Australian Broker Call
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June 26, 2020
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CRN - | Coronado Global Resources | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
FNP - | Freedom Foods | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
ORE - | Orocobre | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
SFR - | Sandfire | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
WPL - | Woodside Petroleum | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
WSA - | Western Areas | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
AHY ASALEO CARE LIMITED
Household & Personal Products
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Overnight Price: $1.00
Citi rates AHY as Buy (1) -
Asaleo Care has announced it will cease producing diapers in NZ and close the plant. (Whatever happened to nappies?) No change to guidance.
The broker remains positive on the stock thanks to stockpiling and increased demand for healthcare products. A lower currency and lower pulp prices suggest upside risk over the next 18 months. Buy and $1.30 target retained.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.3
If AHY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.19, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of 63.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates AMP as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse increases estimates for 2020 profit by 6% because of higher equity market assumptions.
While the business is strong, the broker does not expect any capital management from AMP in 2020.
Despite the share price outperforming the market by 20% in the last three months Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating.
The sale of the life business is expected to pave the way for further changes to realise value. Target is raised to $2.05 from $1.50.
Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $0.27
If AMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting downside of -15.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of 6.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.49
Citi rates AX1 as Neutral (3) -
The broker sees Accent Group as a strong retailer, dominant in its space. However, the broker cannot recommend a Buy at current valuation given high levels of uncertainty surrounding the medium term outlook.
The company's younger customer base is significantly beholden to the expiry of JobKeeper, and most sales are of a "going out" nature rather than stay-at-home. The broker prefers stay-at-home beneficiaries.
Neutral retained, target rises to $1.55 from $1.53.
Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.06
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.72, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 10.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 11.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of -1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates AX1 as Overweight (1) -
Accent Group’s FY20 sales (till June 21) were $923m, much ahead of Morgan Stanley’s estimate of $796m. The broker expects the group to finish the year broadly in-line with FY19. The strong performance was driven by the successful shift to online sales.
While it looks like FY21 will be starting on a strong note, the outlook is affected by headwinds including a potential second covid-19 wave, rising unemployment and reduction of stimulus measures, comments the broker. No equity raising is expected.
The broker has increased earnings estimates by 15-38% over FY20-22 on account of the group’s strong execution.
Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating with the target price increased to $1.90 from $1.50. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.41
If AX1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.72, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of -1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates AX1 as Add (1) -
Sales growth has bounced back over May and June, driven by online business.
FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) are now expected to be 10% ahead of FY19.
Morgans expects the negotiations with landlords should allay fears of store closures and allow for some further rolling out of stores.
The broker also believes the company has not experienced any major pulling forward of demand recently.
Add rating maintained. Target rises to $1.70 from $1.45.
Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.21
If AX1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.72, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of -1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.79
Credit Suisse rates BAP as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse believes the stock is geared for a re-rating, as the months ahead are likely to be very favourable for automotive aftermarket performance.
Industry feedback has indicated accelerated aftermarket activity in the last eight weeks.
Aside from current buoyant conditions, the broker considers there is an argument the industry will grow above trend in the next two years.
Outperform rating maintained. Target rises to $7.20 from $5.70.
Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $1.41
If BAP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.78, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.54 cents and EPS of 27.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of -20.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.02 cents and EPS of 29.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BAP as Outperform (1) -
FY20 guidance has been reinstated with net profit expected to be $84-88m. Trading in May and June has been very strong.
Macquarie observes the defensive attributes of the business are on show, supporting a solid outlook for FY21.
However, demand is expected to moderate somewhat. Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $6.90 from $6.70.
Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $1.11
If BAP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.78, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 28.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of -20.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 28.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BAP as Overweight (1) -
Bapcor provided a positive trading update with FY20 net profit expected between $84-88m versus Morgan Stanley’s $75.6m.
The company has indicated future demand may moderate with easing stimulus measures and the broker feels some of the demand spike may be due to pent up demand.
On a positive note, the broker feels there are near term tailwinds in the form of preference for driving, better access to mechanics, rebound in demand for used vehicles and a rise in domestic travel demand.
Morgan Stanley remains Overweight on Bapcor with a target price of $7.20. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $1.41
If BAP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.78, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of -20.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates BAP as Add (1) -
Bapcor's performance has improved significantly as restrictions have eased in Australasia.
While consumer sentiment may be distorted, given the extent of government stimulus in Australia, Morgans expects the automotive aftermarket will prove resilient.
Moreover, Bapcor has not been eligible to tap the JobKeeper payment and this removes an uncertainty in FY20.
The broker maintains an Add rating, forecasting 8% operating earnings growth into FY21. Target is raised to $6.38 from $6.24.
Target price is $6.38 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $0.59
If BAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.78, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of -20.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates BAP as Buy (1) -
The company's trading update has confirmed what UBS suspected. Both trade and retail sales growth accelerated in May and June.
The broker retains forecasts for FY21 net profit to reflect moderating run rates as well as a recovery in specialist wholesale and New Zealand back to pre-pandemic levels.
UBS continues to find the valuation attractive and maintains a Buy rating and $7 target.
Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $1.21
If BAP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.78, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 29.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of -20.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates BHP as Buy (1) -
UBS believes iron ore supply disruptions in 2020 are offsetting reductions in demand caused by the pandemic.
Chinese imports in January to May are up 5%, while Brazilian exports are down -19%, South Africa down -13% and Australian exports up 3%.
The broker believes BHP Group can pay a dividend yield of over 5% in FY21. Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $40 from $38.
Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $35.05 Difference: $4.95
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $38.87, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 187.58 cents and EPS of 281.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 279.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 167.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 229.27 cents and EPS of 333.48 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.5, implying annual growth of -11.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 157.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CCL COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $8.60
Citi rates CCL as Buy (1) -
Coca-Cola Amatil's on-the-go volumes (as opposed to supermarkets) were down -50% in April and a further -40% in early May but have since rebounded 20-50%. The broker now expects a net trend of down -15-25%, better than a prior -35% forecast for June.
Supermarket sales have accelerated from May into June which should also reduce the overall volume decline, the broker notes. Buy and $9.85 target retained.
Target price is $9.85 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: $1.25
If CCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.38, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 46.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.1, implying annual growth of -16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 53.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.5, implying annual growth of 14.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CGF CHALLENGER LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $4.41
Macquarie rates CGF as Neutral (3) -
Challenger has completed a $270m institutional placement.
This will strengthen the balance sheet and be deployed in investment-grade fixed income opportunities.
Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $4.40 from $4.80.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.41 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 49.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of -48.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 39.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.7, implying annual growth of 54.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.99
UBS rates CRN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
While lowering forecasts for coal in line with spot prices, UBS notes prices are now well into the cost curve and further downside is likely to be limited.
Chinese import restrictions are a headwind for thermal coal, but India is emerging from lockdown which should benefit coking coal demand.
Coronado Global is upgraded to Buy from Neutral given its discount to valuation and because of its metallurgical coal exposure. Target is reduced to $1.80 from $2.05.
Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: $0.81
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.03, suggesting upside of 103.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.49 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 124.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $294.00
Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -
CSL has agreed to acquire licence rights for a haemophilia treatment form uniCure for US$450m up front and a further US$1.6bn in milestone payments.
This is a defensive move, the broker suggests, to protect CSL's own treatment. The drug is yet to achieve FDA approval. Buy and $334 target retained.
Target price is $334.00 Current Price is $294.00 Difference: $40
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $311.67, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in May.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 303.71 cents and EPS of 686.77 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 671.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 297.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 361.77 cents and EPS of 821.35 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 743.6, implying annual growth of 10.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 335.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CSL as Outperform (1) -
CSL has entered a licensing agreement to commercialise uniQure's gene therapy treatment for haemophilia B.
The company will pay US$450m up front following regulatory approval and up to US$1.6bn based on regulatory and commercial milestones.
Credit Suisse notes CSL already has a strong market position with Idelvion.
While the deal makes strategic sense, the broker suspects CSL is defending its haemophilia position in the face of added competition.
Outperform rating and $323 target maintained.
Target price is $323.00 Current Price is $294.00 Difference: $29
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $311.67, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in May.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 303.71 cents and EPS of 662.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 671.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 297.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 348.37 cents and EPS of 763.73 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 743.6, implying annual growth of 10.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 335.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Equal-weight (3) -
CSL has obtained exclusive global rights to develop and commercialise uniQure’s gene therapy candidate for Hemophilia B and may pay uniQure more than US$2bn including $450m up-front cash.
uniQure will be managing the completion of the HOPE-B pivotal study and manufacturing while CSL will be handling regulatory submissions and commercialisation.
Morgan Stanley notes the biotech leader's net debt will increase to circa -US$5.3bn. The broker also reports the global Hemophilia B market to be worth around US$1.4bn with CSL’s Idelvion’s share at circa 30%.
Idelvion’s revenue is expected to fall to US$294m by 2025 from US$460m in FY20, on the broker's forecast, but will be offset somewhat by revenue from AMT-061 which is expected to be US$270m by FY25.
The broker notes the gene therapy candidate appears to be the most advanced relative to other programs.
Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating with a target price of $288. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $288.00 Current Price is $294.00 Difference: minus $6 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $311.67, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in May.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 297.31 cents and EPS of 668.45 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 671.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 297.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 346.14 cents and EPS of 777.13 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 743.6, implying annual growth of 10.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 335.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CSL as Hold (3) -
CSL has acquired the global licence from uniQure for a clinical program that should support the viability of its haemophilia B franchise, Ord Minnett notes.
As the agreement still requires regulatory approval it is unlikely to materially affect FY21 results or guidance.
The broker believes the trajectory of US plasma collections will have a greater impact on earnings and investor sentiment.
Hold rating and $300 target retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $300.00 Current Price is $294.00 Difference: $6
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $311.67, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in May.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 710.14 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 671.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 297.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 717.58 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 743.6, implying annual growth of 10.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 335.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -
CSL has acquired the global licensing rights to commercialise the uniQure gene therapy for the treatment of haemophilia B.
A phase 3 trial, with R&D costs funded by CSL, and scale up of manufacturing will be completed before CSL takes responsibility for further manufacturing.
UBS points out, while a commercialised gene therapy product will likely cannibalise Idelvion sales in time, it is unlikely to be used in children under 18 years.
The broker retains a Buy rating and $335 target.
Target price is $335.00 Current Price is $294.00 Difference: $41
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $311.67, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in May.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 314.08 cents and EPS of 684.73 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 671.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 297.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 334.97 cents and EPS of 739.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 743.6, implying annual growth of 10.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 335.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CWY CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers
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Overnight Price: $2.13
Macquarie rates CWY as Outperform (1) -
The disruption to the company's business has been shallower and shorter than Macquarie expected.
Favourable trends in the industry are also continuing to develop.
The broker upgrades estimates by 9% for FY20 and 8% for FY21 to reflect the more resilient market conditions.
Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $2.45 from $2.30.
Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.13 Difference: $0.32
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.80 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of 18.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.90 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of 14.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FNP FREEDOM FOODS GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $3.01
Citi rates FNP as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
A conference call has revealed to Citi that Freedom Foods is in a complete mess, worse than feared. The company needs to divest non-core assets, raise equity, address board composition and governance, and focus on earnings quality and cash conversion, the broker suggests.
Citi will wait for the findings of an investigation before adjusting forecasts but has applied a -40% risk discount to valuation and downgraded to Neutral (High Risk) from Buy. Target falls to $3.27 from $5.30.
Target price is $3.27 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $0.26
If FNP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 36.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 12.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 141.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates FNP as Buy (1) -
Freedom Foods has now provided additional details following the resignation of its CFO and its CEO going on leave.
Additional inventory has been written down to the tune of -$35m bringing total write-downs to -$60m.
Further export bad debts have been included amid a reversal of prior revenue recognition to create an additional negative -$10m impact on operating earnings.
The stock has been placed in voluntary suspension for 14 days while the company investigates its financial position.
The Buy rating and $4.75 target remain under review.
Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $1.74
If FNP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 36.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 141.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.69
Credit Suisse rates IAG as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse observes Insurance Australia Group outperformed the market by 20% in the sell-off in March but has since been left behind.
The underperformance has coincided with uncertainty around business interruption claims, the broker points out.
Still, Credit Suisse increases estimates for FY20 cash earnings by 26% because of the partial recovery in some investment market losses.
Outperform rating and $6.40 target maintained.
Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $0.71
If IAG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.33, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of -50.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 90.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IFL IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $4.72
Credit Suisse rates IFL as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse increases underlying net profit by 7%, given the recovery in equity markets and following a large downgrade after the March quarter.
The company has provided no FY20 guidance and few updates in recent months.
Being in the early stages of integrating a large acquisition, the broker envisages risk around the timing of planned cost savings and synergies.
Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating, given valuation appeal, and raises the target to $5.50 from $4.15.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $0.78
If IFL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.1, implying annual growth of 382.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.0, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.82
Macquarie rates MCR as No Rating (-1) -
Mincor Resources has launched a $60m capital raising through a placement and share purchase plan.
This will enable it to complete debt finance negotiations and move to a final investment decision on the re-start of Kambalda.
Macquarie, on research restrictions, cannot advise of a valuation at present.
Current Price is $0.82. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.90 cents. |
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.26
Credit Suisse rates MGR as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse lowers FY20-22 estimates by -5.7-9.4%. The broker continues to lack much confidence regarding the earnings outlook.
While social distancing restrictions may have eased, economic conditions remain challenging.
The broker aligns the second half distribution with guidance and lowers the FY21 expected pay-out.
Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating. Its positive view is based on the strong capital position and leverage to the urban theme.
Target is reduced to $2.61 from $2.76.
Target price is $2.61 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.35
If MGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of -40.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of -7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $30.63
Citi rates NCM as Buy (1) -
High-grade feed from Telfer satellite Havieron could change the value proposition for Telfer’s low-grade resources, the broker suggests, before going into an extensive geological explanation as to why only an expert would understand.
No resource estimate or feasibility study has been provided yet but the broker retains Buy on the "promise" of value-add from both Havieron and Red Chris. Target unchanged at $35.
Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $30.63 Difference: $4.37
If NCM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.09, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.33 cents and EPS of 129.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.82 cents and EPS of 147.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.4, implying annual growth of 23.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.51
Credit Suisse rates ORE as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Provisional June quarter sales indicate lithium carbonate pricing has fallen to a record low of US$4015/t. Volumes are also weak.
Credit Suisse notes the industry was already in difficulties prior to the pandemic. This is now exacerbated by the disruption to supply chain logistics and end-user demand.
Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is steady at $2.50.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.48 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ORE as Underperform (5) -
Preliminary sales and pricing for the June quarter were below Macquarie's expectations.
The pandemic has hampered supply chain logistics, but the broker suggests global inventory of lithium carbonate is a larger obstacle.
Stimulus from governments may help lift electric vehicle demand, but Macquarie suspects soft pricing is likely to persist.
Underperform rating and $1.80 target maintained.
Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ORE as Equal-weight (3) -
Orocobre highlights weak demand in its provisional June quarter update with prices close to production costs.
Sales were significantly down at 1.6kt versus Morgan Stanley’s expected 2.7kt. The achieved lithium price of US$4015/t was in-line with the broker’s estimate.
The broker expects the lower production to benefit costs in the medium term.
Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating with a target price of $2.40. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 19.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
QAN QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $4.19
Citi rates QAN as Buy (1) -
Qantas' cost restructuring will help limit cash burn and support earnings, the broker notes. The broker is assuming a recovery in domestic capacity in the first half FY21, led by Jetstar in the leisure market.
As for international, it's all just a bit too hard to forecast at this stage so the broker can only do its best. Earnings cut -22% and -30% in FY20-21 to reflect the dilution of the capital raise but target rises to $4.60 from $3.70.
Neutral (High Risk) retained.
Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.19 Difference: $0.41
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates QAN as No Rating (-1) -
Qantas is raising up to $1.86bn in an institutional placement and share purchase plan.
The proceeds will be applied to restructuring the airline to deliver $1bn in ongoing cost benefits from FY23 and to reduce debt.
While management has observed pent-up demand for domestic travel the international recovery is expected to take much longer.
The A380 fleet, which has been written down to fair value, is expected to be idled for the foreseeable future.
Macquarie is on research restrictions and cannot advise of a rating or targeted present.
Current Price is $4.19. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of minus 11.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -
Qantas will be raising $1.86bn to provide liquidity and reduce its cost base. Better liquidity will provide an additional buffer in the short to medium term, comments Morgan Stanley.
The broker assumes FY21 group domestic capacity of 70% rising to 100% by FY22.
FY21 is expected to incur losses with increasing cost savings offset by a reduction in capacity, while FY22 should see a return to profitability. FY22 earnings estimates are increased by circa 30% with further upside potential.
Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating with target price increased to $5.30 from $5.20. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.19 Difference: $1.11
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates QAN as Buy (1) -
Qantas will issue equity of up to $1.9bn to reduce debt and fund a significant restructuring.
While not anticipating the need for additional capital, UBS believes this should remove any concerns investors had about gearing.
Qantas also plans to take out $1bn in costs permanently, which the broker believes will set it up to compete with a second carrier in the Australian market.
UBS adjusts earnings forecasts accordingly and retains a Buy rating, reducing the target to $4.60 from $5.50.
Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.19 Difference: $0.41
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.55
Credit Suisse rates QBE as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse increases FY20 insurance estimates by 78% as investment market losses are partially unwound.
The broker still expects the company will make a loss but less than previously assumed.
Trading at a -40% PE discount to the market on FY21 earnings estimates, Credit Suisse considers the valuation upside compelling.
Outperform rating maintained. Target is $10.15.
Target price is $10.15 Current Price is $8.55 Difference: $1.6
If QBE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.65, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -18.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 71.46 cents and EPS of 75.93 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SCP SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA PROPERTY GROUP
REITs
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Overnight Price: $2.28
Credit Suisse rates SCP as Neutral (3) -
While providing no guidance, the company has announced a second half distribution of 5c, bringing the full year distribution to 12.5c.
Credit Suisse adjusts estimates to reflect the cash impact of rental shortfalls in the second half.
A Neutral rating and $2.21 target are maintained.
Target price is $2.21 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If SCP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of 4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.84
UBS rates SFR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is steady at $6.
The stock has fallen -20% in the year to date because of weaker perceptions of global growth and the impact of the copper price.
UBS assesses the copper price has started to improve and Sandfire Resources is well-placed to benefit.
The company has also added growth projects in the US and Africa that may address concerns about the short mine life at DeGrussa.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.84 Difference: $1.16
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.6, implying annual growth of -34.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.5, implying annual growth of 35.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SYD SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $5.46
Citi rates SYD as Sell (5) -
The news out of Qantas ((QAN)) yesterday only serves to reinforce the broker's Sell rating on Sydney Airport.
No changes to forecasts. Target unchanged at $5.87.
Target price is $5.87 Current Price is $5.46 Difference: $0.41
If SYD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.26, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 96.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.80
Credit Suisse rates TPM as Neutral (3) -
The merger with Vodafone Australia has now been approved by shareholders.
Credit Suisse assumes the special dividend will be $0.50 and values the TPG Singapore in specie distribution at $0.41 per TPG Telecom share.
The dividends of the merged company are expected to remain franked despite the tax losses at Vodafone Australia.
Neutral rating and $7.80 target retained.
Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $8.80 Difference: minus $1 (current price is over target).
If TPM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.09, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 31.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 57.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 29.33 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of -20.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $20.67
Ord Minnett rates WPL as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -
A significant recovery in Brent crude oil since the end of April has made growth projects far more viable, Ord Minnett notes.
The broker now has greater confidence in Woodside Petroleum's balance sheet and options to divest and/or acquire assets.
Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target lifted to $26.50 from $25.50.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $20.67 Difference: $5.83
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.23, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 80.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 46.15 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.6, implying annual growth of 29.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.70
UBS rates WSA as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy and raises the target to $2.85 from $2.50. The share price has lifted 42% in the second quarter.
The broker, noting the share price appreciation in response to an encouraging drilling result, lifts estimates of the value of exploration assets to $150m.
Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.15
If WSA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of 233.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.0, implying annual growth of -24.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
AMP | AMP Ltd | $1.86 | Credit Suisse | 2.05 | 1.50 | 36.67% |
AWC | Alumina | $1.62 | UBS | 2.00 | 2.10 | -4.76% |
AX1 | Accent Group | $1.45 | Citi | 1.55 | 1.53 | 1.31% |
Morgan Stanley | 1.90 | 1.50 | 26.67% | |||
Morgans | 1.70 | 1.45 | 17.24% | |||
BAP | Bapcor Limited | $5.92 | Credit Suisse | 7.20 | 5.70 | 26.32% |
Macquarie | 6.90 | 6.70 | 2.99% | |||
Morgans | 6.38 | 6.24 | 2.24% | |||
BHP | BHP | $36.01 | UBS | 40.00 | 38.00 | 5.26% |
CGF | Challenger | $4.60 | Macquarie | 4.40 | 4.80 | -8.33% |
CRN | Coronado Global Resources | $1.00 | UBS | 1.80 | 2.05 | -12.20% |
CWY | Cleanaway Waste Management | $2.16 | Macquarie | 2.45 | 2.30 | 6.52% |
EVN | Evolution Mining | $5.35 | UBS | 5.00 | 4.90 | 2.04% |
FMG | Fortescue | $14.13 | UBS | 13.60 | 14.50 | -6.21% |
FNP | Freedom Foods | $3.01 | Citi | 3.27 | 5.30 | -38.30% |
IFL | IOOF Holdings | $5.10 | Credit Suisse | 5.50 | 4.15 | 32.53% |
IGO | IGO Co | $4.87 | UBS | 6.20 | 6.00 | 3.33% |
MCR | Mincor Resources | $0.76 | Macquarie | N/A | 0.85 | -100.00% |
MGR | Mirvac | $2.26 | Credit Suisse | 2.61 | 2.76 | -5.43% |
NST | Northern Star | $13.09 | UBS | 13.20 | 14.50 | -8.97% |
OGC | Oceanagold | $3.01 | UBS | 4.30 | 4.00 | 7.50% |
OZL | Oz Minerals | $10.95 | UBS | 12.20 | 11.90 | 2.52% |
QAN | Qantas Airways | $3.86 | Citi | 4.60 | 3.70 | 24.32% |
Macquarie | N/A | 3.60 | -100.00% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 5.30 | 5.20 | 1.92% | |||
UBS | 4.60 | 5.50 | -16.36% | |||
RIO | Rio Tinto | $98.87 | UBS | 101.00 | 97.50 | 3.59% |
RRL | Regis Resources | $5.16 | UBS | 6.00 | 6.30 | -4.76% |
S32 | South32 | $2.00 | UBS | 2.60 | 2.80 | -7.14% |
WHC | Whitehaven Coal | $1.46 | UBS | 2.70 | 3.00 | -10.00% |
WPL | Woodside Petroleum | $21.10 | Ord Minnett | 26.50 | 26.00 | 1.92% |
WSA | Western Areas | $2.71 | UBS | 2.85 | 2.50 | 14.00% |
Summaries
AHY | Asaleo Care | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $1.00 |
AMP | AMP Ltd | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.78 |
AX1 | Accent Group | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $1.49 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.49 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.49 | ||
BAP | Bapcor Limited | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.79 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.79 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.79 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $5.79 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $5.79 | ||
BHP | BHP | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $35.05 |
CCL | Coca-Cola Amatil | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $8.60 |
CGF | Challenger | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.41 |
CRN | Coronado Global Resources | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.99 |
CSL | CSL | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $294.00 |
Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $294.00 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $294.00 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $294.00 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $294.00 | ||
CWY | Cleanaway Waste Management | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.13 |
FNP | Freedom Foods | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.01 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.01 | ||
IAG | Insurance Australia | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.69 |
IFL | IOOF Holdings | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.72 |
MCR | Mincor Resources | No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.82 |
MGR | Mirvac | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.26 |
NCM | Newcrest Mining | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $30.63 |
ORE | Orocobre | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.51 |
Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.51 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.51 | ||
QAN | Qantas Airways | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $4.19 |
No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.19 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.19 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.19 | ||
QBE | QBE Insurance | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.55 |
SCP | Shopping Centres Aus | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.28 |
SFR | Sandfire | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.84 |
SYD | Sydney Airport | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $5.46 |
TPM | TPG Telecom | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.80 |
WPL | Woodside Petroleum | Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $20.67 |
WSA | Western Areas | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.70 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 27 |
3. Hold | 10 |
5. Sell | 2 |
Friday 26 June 2020
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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