Australian Broker Call
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April 06, 2023
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
GOR - | Gold Road Resources | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
IAG - | Insurance Australia Group | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
STO - | Santos | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
VEA - | Viva Energy | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
WDS - | Woodside Energy | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
APE EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $13.81
Morgans rates APE as Add (1) -
While new vehicle deliveries (sales) in March fell by -3.9% on the previous corresponding period on slowing demand, Morgans suspects overall demand is still exceeding these deliveries. This view is based on continued order book strength for Auto retailers.
Deliveries have been impacted by a combination of ongoing variable OEM production and shipping/port delays relating to quarantine issues, explain the analysts.
Electric vehicles (EV's) comprised 7.4% of total sales in March, and from within the broker's coverage of the Auto & Parts sector, Eagers Automotive and Smartgroup Corp ((SIQ)) have direct leverage to this accelerating uptake trend.
Eager's exposure is via its BYD Automotive 50% joint venture with EVDirect.
The Add rating and $15.85 target are retained.
Target price is $15.85 Current Price is $13.81 Difference: $2.04
If APE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.61, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 117.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 114.5, implying annual growth of -5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 115.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.6, implying annual growth of -9.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.54
Bell Potter rates AX1 as Buy (1) -
Accent Group's December-half result and first eight weeks of June-half trading (released in late February) pleased Bell Potter.
The broker says the company is set to benefit from the NSW Back to School voucher, as should emerging trends in casual footwear sales, and appreciates the company's younger demographic.
The company remains the broker's sector pick.
Buy rating retained. Target price rises 17% to $2.80 from $2.40.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.26
If AX1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.10 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of 165.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.90 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.6, implying annual growth of -5.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.63
Bell Potter rates BGA as Buy (1) -
Bell Potter observes a fall in global farm-gate milk prices (down -10% to -25%), which is affecting cheese markets, the broker spying better export returns for products such as mozzarella and cream cheese.
The broker expects Bega Cheese should benefit from the price fall, despite tighter supply.
Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $4.10 from $3.80.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $0.47
If BGA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of 6.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of 83.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.50
Citi rates BPT as Buy (1) -
Citi assesses, in isolation, the regulatory changes and restrictions on the oil & gas industry can be absorbed by the industry while in aggregate they could result in greater execution risk for projects amid reduced cash flows and reduced investment in Australian projects.
To reflect the reality, the broker reduces the risk weighting, increases the PRRT calculation and forecasts a shortfall in gas on the east coast. Beach Energy is least exposed and downside is priced in so the broker maintains a Buy rating. Target is raised to $1.76 from $1.73.
Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.26
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 28.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.30 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of -19.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 32.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $19.70
Macquarie rates BSL as Neutral (3) -
Amid revised commodity prices Macquarie reassesses the outlook for BlueScope Steel. A period of positive momentum in earnings is likely, owing to the tightness of US steel markets. The broker revises FY23 and FY24 estimates up by 22% and 37%, respectively.
Nevertheless, the conditions are not expected to last given the likelihood of a US recession in the third quarrter of 2023. Target is raised to $20.40 from $18.00. Neutral maintained.
Target price is $20.40 Current Price is $19.70 Difference: $0.7
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.94, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 248.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 213.4, implying annual growth of -62.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 211.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.5, implying annual growth of -21.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.61
UBS rates BXB as Buy (1) -
UBS observes signs of destocking among US retailers, but notes UK and EU retailers and fast moving consumer goods companies globally are still struggling with inventory.
The broker says this matches Bramble's commentary (which it expects to be confirmed at the upcoming trading updated) and would translate to a 2% to 3% rise in group earnings (EBITDA) over FY23 to FY25.
The broker observes tight supply of high quality pooled pallets continues and while lumber prices are falling, UBS doesn't expect this to affect supply any time soon.
Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $15.50 from $15.
Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $13.61 Difference: $1.89
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.98, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 51.16 cents and EPS of 102.32 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 59.93 cents and EPS of 109.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.3, implying annual growth of 9.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.77
Macquarie rates CMM as Neutral (3) -
Capricorn Metals has updated on the third quarter and production is in line with Macquarie's expectations. Softer mill throughput was counteracted by stronger grades.
Cash build over the quarter was better than the broker expected. A maiden reserve and the study at Mount Gibson remain the next catalysts. Neutral maintained. Target is $4.90.
Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.77 Difference: $0.13
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.87
Macquarie rates CXO as Outperform (1) -
Core Lithium's first spodumene shipment from Finniss is imminent. Resumption of operations is a key positive and the ramp up of production presents the main near-term catalyst, Macquarie assesses.
At full production, Finniss should produce 180,000tpa of spodumene concentrate. The project currently has a 15-year mine life in the broker's base case.
Outperform and $1.10 target retained.
Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.23
If CXO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.92, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 145.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.10 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.2, implying annual growth of 1600.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.08
Macquarie rates DCN as Neutral (3) -
Mount Morgans has been placed on care and maintenance by Dacian Gold, as expected. The company is exploring the options for restarting the plant including exploration, a low-cost owner-operated model and treatment of third-party ore.
Macquarie notes the offer by Genesis Minerals ((GMD)) has recently closed with that company now controlling over 80% of shares. No commentary on the likelihood of another offer has been provided. Neutral rating and 8c target maintained.
Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.003
If DCN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates EQR as Add (1) -
After an increase in the resource base of 9.6Mmtu at EQ Resources' wholly-owned Mt Carbine tungsten mine, Morgans raises its target to 10c from 7.3c.
The company reported an increased in situ hard rock resource of 28.7Mt at 0.30% WO3 (tungsten oxide), containing 8.6mmtu of WO3, up from 6.5Mmtu.
The broker raises its projected mining rate from the open pit and anticipates 80% recovery to a 50% WO3 concentrate. The Add rating is maintained.
Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.036
If EQR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FCL FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC
Cloud services
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Overnight Price: $1.45
Ord Minnett rates FCL as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett considers the recent poor first half a "blip" and market concerns are unlikely to materialise. The broker believes Fineos Corp can limit cost growth and maintain up-selling and winning of new clients.
Its software helps insurers administer their business and this goes beyond cost savings in supporting revenue growth. The fundamentals, moreover, do not appear to be deteriorating and the broker retains a Buy rating with a $3.40 target.
Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $1.95
If FCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 134% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.42, suggesting upside of 60.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -12.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.81
Macquarie rates GOR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
The outlook for production for Gruyere as well as longer-term production estimates are in line with Macquarie's expectations.
The broker states key to the outlook is improvement in grade along with mill throughput as Gold Road Resources heads towards its 10mtpa target.
Given the recent strength in the share price, the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is unchanged at $1.80. The price of gold and FX pricing present the key risks to the outlook.
Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If GOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.90 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of 74.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.30 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.8, implying annual growth of -4.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.94
Ord Minnett rates IAG as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -
The share price of Insurance Australia Group has moved through Ord Minnett's trigger level and thus the rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target is steady at $5.50.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.94 Difference: $0.56
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.15, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 34.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 77.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 43.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of 43.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JLG JOHNS LYNG GROUP LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $6.58
Citi rates JLG as Buy (1) -
Citi observes expansion in the US is gathering pace and the ownership of the Steamatic Nashville franchise supports brand recognition and traction in Tennessee.
Successful expansion in Tennessee is likely to be a litmus test for the company's aspirations to grow its US contribution, the broker adds.
Johns Lyng has hired a business development manager in Nashville and the role is expected to focus on marketing the Reconstruction Experts brand.
Buy rating and $9.65 target maintained.
Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $6.58 Difference: $3.07
If JLG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.40 cents and EPS of 19.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.23
Macquarie rates JMS as Outperform (1) -
Jupiter Mines produced a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter amid higher sales volumes. Production of 851,000t was in line with Macquarie's expectations.
The catalysts for the short term include the planning outcomes of efficiency projects and the downstream EV option, likely over the remainder of 2023 and in 2024.
Manganese prices remain buoyant and the broker assesses there is around 50% upside to its base case forecasts. Outperform rating retained. Target is raised to $0.30 from $0.26.
Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.07
If JMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in February.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.10 cents and EPS of 3.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.10 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.49
Macquarie rates LLL as Outperform (1) -
Leo Lithium has confirmed routes for the Goulamina project, which is expected to deliver first production in late 2024.
The first port agreement has been secured at Abidjan in Cote d'Ivoire and the company is in discussions regarding a plan for storage and loading facilities.
Macquarie observes the update further de-risks the project. Goulamina has also realised procurement benefits from its JV partner, Gangfeng. The most material catalyst, the broker points out, will be completion of the stage 1 development.
Outperform rating and $1.50 target maintained.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $1.01
If LLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 206% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
M7T MACH7 TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED
Healthcare services
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Overnight Price: $0.56
Shaw and Partners rates M7T as Buy (1) -
Shaw and Partners spies value in Mach7 Technologies, claiming it has fallen through the cracks.
The broker expects the company can repeat its 20% revenue growth in the second half and considers the company to be at an inflection point.
Add that to the company's low churn rate, reduced cost base, strong balance sheet and cash positive position, and the broker considers the prospect compelling.
EPS forecasts rise sharply.
Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $1.30 from $1.20.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.735
If M7T meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 130% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $8.28
UBS rates MFG as Buy (1) -
Magellan Financial's March funds under management fell -4.8% to $43.2bn, outflows sharply outpacing UBS's forecast.
The broker sheets much of the miss to institutional outflows from Airlie following the retirement of John Sevior and spies positive investment composition, noting Cash and Investments now constitute 58% of the company's market capitalisation ($4.60 a share in value).
Meanwhile, the company's Global fund staged a strong month (up 5.1%). EPS forecasts rise 3% in FY23 and 4% in FY24 to reflect more robust equity markets.
Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $9.50 from $10, to reflect the outflows.
Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.28 Difference: $1.22
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.54, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 84.00 cents and EPS of 92.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.3, implying annual growth of -53.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.6, implying annual growth of -20.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $116.63
Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -
Citi anticipates a large lift in earnings ex Pilbara over the next three years. While the turnaround in the Pilbara will be ongoing, the broker does not believe it will contribute to growth in Rio Tinto's earnings, given its forecasts imply a declining iron ore price.
That said, in 2024/25 the broker believes the company's ex Pilbara earnings can more than offset lower iron ore earnings.
While short-term prices have been supported by steel restocking, the broker believes there is a real risk of mandated second half steel production cuts.
Furthermore, India's exports of iron ore are expected to reach around 40mtpa through 2024-26, driving a market surplus.
The Neutral rating and target price of $120.00 are retained.
Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $116.63 Difference: $3.37
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $112.36, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 612.48 cents and EPS of 1022.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1118.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 665.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 687.03 cents and EPS of 1142.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1157.6, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 786.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.16
Bell Potter rates RRL as Buy (1) -
Regis Resources has received conditional NSW approval for its McPhillamys Gold Project, including the 90km water pipeline to provide supplementary water from the Springvale Coal Mine near Lithgow, and Bell Potter expects a definitive feasibility study to be published late this year.
The broker says the approval strongly de-risks the project and once operational would enable Regis Resources to approximate Evolution Mining's production rate, and believes the company's entirely Australian-based portfolio would be attractive to the world's gold majors.
Meanwhile, the company posted a strong first half, and the broker expects a repeat performance in the second, as lower capital expenditure and operating costs flow through to cash flow.
Buy rating retained. Target price rises 5% to $2.88 from $2.75.
Target price is $2.88 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.72
If RRL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of 268.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 201.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $24.89
Morgans rates SEK as Add (1) -
A trading update by Seek at its recent investor day demonstrated to Morgans management's ability to manage its cost base in a time of slowing job ad volumes.
Because of this slowing, FY23 revenue guidance was lowered by circa -1%, while earnings and profit guidance was maintained.
The analyst's key takeaway from commentary at the investor day related to Seek's target for $2bn in revenue by FY28 (consensus prior to the update was around $1.7bn).
Management aims to achieve this target via yield growth, driven by dynamic pricing and the roll out of new 'Outcomes Based' products across its platform after the Unification program is complete, explains Morgans.
The broker makes minor changes to its forecasts and retains its $28.40 target. Add.
Target price is $28.40 Current Price is $24.89 Difference: $3.51
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.28, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 71.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.6, implying annual growth of 50.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 78.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.1, implying annual growth of 6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SIQ SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LIMITED
Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging
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Overnight Price: $6.87
Morgans rates SIQ as Add (1) -
While new vehicle deliveries (sales) in March fell by -3.9% on the previous corresponding period on slowing demand, Morgans suspects overall demand is still exceeding these deliveries. This view is based on continued order book strength for Auto retailers.
Deliveries have been slowed by a combination of variable OEM production and shipping/port delays relating to quarantine issues, explain the analysts.
Electric vehicles (EV's) comprised 7.4% of total sales in March, and from within the broker's coverage of the Auto & Parts sector, Eagers Automotive ((APE)) and Smartgroup Corp have direct leverage to this accelerating uptake trend.
Novated lease providers like Smartgroup Corp have the strongest near-term leverage to the EV uptake on the back of the Electric Car Discount policy, explains Morgans.
The Add rating and $6.70 target are unchanged.
Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $6.87 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If SIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.24, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 44.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of -2.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 46.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.0, implying annual growth of 1.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.71
Ord Minnett rates SPK as Hold (3) -
Spark New Zealand's outlook is stable, Ord Minnett assesses, with mobile market share improving and growth in fixed wireless somewhat offsetting a decline in fixed line broadband share and voice.
Financial aspirations from the telco's new 3-year strategy are largely consistent with the broker's forecasts.
The company's planned investments to generate a long-term 9-10% return on data centre expansion as well as high-tech solutions does not impact on the broker's expectations for dividends to grow to NZ28.5c by fiscal 2026.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.71 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If SPK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.30 cents and EPS of 11.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.60 cents and EPS of 5.47 cents. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates STO as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
Citi assesses, in isolation, the regulatory changes and restrictions on the oil & gas industry can be absorbed by the industry while in aggregate they could result in greater execution risk for projects amid reduced cash flows and reduced investment in Australian projects.
To reflect the reality, the broker reduces the risk weighting, increases the PRRT calculation and forecasts a shortfall in gas on the east coast.
From 2027-30 GLNG may have to spend -US$700m on buying gas from other LNG exporters, reducing the broker's valuation for Santos by -9c in isolation.
Santos appears efficiently priced and the broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $7.55 from $8.30.
Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $7.16 Difference: $0.39
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.30, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 83.32 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 65.78 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of -16.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie observes the Commonwealth Government's recent safeguard mechanism reforms pose new challenges for the Barossa project.
The Moomba CCS, FEED on Bayu-Undan CCS and a feasibility study on Reindeer (WA) CCS are now critical to Santos in managing carbon compliance costs.
Third-party storage of CO2 in the company's geological assets is an additional opportunity, the broker asserts. Nevertheless, uncertainties exist as to what constitutes a "new" gas project. Outperform rating and $9.90 target maintained.
Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $7.16 Difference: $2.74
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.30, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.10 cents and EPS of 81.86 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 31.14 cents and EPS of 61.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of -16.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.18
Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -
Viva Energy is acquiring fuel and convenience business OTR for -$1.15bn. This has been a successful convenience model and, in Macquarie's view, solves the uncertainty around Viva Energy's rebranding exercise for its existing Coles Express network.
The broker is pleased the balance sheet is being put to work in what it describes as a "highly synergistic deal" that unlocks the growth opportunities in convenience. Outperform retained. Target is $3.60 and the broker does not yet incorporate the acquisition in its numbers.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: $0.42
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.40 cents and EPS of 28.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.7, implying annual growth of -10.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.40 cents and EPS of 28.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of -4.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates VEA as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -
Ord Minnett finds "a lot to like" regarding Viva Energy's business. The broker is yet to incorporate the OTR takeover into modelling but the company has indicated its acquisition of the South Australian business could drive earnings accretion of 6-26%, which is a material lift.
Completion of the transaction is expected in the second half of 2023. The broker points out earnings accretion is not the same as value creation and at this stage does not expect a material change in fair value.
Observing that the shares rose more than 5% on the back of the announcement, the broker downgrades to Hold from Accumulate. Target is steady at $3.35.
Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: $0.17
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.70 cents and EPS of 27.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.7, implying annual growth of -10.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.10 cents and EPS of 27.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of -4.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $34.22
Citi rates WDS as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
Citi assesses, in isolation, the regulatory changes and restrictions on the oil & gas industry can be absorbed by the industry while in aggregate they could result in greater execution risk for projects amid reduced cash flows and reduced investment in Australian projects.
To reflect the reality, the broker reduces the risk weighting, increases the PRRT calculation and forecasts a shortfall in gas on the east coast.
The broker assesses Woodside Energy's share price is yet to reflect these factors and the rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral.
Moreover, there is downside potential to even its forecasts which the broker argues undermines the investment thesis for the company as a scarce source of inflation-hedged income. Target is reduced to $30.00 from $36.40.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $34.22 Difference: minus $4.22 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $36.77, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 261.80 cents and EPS of 229.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 205.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 253.91 cents and EPS of 248.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 264.6, implying annual growth of 1.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 206.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
AX1 | Accent Group | $2.42 | Bell Potter | 2.80 | 2.40 | 16.67% |
BGA | Bega Cheese | $3.75 | Bell Potter | 4.10 | 3.80 | 7.89% |
BPT | Beach Energy | $1.51 | Citi | 1.76 | 1.73 | 1.73% |
BSL | BlueScope Steel | $19.49 | Macquarie | 20.40 | 18.00 | 13.33% |
BXB | Brambles | $13.69 | UBS | 15.50 | 15.00 | 3.33% |
EQR | EQ Resources | $0.07 | Morgans | 0.10 | 0.07 | 51.52% |
FCL | Fineos Corp | $1.51 | Ord Minnett | 3.40 | 3.75 | -9.33% |
JMS | Jupiter Mines | $0.23 | Macquarie | 0.30 | 0.26 | 15.38% |
M7T | Mach7 Technologies | $0.60 | Shaw and Partners | 1.30 | 1.20 | 8.33% |
MFG | Magellan Financial | $7.97 | UBS | 9.50 | 10.00 | -5.00% |
RRL | Regis Resources | $2.21 | Bell Potter | 2.88 | 2.75 | 4.73% |
SPK | Spark New Zealand | $4.73 | Ord Minnett | 4.40 | 4.30 | 2.33% |
STO | Santos | $7.14 | Citi | 7.55 | 8.30 | -9.04% |
Macquarie | 9.90 | 10.00 | -1.00% | |||
WDS | Woodside Energy | $33.79 | Citi | 30.00 | 36.40 | -17.58% |
Summaries
APE | Eagers Automotive | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $13.81 |
AX1 | Accent Group | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $2.54 |
BGA | Bega Cheese | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $3.63 |
BPT | Beach Energy | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $1.50 |
BSL | BlueScope Steel | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $19.70 |
BXB | Brambles | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $13.61 |
CMM | Capricorn Metals | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.77 |
CXO | Core Lithium | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.87 |
DCN | Dacian Gold | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.08 |
EQR | EQ Resources | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.06 |
FCL | Fineos Corp | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.45 |
GOR | Gold Road Resources | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.81 |
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.94 |
JLG | Johns Lyng | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $6.58 |
JMS | Jupiter Mines | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.23 |
LLL | Leo Lithium | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.49 |
M7T | Mach7 Technologies | Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $0.56 |
MFG | Magellan Financial | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $8.28 |
RIO | Rio Tinto | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $116.63 |
RRL | Regis Resources | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $2.16 |
SEK | Seek | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $24.89 |
SIQ | Smartgroup Corp | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $6.87 |
SPK | Spark New Zealand | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.71 |
STO | Santos | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.16 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.16 | ||
VEA | Viva Energy | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.18 |
Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.18 | ||
WDS | Woodside Energy | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $34.22 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 18 |
3. Hold | 9 |
5. Sell | 1 |
Thursday 06 April 2023
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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