Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AD8 as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie lowers FY25-28 EPS estimates for Audinate Group by -6%, -509%, -55%, and  -32% on lower sales forecasts and potential for negative operating leverage.

Despite faith in the long-term penetration story, the broker's target falls to $7.70 from $10.20 and the Neutral rating is maintained. Both FY25 and FY26 are now expected to be loss-making.

The broker highlights ongoing discounting on AVIO adaptors, which represent around 20% of group sales, and only minor revenue contributions from product launches in FY25.

The analyst's channel checks for DVS Pro also highlight a preference for the perpetual licences still offered on Gold and Platinum tiers, as opposed to management's preferred subscription model.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.34 Difference: $0.36
If AD8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.48, suggesting upside of 31.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALL as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage on Aristocrat Leisure with a Buy rating, citing a favourable market environment for high-quality large caps on the ASX, noting the company is trading at a historically high valuation.

The broker highlights revenue in the Interactive division is directly leveraged to growth in both iGaming and iLottery gross gaming revenue (GGR), both of which are forecast to grow at compound annual growth rates (CAGR) in the US of 26% and 21%, respectively.

In the two other divisions, Aristocrat is the number one supplier of electronic gaming machines (EGMs) into lease markets, while Pixel United is a top two developer and publisher of free-to-play social casino games on mobile and web platforms.

A target of $83 is set.

Target price is $83.00 Current Price is $73.72 Difference: $9.28
If ALL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $74.21, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALX as Buy (1) -

The announcement from the French parliament on Finance Law 2025, which introduces a temporary additional tax for 2025 on companies with revenue over EUR1bn in either 2024 or 2025, is viewed by Citi as a positive outcome for Atlas Arteria and the APRR.

The broker highlights an increase in the estimated income tax to 36% from 25%, the usual rate, for 2025, which should enable the toll road operator to retain a flat 40c distribution in 2025.

Target slips to $5.70 from $5.80. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Buy, High Risk.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: $0.65
If ALX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Ansell reported a robust 1H25 result, with revenue up 30% and sitting above consensus by 12%, UBS highlights.

Earnings before interest and tax, EPS, and DPS all came in better than consensus estimates.

The analyst notes some of the result is due to a recovery from de-stocking in the previous corresponding period. Management guided to slower growth in 2H25, with possible forex "headwinds."

No change to Neutral rating and $36 target price.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $34.93 Difference: $1.07
If ANN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.84, suggesting downside of -15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBN as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett explains Baby Bunting has reported a fall in return on capital employed to 3.7% in FY24 from 12.6% in FY20, with returns below the cost of capital.

Due to changes in the management team and a focus on turning around the business to growth with better sales in baby goods and utilising the company's market position, the broker believes improvements have started but more is needed for better returns.

The Accumulate rating and $2.15 target price are maintained.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: $0.275
If BBN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Sell (5) -

Citi previews the upcoming earnings report for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank due on February 17. The analyst expects net interest margin to come in below consensus by -2bps, which is anticipated to be offset by reduced opex and lower-than-expected bad and doubtful debts.

The analyst believes management will offer a more tepid outlook on net interest margins, which may result in lower consensus earnings forecasts.

The stock remains Sell rated with an unchanged $9.75 target price.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $13.50 Difference: minus $3.75 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.94, suggesting downside of -19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights both BHP Group and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) remain challenged for production growth, resulting in the market ascribing a lower valuation to both majors.

The analyst believes Rio Tinto has the upper hand on production growth but is reliant on the success of expanding its lithium operations.

BHP Group remains the preferred stock due to stronger exposure to Citi's copper price forecasts of US$10k/t and US$11k/t for 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Target price of $46 and Buy rating are retained.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $40.48 Difference: $5.52
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.10, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BTH as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley doubles its target for Bigtincan Holdings to 22c, now aligned to the late-2024 bid by Vector Capital Management. The Equal-weight rating is maintained. Industry view: In line.

Upside risks include an improved business performance or a superior bid, while downside risks could emanate from non-completion of the transaction or adverse changes resulting in a repricing of the deal, the report states.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.015
If BTH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

In a first glance at today's 1H result by CAR Group, Citi observes profit (NPATA) missed the broker and consensus forecasts by -2% and -3%, respectively. Earnings (EBITDA) margins rose by 75bps year-on-year.

While earnings only missed the broker's estimate by -1% (consensus -3%), the analysts are concerned by the overall quality of the result given costs were taken below the line and capex was higher-than-expected.

Citi later concedes the result was quite resilient given tough industry conditions in the US and taking into consideration the Private segment in Australia was normalising.

As anticipated by the broker, group FY25 revenue and earnings guidance for ‘good’ growth was reiterated.

Buy. Target $42.40.

Target price is $42.40 Current Price is $41.03 Difference: $1.37
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.75, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAR as Buy (1) -

UBS believes CAR Group reported a "credible" 1H25 result against what the analyst describes a challenging macro enviorment on first inspection.

The broker highlights dealer revenue grew 10% year-on-year with private up 7% and media rising 10%.  Excluding LatAm, aspects of the business were weaker than anticipated and the stock is expected to trade lower.

In term of management guidance, good growth was flagged for FY25 across revenue, earnings and net profit after tax with gross margins slightly below the broker's forecast.

US revenue outlook has been lowered with a delay in price rise to 2H25 and LatAm is flagged to generate "strong growth" and Asia "good growth".

UBS' FY25 and Fy25 EPS forecasts sit below consensus. Buy rated. Target $42.50.

Target price is $42.50 Current Price is $41.03 Difference: $1.47
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.75, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Citi previews the upcoming earnings report for CommBank on February 12 and believes the bank will report earnings and a dividend that meet consensus expectations.

The analyst forecasts net interest margin sitting -2bps below consensus, offset by softer bad and doubtful debts and higher average interest-earning assets.

Citi lifts the dividend forecasts by 2% for FY25-FY27 with an increased dividend payout due to a reduced buyback rate. The analyst forecasts the 1H25 dividend at 220c against consensus at 224c.

Sell rating and $91.50 target unchanged.

Target price is $91.50 Current Price is $162.67 Difference: minus $71.17 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $104.22, suggesting downside of -36.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Buy (1) -

Citi reconfirms a level of comfort with the Buy rating on Collins Foods post the company's trading update and Yum! 4Q results.

The broker explains Yum!'s result inferred KFC Australia sales advanced 11% in 4Q 2024 year-on-year, representing growth of 2% on the previous quarter.

Citi also notes Yum! observed some improvement in markets affected by the Middle East wars. The analyst forecasts a recovery trend for Collins Foods' Netherlands restaurants.

Buy rating maintained with a $9.38 target price.

Target price is $9.38 Current Price is $8.35 Difference: $1.03
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.75, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

Post Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's 1H25 report, Citi believes there is upside risk to FY25 EPS and DPS guidance.

The analyst points to a plateauing in asset valuations, as NTA re-valued down by only -1% over the period, and EPS should be assisted by the $50m share buyback in 1H25.

Citi highlights the REIT's gearing remains high at 39% with an average cost of debt at 4.1%, which sits below borrowing costs of around 5.5%, posing upside risks to interest costs, offset by the likelihood of a reduction in interest rates.

Target price lifts to $4 from $3.70. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $0.15
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's operating earnings per security (OEPS) beat Macquarie's forecast by 4% due to lower-than-expected operating expenses and finance costs.

Management reaffirmed FY25 OEPS guidance of 25c, though the broker highlights a key headwind from a -$35m reduction in net property income due to the completion of the divestment program, which included around $760m in completed sales.

A $20m benefit in net interest expense provides a partial offset to this impact, observes the broker.

Macquarie raises the target price to $3.73 from $3.64 and maintains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $3.73 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CLW as Equal-weight (3) -

Following conversations with management of Charter Hall Long WALE REIT after 1H results, Morgan Stanley assesses greater confidence around asset valuations compared to just six to twelve months ago.

Following a "sound" 1H result with no negative surprises, the broker suggests the focus should now be on earnings growth and the current -15% discount to net tangible assets.

Profit of $89.8m was in line with the broker's $89.1m estimate (consensus $87.6m) and FY25 earnings guidance of 25cpu is unchanged.

The $4.55 target and Equal-weight are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $0.7
If CLW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CLW as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes Charter Hall Long WALE REIT announced 1H25 financial metrics that met the analyst's expectations.

The REIT acquired a 50% stake in two hotels over the period for -$11.5m, with both hotels leased to Endeavour Group ((EDV)), the analyst notes.

Ord Minnett highlights cap rates seem to have stabilised, and the REIT continues to trade at a discount to NTA of -17%, with some positive tailwinds from lower interest rates, although gearing increased to 39% from 37.6% at the end of FY24.

A Hold rating is retained. Target tweaks higher by 7c to $3.54.

Target price is $3.54 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's 1H25 operating earnings of 12.5c per security proved 3% higher than UBS' forecast and 2% higher than consensus, driven by divestment and buyback timing.

With valuations now at the trough, the broker thinks the focus will turn to growing earnings. The broker has incorporated the latest result and revised inflation and interest rate assumptions (one cut in 2H25, two each in FY26 and FY27) into the forecasts.

The broker notes the REIT's growth will be muted without rate cuts, and even if there are cuts, balance sheet constraints will likely prevent substantial acquisitions to lift earnings growth beyond the sector level. In other words, the broker sees better value elsewhere.

Target rises to $4.18 from $4.15. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $4.18 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $0.33
If CLW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes the share price reaction to Domino's Pizza Enterprises' pre-release of 1H25 results, which were in line with expectations, was a short squeeze as this was the fourth most shorted stock on the ASX.

The company announced 205 store closures to save $16m annually from FY26, with a large number in Japan, which largely contributed to below-the-line expenses of around -$97m, the analyst notes.

Same-store sales have commenced 2H25 strongly, rising 4.3% against a consensus forecast of 2.6% for the second half. France was highlighted as experiencing ongoing challenges, and Japan reported a robust Christmas trading period, Citi highlights.

Growth in A&NZ weakened. Citi removes the downside risk 90-day view, which was initiated on Dec 10.

No change to Neutral rating and $33.25 target price.

Target price is $33.25 Current Price is $35.93 Difference: minus $2.68 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.51, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie raises its target price for Domino’s Pizza Enterprises to $35.10 from $28.20, driven equally by higher earnings forecasts and a lift in the assumed terminal growth rate. The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform.

The broker attributes these changes to a rapid strategic turnaround, with management refining its focus on franchisee sales and long-term network performance.

A minimum of $34m per annum in network savings has been identified, with proceeds set to be reinvested into franchisees, according to the broker.

Management sees little risk of further store closures beyond the approximately 200 already announced.

Target price is $35.10 Current Price is $35.93 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.51, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Overweight (1) -

Domino's Pizza Enterprises will close 205 loss-making stores, mostly in Q4, and has identified -$18.6m of annualised network savings, separate from store closure benefits, observes Morgan Stanley.

Management now expects 1H25 profit (NPBT) within the range of $84-$86m, which the analysts note compares to the consensus forecast for $83.5m.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating. Target price $40. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $35.93 Difference: $4.07
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.51, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DMP as Hold (3) -

Morgans highlights Domino's Pizza's now regular pre-reporting trading update was better than feared with underlying profit before tax in line with consensus and no major change/reset of the business announced.

The company identified $34.1m of annualised EBIT savings for the network, with more to come. The broker reckons Domino's is taking positive steps in the right direction but a clearer picture of what future organic top-line growth will look like going forward is key.

The broker lowered FY25 and FY26 EBIT forecasts by -1% and -0.2% with lower store openings offset by stronger margins. Target price rises to $32.7 from $30.70.

Hold rating remains.

Target price is $32.70 Current Price is $35.93 Difference: minus $3.23 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.51, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes the 1H25 trading update from Domino's Pizza Enterprises, reporting net profit before tax of $84m-$86m, which is above consensus expectations but below the analyst's forecast of $87.4m.

The broker believes the rally in the share price reflected a sense of relief over ongoing downside concerns to 1H25 earnings for Domino's and a reset of expectations by the new CEO.

Same-store sales growth for the first five weeks at 4.3% is viewed positively by UBS, with the analyst noting ongoing store closures, now at 411. Management is also focusing on operating efficiencies.

Overall, a higher valuation is likely to be ascribed to the company as earnings concerns are alleviated and financial metrics improve.

No change to Neutral rating. Target rises to $36 from $31.50.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $35.93 Difference: $0.07
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.51, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EVN as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage on Evolution Mining with a $6.65 target and Buy rating, citing management’s strong track record in executing on its growth strategy over the past decade.

The broker views recent investments as well timed, including the acquisition of 80% of the Northparkes copper-gold mine and the expansion of the 100%-owned Mungari Gold Operations.

With peak capex now passed, the broker expects increasing free cash flow, balance sheet deleveraging, and higher dividend distributions, supported by near-unhedged gold and copper price exposures.

Bell Potter sets a $6.65 target and initiates coverage with a Buy rating.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $5.91 Difference: $0.74
If EVN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.61, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FND as Add (1) -

Morgans highlights Findi's new Brown Label ATM deal with a new customer --Union Bank of India-- reflects a diversification of the company's client base. 

The contract is for seven years, involves capex spend of around -$12m and is expected to deliver a return of 18% over the full contract term, as per Morgans' commentary.

The broker has upgraded FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts by 10% after incorporating the latest deal and some tweaking of broader earnings forecasts.

Target price is raised to $7.68 from $7.17. Add rating remains.

Target price is $7.68 Current Price is $4.31 Difference: $3.37
If FND meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GQG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes 1Q25 funds under management (FUM) update from GQG Partners, rising 4.8% on the previous month, resulting in a year-on-year lift of 26.3%.

The broker remarks net inflows returned to positive, up in January by US$1.7bn, with net flows rising 15.8% on a rolling 12-month basis.

Macquarie expects net flows for 2H25 of US$2bn, inferring slightly lower net flows per month against previous years.

US equity FUM rose 10.8% month-on-month, international was up 5.9%, and global increased 6.4%. Emerging market FUM declined -0.7% on the previous month, the analyst notes.

Outperform rating and $3 target.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.74
If GQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates INA as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS downgrades Ingenia Communities to Neutral from Buy with a higher target price of $6.15 from $5.79. The downgrade is due to strong share price performance.

The analyst anticipates an increase in volumes in FY25 following more normal production and additional sites becoming available. Robust growth in manufactured housing estates is flagged, with new unit demand outpacing supply, UBS explains.

The broker raises EPS estimates by 16% and 11% for FY25/FY26, respectively. While the market is anticipating earnings upgrades, the analyst believes attention should be focused on any cyclical uplift in the housing market post rate cuts and improved operational efficiency.

Neutral. Target $6.15.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $0.36
If INA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.07, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Citi's first take on JB Hi-Fi's 1H25 is earnings before interest and tax came in above the consensus estimate by 3% but below the broker's top-of-the-market forecast by -4%.

Sales generated were above Citi's estimate by 1%, although Australian gross margins were lower than anticipated. The broker highlights a robust performance from The Good Guys, with like-for-like sales up 11.9% against the broker's forecast of 5%.

Management's robust cost control offset increased competitive actions and pressure on JB Hi-Fi Australia's gross margin, which declined by -17bps versus the analyst's forecast of up 20bps.

Like-for-like sales in January rose 7.1%, with The Good Guys up 5.9%. On balance, concerns over a weaker gross margin are expected to be countered by a strong start to 2H25.

Buy rated with a $110 target price.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $102.45 Difference: $7.55
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $81.74, suggesting downside of -16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Sell (5) -

On first inspection, UBS notes 1H25 net profit after tax for JB Hi-Fi came in above consensus by 2%, driven by Australia and The Good Guys, which were above the market but below the broker's expectations.

Competition and the earnings mix weighed on margins, the analyst notes, offset by the cost of doing business/sales, which improved.

The company reported robust like-for-like sales in January across all its brands, UBS states.

No change to Sell rating and $72 target price.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $102.45 Difference: minus $30.45 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $81.74, suggesting downside of -16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JLG as Neutral (3) -

The Citi analyst points to downside risks for Johns Lyng's 1H25 earnings as industry sources suggest lower claims and benign weather, as well as tough comparisons from 1H24 Northern Rivers work, are likely to weigh on results.

Work from the US has also been "slow," the broker states. With a less robust 1H25 and a sufficiently strong balance sheet, Citi views the likelihood of growth by acquisition as likely for the company.

Management is expected to offer feedback on 2H25, including whether recent adverse weather events, including the Californian fires and the storms across the east coast of Australia, provide sufficient work to reach FY25 guidance for Business as Usual, the broker explains.

Neutral rating retained. Target slips to $3.95 from $4.55.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.4
If JLG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.49, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates KYP as Initiation of coverage with Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage on Kinatico, a provider of compliance software solutions, with a Buy, High-risk rating and a 28c target, citing multiple structural tailwinds. One key solution provided is employee onboarding for complex industries.

The broker expects tailwinds from an application and data security compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15%. The analysts forecast management will grow revenue to $33.9m by FY27, with projected FY24-27 Saas Revenue CAGR of 41%.

For HR compliance, the broker points to additional structural drivers, including the Security of Critical Infrastructure Act (SOCI) amendments and the Aged Care Royal Commission.

According to Shaw, automation, cost rationalisation, and outsourcing should drive a material uplift in earnings (EBITDA) for Kinatico.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.105
If KYP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LTR as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS highlights Liontown Resources' December quarter production was ahead of its own projections and costs were better than expected as the ramp-up at Kathleen Valley tracks ahead of expectation.

The broker has now raised FY25 and FY26 forecasts on increased confidence, lifting production estimates by 13% and 8%, and lowering costs by -26% and -11% respectively.

Additionally, the broker reckons the company funding looks more comfortable with $192m cash, a further $100m debt available, the ramp-up progressing well and spodumene prices trading better than expected.

Target price rises to 75c from 50c. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.095
If LTR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.79, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Following another road train rollover on the weekend, Morgan Stanley anticipates deleveraging will continue at Mineral Resources as alternative routes to the haul road are available to transport iron ore.

This is the fifth time a road train has rolled over and the second on the haul road, observes the broker.

Target $50. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $35.33 Difference: $14.67
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.51, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

Citi reiterates the Buy rating on Nick Scali post last week's 1H25 earnings, which came in above consensus by 15%, the broker states.

Management offered an "upbeat" commentary on the post-earnings conference call, with declining freight rates underpinning better gross margins in 2H25, while the store rollout in the UK is proceeding ahead of expectations, the analyst highlights.

Lower interest rates are anticipated to facilitate management gearing up the balance sheet for an improved store network across A&NZ, Citi notes.

Target stands at $15.31. Nick Scali is expected to benefit from falling interest rates in A&NZ, underwriting growth in revenue and better operating margins, the analyst explains.

Target price is $15.31 Current Price is $18.00 Difference: minus $2.69 (current price is over target).
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.57, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Nick Scali's gross margin percentage exceeded the broker's forecast by 110bps despite higher freight rates in the first half and a challenging trading environment.

Underlying profit beat management’s guidance by 28% at the mid-point.

The broker expects further UK margin upside in the 57-59% range once Nick Scali products are delivered to UK stores and highlights significant store rollout opportunities in A&NZ and the UK.

Macquarie raises the target price to $19.90 from $15.60 and maintains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $19.90 Current Price is $18.00 Difference: $1.9
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.57, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCK as Downgrade to Sell from Accumulate (5) -

Ord Minnett downgrades Nick Scali to Sell from Accumulate due to valuation concerns and lowers its target price to $14.50 from $15.

The analyst notes the company announced better-than-consensus 1H25 earnings and dividend per share, with higher-than-forecast results from Australia.

Deeper investigation suggests to the broker the company experienced a softer order book in 2Q25 and into January. Ord Minnett now forecasts revenue to fall in 2H25 by -6%, from previous growth of 6%.

Management pointed to ongoing volatility in 2H25, with higher-than-expected losses in the UK due to more refurbishments and new store openings.

Ord Minnett lowers EPS forecasts by -12% and -5% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $18.00 Difference: minus $3.5 (current price is over target).
If NCK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.57, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Sell (5) -

Citi observes 4Q 2024 results from Nufarm's peers, FMC and Corteva, where both companies reflected on conditions improving but volatility is likely to remain.

Corteva's results showed ongoing pricing pressure in crop protection in Latin America and parts of EMEA, even though volume growth improved, Citi notes. FMC also pointed to price declines and de-stocking, with dry weather in Mexico and Argentina.

The analyst retains a conservative estimate for Nufarm's crop protection earnings, below consensus by -$20m.

Citi continues to rate the stock as Sell with a $3.75 target price.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.19, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWS as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett upgrades News Corp to Accumulate from Hold with a new target price of $61 from $50.

The analyst notes the company recorded a robust 4Q 2024 while offering what is described as a mixed outlook for 2H25. Ord Minnett expects the US realty portal to benefit from a recovery in the property market at some stage.

Book publishing is anticipated to generate ongoing earnings growth in 2H25, though at a weaker clip than 1H25, while Dow Jones is expected to have more robust earnings due to improved business-to-business results, the broker states.

New media could be more challenging due to weakness in advertising across Australia and UK markets.

The broker lifts EPS estimates by 2% and 8% for FY25/FY26, respectively. Ord Minnett also increases the target price for REA Group to $260 from $240 post the earnings results.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $54.14 Difference: $6.86
If NWS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $58.17, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates QPM as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter intiates coverage on QPM Energy, highlighting its mature, 100%-owned Moranbah Gas Project (Coal Seam Gas) is delivering into long-term offtake arrangements with Dyno Nobel ((IPL)) and the Townsville Power Station (TPS).

Management's strategy is to maintain supply to Dyno and to operate the TPS and Moranbah Gas Project to firm renewable generation during the evening, thereby taking advantage of strong daily peak NEM prices, explains the broker.

The Dyno Nobel arrangement provides a stable revenue stream, observes the broker, and suggests peak price events on the NEM will provide earnings upside.

Bell Potter begins with a Buy rating and 11c target.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.05
If QPM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RDX as Overweight (1) -

The analysts at Morgan Stanley have been fielding questions from investors in Redox since initiating coverage late last year.

In explaining differentiation from peers, the broker highlights the mission-critical logistics role Redox plays for customers and suppliers, and the scale advantage of being the number one chemicals distributor by revenue domestically.

The analysts also explain a normalisation (i.e. rebound) in commodity chemical sales, despite lower margins, will still be both gross profit dollar and revenue growth accretive.

Overweight. Target $4.50. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.31 Difference: $0.19
If RDX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.68, suggesting downside of -13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REA as Hold (3) -

Morgans highlights REA Group's 1H25 result was a small beat versus consensus across most key metrics and was a strong result overall. CEO Owen Wilson’s retirement announcement came a surprise, the broker notes.

The broker left group EBITDA estimates across FY25-FY27 largely unchanged but a valuation roll-forward has resulted in a rise in the DCF-based target price.

Given at 29x FY26 EV/EBITDA, the company is trading one standard deviation rich versus its 10-year average, the broker is looking for a more attractive entry point.

Target price rises to $248 from $$215. Hold maintained.

Target price is $248.00 Current Price is $262.12 Difference: minus $14.12 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $265.43, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SCG as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS has lifted Scentre Group's earnings forecasts by an average 6% for FY25-30 after incorporating a -25bps rate cut in 1H25 and 4% from 2H25 onwards, and refinancing the hybrid notes, assuming a 230bps margin with the full $4bn reset over a 2.5yr period.

The broker has upgraded Scentre to Neutral from Sell, reflecting more resilient retail conditions vs its previous expectations and debt cost tailwinds. 

Target price rises to $3.74 from $3.53.

Target price is $3.74 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $0.07
If SCG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SIG as Neutral (3) -

Commenting after Friday's FY25 earnings (EBIT) guidance upgrade, Citi points to Sigma Healthcare's superior earnings growth outlook relative to retail peers. Merger synergies and operating leverage are expected to result in margin expansion.

The analysts now forecast a three-year earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% on a proforma basis, noting ample room for further market share gains, particularly from supermarkets.

The target rises to $2.90 from $2.50. The broker maintains a Neutral rating pending greater conviction in the longer-term earnings growth story, particularly the scope for international growth.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VFY as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes 1H25 results from Vitrafy Life Sciences met expectations post the company's 2Q25 and IPO details in November 2024.

The broker believes the company will announce more commercialisations in 2025, with updates from the SSI study in March and the US/AUS phase 1 due for completion in 3Q 2025.

With an estimated total addressable market of over US$94bn across bio-banks, cell cryopreservation, and animal breeding/aquaculture, which is expected to double by FY30, Ord Minnett remains upbeat on the company's outlook.

Speculative Buy retained with a target price of $2.30, down from $2.45.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.8
If VFY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources