Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AIZ as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for NZ capacity and, following a significant de-rating in the share price, upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to NZ2.25 from NZ$2.35.

The broker believes the airline should experience an improvement in operating statistics over the peak period and this in turn could mean improved investor sentiment.

Moreover, the company has indicated it is targeting a sustainable dividend and the broker calculates that continuation of the NZ20c per share from FY16 gives the stock an 11.4% net dividend yield.

Current Price is $1.65. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMC as Outperform (1) -

Ahead of the AGM, where Macquarie expects a reiteration of FY17 earnings growth forecasts, FY17-19 earnings per share are revised down 1% to reflect FX changes and slightly lower rigid plastics earnings.

The broker retains its Outperform rating. Target slips to $17.00 from $17.20.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $15.62 Difference: $1.38
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.36, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -

Quarterly volumes were in line with expectations. Coal performance in NSW was strong and reflected volumes from Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)). Iron ore volumes were back down to contracted levels and consistent with the prior quarter.

Macquarie observes the company is benefitting from a recovery in coal prices and this is likely to, over time, mean incremental volumes get exported. Also, risks around customer re-pricing have diminished. Outperform retained. Target is $5.01.

Target price is $5.01 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $0.14
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CMW as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett considers it reasonable to expect Valad Europe assets under management (AUM) will decline to around EUR3bn as the business works its way through scheduled asset sales and develops new mandates.

The broker expects it could take another two to three years before Valad Europe earnings stabilise but AUM should be a good indicator. Sell rating retained. Target rises to 85c from 84c.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If CMW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.95, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CWN as Buy (1) -

Citi lowers earnings per share estimates for FY17-19, reducing VIP growth assumptions in the wake of the detainment of 18 Crown employees by Chinese authorities.

While acknowledging it is unclear as to the extent of Crown's activities in China, the broker notes it is currently illegal to market gambling activities in China or pursue payment from players in China.

The broker perceives the reaction in the stock price is overdone, given the issues probably relate mostly to Crown's direct VIP business. A Buy rating is retained. Target slips to $15.10 from $15.35.

Target price is $15.10 Current Price is $11.15 Difference: $3.95
If CWN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.81, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

Crown has confirmed that 18 of its employees have been detained by Chinese authorities. Credit Suisse has no evidence that Chinese law has been broken, only a statement that says those detained are suspected of gambling crimes.

Separately from this issue, the broker queries how players will respond to future invitations by Australian resorts and how junkets will promote Australia as a destination.

The issue appears to be specific to Crown as no other casino has had staff taken into custody. Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and reduces its target to $12.30 from $13.00 to reflect a 15% drop in FY18 VIP revenue as junkets potentially avoid Crown temporarily and as Crown may have to adjust its operations in China.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $11.15 Difference: $1.15
If CWN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.81, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates CWN as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Deutsche Bank upgrades to Buy from Hold as the stock is now trading at a 19% discount to its revised valuation. This follows the detention of 18 employees from Crown by Chinese authorities.

The broker calculates the market is now pricing in a 70% reduction in VIP turnover and a 100% reduction in Chinese VIP turnover for Crown, which is considered excessive.

Deutsche Bank notes a similar situation occurred in Korea in 2015 which resulted in a 17% decline in VIP turnover and a 31.5% decline in Chinese VIP turnover over the subsequent 12 months.

The broker suspects junket operators and players will be less inclined to travel to Australia while these investigations are ongoing and estimates Crown's VIP turnover will decline 20% in FY17 and Chinese VIP turnover by 30%.

Target price falls to $13.75 from $14.35.

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $11.15 Difference: $2.6
If CWN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.81, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Gold output was softer in the September quarter, Citi observes. The share price has pulled back over the past month on lower US dollar gold prices but remains fair value in the broker's view.

Edna May remains a stubbornly high cost mine and may have to move underground before its performance improves, the broker notes. Neutral rating retained. Target slips to $2.40 from $2.50.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.28
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates EVN as Outperform (1) -

September quarter production was in line with the broker's expectations. Ernest Henry is expected to drive a stronger second half.

FY17 production guidance has been re-stated while cost guidance of $900-960/oz reflects the addition of the low-cost Ernest Henry business.

An Outperform rating is retained and the target is unchanged at $2.40.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.28
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates EVN as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

The company's September quarter production was in line with Deutsche Bank's estimates but cost were higher because of lower grades at a number of assets.

The company is guiding to cost improvements in the December quarter as Ernest Henry will start contributing this month. The stock remains the broker's preferred gold exposure. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target is steady at $2.40.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.28
If EVN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Buy (1) -

September quarter production was in line with UBS estimates. Costs were slightly higher than expected, with both Edna May and Mungari disappointing for the broker.

UBS notes, while the company's net debt position is elevated relative to peers, strong free cash flow should allow it to de-leverage quickly. This could drive a potential re-rating over the next 12 months, the broker believes.

Buy rating is retained. Target is reduced to $2.77 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.77 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.65
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Ore commissioning at Nova has commenced four weeks ahead of schedule. Grade control drilling completed to date has returned a 5% positive grade reconciliation compared with the resource base and presents upside risk to Macquarie's base case estimates on the project.

Release of the Long Island study for Tropicana presents a material near-term catalyst, the broker believes. Target is $5.00. Outperform retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $1.1
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.85, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse downgrades FY17 and FY18 earnings forecasts on new fertiliser price assumptions. The broker also removes a previously assumed buy-back for FY17 because of lower earnings. An assumption of an 80m buy-back is retained for FY18.

Expanding strip ratios suggest a more upbeat tone for the Australian explosives market but, with Moranbah fully loaded, the benefit of the improvement is likely to go to Orica ((ORI)),  the broker suspects.

Credit Suisse believes it is too early to call a bottom to the cycle, although urea has probably found a floor and ammonia may find a floor in the next quarter or two. Neutral rating and $3.10 target retained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $0.19
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWS as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett updates its model for News Corp ahead of the September quarter earnings report. The broker cuts estimate for operating earnings to US$112m from US$139m, largely on lower contributions from news services, book publishing and cable network programming.

The broker takes a favourable view of the company's aggressive cost cutting and its growing penetration of the Australian pay TV market as well as positioning in the digital real estate market. A Hold rating is reiterated. Target is $14.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $17.90 Difference: minus $3.9 (current price is over target).
If NWS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.55, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORL as Neutral (3) -

Citi reviews forecasts for OrotonGroup. Given the currency hedge rate movement and continued losses in Asia the forecast for earnings per share in FY17 is lowered to 15.5c from 18.5c.

The broker expects the company will improve profit margins but believes this is largely factored into the price.Target drops to $2.40 from $2.50. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.17
If ORL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PTM as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett estimates a $700-750m outflow over the September quarter and increases outflow assumptions for FY17 to $2.2bn.

The company's 10% buy-back is expected to result in a 5% reduction in shares on issue, given cash and price constraints.

Following a 15% retracement in the stock since the broker downgraded to Lighten, and with the downside likely capped thanks to the buy-back, the rating is upgraded back to Hold. Target slips to $5.09 from $5.20.

Target price is $5.09 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $0.12
If PTM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.98, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGR as Outperform (1) -

Crown Resorts ((CWN)) has confirmed that 18 of its employees have been detained by Chinese authorities. While Crown employees are the only casino staff taken into custody Credit Suisse wonders how players will respond to future invitations by Australian resorts and how junkets will promote Australia as a destination.

The broker takes the view that Australia is likely to remain an attractive destination for VIP. About 80% of Star Entertainment's VIP business is via Chinese junkets.

Outperform rating and $6.50 target retained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: $0.98
If SGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.67, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SGR as Buy (1) -

Following the detention of 18 employees from Crown ((CWN)) by Chinese authorities Deutsche Bank estimates that Star Entertainment's VIP turnover will decline by 25% in FY17 and Chinese VIP turnover by 30%.

FY17 estimates are reduced by 7% to reflect the lower turnover. Buy rating retained. Target drops to $6.25 from $6.50.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: $0.73
If SGR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.67, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SXY as Buy (1) -

Citi observes Senex Energy has prudently hedged its second half production, which provides it with a minimum realised oil price of US$55/bbl.

Citi is forecasting second half oil prices of US$55.5/bbl and, hence, the hedging cost results in a slight earnings downgrade. The broker retains a Buy/High Risk rating and the target is reduced to 33c from 35c.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.075
If SXY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SXY as Hold (3) -

September quarter production was 6% below Deutsche Bank's forecasts. This was a result of natural field decline as no new oil wells entered production in the quarter.

Guidance was not re-stated but the broker reduces FY17 production forecasts to the lower end of prior guidance at 0.81mmboe.

Hold rating and 25c target retained.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If SXY meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SXY as Outperform (1) -

First quarter results revealed revenue and production below Macquarie's estimates. Hedging losses compounded the weaker production numbers.

The company has now started to increase capital expenditure, which the broker suspects could offset the negative impact of prior reductions in investment in Cooper Basin production. Also, de-risking of the western Surat gas project through further appraisal drilling and de-watering may have a positive impact on core valuation.

Outperform rating and 30c target retained.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.045
If SXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SXY as Equal-weight (3) -

First quarter results were in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations. The company's Cooper oil business continues to decline, reflecting the limited exploration investment over the past 12 months,  and this is putting pressure on cash flow, the broker observes.

Morgan Stanley also observes that western Surat development activities continue but ultimately further appraisal is required to understand the economics and extent of development over time.

The broker retains an Equal-weight rating and In-Line industry view. Target is lowered to 25c from 27c.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If SXY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SXY as Add (1) -

September quarter production was steady and Morgans observes the company has also updated on its hedge book, which has been expanded to cover all production through the second half of FY17.

The company has locked in a price minimum of US$55/bbl using swaps while preserving exposure to price action above US$60/bbl with call options.

In FY17 the company will drill six exploration wells in the Cooper Basin with joint venture partner Beach Energy ((BPT)) and start its pilot well program in the Surat Basin. Add rating and 31c target retained.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.055
If SXY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SYD as Buy (1) -

The investor briefing highlighted for Deutsche Bank the quality of the airport and its management team. The broker remains attracted to the long-term demographic advantages of Sydney Airport but cautions that the current growth rates could moderate.

The broker envisages lots more investment is available to underpin growth. Target of $8.10 and Buy retained.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.40 Difference: $1.7
If SYD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.37, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WFD as Overweight (1) -

The investor briefing in Los Angeles is expected to support an accelerating growth profile for free funds from operations from 2017 after a decade of false starts, in Morgan Stanley's view.

The broker believes investors will be surprised when reminded that US and UK development completions have averaged just US$189m per annum during 2012-15. Morgan Stanley estimates completions will be five times higher in 2016-21, providing confidence that growth is at hand.

Overweight rating and 11.20 target retained. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $9.25 Difference: $1.95
If WFD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.78, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Sell (5) -

September quarter production was weaker than Citi expected as Maules Creek production fell 17% quarter on quarter because of heavy rainfall.

Citi upgrades FY17 EBITDA estimates by 29% on the back of higher coal prices but downgrades FY18 by 2% because of higher Australian dollar forecasts.

Citi retains a Sell rating, driven by bearish coal price forecasts. Target is raised to $2.00 from $1.85.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: minus $0.97 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.46, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WHC as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Credit Suisse believes metallurgical coal prices have peaked and the high prices will trigger the re-start of shuttered capacity. Thermal coal also appears likely to have peaked as China seems set to loosen restrictions which caught the market unawares.

The broker notes the shares are up 300% in the last six months and have run through its target. FY17 earnings are expected to be the peak for this coal price cycle, with FY19 earnings per share forecast to be 60% lower.

The broker finds it harder to envisage much upside from here and downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target is lifted to $2.80 from $2.45.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.46, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates WHC as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank observes wet weather affected September quarter production but the company maintains full year guidance as well as expectations that Maules Creek will reach the 10.5mtpa run rate by the second half of FY17.

Given the positive price momentum and the leverage in earnings a Hold rating is retained. Target is $2.30.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.46, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Underperform (5) -

The September quarter production report was one of the weakest in terms of operations as Macquarie observes the lost production from heavy rainfall in the period was only offset by the fact there were large inventories.

The rise in coal prices to levels not seen for many years has enabled the company to generate strong margins but, with the broker's team continuing to be structurally bearish on coal for the long term, the current share price continues to factor in higher prices than the base case.

An Underperform rating is retained. Target is $1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: minus $1.47 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.46, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

September quarter production was in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations. The stock has had a strong run and the broker suspects some may make the case to reduce exposure.

Morgan Stanley emphasises the volume growth, product mix and price realisation benefits yet to come through as Maules Creek ramps up. The company is expected to rapidly accumulate cash which should support the equity.

Target is $3.10. Overweight rating and Attractive industry view retained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $0.13
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.46, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WHC as Hold (3) -

Morgans observes the rain-affected September quarter poses only a small risk to FY17 production guidance and surging coal prices have transformed the company's de-gearing profile, with reinstatement of dividends looking possible in FY18.

The stock appears to be running ahead of fundamentals and, while appreciating the coal price leverage, the broker believes this is too aggressive.

Hold rating retained. Target rises to $2.64 from $2.20.

Target price is $2.64 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.46, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Hold (3) -

Production numbers were soft in the September quarter, Ord Minnett observes, largely because of wet weather. The broker remains cautious regarding the risks around the share price if, or when, the coal price momentum stalls and reverses.

The broker believes spot pricing for coal is unsustainable on the basis that it is likely to induce significant supply should it continue. A Hold rating is retained. Target rises to $2.70 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.46, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Sell (5) -

Saleable coal production was flat in the September quarter and the company reported wet weather reduced output.

UBS incorporates the quarterly activity and reduces FY16 earnings estimates by 8% on slightly lower forecasts for sales and realised prices.

Assumptions beyond FY17 are unchanged. Sell rating retained. Target is $2.60.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.46, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates XRO as Outperform (1) -

A new analyst takes up coverage of the stock, observing good momentum and strong margins. While balancing these positives progress in North America suggests caution should prevail.

Following the underperformance of the last month the broker suggests the market is taking a softer view of prospects at a time when most news is likely to be favourable.  Outperform retained. Target edges down to NZ$20.92 from NZ$21.00.

Current Price is $16.31. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $18.00, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources