Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates AIS as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Morgans upgrades Aeris Resources to Buy from Accumulate with an unchanged $0.70 target following the proposed acquisition of Peel Mining’s ((PEX)) South Cobar Copper Project.

The broker argues the transaction materially strengthens Tritton’s long-term outlook, adding largely indicated, high-grade resources and supporting a credible 10-plus year mine life.

Morgans believes integrating Mallee Bull into the existing Tritton infrastructure offers capital-efficient growth, stronger mill utilisation and improved operating leverage from around FY29.

Forecasts and valuation are unchanged at this stage, pending Peel shareholder approval.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.17
If AIS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.73, suggesting upside of 42.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Aeris Resources will acquire Peel Mining ((PEX)) via an all-scrip scheme for $175m. Ord Minnett points out the price may appear high at first glance but can understand the strategic logic in the transaction, given the mill and mine life extension have benefits.

Depending on timing, higher future commodity prices have the potential to provide a much larger uplift in value than the incremental accretion witnessed today by investors and the broker retains a Speculative Buy rating and $0.85 target, pending deal certainty. The proposed transaction is not included in estimates at this stage.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.32
If AIS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.73, suggesting upside of 42.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Buy (1) -

Citi believes AMP’s share sell-off post FY25 results is excessive despite softer guidance. It's noted surplus capital reached $236m and group cash $884m after debt repayment.

The broker's negative EPS changes are minor as stronger China profit offsets margin pressure.

The analysts highlight management’s preference to retain capital for opportunities rather than pursue buybacks. Flat dividend guidance for two years and softer platform margins have unsettled investors, suggests the broker.

AI concerns and fee compression add uncertainty, yet regulated exposure offers some protection, Citi argues.

The target falls to $1.80 from $2.10. Buy retained.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.52
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.84, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMP as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie assesses the 2025 results from AMP serve as a reset for revenue margins in platforms and S&I, as well as dividends for 2026/27. The stock is now trading at a -25% discount to its three-year average 12-month forward PE and an -8% discount to NTA.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. The company has taken an unusual approach in guiding to dividends for two years in advance, targeting 2c per half through 2026 and 2027, lower than the broker's expectation of 3c.

Although recognising buybacks as a preferred method for returning additional capital to shareholders, AMP has not announced one as yet. Target is reduced to $1.80 from $1.90.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.52
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.84, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Overweight (1) -

Post AMP's 1H26 earnings report, Morgan Stanley expects some modest consensus EPS downgrades over the next year, with the company reporting underlying net profit after tax that met both consensus and the analyst's expectations.

Statutory net profit after tax missed by around -34% on higher below-the-line items related to remediation costs of legacy issues, and the platforms and Superannuation & Investments (S&I) revenue margins missed but were offset by a strong Partnerships result.

The broker points to FY26 guidance showing divisional margins are trending lower than forecasts, with platform margins of 40-41bps below the forecast of 42bps. Management's DPS targets of 4c for FY26/FY27 is also a miss on consensus of 5.5c with buybacks being considered.

Overweight. Target $2.20. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.92
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.84, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

AMP has guided to 2026 margins that are below expectations across all divisions and Ord Minnett points out it did not announce a share buyback as many had expected, raising concerns the business may use its strong capital position for acquisitions.

A belated downgrade to the margin outlook, with the broker noting the company has been holding the line since the first half of 2025, may have provided a false sense of security to investors.

Ord Minnett reduces EPS estimates by -4.6% for 2026 and -8.2% for 2027, leading to a reduction in the target to $1.65 from $2.05.

Given the slide in the share price post the results, the broker now considers the risks are more than discounted and raises the rating to Buy from Accumulate.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.37
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.84, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades AMP to Buy from Neutral and lowers its target price to $1.75 from $1.90 following the 2025 result.

The broker notes underlying net profit after tax of $285m was in line but operating divisions missed by around -10% in 2H2025 on revenue margin pressure across Platforms and S&I, while the Bank also underperformed.

UBS has lowered FY26 EPS forecast by -4% with DPS reduced to 4c per share through 2027, reflecting weaker margins and a lower NIM outlook.

The broker argues the -27% share price reaction leaves the stock trading below NTA at around 11x 2026 earnings, which it views as attractive given a 10% pa EPS growth outlook.

Equally, the $287m of surplus CET1 is viewed positively with potential asset sales as providing optionality for future capital management.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.47
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.84, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

First quarter results were ahead of expectations with Macquarie noting costs are tracking ahead of plan for ANZ Bank. Cost guidance for FY26 is $11.5bn and the broker suspects, given the current run rate, that this is conservative.

Yet cost execution alone is considered unlikely to drive a further re-rating and the key medium-term risk remains revenues, with the bank currently losing market share in retail deposits, mortgages and business lending. Neutral maintained. Target edges up to $37 from $36.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $40.35 Difference: minus $3.35 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.96, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades ANZ Bank to Overweight from Equal-weight, with a higher target of $41.30 from $36.30, citing trends in 1Q26 that give the analyst greater confidence in the earnings outlook. ANZ is the preferred major bank.

Earnings for 1Q26 came in around 8% above expectations due to considerably lower-than-anticipated expenses, and there was no change to FY26 guidance.

Credit quality was robust, and the loan loss rate was around -4bps lower than estimates at circa 5bps, with the CET1 in line at around 12.5%.

EPS forecasts raised by circa 3%-5% for FY26-FY28. Morgan Stanley sees more scope for improved capital management and dividend outlook.

Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $36.30 Current Price is $40.35 Difference: minus $4.05 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.96, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Downgrade to Sell from Trim (5) -

ANZ Bank is tracking ahead of expectations, on the face of it, Morgans suggests while the beat to estimates was largely because of the speed of cost reductions.

Minor adjustments are made to FY26-28 EPS estimates to reflect market revenue strength and lower impairment charges as well as higher shares on issue. The broker downgrades to Sell from Trim given the reduced return potential at current prices.

The stock may have the lowest trading multiples among domestic peers but Morgans believes it is relatively more complex because of a larger exposure to institutional and international activities and greater reliance on wholesale and term deposit funding. Target edges up to $32.65 from $32.57.

Target price is $32.65 Current Price is $40.35 Difference: minus $7.7 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.96, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Lighten (4) -

ANZ Bank delivered a December quarter update that has allayed investor concerns regarding how it was coping with the loss of market share to larger rivals, Ord Minnett observes, pushing up the shares 8.5% on the day. 

Lending was soft with mortgage volumes up just 0.4% compared with system growth of 1.7% while business loans shrank -0.2% against a system increase of 3.0%. Cost guidance was maintained, and while this disappointed some the broker remains comfortable with the outlook.

Ord Minnett raises EPS estimates for FY26 by 4.2% and by 1.0% for FY27, leading to an increase in the target to $33 from $30. An elevated valuation means a Lighten rating is retained.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $40.35 Difference: minus $7.35 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.96, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Sell (5) -

Cash profit and costs were better than UBS expected in ANZ Bank's first quarter trading update. Cost guidance has been reaffirmed although the bank is cautious about carrying the run rate of the first quarter into the half-year.

The broker notes the credit environment remains benign, further supporting a beat to earnings yet remains cautious on the bank's strategy to reset profitability.

UBS retains a Sell rating, raising the target to $36.50 from $35.00, believing the stock has run ahead of fundamentals amid a particularly strong positive price reaction to the earnings update.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $40.35 Difference: minus $3.85 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.96, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASB as Neutral (3) -

Following a guidance update by management, Citi has cut its FY26 earnings (EBIT) forecast for Austal by -16% to $110m after an accounting error in US operations. It's felt the double counting of T-ATS incentives is confined to FY26.

The broker notes earnings beyond FY26 are broadly unchanged, though confidence in US accounts has weakened. This comes ahead of the 1H26 result on February 23.

Longer-term contract opportunities remain, particularly in Australian shipbuilding, yet caution has increased, the analysts indicate.

The target price falls by -12% to $6.90. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.31 Difference: $0.59
If ASB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.67, suggesting upside of 57.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

ASX delivered "solid" 1H26 revenue growth, according to Citi, largely offsetting a -20% worsening of costs. It's seen as encouraging that futures fees rose for the first time in three years.

The broker notes average futures fees rose 3cps on mix changes and lower rebates, though moderation is expected in H2.

FY26 cost guidance of 20-23% remains, with $35m of one-off costs (ASIC). 

Uncertainty around regulatory settings and the CEO transition clouds the outlook, the analysts suggest. it's felt trading volumes may moderate from near-record levels.

Target rises by $1.00 to $55.50. Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $55.50

Current consensus price target is $55.56, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie downgrades ASX to Neutral from Outperform, citing a review of the strategic direction of the business and change in CEO. Management has committed to providing FY27 cost guidance prior to June 30 despite cancelling its investor briefing.

The first half dividend represents a 75% payout ratio versus guidance of 75-85% and management expects the payout will be at the lower end of guidance for at least the next three dividends. Target is reduced to $56 from $58.

Target price is $56.00

Current consensus price target is $55.56, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ASX as Hold (3) -

Morgans notes the first half result from ASX was largely pre-released but considers the outcome broadly positive for the business as growth occurred across all four segments.

The broker increases FY26-28 estimates for EPS marginally, factoring in the result and better trading volumes across cash markets and futures.

Near-term uncertainty still exists around large-scale technology projects. Morgans continues to believe the elevated expense profile is weighing on the stock in the near term and retains a Hold rating. Target edges up to $58.20 from $58.10.

Target price is $58.20

Current consensus price target is $55.56, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

On further inspection, UBS lifts EPS estimates by 0.7% for FY26 and 0.2% for FY27 due to a more robust revenue outlook from higher cash equity turnover and futures volumes. The analyst raises the target price to $58.40 from $57.60 and remains Neutral rated.

****

At first glance UBS notes ASX pre-announced 1H26 underlying profit after tax, with cost and capex unchanged.

FY26 total expense growth guidance of 20-23% meets expectations, while FY26 total expense growth ex ASIC levy of 13-15% compares with consensus at 11%.

The result benefitted from stronger securities and payments revenue, beating by 3.4% on higher issuer service fees, offset by weaker listings, -2% below consensus and -4% below UBS on softer listing fees.

UBS sees some upside risk to 2H26 earnings on strength in cash equities and futures, though this may be offset by higher costs into FY27. Neutral rated. Target $57.60.

Target price is $58.40

Current consensus price target is $55.56, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BMN as Buy (1) -

Bannerman Energy has announced that China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) will acquire a 45% stake in the Etango Uranium project. CNNC will pay an upfront cash payment of US$294.5m into the newly formed JV as well as a US$27m payment to compensate for costs

The transaction includes an offtake agreement with CNNC taking 60% of Etango output. That is very bullish for the uranium market, Shaw and Partners suggests, and Western utilities are likely to be dismayed by this deal.

Shaw would have preferred to see Bannerman retain its 95% interest in the project and fund project construction with equity. However, equity markets remain slow to recognise the huge upside ahead in uranium equities.

Shaw retains a Buy rating and is now reviewing its $4.70 target.

Target price is $4.70

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BRG as Buy (1) -

Breville Group's 1H26 profit of $98.2m was broadly in line with Citi's forecast.  A 19cps dividend was declared, slightly above consensus.

The broker considers weaker distributor markets largely cyclical, pointing to stronger direct-market momentum as the better indicator.

Breville’s conference call was positive, in the analysts view, highlighting traction in new product development (NPD), Beanz and AI amid supply chain transformation. It's thought tariff pressures on gross margins may have peaked.

SharkNinja’s coffee growth may expand the category rather than threaten share, Citi suggests, supporting Breville’s structural growth outlook.

Target $36.03. Buy.

Target price is $36.03 Current Price is $34.01 Difference: $2.02
If BRG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.26, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BRG as Outperform (1) -

First half results from Breville Group show it has countered the US tariff impact via manufacturing diversity, tail pricing, distribution mix and gross margin strength in Australasia & Asia and EMEA, and gross profit margins only declined -130 basis points which was better than Macquarie expected.

The company has controlled growth in China to ensure service and pricing reflect its premium product with coffee, new market entries and new product development driving outperformance versus sector peers, the broker adds. Target is reduced to $38.50 from $39.20 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $38.50 Current Price is $34.01 Difference: $4.49
If BRG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.26, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BRG as Buy (1) -

First half results from Breville Group were better than Morgans expected as strong revenue growth offset a gross margin impact related to US tariffs.

The company has guided to an increase in FY26 EBIT and the broker is encouraged by improved visibility into FY27, expecting a strong organic growth trajectory will resume.

Buy rating retained and the target is raised to $40.65 from $36.05.

Target price is $40.65 Current Price is $34.01 Difference: $6.64
If BRG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.26, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRG as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett assesses, having navigated its manufacturing transition, Breville Group has achieved a solid performance in the first half despite US tariff headwinds.

The company appears positioned to return to double-digit earnings growth in FY27 and the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.

First half underlying net profit of $98.2m was largely in line with forecasts. The Americas led with 11.1% growth. Guidance for a modest increase in EBIT in FY26 appears prudent to the broker. Target is raised to $37.20 from $35.00.

Target price is $37.20 Current Price is $34.01 Difference: $3.19
If BRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.26, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BRG as Buy (1) -

Breville Group's 1H26 result was viewed positively by UBS, with the broker retaining a Buy rating and lifting the target to $39.00 from $37.50.

Sales rose 10.1% y/y, while earnings (EBIT) and net profit after tax increased 0.7%, with net profit of $98.2m slightly below expectations.

UBS notes revenue was marginally softer but gross margin was stronger than forecast, and FY26 earnings (EBIT) guidance for a slight increase on FY25 sits ahead of consensus.

The broker highlights continued strength in direct markets and coffee, with AI adoption expected to support faster share gains and improved execution. Forecasts are broadly unchanged, with potential margin upside from FY27 as tariff exposure reduces.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $34.01 Difference: $4.99
If BRG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.26, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BWP as Buy (1) -

In a quick response to today's release, Citi concludes BWP Trust's 1H26 DPS of 9.6cps slightly missed its own forecast, but it is in line with consensus.

NTA of $4.00 per unit is up 0.5%, which means the shares are trading on a -7.5% discount to NTA. FY26 distribution reaffirmed at 19.41cps (up 4.1% on FY25) in line with expectations.

Commentary also highlights eight Large Format Retail market rent reviews were completed at a 7.6% average increase. The broker reminds us all BWP internalised its management structure aligning closer with investors.

Buy. Target $4.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0.3
If BWP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CGS as Re-Initiate Coverage with a Buy (1) -

Bell Potter re-initiates coverage of Cogstate with a Buy rating and $2.90 target noting it is a highly specilalised and leading service provider to over 100 global biopharms customers in the clinical trials industry.

The broker points to strong 1H26 new contract sales of $41.7m, lifting backlog by $16.0m to $92.3m, and expects 11% and 10% revenue growth in FY26 and FY27, with EPS growth of around 21% in FY27.

Positive thematics include rising Alzheimer’s trial activity, broader CNS diversification and leverage to the Medidata partnership.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.78
If CGS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Buy (1) -

Citi notes McDonald’s 4Q25 result suggests rising competitive pressure across Australian small-cap quick service restaurant (QSR) operators.

The broker highlights pressure from higher interest rates and evolving consumer preferences. Also, increased GLP-1 usage could accelerate demand for lower sugar beverages and higher protein options, explains the analyst.

It's thought Collins Foods faces the greatest risk, with Domino's Pizza Enterprises and Guzman y Gomez less exposed.

For Collins Foods, Citi suggests menu innovation may need to quicken, potentially limiting KFC’s Kwench opportunity.

Buy. Target $12.85.

Target price is $12.85 Current Price is $10.43 Difference: $2.42
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.06, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CLW as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Upon further analysis of interim results for Charter Hall Long WALE REIT, Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target $4.70.

A summary of the broker's original thoughts yesterday follows.

On first inspection Citi notes Charter Hall Long WALE REIT reported 1H26 EPS of 12.7c, slightly below its 13.1c forecast but in line with consensus, with FY26 guidance retained.

The 1H26 dividend was pre-announced at 12.7c, in line with EPS and implying a 100% payout ratio. NTA rose 2% to $4.68 per share, with the stock trading at a -20% discount, while asset values increased on income growth of 2.5% and stable cap rates of 5.4%, the analyst notes.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.98
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

First half operating earnings were in line with Macquarie's expectations. Charter Hall Long WALE REIT is seen recycling capital into accretive opportunities while the balance sheet requires further recycling to pursue growth.

Limited earnings growth in the near term as well as rising floating rates keeps the broker on a Neutral setting.

The stock is trading at a -20% discount to NTA which provides some support. Macquarie expects the business will be relying on continued capital recycling rather than funding additional acquisitions through debt. Target is reduced to $3.75 from $3.96.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.03
If CLW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CLW as Equal-weight (3) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT announced 1H26 EPS of 12.75c per share, which met Morgan Stanley's expectations, with FY26 guidance retained, which aligns with expectations.

The REIT has addressed the broker's debt concerns by taking out additional swaps, with circa 71% of FY27 debt now hedged, although the hedge rate is 3%, which could be an impediment to EPS down the track.

NTA rose 2% to $4.68, with a 5.4% flat cap rate, although there was some compression for convenience net lease assets of -10bps and office increased 10bps.

The analyst highlights the REIT has invested $17.6m into a new Charter Hall ((CHC)) Long WALE Office partnership, which suggests the latter has been setting up new vehicles, transferring assets and earning fees.

The analyst has an unchanged Equal-weight rating. Target $4.62. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.62 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.9
If CLW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CLW as Sell (5) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT’s 1H26 result was in line with UBS, with operating earnings of $90.6m (12.8c) and NTA rising 2.0% to $4.68.

UBS retains a Sell rating and an unchanged $3.75 target, arguing the stock is still not “in the hitting zone” given look-through gearing has lifted to 41.0% following around $230m of net acquisitions.

The analyst highlights FY27 debt hedging has been lifted to 71% at a 3.0% hedge rate, and $701m of debt facilities were refinanced, reducing group debt margins to 1.40% (down -5bps).

FY26 EPS and DPS guidance of 25.5c is unchanged, with downtime at the Telstra Canberra head office already factored into guidance.

UBS makes modest earnings changes and sees CLW as one of the better positioned A-REITs if bond yields and cash rate expectations retreat, but believes it is too early to pay for the back-ended growth profile.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.03
If CLW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Neutral (3) -

Despite first half results being disappointing, Macquarie notes CSL has maintained its FY26 guidance with the second half expected to be supported by immunoglobulin, albumin and new products.

The broker reiterates a Neutral rating although observes significant headwinds into the second half amid ongoing structural changes in the sector.

Macquarie is constructive on interim CEO Gordon Naylor but highlights significant hurdles to reach net profit guidance for FY26. Coverage is transferred to Brian Tan from Christine Trinh. Target is lowered to $176 from $188.

Target price is $176.00 Current Price is $152.19 Difference: $23.81
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $205.76, suggesting upside of 37.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Sell (5) -

Citi notes McDonald’s 4Q25 result suggests rising competitive pressure across Australian small-cap quick service restaurant (QSR) operators.

The broker highlights pressure from higher interest rates and evolving consumer preferences. Also, increased GLP-1 usage could accelerate demand for lower sugar beverages and higher protein options, explains the analyst.

It's thought Collins Foods faces the greatest risk, with Domino's Pizza Enterprises and Guzman y Gomez less exposed.

The target for Domino's Pizza Enterprises is $19.85. Sell.

Target price is $19.85 Current Price is $21.91 Difference: minus $2.06 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.51, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DPM as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

DPM Metals delivered fourth quarter adjusted net profit of US$170m, below Macquarie's estimates.

The stock has had a strong performance, up 30% in the year to date, and after incorporating the three-year outlook the broker believes it is trading on a fair valuation, downgrading to Neutral from Outperform.

2026 capital costs are now higher, with additional capital brought forward at Coka Rakita and more expenditure at Vares. Target is down to $58 from $59.

Target price is $58.00 Current Price is $56.03 Difference: $1.97
If DPM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Following interim results, Citi raises its target for Evolution Mining to $16.20 from $14.40 and maintains a Neutral rating, noting an implied gold price of US$4,670/oz is high compared with peers.

The broker's initial assessment on results day is summarised below.

Citi notes Evolution Mining’s 20c fully franked interim dividend exceeded 17c consensus expectations. The Dividend Reinvestment Plan has been reinstated without a discount.

The interim result was broadly in line with consensus expectations, notes the broker, with earnings of $1,589m and profit of $802m both slight "beats".

Capital commitments increased, the analyst highlights, with -$545m approved for the Northparkes E22 block cave and -$75m for coarse particle flotation. The broker also notes expansions at Earnest Henry and further study work at Northparkes.

Citi points to higher development and project capital guidance reflecting new approvals.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $16.03 Difference: minus $1.63 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.68, suggesting downside of -11.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDF as Accumulate (2) -

First half earnings and distributions from Garda Property were largely in line with estimates. FY26 FFO guidance has been upgraded to 10c per security with a distribution of 8.5c.

Morgans observes the business continues to redeploy capital into higher yielding lending activities with the loan book expanding materially and becoming a key driver of growth.

An Accumulate rating is retained with the target lowered to $1.35 from $1.40. Weak sentiment towards interest-rate sensitive stocks is offsetting positive business fundamentals, the broker points out.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.16
If GDF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GQG as Buy (1) -

At first glance, GQG Partners beat UBS' estimates slightly in terms of distributable earnings while quality was also ahead of expectations in the second half. February has started strongly with funds under management of $172.4bn.

The broker suspects the consensus performance fee outlook will need to be rebased lower in light of investment underperformance that will be partially offset by lower operating expenditure. Buy rating and $2 target.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.39
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GYG as Sell (5) -

Citi notes McDonald’s 4Q25 result suggests rising competitive pressure across Australian small-cap quick service restaurant (QSR) operators.

The broker highlights pressure from higher interest rates and evolving consumer preferences. Also, increased GLP-1 usage could accelerate demand for lower sugar beverages and higher protein options, explains the analyst.

It's thought Collins Foods faces the greatest risk, with Domino's Pizza Enterprises and Guzman y Gomez less exposed.

The target for Guzman y Gomez is $21.05. Sell.

Target price is $21.05 Current Price is $20.35 Difference: $0.7
If GYG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.71, suggesting upside of 44.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HDN as Accumulate (2) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT posted a "consistent" result in the first half, Morgans suggests, as property fundamentals provided net operating income growth of 4.6% and NTA growth of 5.4%.

The stock is trading at a -17% discount to NTA with a 6.7% distribution yield and the broker highlights the value as a result, yet FFO growth greater than inflation may remain elusive for the medium term. Accumulate retained. Target edges down to $1.40 from $1.46.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.11
If HDN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.41, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HUM as Buy (1) -

Humm Group delivered a resilient 1H26 profit, Shaw and Partners suggests, down -49% year on year but in-line with the broker's expectations.

Shaw upgrades FY27 and FY28 earnings by 4-7% on more refined opex and credit loss estimates recognising Humm’s confidence that Commercial Division credit losses have peaked.

Shaw downgrades FY26 earnings by more than -10% by incorporating into its model the early February announcement of an -$20m negative litigation judgement.

The balance sheet remains solid, and as such Humm increased its interim dividend to 1.5c. Buy and 85c target retained.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.12
If HUM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Following interim results for Insurance Australia Group, Citi lowers its target to $8.30 from $9.00 and maintains a Buy rating.

Management is now guiding to the lower end of its prior FY26 reported profit range. A small buyback is positive, suggests the broker.

The broker's initial assessment on results day is summarised below.

First half earnings of $507m from Insurance Australia Group were ahead of Citi's estimates. At first glance, the broker points out this is a strong result with particularly strong underlying margin, helped by reinsurance profit conditions.

There was an exceptionally high margin in New Zealand as well, which the broker suspects will be unsustainable. Topline growth remains weak and there is a risk the market will focus on this aspect.

Despite that Citi believes the strong beat versus expectations and a new small share buyback could mean the stock trades higher. 

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $1.5
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.45, suggesting upside of 23.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

Insurance Australia Group has downgraded gross written premium growth and Insurance Profit guidance for FY26 as RACQ catastrophes slipped between reinsurance covers -- a gap which has now closed, Macquarie notes.

IAG's interim dividend was flat year on year and the insurer announced a buy-back of "up to $200m" which could be increased with delays in RACWA.

At current valuations, Macquarie believes the stock is cheap, with earnings (and dividends) quarantined in 2H26 and reinsurance costs protected for the next three years. The stock is trading at a -24% discount to global peers with similar reinsurance structures.

Target rises to $9.00 from $8.90, Outperform retained.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $2.2
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.45, suggesting upside of 23.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley lowers the target price on Insurance Australia Group to $7.50 from $8.45, with an unchanged Equal-weight rating post the 1H26 result, which was viewed as "solid".

The analyst points to how many one-offs boosted earnings at a time when top-line growth slowed and there are rising concerns around AI-generated price discovery in personal insurance lines, as reasons for investor concern and the de-rating of the stock.

Premium growth eased over 1H26 to just 2.2%, and the broker is forecasting around 8% growth in FY26 or around 1% ex RACQ.

Management aims to pursue the RAC WA deal to help with growth but notably announced a $200m share buyback, with Morgan Stanley flagging another $300m in FY27.

Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $0.7
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.45, suggesting upside of 23.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Further to the first half results, which were ahead of expectations, UBS believes the drop in the share price reflects renewed concerns regarding premium growth and a clouded margin outlook, given RACQ losses and questions over the RI profit commission sustainability.

The broker still expects improvements on these fronts with a strong margin expansion story providing support. With capacity for ongoing capital management and a relatively undemanding PE multiple a Buy rating is reiterated. Target price $9.

The broker lifts FY26 EPS by 4% and makes small upgrades to FY27 and FY28, supported by the $200m buyback

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $2.2
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.45, suggesting upside of 23.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

IGO has provided a resource and reserve estimate update for Greenbushes, delivering a 9% increase in contained lithium. Underground potential is highlighted, with the avoidance of surface infrastructure a positive, Macquarie notes.

IGO's Dec Q was mixed, Macquarie suggests, with in-line production and a sales miss. The 1H26 group underlying earnings miss was attributable to Kwinana accounting treatment. A CGP3 ramp-up update is a key near-term focus.

Outperform retained, target falls to $9.25 from $9.50.

Target price is $9.25 Current Price is $8.71 Difference: $0.54
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.59, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter upgrades the target price on Light & Wonder to $230 from $176 and retains a Buy rating on the stock ahead of the 4Q2025 earnings report.

The analyst's forecast for 2025 sits below consensus by -1%, and expectations around the 4Q result are low, with management already warning shipments have been moved to 1Q2026 for Asian exports.

The Indiana charitable gaming opening also looks to have been deferred to 1Q2026, with regulatory approvals in December, the broker explains.

Bell Potter tweaks EPS forecasts down by -1% for 2025 and 2026.

Target price is $230.00 Current Price is $151.95 Difference: $78.05
If LNW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $212.71, suggesting upside of 54.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett points out price strength in rare earths has been caused by China restricting refinery output and whether the price run continues following the New Year holidays may depend on whether this is a new gambit by Beijing, or unintended.

Lacking insight for now the broker assumes the price spike will be short lived and retains a Sell rating and $11 target for Lynas Rare Earths.

Ord Minnett notes the company is attempting to benefit from the geostrategic struggle through MoUs with magnet makers and for IAC ore with Malaysia and announcements on any of these could be catalysts.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $16.00 Difference: minus $5 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.08, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MQG as Hold (3) -

Macquarie Group benefited from market-facing businesses in the third quarter with substantially stronger results, Morgans notes. Additionally there was an upgrade to CGM guidance, which has been offset to some degree by a higher expected FY26 tax rate.

The broker considers the stock a quality franchise that is well exposed to structural growth such as infrastructure and green energy, although trading on a PE of 20x and with earnings delivery more patchy recently believes it is fair value. Hold rating. Target rises to $223.52 from $215.70.

Target price is $223.52 Current Price is $218.15 Difference: $5.37
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $229.70, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

In an initial assement of today's interim result by Nick Scali, Citi notes profit of $41m beat guidance and consensus. A 39cps dividend also compares to the 32c expected by the market. Gross margin reached 65.4% (consensus 64.8%) with A&NZ expansion of 150bps.

The broker highlights stronger UK margins and disciplined costs. Management guided to six new A&NZ stores in FY26. UK January sales were robust, suggest the analysts, though 1H UK revenue lagged forecasts.

On the flipside, Citi feels nvestors may be underwhelmed by A&NZ January 2026 written sales growth of 3.1%, particularly given an easy comparative period.

Also. the current order book suggests to the broker current consensus 2H26 revenue expectations could prove optimistic amid rising interest rates.

Target $27.95. Buy.

Target price is $27.95 Current Price is $23.79 Difference: $4.16
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.81, suggesting upside of 39.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Citi views today's announcement of nib Holdings $67.5m sale of World Nomads as modestly positive. It is expected to generatie about $70m in net cash. The transaction excludes other nib Travel brands under review.

The broker notes nib Travel contributed $6.7m of FY25 Group underlying operating profit (UOP) of $239.2m.

Most proceeds from the transaction are expected in 2026, prompting a capital management review. A $50m return could equal roughly 10cps, potentially fully franked, highlight the analysts.

Buy. Target price $8.15.

Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $6.38 Difference: $1.77
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.52, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NSR as Neutral (3) -

UBS retains a Neutral rating on National Storage REIT with an unchanged $2.80 target following the 1H26 result.

Underlying EPS of 6.0c was in line, and the broker highlights RevPAM growth of 5.3% and improving occupancy as enquiry levels lifted on heavier marketing and discounting.

UBS notes the focus now shifts to the scheme vote, with the broker viewing the April 2026 implementation timeline as the key catalyst.

The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by  -13% on average for FY26-FY30, largely reflecting the pause in JV sell-down activity, which mechanically lifts interest expense and reduces JV income. 

The MAC (Material Adverse Change) clause is unlikely to be breached as it requires net assets to decline below $3,460.8bn by 2H26.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $0.05
If NSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Following interim results for Northern Star Resources, Citi raises its target to $33.40 from $28.60 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Unchanged guidance and a 25cps dividend pleased the market, suggests the analyst.

The broker models a KCGM mill ramp-up conservatively at 19mtpa versus 23mtpa guidance. Jundee production is forecast at 233koz using a 3g/t grade, around -10% below the consensus forecast.

Short-term downside risks remain, according to Citi, yet valuation appears compelling at US$3,800/oz gold and 0.62x P/NAV.

Target price is $33.40 Current Price is $29.39 Difference: $4.01
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.82, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star Resources' 1H26 delivered a dividend of 25c, a 26% beat versus consensus, equating to 33% cash earnings payout, Macquarie notes, which is higher than the 25-30% target. No changes to FY26 guidance following January downgrades.

The final investment decision for Hemi is now expected during FY27 and timeline to first production has been pushed back to FY30 versus Macquarie's prior expectations of FY29.

Northern Star should now be approaching clean air over the short term, Macquarie suggests, and at current multiples appears an attractive entry point. Outperform and $32 target retained.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $29.39 Difference: $2.61
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.82, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Sell (5) -

Northern Star Resources' 1H26 result disappointed UBS, with the broker retaining a Sell rating and lowering the target price to $28.00 from $28.30.

The interim dividend of 25cps was above expectations. UBS notes it implies a 33% payout, above the company’s stated 20% to 30% range.

The broker expects further downgrade risk, with FY26 production forecast at circa 1,530koz and AISC at around $2,850/oz, both outside guidance.

UBS also delays Hemi first production by a further six months to 2H2030, citing timing and execution risk.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $29.39 Difference: minus $1.39 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.82, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Buy (1) -

Citi expects Netwealth Group's 1H26 result to be broadly in line with consensus expectations, forecasting core profit of $65m, up 15% year-on-year. The revenue margin is forecast to rise to 31.7bps and the EBITDA margin to slip by circa -40bps to 49.4%.

The broker sees attention centred on the step-up in opex, with FY26 guidance implying costs of around -$199m. Compliance, technology investment and additional headcount appear key drivers, though forecast margins are held near 49% through FY28.

Flow guidance should be reiterated, suggests the broker, and 2H26 flows may surprise positively.

Buy-rated with $28.90 target.

Target price is $28.90 Current Price is $22.30 Difference: $6.6
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.67, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

After Citi's initial assessment yesterday (see summary below), the broker retains its Neutral rating, noting the environment remains uncertain. The analyst is also cautious around the potential impacts of oral GLP-1’s. Target $2.30.

From yesterday:

On first glance, Citi notes a slight 1H26 beat from Orora with earnings (EBIT) around 2% above consensus but boosted by D&A, with earnings (EBITDA) coming in line with expectations.

Can revenue in 1H26 rose 11%, a beat above consensus, with volumes up 11% and a pass through of a 3% aluminium price rise alongside an organic price increase of 4%. Commentary infers no growth in 2H26, the analyst remarks.

Saverglass earnings (EBIT) met expectations with guidance maintained. Overall, Citi highlights guidance stayed the same across segments but flags more detail is needed from the management call.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.09
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

Orora's 1H26 earnings and profit beat Macquarie by 2% and 3%. FY26 guidance reiteration is a positive amid a mixed macro environment, the broker suggests.

Cans division expansions are on track along with a greater than $50m incremental earnings target by FY30. Cans is the "jewel in the crown", Macquarie notes, with a positive earnings growth outlook while Glass is holding its own despite sector challenges.

Global spirits company results are likely to show a still mixed backdrop for the sector, but Macquarie believes the worst appears to have passed for Saverglass and cost-out initiatives increase leverage to a recovery.

Target rises to $2.45 from $2.35, Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.24
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORA as Hold (3) -

First half results from Orora was slightly ahead of expectations. The can segment was a highlight for Morgans, delivering strong volume growth amid the continued shift towards aluminium and expansion of new categories.

Pressure continues in the global spirits and wine market. The broker considers the stock a defensive business with solid global position in beverages and robust balance sheet.

The on-market share buyback is expected to support the shares in the short term with potential upside if takeover interest re-emerges.

Global consumer demand remains subdued and may be further dampened by geopolitical uncertainty and as such the broker believes the current share price fairly reflects the range of outcomes. Hold retained. Target is $2.30.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.09
If ORA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

UBS retains a Neutral rating on Orora with an unchanged $2.40 target following a 1H26 result broadly in line with consensus.

Earnings (EBIT) rose 9% y/y to $131m, 2% ahead of consensus, supported by growth of 11% cans volumes, while Saverglass volumes grew 2.6% but revenue declined on negative mix.

Operating cash flow beat by 13%, with leverage at 0.9x, enabling a new on-market buyback of up to 10% of issued capital, or around $270m.

Management reiterated FY26 guidance  across earnings (EBITDA), cash flow, net interest, D&A and capex, with Cans EBIT expected to be higher and Saverglass EBIT broadly flat in EUR terms.

UBS makes modest EPS upgrades reflecting the updated buyback and continues to see subdued global wine and spirits demand as a near-term constraint.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.19
If ORA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights Origin Energy’s "strong" 1HFY26 result and upgraded Energy Markets guidance, reinforcing confidence in FY26.

Electricity gross profit of $47/MWh exceeds the $25–40/MWh through-cycle range, supporting the analyst's view that guidance is conservative.

The broker expects portfolio optimisation and -$100-150m of FY26 cost reductions to help offset softer FY27 electricity tariffs.

Lower wholesale prices and Default Market Offer (DMO) reform may pressure retail margins, though it's thought fixed costs and flexibility assets will help offset.

Note: DMO is the regulated reference electricity price set annually by the Australian Energy Regulator for customers on standing retail contracts in NSW, southeast Queensland and South Australia.

Buy rating and $13 target unchanged.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.50 Difference: $1.5
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.03, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Origin Energy saw a strong 1H26 in Energy Markets and APLNG, offset by weaker Octopus and natural gas. An Energy Markets guidance lift is encouraging for margin outlook, and Macquarie remains constructive on Octopus' long-term market share potential.

Oil price headwinds nevertheless persist, Macquarie notes, along with gas reform uncertainty and depressed Kraken valuation weighing down Octopus.

Neutral and $11.25 target retained.

Target price is $11.25 Current Price is $11.50 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.03, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley flagged an initial positive reaction to Origin Energy's 1H26 results, with higher FY26 energy markets guidance and customer growth for Octopus Energy and Kraken.

Earnings (EBITDA) for the period declined -17% y/y and missed the analyst's forecast by -3% but were better than consensus by 3%. Net profit after tax also missed the broker's expectations but exceeded the market consensus.

Origin raised energy markets earnings guidance for FY26 due to a rise in the wholesale component of customer tariffs and lease-accounted battery contributions, the analyst explains. A 30c per share dividend was in line with expectations.

Underweight retained. Target $10.88. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $10.88 Current Price is $11.50 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.03, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

On further inspection, UBS lifts FY26 EPS forecast by 8% on better gas/LNG trading and lower D&A and lowers FY27 by -5% due to the delay in new battery earnings from Supernode and Mortlake.

****

In an initial response, UBS reports Origin Energy posted modest beats on underlying earnings and profit, helped by a strong result in Energy Markets (EM) in particular due to rising electricity portfolio gross profit margins, allowing Origin to lift FY26 EM guidance 6% at the midpoint.

Gross profit margins in FY27 will benefit from new battery earnings, partly offset by softer wholesale electricity prices.

A 1H26 loss in Origin's share of Octopus earnings is the only blemish, UBS suggests, however this was expected (seasonal) and FY26 guidance is unchanged.

Further investment in the proposed Golden Beach underground gas storage project hints at a potential development over the next twelve months. Buy and $14 target retained.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.50 Difference: $2.5
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.03, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Paladin Energy reported revenue of US$138m for 1H26, which met Morgan Stanley's expectations, with sales and pricing pre-flagged.

Earnings (EBITDA) came in at US$30m, which was 54.7% above the broker's forecast and 8.6% above consensus on inventory movements, while cash flow was softer from working capital needs.

Capex came in at -US$25m, above forecast by 9.3%, due to Langer Heinrich mine stripping. FY26 guidance was retained by management, with Langer Heinrich ramp up on track and Patterson Lake South progressing.

Overweight rating and $14.45 target price. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $14.45 Current Price is $12.34 Difference: $2.11
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.93, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDN as Sell (5) -

Paladin Energy continues to make strong progress at Langer Heinrich having resolved prior commissioning issues related to feed grade variability. Ord Minnett notes it should hit annualised nameplate production levels of 6mlb/pa within six months.

The broker points out the first half result was largely previewed in the December quarter production report with statutory net losses for the consolidated group slightly below expectations.

Ord Minnett updates modelling to capture the result but makes no changes to forward-looking estimates. Sell rating and $9.75 target retained on valuation grounds.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $12.34 Difference: minus $2.59 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.93, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PME as Buy (1) -

Pro Medicus delivered a 28% increase in revenues in the first half and 29% increase in earnings, with the earnings margin preserved at 72%. The outlook statements continue to support expectations of robust growth in the years ahead, Bell Potter notes.

The result was nevertheless an -8% miss versus consensus. For the first time in several reporting periods top line growth slipped below 30%, Bell Potter points out, and in addition salaries and wages costs increase by 25% relative to 2H25 and were higher than market expectation.

Bell Potter notes the earnings miss could not have been more poorly timed in an environment of hyper-sensitivity to the perceived threat to long term earnings posed by the evolution of advanced AI tools. The stock had been "priced to perfection".

Target falls to $240 from $320, including a revaluation now applied to software providers. Buy retained.

Target price is $240.00 Current Price is $129.00 Difference: $111
If PME meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $273.17, suggesting upside of 131.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PME as Buy (1) -

The analysts at Citi argue the sell-off in shares of Pro Medicus is overdone despite contract ramp timing shifting earnings into 2H. Revenue deferral and FX headwinds drive the broker's -13% FY27-29 forecast cuts. The price target falls to $300.

Citi highlights only two months of a major implementation were recognised in 1H, skewing growth expectations. While AI sentiment may pressure shares, management sees limited structural threat.

While delivery must remain near perfect, in the analysts' view, competitive positioning and AI partnership potential support confidence.

Target falls to $300 from $350. Buy maintained.

Target price is $300.00 Current Price is $129.00 Difference: $171
If PME meets the Citi target it will return approximately 133% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $273.17, suggesting upside of 131.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PME as Outperform (1) -

Pro Medicus' 1H26 miss was driven by a revenue skew to the second half, Macquarie notes, as well as higher than expected employee expenses, including one-off incentive payments.

The company sees AI as a significant tailwind rather than a disruptive threat, adding productivity gains over and above the existing more than 25% gains with Visage 7. Pro Medicus has launched generative AI tools such as error checking and dictation with additional reporting tools incoming.

Macquarie sees this supporting fee-per-click increases for both new and renewed contacts which have historically been high single digits. Pro Medicus' scalable model, contract momentum and expanding multi-ology pipeline support growth despite heightened market sensitivity.

Target falls to $244.00 from $291.30, Outperform retained.

Target price is $244.00 Current Price is $129.00 Difference: $115
If PME meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $273.17, suggesting upside of 131.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PME as Overweight (1) -

Pro Medicus reported 1H26 results which missed expectations across revenue, earnings (EBITDA) and NPAT by -2%, -4% and -8%, respectively, due to later-than-assumed contributions from large contract implementations, notably Trinity, Morgan Stanley highlights.

The high valuation multiple going into earnings left it vulnerable to even a marginal earnings miss and, while management pushed back on AI-disruption concerns, the fears are continuing to weigh on sentiment, commentary states.

The broker continues to see a positive growth outlook for Pro Medicus as US market share rises above 10% and considers the -20%-plus share price sell-off as overdone.

The analyst retains an Overweight rating and remains "firm buyers" on the recent price weakness, while lowering the target price to $275 from $350. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $275.00 Current Price is $129.00 Difference: $146
If PME meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 113% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $273.17, suggesting upside of 131.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PME as Buy (1) -

While Pro Medicus delivered record interim revenue and earnings (EBIT), Morgans explains margins disappointed amid higher staff costs and weaker contributions from the Trinity contract.

Operating leverage underwhelmed, yet the negative share price reaction is an overreaction, suggests the analysts, given $280m in new contracts and $1.1bn in five-year contracted revenue. It's felt the setup into 2H is far better than the share price implies.

Revenue rose 28%, but EBITDA missed the broker's forecasts by around -7% given a 44% jump in employee expenses.

A 32c interim dividend was declared compared to the 35c forecast by Morgans.

The broker's target falls to $275 from $290. Buy retained.

Target price is $275.00 Current Price is $129.00 Difference: $146
If PME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 113% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $273.17, suggesting upside of 131.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

South32's 1H26 earnings per share beat Macquarie by 6%, with operating cash flow a -17% miss on working capital. The US3.9c dividend was a 23% beat and the buyback has been extended.

While guidance is cut at Alumar, more mine life at Cannington and resource upside at Sierra Gorda and Hermosa improved net asset values. Macquarie upgrades forecast FY26 earnings by 5% but cuts FY27-30  by -7% on Alumar production.

Macquarie remains optimistic on Hermosa's potential, reiterating Outperform. Target rises to $5.00 from $4.80.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.52 Difference: $0.48
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

South32 reported a robust 1H26 result with a better-than-expected DPS of US$0.04, 17% above Morgan Stanley's forecast and 21.9% above consensus.

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) also beat the analyst's forecast by 4.8% and consensus by 5.4% on better cost management at Worsley and Cannington, with a strong beat on underlying net profit after tax.

The analyst expects some "meaningful" upgrades to consensus forecasts following the result.

As previously noted, South32 confirmed power negotiations have failed, with Mozal now entering care and maintenance from March 15 this year. Consensus had already discounted Mozal being offline indefinitely, so there is no expected impact.

Target $4.75. Rating Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.52 Difference: $0.23
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

South32 reported "bumper" 1H26 earnings, comfortably ahead of consensus and close to Morgans' estimate, riding consistent production and higher base and precious metals prices. The dividend beat by 15% and $100m is added to the buyback.

Management warning of a second budget review for Hermosa capex was the clear negative, Morgans notes. While on the positive side, the capex-heavy Clark decline has been completed. South32 talked down any US tariff impact.

While Morgans expects the upgrade cycle probably has some way to go, the broker now views the value on-offer as far diminished versus a few months ago, after a 40% increase in share price since early December.

Target unchanged at $5.00, downgrade to Accumulate from Buy.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.52 Difference: $0.48
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

First half earnings from South32 were largely in line with UBS estimates and margins expanded as the quality of the portfolio improved. Cannington provided a positive surprise with an increase in reserves and mine life extension.

The main detraction was the downgrade of guidance for the Alumar smelter. The company has added $100m to the buyback. UBS trims the price target to $5.10 from $5.30 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.52 Difference: $0.58
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -

Santos has updated financial guidance for some items in its 2025 result which Ord Minnett suggests is designed to temper market expectations ahead of the scheduled release on February 18.

The broker suspects a downgrade to consensus estimates of around -2% for underlying net profit as a result of the announcement, mainly because of a materially higher effective tax rate.

Ord Minnett cuts EPS estimates by -8.4% for 2025 and by -14.2% for 2026. Target is reduced to $7.50 from $7.60 and a Buy rating is maintained on valuation grounds.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.82 Difference: $0.68
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.20, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TCG as Buy (1) -

Morgans recently attended a site visit to Turaco Gold’s Afema Gold Project in Cote d’Ivoire, which represents one of the largest undeveloped gold projects on the ASX.

Commentary suggests Afema is characteristic of a major belt-scale opportunity, capable of delivering over more than 5Moz in gold resources.

While Morgans views exploration to drive the short to mid-term value, existing resources provide line of sight to a solid, cash generative future mining operation.

Target rises to $2.19 from $1.63, Buy retained.

Target price is $2.19 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $1.48
If TCG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 208% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TPW as Buy (1) -

Temple & Webster's 1H26 earnings were a -12% miss to consensus. The revenue growth returned back into the company’s target range of 20% (20-36%), however on a significantly higher investment in delivered margins (30.5%).

Marketing cost as a percentage of sales also remained towards the top end of the target range of 14-16%. The competitive environment, coupled with a value driven customer, has seen the company pulling levers on price beyond supplier-funded promotions during the seasonal period, Bell Potter notes.

Bell Potter sees Temple & Webster reverting back to valuation levels in Oct-23 at which time the company was growing revenue at sub 20% and sees some downside risk priced in. 

However, potential for removal from the ASX200 Index at the next rebalance in March remains. Target falls to $13.00 from $19.50, Buy retained.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $7.64 Difference: $5.36
If TPW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.88, suggesting upside of 108.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TPW as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi's target for Temple & Webster has remained at $15.38 despite materially-lower forecasts following yesterday's interim result. The broker does upgrade its rating to Buy from Neutral.

A summary of the analyst's research yesterday follows.

In an initial response, Citi reports Temple & Webster's 1H26 profit missed expectations by -32%. Revenue was broadly in line, but gross profit margin was 31.4%, below 32.9% consensus, suggesting discounting picked up.

The result revealed 1H26 revenue growth accelerated since the AGM trading update, as Citi had flagged it would, but this may have been discounting-led. 

The net cash balance increased to $161m, which provides the company with optionality to accelerate growth organically and inorganically.

While the acceleration in revenue is positive,Citi suggests the deterioration in gross margins is likely to be in focus today.

Target price is $15.38 Current Price is $7.64 Difference: $7.74
If TPW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 101% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.88, suggesting upside of 108.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TPW as Outperform (1) -

Temple & Webster missed consensus profit forecasts by -37%, driven by a gross margin miss (-150bps) from promotional pricing to meet revenue expectations of 20% growth year on year.

Macquarie sees a difficult 2026 ahead. Maintaining top-line growth  of circa 20% may increasingly require margin-sacrificing promotion in a higher interest-rate environment.

Longer-term operating leverage and scale synergies, alongside capital distribution upside, maintain Macquarie's confidence in an Outperform rating. Target falls to $13.70 from $24.15.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $7.64 Difference: $6.06
If TPW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.88, suggesting upside of 108.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TPW as Neutral (3) -

Temple & Webster’s 1H26 result has further dented market confidence in the margin outlook, with UBS highlighting a sharp sell-off after Delivered Margin fell -150bps to 30.5%, below consensus of 31.4% 

The margin shortfall drove a -27% miss at the profit below tax line versus consensus and renewed questions around the company’s ability to sustain around 20% revenue growth while expanding margins towards its long term over 15% earnings (EBITDA) target 

For 2H26, UBS forecasts earnings (EBITDA) of $12.1m and $25.6m for FY26, assuming 18% revenue growth and only modest sequential margin improvement, with marketing cost leverage expected to offset ongoing promotional intensity 

UBS FY26-28 EPS forecasts are cut by -17%, -15% and -20%, driving a -34% reduction in the price target to $9.30 while maintaining a Neutral rating.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $7.64 Difference: $1.66
If TPW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.88, suggesting upside of 108.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VVA as Buy (1) -

Viva Leisure reported a solid 1H26 result, Morgans suggests, delivering on its strategy to focus on optimising the existing network and growing the high margin technology, payments, licensing and retail division.

The result shows early signs of management executing on its strategy to focus on organic growth and profitability. The outlook for the remainder of FY26 looks positive to Morgans, with updated guidance exceeding the 4Q25 annualised earnings run-rate 5%.

Viva Leisure has a long runway for growth, Morgans suggests, through bolt-on acquisitions given the gym/fitness industry is highly fragmented and continuing to scale its franchise and technology and payments segments.

Target rises to $2.00 from $1.80, Buy retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.31
If VVA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Citi's initial response is that today's quarterly update by Westpac looks like another 'beat', but it's effectively in-line. At face value, 1Q26 cash earnings of $1.9bn are some 5% ahead of the run-rate implied by consensus.

Much of the beat stemmed from better Treasury revenue (total revenue 1% ahead of estimate) and lower bad debts, the broker explains. Not the kind of surprise that usually is seen as a genuine outperformance.

Also, ex-T&M, the core NIM declined by -1bp but was offset by higher AIEA, commentary highlights. Costs were largely in line with expectations.

Citi notes management re-iterated qualitative guidance from November. CET1 of 12.31% was in-line. Neutral. Target $39.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $41.00 Difference: minus $2 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.28, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources