Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy (1) -

AIC Mines has extended mineralisation in step-out drilling at both Swagman and Matilda North. Results will be included in the March update with an additional program to be drilled in the June quarter.

Resource extension drilling is also occurring at Jericho and will be included in the update.

Shaw and Partners remains a copper bull and the stock is its preferred producer. Buy rating and $1.10 target retained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.71
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 182% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.78, suggesting upside of 95.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates A2M as Accumulate (2) -

First half earnings from a2 Milk Co were ahead of expectations amid market share gains in China. Full year guidance has been upgraded.

Ord Minnett highlights the strength in the English label infant milk formula product with revenue growth of 13% in the first half which compares with just 2% growth in the more expensive China offering.

The new premium English label brand, Genesis, is expected to be a good contributor to FY26. The broker retains an Accumulate rating and raises the target to $7.70 from $6.20.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.30 Difference: $0.4
If A2M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.30, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Buy (1) -

In an early assessment, Citi anticipates the Auckland International Airport share price will react negatively to today's 1H results after underlying profit missed the consensus forecast by -8%, primarily on higher depreciation, interest and tax.

FY25 guidance was tightened to NZ$290-320m from NZ$280-320m, implying an around 1.5% upgrade at the midpoint, but the broker and consensus are already forecasting the top end of the range. Prior capex guidance of -NZ$1.0-1.3bn was maintained.

For FY25, the international passenger numbers forecast is retained at 10.5m, but the domestic passenger forecast was cut by -2% to 8.4m.

Buy. Target NZ$9.80.

Current Price is $7.58. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

At Aristocrat Leisure's AGM, a new $750m buyback was announced following the completion of the previous $1.85bn buyback.

Citi notes the premium leased installed base has advanced, with the launch of Phoenix Link assisting market share increases.

Citi forecasts net adds of 6,000 units in gaming operations for FY25, but management pointed to a decline in 1H25 gaming fees per day, which was below consensus by -2%.

Also, Tribal Casino gross gaming revenue is softer than the analyst's indicators suggested.

Aristocrat Leisure has guided to improving fee-per-day growth over 2H25, and the social casino portfolio is advancing at mid-single digits post the NFL app release.

Citi believes the company is on track for revenue of US$41bn by 2029. Buy rated. Target $74, unchanged.

Target price is $74.00 Current Price is $78.51 Difference: minus $4.51 (current price is over target).
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $74.39, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Sell (5) -

On first take, ANZ Bank's 1Q25 update held few surprises for Citi, except the CET1 ratio of 11.5%, below expectations of 12%.

The analyst also highlighted gross impaired loans continued to grow, rising to $1.9bn from $1.6bn in the December quarter, with the growth predominantly in loans over $10m.

Arrears in the consumer portfolio "moderated," Citi states, as many of the loans are expected to be property-backed in the SME sector.

No change to Sell rating and $25.25 target.

Target price is $25.25 Current Price is $30.13 Difference: minus $4.88 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.13, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AZJ as Hold (3) -

Aurizon Holdings delivered first half earnings below expectations with Ord Minnett noting a steep fall in the bulk haulage division as grain tonnage was lower than anticipated.

Haulage and logistics is guiding to FY25 operating earnings at the low end of the prior guidance range of $1.66-77bn.

The broker does not expect all units will increase earnings in FY26 although bulk haulage should benefit from lower volatility in grain volumes and the resolution of some customer problems.

Target is reduced to $3.20 from $3.40 and a Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

In a report issued yesterday, UBS gave an early review on BHP Group's 1H result released on the same day. The broker noted earnings were in line with consensus and there is no material change to unit cost or production guidance.

While net debt is approaching the top end of BHP's target range due to M&A and the Samarco settlement, management highlighted leverage is lower than peers and it is comfortable exceeding the top end "temporarily", the broker reports.

FY25 production guidance is unchanged apart from WA iron ore, which was pulled back to the mid point of 282-294mt range due to impacts from tropical cyclone Zelia.

No change to $42 target or Neutral rating.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $40.98 Difference: $1.02
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.93, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLX as Buy (1) -

Beacon Lighting reported 1H25 net profit after tax and a dividend of 4.1c per share, which were in line with consensus, Citi notes on first inspection.

Trade continues to perform well, and gross margins rose. Beacon Lighting ended with net cash of $18m, higher than the broker's forecast.

Citi points to a continuation in trading momentum from 1H25 into 2H25 but notes consensus at 3.1% for 2H25 may be too high given 1H25 achieved 1.3%.

The broker expects some profit-taking may emerge in the shares due to the strong price performance and the slightly weaker trading update. Longer-term investors may use any pullback to add to their positions, Citi highlights.

Target price is $3.12 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If BLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BMT as Buy (1) -

Beamtree Holdings provided a first half EBITDA outcome that was better than Shaw and Partners forecast. FY25 annual recurring revenue has been pushed out  with the company reducing guidance for FY25 to growth of 10% versus 20% previously.

Shaw and Partners still expects a strong second half and assesses the outlook into FY26 is well supported, with plenty of catalysts. The Buy, High risk rating is reiterated and the target is steady at 70c.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.44
If BMT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 169% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Neutral (3) -

On first inspection, Brambles reported 1H25 results in line with expectations and showed a robust compositional result, Citi explains.

Americas grew 6% in 1H25 sales against 5% growth in 1Q25, driven by better volumes and steadier prices, while EMEA sales also advanced quarter-on-quarter due to what the broker suggests is around a 2% rise in volumes.

Management retained FY25 sales and underlying profit guidance, with cash flow expectations rising to US$850-950m.

Citi believes this is a positive result, similar to 2H24.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $19.62 Difference: minus $1.12 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.20, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett was disappointed with the life insurance and investment performance in Challenger's first half result, although underlying earnings largely matched expectations.

The COE margin narrowed nine basis points to 3.11%, the broker notes, even as the company maintained the increasing proportion of longer-duration annuity sales should boost margins.

Ord Minnett reduces EPS estimates for FY25 by -1% and FY26 by -3%. Target is lowered to $6.65 from $6.85. The company is expected to struggle to grow the life book and margins appear to have peaked, leading to a downgrade to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $1.15
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COS as Buy (1) -

Cosol's 1H reported earnings (EBITDA) of $7.7m missed Bell Potter's $8.4m forecast due to higher cost of sales from onboarding four new managed services contracts.

The broker notes weak cash conversion at 52%, impacted by the timing of major project invoicing.

Management provided no guidance but indicated a strong start to H2 and the company is budgeting for additional material gains in revenue and earnings. A 1c fully franked dividend was declared.

Bell Potter lowers the target to $1.15 from $1.20 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.22
If COS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COS as Buy (1) -

Cosol achieved guidance in its first half result and Ord Minnett notes organic growth of 10% was robust given the recent loss of the OkTedi contract.

The result met expectations yet the stock has traded lower, with the broker suspecting forecasts were elevated leading into the result. Positive operating momentum continues with 11 new logos.

Buy rating retained along with a $1.25 target.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.32
If COS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CTD as Buy (1) -

Corporate Travel Management reported better-than-expected 1H25 earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation (EBITDA) against consensus expectations by 4%, due to higher sales and better margins, Citi explains.

A&NZ performed well, exceeding estimates by 19%, while the US was 10% above expectations. Citi believes this is a positive as these segments have been troublesome for some time.

Management quantified the expected "drag" from European government contracts at -24%, which the broker states implies FY25 guidance of $197m versus $201m, offset by the rest of the world.

Citi views the indications for FY26 as slightly higher than expected. On balance, a "strong" result with good trends in A&NZ, the global rollout of Sleep space.

Citi lowers FY25 EPS by -2% and lifts FY26 by 6.3%.

Buy rating retained with the expectation the stock will outperform as earnings and valuation return to historical norms. Target rises to $18.85 from $13.90.

Target price is $18.85 Current Price is $16.54 Difference: $2.31
If CTD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.63, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CTD as Neutral (3) -

Corporate Travel Management delivered a better-than-expected 1H25 underlying EBITDA, exceeding guidance by 5%, Macquarie’s estimate by 6%, and consensus by 4%, with weakness in Europe offset by strength in A&NZ.

A&NZ saw margin expansion, with Australia up 675bps and NZ up 545bps.

Despite the strong 1H result, management lowered FY25 EBITDA guidance, with the rest of the world unchanged but Europe downgraded to $55m from $68m.

Macquarie believes European earnings have bottomed and should improve. The broker lifts EPS forecasts by 0.5% for FY25 and 1% for FY26.

Target price rises 31% to $17.48 on a valuation roll-forward. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $17.48 Current Price is $16.54 Difference: $0.94
If CTD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.63, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley sees Corporate Travel Management's solid 1H performance, with revenue growth and strong operating leverage in the US and A&NZ, as a potential inflection point.

Earnings (EBITDA) of $77.4m exceeded the broker's $74.9m forecast, supported by near 50% improvement in profitability for both North America and A&NZ.

Management reiterated FY25 guidance. Around $880m in new business wins to mid-February, against a $1.0bn FY25 budget, and a 97% client retention rate, helps position FY26 for further revenue growth, suggests the broker.

Morgan Stanley raises the target to $18.30 from $16.40 and maintains an Overweight rating with an Industry View of In-Line.

Target price is $18.30 Current Price is $16.54 Difference: $1.76
If CTD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.63, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CTD as Hold (3) -

Corporate Travel Management beat expectations with its interim result, having responded to prior setbacks by lowering costs and easing back on capital expenditure. Ord Minnett suggests this is a short-term "sugar hit" to near-term earnings.

The broker is unconvinced by the bull case that suggests this is deliberately orchestrated to improve efficiency.

The company may face pressure from a number of innovative tech-centric competitors while larger operators could focus on the company's key clients, Ord Minnett asserts. Hold rating retained. Target is raised to $14.48 from $12.20.

Target price is $14.48 Current Price is $16.54 Difference: minus $2.06 (current price is over target).
If CTD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.63, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CTD as Buy (1) -

First half results from Corporate Travel Management were largely ahead of forecasts, although the composition was different.

Shaw and Partners highlights short-term guidance for around 10% revenue growth with group EBITDA margins returning to around 30% by FY26.

A more material reduction in capital expenditure has also been signalled. The broker points out, adding in the ongoing share buyback, those that were short the stock will be receiving bad news.

Buy, High risk rating reiterated. Target rises to $18.00 from $15.90.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $16.54 Difference: $1.46
If CTD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.63, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CTD as Neutral (3) -

Corporate Travel Management's first half results were stronger than expected and while FY25 guidance has been slightly downgraded, UBS points out this was flagged at the AGM.

New FY26 guidance implies EBITDA growth of 22% and is largely in line with what the broker expected.

UBS recognises the share prices had a strong run and the valuation does not appear overly demanding but wants more assurance regarding the building blocks to future growth and retains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $17.60 from $13.55.

Target price is $17.60 Current Price is $16.54 Difference: $1.06
If CTD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.63, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CWP as Buy (1) -

Cedar Woods Properties remains a key pick for Bell Potter following its 1H results, with the $7.20 target and Buy rating maintained despite the need for a large 2H skew. The broker remains confident in the full-year outlook due to record 2H pre sales..

First-half EPS of 18.2c missed the broker’s estimate by -40%, though management slightly raised FY25 guidance, now expecting at least 10% NPAT growth, compared to Bell Potter’s 11.5% forecast.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $5.53 Difference: $1.67
If CWP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.97, suggesting upside of 26.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CWP as Buy (1) -

Cedar Woods Properties has reported record pre-sales of $642m in the first half which has enabled an upgrade to FY25 guidance to a minimum of 10% net profit growth.

Timing meant first half revenue was slightly softer than expected but Shaw and Partners believes pre-sales are better indication of the performance over the rest of the year and into FY26.

The broker suspects the company will become quite active in FY26 in purchasing property. The Buy, High Risk rating and $7.00 target are maintained.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.53 Difference: $1.47
If CWP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.97, suggesting upside of 26.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CWY as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter lowers its target for Cleanaway Waste Management to $3.00 from $3.30 and downgrades to Hold from Buy.

While 1H earnings (EBIT) only missed the broker and consensus forecasts by -2% and -3%, respectively, and management expects to achieve the midpoint of FY25 earnings guidance, the analyst has concerns further out.

For the FY26 EBIT target to be exceeded, the broker believes commodity prices will need to remain supportive.

Execution risks are also noted around management's planned 2H uplift for the Liquid Waste & Health Services (LW&H) and Industrial & Waste Services (IWS) divisions and landfill volume recovery.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.31
If CWY meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWY as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Cleanaway Waste Management’s 1H25 results were in line with expectations, with the company trending toward the midpoint of its FY25 EBIT guidance of $395m-$425m.

Strong operational performance drove good margin expansion, supported by improved fleet and branch management. Macquarie remains positive on the FY26 outlook.

The St Mary’s fire damage is expected to cost -$20m-$40m net of insurance and will be booked below the line, the broker explains.

Macquarie lifts earnings forecasts by 0.6% for FY25 and 2.1% for FY26. Target price rises to $3.40 from $3.30. Outperform rating unchanged.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.71
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Overweight (1) -

During commentary at 1H results, management at Cleanaway Waste Management remained "confident" in its ambition for FY26 EBIT of more than $450m, highlights Morgan Stanley.

First half earnings (EBITDA) of $383m missed the broker and consensus forecasts by -4% and -3%, respectively.

An interim fully franked dividend of 2.8 cents was declared.

Management reaffirmed FY25 EBIT guidance of $395-425m and left D&A guidance unchanged at $380-400m, while slightly lowering net finance cost guidance.

Target $3.23. Overweight. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.23 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.54
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CWY as Buy (1) -

UBS welcomes the maintenance of FY25 guidance by Cleanaway Waste Management although first half results slightly missed expectations.

The broker is confident in maintaining a 15% EBIT growth forecast for FY25. For FY26 the outlook is less clear but there remain several levers for upside, UBS suggests.

Opportunities including decommissioning continue to progress, with management signalling a $500m per annum market revenue opportunity. Buy rating retained. Target edges down to $3.25 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.56
If CWY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Citi points to the announcement of George Saoud as the new CFO at Domino's Pizza Enterprises as a "strong"appointment.

Mr Saoud has experience across retail, and the broker expects investors will have confidence in his appointment.

Neutral rating and $37.34 target price.

Target price is $37.34 Current Price is $31.52 Difference: $5.82
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.69, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DTL as Overweight (1) -

Despite ongoing cycle headwinds for Data#3, Morgan Stanley assesses a strong 1H and sees see scope for ongoing strong Services momentum underpinned by strong pipelines.

This momentum, and an eventual turn in cyclical softness, implies to the broker earnings upside risk.

First half underlying pre-tax profit of $33m was towards the top end of the guidance range of $31-33m, while the 10.2% gross margin beat the  9.86% expected by consensus, driven by strong Services growth, explain the analysts.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target is increased to $8.90 from $7.60. Industry View: In Line. 

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $7.98 Difference: $0.92
If DTL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.17, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DTL as Neutral (3) -

Data#3 delivered a first half result that was ahead of expectations. UBS highlights 10% gross profit growth, despite falling infrastructure sales that were affected by the Queensland election and delays in customer decision-making.

The result provides more confidence in the growth trajectory following the impact of Microsoft's incentive structure changes. UBS expects 10% three-year EPS growth but retains a Neutral rating given the valuation. Target rises to $8.10 from $7.30.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.98 Difference: $0.12
If DTL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.17, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EBO as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi downgrades Ebos Group to Sell from Neutral due to full valuation at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24x FY26 earnings estimates.

The company reported 1H25 EPS below consensus expectations by -2% due to higher finance costs, while underlying EBITDA was in line with forecasts.

Management reconfirmed FY25 EBITDA guidance, which the broker views as "conservative."

Citi lowers EPS estimates by -2% to -4% from FY25-FY27.

Sell. Target price cut to $32 from $33.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $35.94 Difference: minus $3.94 (current price is over target).
If EBO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.85, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EBO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights a marginally more "negative" 1H25 EBITDA result for Ebos Group due to restructuring costs and other items.

Healthcare performed better than expected, as did net debt. The company states it is ahead of the $300m annual target for new pharmacy revenues, with 1H25 new customer revenue of $100m, annualising to $450m.

Cost out targets are on track with $25-$50mpa gross to be generated over FY25-FY26 with $15m in the bag for 1H25.

Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -2% for FY25 and -4% for FY26, with a new CEO starting in July.

Target price lifts to NZ$42 from NZ$40.50. No change to Outperform rating.

Current Price is $35.94. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $35.85, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EBO as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ebos Group produced a first half result that was in line with forecasts. Ord Minnett observes the business is executing well on its revenue and cost initiatives and now forecasts FY25 EBITDA of $592m and net profit of $269m.

The business is "quality", the broker adds and should emerge from the transition period in FY25 with a well-established and diversified business model. Target rises to $37.00 from $35.50. Rating pulls back to Accumulate from Buy after the recent re-rating.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $35.94 Difference: $1.06
If EBO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.85, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Citi retains a Neutral rating and $4.87 target price for Endeavour Group ahead of the 1H25 earnings report on February 28.

The analyst expects weak Retail performance due to industry data and lost sales from the Woolworths Group ((WOW)) strikes in Nov/Dec 2024.

Trends in eating out during 2Q25 suggest Hotels will perform better than expected, while gaming should be "resilient" based on industry data.

Citi notes the valuation is not high at around 15x but highlights uncertainty around industry regulation on gaming and trends in alcohol consumption.

Target price is $4.87 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: $0.5
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EHL as Outperform (1) -

Emeco Holdings delivered a robust 1H25 result, with EBITDA in line with Macquarie’s estimates and 2% above consensus.

The analyst highlights half-on-half improvement in most financial metrics, with rising earnings margins as management focuses on efficiency and returns on capital employed.

Cash conversion was 94%, and free cash flow increased 22% year-on-year, supported by a decline in investing cash flow.

Macquarie lowers FY25 EPS by -3% and FY26 by -1% due to weather risk in Qld and WA.

Target rises to $1.18 from $1.03, Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.18 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.28
If EHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EOS as Buy (1) -

Electro Optic Solutions will report its 2024 results on February 25 and no surprises are anticipated. Post the sale of EM Solutions and with Land 400 yet to close, Ord Minnett revises forward revenue forecasts.

The revenue deferral leads to a decline in the target to $1.90 from $2.00 while a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.67
If EOS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FBU as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie notes Fletcher Building's 1H25 EBIT met guidance but showed weaker earnings quality, with the typically stable NZ business underperforming while the more volatile segments performed well.

Construction, corporate, and Australia exceeded expectations, while NZ distribution/placements missed by -80%, residential by -61%, and concrete by -13%.

Despite cost-out guidance, NZ pricing pressures will challenge the FY25 outlook. The broker sees risks from competitors in NZ cement and plasterboard, where it believes the company is "over-earning."

Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -8% for FY25 and -5% for FY26. Target price declines to NZ$1.95 from NZ$2.15. Underperform rating unchanged.

Current Price is $3.04. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FBU as Equal-weight (3) -

Fletcher Building's 1H group earnings (EBIT) missed Morgan Stanley and consensus forecasts by -13% and -6%, respectively, due to soft demand in all key markets.

The company estimates NZ market volumes were down -5-10% versus 2H24 and by -15% in Australia.

Around -NZ$90m of cost reductions in the 1H were more than offset by the impacts of softer volumes and cost inflation, explain the analysts.

Management expects a 40/60% 1H/2H earnings split.

Morgan Stanley's target rises to $3.04 from $2.48 (it's not made entirely clear why). Equal-weight. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $3.04 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0
If FBU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Fortescue reported a slight 1H25 earnings miss with FY25 guidance unchanged, Citi highlights at first glance.

Iron Bridge continued to ramp up in the period and is on track to achieve shipments of 5-9mt in FY25, the broker details, with cash opex ex shipping and royalties of around US$500m.

The target for operations achieving nameplate capacity is being reviewed.

Citi acknowledges the slightly below expected earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation (EBITDA) and dividend announcement but believes the market will appreciate the slowing in Energy spending and is likely to seek further capex and opex cuts.

The result is viewed as neutral to slightly negative for Fortescue shares.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $19.45 Difference: $1.55
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.48, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

In a first response, Macquarie notes Fortescue’s 1H25 result missed consensus, with earnings down -3%, profit down -11% and operating cash flow down -3%. The interim dividend of $0.50 was a -7% miss. 

There is no change to Fortescue’s FY25 production and unit cost guidance ranges for shipments and cash costs. The capex range was narrowed and skewed higher for metals while energy capex was lowered.

Underperform and $15.25 target retained.

Target price is $15.25 Current Price is $19.45 Difference: minus $4.2 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.48, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMD as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie downgrades Genesis Minerals to Neutral from Outperform with an unchanged target price of $3.30.

The broker notes 1H25 results were in line with expectations, with net profit guidance provided in the 2Q25 update.

Management retained FY25 guidance, with year-to-date production at 47% of the mid-point. The analyst highlights the Laverton restart commenced halfway through 2Q25.

Net cash of $130m was below Macquarie’s estimate due to higher-than-expected lease liabilities, likely related to equipment for Laverton.

Macquarie tweaks EPS estimates.

Earlier, in a first response, Macquarie noted Genesis Minerals reported 1H25 profit in line with expectations. Net cash was softer due to a higher lease/finance facility balance, more than the broker's expectation. 

FY25 production and cost guidance was reiterated. This, Macquarie believed, signals the miner is on track to achieve its own guidance.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $0.02
If GMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMD as Accumulate (2) -

Genesis Minerals delivered first half earnings that were in line with expectations. The company anticipates the organic growth pipeline should deliver higher returns in the current gold price environment as opposed to acquisitions.

Ord Minnett agrees there is merit in this strategy although still envisages scope for acquisitions given the company's relative premium to peers, particularly if there is synergistic appeal.

Upside risk is envisaged to FY25 guidance, yet a lofty valuation precludes the broker from a more constructive view. Accumulate retained. Target rises to $3.30 from $3.15.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $0.02
If GMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Following up on the $4bn new equity raising, Goodman Group now has $4.7bn of liquidity to support its working capital requirements and execute on the 5GW data centre development power bank, Citi explains.

The broker acknowledges some short-term weakness but believes Goodman can generate double-digit earnings growth, with the weighted average cost of capital attractive relative to expected internal rates of return.

Citi lowers EPS forecasts by -1.6% for FY26 and -1.7% for FY27 due to the dilutionary impact of the capital raising.

No change to Buy rating and $40 target price.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $35.98 Difference: $4.02
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.44, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie continues to view Goodman Group's valuation as essentially "full" while acknowledging the appeal of its low double-digit earnings growth profile.

Accounting for the $4bn equity raising, the analyst expects strong future earnings growth, supported by the data centre pipeline, including a 1.2GW potential expansion opportunity and a more flexible balance sheet post-raising.

Neutral rating retained, with the target price lowered to $36.31 from $36.47.

***

In an early assessment of today's 1H results by Goodman Group, Macquarie notes operating earnings per security (OEPS) of 63.8cps beat the consensus forecast for 55.4cps.

FY25 OEPS guidance was unchanged at 9% year-on-year, but would have been 10%, observes the broker, if not for a fully underwritten pro-rate placement to raise $4bn at $33.50.

Proceeds will be used for development working capital needs to commence new powered shell and fully fitted projects expected to be active by June 2026, notes the analyst. Data centres now comprise circa 46% of work in progress, up from 42% at 1Q FY25.

Target price is $36.31 Current Price is $35.98 Difference: $0.33
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.44, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMG as Accumulate (2) -

Goodman Group has raised $4.4bn in equity capital to fund its expansion into data centres.

Ord Minnett notes this is one of the largest capital raisings in Australian market history and has eclipsed the first half results, which were well ahead of expectations.

The development book stands at $13bn with data centres making up almost half of the work in progress, and the broker believes the pivot in strategy from warehouse and industrial property is a sound decision.

Ord Minnett reduces operating EPS forecasts for FY25 and FY26 by -2% and -5%, respectively. Accumulate retained. Target is reduced to $37.00 from $39.50.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $35.98 Difference: $1.02
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.44, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HMC as Buy (1) -

HMC Capital's 1H EPS (pre tax) of 51.9c beat Bell Potter and consensus forecasts by 29% and 33%, respectively, due to a rise in funds under management (FUM) and the DigiCo Infrastructure REIT ((DGT)) listing. A strong performance for the CP-1 fund also assisted.

Management reiterated DPS guidance of 12 cents, while current trading suggests annualised FY25 Operating EPS (post-tax) of 80c, up from 70c at the November AGM, observes the broker.

Buy retained. Target eases to $12.90 from $13.15.

Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $10.46 Difference: $2.44
If HMC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.92, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HSN as Buy (1) -

The turnaround in Powercloud was the highlight of Hansen Technologies' first half result, Ord Minnett asserts. This should drive a positive contribution to EBITDA in FY25.

First half underlying EBITDA was down -26.9% and in line with expectations  as well as the midpoint of guidance. The broker retains forecasts at the top end of full year guidance, which was unchanged.

The main take away from the results was a strong update on January trading with the first revenue from the recent VMO2 contract. Buy rating retained and target unchanged at $6.30.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $0.88
If HSN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.68, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HSN as Buy (1) -

Hansen Technologies delivered first half revenue that was at the top end of guidance. Powercloud has impressed Shaw and Partners, now generating cash earlier than expected.

The broker notes the second half skew is larger than usual but there is good visibility and the business appears on track for the top end of FY25 guidance, which has been reiterated. While cash flow was softer, this is been attributed to timing.

Shaw and Partners reiterates a Buy, High Risk rating. Target is $7.20.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $1.78
If HSN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.68, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HSN as Buy (1) -

Hansen Technologies posted first half results that were in line with guidance. UBS suggests the sell-off in the stock after the numbers was driven by fears around the core business, outside of licences and Powercloud.

The broker assesses the fears are unjustified and the lack of any guidance changes is more a reflection of management's conservatism, particularly around the exact timing for a large amount of committed upgrade works.

Buy rating reiterated. Target edges up to $6.55 from $6.50.

Target price is $6.55 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $1.13
If HSN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.68, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Citi raises the target price on Hub24 by 14% to $84.80 while retaining a Neutral rating due to valuation at around 40x FY26 adjusted EBITDA forecast.

The broker highlights 1H25 operating leverage strength, driven by robust top-line growth and good cost management.

Citi lifts net profit after tax forecasts by 4% for FY25 and 7% for FY26 and sees upside potential for margins, as the company's like-for-like EBITDA margin sits below Netwealth Group’s ((NWL)) by -16pp.

Target price is $84.80 Current Price is $85.28 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $85.18, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

In a first response, Macquarie notes IGO Ltd's 1H25 underlying earnings (loss) of -$180m missed consensus by -47%, but was 8% higher than the broker. Underlying profit (loss) of -$85m was 37% better than consensus.

The reported loss of -$782m was heavily weighed down by impairments of Kwinana (-$525m) and exploration (-$115m) assets.  As expected, IGO did not declare an interim dividend, with no TLEA dividend a key driver.

Production and costs are tracking towards the upper/lower end of guidance albeit a weaker 2H25 is flagged due to the mining of lower grades. Capex expected at the lower end of guidance.

Outperform and $5.80 target.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.64 Difference: $1.16
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Downgrade to Neutral High Risk from Buy HighRisk (3) -

In a second look at yesterday's 4Q update by Iluka Resources, Citi lowers its target to $5.60 from $6.10 and downgrades to Neutral High Risk from Buy High Risk.

The FNArena summary of yesterday's research by Citi follows.

Citi observes a disappointing December quarter report from Iluka Resources, with mineral sands revenue falling -17% below the analyst's estimate and zircon, rutile, and synthetic rutile volumes down -12%.

Pricing was mixed, with average zircon sand premium and standard prices below Iluka's guidance, down -4.8% on the prior quarter. Citi notes zircon prices declined from 3Q, while rutile and synthetic rutile saw slight increases.

Management plans to remove 130 roles, which Citi estimates will deliver a -$20m cost reduction for 2025.

The company indicated proposed tariffs on Chinese imports to Europe and other regions in 1H25 may benefit Western pigment producers.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: $1.04
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.92, suggesting upside of 24.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Iluka Resources' 2024 results delivered "solid" earnings, with revenue ahead of consensus by 1% and EBITDA exceeding expectations by 5%, driven by stronger mineral sands and higher Deterra Royalties ((DRR)).

A full-year dividend of 8c per share was 5% above consensus, with the 2H24 dividend of 4c exceeding forecasts by 11%.

Macquarie highlights the capex increase for Balranald as disappointing, reflecting inflation impacts and the acceleration of deferred capital, as management explained.

The company built up 20kt of finished product to around 300kt, valued at $480m, which the analyst sees as positioning Iluka strongly for the next restocking cycle.

The broker lifts EPS forecasts by 3% for 2025 and 5% for 2026. Outperform rated. Target $6.80 unchanged.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: $2.24
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.92, suggesting upside of 24.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

First half revenue for Iluka Resources aligned with forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus while underlying mineral sands earnings were a 1% beat.

While free cash flow (FCF) was in line with the broker's forecast it was a miss against consensus.

The interim dividend of 8 cents beat the analysts and consensus forecast by 6%.

Target $4.75. Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: $0.19
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.92, suggesting upside of 24.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

Assessing Imdex's 1H25 result, Citi believes the company has started 2025 in a more subdued mode, as exploration and junior financing metrics suggest a risk of ongoing weakness for juniors in exploration.

The analyst notes consensus continues to price in a recovery in exploration in 4Q25, with further improvement in FY26, as reflected in consensus EBITDA estimates for FY25/FY26.

Citi sees risks to the downside but believes the shares are supported by inclusion in the ASX200 index and a resilient result last week.

If exploration activity remains subdued over the next six to eight months, the share price is likely to be tested, the broker explains.

Neutral rated. Target $2.85.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates JHX as Buy (1) -

James Hardie Industries' 3Q25 adjusted profit of US$153.6m was up by 4% against consensus and 5% ahead of Bell Potter's estimate.

North America Fibre Cement (NAFC) was the standout performer, particularly in volume growth, while margins were well managed despite ongoing capacity investments and unfavourable year-on-year input prices, explains the broker.

Management reiterated full year guidance.

Buy rated. Target price slips to $63 from $64. Bell Potter remains attracted to the multiyear market share opportunity ahead.

Target price is $63.00 Current Price is $51.94 Difference: $11.06
If JHX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.57, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

The 3Q result by James Hardie Industries suggests the company might be at an inflection point. Citi notes an around 2% earnings (EBIT) beat but suggests the result quality was mixed as key drivers appear to be lower Corporate costs and SG&A expenses.

Respective APAC and Europe earnings of $35m and $4m missed the consensus forecasts for $36m and $10m, observes the analyst, while North America performed broadly in line.

Profit guidance was unchanged, while capex guidance was lowered to the bottom of previous -$420-440m range.

Citi leaves FY25 EPS estimate unchanged and lowers FY26 by -4.2% to reflect the weaker outlook and changes in FX assumptions.

The broker sees limited new evidence of green shoots and notes volumes are still declining. Neutral. Target $56.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $51.94 Difference: $4.06
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.57, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes a 3Q25 beat for James Hardie Industries, driven by strong performance in the North American business.

North American margins were 90bps higher than expected, while A&NZ delivered solid volumes despite a weak market backdrop.

Europe remained challenged due to seasonal factors.

Management reiterated FY25 NPAT guidance of over US$635m, indicating to the broker no change in market outlook.

Macquarie tweaks EPS estimates up by 0.3% for FY25 and down by -3.3% for FY26.

Target price slips to $65 from $68.10. Outperform rating unchanged.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $51.94 Difference: $13.06
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.57, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Equal-weight (3) -

While James Hardie Industries' 3Q result and FY25 guidance were in line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts, the broker believes the key focus going forward will be the direction of the Repair and Renovation (R&R) market in FY26.

Aided by a lower corporate charge, 3Q earnings (EBIT) beat the consensus forecast by 2%. North America Fibre Cement (NAFC)  volumes were broadly in line with expectations while the NAFC EBIT margin of 29.1% was 56bps above consensus estimates.

The Equal-weight rating and $55 target are maintained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $51.94 Difference: $3.06
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.57, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHX as Buy (1) -

Following James Hardie Industries' 3Q result, UBS lowers its EMEA and APAC margin and volume assumptions and the broker's target eases to $60 from $61. Buy. 

The broker doesn't envisage any structural issues with the longer-term growth story. Given US end-markets are down -10-20% from the peak, the analyst finds it impressive management has held volumes to low-single-digit declines.

UBS anticipates the currently subdued US demand environment will persist through FY26.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $51.94 Difference: $8.06
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.57, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Light & Wonder will acquire the charitable gaming assets of Grover Gaming, Inc. and G2 Gaming, Inc. for -US$850m cash upfront and a four-year revenue based earn-out of up to -US$200m.

Grover is a best-in-class E-Pull tab supplier with a leading position in the fast-growing charitable gaming space, explains the analyst.

Management expects the transaction will be high-single digit accretive to EPSA in the first full year post acquisition, and also reaffirmed its US$1.4b 2025 AEBITDA target for its core business (excluding Grover).

The Buy rating is retained and the target rises to $192 from $180 after the broker forecasts a lower cost of debt following the recent refinancing of the revolver facility and after assuming a lower weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

Target price is $192.00 Current Price is $168.52 Difference: $23.48
If LNW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $185.17, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNW as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Light & Wonder announced the acquisition of US Grover Charitable Gaming for -US$850m in cash and up to -US$200m in earn-out payments based on revenue over the next four years, Citi details.

The broker notes Grover operates electronic pull tabs for charitable organisations in five states and will add this exposure to Light & Wonder’s portfolio, generating US$135m in revenue in 2024.

The acquisition is subject to regulatory approval, with completion expected in 2Q25. Light & Wonder will use cash and debt financing.

Citi raises EBIT forecasts by 7% in FY25 and 17% in FY26 due to the acquisition and slightly higher estimates for the existing business.

Citi upgrades the stock to Buy from Neutral, lifting the target price to $200 from $156.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $168.52 Difference: $31.48
If LNW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $185.17, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNW as Outperform (1) -

This week Light & Wonder announced an agreement to acquire the charitable gaming assets of Grover Gaming and G2 Gaming for -$850m in cash and a four-year revenue based earn-out of up to -$200m cash.

Macquarie adjusts its model to include Grover, assuming deal close on July 1, 2025, and forecasts 8% profit accretion in 2026.

The Grover Gaming acquisition is complementary with significant revenue synergies. Macquarie continues to see an ongoing re-rate towards a 10x enterprise value to earnings ratio on deliverables including guidance and execution.

Target rises to US$122 (A$191) from US$117, Outperform retained.

Target price is $191.00 Current Price is $168.52 Difference: $22.48
If LNW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $185.17, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes the road back to inflows at Magellan Financial will take longer-than-expected previously.

While the analysts forecast around -$4bn of outflows over the next 12 months after a -$2.1bn outflow in 1H25, the worst has likely passed for Global Fund outflows. The broker also sees green shoots potential from the strategic partnership with Vinva.

The target falls to $8.95 from $9.30. Underweight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $8.95 Current Price is $10.10 Difference: minus $1.15 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.10, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Neutral/High Risk (3) -

Citi highlights Mineral Resources lost -$3bn in market cap following a -21% share price decline post the 1H25 result.

The broker stresses investor feedback has been negative, with the company facing a credibility issue due to multiple factors, including the delay in sealing the haul road, additional FY25 capex, and changes to the mine life at Onslow.

There is also a discrepancy between Albemarle’s disclosures on Wodgina and Mineral Resources’ statements, along with uncertainty surrounding the leadership transition.

The market expects a new Chair to be announced in the June quarter, while an equity raising is being priced in. Citi forecasts at least US$500m in debt for FY27, with peak net debt in 2H26.

Target price falls to $30 from $35 with a Neutral/High Risk rating from Neutral.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $24.18 Difference: $5.82
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.51, suggesting upside of 52.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Mineral Resources' 1H earnings (EBITDA) per tonne for mining services were a significant upside surprise, in Morgan Stanley's view, but there were only small changes to FY25 guidance due to severe weather impacts at Onslow.

Onslow guidance falls to 8.8-9.3mt from 10.5-11.7mt (consensus 10mt). As a result Mining Services guidance was adjusted to 280-300t (consensus 294mt), explains the broker.

Underlying earnings of -$77m beat the broker and consensus forecasts by 52.3% and 21.2%, respectively.

A free cash outflow of -$1, 959m missed the consensus forecast by -5.3%, while net debt (including leases) proved in line.

At the later conference call, management suggested leverage had peaked and expressed confidence in the current balance sheet and ability to de-leverage without raising equity.

Repayment of the circa US$800m Onslow Loan from joint venture partners is expected over the next few years.

Target $50. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $24.18 Difference: $25.82
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 107% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.51, suggesting upside of 52.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Sell (5) -

Post National Australia Bank's trading update, Citi tweaks EPS forecasts by -0.3% for FY25 and 0.3% for FY26, with an increase in expected bad and doubtful debts to around 14bps of gross loans and advances and a lowered NIM to 1.67%.

Sell rating and $26.50 target retained.

***

While National Australia Bank's 1Q cash earnings only missed the consensus forecast by circa -1%, Citi explains non-performing exposures continued to increase in the December quarter.

In an early assessment of today's result, the analyst attributes this increase to further deterioration in business banking and higher arrears in the mortgage portfolio, noting the contrast to peers that experienced stable-to-improving trends in non-performing loans.

Revenue was slightly-better-than expected by the broker, though 3% revenue growth in Q1 was primarily driven by Markets & Treasury income.

Overall, Citi anticipates the market will be concerned by revenue growth and underlying asset quality deterioration. Target $26.50. Sell.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $36.30 Difference: minus $9.8 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.12, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

National Australia Bank's pre-provision result was -1% below Macquarie, albeit with stronger markets and treasury income offsetting softer margins.

Excluding markets income, the pre-provision result was -6% below Macquarie's forecast due to weaker margins and volumes.

NAB saw a "small decline" in margins in the first quarter, with headwinds from lending competition, funding costs, and deposit
mix.

The bank appears to lag peers, Macquarie notes, potentially due to a bigger impact from deposit switching and more wholesale funding pressures.

With the RBA's easing cycle commenced, the broker expects the margin outlook across the sector to deteriorate, but expects NAB to be less impacted than peers.

Target falls to $35 from $36, Neutral retained.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $36.30 Difference: minus $1.3 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.12, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Overweight (1) -

National Australia Bank's underlying trends were softer than expected and the margin missed Morgan Stanley's estimate. Pre-provision profit was a touch short and cash profit was -2% below.

Revenue was in line but ex Markets and Treasury was "broadly stable", missing the broker's estimate by -2%. Expenses increased slightly more than forecast but FY25 cost growth guidance is unchanged.

The increase in non-performing loans was modest and the impairment charge was roughly in line, but the loss rate is nevertheless above peers, the broker notes.

The CET1 ratio of 11.6% missed by -35bps. The lower CET1 ratio may temper investors' expectations about the size of future buybacks, Morgan Stanley warns.

Target falls to $37.40 from $38.90, Overweight retained, with NAB still number one in the broker's order of preference. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $37.40 Current Price is $36.30 Difference: $1.1
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.12, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett expects further share price weakness for National Australia Bank as the market marks down forecasts for the years ahead. The nation's second-largest lender posted a soft December quarter trading update.

The broker points out that, despite the share price slide, valuation remains elevated and is not justified by the earnings outlook. Lighten retained. Target is $33.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $36.30 Difference: minus $3.3 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.12, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Sell (5) -

National Australia Bank's Q1 appeared slightly soft relative to UBS' and consensus forecasts, but the analyst retains a $37.50 target.  The Sell rating is unchanged.

The broker highlights worse-than-expected credit quality, but also notes historical quarter-on-quarter volatility.

Regarding guidance, opex growth in FY25 is expected to be lower than FY24 growth of 4.5%. The broker suggests the balance of the $0.5bn buyback should be completed by May 1.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $36.30 Difference: $1.2
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.12, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NGI as Outperform (1) -

Navigator Global Investments' 1H25 adjusted earnings beat Macquarie's forecasts by 10%, as Lighthouse performance fees offset lower Navigator strategic distributions. 

Lighthouse performance fees were up 489% year on year, driven by North Rock and Mission Crest.

Management noted it has an “active pipeline of inorganic opportunities”, predominately in the two areas of private equity and private markets. The broker expects FY25 earnings will be higher than FY24.

Navigator expects performance fees to remain a consistent component of its earnings. Target rises to $2.29 from $2.02, Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.29 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.39
If NGI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

Navigator Global Investments posted a strong contribution from Lighthouse Partners in its first half result with performance fees of $31.7m. As a result, adjusted EBITDA was ahead of expectations.

Ord Minnett finds the business an attractive investment proposition, noting the company is targeting 1-2 new partner firm investments per year. Earnings forecasts are increased over FY25-27 and the target rises to $2.35 from $2.15. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.45
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights Netwealth Group reported stronger-than-expected 1H net profit growth, up 25% year-on-year at first glance, which was 15% above forecast and 12% in excess of the consensus estimate due to a lower effective tax rate and more robust revenue growth.

On first take, the broker points to a positive start to 3Q25, but net flows appear to have plateaued, the analyst questions, and this will be a focus for the earnings call.

Opex came in higher than expected, up 20%, with IT & Comms spend rising 40% year-on-year, while net adviser adds fell by -126 in 2H24.

Citi expects a positive share price reaction.

Target price is $30.70 Current Price is $31.81 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.86, suggesting downside of -9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley marks-to-market its Perpetual forecasts for 2Q25 funds under management (FUM) and flows. As a result, the broker's earnings forecasts lift by 10% across FY25-26.

Despite ongoing underwhelming flows, the broker's target rises to $22.50 from $20.60. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $24.00 Difference: minus $1.5 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.43, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RFG as Buy (1) -

Retail Food delivered first half EBITDA that was ahead of expectations.

Shaw and Partners observes the business is changing to growth from a "turnaround story", having reached an agreement with Restaurant Brands International to launch the Firehouse Subs brand in Australia.

It will also extend the roll-out of Beefys to 50-plus stores over three years, from the current 15. The broker takes a measured view on margins and reduces FY26-30 estimates for earnings materially.

With an eye on peer valuations, which have contracted, the target is reduced to $3 from $4. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $1
If RFG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Citi notes today's FY24 result by Rio Tinto was broadly in line with expectations.

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) of US$23.3bn missed consensus by -2%, while net debt missed by -11%. Capex marginally exceeded full-year guidance.

With iron ore prices declining by -8%, earnings for the division fell to 70% of the group total, down from 84% last year. The broker expects the percentage to decline further due to the consolidation of Arcadium and the ramp-up of copper production at Oyu Tolgoi.

Rio maintained its payout ratio at the top end of management’s 40-60% guidance range, leading to a US$4.02 dividend per share, a 4% beat against consensus. Management reiterated 2025 guidance for most operational metrics.

Citi retains a Neutral rating and a $134 target.

Target price is $134.00 Current Price is $121.95 Difference: $12.05
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.58, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

In a first response, Macquarie notes Rio Tinto reported in-line 2024 earnings. Free cash flow was a beat and the final dividend of US$2.55 was a 9% beat on a 71% second half payout ratio. 

Pilbara Iron Ore reported earnings slightly below consensus. Aluminium beat by 4% but copper was disappointing, missing by -10%. 2025 production guidance is unchanged, while maiden cost guidance is 7% above consensus.

Neutral and $120 target retained.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $121.95 Difference: minus $1.95 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $127.58, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Rio Tinto's final dividend was 5% ahead of consensus but in line with Morgan Stanley, implying a full-year payout of 60% -- at the top-end of the policy range. The implied second half dividend is 9% ahead of consensus.

Iron Ore unit cost guidance is 6-10% above consensus but in line with Morgan Stanley. Underlying earnings were in line with consensus. Net debt was higher despite a beat on free cash flow.

Equal-weight and $130.50 target retained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $130.50 Current Price is $121.95 Difference: $8.55
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.58, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RMC as Buy (1) -

Following Resimac Group's FY25 trading update, Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating and lowers its target to $1.10 from $1.30.

Management notes higher provisioning on asset finance loans and now expects first half profit of $15m, down from $17m in H2 FY24.

The broker adjusts forecasts for both bad debt and net interest, bringing the H1 FY24 profit forecast to $15m, when prior forecasts by the analyst and consensus were $23m and $19m, respectively.

Full interim results are due on February 25.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.17
If RMC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.03, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Post-earnings call, Citi notes the residential earnings skew to 2H25, with over 90% of guided 2H25 lots already in pre-sales, securing earnings from a volume perspective.

Management announced two partnerships in logistics.

Citi believes the outlook for residential is improving with the RBA rate cut expected to support a higher compound average growth rate in earnings over the next three years.

Retain Buy rating and $5.80 target price.

***

On first inspection, Citi views Stockland's 1H25 funds from operations as below consensus at 10.5c, compared to market expectations of 11.3c, due to softer residential margins.

Management retained FY25 guidance for funds from operations at 33-34c per share, implying a strong 2H25 earnings weighting, with residential margins expected to improve.

In 2Q25, residential sales advanced 6% year-on-year to 1,250, with 5,789 contracts on hand.

The NTA rose 0.5% to $4.14, up from $4.12 in June 2024, despite a rise in the cap rate to 6.1%.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.17 Difference: $0.63
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.59, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Underperform (5) -

Stockland's 1H25 funds from operations were in line with Macquarie but -7% below consensus. FY25 FFO guidance is reaffirmed and the dividend is expected to be 75% of FFO.

Stockland has elevated contracts on hand at 5,789 lots moving into 2H25, and expects the March Q to deliver strong settlements providing comfort the group will deliver on its re-iterated 6,200-6,700 lot target for FY25.

The company successfully launched two logistics partnerships in 1H25, seeded with balance-sheet assets at small premiums to book value. 

Stockland is executing on strategy, Macquarie notes, has an attractive earnings growth profile and the new partnerships are accretive. Neutral retained on valuation, target $5.39.

Target price is $5.39 Current Price is $5.17 Difference: $0.22
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.59, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Stockland has reported 1H25 funds from operations in line with Morgan Stanley but a touch below consensus. FY25 guidance has been maintained, with a distribution payout of 75% of post-tax FFO.

Residential sales were up 6% year on year. The biggest improvement was in Victoria, the broker notes, where cancellations have reduced.

Overall, there was some good progress on new partnerships and developments, Morgan Stanley suggests, but the second half has a larger skew than normal.

Overweight and $6.50 target retained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.17 Difference: $1.33
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.59, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SHL as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Sonic Healthcare reported 1H25 results that met expectations at first glance, with no change to FY25 guidance.

The broker points to no forex impact over the period, while US organic growth was viewed as soft.

Australia achieved organic growth of 9% against Medicare at around 11.6% in 2H24, with Germany at 7% and the UK at 8%.

More details are expected post the earnings call.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $28.84 Difference: minus $0.84 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.29, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SRV as Buy (1) -

Servcorp delivered first half results that were ahead of UBS estimates amid continued momentum in the Middle East.

The company has signalled it is moving at the top end of FY25 pre-tax profit guidance ($61-65m), although the broker suspects this is conservative.

Based on forecasts, the company would have delivered 13% pre-tax profit growth over FY19-25 in what are relatively challenging and volatile market conditions. UBS retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $6.30 from $5.50.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.60 Difference: $0.7
If SRV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SSR as Buy (1) -

Following SSR Mining's FY24 results, UBS only marginally raises its target to $18.25 from $18.10 and retains a Buy rating.

The broker anticipates the Americas portfolio is set for an improved 2025.

The December 2024 agreement to acquire the Cripple Creek & Victor Gold Mine in Colorado from Newmont Corp ((NEM)) makes SSR Mining the third largest gold miner in the US, highlights UBS.

Target price is $18.25 Current Price is $14.05 Difference: $4.2
If SSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Santos' 2024 results were a little disappointing for Macquarie given higher costs. The interim dividend of US10.3c continues the 40% underlying free cash flow payout.

Starts for growth projects Barossa (Sep Q) and Pikka (mid-2026) are on track at which point the capex ceiling applies, the broker notes, allowing for increased shareholder returns.

Santos remains Macquarie's top pick in the sector due to ongoing anticipation of major free cash flow inflection ahead, restructuring potential, and M&A appeal -- a distinct positive for investors in the broker's view.

Target falls to $8.95 from $9.10 on higher costs, Outperform retained.

Target price is $8.95 Current Price is $6.58 Difference: $2.37
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.95, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

Santos' 2024 earnings were down -9% year on year, slightly below consensus, mainly owing to lower production. The final dividend of US$10.3 (unfranked) represents 40% of pre-growth free cash flow, in line with Santos' policy.

Morgan Stanley expects a muted reaction to the results, with 2025 guidance unchanged and steady progress being made on growth projects.

Barossa is 91% complete, Pikka phase one is 76% complete, Bayu Undun carbon capture is 96% complete, and WA decommissioning has seen six of eleven wells plugged and abandoned.

Overweight and $7.77 target retained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $7.77 Current Price is $6.58 Difference: $1.19
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.95, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -

The Santos 2024 earnings missed expectations as lower realised prices and volumes held back revenue and one-off items weighed on costs.

Ord Minnett considers the market reaction overdone and unfounded, as the company has maintained its 2025 guidance. 2025 and 2026 estimates are trimmed by -6% and -3% and the target lowered to $8.20 from $8.40.

A Buy rating is maintained, as Ord Minnett believes the pivot to shareholder returns as a priority, rather than growth, should procure higher dividend yields versus peers.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $6.58 Difference: $1.62
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.95, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

On first inspection, Super Retail reported lower-than-expected earnings before interest and tax, down -5% against Citi's forecast and -3% below consensus.

Margins missed, with sales largely in line, and Macpac was highlighted as a notable "disappointment" by the broker, with NZ an overall miss on the result.

Higher wage and rent costs impacted Supercheap Auto's margins, with flat sales.

Rebel, Boating, Camping & Fishing, and Macpac also experienced inventory growth, which might be due to slower sales over the period.

Citi points to group sales growth of 7% for the first seven weeks of 2H25 and suggests a pickup for all brands from Oct-Dec. Gross margins are ahead of expectations.

Citi believes the miss on Auto is worrisome, but improving trends have emerged.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $16.19 Difference: $2.81
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.38, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SX2 as Buy (1) -

Southern Cross Gold has updated on further drill results from Rising Sun and Golden Dyke at Sunday Creek.

The results show "excellent" vertical continuity of high-grade mineralisation and Shaw and Partners believes this reinforces Sunday Creek as a globally significant discovery.

The broker maintains a Buy, High Risk rating with a target of $3.69.

Target price is $3.69 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $0.02
If SX2 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SXE as Buy (1) -

Southern Cross Electrical Engineering's 1H underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $27.1m exceeded Bell Potter's $23.9m forecast and consensus at $25m.

The gross profit margin was weaker-than-expected by the analysts due to -$3.0m in litigation costs from the WestConnex arbitration and an unfavourable project mix shift in the commercial sector to lower-margin work.

More positively, the broker highlights strong operating leverage, with overheads as a percentage of revenue declining to 6% from 8.1% in the prior corresponding period.

Bell Potter raises the target to $2.30 from $2.25 and maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.53
If SXE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SXE as Buy (1) -

Southern Cross Electrical Engineering impressed Shaw and Partners with its first half results, as it reiterated FY25 guidance for EBITDA of at least $53m and posted record earnings and net profit.

The broker suggests the company is being conservative with its guidance and increases EPS forecasts for FY25 and FY26 by 9.9% and 4.5%, respectively.

The Buy, High Risk rating is maintained. Target rises to $2.25 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.48
If SXE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

Transurban Group reported mixed 1H25 results on first glance, Citi notes, with revenue below consensus by -2%, but earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation (EBITDA) better than consensus on good cost management, the analyst explains.

Free cash flow ex capital releases was stronger than consensus by 7% and 9% above the broker's forecast.

Traffic over 2Q25 rebounded to growth of 3.6%, up from 1.1% in 1Q25, with Sydney rising 4.7%, the most robust growth since 4Q23. North America also rebounded strongly, up 7.7% in 2Q25 from 6.5% in 1Q25.

Pre-earnings call, Citi expects the stock to react positively.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $13.20 Difference: $0.6
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.43, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

In a first response, Macquarie notes Transurban Group's 1H25 earnings increase of 1.8% marks a slight beat to expectation.

The recovery in population growth, car registration, solid employment and airport traffic has driven Citylink traffic up 0.8%, Brisbane up 2.0% and Sydney up 3.1%. 

US roads continue to rebound with the economy, up 7.1%. FY25 distribution guidance is re-affirmed at $0.65ps.

There was nothing new on NSW toll reform, and the growth opportunity set appears the same. The new operating model has delivered some savings, Macquarie notes, with commentary suggesting cost growth will be kept in line with inflation.

Neutral and $12.82 target retained.

Target price is $12.82 Current Price is $13.20 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.43, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)