Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes AIC Mines reported a slightly weaker June quarter update, with all-in sustaining costs higher by 13% than the broker's forecast due to increased mining costs and a rise in capex, some $5m above expectations. Production was pre-released.

Management's FY26 production guidance was in line with the analyst's estimate, with costs higher by 10% due to ongoing increased spending and growth in capex notably above expectations --at over 39% above Ord Minnett's forecast-- with in excess of $180m to be invested over the next 18 months.

AIC Mines is aiming for over 20ktpa of copper production by FY28, compared to circa 13ktpa currently. The broker lowers earnings estimates by -26% for FY25 and -13% for FY26.

Speculative Buy rating maintained. Target slips to 45c from 48c.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.12
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.58, suggesting upside of 82.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIS as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold (1) -

Aeris Resources is upgraded to Speculative Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett, with a target set at 28c, up from 23c.

A recent site visit highlighted a new strategy by management to deliver value for shareholders via growth at Tritton, which is viewed by the analyst as a positive move.

Commentary suggests the proof will be in the operational realisation, with successful asset sales and a reduction in debt.

Management also provided FY26 guidance for copper equivalent production of 40-49kt, as well as higher capex of over -$49m, Ord Minnett forecasts.

The higher spend is likely to suppress cash flows in 1H26, with the delivery of the Murra open pit expected to contribute copper production in 2H26.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.08
If AIS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.30, suggesting upside of 44.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

Citi expects a positive update from ALS Ltd's AGM (Thursday, July 31) and Investor Day (Friday, August 1), with ongoing momentum anticipated post-FY25.

The analyst also expects management to outline specifics around the near-to-medium-term growth pathways, with a focus on Minerals and resilience through the cycle, and Environment for ongoing momentum into 1H26.

Updated testing volumes across both divisions are also expected, as well as updates on work that has commenced with the four hub laboratories.

The stock remains Buy rated, with a $19.45 target price.

Target price is $19.45 Current Price is $18.05 Difference: $1.4
If ALQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.85, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AX1 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating on Accent Group, viewing the stock's current valuation multiple as attractive despite a challenging retail environment. It's felt the latter is largely priced into the stock.

The company's June trading update and FY25 Group earnings (EBIT) guidance of $108–111m came in -18% below the consensus forecast, highlight the analysts, reflecting those persistent retail headwinds.

In response, Morgan Stanley has cut its FY25 earnings estimate by -25%, now forecasting earnings of $109m, in line with company guidance.

Growth optionality via the Sports Direct joint venture is seen as a strategic positive, offering longer-term upside potential.

Target $1.95. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.43
If AX1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

The new information in Bellevue Gold's June quarterly was cost of $2,253/oz which was better than Macquarie's forecast by 23% and 7% vs consensus. The beat resulted in a 8% improvement in cost for FY25.

Net cash of $52m was 7% higher than consensus, and the company continues to hold 152koz of forward hedging commitments. The broker notes media reports suggesting buying interest in the company has faded from Australian parties but some international interest remains.

Outperform. Target unchanged at $1.30, with the next key catalyst being FY26 guidance expected in early August.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.45
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 40.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Following on from Citi's first impressions, the broker lowers its earnings forecasts for Boss Energy by -33% and -13% for FY26/FY27 on higher unit costs. A rise in sustaining capex and long-term costs lowers the estimated NPV by -14% to $2.65.

Due to the sharp share price fall, the stock remains Buy rated, with a decline in the target price to $2.70 from $4.60.

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Citi highlights Boss Energy's 4Q25 production was better than expected at 349,188lbs of U3O8, 7% above the analyst's forecast and 4% above consensus.

Sales of 100klbs were notably lower than production and reflected management's strategy to not engage with the market, as the U3O8 price is viewed as "fundamentally" undervalued.

Production guidance for FY26 at 1.6Mlbs was in line with Citi's forecast, but cash cost guidance of $41–$51/lb and all-in-sustaining costs of $64–$70/lb were significantly higher than the broker's forecasts of $34/lb and $48/lb, respectively.

The rise in cash costs resulted from an unexpected decline in average tenor and optimised lixiviant chemistry (lixiviant is injected into the ground to dissolve uranium from the ore body).

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.79
If BOE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 56.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Neutral (3) -

The main disappointment in Boss Energy's June quarterly, according to Macquarie, was the announcement about potential challenges in reaching the nameplate capacity for Honeymoon project indicated in the enhanced feasibility study (EFS) in 2021.

The company will commence an independent review on how the challenges will affect the EFS assumptions. Macquarie notes the market is wondering if the 1.6Mlb guidance provided for FY26 is the highest capacity the mine can reach and how the mine life would be affected.

In 4Q25 production was solid and the FY25 guidance was met. FY26 cost guidance was well above expectations, including for capex.

The broker made significant downgrades to FY25-27 EPS forecasts on lower Honeymoon production and cash margin forecasts.

Neutral. Target cut to $2.25 from $4.45.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.34
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 56.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Underweight (5) -

Following further analysis of Boss Energy's 4Q25 update and guidance, Morgan Stanley highlights the key risks surround costs, capex and mine, plus an expert report where the date is unknown.

While 4Q met expectations, FY26 guidance disappointed significantly on production, costs and capex. The broker is cautious about the outlook for FY27 and beyond, noting increased well density at Honeymoon would lower mine life and incur higher costs and capex.

The broker lifted capex and opex for Honeymoon's mine life and still expects further resources to be converted to reserves.

Underweight. Target cut to $1.65 from $3.25. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 56.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOE as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett explains Boss Energy lost its 'market darling' status on July 28 when the June quarter update cast a shadow of doubt over FY26 production and sustaining capex, resulting from poor mineralisation at the east end of Honeymoon's ore body.

Management is planning an expert study, with no date yet confirmed. The broker lifts annual sustaining capex by $30m and lowers nameplate capacity output by -0.3mlbs.

Ord Minnett believes investors will need more certainty post the expert study on estimated all-in sustaining costs, production, and mine life from FY27. The June quarter result is now largely irrelevant, states the broker.

Target price is slashed to $2.10 from $4.10 due to a lack of certainty on the outlook. Hold rating retained with a higher risk ascribed.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.19
If BOE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 56.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners observes Boss Energy's 4Q25 update was broadly in line with expectations, excluding sales of only 100klbs which were below forecast and largely underpinned a downgrade in FY25 earnings (EBITDA) by -16% from the analyst.

Production guidance for FY26 was as anticipated at 1.6mlbs, but cash cost guidance at US$27–US$29/lb is higher than Shaw and Partners' estimate of US$24/lb, and all-in sustaining costs of US$41–US$45/lb compare to the analyst's forecast of US$41/lb.

The company's comment “Boss has identified potential challenges that may arise in achieving nameplate capacity as previously outlined in the EFS" superseded the other updates, with management appointing an independent expert panel to review its operations.

Timeline on the review is uncertain. Shaw and Partners has downgraded net profit after tax forecasts by -18% for FY25, -7% for FY26 and -18% for FY27.

The stock remains Buy, high risk rated, with a $2.88 target price. The share price decline of -44% is viewed as overdone.

Target price is $2.88 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.97
If BOE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 56.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOE as Sell (5) -

With Boss Energy having partially pre-released June quarter production, the major issue in the results was the decline in the growth outlook for FY26, with production guidance at 1.6mlb versus UBS's forecast of 1.7mlbs.

The broker stresses that even more concerning was the company's statement around the "potential challenges that may arise in achieving nameplate capacity" for FY27.

The broker sees the update as more negative than positive against expectations, and it has sparked more questions than answers relating to the expansion at Honeymoon.

The company has a scheduled call, and UBS will be hosting them during the WA mining tour. Sell rating and $3.50 target price.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $1.59
If BOE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 56.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BUB as Speculative Hold (3) -

Bubs Australia's 4Q25 net revenue was broadly in line with Bell Potter's forecast and FY25 EBITDA, adjusted for the reversal of the Wills Holding legal case, was close to expectations.

Operating and net cash improved during the quarter, with net cash of $17.4m vs $12.5m at the end of 3Q. CEO Reg Weine has resigned and is replaced by Joe Coote, with the broker noting Coote has solid experience in US FMCG.

FY26 revenue forecast lifted by 3% and FY27 by 4%. 

Speculative Hold. Target rises to 17.5c from 14.5c on valuation roll forward and FY25 net cash position.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If BUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.18, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BUB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights a better-than-expected 4Q25 result for Bubs Australia.

The company has managed a successful turnaround under the tenure of CEO Reg Weine over the past 23 months, which, commentary suggests, makes the board's decision to appoint a new CEO, Mr Joe Coote, and CFO introduce uncertainty into Bubs at a time when the market was becoming more comfortable.

Revenue rose 16.3% to $27.8m for the quarter, with positive operating cash flow of $5.5m against a loss of -$3.6m a year earlier.

Buy. Target unchanged at 20c.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.02
If BUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.18, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BUB as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Bubs Australia delivered FY25 revenue of $102.5m, slightly ahead of Shaw and Partners' $101.8m forecast, with operating cash flow of $5.0m also outperforming the broker's -$3.3m forecast.

Guidance for FY25 earnings (EBITDA) of $5.5–6.0m, which includes a $3.6m settlement benefit, exceeded the analyst’s $2.5m forecast, with Q4 earnings of $4.3m marking a sharp year-on-year recovery.

Gross margin for FY25 came in at 47.2%, slightly below FY24 but above Shaw’s FY26 forecast, despite ongoing uncertainty around US tariffs.

A new CEO, Joe Coote, has been appointed effective immediately, which the broker sees as a strategic positive ahead of expected FDA approval by end-2025.

Commentary opines Coote brings extensive experience across the US dairy and infant nutrition sectors. Shaw retains a Buy, High Risk rating and 20c target.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.02
If BUB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.18, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CY5 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights strong June quarter drilling results at Cygnus Metals’ Golden Eye and Corner Bay prospects, with assays revealing high-grade parallel gold and copper zones.

Golden Eye will be the focus of a maiden resource estimate in the September quarter, which will coincide with a resource upgrade at Corner Bay, explain the analysts.

These updates are expected to reinforce Cygnus’ hub-and-spoke production strategy centred around the Chibougamau project in Quebec.

The broker notes Golden Eye has not been historically mined, sits close to the plant, and is supported by excellent local infrastructure.

Cygnus ended the quarter with $23.1m in cash.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 25c.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.15
If CY5 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CYL as Buy (1) -

Morgans updates forecasts for gold miners under research coverage following quarterly reporting and new guidance for FY26.

The broker assesses Catalyst Metals is well-positioned to deliver strong and consistent earnings through its exclusive focus on the Plutonic operation.

With no debt or hedging, the analyst sees clear upside via low-cost organic growth across the broader Plutonic Gold Belt.

Morgans notes strategic M&A has enhanced margins and supports a more resilient model through the cycle.

Buy. Target $6.75.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $2.01
If CYL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Citi resets the target price for Domain Holdings Australia to $4.43 from $3.25 to reflect the bid price from CoStar, as the acquirer received takeover approval from FIRB last week.

The next step, the Scheme of Meeting, is scheduled for August 4.

Neutral rating retained. No change in earnings estimates.

Target price is $4.43 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.03
If DHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting downside of -16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DVP as Buy (1) -

Develop Global's mining services revenue in 4Q25 of $51.0m was up 14% y/y and compared with Bell Potter's forecast of $51.5m. FY25 revenue came in at $212m, beating guidance of $200m.

The quarter saw production ramp-up at Woodlawn, keeping it on track to reach nameplate capacity in the December quarter, in line with the broker's forecast. The company is fast-tracking decline development at the Sulphur Springs project, now expected to start in 1Q26.

The broker factored in recent $180m equity raising in the forecast, increased mine life and capex for Sulphur Spring and lifted mine life and recoveries for Woodlawn. FY25 EPS up 10% but FY26 trimmed by -10% and FY27 by -12%.

Buy. Target rises to $5.30 from $5.00.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.47 Difference: $0.83
If DVP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FMG as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter describes Fortescue's 4Q25 quarterly report as materially better than expected from an operational standpoint. Production of 55.2Mt beat the broker's forecast of 49.0Mt and cost of US$16.29/wmt was lower than US$17.46/wmt.

FY25 shipment met the company's guidance and cost was lower. The company guided to lower cost for FY26 which the broker expects will drive earnings upgrades.

Staged ramp-up at Iron Bridge was progressing well and hydrogen projects at Airzona and Gladstone were cancelled which would increase cash flow.

EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 10% and by 28% for FY26 as the broker upgraded forecasts to meet the new shipment and cost guidance ranges.

Hold. Target rises to $17.40 from $15.87.

Target price is $17.40 Current Price is $18.14 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.90, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FPR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes FleetPartners Group's asset under management and fees rose 5% in 3Q25 despite a -17% fall in new business writings (NBW).

NBW on an underlying basis was down -7% but the outlook is positive, with the company noting the quarter was a successful period with a high number of tender wins. EBITDA for 3Q25 was up 5% y/y, implying broadly flat margins.

Arrears were high, mainly due to Accelerate platform cutover and expected to be resolved by the FY25 results. EPS forecast for FY25 cut by -2.5% and by -2.1% for FY26.

Outperform. Target trimmed to $3.68 from $3.77 on valuation roll-forward, updated share numbers and changes to earnings forecasts.

Target price is $3.68 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.82
If FPR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.66, suggesting upside of 29.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLO as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett downgrades Helloworld Travel to Hold from Buy due to the robust rally in the share price. Target slips to $1.76 from $1.93.

The company announced a trading update and FY25 guidance, with the earnings (EBITDA) range rising to $58m–$62m from $52m–$56m, which includes a $5.2m revaluation of Webjet Group ((WJL)) shares held.

Total travel volumes declined on a year earlier due to "marginally lower customer numbers, changes in destination mix to short-haul vs long-haul destinations, and lower airfares".

The broker estimates cash on hand at FY25-end at around $88m, with holdings in Corporate Travel Management ((CTD)) and Webjet supporting the balance sheet by around $11m and $54m, respectively.

Ord Minnett lowers its FY25 EPS forecast by -7% and by -2% for FY26.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.06
If HLO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.04, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HLO as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Helloworld has upgraded its FY25 underlying earnings (EBITDA) guidance to $58–62m from $52–56m, up 11% at the midpoint.

The upgrade reflects improved total transaction value (TTV) margins, continued cost discipline, and a $4.7m revaluation gain on its Webjet Group ((WJL)) shareholding, explains Shaw and Partners.

Excluding the revaluation, underlying earnings would be $53.3–57.3m, above both Shaw’s $54m estimate and the $52.6m consensus forecast.

Despite a slight year-on-year decline in passenger TTV, the analyst highlights strong margin improvement, growth in cruise sales, and a 110% uplift in Ready Rooms bookings.

Shaw highlights solid forward bookings, high agent retention, and strong subsidiary performance. No change to Helloworld's $2.60 target price and Buy (High Risk) rating.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.9
If HLO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.04, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley lowers its price target for HMC Capital to $4.46 from $5.41 and maintains an Equal-weight rating after removing all assumed unrealised gains from the Capital Partners 1 fund in its earnings forecasts. Industry View: In-Line.

Historically, HMC Capital included unrealised mark-to-market profits from this fund in its reported earnings, underpinned by assumed annual returns of circa 15%, explains the broker.

The analysts now view these assumptions as overly optimistic and difficult to forecast, particularly given a current estimated unrealised year-to-date loss of -$20m in FY26.

The lower price target also reflects reduced Base/Bull/Bear case valuations by the broker, fee adjustments across the funds platform, and uncertainty around the Energy Transition platform’s strategic outcome.

Target price is $4.46 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: $0.72
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.07, suggesting upside of 67.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HZR as Initiation of coverage with Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage on Hazer Group with a Buy, High Risk rating and a 70c target price, citing over 90% expected total shareholder return.

Hazer is developing a proprietary process to convert methane into low-emission hydrogen and solid graphite using iron ore as a catalyst, explains the analyst.

Shaw notes this method offers a cleaner alternative to traditional steam methane reforming, which is currently responsible for nearly 920mt of CO2 emissions globally.

The hydrogen market, valued at around US$200bn, is expected to grow 168% by 2050, with demand for ammonia, methanol, and steel production as key drivers, observes the broker.

The group has formed a global strategic alliance with NYSE-listed global science, technology, and engineering company KBR to commercialise its technology.

Management is targeting licensing opportunities in the ammonia and methanol markets, explains the broker.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.33
If HZR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IFT as Buy (1) -

UBS resumes coverage of Infratil with a Buy rating, with the stock having underperformed the NZX50 year to date by -5%, despite its inclusion in the ASX200 index and the CEO buying around NZ$10m worth of stock.

The analyst details that Contact Energy ((CEN)) has acquired Manawa Energy, of which Infratil owns 51%, meaning it is swapping an illiquid asset for a liquid asset at a premium, including around NZ$179m in cash and the potential for over NZ$30m in dividends.

UBS and an independent valuation peg Infratil's stake in Canberra Data Centres (CDC) at $7bn and $7.2bn, respectively, or at a -30% discount to NextDC ((NXT)), with the outlook for data centres remaining strong.

Target price lifts to NZ$13.75 from NZ$13.50 on resumption of coverage.

Current Price is $10.72. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IMB as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans highlights a clean 4Q result for Intelligent Monitoring with cash from operations of $17m and free cash flow exceeding $11m, following the resolution of refinancing and Johnson Controls International transition costs.

Cash at bank rose to $24m, supported by a $35m acquisition facility, explains the broker.

Earnings (EBITDA) of $38.6m was slightly below guidance due to work deferred into FY26, observes the analyst. FY25 underlying operating cash flow reached $32.4m, with convergence expected between earnings and cash flow in FY26.

With defensive earnings, circa 20% EBITA margins, and a strong outlook de-risked by the 4Q cash performance, Morgans sees valuation upside. Key catalysts include contract wins, acquisitions, and upcoming financial results.

Speculative Buy with a target of 90c, up from 80c.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.25
If IMB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

Citi considers the ESA acquisition as strategically sound, although the price paid --at around an implied revenue multiple of 6.7 times-- is relatively full and reflects management's desire to expand the company's digital offering.

With debt at $90m on the balance sheet out of $350m in available funding, commentary suggests the company's balance sheet has significant capacity to add more non-organic growth options.

Citi views the ESA acquisition as permitting Imdex to avoid a period of digital infrastructure investment, while allowing it to retain its product and go-to-market focus.

No change to Neutral rating and $2.80 target price.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.95, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IMR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans maintains a Speculative Buy on Imricor Medical Systems with a price target of $2.22, revised down from $2.28.

The broker notes the 2Q25 cash flow report showed lower-than-expected receipts of US$0.08m, while costs were well contained, with US$50.3m cash in hand covering 11 quarters of spend at current burn rates.

Sales momentum in Europe is expected to improve, supported by an expanded sales team and a doubled pipeline of 27 accounts.

A 3-6 month delay in US regulatory approval for atrial flutter has led Morgans to halve site acquisition forecasts for FY25-27 and increase projected losses over the same period.

Despite short-term earnings downgrades, the broker remains positive on Imricor's long-term potential in the growing $8bn cardiac ablation market. 

Target price is $2.22 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $1
If IMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has taken a forward-looking approach to James Hardie Industries following the completion of Azek acquisition, highlighting the underlying economics of Azek's product is attractive. The broker sees big opportunity from Azek's supply chain.

The broker has now factored in 50% of the commercial synergies, largely related to cross-sell oriented opportunities. The company's debt position is a key risk but the broker expects rapid deleveraging, reaching 2.4x ND/EBITDA in FY27 and 1.6x in FY28 from 3.3x in FY26.

EPS forecasts cut by -16% for FY26 and by -12% for FY27 on dilutionary impact of the Azek deal.

Target rises to $46.80 from $39.80 on revisions to valuation multiples. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

Target price is $46.80 Current Price is $41.35 Difference: $5.45
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.97, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JLG as Neutral (3) -

Citi forecasts Johns Lyng will announce revenue of $1,167m and earnings (EBITDA) of $126m at its FY25 earnings report, with the private equity bid likely to supersede the commentary.

Improved weather in the US has allowed for the start of previously delayed works, with a turnaround expected in 2H25 for NSW.

The broker expects positive FY26 guidance and is cautiously optimistic, with tailwinds boosting the outlook.

Neutral rating retained. Target price moves to $4.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.1
If JLG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LM8 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights the strong economic potential of both gold and nickel assets at Lunnon Metals following its June quarter update and Scoping Studies on the Lady Herial and Baker/Foster deposits.

Lady Herial is forecast by the broker to generate $45m in free cash flow over a seven-month mine life for just -$1.2m in start-up capital, operating at an AISC of $2,100/oz.

The analysts note these estimates are based on a 29koz gold resource with 89% Measured confidence. Negotiations for toll treatment at Gold Fields’ nearby Lefroy plant are progressing, with alternate processing options also in proximity.

Metallurgical recoveries averaged 95%, and regulatory approvals are underway.

At Baker, a Scoping Study based on a $23k/t nickel price outlines a production target of 0.7–0.72mt at 3.0% nickel for 21–21.6kt nickel metal, supporting $70m pre-tax free cash flow, even at current cyclical lows, highlights Shaw.

Foster is more marginal with $4m pre-tax cash flow. The absence of a processing agreement currently limits the ability to declare Ore Reserves, explains the broker, but geological confidence in Measured and Indicated resources is high.

Lunnon closed the quarter with $15.4m in cash. 

Shaw maintains a Buy, High Risk rating and 60c target price.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.37
If LM8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 161% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MAU as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Magnetic Resources has secured Mining Lease M38/1315 over the Lady Julie North 4 deposit, which contains 92% of the Reserve and 90% of the Resource at the Lady Julie Gold project, highlights Shaw and Partners.

An access agreement has also been signed, clearing the path for the remaining two leases to be granted this quarter.

The recently released definitive feasibility study (DFS) outlines a maiden 1.0moz Reserve at 1.72g/t with strong economics, suggest the analysts.

With permitting, Native Title, and feasibility now complete, the company is progressing toward financing and development, highlights the broker.

Near-term catalysts, as identified by the broker, include remaining lease grants, a final investment decision, and exploration results.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at $3.33.

Target price is $3.33 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $1.79
If MAU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 116% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MND as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes from its Research Innovation Lab that the weekly job postings tracker for NRW Holdings ((NWH)) and Monadelphous Group showed combined job postings declined in June by -14% on a year earlier and were down -27% on May.

For Monadelphous the June job postings are up 16% on a year pearlier but down -26% compared to May with recruitment levels -10% lower than the historical monthly average since January 2018.

The Neutral rating and $16.65 target are maintained for Monadelphous.

Target price is $16.65 Current Price is $19.18 Difference: minus $2.53 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.44, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MQG as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Macquarie Group’s 1Q26 group net profit contribution was down year-on-year, highlights Morgans, reflecting weaker-than-expected earnings.

Improved results in Banking and Financial Services and Macquarie Capital were offset by lower contributions from Asset Management (MAM) and Commodities & Global Markets, explains the analyst.

Management maintained FY26 guidance, though Morgans flags the need for a stronger second half to meet the $4.1bn profit consensus estimate, which implies 12% growth.

CFO Alex Harvey will step down at the end of December, a loss in the broker's opinion, given his market reputation and succession potential.

According to Morgans, key operational highlights include 1% growth in MAM assets under management (AUM), $23.5bn in private market dry powder, and 6% sequential growth in the $150bn home loan portfolio.

The analyst also highlights a weaker commodities trading performance, and strong advisory fee income, especially in North America.

Morgans lowers its price target marginally to $222.87 from $223.89. The rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate on valuation.

Target price is $222.87 Current Price is $216.23 Difference: $6.64
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $221.77, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NST as Buy (1) -

Morgans updates forecasts for gold miners under research coverage following quarterly reporting and new guidance for FY26.

While FY26 guidance disappointed for Northern Star Resources, the broker sees the revised outlook as a credible and realistic base.

The company remains the premier Australian-focused gold producer, in the analyst's view, offering an attractive capital growth profile supported by a planned production increase of over 2moz by FY29.

The broker's investment case is underpinned by record gold prices, a robust capital return policy through dividends and buybacks, and extended mine life from the strategic acquisition of De Grey Mining’s Hemi project.

Buy. Target $21.00.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $15.92 Difference: $5.08
If NST meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.99, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWH as Buy (1) -

Citi notes from its Research Innovation Lab that the weekly job postings tracker for NRW Holdings and Monadelphous Group ((MND)) showed combined job postings declined in June by -14% on a year earlier and were down -27% on May.

This brings the combined job ads for both contractors down -19% below the historical monthly average, with the trend unlikely to reverse given the slowdown in award momentum and the subdued labour attribution rate, the broker explains for NRW.

Citi retains a Buy rating and $3.65 target for NRW Holdings.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.21 Difference: $0.44
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.40, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes Paladin Energy's 4Q25 production was a record quarter, with 0.99Mlb production, up 35.5% vs its estimate.

However, the FY26 guidance was a big disappointment, with production estimated to be -13.4% lower vs its forecast due to variability expected in ore feed and allowance for downtime. Unit cost guidance was 14.6% above the broker's estimate.

Additionally, achieved pricing in 4Q surprised to the downside with US$55.6/lb vs US$69/lb expected.

The result is for sharp downgrades to FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts due to lower production and higher cost guidance.

Equal-weight. Target cut to $7.30 from $7.45. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.91 Difference: $0.39
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.96, suggesting upside of 38.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PEN as Hold (3) -

Shaw and Partners notes Peninsula Energy has reset its U3O8 contract book with the termination of five of its six uranium contracts, accompanied by compensation of US$44.6m to its customers.

One contract has been retained for delivery of 100klbs over six years from 2028 to 2033.

Management is also reviewing production guidance, with expectations by the analyst that downgrades will be forthcoming, as highlighted in a press release in early June stating that production for 2026 and 2027 would be "materially lower".

Shaw and Partners believes this is a good result for Peninsula Energy and is evidence that it is a seller’s market for U3O8, particularly in the US. The broker has no concerns over the technical viability of the Lance project.

Hold, high risk, with an unchanged $1 target price. No change to the analyst's EPS estimates.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.38
If PEN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PIQ as Hold (3) -

Morgans suggests Proteomics International Laboratories has made solid operational progress in the June quarter, with advances across its Promarker diagnostic pipeline and a $12m placement strengthening its balance sheet.

Quarterly operating cash burn was -$3.2m, with circa $13m in available funding, but commercial revenue remains negligible, caution the analysts.

PromarkerD’s US launch is underway though Morgans expects a slow sales ramp-up via direct-to-consumer channels. Other products like PromarkerEso and PromarkerEndo show promise, but commercial rollout timing remains uncertain.

Despite a promising pipeline, Morgans sees the strategy as capital intensive and forecasts further funding will likely be needed in FY26 before any meaningful revenue traction.

Given high execution and commercial risk, the broker prefers to wait for more evidence of distribution or sales before turning positive.

Morgans maintains a Hold rating with an unchanged price target of 43c.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.04
If PIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PRU as Neutral (3) -

Perseus Mining reported a strong June quarter update, according to Citi, with cash from operations rising on the March quarter by US$27m. FY25 cash and bullion came in at US$827m.

The broker notes FY26 guidance was pre-released, but the latest update showed costs higher than expected at US$1,460–US$1,620/oz and a production range of 400–440koz.

Management pointed to some delay in permits, which accounts for the "softer" outlook, explains the analyst.

Neutral. Target price rises to $3.70 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: $0.22
If PRU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Perseus Mining's 4Q25 gold production broadly met Macquarie's and consensus forecasts but cost was 7% higher than the broker's estimate but in line with consensus.

The company met the 2H25 production guidance but beat on the cost. For FY26, the production guidance was in line with the broker's forecast and cost was slightly higher, and growth capex was 14% above.

Cash position increased by US$60m q/q to US$753m but this fell short of the broker's estimate. EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 3% but FY26 cut by -6% on higher cost.

Outperform. Target cut to $4.10 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: $0.62
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PRU as Buy (1) -

Perseus Mining ended FY25 strongly, suggests UBS, producing 121koz in the June quarter, meeting the upper end of full-year guidance (496koz at US$1,417/oz AISC), and outperforming the broker's cost expectations.

The company returned US$55m to shareholders and increased its liquidity to US$1.25bn, providing flexibility to fund projects like Yaoure CMA underground and Nyanzaga, notes the broker. Management also has funds for M&A and to expand buybacks, suggest the analysts.

The broker makes modest downgrades to FY26 production and cost assumptions (-11% earnings revision), offset by improved clarity on the hedgebook, driving a notable uplift in FY27 forecasts.

FY26 guidance reflects a transition year in the analysts' view, with reduced production and higher AISC due to project investments. 

UBS retains a Buy rating and lowers its price target to $4.15 from 4.20. Buy maintained.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: $0.67
If PRU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Citi previews Rio Tinto's 1H2025 report, with revenue expected at US$25.9bn, down -3% on the previous year, and earnings (EBITDA) of US$11bn, down -9%, with a decline in net profit after tax forecast of 16%, and a dividend of USD164c.

The analyst sits below consensus by -2% for the earnings (EBITDA) estimate due to higher assumed unit costs.

Lower grades are expected to weigh on strong Pilbara volumes, with Oyu Tolgoi boosting copper earnings by 27% as it ramps, and bauxite underpinning earnings growth estimated at 30% for aluminium. However, tariffs are expected to be a headwind of -US$300m, offset by a rise in the US Midwest premium.

Citi anticipates the market will focus on details around Oyu Tolgoi and tariff impacts for aluminium, as well as any commentary on US copper tariffs and any change in strategy from the new CEO Simon Trott.

Neutral rated with a $113 target price.

Target price is $113.00 Current Price is $116.95 Difference: minus $3.95 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $113.33, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans updates forecasts for gold miners under research coverage following quarterly reporting and new guidance for FY26.

Regis Resources is a debt-free, unhedged producer delivering over 350kozpa into the spot market, highlights the broker, offering strong exposure to rising gold prices.

Morgans prefers producers with earnings leverage over growth-heavy names. It's felt Regis' consistent production base and overlooked organic growth potential at Duketon support enhanced upside to the gold price.

Target $5.10. Accumulate.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: $1
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Sandfire Resources expects to achieve underlying earnings (EBITDA) for FY25 of $528m, which is in line with the broker's expectations.

June quarter net debt came in at $123m, lower than the broker's forecast of $138m, with several one-offs included. Citi anticipates Sandfire will achieve net cash in 2H26.

Group production FY26 guidance is below expectations by -2%, with Motheo impacted by weather in FY25, and Citi assumes a 12% annual rise in unit C1 costs, which will be announced with the FY25 results.

The analyst lowers the FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by -12%, and the target price lifts 70c to $12.20. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $10.99 Difference: $1.21
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.24, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SMR as Buy (1) -

On first inspection, Citi notes wet weather impacted Stanmore Resources’ 4Q25 results, with saleable coal production below the broker's forecast by -7% and coal sales -3% below at 32.4Mt.

Washery yield fell to 65% from 77% in the prior quarter, with coking coal at 26% of sales, down from over 30% in FY24. The miner retained FY25 guidance, with better volumes in 2H25 expected to positively impact costs.

Commentary highlights net debt fell to US$99m compared to US$146m at the March quarter, post payment of Eagle Downs stamp duty of -US$24m and capex of -US$19m, and including a US$48m tax refund.

Buy rated. Target $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.81
If SMR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Stanmore Resources’ sales production of 3.2Mt in the June quarter was essentially in line with Ord Minnett's expectations, but ROM production of 4.9Mt was much better than anticipated.

Underlying free cash flow rose to US$181m, up by circa US$71m, despite weak coal markets, the analyst explains.

Buy rating reiterated with a higher target price of $2.60 from $2.40. Stanmore is Ord Minnett's preferred exposure to leverage on met coal, which accounts for around 97% of the miner's revenue.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.31
If SMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights that Woodside Energy has assumed ownership of ExxonMobil's Bass Strait assets, with JV interests unchanged. This should facilitate better control over development decisions and improve gas resource monetisation, according to the analyst.

Management is aiming for around -US$60m in cost-outs over the longer term from the removal of corporate overhead synergies, but transition and integration costs will rise in the near term, impacting FY26 earnings before the benefits become apparent.

Citi notes that four potential development wells have been identified for around 200PJ, but these are pre-final investment decision and are not included in the analyst's assumptions.

No change to Neutral rating and $25.50 target.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $26.19 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.42, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Whitehaven Coal reported a better-than-expected June quarter result, with ROM production of 10.6Mt exceeding Ord Minnett's forecast by 23% and consensus by 12%, underpinned by Blackwater at 4.1Mt and Maules at 3.6Mt, which was in line and more than offset Narrabri.

The broker explains that manageable saleable production of 7.8Mt and equity sales of 6Mt met expectations. Inventory advanced by 1.3Mt.

Net debt rose to $0.6bn in the period due to the timing of deferred acquisitions. Buy rating retained with a higher target of $8, up from $7.60.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $1.34
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.06, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

Whitehaven Coal achieved better-than-expected June quarter results, according to UBS, with FY25 production coming in at the upper end of guidance, and costs and capex below expectations.

The miner is due to report FY25 earnings on August 21, with the broker forecasting 2H earnings (EBITDA) of $400m, negative cash flow, and a 2H25 dividend per share of 3c based on a 93% payout ratio. FY26 guidance is also anticipated at the results.

UBS lowers its EPS forecasts by -31% for FY25 and -24% for FY26.

Neutral retained. Target rises to $7 from $6.30.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $0.34
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.06, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources