Australian Broker Call

UBS rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

On the basis of data gathered by UBS, there is evidence the market has shifted in China towards super premium products and safety is of increasing importance.

Given the mismatch for a2 Platinum pricing versus consumer perceptions, the broker believes the brand could outperform peers over the medium term, but for a2 Platinum to become a genuine market leader it needs to substantially lift its traditional consumer brand awareness.

Neutral. Target is NZ$8.20.

Current Price is $8.16. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.57, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ALL as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse remains confident that over 20,000 participation units can be installed in North America by the end of FY19. The broker has received reports that Dragon Links is raking in as much as six times the house average - although generally around four times - with little cannibalisation to Lightning Links.

The broker has upgraded net profit estimates by 6-8% after applying a new lower US corporate tax rate, as over 70% of the company's earnings are sourced from the US.

Neutral retained. Target is raised to $25.30 from $24.60.

Target price is $25.30 Current Price is $23.51 Difference: $1.79
If ALL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.54, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates CIM as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Deutsche Bank retains a positive outlook for the Australian infrastructure construction sector in 2018, given a high backlog in work in hand.

Nevertheless, share prices appear already to be pricing in most of the positives as the broker observes valuations are towards the top end of historical ranges.

Cimic is downgraded to Sell from Hold and the target raised to $38.39 from $38.03.

Target price is $38.39 Current Price is $48.31 Difference: minus $9.92 (current price is over target).
If CIM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $40.86, suggesting downside of -15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Citi does not expect the potential purchase by Sanofi of Bioverativ will affect the company's haemophilia franchise in the near to medium term.

Beyond FY21 any impact will depend on the phase 3 trial of the Sanofi/Alnylam partnered Fitusiran, which is in development for treatment of haemophilia.

Buy rating maintained. Target is $165.

Target price is $165.00 Current Price is $146.47 Difference: $18.53
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $148.20, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

In response to The Wall Street Journal reporting a potential acquisition might be afoot, of Bioverativ by Sanofi, Macquarie analysts state there should be no impact on their base case assumptions for CSL.

Current modeling assumes modest market share gains for Afstlya (CSL’s longer acting rFVIII), but more substantial market share gains for Idelvion (rFIX), the analysts explain.

CSL reports its 1H18 result on 14 February. Rating remains Outperform. Target $154.

Target price is $154.00 Current Price is $146.47 Difference: $7.53
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $148.20, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates DHG as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Deutsche Bank had initiated with a Sell in November last year, but after share price weakness following the sudden departure of the CEO, the broker thinks it is time for an upgrade to Hold. Price target has remained $3.35.

The analysts acknowledge the immediate outlook is now clouded with uncertainty, but they also believe this is now well and truly reflected in the share price.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.36
If DHG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

CEO Anthony Catalano has resigned, just two months since the company listed on the ASX after separating from Fairfax ((FX J)). The company also provided a trading update, broadly in line with Macquarie's estimates.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and $3.50 target but recognises that the uncertainty means the stock is unlikely to trade to this level in the near term.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.51
If DHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DHG as Overweight (1) -

The resignation of CEO Anthony Catalano is an incremental negative for the shares and a surprise to Morgan Stanley, coming less than three months after the company's IPO. The departure creates uncertainty over strategy and growth aspirations, the broker acknowledges.

Separately, the company has confirmed first half revenue growth of 13% including digital revenue growth of 22%, which is in line with the broker's expectations.

Overweight rating and a $4.50 target. Industry View is Attractive.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $1.51
If DHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DHG as Reduce (5) -

CEO Anthony Catalano has resigned and Morgans believes his departure exposes the company to some revenue risks because he had close personal relationships with many of the principles behind the nation's largest estate agent franchises.

As a precautionary move the broker lowers revenue growth assumptions. As the shares trade in excess of valuation, and near-term risks may weigh on sentiment, Morgans maintains a Reduce rating. Target is lowered to $2.66 from $2.74.

Target price is $2.66 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DHG as Upgrade to Buy from Sell (1) -

CEO Antony Catalano has unexpectedly resigned, citing family commitments and difficulties with relocating to Sydney.

Regardless of the reasons for his departure, UBS believes investors were partly pricing the stock at a premium to the REA Group ((REA)) because of a belief that he could help drive significant growth in the business.

Even if the risk to forward growth has increased UBS believes the uncertainty is more than priced in and upgrades to Buy from Sell. Target is $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.21
If DHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EHL as Outperform (1) -

The company has indicated a strong margin uplift in its second quarter update, driven by operating improvements and cost management. Macquarie estimates around 50% growth in two-year EBITDA, and considers the discount in the share price unjustified.

Outperform rating and target is raised to $0.32 from $0.30.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.04
If EHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EHL as Add (1) -

Morgans observes the completion of contract mining operations (lower margin) was the driver for increased profitability in the second quarter. Operating earnings were up 15%, at a margin of 43% versus a margin of 35% in the first quarter.

The company remains positive on the Force acquisition and integration appears to be going well. Morgans remains comfortable with FY18 and FY19 forecasts and maintains an Add rating and $0.33 target.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.05
If EHL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FXJ as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley suspects the surprise departure of Domain ((DHG)) CEO Anthony Catalano is an incremental negative for Fairfax shares because Fairfax is the company's largest shareholder, owning 60% of the total shares on issue.

Overweight retained, with an 85c target. Industry View is Attractive.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.17
If FXJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.77, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GUD as Buy (1) -

Citi expects the company to focus on growing the automotive division with acquisitions and, potentially, non-core divestments. Automotive is expected to be 82% of first half EBIT.

The broker expects 15% growth in revenue in FY18, driven by new supply arrangements, new products and price increases.

Citi reiterates its Buy rating and raises the target to $14.20 from $13.06.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $12.31 Difference: $1.89
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.23, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley reviews its position on chemicals coverage amid increased confidence in the commodity cycle. Over the last three months fertiliser prices have proved more resilient than the broker previously anticipated.

Morgan Stanley upgrades FY18 estimates for earnings per share by 11%, primarily as a result of fertiliser price changes. However, fertiliser prices are expected to moderate from here. Benefits associated with underlying explosives volume growth are set against recent contract losses in Western Australia.

The broker retains an Equal-weight rating and Cautious industry view. The target is raised to $3.90 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.18
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IVC as Overweight (1) -

Contrary to Ord Minnett (see yesterday), analysts at Morgan Stanley do pay attention to changing market dynamics in the UK, which prompted UK funeral operator Dignity to issue a profit warning, but they don't see similar dynamics appearing in Australia or New Zealand.

In addition, the analysts observe InvoCare appears to have achieved case average increases from up-sell rather than price hikes in recent years. Overweight rating retained. Target $18. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $14.69 Difference: $3.31
If IVC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.46, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades to Outperform from Neutral, considering the pending construction issues are now, at least partly, factored into the share price. The broker also retains more confidence in the sources of other profits.

The broker believes, in a changing macro environment, the outright chase for yield has returned the focus to growth and, hence, Lend Lease is well-placed. Target is $17.63.

Target price is $17.63 Current Price is $15.83 Difference: $1.8
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.04, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates NEC as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Deutsche Bank now forecasts marginal growth in the metro TV market in FY18. Some of the momentum seen in the first half should continue into the second half, driven by advertising revenue linked to the Commonwealth Games and greater monetisation by Nine Entertainment of some of its better-performing 2017 programs.

Heading into FY19 the broker believes growth will be difficult to maintain, particularly in the light of audience declines. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold, as a broker envisages upside from current levels. Target is raised $1.80 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: $0.16
If NEC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.48, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reviews its position on chemicals coverage amid increased confidence in the commodity cycle.

The broker believes recent commodity price strength will prove a precursor to expansion activity and an increase in supply. This has prompted an increase in explosives demand forecasts.

The broker calculates Orica has earnings leverage to increased volumes that is underappreciated.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target is raised to $21.20 from $16.50. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $21.20 Current Price is $19.23 Difference: $1.97
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.04, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates PGH as Buy (1) -

Profit estimates have been reduced by -5-6%. The analysts explain the move is triggered by higher than anticipated energy costs on top of higher costs to achieve targeted efficiency benefits from acquisitions.

As the share price is still trading at a discount to the broker's valuation, the Buy rating remains in place. Despite today's adjustment, Deutsche Bank continues to see robust EPS growth ahead (3 year CAGR of 8%), a sound balance sheet with net leverage of 2.3x, and a cash conversion rate that has averaged 100% over the past 3 years.

One added element of attraction is the expectation of a more stable topline going forward. Valuation/price target $6.50 (down from $6.65).

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $1.22
If PGH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.75, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNI as Buy (1) -

Funds under management and first half guidance are well ahead of Ord Minnett's expectations. The broker increases forecasts for earnings per share in FY18 and FY19 by 24% and 28% respectively.

Affiliates across the portfolio generated $4bn in net inflows in the first half, versus $2.4bn in the prior corresponding half.

A Buy rating is retained. Target is raised to $4.88 from $3.60.

Target price is $4.88 Current Price is $4.62 Difference: $0.26
If PNI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

FY18 underlying margins are falling and, given earnings risks in the medium term and the need for personal lines to improve, Morgan Stanley believes the stakes on the company's "marketplace" strategy are high. The broker targets a first half underlying margin of 10.4%.

Rating is upgraded to Equal-wait from Underweight. Target is raised to $13.20 from $12.90. In-Line sector view.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $13.76 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.02, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS believes the company has the opportunity to accelerate both value and volume share in China over the next 3--5 years. Asia is expected to become the largest contributor to operating earnings by FY19.

The broker's analysis shows that the company's brands are materially under penetrated but rate highly among wine consumers. UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $17.30 from $13.00.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $16.57 Difference: $0.73
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.81, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse changes analyst and resets the target to $2.79 from $2.65, retaining a Neutral rating. The broker forecasts free funds from operations of $359.5m in the first half, or 9.2c per security.

FY18 estimates are 18.5c per security, ahead of guidance, primarily because of buyback activity that is not assumed in guidance, and a slower rate of asset sales.

Target price is $2.79 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.13
If VCX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources