Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A11 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains constructive on the lithium market outlook despite near-term headwinds from lower lithium prices and slow EV sales. The broker has lowered its short-term price forecasts but upgraded its long-term outlook, underpinned by higher operating and development costs.

This results in earnings forecast and target price adjustments across lithium miners under coverage. Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals are the broker's preferred picks.

Outperform and 80c target retained for Atlantic Lithium.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.325
If A11 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates A2M as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for a2 Milk Co to Accumulate from Hold on valuation after a recent share price decline.

No changes are made to the broker's forecasts and the $7.20 target is unchanged.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $5.88 Difference: $1.32
If A2M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.70, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGY as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains constructive on the lithium market outlook despite near-term headwinds from lower lithium prices and slow EV sales. The broker has lowered its short-term price forecasts but upgraded its long-term outlook, underpinned by higher operating and development costs.

This results in earnings forecast and target price adjustments across lithium miners under coverage. Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals are the broker's preferred picks.

Argosy Minerals' target falls to 80c from 85c, Outperform retained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.32
If AGY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AKE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains constructive on the lithium market outlook despite near-term headwinds from lower lithium prices and slow EV sales. The broker has lowered its short-term price forecasts but upgraded its long-term outlook, underpinned by higher operating and development costs.

This results in earnings forecast and target price adjustments across lithium miners under coverage. Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals are the broker's preferred picks.

Allkem's target falls to $17 from $19, Outperform retained.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $10.28 Difference: $6.72
If AKE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.85, suggesting upside of 42.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALU as Neutral (3) -

Citi reviews the Australian technology and communications sector post the February reporting season and, while most companies posted efficiency gains, consensus cost forecasts were raised (with many efficiency plans failing to deliver cuts) and many companies announcing plans for cost-outs.

The broker says FY23 upgrades and downgrades were fairly evenly split with WiseTech Global ((WTC)) the leader, and Fineos Corp ((FCL)) the laggard, but observes greater revenue downgrades for FY24. 

Citi expects the outllook for the sector will continue to be dominated by global interest rate movements but believes yields are likely to top-out soon, easing the pressure somewhat, and expects investors will switch their focus to durable growth.

The broker assesses Altium's guidance may be conservative, and considers the company's result to be broadly positive, observing strong growth in average revenue per subscriber and margin expansion.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $39.75 from $37.60.

Target price is $39.75 Current Price is $37.10 Difference: $2.65
If ALU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.14, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APX as Sell (5) -

Citi reviews the Australian technology and communications sector post the February reporting season and, while most companies posted efficiency gains, consensus cost forecasts were raised (with many efficiency plans failing to deliver cuts) and many companies announcing plans for cost-outs.

The broker says FY23 upgrades and downgrades were fairly evenly split with WiseTech Global ((WTC)) the leader, and Fineos Corp ((FCL)) the laggard, but observes greater revenue downgrades for FY24. 

Citi expects the outllook for the sector will continue to be dominated by global interest rate movements but believes yields are likely to top-out soon, easing the pressure somewhat, and expects investors will switch their focus to durable growth.

Citi assesses Appen's result to be negative on balance. While it appreciates the jump in client wins and enterprise growth, it observes that Appen is sharply lagging its closest peer, Telus International.

Sell rating retained. Target price falls to $2 from $2.30.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If APX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting downside of -17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley lowers its forecast for Computershare's FY24 margin income after taking into account recent global financial instability and interest rate moves.

The target falls to $22.60 from $25.20. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-line.

The broker points out the company has options to reduce the impact of lower rates. For example, interest rate hedging may be undertaken or the company's business mix can be altered.

Target price is $22.60 Current Price is $20.55 Difference: $2.05
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.35, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CRN as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on the ASX’s largest pure-play coking coal miner Coronado Global Resources with a Hold rating and $1.70 target price. It's felt the stock can re-rate as growth targets are achieved and margins steadily improve.

The company is also the fourth largest coking coal producer in the world and owns three mines, Curragh in Australia, as well as Buchanan and Logan in the US.

The broker points out long mine lives underpin organic growth plans though margins are weighed down by legacy contracts which supress upside leverage to the met coal price.

Higher margins should result from expanded production over the next three years, especially at Curragh, which has an unattractive current supply agreement with a local utility, explain the analysts.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.04
If CRN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 28.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has assessed the implications of improved immunoglobulin (Ig) yields for CSL (the good stuff they get out of plasma collection). The analysis highlights upside to gross profit and margins, with a reduced number of collection centres to meet Ig demand.

For CSL, the broker sees this as presenting potential upside to earnings growth over the medium-longer term.

CSL's growth outlook is favourable, Macquarie attests, supported by a base business recovery, earnings from Vifor, the recent approval of Hemgenix and potential contributions from garadacimab. Outperform and $344 target retained.

Target price is $344.00 Current Price is $284.99 Difference: $59.01
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $335.99, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CXO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains constructive on the lithium market outlook despite near-term headwinds from lower lithium prices and slow EV sales. The broker has lowered its short-term price forecasts but upgraded its long-term outlook, underpinned by higher operating and development costs.

This results in earnings forecast and target price adjustments across lithium miners under coverage. Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals are the broker's preferred picks.

Core Lithium's target falls to $1.10 from $1.30, Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.28
If CXO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.97, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DHG as Buy (1) -

Citi reviews the Australian technology and communications sector post the February reporting season and, while most companies posted efficiency gains, consensus cost forecasts were raised (with many efficiency plans failing to deliver cuts) and many companies announcing plans for cost-outs.

The broker says FY23 upgrades and downgrades were fairly evenly split with WiseTech Global ((WTC)) the leader, and Fineos Corp ((FCL)) the laggard, but observes greater revenue downgrades for FY24. 

Citi expects the outllook for the sector will continue to be dominated by global interest rate movements but believes yields are likely to top-out soon, easing the pressure somewhat, and expects investors will switch their focus to durable growth.

Domain Holdings Australia's December-half result slightly outpaced, but the broker believes weakness in Realbase reveals potentially poor acquisition timing. 

Buy rating and $4 target price retained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: $0.74
If DHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FCL as Downgrade to Neutral, High Risk from Neutral (3) -

Citi reviews the Australian technology and communications sector post the February reporting season and, while most companies posted efficiency gains, consensus cost forecasts were raised (with many efficiency plans failing to deliver cuts) and many companies announcing plans for cost-outs.

The broker says FY23 upgrades and downgrades were fairly evenly split with WiseTech Global ((WTC)) the leader, and Fineos Corp ((FCL)) the laggard, but observes greater revenue downgrades for FY24. 

Citi expects the outllook for the sector will continue to be dominated by global interest rate movements but believes yields are likely to top-out soon, easing the pressure somewhat, and expects investors will switch their focus to durable growth.

Citi doubles down on its negative view of Fineos Corp. While the broker appreciates the company's strong subscription revenue, repeated guidance downgrades and hefty cash burns have now raised the likelihood of a capital raising. The broker now assumes a $50m raising in the December half.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral, High Risk, from Neutral. Target price slumps to $1.39 from from $2.50. This compares with a Buy rating and $4 target price on February 28, pointing to a rapid decline in Fineos' outlook.

Target price is $1.39 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.22
If FCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GL1 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains constructive on the lithium market outlook despite near-term headwinds from lower lithium prices and slow EV sales. The broker has lowered its short-term price forecasts but upgraded its long-term outlook, underpinned by higher operating and development costs.

This results in earnings forecast and target price adjustments across lithium miners under coverage. Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals are the broker's preferred picks.

Global Lithium Resources' target falls to $2.20 from $3.60, Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $1.06
If GL1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GLN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains constructive on the lithium market outlook despite near-term headwinds from lower lithium prices and slow EV sales. The broker has lowered its short-term price forecasts but upgraded its long-term outlook, underpinned by higher operating and development costs.

This results in earnings forecast and target price adjustments across lithium miners under coverage. Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals are the broker's preferred picks.

Outperform and $1.90 target retained for Galan Lithium.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.9
If GLN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Citi reviews the Australian technology and communications sector post the February reporting season and, while most companies posted efficiency gains, consensus cost forecasts were raised (with many efficiency plans failing to deliver cuts) and many companies announcing plans for cost-outs.

The broker says FY23 upgrades and downgrades were fairly evenly split with WiseTech Global ((WTC)) the leader, and Fineos Corp ((FCL)) the laggard, but observes greater revenue downgrades for FY24. 

Citi expects the outllook for the sector will continue to be dominated by global interest rate movements but believes yields are likely to top-out soon, easing the pressure somewhat, and expects investors will switch their focus to durable growth.

Observing Hub24's December-half result, Citi appreciates the company's platform revenue margin expansion and cash balance, but suspects margins may have topped out, particularly given higher than forecast growth in platform costs (up -30% year on year) due to staff hires.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $31.75 from $32.10.

Target price is $31.75 Current Price is $28.24 Difference: $3.51
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.21, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains constructive on the lithium market outlook despite near-term headwinds from lower lithium prices and slow EV sales. The broker has lowered its short-term price forecasts but upgraded its long-term outlook, underpinned by higher operating and development costs.

This results in earnings forecast and target price adjustments across lithium miners under coverage. Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals are the broker's preferred picks.

Outperform and $20 target retained for IGO.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $12.00 Difference: $8
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.17, suggesting upside of 33.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett considerds the sale of Incitec Pivot's Waggaman ammonia manufacturing facility for US$1.7bn is value-neutral and retains its $3.50 target price. The Hold rating is unchanged.

The company has also secured a 25-year ammonia supply agreement with the purchaser of Waggaman at producer cost, which is valued at around -US425m. Net cash proceeds will be around US$837m, after also allowing for tax.

As a result of the supply agreement, the analyst notes a reduced commodity exposure for Incitec, and the sale transaction will also allow a greater focus on the explosives business.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.26
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.94, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPL as Buy (1) -

After allowing for tax and an offtake agreement with the purchaser, Incitec Pivot will receive $1.25bn in cash for the sale of the WALA ammonia plant in the US.

Long-term ammonia supply was secured at producer cost via the offtake agreement, explains UBS.

The impact of the sale, according to the broker, is a reduction in ammonia price exposure, lower operational risk, all while retaining the strategic benefit of low-cost ammonia for ammonium nitrate manufacture.

Upon completion, UBS points out the sale moves Incitec Pivot into a net cash position and supports demerger and capital management plans.

The target falls to $3.60 from $4.40. Buy.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.36
If IPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.94, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

Despite recent market concerns, Morgan Stanley feels gearing levels at Lendlease Group are manageable.

Looking out three years, the analysts forecast gearing of around 16.6% despite funding requirements for US Build to Rent, Barangaroo, Van Ness (California) and the Exchange TRX in Malaysia.

The Equal-weight rating and $9.50 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.24 Difference: $2.26
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.71, suggesting upside of 46.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains constructive on the lithium market outlook despite near-term headwinds from lower lithium prices and slow EV sales. The broker has lowered its short-term price forecasts but upgraded its long-term outlook, underpinned by higher operating and development costs.

This results in earnings forecast and target price adjustments across lithium miners under coverage. Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals are the broker's preferred picks.

Leo Lithium's target rises to $1.50 from $1.35, Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $1.05
If LLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 233% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains constructive on the lithium market outlook despite near-term headwinds from lower lithium prices and slow EV sales. The broker has lowered its short-term price forecasts but upgraded its long-term outlook, underpinned by higher operating and development costs.

This results in earnings forecast and target price adjustments across lithium miners under coverage. Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals are the broker's preferred picks.

Liontown Resources' target rises to $2.70 from $2.60, Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $1.2
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.02, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MCR as Neutral (3) -

Wyloo Consolidated Investments has offered to acquire all of the shares in Mincor Resources through an unconditional on-market cash bid, for a price of $1.40 per share. The share offer was a 35% premium to the last closing price and the offer values Mincor at some $760m.

Macquarie suggests Wyloo’s takeover bid is well timed and has come at a time when Mincor’s share price performance has been suppressed over the last month or so, and notes Wyloo has a track record of M&A in the nickel space.

A potential counterparty bid or an increased bid from Wyloo could provide upside risk to the broker's base case. Target rises to $1.50 from $1.37, Neutral retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.48 Difference: $0.02
If MCR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains constructive on the lithium market outlook despite near-term headwinds from lower lithium prices and slow EV sales. The broker has lowered its short-term price forecasts but upgraded its long-term outlook, underpinned by higher operating and development costs.

This results in earnings forecast and target price adjustments across lithium miners under coverage. Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals are the broker's preferred picks.

Mineral Resources' target rises to $125 from $124, Outperform retained.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $77.49 Difference: $47.51
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $95.76, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Neutral (3) -

Citi reviews the Australian technology and communications sector post the February reporting season and, while most companies posted efficiency gains, consensus cost forecasts were raised (with many efficiency plans failing to deliver cuts) and many companies announcing plans for cost-outs.

The broker says FY23 upgrades and downgrades were fairly evenly split with WiseTech Global ((WTC)) the leader, and Fineos Corp ((FCL)) the laggard, but observes greater revenue downgrades for FY24. 

Citi expects the outllook for the sector will continue to be dominated by global interest rate movements but believes yields are likely to top-out soon, easing the pressure somewhat, and expects investors will switch their focus to durable growth.

Observing Megaport's December-half result, Citi appreciates the company's margin expansion and cost control and expects margins will further improve as management cuts an extra -$8m to -$10m in overheads and repricing benefits flow through.

But weaker customer growth has overshadowed operational improvements and markets will be awaiting movement on this front before re-rating, suggests the broker.

Neutral rating and $7.05 target price retained.

Target price is $7.05 Current Price is $4.31 Difference: $2.74
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting upside of 94.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHC as Neutral (3) -

New Hope's December-half earnings missed consensus but met Citi's forecasts and earnings (EBITDA) guidance.

Dividends proved the big miss at 40c a share but net cash outpaced.

The broker expects mining to begin at New Acland by June and first coal shipments by September and expects an increase in unit costs at Bengalla, as the company pushes to make up for poor weather.

Meanwhile, the company has bought back $129m in senior convertible notes and $31.3m of shares.

Neutral rating retained. Target price eases to $4.80 from $4.90.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NHC as Outperform (1) -

New Hope's December-half result broadly met Credit Suisse's forecasts but the dividend sharply disappointed consensus forecasts.

The company's $300m share buyback stalled at $31m, management opting instead to buy back convertible notes, and is now likely to return its focus to the shares, advises Credit Suisse.

Meanwhile, New Hope plans to invest -$200m in Bengall over the next two years and -$384m in the Acland ramp up (first shipment is on schedule for the September quarter), and the broker believes this will unlock strong profits over the medium to long term.

Citi is positive on the coal price, despite near term weakness arising from a mild European winter, the broker saying the signs are pointing to a bottom in the not-too-distant future.

Outperform rating retained. Target price eases to $5.70 from $5.80.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: $0.38
If NHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Outperform (1) -

New Hope Corp reported first half results largely in line with Macquarie's expectations, while the dividend was -23% weaker than expected, despite a special dividend. New Hope bought back shares and convertible notes in the period.

The company continues to generate strong cash flow at current coal prices and has highlighted organic growth paths and potential for M&A. A thermal coal price recovery is a key catalyst in the near to medium term.

Bengalla continues to impress the broker and remains strong operationally, and there is upside from New Acland Stage 3.

Outperform and $6 target retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: $0.68
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHC as Add (1) -

While New Hope's 1H results were pre-reported, the 40cps interim dividend (ordinary 30cps and special 10cps) fell short of the 54cps expected by consenus. The company is assessing inorganic growth options, according to Morgans.

Management will be more conservative than peers on any acquisitions, resulting in large capital returns to shareholders over time, believes the analyst.

The target drops to $6.35 from $6.65 partly due to the broker's lower assumed price realisations.

The Add rating is retained, with Morgans suggesting the market is not factoring-in material cash flow contributions from the ongoing expansion at Bengalla and the late-2023 ramp-up at Acland.

Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: $1.03
If NHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Citi reviews the Australian technology and communications sector post the February reporting season and, while most companies posted efficiency gains, consensus cost forecasts were raised (with many efficiency plans failing to deliver cuts) and many companies announcing plans for cost-outs.

The broker says FY23 upgrades and downgrades were fairly evenly split with WiseTech Global ((WTC)) the leader, and Fineos Corp ((FCL)) the laggard, but observes greater revenue downgrades for FY24. 

Citi expects the outllook for the sector will continue to be dominated by global interest rate movements but believes yields are likely to top-out soon, easing the pressure somewhat, and expects investors will switch their focus to durable growth.

Observing the December-half result, Citi appreciate's the companies expansion in revenue margins (the first since its IPO), and expects this to continue but advises near-term flows remain vulnerable, with net flows falling sharply in the half, threatening guidance.

Neutral rating retained after a recent downgrade from Buy. Target price falls to $10 from $14.25.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $13.11 Difference: minus $3.11 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.28, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Citi reviews the Australian technology and communications sector post the February reporting season and, while most companies posted efficiency gains, consensus cost forecasts were raised (with many efficiency plans failing to deliver cuts) and many companies announcing plans for cost-outs.

The broker says FY23 upgrades and downgrades were fairly evenly split with WiseTech Global ((WTC)) the leader, and Fineos Corp ((FCL)) the laggard, but observes greater revenue downgrades for FY24. 

Citi expects the outllook for the sector will continue to be dominated by global interest rate movements but believes yields are likely to top-out soon, easing the pressure somewhat, and expects investors will switch their focus to durable growth.

Observing NextDC's December half, Citi appreciates the company's strong revenue (buoyed by strong billing utilisation and CPI price links), and falling cost profile. On the downside, bookings disappointed, particularly out of Melbourne. Still, EPS targets turn negative.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $12.70 from $12.60.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $10.08 Difference: $2.62
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.10, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Orica reiterated growth guidance at its trading update with momentum from FY22 continuing in the first half, and expects “better underlying earnings” in the first half year on year.

At its November result last year, Orica guided to FY23 earnings growth over FY22 driven by robust global commodities demand, increased contribution from new technologies and commercial discipline, Macquarie notes, and Orica’s share price is generally resilient in times of volatility.

Neutral and $16 target retained.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $15.05 Difference: $0.95
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.25, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains constructive on the lithium market outlook despite near-term headwinds from lower lithium prices and slow EV sales. The broker has lowered its short-term price forecasts but upgraded its long-term outlook, underpinned by higher operating and development costs.

This results in earnings forecast and target price adjustments across lithium miners under coverage. Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals are the broker's preferred picks.

Piedmont Lithium's target falls to $1.80 from $2.10, Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $1.02
If PLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains constructive on the lithium market outlook despite near-term headwinds from lower lithium prices and slow EV sales. The broker has lowered its short-term price forecasts but upgraded its long-term outlook, underpinned by higher operating and development costs.

This results in earnings forecast and target price adjustments across lithium miners under coverage. Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals are the broker's preferred picks.

Pilbara Minerals' target falls to $7.50 from $7.70, Outperform retained.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $3.98
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 113% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting upside of 41.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains constructive on the lithium market outlook despite near-term headwinds from lower lithium prices and slow EV sales. The broker has lowered its short-term price forecasts but upgraded its long-term outlook, underpinned by higher operating and development costs.

This results in earnings forecast and target price adjustments across lithium miners under coverage. Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals are the broker's preferred picks.

Patriot Battery Metals' target rises to $1.80 from $1.75, Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.695
If PMT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse examines the Lender's Mortgage Insurance market given the deterioration in housing and interest rate markets.

All up, the broker considers QBE Insurance's risks to be manageable, observing LMI represented roughly 10% of the company's net profit after tax (NPAT) but only 0.7% of net earned premium. Given the market expects strong NPAT growth in FY23, the broker calculates that LMI's percentage of NPAT should fall to single digits.

Add to that 50% quota share deals since 2021 and the broker is reasonably assured.

Still, the broker says the risk remains to the downside and much depends on the macro environment, particularly unemployment and housing dynamics.

Outperform rating and $18.70 target price retained.

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $13.87 Difference: $4.83
If QBE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.49, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

Citi reviews the Australian technology and communications sector post the February reporting season and, while most companies posted efficiency gains, consensus cost forecasts were raised (with many efficiency plans failing to deliver cuts) and many companies announcing plans for cost-outs.

The broker says FY23 upgrades and downgrades were fairly evenly split with WiseTech Global ((WTC)) the leader, and Fineos Corp ((FCL)) the laggard, but observes greater revenue downgrades for FY24. 

Citi expects the outllook for the sector will continue to be dominated by global interest rate movements but believes yields are likely to top-out soon, easing the pressure somewhat, and expects investors will switch their focus to durable growth.

Observing REA Group's December-half result, Citi appreciates the company's revenue growth as price increases more than offset a sharp decline in listings.

The broker found the performance of the company's Financial services business, which underperformed rivals, less impressive but sheets this back potentially to the digestion of Mortgage Choice.

Buy rating and $141.30 target price retained.

Target price is $141.30 Current Price is $133.83 Difference: $7.47
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $120.47, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

Citi reviews the Australian technology and communications sector post the February reporting season and, while most companies posted efficiency gains, consensus cost forecasts were raised (with many efficiency plans failing to deliver cuts) and many companies announcing plans for cost-outs.

The broker says FY23 upgrades and downgrades were fairly evenly split with WiseTech Global ((WTC)) the leader, and Fineos Corp ((FCL)) the laggard, but observes greater revenue downgrades for FY24. 

Citi expects the outllook for the sector will continue to be dominated by global interest rate movements but believes yields are likely to top-out soon, easing the pressure somewhat, and expects investors will switch their focus to durable growth.

Observing SiteMinder's December-half result, Citi appreciates the impact of the company's slowing cash burn and rising growth on margins, and expects the company's strong cost-cuts to continue.

Meanwhile, average revenue per unit rose sharply and the broker spies continued strong growth based on management's June-half trading update.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $4.80 from $5.20.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $1.79
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.27, suggesting upside of 71.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SHV as Buy (1) -

The nonpareil almond crop, which constitutes around 50% of Select Harvests' overall crop, has been impacted by a poor bloom period and wet growing conditions in 2022, explains UBS.

As a result of these woes, management has cut its volume forecast to -25-35% below the consensus expectation.

The broker conservatively assumes the balance of the crop (pollinator varieties) will suffer a similar volume impact and lowers its target to $4.90 from $5.05.

Management noted improving prices and is expecting $7.25-7.70/kg for FY23, above the $6.80 received in FY22. Buy.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.85
If SHV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SMR as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on pure-play met coal miner Stanmore Resources with a Buy rating. It's thought the balance sheet will support substantial annual dividends over the next three years.

The $4.40 target price and US32c dividend for FY23 suggests to the broker a total shareholder return of 55% over 12 months.

The company fully-owns and operates three mines in the Bowen Basin in QLD: Isaac Plains, South Walker Creek and Poitrel, with the latter two acquired from BHP Group ((BHP)) in May-2022.

Synergies and optimisation of these BHP assets are expected to drive material cash flow, and the analysts forecast net cash of
US$224m by June 2023.

Ord Minnett prefers Stanmore Resources in the met coal space due to high margins and operating leverage.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.21 Difference: $1.19
If SMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains constructive on the lithium market outlook despite near-term headwinds from lower lithium prices and slow EV sales. The broker has lowered its short-term price forecasts but upgraded its long-term outlook, underpinned by higher operating and development costs.

This results in earnings forecast and target price adjustments across lithium miners under coverage. Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals are the broker's preferred picks.

Sayona Mining's target falls to 28c from 30c, Outperform retained.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.075
If SYA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TUA as Overweight (1) -

First half results for Tuas are due tomorrow and Morgan Stanley believes a positive Tuas/Simba broadband announcement may be made, which is not currently factored into the current share price.

The broker points out expressions of interest for a highly competitive plan (versus peers) has been appearing on the company's website.

Under a couple of scenarios, the analysts suggest the share price either remains range bound between $1.20-1.35 or re-rates to a $1.35-1.50 range.

The Overweight rating and $2.00 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.7
If TUA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Neutral (3) -

Citi reviews the Australian technology and communications sector post the February reporting season and, while most companies posted efficiency gains, consensus cost forecasts were raised (with many efficiency plans failing to deliver cuts) and many companies announcing plans for cost-outs.

The broker says FY23 upgrades and downgrades were fairly evenly split with WiseTech Global ((WTC)) the leader, and Fineos Corp ((FCL)) the laggard, but observes greater revenue downgrades for FY24. 

Citi expects the outllook for the sector will continue to be dominated by global interest rate movements but believes yields are likely to top-out soon, easing the pressure somewhat, and expects investors will switch their focus to durable growth.

Observing WiseTech Global's December-half result, Citi appreciates the sharp jump in CargoWise's revenue, which proved to be more than a 30% beat on guidance, thanks to rollouts and price upgrades.

Management has guided to extremely strong FY23 growth, but the broker expects much of this to be struck on acquisitions and would like to see a recovery in organic growth. Meanwhile, softer listings suggest tougher comps and limits on price increases.

Neutral rating and $64.10 target price retained.

Target price is $64.10 Current Price is $62.54 Difference: $1.56
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.68, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ZIP as Sell (5) -

Citi reviews the Australian technology and communications sector post the February reporting season and, while most companies posted efficiency gains, consensus cost forecasts were raised (with many efficiency plans failing to deliver cuts) and many companies announcing plans for cost-outs.

The broker says FY23 upgrades and downgrades were fairly evenly split with WiseTech Global ((WTC)) the leader, and Fineos Corp ((FCL)) the laggard, but observes greater revenue downgrades for FY24. 

Citi expects the outlook for the sector will continue to be dominated by global interest rate movements but believes yields are likely to top-out soon, easing the pressure somewhat, and expects investors will switch their focus to durable growth.

Observing Zip Co's December-half result, Citi appreciates the rise in the company's group cash transaction margins and slight reduction in debt, but this does not begin to outweigh the balance sheet concerns, and the fact that Zip's auditors flagged doubts as to whether the company could continue to operate as a going concern.

The broker spies ongoing risk from credit defaults as interest rates take their toll alongside funding risks related to the recent global banking debacle.

Sell, High Risk rating retained. Target price falls to 47c from 66c.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources