Australian Broker Call

UBS rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

In the wake of in-house research into the Chinese infant formula market, the broker is more cautious on market outlook but positive on a2. The company is expected to outperform and gain share given its product is the highest regarded yet under-penetrated, and there is scope for price increases.

The broker lifts its target to NZ$12.80 from NZ$11.80 while retaining Neutral.

Current Price is $12.08. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $11.30, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AIZ as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Air NZ issued a serious profit warning yesterday with CS analysts explaining the circa -16% downgrade to guidance (at the mid-point of the revised range) is entirely caused by disappointing revenue on slower growth in domestic New Zealand leisure travel on top of softening inbound tourism.

Falling jet fuel prices have been nothing but the proverbial band-aid, it turns out. The analysts see potential for further negative news/developments. Earnings estimates have been reduced. Price target drops to NZ$2.75 from NZ$2.85.

However, given the share price has already been caned, the recommendation has been upgraded to Neutral from Underperform.

Current Price is $2.67. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIZ as Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform (5) -

A sudden drop in demand has continued into forward bookings and the airline has lowered pre-tax guidance for FY19 to NZ$340-400m.

While operating statistics and load factors held up in December the main change was weak yield from both the short and long haul, Macquarie observes.

The broker believes the market will question whether this is a structural issue, and this will remain unclear until the first half result.

Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Outperform. Target is reduced to NZ$2.55 from NZ$3.65.

Current Price is $2.67. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates ALX as Buy (1) -

APRR traffic and toll revenue was behind Deutsche Bank's expectations in the December quarter, affected by the demonstrations in France and slowing regional growth.

The broker adjusts forecasts accordingly and notes lower quarterly toll revenue is largely offset by favourable FX movements. Buy rating and $7 target maintained.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.68 Difference: $0.32
If ALX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Outperform (1) -

Protests have affected APRR traffic in the December quarter and traffic is expected to slow as consumer confidence declines amid rising fuel costs. Greenway performance was also weak with traffic down -4.5% in 2018.

Greenway traffic growth will continue to be affected by network improvements but Macquarie has started to observe a normalisation of growth. Outperform and $7.49 target retained.

Target price is $7.49 Current Price is $6.68 Difference: $0.81
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley was anticipating a negative impact from the "yellow vests" protests in France but the impact to date on APRR is not as bad as feared. Light vehicle traffic fell -2.9% in the December quarter while heavy vehicle traffic grew strongly, up 3.1%.

The company anticipates Dulles Greenway will not pass its one-new distribution lock-up test, consistent with the broker's expectations.

The impact of the US government shutdown is also expected to dampen traffic in January and Morgan Stanley forecasts no growth in FY19 for this road.

Equal-weight maintained. Target is $6.66. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $6.66 Current Price is $6.68 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALX as Add (1) -

December quarter traffic data revealed the impact of the demonstrations in France and the federal government shutdown in the US. Morgans notes both of these are temporary issues that do not impact on valuation materially.

APRR traffic was flat in the second half while toll revenue increased 2.7%. At Greenway the decline in traffic was -3.2% and revenue was down -0.6%.

Morgans maintains an Add rating and reduces the target to $6.74 from $6.76.

Target price is $6.74 Current Price is $6.68 Difference: $0.06
If ALX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALX as Buy (1) -

Atlas Arteria's Dec Q numbers showed a 1.5% increase in average toll revenue despite a -1.6% decline in traffic across the portfolio, thanks to toll inflation and a greater proportion of heavy vehicles.

APRR was impacted by "yellow vest" protests in France, the broker notes, while the decline in Dulles traffic slowed despite the US government shutdown. On that basis the broker is not altering 2020 expectations. Buy and $7.10 target retained.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.68 Difference: $0.42
If ALX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BVS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie is confident in the earnings outlook, heading into the first half result. The broker notes the high visibility on earnings and scope for earnings upside in FY19.

Moreover, industry feedback continues to indicate client demand and project opportunities are strong and the pipeline is robust.

Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $4.50 from $4.20.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: $0.28
If BVS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CAT as Add (1) -

The company has wound back the investment in its prosumer devices business after unit sales fell short of targets in the December half. Meanwhile, the Elite wearable devices and video business continues to perform strongly.

The company has maintained guidance for FY19. Morgans revises forecasts to reflect the paring back of revenue and costs in the prosumer business as well as currency movements.

Add/High Risk rating maintained. Target is raised to $1.90 from $1.88.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $1.05
If CAT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 124% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

The stock has underperformed and Morgan Stanley upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight. Nevertheless, the broker acknowledges risks continue to overhang the stock, particularly market volatility and the bottom of the interest-rate cycle.

There are also headwinds to margins as the company seeks to reduce its exposure to unrated fixed income & property.

Target is reduced to $7.85 from $10.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $7.24 Difference: $0.61
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.99, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DCN as Outperform (1) -

December quarter production was in line with estimates. Guidance has been maintained and Macquarie expects the lower end of the 180-210,000 ounces will be achieved.

Scope for grade improvements is envisaged, as the third underground stoping area is brought on line and the mining of higher-grade material ramps up.

Outperform rating and $3.20 target maintained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.6
If DCN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DLX as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update on Australian building materials companies to sneak in an upgrade for DuluxGroup; to Outperform from Neutral. The analysts state, with apparent conviction, that Australia is almost certainly going to see a contraction in building activity, especially in the high-rise multi-residential sector.

On the other hand, the analysts remain of the view that many a share price linked to the theme has, simply put, fallen too fast, too deeply. Sector order of preference: Reliance Worldwide ((RWC)), then James Hardie ((JHX)), then DuluxGroup, then Boral ((BLD)).

Specifically for DuluxGroup, the broker explains the key investment attraction lies in the company's resilience combined with consistent growth through the cycle.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $6.86 Difference: $1.04
If DLX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.15, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ELO as Overweight (1) -

Customer cash receipts were a highlight of the December quarter, Morgan Stanley notes, with implications for first half revenue. In light of the update, the broker envisages upside risk to revenue forecasts.

Overweight rating, In-Line industry view and target is $8.00.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $5.22 Difference: $2.78
If ELO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Gold production in the December quarter at Cowal was below budget. Access to the higher grade Mist zone was restricted at Mungari. Treatment of stockpiles continued at Mt Rawdon.

Weak market sentiment from the broader tariff/trade issues globally, and the upcoming Australian election, leads Morgans to discount the valuation.

While Cowal is the flagship operation, the broker attributes greater value to the company's interest in the Glencore-operated Ernest Henry mine.

Hold rating maintained. Target is raised to $3.85 from $3.28.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting downside of -15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

December quarter production was in line with Macquarie's expectations. Guidance is unchanged for shipments of 165-173mt amid cash costs of US$12-13/wmt.

Macquarie estimates the company's spot basket price has risen close to US$60/t in the past few days, almost US$15/t higher than forecasts for 2019. Outperform rating and $5.20 target maintained.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.71, suggesting downside of -16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GUD as Buy (1) -

Citi believes the issue in the company's first half result centred on the percentage of organic and acquisition growth. First half operating earnings (EBIT) grew 10%, of which the broker estimates 50% was organic.

The broker believes the drop in the share price represents a good buying opportunity and reiterates a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $14.91 from $15.50.

The company continues to flag further bolt-on automotive acquisitions and Citi estimates it could fully fund via debt up to $80m in acquisitions.

Target price is $14.91 Current Price is $11.19 Difference: $3.72
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.67, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GUD as Outperform (1) -

First half results were marginally weaker than Macquarie expected because of softer organic automotive sales growth.

The company remains confident organic growth in the automotive business will return to over 8% in the second half and produce operating earnings growth (EBIT) of around 11%.

The broker still finds the defensive earnings profile attractive, given current market conditions and options for acquisitions.

Valuation remains undemanding following the recent sell-off and the broker retains an Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $14.50 from $15.50.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $11.19 Difference: $3.31
If GUD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.67, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GUD as Hold (3) -

First half underlying earnings (EBIT) were below Ord Minnett's forecasts. The automotive business experienced weak operating cash flows and a deterioration in organic growth, which fell to less than 4% in the first half from an average of more than 8% over the past five years.

Ord Minnett suspects, given some timing issues, the business could experience a strong recovery in the second half but prefers to await the actual results. The broker maintains a Hold rating and lowers the target to $12 from $14.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $11.19 Difference: $0.81
If GUD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.67, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GUD as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

GUD's first half result missed expectations largely on slowing sales growth in Auto, which UBS puts down to an issue at AA Gaskets that appears transitional. The good news is the company's Narva Electrical & Lighting range has been built up ahead of a catalogue launch and group cash flow is typically weighted to the second half, the broker notes.

GUD's brands remain strong and on the strength of a -22% share price fall over the past six months, UBS upgrades to Buy. Target falls to $12.30 from $13.85.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $11.19 Difference: $1.11
If GUD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.67, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IVC as Hold (3) -

Morgans expects underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) to be down -5% in 2018 on the back of a material drop in the number of deaths in Australia.

The broker notes market conditions have been tough, leading to a string of downgrades over the past 12 months.

Morgans considers the short-term outlook clouded and there is ongoing disruption with the Protect & Grow program. Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $11.61 from $11.54.

Target price is $11.61 Current Price is $12.10 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If IVC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.74, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates LNK as Outperform (1) -

CS analysts highlight the company's largest client, AustralianSuper, has raised weekly administration fees by 50%. They expect part of the fee increase will be passed onto Link Administration to assist in mitigating the impact of last year's announcement of pending regulatory changes.

The increase is the first in a decade and Credit Suisse calculates it won't take much to compensate Link for (potential) loss of revenues from regulatory intervention in the sector. The analysts believe the risk seems firmly skewed to the upside.

Credit Suisse already believes it is positioned above market consensus and still thinks its forecasts might prove too low. Outperform rating retained. Target price $8.30. No changes made at this stage.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.13 Difference: $1.17
If LNK meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.50, suggesting upside of 19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Shipments from Mount Marion were 3.3% ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates in the first half. The December quarter was generally in line with the broker's expectations as all development projects are running to plan.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating, $22.20 target and Attractive industry view.

Target price is $22.20 Current Price is $15.80 Difference: $6.4
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.07, suggesting upside of 27.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MMI as Add (1) -

Metro Mining produced 743,000 wet metric tonnes of bauxite in the December quarter. Shipping was in line with guidance although mining and shipping was curtailed by Cyclone Owen in December, leading to an early shut-down for the wet season.

The company reports 75% of production is sold for 2019, with projected production of 3.5mt. Morgans maintains an Add rating and reduces the target to $0.29 from $0.34.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.14
If MMI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCM as Buy (1) -

Work has started at Cadia on the new PC2-3 block cave while the investigation into the slumped tailings dam is expected to be completed in the March quarter. Citi notes this will be a step towards deciding how to repair the dam.

Meanwhile, the company posted a strong production result in the December quarter, driven by outperformance at Cadia. The broker notes the share price has performed well, and some of the interest is likely to be related to recent gold sector corporate activity.

Newcrest is one of the few major producers not tied up with M&A, Citi observes. Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $27.35 from $24.40.

Target price is $27.35 Current Price is $24.47 Difference: $2.88
If NCM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.81, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Credit Suisse analysts seem pleased with the contents of the December quarter production report, labeling Newcrest's performance as "strong", while also noting management left FY guidance unchanged.

While the target price has been left unchanged at $20.30, the recommendation has been downgraded to Underperform from Neutral, on valuation. Earnings estimates have been lifted, also incorporating commodity and FX updates.

Target price is $20.30 Current Price is $24.47 Difference: minus $4.17 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.81, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates NCM as Hold (3) -

December quarter production was in line with Deutsche Bank estimates. Lihir and Cadia underpin group production which the broker believes will remain over 650,000 ounces per quarter until 2021.

Newcrest is the broker's preferred gold exposure in the ASX 100 because of its long-life assets. Hold rating and $24 target maintained.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $24.47 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.81, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as Underperform (5) -

The December quarter result was strong with gold production of 655,000 ounces. Grades at Cadia stood out.

Macquarie retains the view that growth options at Wafi Golpu, equity investments and the company's exploration strategy are long-dated catalysts and a falling production profile is still likely to weigh on the stock.

Underperform rating maintained. Target rises to $20 from $19.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $24.47 Difference: minus $4.47 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.81, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Equal-weight (3) -

The positive trajectory at Cadia continues, Morgan Stanley observes, with production 14% above estimates and up 12% quarter on quarter in December.

The broker notes there are plant shutdowns scheduled for the March quarter and the result of the tailing dam investigation should be forthcoming. Meanwhile, Lihir rebounded as expected.

Equal-weight rating. Target is $20.25. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $20.25 Current Price is $24.47 Difference: minus $4.22 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.81, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett observes a re-emergence of corporate-level M&A in the global gold sector has raised the question regarding the intentions of Newcrest. While cash margins and asset life are solid, Cadia and Lihir account for 90% of operating earnings (EBITDA).

The broker would not be surprised if Newcrest increased its exposure to any or all of tier-1 assets such as Golpu, Fruita del Norte or SolGold.

The broker also envisages potential for asset-level transactions, as recent mergers among global majors are likely to lead to divestments.

The company has maintained FY19 production guidance at 2.35-2.6m ozs. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate, given recent gains in the share price. Target is unchanged a $25.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $24.47 Difference: $0.53
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.81, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

Newcrest reported Dec Q production 3% ahead of the broker's forecast and costs -1% below. The miner is producing "substantially" more gold, the broker notes, at a time of gold price strength. From a valuation perspective, the stock looks expensive relative to the gold price, but is valued at a similar multiple to domestic peers despite offering a longer mine life, the broker notes.

The dividend may surprise at the upcoming result. Target rises to $24.50 from $22.70, Neutral retained.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $24.47 Difference: $0.03
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.81, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Hold (3) -

Gold production was strong in the December quarter and costs were still below FY19 guidance. Morgans re-assesses its valuation based on the current gold price and exchange rates and assigned values for the Duketon satellite and McPhillamys.

The broker then applies a discount of $0.30 per share to this value, given investor concerns about growth in China, trade issues between China & the US and European monetary issues.

As a result, Morgans maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $5.51 from $4.41.

Target price is $5.51 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.3
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.60, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

December quarter production was in line with expectations. The short-term focus is bringing the high-grade DeGrussa satellite, Monty, on line.

Sandfire has also increased its stake in the Black Butte project by 8% to 86% and flagged a delay in the permit process.

The company expects to hit the upper end of FY19 guidance for 63-67,000t copper and 37-40,000 ounces of gold.

Citi maintains a Neutral/High Risk rating and raises the target to $7.60 from $7.45.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.58
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse saw a "solid" December quarter production performance, with the analysts noting management also delivered on the expected lower cost guidance. Production guidance has increased.

The analysts have raised their forecasts. Target price remains unchanged at $6.75. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SFR as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Copper production was down -6% in the December quarter versus September, although cost guidance has improved for FY19.

While operating cash flow is solid Deutsche Bank believes finding another Monty-sized deposit is critical to sustaining DeGrussa's life beyond 2023.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy on valuation. Target is $7.25.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.23
If SFR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

December quarter production beat Macquarie's estimates and mining at Monty has commenced, with the increase in grades supporting a 3-year copper production growth rate of 9%.

Macquarie notes the company is actively looking for acquisitions, and securing an asset that can extend life beyond DeGrussa is considered a key catalyst.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $8.10 from $8.00.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $1.08
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Hold (3) -

December quarter production beat forecasts and the top end of guidance is now expected, for production of 63-67,000t copper and 37-40,000 ozs gold.

Ord Minnett likes the operations but believes the stock is fairly valued. In addition, the combination with MOD Resources ((MOD)) creates some uncertainty around the future, given the company is clearly pursuing M&A to replace production depletion at DeGrussa.

The broker maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $7.00 from $6.80.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Sell (5) -

Sandfire's Dec Q production was 9% higher than the broker's forecast and costs -17% lower. It's the second quarter in a row the miner has smashed forecasts, highlighting the pocket of high-grade material mining has struck, the broker suggests.

First ore is expected from Monty this quarter and should increase production by some 20%. The broker would be more positive but for the limited mine life in WA, and continues to assume Sandfire will look to M&A to address the issue. Target rises to $6.80 from $6.50, Sell retained.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SXY as Outperform (1) -

The December quarter was weak but Macquarie believes the second half should be stronger as horizontal wells come on line, and the earnings miss is immaterial in the scope of future earnings.

The broker believes the market has oversold the stock. Project Atlas, which makes up the majority of valuation, is uncontracted and Macquarie expects to hear news regarding the contracting of gas sales and its drilling rig in the near term.

The broker suggests this should de-link the company from its oil-price proxy, as volumes are expected to be CPI-linked. Outperform rating and $0.50 target maintained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.15
If SXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.46, suggesting upside of 32.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SXY as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes production is tracking at the lower end of the company's guidance range, although second half output is expected to be supported by recent oil discoveries and the ramp up of Roma North.

Both the Western Surat gas project and Project Atlas appear to be on schedule. Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating and $0.41 target.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.06
If SXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.46, suggesting upside of 32.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SYR as Outperform (1) -

Outperform rating retained, while the price target drops to $4.05 from $5.50 following the company's market update which included, among multiple disappointments, a lower volume guidance for 2019. Guidance for the year past was met, the analysts add.

Credit Suisse has, essentially, adopted a slower ramp up profile for production at Balama and BAM, while at the same time lowering graphite pricing. Estimates have fallen in response.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $2.47
If SYR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 156% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting upside of 72.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SYR as Hold (3) -

The company has provided guidance for 2019, which misses Deutsche Bank's expectations on all fronts. First quarter production and full year production are below forecasts while cash costs are higher.

Realised pricing is also trending lower than the broker expected. Deutsche Bank maintains a Hold rating and $2 target.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.42
If SYR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting upside of 72.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes good progress is being made at Balama and the main uncertainty is with the evolution of the mine's position in the global graphite market.

Incorporating December quarter production, lower realised and forecast pricing and a longer ramp up of commercial BAM production delivers meaningful cuts to the broker's earnings forecasts.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.70 from $3.80.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $1.12
If SYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting upside of 72.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

2018 production was in line with expectations. Morgan Stanley found guidance for 2019 somewhat disappointing from a cost perspective.

First quarter pricing is also below the broker's estimates. The business is expected to be negative on cash flow in the first quarter, which should improve as costs decline through 2019.

Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is $2.20. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.62
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting upside of 72.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SYR as Buy (1) -

Syrah's Dec Q production was in line with guidance recently downgraded due to a fire in the primary classifier unit. Inventory drawdowns helped to lift sales but management did not indicate basket pricing.

2019 cost and price guidance disappointed and the broker is also forecasting a more conservative production result than management. Yesterday's share price fall reflects uncertainty on longer term graphite pricing, the broker suggests. Buy retained, target falls to $2.65 from $2.90.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $1.07
If SYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting upside of 72.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates URW as Equal-weight (3) -

While emphasising it does not make a habit of previewing results, Morgan Stanley believes the company's report on February 13 will be more high-profile than usual.

Purchase price allocation and goodwill subsequent to the Westfield deal will be provided, as well as long-awaited updated guidance on earnings. Investors are likely to be looking for the uplift in re-letting and renewals.

Morgan Stanley expects flat net asset value per share for the medium term and "pedestrian" growth in earnings and distributions per share, owing to elevated disposals.

The broker generally envisages more downside risks, however, for other retail real estate investment trusts.

Equal-weight rating. Industry view In-Line. Price target is EUR165.

Current Price is $12.36. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $13.30, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates Z1P as Add (1) -

Morgans finds the quarterly update hard to fault, with the highlights being strong revenue and transaction growth and a reduction in bad debts. The broker increases estimates for earnings per share by 1% for FY19 and by 29% for FY20.

Potential catalysts include signing up additional large merchants and further de-risking as the business moves closer to profitability.

Speculative Add rating retained. Target is raised to $1.30 from $1.20.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.13
If Z1P meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources