Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates 29M as Neutral (3) -

29Metals has further assessed damage at Capricorn Copper after the extreme weather event and has indicated a production restart during the September quarter, which was in line with Macquarie's base case.

Previously the company had indicated the production outage could be “three-to-four months” but it now expects a longer and phased recovery to bring Capricorn back online, noting Mammoth should also begin production in the quarter.

2023 will prove a difficult year, Macquarie suggests, and the full details of the impact to ESS underground and nearby infrastructure won’t be known until the company provides an update in mid-May. Neutral and $1.20 target retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.49, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates 5GG as Speculative Buy (1) -

Pentanet has completed the placement and raised $6.1m with a non-underwritten SPP to raise a further $2.5m. Proceeds will be used to expand on-net coverage over the next 24 months as well as pay the annual 5G spectrum licence.

Bell Potter upwardly adjusts estimates following the company's update. Speculative Buy retained based on a successfully scaled roll-out of the next generation network and cloud gaming services. Target is reduced to $0.16 from $0.30.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.077
If 5GG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AD8 as Buy (1) -

Despite no material news since the first half results, Shaw and Partners asserts market sentiment in the segment is very positive.

Audinate Group has complied with expectations, amid several developments to improve its range of products and services and, if executed, this should provide significant upside in coming years.

The entrenchment of Dante as a global default standard in AV should underpin this outlook and the broker retains a Buy rating and $11.75 target.

Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $8.61 Difference: $3.14
If AD8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.53, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AKE as Buy (1) -

Allkem posted strong quarterly production in March, with production at Olaroz materially outpacing sales volumes as internal sales volumes to Naraha were deferred and spot sales into the Chinese market were withheld. There was a strong recovery at Mount Cattlin.

Bell Potter expects cash generation will lift substantially from 2023 with ongoing strength in lithium demand. Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $19.89 from $18.61.

Target price is $19.89 Current Price is $11.64 Difference: $8.25
If AKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.80, suggesting upside of 34.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AKE as Buy (1) -

March quarter pricing for Allkem was better than Citi expected. Still, inventory at Olaroz continued to build as spot sales to China were withheld in anticipation of better pricing to come. The broker models inventory normalisation into the first half of FY24.

Naraha reported sales of 670,000t of hydroxide while Mount Cattlin production improved. The broker retains a Buy rating and $14.50 target.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $11.64 Difference: $2.86
If AKE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.80, suggesting upside of 34.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AKE as Outperform (1) -

Allkem's March quarter result was mixed, Macquarie notes, with higher-than-expected production offset by lower shipments. June quarter lithium pricing guidance was also mixed, on weaker carbonate pricing meeting spodumene prices largely in line with forecasts.

Target falls to $16.70 from $17.00, Outperform retained. The broker awaits updates on developments at Sal de Vida, Olaroz and James Bay, which present key near-term catalysts.

Target price is $16.70 Current Price is $11.64 Difference: $5.06
If AKE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.80, suggesting upside of 34.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AKE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley still considers Allkem offers the best volume growth at a reasonable price from among its coverage of the Lithium sector.

Production at Olaroz was a quarterly record and was a beat of 17% and 30%, respectively, against forecasts by the broker and consensus. As the analyst had predicted, guidance at Mt Caitlin was downgraded.

Management expects the weighted average price for third party sales of lithium carbonate products will be around US$42,000/t in the 4Q, significantly lower than the broker's US$61,000/t forecast.

The analyst is not overly concerned by this miss as differing contracts having different lags, and which customers are being supplied during a given quarter impacts on prices achieved.

The target rises to $13.80 from $13.75. Overweight. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $11.64 Difference: $2.16
If AKE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.80, suggesting upside of 34.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AKE as Add (1) -

Allkem's 3Q production was broadly as Morgans forecast. Olaroz production beat the broker's expectations by 5%, and consensus by 2%, while Mt Cattlin was largely as expected.

Management lowered guidance for 4Q carbonate prices by -21% to US$42/kt compared to the 3Q and spodumene guidance came down by -12% to US$5k/t.

The broker maintains its Add rating and eases its target to $14.70 from $15.10.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $11.64 Difference: $3.06
If AKE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.80, suggesting upside of 34.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AKE as Buy (1) -

Allkem posted a record quarter of production at Olaroz in March while Naraha start-up was stronger than UBS anticipated as utilisation hit 85% at times.

The broker can understand the rationale for building up the inventory at Olaroz, where several hundred tonnes was available but withheld from the spot market given the current dislocation in the Chinese carbonate market.

The company can afford to be patient, given its cash on hand, UBS assesses. Estimates for FY23-25 are reduced to reflect more conservative realised pricing and a Buy rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $15.20 from $16.30.

Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $11.64 Difference: $3.56
If AKE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.80, suggesting upside of 34.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Aurelia Metals posted quarterly gold production 23% above Macquarie's estimate. FY23 production guidance is maintained, although the miner has already produced 85% of the total.

The next key catalyst is a Federation funding update, expected during the Dec quarter.

Outperform retained, target rises to 23c from 22c.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.07
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AVH as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

As the share price has moved through the trigger level, Ord Minnett upgrades Avita Medical to Accumulate from Hold. Target is steady at $5.60.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: $1.31
If AVH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.22, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Underperform (5) -

Alumina Ltd’s quarterly result was soft, Macquarie notes, featuring lower bauxite production and materially weak cash generation. The company has also lowered 2023 alumina production guidance due to mining approval delays at Huntly.

Despite higher quarter on quarter alumina prices and lower input costs, the company is facing headwinds from Portland smelter production curtailment, lower bauxite grade at Huntly, reduced operating rates at the San Ciprian refinery and unplanned maintenance at Alumar, the broker notes.

Underperform and $1.10 target retained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: minus $0.435 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Despite operational difficulties in the 1Q, as shown by Alcoa's 1Q earnings release, Morgan Stanley suggests pricing remains a highlight and indicates a tight market, which allows positive margins despite ongoing elevated costs.

As a result, the broker retains its Overweight rating and $1.70 target for Alumina Ltd. Industry View: Attractive.

First quarter realised pricing was US$359/t, which compares to the analyst's US$350/t estimate for first half realised pricing.

Alumina production guidance was lowered by management at Alcoa to 10.3Mt from the prior range of 10.5-10.7Mt, as a result of machinery downtime due grade issues.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.165
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -

March was always anticipated to be a tough quarter for Aurizon Holdings, Macquarie notes, given with wet weather, particularly in NSW, along with the Gladstone derailment and Mt Isa storm in Queensland.

NSW coal volumes are the lowest since March 2013 in NSW and June 2017 in Queensland.

However Aurizon's earnings will step-change in FY24 to a high level, the broker suggests, through network repricing and coal recovering. Outperform retained, target rises to $3.95 from $3.94.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $0.54
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Bellevue Gold's quarterly update showed the Bellevue mine is on plan, Macquarie notes, with the plant construction on track and budget while the underground is ahead of schedule. First gold still expected in the second half 2023.

The early open pit development will also yield ore containing some 10koz of gold which could present an opportunity for early cash flows via toll treating well in advance of the process plant completion, the broker suggests.

Outperform and $1.70 target retained.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.34
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOQ as Neutral (3) -

Bank of Queensland's first half result produced costs that surprised to the upside and with this result Citi believes it is moving further away from the long-term aspiration of a return on equity of more than 9.25%, yet notes the target "curiously" was affirmed.

Despite sizeable earnings revisions and a planned rethink on costs, Citi believes the target will remain challenging and ultimately be abandoned. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $6.00 from $6.50.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.54, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOQ as Underperform (5) -

Bank of Queensland delivered solid first half revenue trends underpinned by margin benefits from deposits, but Macquarie understands margins declined linearly in the half after peaking in October.

Along with further asset and deposit competition and impacts in the short term, this implies downside risk to the broker's expectations.

With expenses a further area of disappointment and limited evidence of sustainable cost out in the inflationary environment, Macquarie sees risk of persistent consensus earnings downgrades.

Target falls to $6.15 from $6.50, Underperform retained.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.54, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

At the same time as Bank of Queensland is facing increasing competition and margin headwinds, it is also attempting to strengthen its balance sheet and commitment to risk management, observes Morgan Stanley.

A new productivity initiative and the ongoing transformation program should assist, suggests the analyst, but benefits won't fully emerge until 2025-26.

Following 1H results which were largely pre-released, the broker downgrades its rating to Underweight from Equal-weight and reduces its target to $6.00 from $6.70. Industry view: In-Line.

Management re-affirmed targets for a cost-to-income (CTI) less than 50% and a return on equity (ROE) greater than 9.25% in FY26.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.54, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BOQ as Hold (3) -

As 1H results for Bank of Queensland were largely pre-released, Morgans highlights a higher net interest margin (NIM), which is now trending down and higher costs that are trending up.

The NIM increased by 5bps due to a jump in the first two months of the first half, before a subsequent fall, explains the analyst. Management guidance is for a lower 2H NIM from retention and competition.

The broker suggests FY24 looks difficult for revenue growth. Earnings forecasts are downgraded due to benign asset base growth, forecast NIM declines, rising costs and higher credit impairment expenses.

The target falls to $6.60 from $6.75 and the Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: $0.24
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.54, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOQ as Accumulate (2) -

In the wake of the first half results, which were weaker than expected, Ord Minnett lowers the target to $8.50, incorporating lower margins and 2.5% higher operating expenses for the medium term.

The broker assumes the bank returns to loan growth close to the market at 2.5% per year and net interest margins rise modestly to 1.8% in FY25, when competition eases and ME Bank integration benefits are realised. Accumulate maintained.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: $2.14
If BOQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.54, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOQ as Sell (5) -

Following a weak interim result from Bank of Queensland, UBS remains cautious on the stock despite the fact the shares are seen trading at what looks like trough valuation multiples.

Rising competition for local mortgages in combination with higher funding costs are considered a lethal headwind for the regional lender's Net Interest Margin (NIM) outlook.

Estimates have been further lowered, predominantly on the anticipation of higher costs from operations. Ironically, DPS forecasts have gone up in future years.

UBS maintains a Sell rating with a $6 target, unchanged.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.54, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Brambles has upgraded guidance. Guidance implies accelerating revenue growth in the second half with full year sales expectations now up 14-15%. Citi believes Brambles is in a "sweet spot" as prices are elevated and cash flow is benefiting from the decrease in pallet costs.

Moreover, the market is constrained and declines in like-for-like sales are being offset by new business. As there is no evidence the situation is changing in the short term the broker retains a Buy rating, awaiting any major reversal in prices or industry volumes. Target is raised to $15.65 from $14.55.

Target price is $15.65 Current Price is $13.91 Difference: $1.74
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BXB as Equal-weight (3) -

Third quarter results for Brambles shows growth was broad based, notes Morgan Stanley, with around 15% constant currency sales revenue growth in each of the Americas and EMEA and 10% in Asia-Pacific.

Management now expects FY23 sales revenue growth of between 14%-15% compared to prior expectations of 12-14%. Similarly, underlying profit guidance was raised to 17%-19% from 15-18%.

Largely representing cost recovery, the analyst highlights strong price realisation in the quarter with 19% price growth in the Americas and 12% in EMEA. 

Morgan Stanley raises its target to $14.40 from $13.00 and retains its Equal-weight rating, as risks are considered finely balanced. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $13.91 Difference: $0.49
If BXB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BXB as Hold (3) -

Third quarter year-to-date sales growth (constant currency) for Brambles was a 13% beat against Morgans forecast, a reflection of ongoing price rises to recover higher costs in all regions. Group volumes were broadly in line with the previous corresponding period.

Management upgraded FY23 guidance for sales growth, underlying earnings (EBIT) growth and free cash flow, due to ongoing price strength and lower than previously expected pallet returns.

After also allowing for new currency assumptions, the analyst increases the FY23-25 underlying earnings forecast by 2%.

The target rises to $14.17 from $13.70. Hold.

Target price is $14.17 Current Price is $13.91 Difference: $0.26
If BXB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BXB as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes continued momentum in sales in the third quarter with constant currency sales growth of 17%.

The broker notes its EBIT forecast of US$1.085bn has already captured the implied sales growth and operating leverage from Brambles' revised guidance for underlying profit growth of 17-19%.

With a focus on FY24 Ord Minnett is optimistic regarding the resilience of short-term operating margins and envisages opportunities for expansion. Hold maintained. Target is $14.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $13.91 Difference: $0.09
If BXB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Brambles' quarterly market updated included an improved outlook for free cash flow (now guided toward positive) and UBS analysts consider this the first positive step in a new turn-around trend for the company.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $15.90 from $15.50.

The broker sees more upside as consensus is cum upgrades on the back of the last guidance, plus the shares are still trading at a relative discount and pallet industry dynamics are expected to normalise in the years ahead.

Target price is $15.90 Current Price is $13.91 Difference: $1.99
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Sell (5) -

Challenger has reaffirmed guidance of $485-535m for normalised pre-tax profit in FY23. Following disappointing book growth in the third quarter Citi now reduces estimates to $510m, the midpoint of the range.

The broker acknowledges new business is starting to improve but believes the exposure to commercial and corporate credit remains unattractive. Despite the stock now trading close to valuation a Sell rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $5.90 from $7.30.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.10, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGF as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Following a 3Q annuity sales and asset under management (AUM) update, Morgans lowers its FY23 and FY24 EPS estimates by -1% and -4%. This change allows for lower sales and Life book growth estimates, which offsets the broker's higher margin expectations.

The analyst reminds investors that while Challenger's results appear soft, they should be viewed through the prism of the company actively skewing its Life book away from institutional annuities to more profitable retail sales.

Morgans upgrades its rating to Add from Hold after a -15% share price decline since the start of 2023, and lowers its target to $7.52 from $8.24.

Target price is $7.52 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: $1.27
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.10, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett was generally encouraged by the third quarter results, making "inconsequential" adjustments to its estimates.

Annuity growth was supported by rising rates and an increasing proportion of group sales from retail and lifetime annuities illustrates the success of Challenger's growing product distribution, comments the analyst.

The broker projects growth in earnings per share in the mid teens over the next five years, off a relatively low base in FY22. Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and $7.90 target.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: $1.65
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.10, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

Challenger's quarterly market update failed to meet UBS's expectations. Forecasts have been lowered.

Overall, the broker comments, it appears the March quarter has been generally supportive for selling retail annuities but more challenging (pardon the pun) for sourcing funds management flows, revealing ongoing net outflows

Challenger is cleaning up its partnerships which has had a large impact in the quarter, the analyst explains.

The broker retains its Neutral rating while lowering its price target to $6.80 (was $7.50). UBS still thinks Challenger has a 3-year EPS CAGR outlook of 14%pa, which implies the shares are not looking expensive at current level.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: $0.55
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.10, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CMM as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

A maiden ore reserve estimate and pre-feasibility study have been released for the Mount Gibson gold project. Bell Potter believes the update represents a major milestone and de-risking event for the project.

Capricorn Metals' gold reserves have increased to 2.8m ounces, supporting a 10-year outlook for production of around 270,000 ozpa.

The broker believes the parameters of the pre-feasibility study align well with prior assumptions and there is a robust production scenario. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy on recent share price appreciation and the target is raised to $4.89 from $4.67.

Target price is $4.89 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.55
If CMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Neutral (3) -

Capricorn Metals' pre-feasibility study for Mt Gibson was mixed, featuring higher pre-production capital costs and sustaining costs compared to Macquarie's estimates, largely offset by higher production.

First gold is now due a year later than the broker had expected, with government approvals expected to take upwards of one year. The timing of approvals for Mt Gibson is important, the broker points out.

Neutral retained, target falls to $4.80 from $4.90.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.46
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Sell (5) -

Evolution Mining has provided a softer outlook for Red Lake. The goal of 200,000 ozpa is retained but Citi notes the timing is unclear with the next year's target now 160-180,000oz.

Citi retains a Sell rating in the absence of conviction on Red Lake and capital expenditure. On the positive side, Cowal and Mungari have outperformed and beat cost estimates. The underground ramp up is "going well" at Cowal, Citi adds. Target is reduced to $3.00 from $3.10.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Evolution Mining had pre-released most key March quarter metrics so no surprises in the report. The company has softened its expectations for Red Lake in FY24, Macquarie notes, while adding commentary that the asset needs to deliver before a mill expansion.

Importantly, production at Ernest Henry has resumed within the planned timeframe with the company expecting full production rates by the end of the June quarter, while underground stoping at Cowal has commenced ahead of schedule.

The broker nonetheless retains Underperform on a $3.00 target.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -

Costs for Evolution Mining in the 3Q were beats of 12% and 16%, respectively, against Morgan Stanley's forecasts for C1 and AISC, despite disruptions at Ernest Henry.

While FY23 guidance appears achievable, the broker highlight Evolution moves to a strong free cash flow positive position in FY24 with a fully unhedged gold position.

The target rises to $3.75 from $3.60 and the Overweight rating is unchanged. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.26
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Lighten (4) -

March quarter results revealed delays at Red Lake, which meant Evolution Mining has reduced FY24 production guidance by -15%. Incorporating the results means Ord Minnett makes downward revisions of around -11% to earnings estimates for FY23.

Among the positives, a better realised price at Ernest Henry offset slightly weaker cost performance at Cowal. Ord Minnett reduces the target to $2.55 from $2.60 and retains a Lighten rating.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: minus $0.94 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

Evolutiion Mining has confiirmed FY24 guidance for Red Lake of 160-180,000 ounces with UBS noting the prior 200,000oz target is now delayed until FY25. Mining at Ernest Henry has resumed after six weeks of downtime.

The broker believes the market will look through the current year, anticipating a strong return to around 10% free cash flow in FY24. Sell rating maintained. Target rises to $3.25 from $3.15.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GEM as Neutral (3) -

G8 Education's March quarter earnings and occupancy recovered from an omicron and flood-impacted March quarter last year. Group occupancy nevertheless still lags pre-covid levels, Macquarie notes.

The problem is insufficient staffing in some centres and underperforming centres are the drivers. The broker remains cautious given sector headwinds such as staffing inhibiting the ability to close the occupancy gap to pre-covid.

Neutral retained, target rises to $1.18 from $1.12.

Target price is $1.18 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: minus $0.085 (current price is over target).
If GEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Essential Metals ((ESS)) shareholders have voted to reject IGO and Tianqi’s 50c/share $134m cash takeover offer at the Scheme Meeting. Mineral Resources ((MIN)) recently acquired a 19.55% stake in Essential Metals, which appears to have acted as a blocking stake, Macquarie notes.

The failure to complete the takeover is disappointing, and the broker awaits the Tianqi/IGO JV's response with interest.

Outperform and $19.00 target retained.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $13.89 Difference: $5.11
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.93, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

March quarter production and sales missed Citi's estimates. Earnings estimates for 2023-24 are lifted based on higher basket prices. The broker also expects Iluka Resources will expand production and sales later in the year, given a seasonally slow first quarter.

Neutral retained. Target is raised to $11.70 from $11.50.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $11.55 Difference: $0.15
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.28, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Iluka Resources reported a heavy metal concentrate inventory build-up at Cataby and a group zircon and synthetic rutile build-up in the March quarter, which is likely to unwind over 2023, Macquarie notes.

The miner has numerous catalysts and growth paths, the broker suggests, including Eneabba phase 3 which is progressing and the Balranald, which had now achieved final investment decision.

The production result was softer than expected, with production and sales weaker than forecasts and down materially quarter on quarter, although March is seasonally soft and the broker expects a recovery through the year.

Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform on valuation. Target falls to $12.00 from $12.30.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $11.55 Difference: $0.45
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.28, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley saw Iluka Resources' quarterly numbers missing its own forecasts by quite a wide margin with both sales and production volumes disappointing.

The broker doesn't appear too uncomfortable about it, instead highlighting management has flagged higher pricing for zircon in Q2 on the back of predicted improving conditions for both zircon and rutile markets.

Equal-weight rating retained, but the target shrinks to $9.50 from $10.35 on adjustments post what has proved a weak start to the year. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $11.55 Difference: minus $2.05 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.28, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Production in the March quarter was below expectations yet UBS is confident Iluka Resources will make it up in subsequent quarters and be on track for 2023 production guidance of 660,000t.

As an explanation for the softness, the company has signalled out cautious activity from zircon purchasers as well as weak pigment demand in Europe and North America, while a 20,000t synthetic rutiile sale has slipped into the next quarter.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and reducess the target to $11.95 from $12.00.

Target price is $11.95 Current Price is $11.55 Difference: $0.4
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.28, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IRE as Neutral (3) -

Iress announced a cost efficiency program at its investor day to deliver $32m of annualised savings. This will be driven by a -10% headcount reduction by 30 June with the cost-out benefit to be split 50/50 between FY23 and FY24, Macquarie notes.

$28m in one-off restructuring and transformation costs are expected to be incurred to achieve these savings. Management expects additional efficiencies to be gained through the new organisational structure in due course.

Iress also informed of another BAU downgrade plus additional one-off investment costs. The broker likes the organisational realignment, but is cautious on the near term earnings outlook.

Target rises to $10.10 from $9.30, Neutral retained.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $10.01 Difference: $0.09
If IRE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.10, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IRE as Hold (3) -

Management at Iress has announced a new strategy which includes refocusing on core businesses and managing non-
strategic businesses for value, including potential for divestments. Morgans notes UK Wealth is the major underperformer.

Initial action will incorporate a -10% workforce reduction, new leadership and management structures, as well as accelerating short-term project spend, explains the broker. A write-down in UK goodwill of around -$123m will also be incurred.

The analyst suggests restructuring capital requirements will see the DPS payout reset in FY23. Management "reaffirmed" guidance on a post-cost out basis.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target rises to $10.30 from $9.20.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $10.01 Difference: $0.29
If IRE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.10, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNK as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi considers the share price reaction to the sale of LFS to Waystone and settlement with the FCA has been unnecessarily muted. The broker now believes there are attractions in the stock.

While some investors may wish for evidence of execution and further clarity over stranded costs, the broker believes there is a good chance Link Administration will gain ground over the  next year.

The company will receive TSA revenue for a year after the deals are completed which should provide the time to remove most stranded costs. Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral and raises the target to $2.45 from $2.20.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $0.31
If LNK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Outperform (1) -

Paladin Energy is on track and on budget for a Langer Heinrich restart in the March quarter 2024, Macquarie notes, with the project now 40% complete. Paladin has signed offtake contracts with five key customers.

The project is fully funded.

Outperform and $1.00 target retained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.37
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.10, suggesting upside of 76.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Paladin Energy has progressed the re-start of Langer Heinrich, with the operation now 40% complete and on budget.

Shaw and Partners observes the business continues to build a strong book of uranium sales contracts with US and European utilitites and has negotiated additional offtakes with China's CNNC.

The broker assesses the stock is the premium and most liquid name in the sector and the preferred exposure to an improving uranium market. The Buy rating and target price of $1.30 are retained. 

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.67
If PDN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 106% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.10, suggesting upside of 76.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLL as Outperform (1) -

A definitive feasibility study for Piedmont Lithium's Tennessee Hydroxide Refinery has confirmed 35% higher pre-production capex but -55% lower conversion costs than Macquarie's estimates.

The ramp-up of Sayona Quebec and resultant cash flow generation from its favourable offtake agreement present a key near-term catalyst.

The broker has adjusted estimates following the DFS and lifts its target to $2.00 from $1.85. Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $1.16
If PLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 138% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPT as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

As the share price of Perpetual has moved through the trigger, Ord Minnett downgrades to Accumulate from Buy. Target is steady at $33.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $24.14 Difference: $8.86
If PPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.25, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RBL as Hold (3) -

While market conditions are expected to remain subdued in the near-term for Redbubble, Morgans notes the gross profit after paid acquisition (GPAPA) margin improved by 140bps in the 3Q on the previous corresponding period to 22.9%.

This improvement resulted from adjustments by management to paid marketing activities and promotional spend, explains the analyst.

Overall, the broker observes an ongoing challenging operating environment in the quarter, particularly across the company's North
American market.

The Hold rating is maintained and the target eases to 66c from 68c.

Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.28
If RBL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting upside of 54.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

March quarter production was in keeping with Citi's shipment forecasts for the Pilbara while lower mined copper production reflected and outage at Kennecott and geotechnical challenges at Escondida.

The broker increases iron ore and minerals earnings estimates for 2023 which is slightly offset by higher copper costs and lower copper volumes. Guidance from Rio Tinto has been maintained with the exception of mined copper production, lowered to 590-640,000t in 2023.

The Neutral rating and target price of $120.00 are retained.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $120.33 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $113.07, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto’s March quarter result was mixed with a record iron ore shipment result offsetting weaker output of copper, bauxite, and titanium dioxide, Macquarie notes.

The broker has lifted its 2023 Pilbara iron ore shipment forecast by 2% to the upper end of the guidance range but cut copper and bauxite output.

Rio’s upgrade momentum has stalled, Macquarie notes, with a spot price scenario generating earnings for 2023 in line with forecasts.

Neutral retained, target falls to $122 from $123.

Target price is $122.00 Current Price is $120.33 Difference: $1.67
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $113.07, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Hold (3) -

The only real surprise for Morgans to come out of Rio Tinto's 1Q operational report was a reduction to FY23 mined copper guidance following underperformance at Kennecott and geotechnical issues at Escondida.

Pilbara iron ore production was in line with the broker's forecast.

Focusing on the bigger picture, the analyst sees exciting growth options, but all appear long dated. As a result, it's felt further strategic acquisitions needs to be on the agenda.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target eases to $116 from $117.

Target price is $116.00 Current Price is $120.33 Difference: minus $4.33 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $113.07, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Sell (5) -

UBS's Sell rating is premised on the forecast that iron ore pricing will deteriorate and that Rio Tinto's share price will follow the trend. Yesterday's quarterly update has not changed the broker's mind.

All in all, Pilbara iron ore operations continue to perform strongly, but copper disappointed while no new insights were provided on key projects Oyu Tolgoi and Simandou, the broker comments.

On current pricing for iron ore, UBS estimates yield on the shares might be as high as 11%, but with iron ore projected to fall below US$100/tonne and potentially back to US$87/t, the broker suggests the 'real' yield is no higher than 5%.

Target unchanged at $95. Estimates have been lowered. Sell.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $120.33 Difference: minus $25.33 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $113.07, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett updates forecasts to reflect a significant deterioration in trading conditions. Much of the downgrade is from a soft performance in Queensland. Rising cost of living pressures are now weighing on domestic activity in both Queensland casinos.

Meanwhile, the issues at The Star Sydney are yet to abate, amid an increase in the number of excluded patrons and a reduced level of complementary services in private gaming areas.  Competition is also proving intense.

The broker reduces the target to $1.80 from $1.90 and maintains an Accumulate rating.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.52
If SGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.68, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Santos posted a solid March quarter overall, featuring stronger LNG price realisations than Macquarie's estimate.

Santos shares remain heavily discounted in the broker's view due to the lack of delivery on asset sell-downs (so far) and the challenges it still faces from climate activists (Barossa) and Albanese government's regulations.

Investors should earn a return as these issues are cleared one by one, the broker suggests, on an absolute basis and particularly compared to Woodside Energy ((WDS)).

Target rises to $9.95 from $9.90, Outperform retained.

Target price is $9.95 Current Price is $7.09 Difference: $2.86
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.32, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Add (1) -

Santos reported 1Q FY23 production and revenue in line with consensus estimates. Cooper Basin, GLNG and PNG LNG were in line, while WA Gas underperformed as the John Brookes Pipeline was offline until early February.

The broker suggests Santos is trading at a discount to value as several external factors are holding the company back including government intervention, Barossa approvals and settlement of PNG LNG sell down.

The Add rating is retained and the target climbs to $8.75 from $8.60.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $7.09 Difference: $1.66
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.32, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -

Santos reported a -13% decline in March quarter production, which reflected the expected end-of-life for the Bayu-Undan field. Still, the fact the field is still producing at all is better than Ord Minnett had anticipated, with volumes now likely to cease around mid 2023.

Production guidance for 2023 is unchanged at 89-96 mmboe. The broker also notes east coast domestic gas prices jumped 17%, favourably supported by third-party gas trading activity undertaken prior to the  implementation of the government's emergency price order.

The Buy rating and target price of $12.00 are retained.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $7.09 Difference: $4.91
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.32, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

Santos' quarterly update has met UBS's expectations on both sales and production volumes, though the broker suggests volumes from GLNG missed market consensus.

There are multiple moving impacts on the broker's assessment of Santos as an investment. It is estimated changes to the government's Safeguard Mechanism might potentially cost the company -$40m per annum through the Barossa project.

Buy. Target $8.20. Small changes only have been made to forecasts.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.09 Difference: $1.11
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.32, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TSK as Buy (1) -

TASK Group has upgraded FY23 EBITDA guidance to NZ$12m, a 33% increase against Ord Minnett's prior forecasts.

The broker believes the improved performance relates to growth in hardware sales and recent customer gains within the business, as well as a full second half contribution from amended terms with key customer McDonald's.

The broker envisages customer growth will continue  and the company is in a strong position to reinvest in product and geographic expansion. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $0.59 from $0.58.

Target price is $0.59 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.22
If TSK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ZIP as Underperform (5) -

Zip Co's group revenue and cash gross profit are 49% and 48% of Macquarie's second half forecasts respectively, so in line with expectations. However Zip US is seeing the impact of tighter risk settings post-SVB.

Zip's A&NZ bad and doubtful debts are showing signs of stress, and while the company is approaching cash earnings breakeven, balance sheet questions remain, the broker warns.

Macquarie does not see the need for a capital raise in the near term, but there remains a concern with the last of $330m of convertible notes due in April 2025 the main overhang. Underperform and 50c target retained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.82, suggesting upside of 57.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ZIP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes growth was "reasonable" in the March quarter and Zip Co continues to advance towards profitability. Revenue growth of 15% in the quarter was driven by 10% growth in total transaction value.

As a result, cash transaction margins for the core business reached 2.8%. The broker agrees with the company's guidance for cash EBITDA profitability in the first half of FY24 and maintains a Hold rating. Target is steady at $0.65.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.12
If ZIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.82, suggesting upside of 57.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources