Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

The sale of the company's life business is unlikely to proceed on current terms because of the challenges in meeting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's criteria. Credit Suisse notes this allows the buyer the opportunity to review its offer and potentially lower the purchase price by over -$1bn.

The broker believes the -$700m of embedded value piped off AMP Life in recent months highlights the earnings uncertainty and volatility in this business.

Hence, Credit Suisse suggests retaining the business will continue to be an earnings and capital risk and a drag on the share price. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.90 from $2.35.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.1
If AMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans upgrades to Add from Hold because of recent share price weakness. The broker believes stimulus initiatives announced by APRA (Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority), for an additional capital add-on of $500m for operational risk, to be applied until the banks have completed their planned remediation, will de-risk the earnings outlook for the sector.

Morgans considers the initiatives are positive for the outlook for system credit growth and asset quality. The broker expects the major banks to become more attractive to investors from a yield perspective as government bond yields fall.

The broker expects an -18 basis points reduction in the CET1 ratio for ANZ Bank but it is still likely to be above the unquestionably strong benchmark of 10.5%. Target is steady at $29.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.38 Difference: $1.62
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.14, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AQG as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse is not surprised that the company will sell its 50% non-operating interest in the Gediktepe project in western Turkey to its JV partner. The broker commends the company for preserving its balance sheet for higher return options.

The broker's modelling suggests a value of US$50-60m for the sale, but as a gold royalty stream that potentially prices a significant premium. Outperform rating and $5.20 target maintained.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.40 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If AQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AWC as Outperform (1) -

The company has reported net distributions of US$71.8m plus an added US$37.7m post June 30. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse notes net debt of US$54.7m is still well below the targeted gearing range of US$120-130m.

Updating commodity prices and making minor modelling adjustments means Credit Suisse reduces its target to $2.70 from $3.10. The broker believes there are clear downside risks to second half earnings and the near-term market outlook. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.45
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Underperform (5) -

Alumina ltd's June Q alumina production was in line with expectation while bauxite missed slightly. Cash receipts from the AWAC JV with Alcoa were higher than expected. The good news is input costs of energy and caustic soda are coming down, although will probably now stabilise, the broker suggests.

The bad news is alumina prices have also been falling, to -20% below the broker's forecast, which will pressure earnings and dividends. This leads the broker to lower its yield expectations to 6.5% from 7.5%. Underperform retained, target falls to $1.90 from $2.00.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects cash costs to fall, noting Alcoa expects benefits from higher volumes along with lower caustic costs and maintenance. A surplus for 2019 of 0.5-1.3mt is expected by Alcoa.

 Overweight rating. Industry view is Attractive and the target is $3.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.75
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Hold (3) -

Combined bauxite and alumina earnings from Alcoa were in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts. AWAC production was flat quarter on quarter, at 3.1mt. Ord Minnett estimates a 5.8c dividend from Alumina Ltd in the first half, down from $0.19 in the second half of FY18.

Catch-up tax payments are the driver of lower distribution estimates, along with lower alumina prices. The broker expects a material pick up in dividends in 2020.

While there is valuation support for the stock, Ord Minnett considers re-rating catalysts largely relate to a recovery in the alumina market which could be some time away. Hold rating and $2.60 target maintained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.35
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

AWAC produced 3.1mt of alumina in the June quarter and 10.1mt of bauxite. Alumina Ltd received US$71.8m in net cash receipts and will receive a further US$37.7m post June 30.

Alcoa has lifted its expected alumina market surplus for 2019 to 0.5-1.3mt. The anticipated bauxite surplus has been lifted to 13-17mt. UBS maintains a Neutral rating and $2.10 target.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Morgans found June quarter production reasonable and, converted into copper equivalent terms, up by 11%. The broker believes there is strong potential for the company to announce a special dividend of US$0.40 when it reports its full year earnings in August.

Bumper cash flow has been delivered, in no small part caused by surging iron ore prices. The broker suspects higher unit costs are coming in coal, which was the main area of disappointment in the report.

Balancing the prospect of continued capital management with the lofty heights big miners have reached on the back of iron ore prices leaves Morgans with a view that the stock is trading near fair value. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $36.37 from $40.24.

Target price is $36.37 Current Price is $41.05 Difference: minus $4.68 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $40.23, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BSL as Underperform (5) -

Capacity reductions in the US and tighter inventories have meant steel prices have improved, the broker notes, helping to offset some of the impact of persistently high iron ore prices.

Yet the balance of iron ore prices and Asian steel prices still suggests downside risk to BlueScope earnings, as much as -25% in FY20.

The broker remains cautious on iron ore near term. Target rises to $11.15 from $9.20, Underperform retained.

Target price is $11.15 Current Price is $12.63 Difference: minus $1.48 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.23, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Hold (3) -

Morgans believes stimulus initiatives announced by APRA (Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority), for an additional capital add-on of $500m for operational risk, to be applied until the banks have completed their planned remediation, will de-risk the earnings outlook for the sector.

Morgans considers the initiatives are positive for the outlook for system credit growth and asset quality. The broker expects the major banks to become more attractive to investors from a yield perspective as government bond yields fall.

Hold rating maintained. Target is steady at $74.

Target price is $74.00 Current Price is $82.09 Difference: minus $8.09 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.25, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGC as Buy (1) -

Citi notes pricing for mushrooms has been unusually weak this year. This is Costa Group's largest domestic product category. The weakness should abate in coming months but the broker remains cautious about forecasts.

Meanwhile the growth projects continue and the company remains favourably exposed to growth in fresh produce. Buy rating and $4.45 target maintained.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $4.15 Difference: $0.3
If CGC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CIM as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

First half results missed Credit Suisse estimates, largely at the revenue line. Cash conversion step down to 52% versus the levels of 112% witnessed on an annual basis since 2014.

Management attributed this to a change in the business mix, as large infrastructure work was completed and there were a higher proportion of alliance-style contracts with less opportunity for early cash receipts.

Credit Suisse lowers the target to $35 from $46 and downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. The broker reduces 2019 net profit forecasts by 8%.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $36.54 Difference: minus $1.54 (current price is over target).
If CIM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.50, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CMW as Hold (3) -

The company recently completed a placement and raised $375m. Funds will be used for acquisitions and opportunities in Australia and Europe.

FY19 guidance is unchanged and preliminary FY20 guidance has been provided, which comprises operating earnings per share of 8.1-8.3c and a distribution of not less than 7.5c. Morgans notes FY20 guidance assumes a partial deployment of funds.

The broker adjusts forecasts for the capital raising and sale of Northpoint. Hold rating maintained. Target is raised $1.20 from $1.13.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.02
If CMW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

The company has delivered a sequentially stronger quarter in June, with 5.4mt of saleable production. The Curragh mine review is expected to come with the August 5 results.

Credit Suisse was pleased with the quarterly report, given the challenges in previous quarters. Outperform rating and $4.80 target maintained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $1.25
If CRN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.28, suggesting upside of 20.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CRN as Buy (1) -

There was a sequential 8% lift in production in the June quarter and a 4% lift in sales for the company. Low domestic thermal prices in the US has meant the company has curtailed surface operations at Toney Fork by -50%.

Cash at the end of the first half was ahead of UBS estimates. Hence the interim dividend estimate is lifted by 15% to US$0.23 per share. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $4.00 from $3.90.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.45
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.28, suggesting upside of 20.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

An improving cost outlook has offset a slow start in US housing, Credit Suisse observes. The broker believes the industry's faith in a strong spring for US housing appears to have been unrewarded.

Growth is still expected in the second half as lower comparables are cycled. This will be supported by an improving input costs basket. The broker makes no changes to FY20 net profit forecasts.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $23.25 from $23.00.

Target price is $23.25 Current Price is $18.78 Difference: $4.47
If JHX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.78, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes input costs are falling in the US and this is driving upside to margins. Also, the company's US$100m cost reduction initiative over the next three years could mean some early gains in FY20.

Offsetting this is weak US housing starts and concerns over loss traction in primary demand growth. The broker maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $19.90 from $19.70.

Target price is $19.90 Current Price is $18.78 Difference: $1.12
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.78, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Lend Lease has an agreement with Google in San Francisco to develop around 15,000 apartments over the next 10-15 years. UBS estimates the project could add $1.50-1.90 to valuation, depending on the share of development risk the company undertakes.

This project, together with a large multi-year projects in the US, provides a strong base for development earnings, justifying a higher multiple in the broker's opinion. Buy rating and $15.70 target maintained.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $14.94 Difference: $0.76
If LLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.57, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LOV as Add (1) -

Morgans expects relatively flat earnings (EBIT) of $50.9m when the company reports its FY19 result on August 22. The broker, nevertheless, believes Lovisa is one of the few retailers with a meaningful list of store roll-outs, globally focused as well.

The annual roll-out alone should deliver more than 15% growth over many years and the US will be the main focus, Morgans portends. Valuation is lifted, with the target raised to $13.15 from $10.57. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $13.15 Current Price is $11.70 Difference: $1.45
If LOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.98, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MYX as Neutral (3) -

UBS has revised down revenue assumptions for generic products, maintaining specialty forecasts unchanged. Generic entrants have continued to take share in several of the company's key product categories.

With the generic product representing around 60% of group profit, a recovery in earnings beyond FY20 is reliant on regulatory approvals and the successful commercialisation of a number of items in the pipeline. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.53 from $0.60.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.03
If MYX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.57, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -

Morgans believes stimulus initiatives announced by APRA (Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority), for an additional capital add-on of $500m for operational risk, to be applied until the banks have completed their planned remediation, will de-risk the earnings outlook for the sector.

Morgans considers the initiatives are positive for the outlook for system credit growth and asset quality. The broker expects the major banks to become more attractive to investors from a yield perspective as government bond yields fall.

The broker expects a -16 basis points reduction in the CET1 ratio but National Australia Bank is still likely to be above the unquestionably strong benchmark of 10.5%. Target is steady at $24.50. Hold maintained.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $27.50 Difference: minus $3 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.11, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PRU as Buy (1) -

On a gold price forecast of US$1450/oz in FY20, Citi expects 25% growth in operating earnings (EBITDA). June quarter production was 64,000 ounces of gold, down -4% quarter on quarter. FY19 output has lifted by 6% to 272,000 ounces, with the ramp up of Sissingue.

The broker considers headwinds at Edikan temporary. The company expects to break ground on its third gold mine, Yaoure, in the coming week. Buy/High Risk rating maintained. Target is raised to $0.85 from $0.75.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.13
If PRU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.72, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PRU as Neutral (3) -

The company has met FY19 in guidance - just, Credit Suisse observes. June quarter production was 64,125 ounces at US$989/oz.

The broken notes Sissingue production was solid while Edikan remains soft. A delayed start at Yaoure has not affected the target for first gold pour in December 2020. The broker maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $0.62 from $0.59.

Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If PRU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.72, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Perseus' June Q saw weaker grades at Edikan, with Sissingue in line. Management has guided to flat production in FY20, as expected, weighted to the second half. The recent trend of cost reduction is expected to continue.

Despite weaker production, deleveraging of the balance sheet continues. Macquarie nonetheless downgrades to Neutral after a strong share price run. Target unchanged at 70c.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.72, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse notes a mixed June quarter concluded FY19 with production beating expectations in most areas. Misses to estimates were recorded at Australian manganese, SA energy coal and the aluminium smelters.

Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating and trims the target to $3.50 from $3.70.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.5
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Underperform (5) -

South32 posted solid June Q production volumes, but a number of operations missed on cost guidance, the broker notes. Prices for alumina, coal and manganese are all falling, putting pressure on the medium term earnings outlook.

This suggests any capital management to be announced at the upcoming result release is likely to be modest, the broker believes. Underperform and $2.70 target retained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes most assets finished the year broadly within guidance ranges. Operating costs were in line on most assets.

Bids for the divestment of SA energy coal have been received and offers are now being finalised.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating, $3.95 target. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.95
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Hold (3) -

Production volumes in the June quarter exceeded Ord Minnett's forecasts although South African energy coal, Australian manganese and the Brazilian aluminium operations fell short of guidance.

The broker estimates net cash at the end of the year of around US$500m, which could mean the company is in a position to declare another modest share buyback. The planned sale of SA energy coal could also offer a positive catalyst in the near term. Hold rating maintained. Target is $3.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

June quarter production was in line with prior guidance and UBS is encouraged, given the operational issues in the last few years.

The broker trims earnings expectations by -4% largely because of higher costs.

The company will report FY19 results on August 22. Buy rating maintained and the target is lowered to $3.60 from $3.75.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.6
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SHL as Neutral (3) -

The latest data suggest pathology trends in Australia are in line with expectation and Sonic Healthcare's approved collection centre numbers have stabilised.

Earnings result from competitors in the US and Germany show subdued trends, the broker notes, but balance sheet capacity allows for acquisitions in these countries.

Target rises to $27.00 from $25.50. Neutral retained.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $27.93 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.31, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Santos posted record production in the June Q thanks to Western Australian operations. Sales and revenues were nevertheless weak, the broker notes. Yet 2019 production and sales guidance has been narrowed towards the upper end of the range and cost guidance has been lowered.

This suggests to the broker the company is on track to deliver strong earnings growth in 2019, and should re-rate as it moves towards achieving 2025 production targets. Outperform retained. Target falls to $8.10 from $8.20.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.85 Difference: $1.25
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

Production was slightly lower than Morgan Stanley expected in the June quarter but this was offset by further improvement on costs and strong free cash flow.

There is medium term support for valuation from Dorado and the broker considers the de-leveraging remains attractive. Overweight rating maintained. Target rises to $7.90 from $7.70. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $6.85 Difference: $1.05
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Production cost guidance has been revised down -3%, as the company continues to focus on reducing costs across key assets.

Growth projects remain on track, UBS observes, with FID for Barossa due in early 2020. UBS increases valuation to reflect earnings changes and the resource upgrade at Dorado.

Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $7.20 from $7.10.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.85 Difference: $0.35
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SYD as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Accepting a lower-for-longer scenario for bond yields, Morgans has upgraded to Add from Hold. Short term forecasts have been reduced a little, but the analysts point out the small changes have a compounded impact further out.

Growth in dividends per share is now projected to decline to 2% only per annum across FY20-FY23. Lower bonds overshadow all of that, with the price target jumping $1.10 to $8.71.

Target price is $8.71 Current Price is $8.12 Difference: $0.59
If SYD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.44, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SYR as Neutral (3) -

June quarter production was in line with guidance. Operating cash costs, at US$567/t, were 19% ahead of UBS estimates.

Yet the company expects C1 costs will trend down towards US$400/t by the end of the year, although the broker notes this is subject to production outcomes and structural cost management.

Sales rose because of improved contract volumes and logistics. Neutral rating and $0.90 target maintained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If SYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Add (1) -

Morgans believes stimulus initiatives announced by APRA (Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority), for an additional capital add-on of $500m for operational risk, to be applied until the banks have completed their planned remediation, will de-risk the earnings outlook for the sector.

Morgans considers the initiatives are positive for the outlook for system credit growth and asset quality. The broker expects the major banks to become more attractive to investors from a yield perspective as government bond yields fall.

The broker expects a -16 basis points reduction in the CET1 ratio and considers it likely Westpac will operate a -1.5% discount in respect of its final dividend for FY19. The broker does not believe there is a need for any further discounting beyond the second half of FY19. Target is steady at $33. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $27.88 Difference: $5.12
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.44, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WPL as Sell (5) -

Citi expects the first half results could be weak. The second quarter production missed the broker's estimates on revenue by -7% while cost guidance was 5% above expectations. First half earnings estimates are reduced by -20% as a result.

The broker considers the turnaround costs at Pluto are the obvious culprit but also suspects North West Shelf contract re-pricing has not been accounted for by the market. Sell rating maintained. Target is reduced to $29.13 from $30.71.

Target price is $29.13 Current Price is $33.59 Difference: minus $4.46 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.66, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

A miss at Pluto and and lower LNG prices led Woodside to a miss on all of production, sales and revenue in the June Q. First half guidance is weaker than expected due to higher costs.

The broker sees a number of headwinds building around carbon policy uncertainty, transfer pricing and possible delays at North West Shelf and Pluto. Target increases to $35.40 from $351.0, Neutral retained.

Target price is $35.40 Current Price is $33.59 Difference: $1.81
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.66, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WPL as Equal-weight (3) -

June quarter production was weak, Morgan Stanley observes. There was no update on LNG expansion timing but the broker suggests questions are being raised about the challenge of aligning JV partners, given weaker LNG market conditions.

There was a significant increase in production costs, which the broker understands was primarily from maintenance at Pluto. Equal-weight maintained. Target is reduced to $34.10 from $36.50. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $34.10 Current Price is $33.59 Difference: $0.51
If WPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.66, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WPL as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett notes the June quarter was clearly affected by the extended turnaround at the Pluto LNG facility, where production and sales folly has declined -20%.

Weak LNG realised prices meant revenue fell -40%. This has contributed to a -16% reduction in the broker's 2019 forecasts. Ord Minnett maintains a Lighten rating and lowers the target to $33.70 from $33.85.

Target price is $33.70 Current Price is $33.59 Difference: $0.11
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.66, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

The company has pointed to a delay in the North West Shelf-Pluto interconnector, because of the need to optimise when spare capacity is available. The interconnector is now expected in the first half of 2022 as opposed to prior guidance of 2021.

FID for Senegal is targeted for the second half of this year but UBS suspects, with the outcome of the arbitration initiated by FAR ((FAR)) not expected until the end of the year, this could slip. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $34.30 from $35.50.

Target price is $34.30 Current Price is $33.59 Difference: $0.71
If WPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.66, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WSA as Neutral (3) -

June quarter and FY19 production was reliably in line, Citi observes. The Odysseus project is on time and on budget and first production is considered likely at the end of 2022.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $2.50 from $2.35. Operating assumptions for FY20 are unchanged.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.08
If WSA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WSA as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Credit Suisse notes the June quarter production met FY19 in forecasts. Odysseus is on target with early works completed. The broker expects FY20 guidance with the FY19 result.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on valuation and the target is lowered to $2.45 from $2.50.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.03
If WSA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WSA as Outperform (1) -

Western Areas' June Q nickel production was in line with expectations but costs were 12% higher than the broker's forecast. Key metrics were nevertheless in line with guidance, with nickel production at the high end and costs in the middle, the broker notes.

Increases to reserves at Spotted Quoll and Flying Fox leads to extended mine life assumptions. Offtake discussions are set to commence given contracts expire in early 2020, and the broker expects improved pricing. Outperform retained, target rises to $2.80 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.38
If WSA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WSA as Equal-weight (3) -

FY19 production fulfilled expectations and Odysseus is on track. Nickel in concentrate production of 5,400t was in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates.

The broker maintains an Equal-weight rating. Industry view is Attractive. Target is $2.10.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WSA as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes another consistent quarter from the company. Western Areas is highly leveraged to the nickel price and so is benefiting from the 23% surge in nickel prices since June.

UBS remains bullish on nickel on a one-three-year view. Nevertheless, the broker does not believe the recent surge in nickel prices is fundamentally supported. Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $2.40 from $2.25.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources