Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates 4DX as Downgrade to Sell from Accumulate (5) -

Ord Minnett notes 4DMedical has started 2026 strongly with CT:VQ (Computed Tomography:Ventilation Quantification) deployment at UC San Diego and a $150m raise. This has driven continued share price momentum and a stretched FY27 estimated EV/sales multiple of 111x, well above peers.

In the broker's view, the valuation now appears disconnected from the near-term revenue outlook, with uncertainty around paid CT:VQ volumes and market size.

Target rises to $3.20 from $1.90 on outer-year free cash flow upgrades and a cut in WACC to 10.3% from 11.7%. Rating downgraded to Sell from Accumulate due to recent stellar share price gains.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: minus $1.88 (current price is over target).
If 4DX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects AIC Mines to report 3.3kt production in the December quarter and is forecasting 13.3kt for FY26 vs guidance of 12.8-13.1kt. EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 58% and by 57% for FY27.

Speculative Buy. Target rises to 75c from 56c.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.16
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.74, suggesting upside of 25.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AEL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie lifts Amplitude Energy's FY26 EPS forecast by 1.4% with marginally better production rises for Athena and Orbost.

No change to Outperform rating and $4 target.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $1.15
If AEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.27, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Aeris Resources to report 10.4kt copper-equivalent production in the December quarter and is forecasting 41.8kt for FY26. EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 45% and by 68% for FY27.

Speculative Buy maintained. Target rises to 85c from 62c.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.22
If AIS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.68, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALK as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Alkane Resources to report 43koz production in the December quarter and is forecasting 151koz for FY26 vs guidance of 155-170koz. EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 20% and by 18% for FY27.

Accumulate maintained. Target rises to $1.70 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.16
If ALK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMC as Buy (1) -

Morgans updated per share forecasts and target for Amcor following 5-for-1 share consolidation. Minor revisions to forecasts, mainly to reflect updated forex assumptions.

The broker notes Amcor's solid 1Q26 results, reaffirmed FY26 guidance, and synergy confidence underpin a positive outlook.

Target rises to $76 from $15.20. Buy maintained.

Note: Morgans is the second broker to amend for the consolidation, which is creating a split with forecasts elsewhere that have as yet not been adjusted.

Target price is $76.00

Current consensus price target is $38.02, suggesting upside of 193.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMI as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Aurelia Metals to report 21.2kt gold-equivalent production in the December quarter and is forecasting 84.5koz for FY26.  Expectation is for strong operating cash flows given higher prices but gold realised prices are expected to be impacted by hedging.

EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 28% and by 37% for FY27.

Buy maintained. Target rises to 45c from 37c.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.17
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting upside of 51.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AR1 as Buy (1) -

Austral Resources Australia has acquired the Lady Loretta mining leases from Glencore, including infrastructure, Shaw and Partners states. This will consolidate the tenure adjacent to Austral's Lady Annie copper mine and integrate control over the broader mineral system.

A net cash payment of $45.5m will be received by Austral on January 31, which will raise the cash balance to $65m, and in lieu, Glencore will receive a 2.5% NSR on all copper oxides and sulphides from the acquired tenements.

The broker sees the assets now owned as having a replacement value of over $1bn, and Austral is the only Australian copper company able to process both oxide and sulphide ore.

Buy, High risk rating unchanged and remains a key pick for Shaw and Partners in 2026 with a 20c target price.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.07
If AR1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Ahead of the December quarter report, Morgan Stanley expects BHP Group's total copper production to come in slightly ahead of consensus, led by stronger Escondida cathode output. WAIO production and sales are expected to be in line, with improved q/q outcome after Port Hedland upgrades.

The broker's BMA production forecast is lagging consensus due to a Broadmeadow longwall move, but sales are seen ahead on destocking.

Key watch points include copper growth project updates (Chile, Copper SA, Vicuna), Escondida’s new concentrator permitting, and progress on Jansen Stage 1 and 2.

Overweight. Target price $56.50.  Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $56.50 Current Price is $48.99 Difference: $7.51
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.40, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's forecasts for Boss Energy's Honeymoon production and sales in the December quarter are slightly above consensus as contracting activity lifts on stronger uranium pricing. The broker expects 410Klbs vs the company's 357klbs production flagged on December 10.

The forecast for Honeymoon costs is -2% below consensus but up q/q due to higher reagent use as new columns ramp up.

Key watch points include updates on the revised wide-spaced wellfield design and progress at Gould’s Dam and Jason’s deposits.

Rating upgraded to Overweight from Underweight. Target $2.05. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.47
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOE as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Boss Energy's December quarter production to meet guidance. Minor revisions to FY26-27 EPS forecasts.

No change to Hold rating and $1.15 target price.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie lowers Beach Energy's FY26 EPS forecast by -0.3% with the later Waitsia start, with no major changes to FY27 EPS forecasts.

An Underperform rating remains, with the target price slipping to 76c from 77c.

Target price is $0.76 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRL as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Bathurst Resources to report 0.5Mt total coal production in the December quarter and is forecasting 1.9Mt for FY26 vs guidance of 2.0Mt. EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 34% and very sharply for FY27 (on small numbers).

Speculative Buy maintained. Target rises to 90c from 80c.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.18
If BRL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CRN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Coronado Global Resources to report 4.5Mt Met coal production in the December quarter and is forecasting 16.2Mt for FY25 vs guidance of 16-18Mt. No change to FY25 EPS forecast, but FY26 lifted sharply.

Hold maintained. Target rises to 48c from 38c.

Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.06
If CRN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.33, suggesting downside of -22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSC as Hold (3) -

Capstone Copper reported record December quarter and FY2025 copper production broadly in line with consensus, Ord Minnett notes. However, FY2026 guidance was withheld due to an ongoing strike at Mantoverde, where output is expected to run at 50-75% capacity.

Despite near-term disruption, the broker remains positive on copper prices and Capstone’s leverage to strong market conditions and organic growth options in Chile.

EPS estimates are trimmed modestly for FY2026-28, though valuation upside is seen to be significant (as much as $20/share price) at current copper spot prices.

Hold retained and target price is unchanged at $14.50.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $15.63 Difference: minus $1.13 (current price is over target).
If CSC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.24, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley favours Deterra Royalties' exposure to high-grade iron ore, driven mainly by the MAC asset, with its royalty model making its yields less sensitive to iron ore price movements.

Rating upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target price $4.75. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $0.29
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.42, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EDV as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley cut Endeavour Group's FY26 EPS forecast by -11.5% and FY27 by -6.1%.

Equal-weight. Target trimmed to $4.10 from $4.30. Industry View: In Line.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.16
If EDV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Evolution Mining to report 187koz production in the December quarter and is forecasting 759koz for FY26 vs guidance of 710-780koz. EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 21% and by 26% for FY27.

Hold maintained. Target rises to $12.45 from $10.50.

Target price is $12.45 Current Price is $13.12 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.57, suggesting downside of -14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FLT as Overweight (1) -

Ahead of the February/March reporting season, Morgan Stanley highlights high-conviction small- and mid-cap ideas for earnings and relative performance in 2026. Flight Centre Travel figures on top of the list.

The company stands out on improving earnings momentum, with guidance implying a more favourable 1H/2H skew, an upgrade cycle emerging, the broker highlights. The completed Iglu acquisition has prompted a lift in FY27-28 EPS forecasts.

The broker reckons valuation remains undemanding at 15x FY26 estimated PE, falling to 12x in FY27, supporting buybacks. Upside not fully priced, in the broker's view, includes a more favourable corporate competitive landscape and structurally higher margins driven by productivity gains.

Overweight. Target rises to $16.50 from $15.40. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.69 Difference: $0.81
If FLT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.79, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley reckons Fortescue's Hematite price realisation outperformed consensus in the December quarter as low-grade discounts narrowed, though C1 costs are seen slightly higher due to elevated strip ratios.

The broker's forecasts for Pilbara hematite production and shipments are in line with expectations, while Iron Bridge production is expected to slightly lag, but shipments beat on assumed destocking.

Iron Bridge realised prices likely remained strong at 99% of the benchmark, in the broker's view.

Rating downgraded to Underweight from Overweight. $19.75 target. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $19.75 Current Price is $22.82 Difference: minus $3.07 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.82, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GLF as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans transferred coverage of Gemlife Communities to Declan Carroll.

The analyst highlights Gemlife's strong development pipeline, settlement growth as the key near-term earnings driver, attractive build economics, and community operations margins above peers.

Earnings forecasts are modestly revised lower, with net profit trimmed -5% for FY25 and by -2% for FY26  to align with pro forma forecasts, with outer-year estimates largely unchanged.

Accumulate. Target rises to $5.70 from $5.40.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: $0.61
If GLF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMD as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Genesis Minerals to report 74koz production in the December quarter and is forecasting 327koz, with updated guidance from the company expected with 1H26 results. EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 25% and by 18% for FY27.

In a separate report, the broker explores options to either grow production organically via two mill expansions or pursue consolidation with Vault Minerals ((VAU)) to create a large-scale Leonora asset. In the absence of a confirmed deal, the broker adopts the organic expansion option as its base case.

Accumulate remains for Genesis. Target rises to $8.40 from $7.30.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $7.30 Difference: $1.1
If GMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.66, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights the rise in the spodumene (SC6) price by 165% since mid-October to a current spot price of US$2,200/t.

PLS Group ((PLS)) is viewed as most likely to capture the upside from the higher SC6 pricing as the group can restart Ngungaju in four months at a low capital cost.

In contrast, Liontown's ((LTR)) 4mtpa plan is expected to take between 12-18 months to achieve production.

The broker upgrades SC6 FY26 and FY27 price forecasts by 62% and 13% to US$1,680/t and US$1,330/t, respectively.

IGO Ltd continues to focus on the successful ramp up of CGP-3 before construction commences on CGP-4. Upside risk is seen for the share price if the miner can resolve the TLEA JV structure.

Target price is upgraded to $9.30 from $5.60 with no change to Neutral rating. 

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: $0.42
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.43, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley's forecast for IGO Ltd's Greenbushes production is slightly below consensus in the December quarter, but cost estimates are also lower. Shipments and realised prices are seen beating expectations on destocking and a sharp spodumene price rebound.

The broker reckons Kwinana production exceeded consensus but remains challenged, while Nova delivered better near-term output and costs despite end-of-life variability.

Key watch points include CGP3 ramp-up and first shipment, JV discussions at Kwinana, and updates on the post-Nova growth pathway and Forrestania divestment.

Target price $8.40. Underweight maintained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.43, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

For the December quarter, Morgan Stanley's forecast for Iluka Resources' synthetic rutile (SR) sales is -5% below consensus after guidance was withdrawn. The forecast for Z/R/SR production is 5% above consensus on higher zircon output.

The broker's zircon pricing forecast is modestly ahead of consensus but softer q/q, with rutile and SR pricing below expectations amid weak markets.

Key watch points are updates on Balranald’s production start and construction progress at the Eneabba refinery.

Overweight.Target price $7.30. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $0.27
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.23, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Iluka Resources to report weak revenue in the December quarter from low sales and softer prices, with the quarterly expected to provide insight into mineral sands pricing and market conditions. Focus will also be on Balranald commissioning progress.

Sharp downgrades made to FY26 and FY27 EPS forecasts. No change to Sell rating and $6 target price.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.23, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates INR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

Speculative Buy rating and 35c target price are unchanged for ioneer.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.12
If INR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie raises Karoon Energy's FY2025 EPS forecast by 2.3% on marginally higher Bauna oil production, with the 2026 forecast lowered by -0.7%.

Target price unchanged at $1.65 with a Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.07
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LM8 as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes the updated feasibility study for Lunnon Metals' Lady Herial gold deposit, which forecasts pre-tax operating cash flow of $40.4m based on a gold price of $6,250/oz.

The board is now in a position to make the final investment decision.

The Buy, High Risk and 80c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.31
If LM8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LOT as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

No revisions to Lotus Resources' FY26-27 EPS forecasts. Speculative Buy rating and 38c target price are also unchanged.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.17
If LOT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTR as Sell (5) -

Citi highlights the rise in the spodumene (SC6) price by 165% since mid-October to a current spot price of US$2,200/t.

PLS Group ((PLS)) is viewed as most likely to capture the upside from the higher SC6 pricing as the group can restart Ngungaju in four months at a low capital cost.

In contrast, Liontown's 4mtpa plan is expected to take between 12-18 months to achieve production.

The broker upgrades SC6 FY26 and FY27 price forecasts by 62% and 13% to US$1,680/t and US$1,330/t, respectively.

A Sell rating on Liontown is retained with an upgrade in target price to $1.70 from 50c.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting downside of -25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects Lynas Rare Earths' December quarter NdPr production to be well below consensus due to Kalgoorlie power outages. Some offset is seen from higher REO sales from inventory and stronger pricing on HRE and NdPr.

The broker expects pricing to outperform consensus on improved HRE mix and recent NdPr strength.

Key watch points include new sales agreements, project progress (Seadrift, Malaysia HRE plant), and resolution of Kalgoorlie power issues.

Rating upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target $17.55. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $17.55 Current Price is $15.48 Difference: $2.07
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.64, suggesting downside of -16.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects subdued December quarter NdPr output from Lynas Rare Earths following its November warning on Kalgoorlie power outages. Focus will be on updates to the use of proceeds from the $932m equity raise and progress on MoUs with JS Link and Noveon.

EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 16% and by 23% for FY27.

Sell maintained. Target unchanged at $10.50.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $15.48 Difference: minus $4.98 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.64, suggesting downside of -16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MAD as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter upgrades Mader Group to Buy from Hold, following recent fall in the share price. Target unchanged at $9.

The analyst believes consensus net profit after tax earnings estimates for FY26 at $67.6m are conservative and forecasts $69.6m versus guidance at $65m.

Multiple indications infer there is a positive backdrop in North America for picking up new business, with the US mining complex improving notably since the 2024 Presidential election.

The group's key markets have experienced good growth over July-November 2025, with coal production up 4.4% y/y, copper up 15.9%, lime up 10.8%, and oil sands up 3%.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: $1.23
If MAD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MLX as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Metals X's December-quarter production to improve q/q as miner recruitment lifts jumbo utilisation. EPS forecast for FY2026 lifted by 14% and by 62% for FY2027.

Buy maintained. Target unchanged at $1.05.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If MLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

Over the December quarter, Navigator Global Investments achieved a slightly better than expected update according to Ord Minnett. AUM grew 1.6%, ex the sales impact of Bardin Hill, Navigator strategically increased AUM by 2%.

The rise was achieved on a 7% increase in AUM for strategic private markets, with key funds achieving better returns also. Northrock generated 9.69% over 2025.

The analyst now forecasts net profit after tax for FY26 of US$78.2m. Target lifts to $3.70 from $3.50. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.58
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.40, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Northern Star Resources to report 348koz production in the December quarter and is forecasting 2020koz for FY26, well above the guidance of 1700-1850koz. EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 6% and by 19% for FY27.

Accumulate maintained. Target rises to $28.20 from $27.00.

Target price is $28.20 Current Price is $26.83 Difference: $1.37
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.69, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ONE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Oneview Healthcare announced around EUR1.4m in operating cash flow from circa EUR3.5m in cash receipts, with a cash balance of EUR4.8m in its 4Q2025 trading update, Bell Potter observes.

Positively, the broker remarks cash receipts rose 30% q/q and around 130% y/y, which marks a second quarter of cash improvement.

The company did not raise any equity in 2025, which the analyst had expected, and this is now flagged for 2026 at around EUR10m.

Target price is raised to 50c from 25c and retains a Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.11
If ONE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

At the December quarterly, Morgan Stanley expects Paladin Energy's U3O8 production to slightly lag consensus as feed grades vary duringLanger Heinrich Miner's transition to full mining. Costs are expected to rise q/q as operations restart.

The broker expects realised uranium prices to beat consensus on stronger December quarter pricing and renewed contracting activity. Key watch point is progress on the Patterson Lake South EIS.

Overweight. Target price $12.05.Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $12.05 Current Price is $11.11 Difference: $0.94
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.22, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDN as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Paladin Energy's December quarter production to be modest due to G-pit stripping, with FY26 output 2H-weighted and costs elevated. Key watch points are G-pit stripping progress and stockpile U recoveries.

No change to Sell rating and $7.50 target price.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $11.11 Difference: minus $3.61 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.22, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights the rise in the spodumene (SC6) price by 165% since mid-October to a current spot price of US$2,200/t.

PLS Group is viewed as most likely to capture the upside from the higher SC6 pricing as the group can restart Ngungaju in four months at a low capital cost.

In contrast, Liontown's ((LTR)) 4mtpa plan is expected to take between 12-18 months to achieve production.

The broker upgrades SC6 FY26 and FY27 price forecasts by 62% and 13% to US$1,680/t and US$1,330/t, respectively.

Target price for PLS Group is raised to $5.25 from $3.25 with no change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.68 Difference: $0.57
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.39, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects PLS Group's Pilgangoora spodumene production in the December quarter to come in line with consensus but lower q/q due to maintenance. Shipments are seen slightly weaker, yet prices materially stronger on a spodumene rebound.

The broker reckons unit costs remain well-controlled, while the Posco JV ramp-up is pushed to 2027 as PLS prioritises spodumene sales.

Key watch points include a potential Ngungaju restart and progress on the Colina feasibility study.

Target $5.25. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.68 Difference: $0.57
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.39, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Pantoro Gold to report 26koz production in the December quarter and is forecasting 102koz for FY26 vs guidance of 100-110koz. EPS forecast for FY27 lifted by 19% and EBITDA  by 17%.

Buy maintained. Target rises to $7.30 from $6.40.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $5.22 Difference: $2.08
If PNR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.89, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates POL as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker notes Polymetals Resources' December quarter production was disrupted by October fatalities and staffing changes. However, access to high-grade UNL silver and plans to develop the Deep Zinc Lode from late FY26 underpin a strong medium-term free cash flow outlook.

EPS forecasts for FY26-27 lifted sharply. Speculative Buy. Target rises to $1.75 from $1.35.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.56
If POL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

QBE Insurance remains the preferred sector exposure for Citi, with the insurer expected to achieve a stable combined operating ratio and moderate growth. This is considered appealing relative to the stock's valuation in the upcoming interim results.

Regarding domestic general insurers, the analyst prefers Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) with scope for a higher dividend and better margin from its reinsurance coverage compared to Suncorp Group ((SUN)).

For private health insurers, a possible change to the benchmark pricing model for hospitals and 2026 approved pricing are potential concerns, but a lot is already priced into nib Holdings ((NIB)) share price.

QBE Insurance is rated Buy. Target price $23.70.

Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $19.85 Difference: $3.85
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.74, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's forecast for Rio Tinto's Pilbara attributable production and shipments in the December quarter are slightly above consensus. The company is on track to meet the low end of 2025 guidance and flat 2026 production guidance, the broker highlights.

Copper output is seen meeting the consensus, with Escondida strength offset by weaker Kennecott. Key watch points include progress at Rincon and updates on Simandou ramp-up and remaining capital works.

Equal-weight rating. Target price $138. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $138.00 Current Price is $148.25 Difference: minus $10.25 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $135.83, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Ramelius Resources to report 46koz production in the December quarter and is forecasting 195koz for FY26 vs guidance of 185-205koz. EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 12% and by 26% for FY27.

Buy maintained. Target rises to $5.10 from $4.40.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.54 Difference: $0.56
If RMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades Reliance Worldwide to Neutral from Buy with a $4.25 target price. The broker expects the company to be challenged over the next year by the copper price spike, citing history as a good guide to the impacts on its P&L.

The industry prefers customers in the US, and as such the size and speed of the possible price rises are judged to be potential headwinds for Reliance.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.2
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

At the December quarter report, Morgan Stanley expects South32's Australian manganese production and sales to beat consensus as operations ramped post-June quarter restart. 

Cannington silver, lead and zinc production are expected to exceed consensus despite variable grades. Worsley production is seen meeting consensus, but sales lag consensus by -3%, impacted by inventory movements.

Key watch points include Mozal power contract updates and progress at Hermosa (Clark decline) and Spence Growth (fourth grinding line FID in 1Q2026).

Overweight retained. Target price $4.70. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.16 Difference: $0.54
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SBM as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects St. Barbara to report 12koz production in the December quarter and is forecasting 48koz for FY26, well below guidance of 54-70koz. EPS forecast for FY26 downgraded by -52%, but more than offset by a 105% jump to FY27 forecast.

Hold maintained. Target rises to 65c from 58c.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.09
If SBM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes Sandfire Resources' group copper-equivalent guidance for FY26 is unchanged at 157kt but skewed to 2H. The broker sees Motheo guidance at risk after a weak 1H and 2Q disruptions, partly offset by stronger 2H copper output.

Key watch points include Motheo operational recovery, MATSA zinc performance, and progress at A4, Motheo TSF Stage 3 and the A1 drilling/PFS.

Underweight. Target $16.15. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $16.15 Current Price is $19.15 Difference: minus $3 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.70, suggesting downside of -12.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Sandfire Resources to report 28.5kt copper-equivalent production in the December quarter and is forecasting 107.2kt for FY26 vs guidance of 102-114kt. EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 68% and by 101% for FY27.

Accumulate rating for Sandfire. Target rises to $20.50 from $17.30.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $19.15 Difference: $1.35
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.70, suggesting downside of -12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFX as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker notes depressed mineral sands prices are severely impacting Sheffield Resources' Kimberley Mineral Sands, with Thunderbird’s discounted cash flow of 32c outweighed by debt and corporate costs (33c). Ongoing Yansteel support and lender relief are critical to maintain viability, leaving the company uninvestable at present.

Sharp downgrades made to FY26 and FY27 EPS forecasts. No change to Hold rating and 11c target price.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.03
If SFX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Stanmore Resources to report 3.7Mt Met coal production in the December quarter and is forecasting 13.8Mt for FY25 vs guidance of 13.8-14.2Mt. EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 1% and by 85% for FY26.

Buy maintained. Target rises to $3.70 from $2.60.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.7
If SMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SSM as Buy (1) -

Looking ahead to Service Stream's 1H26 earnings, the Citi analyst anticipates another period of earnings growth on the prior year.

Feedback from industry infers competitive actions remain "largely rational", with management seeking to capitalise on better operational productivity and efficiency gains through improved procurement.

The market is anticipated to focus on changes to margins for utilities and how the defence ramp up is progressing.

Buy. Target unchanged at $2.65. Service Stream's conservative approach is likely to offer qualitative earnings guidance for FY26 at the interim result.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.47
If SSM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 23.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie lifts the 2025 EPS forecast for Santos by 3.5% on higher GLNG sales from 4Q2025, which is the strongest quarter seasonally.

Assumed lower GLNG output after the gas review has resulted in the analyst lowering the 2026 EPS forecast by -6.2%, with a downgrade in the target price by -3.1% to $7.75.

The stock remains Outperform rated.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $6.23 Difference: $1.52
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.33, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley trimmed Super Retail's FY26 EPS forecast by -6% and FY27 by -5.5%.

Target cut to $14.0 from $14.4. Underweight retained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $14.76 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.32, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VAU as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Vault Minerals to report 88koz production in the December quarter and is forecasting 353koz for FY26 vs guidance of 332-360koz. EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 24% and by 25% for FY27.

Buy maintained. Target rises to $7.10 from $6.00.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $5.91 Difference: $1.19
If VAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates WC8 as Buy (1) -

Wildcat Resources December quarter drilling results showed the expansion of its Pilbara lithium prospects, with Shaw and Partners highlighting the identification of a large, open spodumene-bearing system at Bolt Cutter Central.

Diamond drilling is flagged for early 2026, while the Tabba Tabba project has moved to advanced metallurgical testwork and strategic land acquisition, as well as formalising the Native Title Agreement.

Buy, High Risk retained and target unchanged at 70c.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.25
If WC8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie tweaks EPS forecasts for Woodside Energy, lowering 2025 by -1.1% due to lower LNG and production, and raising 2026 by 4.3% on higher Scarborough production, offset by lower North West Shelf.

Neutral rating and $25 target remain unchanged.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $23.68 Difference: $1.32
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.81, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WGX as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Westgold Resources to report 90koz production in the December quarter and is forecasting 370koz for FY26 vs guidance of 345-385koz. EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 21% and by 26% for FY27.

Buy maintained. Target rises to $7.65 from $6.60.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $6.65 Difference: $1
If WGX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

For the December quarter, Morgan Stanley's forecast for Whitehaven Coal's group run-of-mine coal production is 6% above consensus. Production is expected to rebound after the September quarter weather impacts, led by Narrabri and Blackwater.

Saleable production and equity sales are also expected to beat consensus on stronger Narrabri output. The forecasts for achieved pricing for both met and thermal coal are broadly in line with expectations.

Rating downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target $8.75. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.03, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett's updated December quarter mark-to-market drives broadly higher commodity price assumptions. Strong upward revisions have occurred for base metals (copper, zinc, tin), gold, silver and met coal on supply disruptions and demand resilience, with modest uranium pricing upgrades.

These changes lift targets for copper/gold-exposed equities, while mineral sands exposures are downgraded, with mixed implications for coal stocks.

The broker expects Whitehaven Coal to report 6.3Mt total coal production in the December quarter and is forecasting 25.2Mt for FY26 vs guidance of 23.3-26.1Mt. EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 95% and by 37% for FY26.

Accumulate maintained. Target rises to $9.50 from $7.60.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: $0.62
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.03, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

UBS points to the -36% share price retracement for Zip Co since October, due to the changing US regulatory backdrop, including a general inquiry into BNPL and President Trump's call for a 10% rate cap on credit card APRs.

Re the latter, the broker's US analyst believes the rate cap on credit cards could be positive for BNPL, with lower credit availability pushing customers to BNPL. It remains to be seen whether rate caps will apply to BNPL transaction fees if they are considered interest.

Extrapolating out for Zip Co, the analyst estimates the effective "interest" rate on the average transaction size of US$138 would be circa 24%. Bad debts are expected to normalise at around 1.63% in 1H26 versus 1.65% in 1Q26.

Zip Co is due to report 1H26 results on February 19. Buy rating retained. Target moves lower to $5.20 from $5.40.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: $2.12
If ZIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 61.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources