Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 360 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley raises its target for Life360 to $11.50 from $10.50 and maintains its Overweight rating after raising its EPS forecasts by between 14-99% and lifting its long-term US pricing assumption. Higher prices are expected to lead to greater gross margins.

The US could support a materially higher average revenue per paying circle (ARPPC), in the broker's opinion. Management successfully raised prices in 2022. A similar strategy is now expected as membership is rolled-out in the UK and Australia.  Industry view: In Line.

Upcoming share price catalysts, in the analysts' opinion include the November, 15 3Q results and the UK Membership launch.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $8.15 Difference: $3.35
If 360 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

Citi returned from Bapcor's AGM earlier today, disappointed by the trading update provided. Upon first reflection, the broker believes trends across key segments for the business are deteriorating.

Citi prefers to remain cautious, now also anticipating consensus forecasts will be cut post AGM.

While the operations in Australia are battling margin pressure, in New Zealand a solid recovery seems to be taking place. Citi points out management was talking about NZ stabilising in August.

Target $7. Neutral

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.68 Difference: $0.32
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Following updates to its commodity forecasts, Ord Minnett sees opportunities within its coverage of the ASX-listed Resources sector among gold and thermal coal companies in particular.

After many years of miners focusing upon returning excess cash to shareholders, the broker notes a pivot towards growth, as evidenced by recent M&A activity in the Gold and Lithium sectors.

Ord Minnett's commodity price forecasts are mixed with higher near-term iron ore prices and lower near-term thermal coal prices. Across the broker's coverage, Whitehaven Coal and mineral sands miner Iluka Resources are thought to represent the best value.

Higher iron ore and metallurgical coal prices drive increased valuations for exposed companies, while Ord Minnett's forecasts for copper fall.

For BHP Group, the target rises to $41 from $39.50. Buy.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $45.18 Difference: minus $4.18 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.82, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COG as Buy (1) -

The September quarter for COG Financial Services was strong, assesses Ord Minnett, due to a better-than-expected performance for the three novated leasing brands.

Novated leasing and vehicle management contributed 34% to 1Q group profit, prior to corporate/other overheads.

There was margin compression within the $209m of on-balance sheet loans within Westlawn Finance, which the Novated performance helped offset, explain the analysts. It's felt net interest margins will contract to circa 5% during FY24.

The target falls to $1.88 from $1.89 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $1.88 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $0.55
If COG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Takeaways from CSL's capital markets/research and development day were consistent with expectations, says Citi, and the company remains confident in medium-term double-digit earnings growth, with Citi assuming a 14-15% compound annual growth rate between FY23-28. 

The company will continue to chase pre-pandemic gross margins in 3-5 years from CSL Behring. Citi notes the biggest driver of gross margin recovery, cost per litre efficiencies, looks to be realised over the next four years.

The Buy rating and target price of $325.00 are retained.

Target price is $325.00 Current Price is $239.90 Difference: $85.1
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.70, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

Reporting back from yesterday's investor presentations, CSL remains positive on its growth outlook, reiterating expectations of double digit earnings growth in the medium-term. 

Macquarie expects this will be supported by growth from key products with market leading positions, as well as delivery on the research and development program.

The broker also sees recent concern around GLP-1 RA risks in relation to Novo Nordisk's Flow study as being overplayed, particularly noting less than 10% of CKD patients would meet the criteria for enrolment in the study. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $321.00 are retained.

Target price is $321.00 Current Price is $239.90 Difference: $81.1
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.70, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley determined from the inaugural Capital Markets Day that CSL is set for double-digit earnings growth with long-term
Behring margins now "beyond" pre-pandemic levels.

The automated plasma technology RIKA is currently in 15 centers, and a 10% yield improvement is expected to follow. The broker notes the timeline for the final roll-out of RIKA should be conveyed by management by the end of this year.

The current immunoglobulin yield is tracking around 5% ahead of FY19, with circa 8-13% likely within 3-5 years and around 16-27% by 2030, note the analysts.

The Overweight rating and $334 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $334.00 Current Price is $239.90 Difference: $94.1
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.70, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CSL as Add (1) -

At the inaugural Capital Markets Day, CSL reiterated FY24 guidance and is aiming for annual double-digit earnings growth over the medium-term, highlights Morgans.

Management also pointed to capex declining by -30%, operating efficiency improving, along with declining balance sheet leverage and a "steadily improving" return on invested capital (ROIC) over time.

The broker's Add rating and $328.20 target are retained. Strong growth is expected given management's efforts to right-size costs, along with ongoing demand across both Behring and Seqirus, and from the additional diversification provided by Vifor.

Target price is $328.20 Current Price is $239.90 Difference: $88.3
If CSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.70, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Accumulate (2) -

There was nothing that greatly surprised Ord Minnett at CSL's Capital Markets Day. Management reiterated FY24 guidance, implying to the broker 13-17% constant currency growth compared to FY23.

This guidance incorporates a gross margin recovery for CSL Behring and constant currency group revenue growth of between 9-11%, largely driven by immunoglobulin (Ig), explains the analyst.

Ord Minnett expects margins at CSL Behring will expand as higher-cost inventory is cycled and as management is targeting a 20% lift in manufacturing yield by FY30.

The broker suggests CSL shares are undervalued. The $330 target and Accumulate rating are unchanged.

Target price is $330.00 Current Price is $239.90 Difference: $90.1
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.70, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Mangement at CSL assesses the impact of glucagon-like peptide 1's (GLP-1s) on Vifor's dialysis drugs portfolio will not be material.

UBS also notes any potential impact is beyond usual pharma time horizons given patients can spend over ten years with stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD) before dialysis.

The broker notes no major numerical surprises from the company's Capital Markets Day, but noted CSL is contemplating exploring immunisations against other respiratory viruses, beyond its existing flu and emerging covid businesses.

The Buy rating and $340 target are retained. 

Target price is $340.00 Current Price is $239.90 Difference: $100.1
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.70, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DRR as Lighten (4) -

Following updates to its commodity pricing forecasts, Ord Minnett sees opportunities within its coverage of the ASX-listed Resources sector among gold and thermal coal companies in particular.

After many years of miners focusing upon returning excess cash to shareholders, the broker notes a pivot towards growth, as evidenced by recent M&A activity in the Gold and Lithium sectors.

Ord Minnett's commodity price forecasts are mixed with higher near-term iron ore prices and lower near-term thermal coal prices. Across the broker's coverage, Whitehaven Coal and mineral sands miner Iluka Resources are thought to represent the best value.

Higher iron ore and metallurgical coal prices drive increased valuations for exposed companies, while Ord Minnett's forecasts for copper fall.

For Deterra Royalties, the broker's target rises to $4.20 from $3.90 and the Lighten rating is unchanged.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.94 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.80, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates DSE as Buy (1) -

Following a third quarter business update from Dropsuite, the stock remains a key growth software pick for Shaw and Partners. Excluding the deactivation of a legacy partner, user growth accelerated in the quarter by 9%, up from 8% in the previous quarter. 

Shaw and Partners warns of a short-term headwind with the remaining users from this legacy partner to be deactivated in the fourth quarter, but still expects full year annual recurring revenue forecast is achievable. 

The Buy rating and target price of 35 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.115
If DSE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Morgans raises its target prices for gold companies under its coverage after raising its long-term gold price forecast by 8% to US$1,560/oz. The gold price is expected to remain elevated for the forecast period, primarily driven by central bank demand and physical buying.

In the interim forecast period, the broker adjusts its gold price estimates for FY24, FY25 and FY27 by -1%, 12% and 23%, respectively. It's thought potential rate cuts in 2024 and a weaker US dollar will see a material uplift in gold prices.

Evolution Mining is a low-cost producer, in Morgans view, and less leveraged to gold price movements than the likes of Red 5 and Regis Resources. The Hold rating is retained as the share price is close to the broker's target, which rises to $3.40 from $3.20.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FBU as Buy (1) -

Conservative estimates from Citi assume Fletcher Building's balance sheet wouldn't come too far under pressure from pipe burst reparations. The broker considers a full re-piping of impacted homes unlikely, and assumes bursts will be repaired as they occur. 

Based on this scenario, Citi assumes outflows will total less than -$50m per annum for five years. This compares to BGC's estimate of $700m to re-pipe all BGC homes, which exptrapolated Australia-wide totals -$1.8bn. 

The Buy rating and target price of NZ$5.70 are retained.

Current Price is $4.07. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FBU as Equal-weight (3) -

Fletcher Building believes pipe leaking issues are due to faulty installation in WA. Morgan Stanley feels this may change the market narrative away from the size of the liability for the company (due to a faulty product) towards questioning whether a liability exists at all.

Moreover, based on the number of repairs, management's sum for costs is substantially lower than the claimant's (BGC) dollar estimate, points out the broker.

Morgan Stanley's Equal-weight rating and $5.09 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.09 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $1.02
If FBU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie sees the production ramp up at Fortescue Metals' Iron Bridge asset remains a focal point for the coming 24 months, with contribution from the site able to improve Fortescue Metals' overall product portfolio quality according to the broker. 

The broker highlighst Iron Bridge may be the last major growth investment in the Pilbara in the short- to medium-term as the supply chain bottleneck shifts to the port. 

The Underperform rating and target price of $16.60 are retained.

Target price is $16.60 Current Price is $21.54 Difference: minus $4.94 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.65, suggesting downside of -19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Lighten (4) -

Following updates to its commodity forecasts, Ord Minnett sees opportunities within its coverage of the ASX-listed Resources sector among gold and thermal coal companies in particular.

After many years of miners focusing upon returning excess cash to shareholders, the broker notes a pivot towards growth, as evidenced by recent M&A activity in the Gold and Lithium sectors.

Ord Minnett's commodity price forecasts are mixed with higher near-term iron ore prices and lower near-term thermal coal prices. Across the broker's coverage, Whitehaven Coal and mineral sands miner Iluka Resources are thought to represent the best value.

Higher iron ore and metallurgical coal prices drive increased valuations for exposed companies, while Ord Minnett's forecasts for copper fall.

For Fortescue Metals, the broker's target rises to $16 from $15. Lighten.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $21.54 Difference: minus $5.54 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.65, suggesting downside of -19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Fortescue Metals' Iron Bridge site tour gave UBS insight into the high capital intensity magnetite iron ore supply chain. While it's felt the highest risk is at the concentrate plant, commissioning so far has performed very well.

The broker factors into its long-term forecasts an "Iron Bridge premium", which is currently US$6/t on top of grade adjustment, and is expected to remain supported or lift further by projected pellet feed deficits.

The broker was also impressed by success to-date, evident on a tour of the Green Energy Hub at Christmas Creek, around zero carbon heavy mobile equipment (HME).

The target rises to $20.80 from $20.20. Neutral.

Target price is $20.80 Current Price is $21.54 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.65, suggesting downside of -19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GLN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has identified Galan Lithium as trading cum-share price catalyst which should arrive once the company announces offtake contract(s) and an update on funding.

Exploration results may well act as a positive catalyst for the shares too, the broker adds.

While the company's update on Phase 2 DFS for Hombre Muerto has slightly disappointed the analyst, Macquarie maintains the shares look attractive, with funding critical to transition to production expansion.

In the immediate, EPS estimates have been cut by -9-56% for FY25-FY27 (larger losses). Target unchanged at $1.40. Outperform.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.71
If GLN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 103% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Earlier today Hub24 released Q1 financial metrics which included a delay to funds migrating through its agreement with Equity Trustees.

To account for this delay, Citi has, upon initial reflections, reduced its forecasts. Hub24 is also hiring more staff, or so it appears, which leads to further downward amendments.

Ongoing share price gains should ensure continued strong growth, acclaims the broker, hence the Buy rating remains in place. Target $35.60.

Target price is $35.60 Current Price is $33.12 Difference: $2.48
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett  forecasts Insurance Australia Group will roughly double its EPS in FY24. However, a more profitable insurance industry is expected to lead to less aggressive price hikes by participants.

The broker feels earnings tailwinds, the risk of claims inflation and the impact on profit of larger-than-expected natural hazards are already incorporated into Insurance Australia Group's share price. 

The Hold rating and $5.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.68 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.85, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Accumulate (2) -

Following updates to its commodity forecasts, Ord Minnett sees opportunities within its coverage of the ASX-listed Resources sector among gold and thermal coal companies in particular.

After many years of miners focusing upon returning excess cash to shareholders, the broker notes a pivot towards growth, as evidenced by recent M&A activity in the Gold and Lithium sectors.

Ord Minnett's commodity price forecasts are mixed with higher near-term iron ore prices and lower near-term thermal coal prices. Across the broker's coverage, Whitehaven Coal and mineral sands miner Iluka Resources are thought to represent the best value.

Higher iron ore and metallurgical coal prices drive increased valuations for exposed companies, while Ord Minnett's forecasts for copper fall.

The $10.50 target and Accumulate rating for Iluka Resources are unchanged.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $3.07
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.75, suggesting upside of 31.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates INA as Buy (1) -

Ingenia Communities has acquired the 10.25% stake of its company owned by its previous largest shareholder and joint venture partner, Sun Communities. According to Citi, the purchase was reportedly made at $3.90 per share and at a -7% discount to the closing price.

With Citi feeling longer-term fundamentals remain intact, expecting Ingenia Communities can benefit from strong prospects for the Australian land lease industry as the industry leader, the broker considers the decline a good entry point. 

The Buy rating and target price of $4.80 are retained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.9
If INA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.54, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates JAN as Buy (1) -

A first quarter update from Janison Education demonstrated a strong Solutions result, with a strong pipeline of deals expected to be announced in the second half. The period also saw the CEO succession announced and a strong field of candidates identified. 

Shaw and Partners expects a CEO appointment in the near term. The broker expects the softer first quarter, lack of guidance and CEO uncertainty to weigh on sentiment short-term, but  feels medium-term earnings potential continues to be undervalued by the market. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to 70 cents from 80 cents. 

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.315
If JAN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NCM as Hold (3) -

Morgans raises its target prices for gold companies under its coverage after raising its long-term gold price forecast by 8% to US$1,560/oz. The gold price is expected to remain elevated for the forecast period, primarily driven by central bank demand and physical buying.

In the interim forecast period, the broker adjusts its gold price estimates for FY24, FY25 and FY27 by -1%, 12% and 23%, respectively. It's thought potential rate cuts in 2024 and a weaker US dollar will see a material uplift in gold prices.

Newcrest Mining is a low-cost producer, in Morgans view, and less leveraged to gold price movements than the likes of Red 5 and Regis Resources. The Hold rating is retained and the target rises to $27.17 from $25.20.

The broker sees limited share price upside for Newcrest Mining given the imminent takeover by Newmont.

Target price is $27.17 Current Price is $26.86 Difference: $0.31
If NCM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.57, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Accumulate (2) -

Following updates to its commodity forecasts, Ord Minnett sees opportunities within its coverage of the ASX-listed Resources sector among gold and thermal coal companies in particular.

After many years of miners focusing upon returning excess cash to shareholders, the broker notes a pivot towards growth, as evidenced by recent M&A activity in the Gold and Lithium sectors.

Ord Minnett's commodity price forecasts are mixed with higher near-term iron ore prices and lower near-term thermal coal prices. Across the broker's coverage, Whitehaven Coal and mineral sands miner Iluka Resources are thought to represent the best value.

Higher iron ore and metallurgical coal prices drive increased valuations for exposed companies, while Ord Minnett's forecasts for copper fall.

The Accumulate rating and $33 target for Newcrest Mining are maintained.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $26.86 Difference: $6.14
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.57, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHC as Hold (3) -

Following updates to its commodity forecasts, Ord Minnett sees opportunities within its coverage of the ASX-listed Resources sector among gold and thermal coal companies in particular.

After many years of miners focusing upon returning excess cash to shareholders, the broker notes a pivot towards growth, as evidenced by recent M&A activity in the Gold and Lithium sectors.

Ord Minnett's commodity price forecasts are mixed with higher near-term iron ore prices and lower near-term thermal coal prices. Across the broker's coverage, Whitehaven Coal and mineral sands miner Iluka Resources are thought to represent the best value.

Higher iron ore and metallurgical coal prices drive increased valuations for exposed companies, while Ord Minnett's forecasts for copper fall.

The target for thermal coal producer New Hope falls to $6.10 from $6.30, while the Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $6.42 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting downside of -16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

With Nickel Industries announcing a final investment decision for its Excelsior nickel cobalt high pressure acid leach project, Macquarie has incorporated the decision into its base case for the company.

The broker is anticipating significantly stronger quarter-on-quarter earnings, estimating a US$98m contribution from the rotary kiln electric furnace and a US$27m contribution from the company's Hengjaya mine. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $1.10 are retained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.315
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPT as Accumulate (2) -

Following 1Q results for Perpetual, Ord Minnett lowers its target by -10% to $27.50 on lower forecasts for base fee margins in the Asset Management division.

Despite the reduced estimates, the broker feels fundamental improvements are in train, with targeted cost synergies expected during FY25 as fund flows recover from current depressed levels. More stable interest rates and a strong investment performance are also expected.

The analyst suggests downside risks from the Pendal merger have been overstated by the market and are manageable. It's even felt targeted annual cost synergies may be exceeded.

The Accumulate rating is unchanged.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $20.53 Difference: $6.97
If PPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.95, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RED as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans raises its target prices for gold companies under its coverage after raising its long-term gold price forecast by 8% to US$1,560/oz. The gold price is expected to remain elevated for the forecast period, primarily driven by central bank demand and physical buying.

In the interim forecast period, the broker adjusts its gold price estimates for FY24, FY25 and FY27 by -1%, 12% and 23%, respectively. It's thought potential rate cuts in 2024 and a weaker US dollar will see a material uplift in gold prices.

As mid cap producer Red 5 is trading above Morgans 30c target (down from 42c, partly due to a change of analyst) the broker's rating is downgraded to Hold from Add. This change in rating was due to a reappraisal of forecasts by the new analyst.

The company, which operates in the Leonora region, has a quality asset base with good long-term prospects, in the broker's opinion.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If RED meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Buy (1) -

In an intial glance at Rio Tinto's September quarter report, Citi notes a stronger production performance with iron ore shipments rising by 5% year-to-date. Mined copper and aluminium production also rose by 1% and 9%, respectively.

The copper outcome was due to the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up and higher grades at Escondida, note the analysts, partly offset by lower production at Kennecott.

Aluminium production benefited from a return to full capacity at the Kitimat smelter and completed cell recovery efforts at the Boyne smelter, explains the broker.

2023 production and shipments guidance was unchanged except for the IOC joint venture in Canada where production guidance was lowered to 9.4-9.8mt.

Target $124. Buy.

Target price is $124.00 Current Price is $115.72 Difference: $8.28
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $120.00, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Hold (3) -

Following updates to its commodity forecasts, Ord Minnett sees opportunities within its coverage of the ASX-listed Resources sector among gold and thermal coal companies in particular.

After many years of miners focusing upon returning excess cash to shareholders, the broker notes a pivot towards growth, as evidenced by recent M&A activity in the Gold and Lithium sectors.

Ord Minnett's commodity price forecasts are mixed with higher near-term iron ore prices and lower near-term thermal coal prices. Across the broker's coverage, Whitehaven Coal and mineral sands miner Iluka Resources are thought to represent the best value.

Higher iron ore and metallurgical coal prices drive increased valuations for exposed companies, while Ord Minnett's forecasts for copper fall.

For Rio Tinto, the broker's target rises to $111 from $107. Hold.

Target price is $111.00 Current Price is $115.72 Difference: minus $4.72 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $120.00, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Add (1) -

Morgans raises its target prices for gold companies under its coverage after raising its long-term gold price forecast by 8% to US$1,560/oz. The gold price is expected to remain elevated for the forecast period, primarily driven by central bank demand and physical buying.

In the interim forecast period, the broker adjusts its gold price estimates for FY24, FY25 and FY27 by -1%, 12% and 23%, respectively. It's thought potential rate cuts in 2024 and a weaker US dollar will see a material uplift in gold prices.

High-cost producer Regis Resources remains Morgans top pick within its coverage of the Gold sector as it is leveraged to the gold price and has a better mid-to long-term outlook. Final approvals for the McPhillamy's project are also expected to be a share price catalyst.

The Add rating is unchanged and the target rises to $2.01 from $1.74.

Target price is $2.01 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $0.38
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Resolute Mining's three-year outlook implies production volumes and costs should be broadly in line with Macquarie's projections, though capex guidance is higher than forecast.

With Mako scheduled to cease operating in FY27, Macquarie points out the Syama Phase 1 Expansion will see the mine's output lift to 260kozpa by 2026, effectively underpinning the gold producer's outlook.

Resolute Mining reduced 2023 production guidance, while Mako's mine's life might be extended via further drilling results.

Short term, the sum of all of the above leads the broker to reduce EPS forecasts for 2023-27. Updated price targets are $0.56 and GBP0.29. Outperform.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.18
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Hold (3) -

Following updates to its commodity forecasts, Ord Minnett sees opportunities within its coverage of the ASX-listed Resources sector among gold and thermal coal companies in particular.

After many years of miners focusing upon returning excess cash to shareholders, the broker notes a pivot towards growth, as evidenced by recent M&A activity in the Gold and Lithium sectors.

Ord Minnett's commodity price forecasts are mixed with higher near-term iron ore prices and lower near-term thermal coal prices. Across the broker's coverage, Whitehaven Coal and mineral sands miner Iluka Resources are thought to represent the best value.

Higher iron ore and metallurgical coal prices drive increased valuations for exposed companies, while Ord Minnett's forecasts for copper fall.

The target for South32 falls to $3.90 from $4.10 and the Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $0.4
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Stockland's Q1 update included affirmation of FY24 funds from operations ((FFO) guidance between 34.5-35.5c per share and Macquarie sits on 34.8c.

The broker prefers to remain cautious because of Stockland's exposure to first home buyers, albeit with the added comment both retail and industrial operational metrics are strong.

Macquarie believes conditions for residential markets will determine the direction of this share price. Target drops to $3.98 (-8%). Neutral.

The impact of delay in residential recovery is compensated for through lower interest expenses in FY24, the broker explains. Any adjustments made to estimates is minimal.

Target price is $3.98 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $0.19
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

During Stockland's 1Q update, management maintained FY24 guidance for pre-tax funds from operations (FFO) of 34.5-35.5cps. Morgan Stanley feels the update was in line with softer market expectations.

Residential sales rose to 991 lots, compared to 917 in Q4, which the broker considers sufficient to reach FY24 settlements guidance of between 5,200 and 5,600.

The company flagged higher gearing this coming December due to a large 2H skew for residential settlements and capital deployment.

Overweight. Target $4.45. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $0.66
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Stockland's Q1 update revealed residential sales rose by 8% on the prior quarter and by 17% on the previous corresponding period.

For retail, UBS notes non-discretionary categories remain resilient with discretionary deteriorating. Overall, FY24 guidance was reaffirmed.

The broker believes affordability constraints will hamper the Masterplanned Communities (MPC) business and prefers Mirvac Group's ((MGR)) exposure to apartments. The Neutral rating and $4.38 target are maintained.

Target price is $4.38 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $0.59
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Sell (5) -

Treasury Wine Estates has reported a more significant than expected earnings second half skew of 55% in FY24, but Citi highlights the skew appears to be a result of the phasing of Penfolds shipments in anticipation of the potential removal of tariffs. 

The broker points out the potential removal of tariffs should prove positive for the stock, but perhaps not as impactful on short to medium-term earnings as some expect if the company is not willing to redirect wine from other Asian markets where it continues to build a brand. 

The Sell rating and target price of $10.50 are retained.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $11.59 Difference: minus $1.09 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.79, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Following a Q1 trading update at Treasury Wine Estates' AGM, Morgan Stanley feels trading conditions are meeting overall expectations. Management anticipates ongoing strong demand for luxury wine and resilience for Premium wine globally.

To retain flexibility, the company intends to phase shipments of Penfolds, as there is potential for a future review of tariffs on Australian wine in China. As a result, group earnings (EBITS) should be weighted to H2 of FY24.

Management expects to deliver FY24 growth in line with its long term ambition, along with ongoing and earnings margin expansion.

The Overweight rating and $14.50 target are retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $11.59 Difference: $2.91
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.79, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Hold (3) -

The September quarter has broadly tracked according to management's expectations, suggests Ord Minnett, due to ongoing resilience in luxury and premium wine demand.

Those expectations held by Treasury Wine Estates include: durable revenue growth; high-single-digit earnings growth; and a lift in underlying earnings (EBIT) margins above 25%.

The analyst highlights management is holding back Penfolds product to provide flexibility ahead of any potential review of tariffs on Australian wine in China.

Ord Minnett maintains its $11.50 target and Hold recommendation.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.59 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.79, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

As part of a Q1 trading update, Treasury Wine Estates noted trading conditions are in line with expectations, with strong demand for Luxury wine and resilient category dynamics globally for Premium wine. 

UBS explains the company has a strong position in this attractive luxury market, which accounts for around 36% of group revenue.

The broker suggests a successful relaunch of 19 Crimes Classic will be needed to drive further volume growth in the Americas. It's felt the outcome will be more clearly judged by early in the 2H of FY24.

The $13.75 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $11.59 Difference: $2.16
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.79, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Equal-weight (3) -

Steven Gregg will be appointed as a Non-Executive Director of Westpac and will succeed John McFarlane as Chair after the December AGM.

Morgan Stanley likes his CV which should be suited to his priorities as listed by management: to reposition for growth, step-up work on the technology transformation, along with delivering better service for customers and better value for shareholders.

The Equal-Weight rating and $20.10 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $20.10 Current Price is $21.31 Difference: minus $1.21 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.61, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ZIP as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS sees limited downside risk for Zip Co and upgrades its rating to Neutral from Sell after a -22% share price fall since the release of FY23 results in August.

The analysts believe management's target for 8-9% revenue yields is achievable, largely due to a recent 25% increase in monthly account fees in Australia for outstanding balances.

Upside risk to yield assumptions is likely, in the analysts' view, with a potential new product launch in Australia before the end of the year. 

The target falls to 32c from 36c on lower forecasts due to caution around the macroeconomic backdrop. 

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.04
If ZIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.76, suggesting upside of 153.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources