Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett expects a strong reporting season for the major banks, excluding lower markets income, with higher net interest margins (NIM) and write-backs of provisions. Also, higher dividends and capital positions well above minimum requirements are expected.

Critical to share price performance is the extent to which NIM resilience will continue into the second half, and whether the emergence from covid will allow harder cost cuts, explains the broker.

For ANZ Bank, the analyst forecasts a first half cash net profit of $3.177bn, up 35% half-on-half, and an interim dividend of 70cps, representing a 63% payout ratio. Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating with a target of $30.40. Result due on Wednesday May 5.

Target price is $30.40 Current Price is $28.94 Difference: $1.46
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.09, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BEX as Add (1) -

Third quarter total transaction value (TTV) growth of 220% on the pcp was driven by a standout performance in Europe. The Speculative Buy rating and $0.34 target are maintained. 

Year-to-date TTV growth of 154% shows the broker signs of the e-commerce strategy bearing fruit. Growth in third quarter e-commerce transactions was almost double traffic growth, which shows improved traffic conversion, explains the analyst. 

Morgans highlights a 14% increase in active subscriber (retailer) numbers after a period of decline. The addition of retailers to the network is considered paramount.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.13
If BEX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Beach Energy reported production of 5.9mmboe, down -5% over last quarter and -16% below Ord Minnett's forecast. In an initial response, Ord Minnett notes the difference stems primarily from lower crude oil production following issues at the Western Flank of the Cooper Basin.

Total sales volumes of 6.2mmboe were above production but well below the broker's previous forecast and contributed to revenue missing the mark by -6%.

The issues at the Beach’s Western Flank asset appear more serious than expected with the company downgrading its full-year production guidance and withdrawing its 5-year outlook.

The broker retains Buy with a target of $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.52
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.04, suggesting upside of 59.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CCP as Outperform (1) -

Credit Corp has confirmed sales volumes remain some -50% below pre-void levels in A&NZ and the US, with stimulus and forbearance delaying improvement. However, there are indications of a volume recovery underway, the broker notes.

The company has reiterated earnings and dividend guidance, in line with the broker's forecast. Given a dominant position in A&NZ, and growth in the US, the broker believes Credit Corp is well positioned to outperform.

Outperform and $34.80 target retained.

Target price is $34.80 Current Price is $29.66 Difference: $5.14
If CCP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.45, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Outperform (1) -

Champion Iron's March quarter production exceeded forecasts and the miner has produced above nameplate capacity despite covid interruptions, the broker notes. Bloom Lake 2 expansion has been approved and the Kami acquisition has been finalised.

As always, current iron ore spot prices are well above the broker's forecast suggesting substantial earnings upside potential. Outperform retained, target rises to $8.00 from $7.00.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.86 Difference: $1.14
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DCN as Underperform (5) -

While expected to be the low point, March quarter production for Dacian Gold still missed the broker's forecast. Costs were 12% higher. Dacian has maintained FY production and cost guidance, but the broker's production forecast is at the low end.

The miner did finish the quarter with more cash than expected, but given Dacian's strong leverage to gold prices and the broker's muted gold price outlook, Underperform and 33c target retained.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If DCN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Two new client contract wins in the US and A&NZ were announced by Fineos Corp in the March quarter and the migration of existing clients to the cloud continued, the broker notes. FY21 revenue is on track to exceed the upper end of the guidance range.

Subscription revenue growth is on track for targeted 30% ahead of the Limelight acquisition being accounted for. The broker retains Outperform and a $4.63 target.

Target price is $4.63 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.73
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.51, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FCL as Hold (3) -

In a third quarter update, management reiterated the FY21 guidance range and noted they are on track to achieving its top end. Ord Minnett notes the second consecutive quarter of shrinking cash receipts. Cash receipts were down -6% versus the prior quarter.

The Hold rating and $4.10 target are maintained. The broker remains focused on the company's ability to win and expand insurance clients, particularly in the US.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.2
If FCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.51, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FDV as Add (1) -

The first quarter update shows Morgans the benefits of diversification, with civil unrest in Myanmar decimating the performance of two businesses. Most other portfolio companies are continuing their recovery from covid, explains the broker.

The analyst highlights the positive margin performance of Zameen and to a lesser extent Infocasas. This is considered to illustrate the underlying potential of the portfolio once a leading market position is established. Add rating and the target decreases to $1.61 from $1.63.

Target price is $1.61 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $0.2
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

While Fortescue Metals Group’s cost and production guidance for FY21 was unchanged, capex guidance was raised US$100m-$300m with Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) capital costs representing $100m of the increase.

March quarter shipments at 42.3mt were marginally lower than Citi expectations.

During the March quarter, Fortescue issued $1.5bn of Senior Unsecured Notes at an interest rate of 4.375% with April 2031 maturity. Use of proceeds include the refinance of 4.75% notes due 2022 and the 5.125% notes due 2023.

While very high iron ore prices mean higher revenue for Fortescue, Citi believes the investor base is increasingly nervous about a step down in iron ore prices.

Neutral rating with a $21 target price both unchanged.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $22.58 Difference: minus $1.58 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.43, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Fortescue Metals Group's shipments at 42.3mt were lower than the 44.6mt that Credit Suisse predicted. The shipments were down -9% over last quarter primarily due to heavy rains while costs were 16% higher than expected.

Both the production and cost budget for FY21 remain unchanged. Credit Suisse notes March quarter price realisation was 86% and reduces its June quarter realisation forecast to 85% from 88%. 

Outperform rating with the target dropping to $23 from $23.50.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $22.58 Difference: $0.42
If FMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.43, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

A solid March quarter for Fortescue Metals was in line with the broker's forecasts. Price reaslisations were lower than expected, which was largely due to variances in product mix. Increased capex guidance was as anticipated.

Elevated iron ore spot prices ensure earnings upside momentum, with the broker noting free cash flow yields of 15% and 20% in FY21-22 at current spot. Outperform and $23 target retained.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $22.58 Difference: $0.42
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.43, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Fortescue Metals Group's revenue realisation at 86% in the third quarter was -5% less than Morgan Stanley expected. The miner's production was in line with Morgan Stanley's forecast although shipments were -5% weaker, showing a small inventory build.

The company will need to ship 49.5mt in the last quarter to meet the broker's shipment forecast for the year. The group now expects the Iron Bridge Project in 14 weeks instead of 12 weeks.

Underweight and $16.10 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $22.58 Difference: minus $6.48 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.43, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Hold (3) -

According to Morgans, positives from the third quarter included shipments of 42mt and a bumper realised price of US$143/dmt, up 17% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).

Negatives included C1 costs jumping to US$14.9/wmt, up 16% QoQ and FY21 capex guidance was lifted to US$3.5-$3.7bn from US$3.0-$3.4bn.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target price is decreased to $20.90 from $21.20. The analyst remains concerned we may be near/at peak positivity

Target price is $20.90 Current Price is $22.58 Difference: minus $1.68 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.43, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Buy (1) -

In the wake of the third quarter production report, Ord Minnett identifies cost pressures are emerging, which is consistent with mining peers. Cash (C1) costs were above the broker's forecast due to lower production and Australian dollar strength.

The company shipped 42.3Mt of iron ore (at a 172Mtpa rate), which was -3% below the analyst's estimate, while the achieved price of US$143/t was within 1% of the estimate. Average revenue was a -14% discount to benchmark prices.

FY21 capital expenditure guidance was raised to -US$3.5–3.7bn due to the Australian dollar strength, the Iron Bridge project, and Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) initiatives. The Buy rating is maintained and the target reduced to $28 from $29.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $22.58 Difference: $5.42
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.43, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Fortescue Metals Group's March quarter shipments were flat over last year at 42mt and in-line with UBS's forecast. While shipment and cost guidance remains unchanged, Fortescue Metals has lifted its capex forecast by circa US$200m.

UBS notes the miner is benefiting from high iron ore prices and expects prices to fall to circa US$100/t by 2021 end and to about US$75/t by 2023-end as Brazilian supply recovers, China demand softens and inventories build.

In the broker's view, strong China pig iron production and high global steel prices currently underpin iron ore. 

Neutral with a target of $18.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $22.58 Difference: minus $4.58 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.43, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOZ as Neutral (3) -

Leasing and minimal covid impact are the key drivers of a 1% upgrade to Growthpoint Properties' earnings guidance, the broker notes, with portfolio occupancy now 96%. A strong balance sheet suggests plenty of M&A capacity.

But while the cashflow outlook is positive, the REIT's FY22 dividend yield is limited compared to peers and the broker sees the stock as fairly valued. Target rises to $3.48 from $3.22, Neutral retained.

Target price is $3.48 Current Price is $3.71 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If GOZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.51, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Underweight (5) -

GPT Group's first quarter update has leasing spreads at -9%, which is an incremental improvement on the -14% reported at FY20. Rent collection was 105% of net billings although the group is offering rent relief at its Melbourne Central asset.

On the flip side Melbourne Central hasn't recovered, cautions the broker, and office occupancy is expected to decline in June.  

The company reaffirmed its FY21 funds from operations growth guidance of 8% and 12% dividend growth. Even so, the broker thinks the result is weak and the group has a number of asset-specific issues versus peers.

Underweight rating and target of $4.37 are retained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $4.37 Current Price is $4.67 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.69, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GPT as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett explains the March-quarter update showed an improvement in the retail segment though softer occupancy rates in office and industrial. It's considered encouraging that management highlighted an improvement in office leasing enquiries during March.

Ord Minnett continues to see the group as a good reopening play that will benefit from a ‘return to normal’ in Melbourne. The Accumulate rating and $5 target price are retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.67 Difference: $0.33
If GPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.69, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IFL as Outperform (1) -

IOOF Holdings reported March quarter funds under management administration of $203.9bn, up 0.7% over last quarter and in line with Credit estimated Suisse's $204.2bn. The result was led by positive markets albeit partially offset by -$4bn in outflows.

The outflows, worse than Credit Suisse expected, were impacted by product restructurings or departing advisers making little contribution to earnings. Excluding these, the outflows were slightly better than expected.

The broker is encouraged by slowing outflows and positive momentum in platform and investment management while also highlighting concerns over when flows could turnaround and where revenue margins will trough.

Credit Suisse assesses there is significant demand for advice and a large opportunity for a firm such as IOOF Holdings. Outperform reiterated. Target is $5.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $1.41
If IFL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as No Rating (-1) -

IOOF Holdings' March quarter showed larger outflows than Morgan Stanely expected with the financial advice segment particularly affected. The overall funds under management growth was in-line with the broker's forecasts given the strong markets.

Morgan Stanley is currently restricted on rating and target. Industry view: In-Line.

Current Price is $3.59. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IFL as Buy (1) -

Funds under management and administration (FUMA) rose $1.5bn in the March quarter, driven largely by positive market movements, explains Ord Minnett.

The broker leaves earnings forecasts unchanged as markets have largely offset a weakness in financial advice flows. It's considered the greatest support for the share price is a low price-earnings ratio and high dividend yield. Buy and $4.10 target retained.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $0.51
If IFL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JBH as Hold (3) -

As expected by Morgan Stanley, February/March sales momentum slowed as the benefits of covid start to be cycled. The Hold rating and $50 target are unchanged.

The broker highlights year-to-date like-for-like sales for JB Australia grew by 20.7%, for NZ by 11% and The Good Guys rose 19.5%. Management noted that it has continued to see heightened customer demand in April-to-date.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $46.22 Difference: $3.78
If JBH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $51.90, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHG as Buy (1) -

While Janus Henderson’s first quarter 2021 net fund outflows increased qoq to -US$3.3bn, the deterioration was impacted by mostly known one-off headwinds such as the un-gating of the UK property fund (-US$0.8bn) and liquidation of four Perkins funds (-US$0.7bn).

After adjusting for these factors, Citi believes Janus is not far off its target of positive net flows ex Intech.

Based on further positives for the investment case, Citi has lifted earnings per share (EPS) FY21 up 4%; FY22 up 1%, FY23 up 0.2%.

While overall investment performance is a little off what Citi would consider to be eminently saleable, ex Intech, it remains respectable in the broker’s view. Although Citi notes, US equities requires further improvement especially in SMID and mid-cap growth.

Buy rating and target price of $48.50 are both unchanged.

Target price is $48.50 Current Price is $42.65 Difference: $5.85
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.85, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHG as Outperform (1) -

Janus Henderson's March quarter result beat the broker across several metrics, boosted by performance fees. Funds outflows were nonetheless experienced, but this follows a bumper prior quarter of inflows, the broker notes.

Valuation remains attractive, the broker suggests, on a discount to the fund manager's five-year average PE multiple, and while Institutional flows remain lumpy, the higher-margin intermediary channel remains positive, with performance fees also likely to support FY21 earnings.

Outperform retained, target rises to $56 from $53.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $42.65 Difference: $13.35
If JHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.85, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHG as Equal-weight (3) -

In Janus Henderson Group's first-quarter update, the net base fee margin was up 0.9bps over last quarter and almost 2bps ahead of Morgan Stanley's expectations.

The broker highlights the second-quarter performance fees are tracking materially up versus the second quarter of the last three years. While not in the broker's forecast, Morgan Stanley concedes the fees will support cashflows.

The restructuring of Perkins Investment Management puts another US$440m at risk for the second quarter, adds Morgan Stanley. 

Equal-weight rating and a target of $46.40. Industry view is In-line. 

Target price is $46.40 Current Price is $42.65 Difference: $3.75
If JHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.85, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Karoon Gas posted March quarter production below expectation given a greater than expected impact from maintenance. Management reshuffling continued, with the broker suggesting this should increase the quality of decision making and risk management.

The Bauna oilfield is highly cash generative at current oil prices and given the broker's positive six-month view on the oil price, Outperform and a $1.70 target are retained.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.43
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting upside of 37.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Overweight (1) -

Karoon Energy's third-quarter results show marginally lower production at 1.14mmboe given 11.5 days of outages. Less downtime is expected in the next quarter. Sales volumes were almost -20% lower than the broker expected due to shipment timing.

Morgan Stanley considers the free cash flow yields (almost 30%) from 2023 onwards attractive. In the broker's view, Karoon Energy continues to offer the most leverage to a rising oil price with circa 100% upside at almost US$65/bbl long-term Brent.

Overweight rating, Attractive industry view. Target is $1.80.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.53
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting upside of 37.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a strong third quarter underlying field performance from Bauna, averaging around 14.5kbopd of oil production (ex-maintenance). The company generated net cash of $40m, with cash reserves increasing to $173m and no debt.

Add rating. The target price increases to $1.80 from $1.70, with the largest impact coming from the positive move in net cash, explains the broker. It's felt Bauna could outperform expectations over the next 12 months, which supports Morgans high conviction.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.53
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting upside of 37.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KLL as Add (1) -

As of 31 March, the 100% owned Beyondie Sulphate of Potash (SOP) project is 85% complete, and the company has re-affirmed it expects to achieve first production in September this year. 

Engineering and design work for the SOP plant is now completed and all key process equipment is on site. At 31 March, cash on hand was $34.2m, with $30.1m of undrawn financing facilities. The Add rating is maintained and the target price is increased to $0.29 from $0.27.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.09
If KLL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

Kathmandu rode a wave of surf retail sales growth in the March quarter, up 37% from the same period in 2019. Surf wholesale channel industry data continue to be positive, in line with the broker's expectations and management’s outlook commentary for Rip Curl.

The broker nevertheless retains Neutral, suggesting strength in Rip Curl and the benefits of Outdoor from the Trans-Tasman bubble are well understood by the market, and CEO resolution remains outstanding. Target unchaged at $1.30.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If KMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.38, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

The FY21 result is set to be released on Friday, 7 May. Ord Minnett forecasts a net profit of $2.967bn versus consensus of $2.94bn, up 9% on FY20. A final dividend of $3.60 is expected. 

The broker sees a likely key driver is a stand-out half for the commodities and global markets (CGM) division, due to the US freeze event and strong underlying market conditions in other commodity products.

Additionally, the non-recurrence of provision top-ups for covid-19 and a rebound in capital recycling gains, including the Nuix ((NXL)) and green energy assets are likely positives. The Accumulate rating is retained and the target price is increased to $165 from $158.

Target price is $165.00 Current Price is $160.52 Difference: $4.48
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $152.38, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett expects a strong reporting season for the major banks, excluding lower markets income, with higher net interest margins (NIM) and write-backs of provisions. Also, higher dividends and capital positions well above minimum requirements are expected.

Critical to share price performance is the extent to which NIM resilience will continue into the second half, and whether the emergence from covid will allow harder cost cuts, explains the broker.

For National Australia Bank, the analyst forecasts a first half cash net profit of $3.174bn, up 59% half-on-half, and an interim dividend of 60cps. Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating with a target of $28.10. Result due on Thursday May 6.

Target price is $28.10 Current Price is $26.77 Difference: $1.33
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.20, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCM as Buy (1) -

Newcrest Mining’s March quarter was better (than DecQ) on costs, and gold production was softer (512koz -4%) than expected, while at 35kt copper was up 1%.

Lihir costs improved 10% quarter-on-quarter to US$1293/oz with lower gold of 183koz (-8%). Production at Cadia was lower after planned mill maintenance, but Citi expects by-product credits to lift another US$250/oz in the June quarter, paving the way for another record quarter.

Newcrest is on track to meet guidance—at the group level at least—of 1.95-2.15Moz.

The broker expects copper to contribute 30% to Newcrest’s June quarter revenue and sees Cadia posting another record negative ASIC.

In Citi’s view, there’s not another gold miner in the broker’s ASX coverage with the scale of organic growth options that Newcrest has.

Citi’s Buy rating is maintained, and the price target decreases to $30.50 from $32.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $27.09 Difference: $3.41
If NCM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.49, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Outperform (1) -

Newcrest Mining's March quarter production levels were solid, observes Credit Suisse who also expects a stronger fourth quarter ahead. Aiding the result were lower than expected costs helped by a strengthening Copper price.

The broker considers the quarter relatively straightforward and firmly on track to achieve its FY21 guidance. Credit Suisse does highlight Lihir's operations remain a drag due to unplanned downtime. On the other hand, Cadia mine operations continue to deliver high quality results.

Outperform retained with a target of $29.60.

Target price is $29.60 Current Price is $27.09 Difference: $2.51
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.49, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as Outperform (1) -

A solid March quarter result from Newcrest was in line with the broker on both production and costs.

Studies being conducted at Cadia and Red Chris and on the cut-back at Lihir are due later this year and should provide greater clarity on the production outlook, the broker suggests, and will potentially be key catalysts.

Outperform retained, target rises to $29.50 from $28.00.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $27.09 Difference: $2.41
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.49, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Overweight (1) -

Two of Newcrest Mining's key assets - Cadia and Lihir mines - did well in the third quarter, observes Morgan Stanley. Guidance metrics for the company remain unchanged for FY21.

Newcrest Mining expects its SAG mill motor replacement in July to take 19 weeks which is 3 weeks less than before. During this time, the asset is expected to produce at 60% capacity, better than the broker's 45% capacity forecast.

Overweight rating and target price of $30.20 maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $30.20 Current Price is $27.09 Difference: $3.11
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.49, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NCM as Add (1) -

After third quarter production results, Morgans maintains an Add rating and increases the target price to $30.95 from $29.98. 

Higher copper revenues supported margins as the gold price softened, explains the broker. The impact of copper credits meant an increase in the all-in-sustaining cost (AISC) margin quarter-on-quarter.

The analyst estimates the Cadia mine will run at around 75% capacity for the first quarter of FY22, due to an estimated 19 week partial mill shut down for repairs.

Target price is $30.95 Current Price is $27.09 Difference: $3.86
If NCM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.49, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Buy (1) -

Newcrest Mining delivered March-quarter production of 514,000oz of gold, 8% above Ord Minnett’s forecast, due to higher grades across all sites.

All-in sustaining costs (AISC) of US$891/oz were in-line with the broker's estimate, highlighted by costs at the Cadia operation of negative -US$160/oz. This demonstrates the value of copper by-product credits, explains the analyst.

Ord Minnett notes positive exploration results continue from both the Red Chris (Canada) and Havieron (WA) drill programs. The Buy rating and $36.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $27.09 Difference: $9.41
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.49, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NTO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley sees Nitro Software tracking very well versus guidance although annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth appears to have slowed versus an exceptional second half.

While no first-quarter ARR was provided, Nitro Software's March ARR was up 66% over last year. This makes the broker think the company is tracking ahead of guidance.

Overweight rating. Target is $3.70. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.46
If NTO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUF as Add (1) -

Morgans forecasts strong earnings growth over FY21-23 driven by improved seasonal conditions in Australia and Europe and reduced supply constraints and cost pressures.

First half results are due on 20 May under the new 30 September financial year end. The broker expects a strong result lead by the A&NZ and the European businesses.

The company is also benefiting from its Performance Improvement Program (PIP) which is lowering the cost base. Add rating and the target price is increased to $6.15 from $5.10.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $5.14 Difference: $1.01
If NUF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PAN as Outperform (1) -

The highlight of Panoramic Resources' March quarter update, the broker notes, was the announced restart of Savannah nickel, with mining to recommence in August and production by December. The key to the restart was funding secured through offtake arrangements.

The restart provides for greater earnings certainty and its funding allows further exploration to be pursued, the broker points out. Outperform retained, target rises to 19c from 18c.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.02
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PAN as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add. However, the target price is increased to $0.18 from $0.16, partly due to positive metal prices. 

Management announced the restart of the Savannah Nickel Mine with forecast costs of $6.36/lb payable nickel, compared to spot pricing over $10/lb. A US$45m loan facility with offtake partner Trafigura fills the funding gap without shareholder dilution, explains the broker.

The analyst sees the use of contractors for mining (and the new equipment they bring) as a big positive for production.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.01
If PAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PBH as Hold (3) -

In Ord Minnett's first look at PointsBet Holding's quarterly update, key metrics are ahead of expectations, with the US a strong outperformer and Australia broadly in-line. The net win margin was better than expected as both countries generated higher margin.

Marketing expenses in the US were high though the resulting increase in active player numbers was well ahead of the analyst's estimates. It's expected consensus revenues will be higher in FY21 though higher marketing costs will likely see slightly lower earnings estimates.

The Hold rating and $15.70 target price are currently under review.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $12.66 Difference: $3.04
If PBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PDL as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse sees downside earnings risk for Pendal Group going into the first half result although consensus around expenses looks optimistic.

With Pendal Group trading above Australian and UK peers, the broker thinks the stock isn’t priced for disappointment. Improving fund performance and flow trends makes the broker feel optimistic and expect flow momentum to continue into the second half of FY21 and into FY22.

Neutral rating with a target of $7.50.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.45 Difference: $0.05
If PDL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.85, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PGH as Neutral (3) -

Pact Group Holdings' packaging division earnings were supported by strong volumes and better efficiency in the face of rising resin costs, observes Credit Suisse. Packaging demand from agriculture, buildings/chemical industry and dairy have been solid, adds the broker.

The broker makes negligible changes to its earnings. Management is targeting 400bps margin improvement by FY25 for the business. The broker notes this margin will come from procurement, process management, labour efficiency, and quality.

Over a full 12 months, Credit Suisse thinks the group would need to pass through $90m in higher resin costs. 

Neutral with the target rising to $3.65 from $2.95.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.61 Difference: $0.04
If PGH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.14, suggesting downside of -13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RHP as Accumulate (2) -

After a third quarter update, Ord Minnett highlights a continuation of the solid momentum from the first half. It's considered the net revenue margin has stabilised over the period and management continues to exercise good cost control.

The company achieved year-to-date revenue of $46.8m, up 15% the pcp. Further operating expense investment has been outlined for the fourth quarter. The broker maintains the Accumulate rating and $2.45 target price.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.6
If RHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Subject to ministerial approval, Regis Resources’ 30% ($903m) non-controlling stake in Tropicana Gold mine is expected to complete on or by 31-May.

Regis is expected to record profit from June with cash flows from April and May offsetting the sale price.

Citi’s net asset value (NAV) lifts from $2.42/sh to $2.60/sh after updating for the low-grade stockpiles and additional pits.

Citi notes, exploration results suggest potential for further open-pit mine life extensions, albeit higher-cost, and should support underground mining for at least 4 years.

Regis targets FY21 production of 355-380kozpa at AISC of $1230-1300/oz.

Citi maintains a Neutral rating and target of $3.40 and notes, the Tropicana price tag and some uncertainty around the timing and cost of McPhillamys may take some time to digest.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.75
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Regis Resources' March quarter gold production fell -11% short of the broker, with costs 6% higher.

The continued ramp-up of the Rosemont underground is a key component to achieving guidance but the broker is modelling production at the bottom end of the range. Government approvals of McPhillamys remain key longer-term and an important catalyst near-term.

Delivery of these milestones would be a key de-risking event but for now, Neutral retained. Target falls to $2.80 from $2.90.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.25
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Overweight (1) -

Regis Resources' production was -5% below Morgan Stanley's forecast Duketon North project 3% higher and Duketon South project (DSO) -8% lower than the broker's estimate. Costs were higher than expected.

Gold year-to-date run-rate of 345koz is below guidance, notes Morgan Stanley, with costs also higher than the guidance. The company remains confident that increased production from Rosemont Underground will help meet the guidance figures.

The Overweight rating and $4.19 target are maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $4.19 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $1.54
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RRL as Hold (3) -

Third quarter production of 85,700oz at an all-in sustaining cost ((AISC) of $1,388 was in-line with Ord Minnett's forecast. A stronger quarter at the Duketon North operation offset a weaker Duketon South result, explains the broker.

The analyst highlights the Final investment decision (FID) remains on track for September 2021 though feels the 18-month construction window is aggressive. Thus, the analyst pushes out estimates for first production to September 2023 and increases capex by 10%.

The Hold rating is maintained. The target price is reduced to $3.10 from $3.40, due to changes in earnings forecasts.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.45
If RRL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RSG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Resolute Mining’s Gold output for the quarter was 85.7koz @ AISC US$1239/oz, a less productive period than the December 2020 (90koz @ US$1002/oz) but within 5% of Citi’s estimates on gold and costs.

Resolute has reaffirmed CY21 guidance of 350-375koz @ US$1200-1275/oz. While only one quarter in, Citi expects 361koz @ US$1215/oz.

Citi believes the valuation disconnect on Resolute Mining’s is due in part to Syama’s inconsistent operational performance, plus the company’s disputed US$70m Malian tax balance and now uncertainty over whether Bibiani can be divested.

Following life of mine (LOM) guidance for Syama and Mako, which Citi believes has reset expectations (i.e Sulphide recoveries of 80%) the broker moves back to Buy from Neutral, but has trimmed the price target $0.70 from $0.75.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.21
If RSG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Resolute Mining's March quarter production was -11% below the broker's forecast and costs 8% higher. FY guidance has nonetheless been retained.

Importantly for the broker, Resolute seems to have regained operational momentum at Syama  sulphides, posting the highest production since 2016. The oxide operation is also expected to improve in the June quarter with an extension of the Tabakoroni pit.

Target unchanged at 60c, rating upgraded to Outperform from Underperform on valuation.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.11
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SZL as Buy (1) -

In an early response, Ord Minnett notes Sezzle provided a strong business update with underlying merchant sales (UMS) for the March quarter up 214% over last year to almost US$375.1m.

The company's income was 19% ahead of the broker due to higher merchant sales and higher fees. Active Customer base grew by almost 16.7% while repeat customer usage grew to 90.7% in the December quarter.

The company intends to file for a US IPO and while the intention seems to be positive, Ord Minnett notes there is no certainty as to structure or timing.

Buy retained. Target is $11.50.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: $2.62
If SZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TSI as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's key takeaway from a third quarter update was March monthly revenue of $2.2m combined with 29% quarter-on-quarter branded sales revenue growth. It's estimated management’s FY21 target of $20m in sales revenue is on track.

The broker now expects the cost profile to be more consistent as the business benefits from the improved revenue run-rate. The company is considered well placed to capitalise on future growth with Ned Whisky and Grainshaker Vodka. Buy rating and $3.03 target are retained.

Target price is $3.03 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.98
If TSI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Equal-weight (3) -

Treasury Wine's March quarter wine exports to China declined by almost -95% but grew 7% ex-China. Unsurprisingly this could offset just 18% of China's lost exports. Morgan Stanley notes export growth to HK was strong.

The broker is of the view that it is too soon to be drawing conclusions on the success or failure of reallocation for either Treasury Wine or Australian producers generally.

Equal-weight maintained. Target is $10. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.17 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.61, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates URW as Sell (5) -

At the March quarter update, no 2021 guidance was given by management, due to a lack of visibility. Lockdowns and restrictions have been “longer and tougher” than originally envisaged by the company, with the impact on 2021 remaining “significant.”

Ord Minnett maintains a Sell rating and $3.70 target. Vacancy in the UK rose to 12.6% and in the US by 13.4%, while continental Europe vacancy also increased, by 50 basis points to 5.4%. The analyst is seeing increasing evidence of difficulty in selling retail assets currently.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: minus $1.58 (current price is over target).
If URW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting downside of -19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WBC as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett expects a strong reporting season for the major banks, excluding lower markets income, with higher net interest margins (NIM) and write-backs of provisions. Also, higher dividends and capital positions well above minimum requirements are expected.

Critical to share price performance is the extent to which NIM resilience will continue into the second half, and whether the emergence from covid will allow harder cost cuts, explains the broker.

For Westpac Bank, the analyst forecasts a first half cash net profit of $3.487bn, more than double second half 2020, and an interim dividend of 60cps. Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating with a target of $25.30. Result due on Monday May 3.

Target price is $25.30 Current Price is $25.19 Difference: $0.11
If WBC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.79, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGX as Outperform (1) -

Westgold Resources' March quarter was mixed, the broker notes, with production below expectation but costs under control. Big Bell’s
ramp-up was impacted by staff shortages but the company notes the extraction of virgin material has commenced.

Big Bell remains the key to the broker's long-term outlook, with expectations of both production growth and reducing capex over the
next year. Outperform and $2.60 target retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.37
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse thinks the market reaction to Woolworths' sales result was a vote on valuation rather than any dissatisfaction with the sales result overall.

The narrowing of sales growth differentials is evidence enough, in the broker's view, to commence a narrowing in the valuation gap between Woolworths and Coles Group ((COL)).

The broker wonders whether Woolworths has the appetite to temporarily reduce its costs over the next several quarters to mitigate a post-covid normalisation of sales revenue. 

The broker retains a Neutral rating with the target dropping to $38.05 from $40.80.

Target price is $38.05 Current Price is $39.81 Difference: minus $1.76 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $42.54, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOW as Outperform (1) -

Comparing Woolworths and its rival's March quarter results to the same period last year is a messy business, given the pandemic hit in the period and led to hoarding. Woolworths comparable sales fell -2.1% in this March quarter, better than Coles' ((COL)) -6.4%, the broker notes.

Liquor sales in April remain elevated but the broker anticipates a slowdown ahead. Big W surprised to the upside, growing sales by 20% in the March quarter, but this too has eased in April. The broker concludes Woolworths has maintained ots strong market share.

Remaining positive ahead of the Endeavour spin-off, the broker retains Outperform and a $44.50 target.

Target price is $44.50 Current Price is $39.81 Difference: $4.69
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.54, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WOW as Overweight (1) -

Woolworths' third-quarter group sales were 1% ahead of Morgan Stanley's forecast with a stronger result from Big W and Hotels. Food like for like growth at -2.1% was in-line with the broker and better than Coles Group ((COL)).

The fourth quarter update points towards some convergence versus Coles Group, suggests the broker. While considering Woolworths to be well-positioned, Morgan Stanley sees better value in Coles.

Overweight retained. Target is $44. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $39.81 Difference: $4.19
If WOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.54, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WOW as Hold (3) -

The third quarter sales trading update was weaker than Morgans expected as the group cycled the surge in demand in the pcp from the onset of covid-19.

Like-for-like sales growth for Australian Food fell by -2.1% and NZ Food by -7.5%, while Endeavour Drinks rose 5.5% and Big W by 20%.

Management said that in general customer shopping behaviour continues to normalise. The Hold rating is maintained and the target price is decreased to $39.70 from $40.65.

Target price is $39.70 Current Price is $39.81 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $42.54, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WTC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights primary drivers of WiseTech Global's almost 20% 3-year revenue compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) as recovery in global freight volumes post covid and global contract wins.

DSV Panalpina, one of WiseTech's largest customers, will acquire its freight forwarding peer - Agility Global Integrated Logistics. Morgan Stanley believes this will have implications for WiseTech and lifts its revenue forecasts for the company by 1% for FY22-23.

In the long term, the broker thinks the market underestimates the upside to WiseTech Global revenues with customers growing via their own M&A.

The price target is increased to $35 from $34. Overweight rating. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $32.18 Difference: $2.82
If WTC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.25, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources