Australian Broker Call

Deutsche Bank rates AGL as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank reduces FY20 earnings expectations because of an extended outage at Loy Yang A, which experienced an electrical malfunction on May 18.

Net profit estimates are reduced by -$60-100m. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $20.25 from $22.25.

Target price is $20.25 Current Price is $20.03 Difference: $0.22
If AGL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.17, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AHY as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse notes the pulp price has fallen -15% from its peak. European eucalyptus pulp has declined to around EUR780/t. The broker incorporates a further decline of -10% in euro terms. Meanwhile, retail scan data suggest tissue sales are solid in New Zealand over January-April.

While pulp prices are weaker, Credit Suisse notes the Australian dollar is unsupportive, and reduces the target to $1.10 from $1.25 as a result. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.22
If AHY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.00, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APX as Buy (1) -

Following the recent update Citi reiterates its Buy rating. Sales growth forecasts are increased for FY19-21 to 4.8%. After four months of ownership of Figure 8, Appen Ltd has upgraded earnings estimates to $85-90m.

Citi's confidence has increased after clarifying the benefits of the acquisition. Target is raised to $29.79 from $28.04.

Target price is $29.79 Current Price is $27.00 Difference: $2.79
If APX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Buy (1) -

A sharp pullback in the steel market has prompted the company to trim FY19 earnings (EBIT) guidance. While current spot prices signal downside risk to FY20 forecasts, Citi believes this is now priced in.

Meanwhile, the North Star expansion is on track and the company has commenced detailed design and engineering inputs. The broker also understands that BlueScope Steel has settled on its Port Kembla enterprise agreement.

Buy rating maintained along with a $14 target.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $2.27
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.63, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

The company's second half guidance is reduced by around -10% to "approaching $500m". Credit Suisse suggests the market is looking at just how low guidance can go for FY20.

US and Asian spot spreads continue to fall and look to be undermining the first half. Australian steel dispatches are also softer than the broker expected, although this could reflect the supply chain de-stocking that is always seen when steel prices fall.

Target is reduced to $15.00 from $15.90. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $3.27
If BSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.63, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates BSL as Hold (3) -

FY19 guidance has been reduced to earnings (EBIT) growth of 6% from 10%. Weaker US spreads and a soft market for building products are cited as the main reasons, although Asia is also weaker than expected.

Deutsche Bank believes this is also the start of volume declines in Australia, and North Star spreads are likely to fall another US$50/t by FY21. Hold rating maintained. Target is $11.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.63, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BSL as Underperform (5) -

Volume pressures in a few of its businesses and spread compression at North Star have led BlueScope Steel to lower earnings guidance from that provided in February. The broker has lowered forecasts in response.

The good news is the buyback will be extended, but despite solid cash generation supporting capital management, and despite an inexpensive valuation, the broker remains concerned about the earnings trajectory given cost pressures and volume pressures. Underperform retained. Target falls to $9.20 from $10.15.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: minus $2.53 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.63, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BSL as Equal-weight (3) -

The second half downgrade from the company was largely as Morgan Stanley expected, as steel spreads continue to decline. This also drives more significant downgrades to FY20-21 estimates.

The broker believes strong fundamentals, including a 15% free cash flow yield, provide value through the cycle but spreads need to improve for this to be realised.

Equal-weight maintained. Target is reduced to $12 from $17. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $0.27
If BSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.63, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Accumulate (2) -

As expected, the company has downgraded earnings guidance for FY19. The downgrade was less than Ord Minnett had anticipated, although FY20 estimates for EBIT are reduced by -20%.

Ord Minnett is concerned about the sanctioning of the North Star expansion in the present environment, as spreads are below viable levels and there are concerns about oversupply in the US.

The broker prefers the continuation of the buyback and suggests the North Star expansion should be deferred. Accumulate rating maintained. Target is reduced to $15 from $16.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $3.27
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.63, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Neutral (3) -

BlueScope Steel is forecasting 6% growth in earnings (EBIT) versus 10% previously. UBS believes the downgrade implies a -9% cut to second half earnings.

The broker is not surprised by the downgrade, given the known weakness in spreads. The company has also cited softer conditions in Asia and North America and weaker margins and volumes in buildings in North America.

UBS maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $12.20 from $13.00.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $0.47
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.63, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Neutral (3) -

While the focus of the strategy briefing was on cost reductions over the next four years, Citi believes the lack of a re-basing of earnings and free cash flow, as well as confirmation of the pay-out ratio, entrenches Coles Group as a low-growth, defensive yield stock.

Greater capital discipline has led to a reassessment of the store roll-out, resulting in the broker's expenditure forecasts being cut by -10-15%. The broker maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $13.50 from $13.00.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.50, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates COL as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse found the market reaction to the company's strategy update positive although emphasises that Coles Group is embarking on the most challenging five years of its history.

The broker envisages Coles as a higher risk opportunity than Woolworths ((WOW)). A slower rate of growth in store space should benefit sales productivity, in the broker's view.

Yet the back end loading of structural cost reductions and a period of elevated capital expenditure create near-term risk for profits. Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $12.04 from $11.83.

Target price is $12.04 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: minus $1.73 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.50, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates COL as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank found the strategy update sensible, with expansion of private-label penetration, reduced promotional intensity and no big price investment flagged. The main news is the $1bn in cumulative cost reductions over the next four years.

The broker acknowledges maintaining or growing market share will not be easy. Hold rating and $12.50 target maintained.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: minus $1.27 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.50, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COL as Neutral (3) -

Coles' strategy day brought no more than a "tweak" to the company's plans than any wholesale change, the broker notes, and an announcement the dividend will be unchanged. The highlight was a $1bn cost-out program, albeit this is weighted to latter years and partly in order to offset cost increases.

As the broker expected, the update was not as bad as feared, but with limited shareholder return on offer as the company cycles last year's Little Shop bonanza, the broker retains Neutral and a $12.23 target.

Target price is $12.23 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: minus $1.54 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.50, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COL as Equal-weight (3) -

Guidance for fourth quarter like-for-like sales growth is in the upper half of the range of 1.5-2.2%, which is better than Morgan Stanley expected. The broker notes gross operating capital expenditure guidance for FY20 is $700-900m and less than $1bn in the peak years of supply chain modernisation in FY21/22.

While trading and expenditure guidance were better than expected, and the cost reduction program is likely to be taken positively by the market, the broker believes the stock is fully priced.

Equal-Weight retained. Industry view: Cautious. Target is raised to $13 from $12.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.50, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COL as Hold (3) -

Morgans believes the company's refreshed strategy makes sense in a highly competitive operating environment. A lot of changes are expected over the next few years. Management has outlined an expanded convenience and health offering, extensive use of data and AI to anticipate customer needs, and an acceleration in store refurbishment.

A continued rise in online sales will mean the company slows the rate of the expansion of its existing network, which will be tailored for local shoppers. Coles Group's brand sales are targeted to increase to 40% over the medium term.

While the initiatives are likely to deliver longer-term benefits, Morgans believes higher energy and labour costs will provide headwinds. Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $12.94 from $12.52.

Target price is $12.94 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.50, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COL as Lighten (4) -

Management has briefed investors that cost savings will build to $1bn by FY23 and gross capital expenditure will also peak in FY21-22 at $1bn. Ord Minnett believes the strategy is sound although growth is skewed to low-margin channels such as convenience and online.

The broker also points out Woolworths ((WOW)) is in a much stronger position than during the previous Coles Group turnaround strategy. Lighten rating maintained. Target rises to $11.50 from $11.25.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: minus $2.27 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.50, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Sell (5) -

UBS found two positive surprises from the company's strategy briefing. Fourth quarter like-for-like sales were ahead of expectations and $1bn of cumulative cost reductions by FY23 were announced.

The broker believes the new strategy of a more tailored customer approach, albeit clearly defined, will take time and is not without risk.

UBS would like to be more positive about Coles Group but envisages near-term earnings risk and execution challenges. Sell rating maintained. Target rises to $12.30 from $11.30.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: minus $1.47 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.50, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CQE as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Charter Hall Education Trust, a social infrastructure real estate investment trust with around $1.18bn in childcare centres across Australia and New Zealand. The portfolio has long weighted average lease expiry and strong tenant retention.

The stock may be trading on a higher multiple relative to small cap peers but Ord Minnett believes this is justified because of a superior growth trajectory. The broker commences coverage with a Hold rating and $3.65 target.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If CQE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi revises estimates higher to reflect development work, which is expected to increase to around $5bn by the end of FY20. While acknowledging the significant multiple expansion to date, the broker believes there is scope for more. Estimates for FY20/21 are lifted 2-4%.

The stock is expected to outperform amid positive earnings revisions, supportive secular trends and e-commerce as well as a strong balance sheet. Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $17.00 from $14.12.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $14.83 Difference: $2.17
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.78, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNK as Neutral (3) -

The investor briefing highlighted potential growth areas, including bank outsourcing in Ireland, a new market in Luxembourg and challenger banks in the Netherlands. Citi assesses some areas are promising but most will take time.

Nevertheless, superannuation changes in Australia and Brexit cloud the near term and are unlikely to be cleared up until at least FY21. The broker also assesses the widely-publicised Woodford case in the UK presents the risk of reputation damage. Neutral rating and $6 target maintained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.40 Difference: $0.6
If LNK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.06, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates LNK as Sell (5) -

Link Administration has reiterated guidance for operating earnings (EBITDA) of $355-360m and its medium-term synergy target of GBP15m for the EMEA operations.

Deutsche Bank believes the outlook for FY20 remains difficult, with client losses and account consolidation dragging on Australian revenue. Brexit uncertainty is also negatively affecting Europe. Sell rating and $5.30 target.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.40 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If LNK meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.06, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNK as Outperform (1) -

At its investor day Link Administration announced an extension to its AustralianSuper funds admin contract, being the company's largest. This will be viewed as positive, the broker suggests, as it removes an overhang of uncertainty with the REST contract still in negotiation.

No new financial information was provided. Outperform and $7.10 target retained.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $5.40 Difference: $1.7
If LNK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.06, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LNK as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes press commentary on the company's involvement in overseeing the Woodford equity income fund in the UK. The report suggested Link Administration had blocked investors from redeeming their money, despite these investors making heavy losses.

Link Administration has defended its role but Ord Minnett finds it unclear whether there are any implications from the allegations. Accumulate rating. Target is $7.16.

Target price is $7.16 Current Price is $5.40 Difference: $1.76
If LNK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.06, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Buy (1) -

Analysis of the UK FY18 accounts indicate the region is loss-making for the company, probably because of a lack of scale, Citi suggests.

Nevertheless, the broker considers there is a path to UK profitability and significant roll-out potential remains. Sales per UK store in FY18 were up 45% and are expected to grow further as brand awareness builds.

Citi maintains a Buy rating and $10.75 target.

Target price is $10.75 Current Price is $11.50 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.33, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAN as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

The share price has rallied over 30% in the last month and Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add. Second half operating earnings (EBITDA) are forecast to be less than the first half so, potentially, some weakness is likely to follow when the company reports in late August.

The broker suggests this will become a buying opportunity. Morgans rolls forward the model and raises the target to $4.99 from $4.55.

Target price is $4.99 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: minus $0.59 (current price is over target).
If NAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PNL as Outperform (1) -

Paringa Resources has sold its first coal in the quarter and operations are now ramping up towards a 1.8mtpa run-rate by year end.

Improved mining conditions have reduced costs but production and long term coal price assumptions have been lowered. This leads the broker to cut earnings forecasts and lower its target to 20c from 26c.

The operation is nevertheless de-risked, with 90% of 2019 and 60% of the following five years' production now contracted for sale. Outperform retained.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.1
If PNL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

The NSW government's FY20 budget for healthcare will target recruitment of 8300 frontline health staff over four years. In addition, $76m has been allocated to boost elective surgery.

While significant, it is not clear to UBS whether the investment will be sufficient to cater for any further decline in private health insurance participation and the presumed migration of patients back to the public system.

Neutral rating and $68.40 target maintained.

Target price is $68.40 Current Price is $72.46 Difference: minus $4.06 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $65.60, suggesting downside of -9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

The broker has marked its South32 valuation to market for lower alumina, manganese and thermal coal prices. Forecasts are further impacted by an updated reserve at Illawarra which represents a reduction.

This lack of earnings momentum means South32 will likely lag the big iron ore miners, hence the broker retains Neutral. Target falls to $3.30 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.07
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SXY as Outperform (1) -

As expected, Senex has sold its Roma North infrastructure to Jemena for $50m in cash, and will toll Roma North gas through the facility on a 21-year agreement with a 10-year extension option. This is an important step in relieving some of the balance sheet concerns for Senex, the broker suggests.

The focus is now on first gas from Project Atlas, which the broker believes the market is "over-risking" at the current share price. Outperform and 50c target retained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.19
If SXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 41.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

The broker notes lower interest rates provide a tailwind for Transurban's long-dated toll contracts, particularly newer assets such as WestConnex, which is yet to be completed. However the tailwind becomes a headwind on new projects that will be more expensive to execute.

Adjusting for a lower bond rate sees the target rise to $15.48 from $13.27.

Target price is $15.48 Current Price is $14.93 Difference: $0.55
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.96, suggesting downside of -13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates URW as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett found little change in the narrative regarding the future of retail, integration of Westfield and the future strategy in Europe at the company's briefing.

The broker notes the company expects to keep a similar pace of new project developments over the next five years and has flagged increased density and mixed-use of retail centres.

The majority of disposals so far have been office assets, although the remaining EUR2.9bn is expected to be 75-85% retail. Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and $12.60 target.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: $1.59
If URW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.63, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates VOC as Hold (3) -

AGL Energy ((AGL)) will not proceed with its proposal for Vocus Group. Despite another bid not materialising, Deutsche Bank's investment thesis supporting an early stage turnaround is unchanged. The 15% takeover premium has been removed.

The broker believes this has been a distraction for the company and it should now be able to focus on the task at hand. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.30 from $3.90.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If VOC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources