Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates A2M as Lighten (4) -

The company has announced CEO Jayne Hrdlicka will step down immediately and former managing director Geoffrey Babidge will take over the role of interim CEO.

The company has reiterated guidance for FY20 revenue and operating earnings margins, and the board has introduced a medium-term EBITDA margin target of at least 30%.

The CEO has stepped down because of the travel burden which surprises Ord Minnett, as relieving her of other external commercial activities could have eased the burden but this does not appear to have been pursued by the board.

Lighten rating and $12.31 target maintained.

Target price is $12.31 Current Price is $14.40 Difference: minus $2.09 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.16, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates A2M as Buy (1) -

CEO Jayne Hrdlicka will step down immediately and former CEO Geoffrey Babidge will be interim CEO. The company has indicated the new CEO will focus on execution rather than a new strategy.

While the departure of the CEO was a surprise, a low risk of changes to strategy, higher earnings margin targets and a reputable interim CEO provides comfort for UBS.

The company has signalled a first half operating earnings (EBITDA) margin of 31-32% and FY20 margin of 29-30%.

Buy rating reiterated. Target is NZ$17.00.

Current Price is $14.40. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $13.16, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COH as Underperform (5) -

Cochlear's competitors have reported strong recent C1 sales growth, leading the broker to survey 21 US-based audiologists. Cochlear was highlighted as having increased share over the past 3-6 months but with limited impact from the Nucleus Profile Plus.

Macquarie retains Underperform as it sees competition as heightened and not reflected in the share price. Updating A$ assumptions leads to a target increase to $185 from $178.

Target price is $185.00 Current Price is $227.35 Difference: minus $42.35 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $199.24, suggesting downside of -12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EHE as Neutral (3) -

Lower occupancy, competition and revenues generated from daily accommodation payment (DAP) residents have led to lower profitability for Estia Health. From an industry perspective, immediate actions taken by the government in the wake of the Royal Commission are a net negative, Macquarie notes.

Increased funding for home care and the removal of younger residents from facilities will increase occupancy, while the restricted use of sedation will lead to increased wages. The broker retains Neutral on Estia. Target falls to $2.60 from $2.95.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $0.19
If EHE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EHE as Equal-weight (3) -

Occupancy is trending below Morgan Stanley's expectations. Estia Health has lowered operating earnings guidance by -9% and now expects EBITDA on mature homes will be $78-82m versus guidance of $86-90m in August.

This causes a -14% downgrade to the broker's FY20 forecasts for earnings per share. Morgan Stanley lowers the target to $2.40 from $2.60. Equal-weight retained. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If EHE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EHE as Hold (3) -

The latest trading update has served as another reminder of the pressures facing residential aged care providers. The company has experienced a modest drop in occupancy, which Ord Minnett suspects has been provoked by the negative publicity after the interim report from the Royal Commission.

This has led to -8-10% reduction in operating earnings guidance and an even larger reduction in profit guidance. The broker believes the sector faces a protracted period of earnings compression as cost inflation runs ahead of funding growth.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.35 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If EHE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EHE as Neutral (3) -

The company's trading update has flagged pressures on occupancy and revenue headwinds. This suggests to UBS that underlying residential aged care demand is soft in FY20, as operators struggle to maintain occupancy while overall supply expands.

Weaker-than-expected daily revenue growth rates are predominantly being driven by the discounting of both additional service packages and room prices, the broker suggests. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.65 from $3.00.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $0.24
If EHE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IFL as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse assesses the company has delivered almost a 100% increase in underlying net profit over the past decade while operating in the very competitive advice and platform area.

The platform business has experienced around a -20% gross margin decline over the past five years. However, the broker cautions against the simplistic analysis of assuming all platform margins fall to the lowest common denominator immediately.

The current share price implies a -40% PE discount to the market while the historical 0-10% premium range implies 60-75% upside to the current share price, the broker calculates.

Outperform rating and $8.45 target maintained.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $0.6
If IFL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.38, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KLL as Outperform (1) -

Financial close has been reached for Beyondie, allowing Kalium Lakes to draw down German and Australian-backed debt to progress development. Beyondie is developing at "full speed", Macquarie notes, reaching 19% completion to date.

Outperform and 90c target retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.43
If KLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates KMD as Outperform (1) -

Following a short restriction Credit Suisse resumes coverage with an NZ$3.35 target and Outperform rating.

The broker believes the acquisition of Rip Curl is a transformational transaction, as it moves the company to a genuine multi-brand and multi-channel business from a retail business that was largely dominated by a single outdoor brand.

Credit Suisse expects the transaction to be 11% accretive to earnings per share in FY21. However, caution prevails regarding the post-transaction debt levels, given the high operating leverage and late stage of the current economic cycle.

Current Price is $2.92. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LVH as Add (1) -

The company appears to have signed new talent community customers at a slower rate than Morgans assumed in FY20 forecasts. As this is below previous expectations the broker lowers revenue forecasts.

Livehire offers investors participation in growth of a game-changing recruitment system, in the broker's view. Should the company be successful rewards could be substantial.

However, this is an early-stage technology business which is yet to be self-sustaining from a cash-flow perspective. As the stock is high risk, Morgans suggests it should be avoided by investors with a low risk tolerance.

Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.76 from $0.86.

Target price is $0.76 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.53
If LVH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 230% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MMS as Neutral (3) -

The company has guided to FY20 underlying net profit of $83-87m, lower than Credit Suisse expected. However the broker notes that novated lease volumes are actually ahead of last year and the company is experiencing a temporary dilution of margin from investment expenditure relating to the Beyond 2020 program.

The valuation is starting to look attractive and the broker expects improved new car sales in FY21 and margin upside should mean strong growth eventuates. Neutral maintained. Target is $14.50.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $13.40 Difference: $1.1
If MMS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.07, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MMS as Neutral (3) -

McMillan Shakespeare's update highlighted lower interest on the float for Group Remuneration Services of -$3m relative to FY19 is causing a drag, Macquarie notes, despite growth in the customer base. Delays in decisions to invest are causing lower net interest margins on depreciated asset values and reduced end of lease income for A&NZ asset management, despite a largely flat market.

The broker now expects margin risk for the rest of FY20 and question marks regarding the UK and Retail Financial Services are creating a risk overhang. Neutral retained, target falls to $13.30 from $15.64.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $13.40 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If MMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.07, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MMS as Overweight (1) -

The company has guided to $83-87m in net profit for FY20, missing Morgan Stanley's expectations, and cited challenging market conditions. The broker notes Plan Partners was the brightest spot, trading in line with expectations.

Overweight rating. Target is $17.60. In-Line sector view.

Target price is $17.60 Current Price is $13.40 Difference: $4.2
If MMS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.07, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MMS as Hold (3) -

The company's trading update highlights the challenges, with headwinds from soft new car sales and novated yields. The UK asset management business is also affected by the uncertainty relating to the upcoming election.

The company does not assume any improvement in the current growth rates in new car sales in the second half and Ord Minnett considers this prudent. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $12.80 from $15.10.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $13.40 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If MMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.07, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

The federal government has approved a premium rate increase of 3.27% for Medibank Private and Citi lifts estimates for earnings from FY20-22 by 2%. While the outlook is marginally improved the broker still forecasts a gross margin decline.

The broker assesses the company's relatively high existing margins do not appear to be a major factor in the approval of the proposed rate increase. Citi retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $3.35 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.11
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MPL as Underperform (5) -

Medibank Private has been approved for a 3.27% rate increase from April 2020. This is above the average approved industry increase of 2.92%.

Credit Suisse believes the variation between the two supports the theory that scale does not assist health insurers, and also raises questions about the company's focus on market share.

Credit Suisse believes the share price has not pulled back far enough, given the ongoing near-term earnings risk.

Underperform rating and $2.90 target maintained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MPL as Underperform (5) -

The Health Department has announced allowed price rises for health insurance from April. Medibank Private will increase premiums by an average 3.27% and nib Holdings 2.90% against a market average 2.92%.

Announced rates are lower than underlying rates, the broker notes, owing to youth discounts. Underperform and $2.85 target retained for Medibank.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MPL as Sell (5) -

The average approved premium rate rise, to commence April 1 2020, of 2.92% is the lowest in 19 years. Medibank Private achieved a higher outcome of 3.27% despite its stronger profitability. Bupa and HCF also recorded approved increases that were above the average.

As such, UBS suggests sustaining market share could become incrementally challenging for these top three operators. Sell rating maintained. Target rises to $2.80 from $2.75.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley observes the bank continues to lag peers in terms of efficiency. NAB is currently targeting more than $1bn in productivity savings from FY18 to FY20 and is on track to keep underlying costs broadly flat.

However, the broker believes the business requires additional restructuring and investment expenditure. Morgan Stanley now forecasts the bank to raise $3.5bn in capital to fund further transformation, strengthen the balance sheet and cover potential litigation or regulatory action.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight rating and reduces the target to $24.00 from $25.60. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $24.98 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.10, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NHF as Underperform (5) -

Nib Holdings has been approved for a 2.90% rate increase from April 1 2020, in line with the average industry increase of 2.92%. Credit Suisse believes this should provide investors with some comfort that the company is not experiencing the same claims inflation that the larger operators are experiencing.

It also should assist nib Holdings to continue achieving above-system policyholder growth. Still, with guidance for flat earnings growth in FY20, and elevated earnings risk beyond that, Credit Suisse considers the stock expensive and maintains an Underperform rating and target of $5.75.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $6.63 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.56, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

The Health Department has announced allowed price rises for health insurance from April. Medibank Private will increase premiums by an average 3.27% and nib Holdings 2.90% against a market average 2.92%.

Announced rates are lower than underlying rates, the broker notes, owing to youth discounts. Neutral and $7.15 target retained for nib.

Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $6.63 Difference: $0.52
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.56, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NVX as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold (1) -

Morgans upgrades to Speculative Buy from Hold. Target is raised to $0.90 from $0.65. The company has announced an initial deal for 500,000t of synthetic graphite with Samsung, which will take delivery of this order from October 2020 subject to required quality assurance processes and a supplier audit.

 Morgans assesses cash management will be an issue, as first delivery will not take place until the first quarter of FY21 , but the deal makes it easier for the company to raise funds with debt rather than tapping the equity market.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.3
If NVX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses the federal government's allowed premium increases for each private health insurer and the industry are in line with expectations for the majority of Ramsay Health Care's Australian revenue base.

In FY20 the broker assumes 3.5% organic revenue growth in Australian hospitals. Equal-weight rating retained. Target is $61. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $70.42 Difference: minus $9.42 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $68.67, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

The federal government has announced that the average private health insurance premium will increase by 2.92% from April 1 2020. The range is 1.98-5.63%.

UBS assumes Australian hospital price increases of 2.0% for overnight admissions and 1.5% for day cases. This is coupled with volume growth assumptions of 2% and 3%, respectively.

While the average health insurance premium increase is the lowest since 2001, it remains to be seen whether this will slow the current decline in participation, the broker adds. Neutral rating. Target is $71.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $70.42 Difference: $0.58
If RHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $68.67, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RWC as Neutral (3) -

While revenue growth expectations have been under pressure, UBS believes the company's wider offering is helping to mitigate the risk of de-stocking.

The overall strategy remains appealing and the company is no longer the simple, high-growth single-product business it once was. Margins remain strong.

UBS retains a Neutral rating, unsure of whether growth expectations and margins will continue to slow. Target is raised to $3.90 from $3.66.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SWM as Neutral (3) -

The company has effectively sweetened its offer for Prime Media ((PRT)) by consenting to the payment of a 3.0c special dividend. Based on the last close, Credit Suisse calculates this implies an offer price of $0.20 per Prime share.

While risk around the completion of the transaction is significantly reduced, some uncertainty remains. Credit Suisse notes Bruce Gordon, who holds 11.6% of Prime voting shares, has stated he will not support the transaction. Neutral rating and $0.42 target maintained.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.06
If SWM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.46, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates VEA as Neutral (3) -

Retail margins deteriorated in recent months after a brief recovery in September and Credit Suisse suspects refining margins may deteriorate too, following the IMO2020 transition.

The broker acknowledges the lack of precision with respect to earnings forecasts for FY20 but finds the valuation rather unattractive.

A potential sale of the interest in Viva Energy REIT ((VVR)) could be a potential catalyst for capital management. Neutral rating and $1.93 target maintained.

Target price is $1.93 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If VEA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.21, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Overweight (1) -

Viva Energy has softened guidance for operating earnings to $287-290m for 2019. Although expecting a weaker outcome vs 2018, this is lower than Morgan Stanley estimated.

The broker expects further modest declines in profitability in 2020. Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley is confident the retail strategy is starting to take shape and profitability should build in 2020.

While refining margins are difficult to forecast the broker expects them to be higher in 2020. Overweight. Target  is $2.30. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.36
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.21, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VEA as Hold (3) -

The company has guided to underlying net profit of $135-165m, with the mid point around 10% below consensus forecasts. The largest decline in earnings vs 2018 is expected to come from the retail business.

Morgans notes 2019 has been a difficult year for the company and trims estimates in line with guidance. The stock is trading close to the target, raised to $2.15 from $2.06, and the broker maintains a Hold rating.

The main risk to the view, Morgans acknowledges, is the potential for further earnings downside.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.21
If VEA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.21, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Accumulate (2) -

Viva Energy has guided to 2019 operating earnings of $625-655m, below the $770m recorded in 2018 and behind Ord Minnett's estimates. Cost pressures appear difficult to offset despite stronger volumes in 2019.

The broker maintains an Accumulate rating because of the volumes in Coles Express ((COL)), expecting a recovery in refining and retail fuel margins. Target is lowered to $2.15 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.21
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.21, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

2019 guidance for operating earnings (EBITDA) of $371-401m is -15% below UBS estimates. The broker notes the business is, by its nature, volatile and that is reflected in the high PE discount to the market.

However, the company has reported positive aspects including a strong top line, with volumes up 4.3%.

Margin pressure from costs and competition appears to be the main reason why the guidance was much lower than UBS estimated.

While reducing estimates by -11-20% UBS retains a Buy rating, envisaging significant earnings opportunities over the next 2-3 years. Target is reduced to $2.25 from $2.65.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.31
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.21, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse downgrades FY20 estimates for earnings per share by -26% to reflect the company's recent downgrade.

With severe drought in NSW now exacerbated by the challenges in staffing Maules Creek fully, FY20 production guidance has been reduced to 20-22mt and unit costs are expected to be between $73-75/t.

Credit Suisse believes operating and/or commodity price improvement is probably required before the share price can bridge the gap to the target.

The broker maintains an Outperform rating and $3.90 target.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: $1.26
If WHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 40.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources