Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates A1M as Buy (1) -

AIC Mines delivered a strong June quarter operational result, in Bell Potter's view, with copper production of 3,202t and costs (AISC) of $4.58/lb outperforming both guidance and the broker’s forecast.

FY25 production totaled 12,863t of copper (and 5,955oz of gold) at an AISC of $4.98/lb copper, also beating guidance of 12,500t at $5.25–5.50/lb.

June quarter mine cash flow more than doubled to $28m due to solid operations and strong gold credits, highlight the analysts.

The broker notes FY26 guidance assumes steady production and costs.

Management completed expansion financing during the quarter, ending FY25 with $60.9m cash.

Bell Potter raises its target price to 60c from 56c and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.26
If A1M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.60, suggesting upside of 76.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects a modestly positive market reaction to Ampol’s June 2025 quarter update, with unaudited 1H25 replacement cost earnings (EBIT) of circa $400m, 4% above the broker’s estimate and -1% adrift of consensus.

The June quarter Lytton refinery margin rose 43% quarter-on-quarter to US$8.71/bbl, ahead of both the broker (US$6.51) and consensus (US$7.04), on 1.4bn litres of production.

Fuel sales rose 3% quarter-on-quarter to 6.3bn litres but were down -5% year-on-year, with declines in Australia and NZ offsetting international gains, explain the analysts.

Convenience and NZ earnings were supported by fuel mix, highlights Morgan Stanley. International operations were around breakeven and Lytton earnings were also near breakeven after recovering in the second quarter, explain the analysts.

Morgan Stanley sees the result as encouraging, with potential positive implications for Viva Energy ((VEA)) and maintains a broadly constructive view on downstream markets. 

Overweight rating. Target $30. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.77 Difference: $2.23
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.00, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett views Ampol’s June-quarter update as positive, citing a break-even refining margin at Lytton Refinery, exceeding  market expectations of a loss. The Convenience Retail segment also performed better-than-expected.

Management noted a lower effective tax rate and stable interest costs year-on-year, which, combined with the Lytton margin, should prompt consensus EPS upgrades for the 1H 2025, suggests the broker.

A stronger margin means Ampol did not qualify for the federal Fuel Security Services Payment, highlights the analyst. Refined product spreads were supported by sanctions impacting Russian crude supply.

Ord Minnett raises its 2025 EPS forecast by 5.6% while trimming 2026-27 by -2.4% on slightly higher Lytton operating costs. The broker also lifts its interim dividend forecast to 40c from 35c.

Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating and a $35.00 target price.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $27.77 Difference: $7.23
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.00, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Overweight (1) -

AMP remains Morgan Stanley's preferred stock pick across wealth managers with an attractive valuation and robust flows, including "holistic" retirement income solutions.

The June quarter was a standout for AMP with around $680m net flows post-pensions, the best level in seven years, the analyst highlights. The wealth manager has started tailored managed accounts.

Morgan Stanley marks to market for better equity markets and flows, offset by lower bank volumes. The broker’s EPS forecasts rise by 4%-5% for FY25-FY27.

Target lifts to $1.90 from $1.62. Overweight rated. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.24
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

Today's FY24 update by Bapcor reflects a far more challenging environment than previously expected by Citi, with a significant deterioration in trading conditions during May and June. Major leadership disruptions also eventuated with three board resignations.

The analysts consider the stock uninvestable at present given the deterioration in trading into year-end, and new accounting complexities/FY24 restatements following the recent CFO transition. Post conference call the broker is even more "bearish" with no colour offered on the resignation of three board members.

At first glance, the broker notes FY25 statutory profit of between $31-34m is well below consensus at $91.7m. Underlying profit of $81–82m also missed the $95.8m consensus estimate, note the analysts.

Significant items of -$43.3-45.3m (mostly non-cash) include inventory valuation changes, impairments, and uncollectable receivables.

Segment performance was weak across the board, highlights the broker, with Specialist Wholesale revenue -6% below consensus, Retail -5%, NZ -3% and Trade -1%.

Citi notes ongoing consumer pressures, competitor strength, and operational issues including receivables and supplier disputes.

Although cost savings are tracking at the upper end of the $20-30m range, the broker notes these will be partly offset by planned investments in IT, supply chain and marketing. 

Target price is $5.43 Current Price is $5.11 Difference: $0.32
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 53.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CEN as Resumes coverage with Neutral (3) -

UBS resumes coverage of Contact Energy with a Neutral rating and NZ$9.75 target price post the acquisition of Manawa Energy.

Manawa Energy is expected to contribute to earnings at the start of FY26 and will boost the combined business to forecast FY26 earnings (EBITDAF) of NZ$1bn, commentary points out.

Renewable generation should rise to around 98% of FY26 forecast earnings and circa 88% for FY27 forecast earnings.

The acquisition should also underwrite synergy benefits over the next 18 months to corporate and head office cost outs, commentary suggests, optimising hydro management and peaking, and improved locational generation distribution.

From a macro perspective, UBS highlights NZ electric utilities have had a flat performance over the past nine months and slightly under-performed the NZX50 index due to both regulatory and hydrological risks.

Share price upside is likely to be limited by ongoing high long bond yields, the broker concludes.

Current Price is $8.33. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley downgrades Challenger to Underweight from Equal-weight as the analyst believes there are risks to revenue margins as APRA wants better pricing for customers, while acknowledging the positive tailwinds from lighter capital requirements and longevity growth options.

The broker points to offsetting lower pricing with higher volumes, which could be difficult for Challenger given the relatively attractive pricing on term deposits and rising competition from other retirement products.

With the share price having rallied 37% year to date, Morgan Stanley sees better value in other wealth managers, notably AMP ((AMP)).

Target price is lifted to $6.60 from $6.40. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $8.27 Difference: minus $1.67 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.42, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CU6 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Clarity Pharmaceuticals continues to deliver strong clinical outcomes despite broader biotech sector weakness.

The broker revisits key findings of the earlier Cobra study in men with biochemical recurrence of disease following prostatectomy.

The upcoming Co-PSMA trial readout is expected within months, targeting men with low but rising PSA levels where early tumour detection may significantly influence survival and intervention timelines, explain the analysts.

The broker highlights results from the earlier Cobra study, which detected sub-5mm tumours in 14% of participants with median PSA of just 0.9ng/mL, prompted changes in management for nearly half of patients.

Rapid recruitment for Co-PSMA signals to the analysts strong physician demand for better diagnostics, with the Amplify pivotal clinical study set to build on this momentum.

Bell Potter raises its target to $5.00 from $4.90 and retains a Buy (Speculative) rating.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.91 Difference: $1.09
If CU6 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DMP as Buy (1) -

In a first read of US-listed parent Domino's Pizza Inc. 's 2Q25 results, UBS notes US domestic same-store sales growth of 3.4% beat expectations of 2.1%, as store pickups outpaced deliveries.

International same-store sales growth was 2.4% vs 1.7% expected due to strength in Canada, Mexico and India. The company reiterated its FY25 guidance for global retail sales growth to match the FY24 rate of around 5.9%.

For FY26, the company plans to focus less on closures and more on the viability of new openings, noting it depends on franchisee unit economics. Cost savings will also be a priority, given uncertainty regarding the sales growth rate.

Buy retained for independently run and ASX-listed Domino's Pizza Enterprises. Target unchanged at $22.

This report was published yesterday.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $18.58 Difference: $3.42
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.47, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Underweight (5) -

Dexus' wholesale shopping centre fund (DWSF) is buying a 25% stake in Scentre Group's ((SCG)) Westfield Chermside for $683m.

Morgan Stanley notes Dexus will put -$170m into DWSF to take its stake to around 14% and while it sees the deal as positive for investors, there are concerns about the funds management business.

Separately, the REIT announced a $9m pre-tax trading profit for FY26 from the sale of 149 Orchard Road, Chester Hill, and is offering DWSF investors a fee cut, additional liquidity and backstop funding.

Overall impact is a 0.4% accretion to FY26 FFO but -0.6% dilution to FY27 on fee cut. Underweight. Target unchanged at $7.75. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $7.06 Difference: $0.69
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.82, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Post a pub/hotel conference, Citi has come away more positive on the outlook for Endeavour Group's hotel business.

The analyst highlights measures to adapt to changing consumption patterns, including investment in entertainment, while gaming is apparently less of a headwind than previously anticipated.

Challenges include competition from quick service restaurants, the rise in online gambling, margins for food and beverage, a trend toward slowing alcohol consumption, and offering a "localised" experience from a large corporate group.

Citi states it is less positive on Endeavour's retail operations than the hotels group. Neutral rated. Target $4.59.

Target price is $4.59 Current Price is $4.12 Difference: $0.47
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVT as Overweight (1) -

The analysts at Morgan Stanley believe the market is underappreciating the strong earnings recovery underway in EVT Ltd's Cinema division, which is still in the early stages. 

Cinema’s operating leverage is highlighted as a key earnings tailwind, reinforcing the broker’s positive thesis on EVT.

The broker forecasts EPS to grow at a 12% compound annual rate over three years, driven by a rebound in Cinema earnings, supported by improved box office content and high operating leverage.

In collaboration with its US entertainment team, Morgan Stanley expects the number of wide film releases to rise by 10% in 2025 and 15% in 2026.

Morgan Stanley views the risk/reward as attractive. Overweight. Target price $19. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $16.05 Difference: $2.95
If EVT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.67, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Citi believes Fortescue delivered a strong June 2025 quarter today, shipping a record 55.2mt of iron ore for FY25 shipments of 198.4mt, up 4% year-on-year.

Hematite C1 costs were low at US$16.29/wmt in the quarter (FY25: US$17.99/wmt), supported by a favourable strip ratio of 1.3 times, explain the analysts. Net debt declined to US$1.1bn at June 30 from US$2.1bn in March, helped by a US$300m working capital release.

FY25 results will include a -US$150m pre-tax writedown on the Gladstone PEM50 project. Energy spending (including opex and capex) is expected to fall to around -US$700m in FY26 (opex + capex), down from circa -US$1.1bn in FY25.

FY26 guidance includes shipments of 195-205mt (including 10-12mt from Iron Bridge), hematite C1 costs of US$17.50–18.50/wmt, metals capex of -US$3.3-4.0bn, energy capex of circa -US$300m and opex of around -US$400m.

Citi sees the cost performance and energy spend reduction as a positive Target $16. Neutral.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $18.21 Difference: minus $2.21 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.58, suggesting downside of -12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Today's June 2025 quarter performance update by Fortescue exceeded Macquarie's expectations across key metrics, with production and shipments rising by 5%. These and haematite unit costs all beat consensus forecasts.

Iron ore shipments of 55.2mt included 2.4mt from Iron Bridge. Net debt fell to US$1.1bn, US$0.8bn better than the broker forecast, aided by a modest working capital release.

Haematite cash costs were US$16.29/wmt, -6% below consensus, supported by a strip ratio of 1.3x (below the life of mine average), explains the broker. 

FY26 guidance for US$17.50–18.50/wmt in cash costs also came in around -4% below the analyst's expectations. Realised prices were broadly in line, with haematite at US$81.77/dmt (84% of Platts), while Iron Bridge realised US$108/dmt, slightly below consensus.

Macquarie sees the FY26 production and capex guidance as broadly in line, with cost and debt outcomes better than expected.

Neutral rating. Target $15.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $18.21 Difference: minus $3.21 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.58, suggesting downside of -12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FPH as Neutral (3) -

UBS details Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's Investor Day highlights, including the company's approach to altering clinical practice with better patient outcomes and lower hospital costs across four segments, including high flow therapy in the emergency department, ward, anaesthesia, and neonatal.

The broker notes Australian hospitals are using high flow therapy for the majority of anaesthesia operations to improve patient safety for longer intubation times and wider airway openings.

The growth in the therapy is increasingly reliant on hospital adoption for adult respiratory disorders in emergency and other wards, UBS states.

Neutral rating and NZ$37 target retained.

Current Price is $33.23. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FPR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes FleetPartners Group's 3Q25 update was strong with net operating income up 5% year-to-date y/y vs FY25 consensus of 4.9%, but new business writings (NBW) remained soft.

Year-to-date NBW was down -17% y/y, and FY25 is now expected to be down -17% vs the previous forecast of a -12% decline. Still, the broker expects improved momentum in FY26 as system disruptions ease and the benefits of new business wins are seen.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $3.90. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $1.04
If FPR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 31.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FPR as Buy (1) -

FleetPartners Group's 3Q25 trading update came in slightly below Ord Minnett's expectations. New business writings (NBW) were down circa -17%, consistent with 1H25, reflecting disruption from the Accelerate program system cutover.

Despite lower NBW, the analysts explain assets under management and operating fleet (AUMOF) grew by around 5% year-to-date, and end-of-lease income remains strong, with improved profit per vehicle.

The broker notes steady growth in net operating income before end-of-lease and provisions, but also highlights elevated arrears linked to the systems transition and a shift in EV demand to battery EVs from plug-in hybrids.

No change has been made to FY25 guidance. The broker's forecast adjustments are modest, with the target price trimmed to $3.40 from $3.50 due to a minor downgrade in FY25–27 income expectations.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating on valuation grounds, viewing the stock as attractively priced.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.54
If FPR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 31.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GDG as Overweight (1) -

At first look, Morgan Stanley notes Generation Development's 4Q25 net inflows from Lonsec and Gen Life beat expectations, but Evidentia missed.

Evidentia FUM rose 60% y/y to $14.8bn but was well short of the broker's $17.7bn estimate. 

Overall, the broker reckons the update had some clear positives and negatives, but sees any share price weakness as a buying opportunity.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $5.65. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $0.23
If GDG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans assesses Generation Development's 4Q25 update as mixed, with investment bond sales at a record level but Evidentia AUM missing both guidance and consensus.

Investment bond sales rose 60% y/y or $316m, beating the consensus of $247m and well above previous quarterly record of $250m seen in 2Q25. Evidentia 4Q25 FUM of $14.8bn missed guidance of $18.5bn and consensus of $17.5bn.

Lonsec FUM of $14.8bn beat consensus of $14.0bn. The broker cut FY25 EPS forecast by -0.5% and FY26 by -6% as lower Evidentia earnings are expected to offset forecasts for better performance from investment bonds.

Accumulate. Target rises to $6.25 from $6.00 on valuation roll-forward and a better outlook for investment bonds.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $0.83
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GNE as Buy (1) -

From a macro perspective, UBS highlights NZ electric utilities have had a flat performance over the past nine months and slightly underperformed the NZX50 index due to both regulatory and hydrological risks.

Share price upside is likely to be limited by ongoing high long bond yields, commentary suggests. Genesis Energy remains the most preferred in the sector.

UBS lifts EPS estimates by 5.7% for FY25 and lowers FY26 by -13.2%. Target price is raised to NZ$2.90 from NZ$2.80.

Current Price is $2.16. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNP as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter raises its target for GenusPlus Group to $5.00 from $3.30 reflecting stronger near-term earnings growth expectations and an uplift in the terminal growth rate to 4.0% from 3.0%.

The broker also lowers its weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumption. Momentum is seen building following a series of new contract wins and an upgraded FY25 earnings outlook.

The company has won several projects, including two battery energy storage system (BESS) infrastructure contracts at Reeves Plains ($105m) and Merredin ($65m). Wins also include rail works for Arc Infrastructure ($20m), and circa $125m in works for Western Power.

Management has lifted FY25 organic EBITDA growth guidance to 28-32% (from more than 20%) following a strong June quarter and 2H contributions from acquisitions. 

The broker's EPS forecasts have been increased by 12% in FY25, 19% in FY26 and 15% in FY27 on stronger revenue assumptions and recent wins.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.31 Difference: $0.69
If GNP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Equal-weight (3) -

Post the June quarter update, Morgan Stanley lifts earnings estimates for FY26-FY27 by 7%-8%. Target price is raised to $4.80, in line with the CC Capital bid. Equal-weight. Industry View: In Line.

Morgan Stanley  highlights improved Wrap inflows of $1.2bn in the June quarter, especially from MLC Expand, with Wrap funds under administration (FUA) about 4.5% ahead of forecast.

Asset Management funds under management (FUM) was impacted by the derecognition of -$4.8bn tied to the sale of EU real estate assets, highlight the analysts.

Funds under management and administration (FUMA) at June 30 were $330bn, roughly 2% above the broker's estimates. While 4Q25 flows were strong, $2.9bn in Wrap outflows and further MasterTrust net outflows are still expected in 1H26.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: $0.32
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.80, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IFL as No Rating (-1) -

In a first read of Insignia Financial's move to enter into a Scheme Implementation Deed with CC Capital for a $4.80/share all-cash deal, UBS notes the price is -4% below the floor price previously set by the board. 

The broker considers the discount reasonable, given the market volatility since March and with CC Capital remaining the sole bidder for the company.

Regulatory approvals from ACCC, APRA, FIRB and FCA (UK) will be needed, and completion is expected in 1H2026.

The broker has a research restriction on the company. No rating, target price and forecasts.

This report was published yesterday.

Current Price is $4.48. Target price not assessed.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Iluka Resources reported June quarter revenue of $289m, which was basically in line with Citi's forecast, rising 15% from the prior quarter.

Total zircon, rutile and zirconium of 133kt rose 14% on the March quarter but came below the broker's estimate by -5%. Realised prices were below estimate by -3% but up 1% from the March period.

Commentary posits the decline in zircon prices by -7% since the March quarter suggests prices have not troughed yet.

Positively, Balranald is on track for 2H2025 commissioning and net debt, including the refinery, came in at $502m.

Citi downgrades the stock to Neutral/High Risk from Buy/High Risk. Target raised to $5.30 from $5.20.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.39 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Iluka's June quarter operational result was mixed, according to Macquarie, with production up 11% on consensus driven by zircon, rutile and synthetic rutile. Total sales fell -14% short, reflecting weaker rutile and ilmenite shipment timing, explains the analyst.

Balranald remains on track both in terms of budget and schedule, which Macquarie views as a key positive. However, near-term concerns persist over zircon market softness and the company’s decision to withdraw 3Q guidance on zircon sales and pricing.

Zircon in concentrate (ZIC) production plans were revised, with full-year guidance achieved by mid-year and around 30kt extra to come in H2.

Minimal output is expected in 2026, resulting in circa -70kt lower ZIC output than May’s Investor Briefing suggested, points out the analyst.

Macquarie cuts its 2025 EPS forecast by -17% due to lower zircon pricing but raises 2026 by 3%, with outer-year earnings (2027–30) trimmed by between -4–8%. The target price is reduced by -3% to $6.30.

Despite market weakness, Macquarie retains an Outperform rating, citing improving market conditions and the ramp-up at Balranald as near-term catalysts.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.39 Difference: $1.11
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

Iluka Resources' 4Q25 production of 150kt was above both Morgan Stanley's and consensus forecasts by 15.4% and 25.2%, respectively, with zircon in concentrate the major upside surprise and offset zircon production, a miss of -19.2% on the broker's estimate.

Total sales at 132.7kt were below expectations, as was total revenue per tonne of $2109/t.

Morgan Stanley notes conditions remain challenging, with customers cautious. Management believes significant re-stocking of zircon products is yet to take place.

Production in Indonesia has been impacted by local authorities enforcing stricter compliance on artisanal mining. Only one miner is operating, and the duration is unknown.

Morgan Stanley is Overweight on Iluka Resources with a $5.35 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $5.39 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Iluka Resources reported production of 108kt, which was better than UBS expected at 102kt, with zircon in concentrate production a surprise at 41.7kt, which was well above forecast at 15kt due to Iluka making the most of market conditions.

UBS retains a cautious attitude around the market outlook in the near term due to tariff uncertainty, while project risks for Eneabba remain high, although Balranald remains on course for commissioning in 2H25.

Year-to-date capex sits at -$179m, below the guidance at -$600m. No change to Neutral rating. Target lifts to $5.45 from $5.30.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.39 Difference: $0.06
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KAR as Buy (1) -

Citi's quick take notes Karoon Energy's June quarter production of 3.1mmboe met expectations and was above consensus by 6%. A late cargo lift missed the quarter cut-off and resulted in sales of 2.6mmboe, which was below the analyst's forecast by -16%.

Net debt for the quarter came in at US$238m, better than market consensus, and Citi likes the decision to operate Bauna, with the potential for improved reliability and better operational control.

The CEO, Julian Fowles, will depart mid-FY26, with head office re-locating to Houston over the next 12–18 months.

Citi views the operational results as strong. Buy rated. Target $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: $0.23
If KAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MAP as Speculative Buy (1) -

Fourth quarter revenue of $4.2m for Microba Life Sciences was in line with both guidance and Bell Potter's estimate.

Excluding the divested Research Services segment, revenue grew 4% year-on-year in Q4 and 3% in 2H, highlights the broker. New product growth (MetaXplore, MetaPanel) offset declines in legacy and partnership sales.

Free cashflow burn was -$6.3m for the quarter and -$15.3m for FY25, steady year-on-year, with a reduction expected in FY26 due to lower costs from halted legacy and therapeutic programs, explain the analysts.

The $14.5m capital raise (announced 23 June) at 9cps included $4.2m from Sonic Healthcare ((SHL)), lifting cash to around $20.2m. The broker explains proceeds are expected to fund operations into 1H FY27 assuming lower burn and possible out-licensing revenue.

Therapeutic assets remain on the shelf awaiting partnerships, highlights Bell Potter, with any deals unlikely before 2026.

Regional breakeven (AU/UK) is guided for FY26, while group-level breakeven is expected by FY28.

Bell Potter maintains a Buy (Speculative) rating and lowers its valuation to 16c from 26c.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.06
If MAP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MAU as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Magnetic Resources published a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) for the Lady Julie gold project where the highlight was a maiden reserve of 1Moz at 1.72g/t.

Shaw and Partners notes the DFS was broadly in line with its expectations. The DFS showed -$139m of the -$375m pre-production capex was related to the processing plant, and the broker sees a corporate deal could potentially lower this cost.

The broker highlights the study has a high accuracy level of around 20%, allowing the company to move directly to the project financing stage.

Buy, High Risk. Target lifted to $3.33 from $2.53.

Target price is $3.33 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $1.88
If MAU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 130% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie Group's June quarter trading update at the AGM was weaker than the market expected.

Net profit after tax inferred is down around -10% on the previous year. Consensus is forecasting 1H26 net profit after tax growth of 21% to $1.95bn in comparison, UBS explains.

Management did emphasise the update met internal 1H26 expectations with asset sales skewed to 2H26. Notably, the group's profit split in FY25 was circa 43%/57%, implying FY26 will be split 46%/55%.

UBS highlights commentary from divisions was worse than anticipated. MAM was down on timing of investment-related income, offset by performance fees. Domestic bank wealth was robust compared to last year, although the net interest margin declined.

North American trading income was lower for gas and power, with MacCap income boosted by private credit volume growth.

Neutral rated with $225 target price.

Target price is $225.00 Current Price is $225.29 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $214.98, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NSR as Buy (1) -

UBS details some highlights from the broker's self storage monitor.

National rates rose 0.5% for National Storage REIT in 4Q24 with an unlisted peer down -2.7% and represents the first instance of consecutive rises in monthly like-for-like rate increases across May and June since February/March 2024, the broker explains.

WA, QLD and SA were the most robust states with VIC weighing on the other states, down -3.6%.

UBS expects a "messy" result from the REIT with its own underlying earnings estimate of $163m basically in line with guidance of greater than $165m.

Buy and $2.57 target price retained for National Storage REIT.

Target price is $2.57 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.22
If NSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.51, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Buy (1) -

Citi initially assesses today's June quarter update by Northern Star Resources as mixed, with a positive shift in hedging policy offset by a lack of fresh medium-term guidance. A neutral market reaction is expected.

The FY26 outlook includes production of 1.7–1.85moz (below the earlier 2moz ambition) and costs AISC of $2,300–2,700/oz. Growth capex guidance is for between -$2.1–2.3bn, including around -$150m for Hemi.

KCGM underground performance improved in the quarter, highlight the analysts, reaching an annualised 3.5mtpa.

Group cash stood at $1.91bn at June-end, boosted by the De Grey Mining transaction, explains the broker. 

FY25 wrapped up with production of 1.63moz at AISC $2,163/oz, in line with guidance, with Citi highlighting solid contributions from Pogo and Thunderbox.

The broker notes downside risk to FY26 earnings forecasts given elevated cost and capex guidance. Buy rating. Target $21.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $16.67 Difference: $4.33
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.95, suggesting upside of 28.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Paladin Energy delivered a June quarter production beat with 0.99mlbs, exceeding both Bell Potter and consensus estimates, driven by stronger throughput and higher grade.

Sales of 0.71mlbs were in line with expectations, though average realised pricing disappointed at US$55.6/lb versus Bell Potter’s US$60.7/lb forecast.

Cash costs improved 7.6% quarter-on-quarter to US$37.5/lb, while FY26 guidance for production of 4.0–4.4mlbs and costs of US$44–48/lb came in below the broker's prior forecasts.

Bell Potter feels guidance is conservative, noting the strong June quarter result and management’s comments that 1H FY26 should be in line.

The broker lowers its target price to $8.70 from $9.20 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $1.45
If PDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.01, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Citi observes the sell-off in Paladin Energy's shares on the back of what is viewed as a "solid" June quarter report, due to weaker prices realised and disappointing FY26 guidance.

The lower realised price was attributed to timing and mix of contract deliveries, which is not considered a structural problem for the miner.

Higher FY26 cost guidance was related to medium-grade stockpile prep and costs from mining/blasting. Management is expected to continue to optimise its blend strategy to manage the grade of stockpile.

FY26 earnings estimate lowered by -44% with target moving down to $9.90 from $10.10. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $2.65
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.01, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Paladin Energy reported robust 4Q25 production of 0.99mlbs, above Morgan Stanley's forecast by 35.5% and consensus by 30.2% due to higher throughput, the broker notes.

Average price realised of US$55.6/lb was below estimate by -20% for Morgan Stanley and -17.6% lower than consensus, with a FY25 price achieved of US$65.7/lb. Cost of production was 12.4% higher than the analyst's estimate.

Paladin has 13 offtake contracts, up from 12 in the previous quarter, for 24.1mlb of U308 contracted to 2030.

No change to Overweight rating and target price of $7.45. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $0.2
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.01, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PDN as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners describes Paladin Energy's June quarter report as strong based on production and cash cost, but there were some negatives too.

Realised sales price was only US$55.6/lb due to deliveries under legacy, lower-priced contracts, and sales volumes and working capital were lower due to timing issues.

The result is a miss on the cash balance with US$89m at the end of June vs US$128m forecast.

The broker reckons FY26 guidance of 4.0-4.5Mlb looks conservative but has downgraded its forecast from a previously elevated level. Cost guidance was in line with the forecast.

EBITDA forecast for FY26 cut by -26% but FY27 lifted by 1%. Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at $10.10.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $2.85
If PDN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.01, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PDN as Buy (1) -

UBS explains Paladin Energy reported better than expected 4Q25 production at 994klb at a cost of US$37.5/lb, but the focus was on FY26 guidance of 4–4.4mlb production, which was below the broker's forecast of 4.5mlb and 4.6mlb for consensus.

The miner continues to blend stockpiles during the mine ramp-up, which, commentary suggests, is clouding the picture.

UBS lowers production/sales volumes for FY26 forecasts by -4% and -5%, respectively, which results in EPS estimates declining by -7% for FY26 and -5% for FY27.

The analyst believes the market's patience and confidence in Paladin's scaling of Langer Heinrich is being challenged around whether production can reach 6mlbs per annum.

Buy retained. Target slips to $9 from $9.40.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $1.75
If PDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.01, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PPT as Buy (1) -

Perpetual's 4Q24 AUM rose 2.5%, beating consensus by 2% but falling short of UBS' forecast by -2%. The growth was due to mark-to-market gains, which more than offset net outflows of -$3.9bn.

The company plans to review its asset management boutiques, and the broker flagged risks of non-cash goodwill impairments and outflow pressures. Cost control is expected to be the focus to offset these impacts.

Discussions continue with interested parties for the sale of the wealth management business, and the broker expects net proceeds to be largely used to reduce gearing.

EPS forecast for FY26 cut by -6% and by -3% for FY27. Buy. Target unchanged at $22.50.

This report was published yesterday.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $20.56 Difference: $1.94
If PPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.85, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PWR as Equal-weight (3) -

In a first look at Peter Warren Automotive's FY25 trading update, Morgan Stanley notes the profit before tax expectation of $22m beat the consensus of $15.8m due to a stronger 2H25.

The broker notes the positive surprise was driven by seasonality, improved cost and inventory management, and a rebound in market activity.

At the FY25 result on August 21, the broker will be looking for commentary on gross margin outlook, noting any expansion from 1H25 would be a bullish signal. The broker is also keen to know how much of 2H25 strength is sustainable.

Equal-weight. Target unchanged at $1.40. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If PWR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.62, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PWR as Hold (3) -

Peter Warren Automotive's FY25 underlying profit guidance of $22m was an upgrade as it pointed to $15m profit in 2H vs $7.1m in 1H, whereas the company previously signalled a flat 2H outcome.

Morgans notes marketing campaigns at the year-end, and better inventory and cost management were drivers for the stronger outcome. While margin improved in 2H, it remained well below peers, and the broker believes the company still lacks meaningful structural growth drivers.

Still, the broker lifted FY26 margin to 1.3% and sees further improvement to 1.8% in FY27. FY25 EPS forecast lifted by 58% and FY26 by 55%.

Hold. Target rises to $1.75 from $1.45.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.1
If PWR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.62, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PWR as Hold (3) -

Peter Warren Automotive's June 2025 half-year trading update exceeded Ord Minnett's expectations, with pre-tax profit rebounding to around $14.9m in 2H25. This brings the FY25 total to $22m from $7.1m in the first half.

The broker attributes the recovery to a strong seasonal sales period, effective marketing campaigns, inventory optimisation that lowered interest costs, and modest operating cost reductions.

June quarter new car sales were up over 6% year-on-year, highlight the analysts, and inventory was more aligned with demand, favouring in-demand vehicles over older stock.

Ord Minnett lifts its FY26 pre-tax profit estimate by around 24% and raises its target price to $1.70 from $1.40.

The broker maintains a Hold rating, noting demand sensitivity to consumer sentiment, supply chain variability, margin pressures, and competitive risks.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.05
If PWR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.62, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Overweight (1) -

Scentre Group reduced its holdings in Westfield Chermside by selling -25% to a wholesale shopping centre fund owned by Dexus' ((DXS)). 

Morgan Stanley assesses this as a mild positive for the company after it flagged the sale as a capital management strategy, with gearing reducing to 29.5%.

The broker sees the immediate earnings impact as immaterial but notes the sale price implies a 2.5% lift to Chermside's December 2024 valuation.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $4.34. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.34 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.58
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SKT as Buy (1) -

UBS considers SKY Network Television's acquisition of Discovery NZ an attractive deal for several reasons, including minimal capital outlay, synergies, and favourable timing. 

The company is paying -NZ$1 (one dollar) on a cash-free, debt-free basis, and expects to be free cash flow positive within 12-18 months, excluding transaction and net integration costs. 

The broker expects an acceleration of advertising share, with linear seen rising to 35% from 13% and digital to 24% from 2%. Content synergies of NZ$10-25m are expected.

Buy. Target unchanged at NZ$3.25. This report was published yesterday.

Current Price is $2.85. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

On Shaw and Partners'assessment, Santana Minerals reported another strong assay result from infill drilling at the northern extensions of the Rise and Shine deposit, this time from the testing of the deeper down plunge positions of the lode.

The best results included 31.9m at 5.3g/t gold at 303m. Shaw and Partners notes the result will support future resource category upgrades, reserve conversion, and mine life extensions for the underground component outlined in the recent pre-feasibility study.

The broker expects full development approval by year-end, with a strong cash position of $55.4m supporting ongoing activities.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at $1.36.

Target price is $1.36 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.76
If SMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 127% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Citi attended a wine conference in Adelaide with the mood described by the analyst as "downbeat," which was not surprising due to challenges for the industry from oversupply, volatile trading, falling consumption, and risks around labelling.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $8.50.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $8.07 Difference: $0.43
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.57, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Sell (5) -

Citi highlights the recent underperformance of bank shares, emphasising that valuations do matter "occasionally" and the sector remains at a premium compared to historical valuations. For investors, the challenge is portfolio positioning.

The analyst believes return on equity is the best hedge for valuation challenges. Westpac is noted for Project Unite, which Citi views as under-recognised by the market with little benefits factored in.

Project Unite is a major technology modernisation initiative designed to simplify and consolidate the bank's legacy IT systems.

There is potential for considerable upside if the bank can execute well on the "technical debt"; commentary suggests there is scope for the shares to re-rate to two times book value.

No change in Sell rating due to near term valuation. Target moves to $28.50 from $27.65.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $33.11 Difference: minus $4.61 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.11, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi describes a mixed outcome for Woodside Energy's June quarter update, with strong sales and production but limited clarity on cost drivers and repeatability.

Production guidance for 2025 is effectively circa 3% higher than prior once Greater Angostura volumes are stripped out, mainly due to better-than-expected Sangomar performance, explain the analysts.

While unit production costs were circa -8% below consensus, Citi cautions second-half costs will rise due to a planned turnaround at Karratha.

While the unexpectedly low petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT) expense is a positive, Citi highlights its drivers remain unclear and likely non-structural.

The broker lifts its 2025 core earnings estimate by around 5%, reflecting lower costs and PRRT, partly offset by increased production.

The analysts' estimates earnings for 2026 and 2027 are trimmed by -3% each due to higher depreciation and amortisation charges.

Citi maintains a Neutral rating and raises its target price to $25.50 from $21.50 largely due to a financial model roll-forward.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $25.21 Difference: $0.29
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.80, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WDS as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects a muted market response to Woodside Energy’s June 2025 quarter update, with the stock already up 5% this quarter, in line with the ASX200 Energy Index.

June quarter production of 50.1mmboe was modestly ahead of the broker's expectations, supported by Sangomar output above nameplate. Revenue of US$3.3bn was slightly better than forecast, with stronger sales volumes offsetting weaker realised prices.

Capex came in significantly below the analysts' estimates, down -58% quarter-on-quarter, with the reduction largely due to deferrals, explain the analysts. These included the Beaumont ammonia project’s completion payment now expected in 2026.

Guidance was adjusted modestly. Full-year production was narrowed, unit costs reduced, and total capex (ex-Louisiana LNG) lowered to -US$4.0-4.5bn.

While Morgan Stanley anticipates minor earnings revisions, upward drivers such as higher revenue and lower financing costs are expected to be largely offset by higher restoration expenses and tax. Equal-weight rating. Target $26. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $25.21 Difference: $0.79
If WDS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.80, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WDS as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett describes Woodside Energy’s June-quarter report as solid, with production meeting expectations and sales volumes and revenue surpassing consensus forecasts.

Outperformance was largely driven by Sangomar and inventory drawdowns at Pluto/Wheatstone, explains the analyst.

2025 production guidance was modestly tightened, unit production cost guidance was reduced by around -8% per boe, and capital expenditure was revised approximately -10% lower.

The broker estimates around US$170m in upside to consensus first-half underlying net profit, helped by capitalised interest and other income.

The broker's EPS forecasts are raised sharply:  by 67% for 2025, 75.5% for 2026, and 30.5% for 2027, bringing estimates in line with the market, with a matching 67% increase in forecast 2025 dividends.

Ord Minnett lowers its rating to Hold from Buy on valuation grounds, maintaining a $25.00 target price following an around 15% rise in the share price since early June.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $25.21 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.80, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WTC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects high share price volatility on WiseTech Global's FY25 result day on August 27, noting historically the stock has moved by an average gain/loss of 15% on result days.

On this occasion, the focus will be on the roll-out of Container Transport Optimisation (CTO), the economics of the new commercial model and how the e2open acquisition will add value to shareholders.

The broker's base case is a 17% y/y FY25 revenue growth, FY26 guidance of 24% growth, and CTO roll-out completion in 1H27. Stock price is expected to move -5% to +5%,

Overweight. Target unchanged at $140. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $120.03 Difference: $19.97
If WTC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources