsia ramp-up, and Santos, following delays at Barossa.

The target for Santos falls to $7.80 from $8.00. Accumulate rating retained.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $6.14 Difference: $1.66
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.40, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STX as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its Energy and Utilities sector coverage following year-end revisions to spot prices, currency assumptions and a higher risk-free rate.

These changes have driven modest forecast EPS downgrades and price target adjustments across the broker's coverage within the sector.

Ord Minnett also lowers its near-term oil price forecasts and trims long-term assumptions, while LNG price expectations are reduced for 2026-27.

Stock-specific impacts are most notable for Beach Energy, reflecting a slower Waitsia ramp-up, and Santos, following delays at Barossa.

Target for Strike Energy is 18c. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.06
If STX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.15, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

UBS' latest sector update on ASX-listed insurers observes CAT reinsurance renewal commentary from major international reinsurance brokers remains in line with the broker's forecasts.

Overall, UBS analysts expect abundant capacity and healthy ROEs to continue driving an ongoing slowdown in global commercial premium rates through 2026

The broker's sector preference remains for personal lines-skewed insurers, with Insurance Australia Group the top pick reflecting greater earnings upside risks from RI profit commissions.

UBS has a Buy rating and $20.85 target price on Suncorp Group.

Target price is $20.85 Current Price is $17.26 Difference: $3.59
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.54, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie keeps its target for Lottery Corp at $5.40 though upgrades to Outperform from Neutral as the recent share price fall provides a buying opportunity, in the analyst's view.

The company's valuation now sits at the low end of historical ranges, highlights the broker. It's felt earnings revisions, rather than bond yields, remain the key driver of share price performance.

The broker trims its lottery volume and EPS forecasts modestly, reflecting softer jackpot activity in FY26 year-to-date, though base games continue to grow. Second-half volume recovery is expected, with management commentary at the upcoming result a key focus.

The analyst expects earnings to smooth over time as jackpot conditions normalise.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: $0.35
If TLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

UBS expects 2026 to remain constructive for Australian large-cap telcos, with mobile pricing discipline, cost control and easing capex intensity supporting a return on invested capital (ROIC) recovery.

The sector is seen as benefiting from a two-year spectrum holiday and moderating 5G rollout spend.

The broker highlights mobile price rises as the key earnings lever, while monitoring incremental satellite costs, particularly for Telstra Group following its direct-to-handset rollout.

Capital management remains central, according to the analysts, with strong balance sheets supporting further buybacks despite higher future spectrum renewal costs.

Telstra’s valuation is justified, according to the broker, supported by an attractive dividend yield and steady DPS growth outlook.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and raises its target by 10c to $4.90.

The broker's report was issued on January 7.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: $0.08
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.91, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TPG as Neutral (3) -

UBS expects 2026 to remain constructive for Australian large-cap telcos, with mobile pricing discipline, cost control and easing capex intensity supporting a return on invested capital (ROIC) recovery.

The sector is seen as benefiting from a two-year spectrum holiday and moderating 5G rollout spend. The broker highlights mobile price rises as the key earnings lever, while monitoring incremental satellite costs.

Capital management remains central, according to the analysts, with strong balance sheets supporting further buybacks despite higher future spectrum renewal costs.

The broker expects TPG Telecom will keep raising prices in postpaid but factors in -$1 dilution from trade-down:

UBS retains a Neutral rating and lowers the target to $3.80 from $5.40 to incorporate recent divestments.

The broker's report was issued on January 7.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If TPG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.49, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its Energy and Utilities sector coverage following year-end revisions to spot prices, currency assumptions and a higher risk-free rate.

These changes have driven modest forecast EPS downgrades and price target adjustments across the broker's coverage within the sector.

Ord Minnett also lowers its near-term oil price forecasts and trims long-term assumptions, while LNG price expectations are reduced for 2026-27.

Stock-specific impacts are most notable for Beach Energy, reflecting a slower Waitsia ramp-up, and Santos, following delays at Barossa.

The target for Viva Energy falls to $3.20 from $3.30. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $1.25
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 40.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates VUL as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes lithium prices rebounded strongly in the December quarter, with SC6 price up 35% q/q and lithium carbonate up 18%. Spot prices have surged further due to improving demand and normalising inventories.

Pricing strength reflects continued EV growth, rising ESS demand and policy support, particularly in China, with spodumene responding faster than contract lithium chemicals.

The broker upgraded its outlook, estimating lithium carbonate at US$16,000/t in 2026-27, a material uplift from prior assumptions and US$18,000 in 2028 from US$16,750/t. The long-term estimate is unchanged at US$19,000/t from 2030.

Target for Vulcan Energy Resources $6.10, and it assumes an upside-case long-term LC price of US$20,900/t, 10% above the base case. Speculative Buy is unchanged.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $4.67 Difference: $1.43
If VUL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie factored in West African Resources' 4Q25 production numbers into its forecasts, noting FY25 full-year production beat estimates by 4%.

This resulted in a 2% upgrade to FY25 EBITDA forecast and a 2% lift to EPS estimate.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates WC8 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights strong final drill results for Wildcat Resources from the 2025 program at the Bolt Cutter lithium discovery. It's felt this reinforces the scale potential of a stacked pegmatite system and provides a potential satellite to the Tabba Tabba project.

The broker sees scope for further growth laterally and at depth, supporting a dual exploration and development strategy. Fast-tracked timelines are enabled by granted mining leases and a secured Native Title Agreement, explain the analysts.

Shaw expects first production by FY28, positioning Wildcat to benefit from a lithium price recovery and structurally strong demand.

The Buy, High Risk rating and 70c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.27
If WC8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WDS as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has updated its Energy and Utilities sector coverage following year-end revisions to spot prices, currency assumptions and a higher risk-free rate.

These changes have driven modest forecast EPS downgrades and price target adjustments across the broker's coverage within the sector.

Ord Minnett also lowers its near-term oil price forecasts and trims long-term assumptions, while LNG price expectations are reduced for 2026-27.

Stock-specific impacts are most notable for Beach Energy, reflecting a slower Waitsia ramp-up, and Santos, following delays at Barossa.

The target for Woodside Energy falls to $24.25 from $25.00. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $24.25 Current Price is $23.31 Difference: $0.94
If WDS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.99, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources