Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates APA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights the downgrade in the growth outlook for Northern Goldfields Interconnect to 18% utilised in 2027 from around 43% which results in a steady contribution to EBITDA of $9m-$10m compared to growing to $20m.

On a more positive note, the WA government has requested expressions of interest for four transmission projects with APA Group expected to concentrate on the Hammersley connection.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -8.3% in FY25 because of higher interest charges and -6% in FY26 due to a slower increase in the Northern Goldfields Interconnect ramp up.

Target price of $8.23 and Outperform rating remain.

Target price is $8.23 Current Price is $7.64 Difference: $0.59
If APA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.56, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

The iron ore price will stabilise and show some upside, suggests the broker, while copper pricing will likely benefit from the return of price-elastic demand. Metallurgical coal is trading close to cost support, with India and China entering a stronger steel production period.

The analysts raise the target for BHP Group to $47.50 from $46.30 and upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight as company-specific growth and capex risks are now more fully appreciated. Industry view: Attractive. 

The analysts continue to prefer Rio Tinto over BHP Group for its better growth prospects while Mineral Resources remains the key pick in the space.

Target price is $47.50 Current Price is $39.19 Difference: $8.31
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.47, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Equal-weight (3) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

For Boss Energy, while EPS forecasts rise across FY25 to FY27 due to higher estimated uranium prices, medium-term cost estimates also rise at Honeymoon and Alta Mesa.

The broker's target falls to $3.00 from $4.25. Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.31
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.28, suggesting upside of 52.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Citi observes US immunoglobulin prices have continued to move higher meeting the analyst's expectations of CPI-like price increases.

Moderna's new mRNA flu and covid combo vaccine is progressing but with mixed results according to Citi and does not reflect a near-term competitive threat to CSL's flu vaccine.

The hereditary angioedema market is becoming more challenged the broker emphasises with CSL's competitors moving towards commercialisation. The lauch of Garadacimab in 1H25 is expected to replace Takeda's Takhzyro as standard-of-care.

Citi has CSL as the top pick in large caps and forecasts low-to-mid teens EPS growth to FY28 with gross margin recovery in Behring.

Buy rating with $345 target price unchanged.

Target price is $345.00 Current Price is $295.40 Difference: $49.6
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $330.95, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Equal-weight (3) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

The iron ore price will stabilise and show some upside, suggests the broker. The valuation for Deterra Royalties benefits from Morgan Stanley's higher long-term price forecast and the target rises to $3.70 from $3.65. Equal-weight rating. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.04
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.37, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

While the broker anticipates the gold price will perform well near-term, this outcome is already priced into Australian gold equities.

The target for Evolution Mining rises to $4.25 from $4.15, but the rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

The iron ore price will stabilise and show some upside, suggests the broker. The analysts continue to prefer Rio Tinto over BHP Group for its better growth prospects while Mineral Resources remains the key pick in the space.

Morgan Stanley's target for Fortescue rises to $17.45 from $16.65 the rating is upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $17.45 Current Price is $17.43 Difference: $0.02
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.28, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GMD as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of Genesis Minerals with a Buy rating and a $2.55 target price.

Management announced long-term plans to grow production and lower costs with a target of 325koz by FY29 from 132koz in FY24 and a falling all-in-sustaining costs of $1600/oz by FY29 from $2300/oz in FY25.

The broker highlights post FY29 the company aims to increase production further to 400koz per annum.

Bell Potter points to an experienced management team who previously developed Saracen Minerals to a $6bn gold company before it merged with Northern Star Resources ((NST)).

Buy rated. Target $2.55.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.45
If GMD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HPG as Equal-weight (3) -

FY24 earnings (EBIT) for hipages Group beat Morgan Stanley's forecast by 6% and management expects "strong revenue growth" in FY25, with earnings margin expansion and higher net free cash flow (FCF).

The broker raises its target to $1.40 from $1.05 but keeps the Equal-weight rating on valuation. The broker would move to Overweight should the new platform and new apps for Tradiecore prove successful. Industry View: Attractive.

Management plans to transition existing customers onto the platform from Q2 onwards.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.11
If HPG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

Lithium supply ramp-up and weak demand will likely keep the market in surplus in 2024/25, yet the broker sees equities already reflecting these headwinds.

The target for IGO Ltd rises to $4.90 from $4.55. Underweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

The target for Iluka Resources rises to $6.85 from $6.60. Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive. 

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $5.87 Difference: $0.98
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.10, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett highlights the strategy update from Incitec Pivot before it reports FY24 earnings on November 11.

The company emphasised the plan to divest the fertiliser division with potential impairment charges to the US fertiliser business in FY24.

The broker noted management's plan to double EBIT to $600m from a $300m asset base through operational cost savings of around $150m; commercial transactions such as recontracting at circa $90m and regional growth of roughly $60m.

Ord Minnett cuts EPS forecasts for FY24 and FY25 by -6% and -1%, respectively.

Accumulate rating with a $3.35 target price.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: $0.27
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Underweight (5) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

The target for Lynas Rare Earths rises to $5.15 from $4.95. Underweight. Industry View: Attractive. 

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $6.76 Difference: minus $1.61 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.81, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

The iron ore price will stabilise and show some upside, suggests the broker, while copper pricing will likely benefit from the return of price-elastic demand. Metallurgical coal is trading close to cost support, with India and China entering a stronger steel production period.

While the lithium price could stabilise by year-end, a supply ramp-up and weak demand will likely keep the market in surplus in 2024/25, according to Morgan Stanley.

The analysts raise the target for BHP Group to $47.50 from $46.30 and upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight as company-specific growth and capex risks are now more fully appreciated. Industry view: Attractive. 

Mineral Resources remains the analysts' key pick in the space with a business transformation likely to de-lever the balance sheet from 2025. Rio Tinto is preferred over BHP Group for its better growth prospects.

The target for Mineral Resources falls to $55.50 from $70. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $55.50 Current Price is $37.09 Difference: $18.41
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.93, suggesting upside of 31.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NIC as Overweight (1) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

The target for Nickel Industries rises to $1.00 from 95c. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive. 

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.175
If NIC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.10, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

While the broker anticipates the gold price will perform well near-term, this outcome is already priced into Australian gold equities.

The target for Northern Star Resources falls to $14.35 from $15.05 and the rating is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $14.35 Current Price is $15.81 Difference: minus $1.46 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.22, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

For Paladin Energy, the broker's target rises to $12.40 from $12.00 on higher EPS forecasts across FY25 to FY27 due to higher estimated uranium prices. Overweight. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $9.14 Difference: $3.26
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting upside of 44.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

Lithium supply ramp-up and weak demand will likely keep the market in surplus in 2024/25, yet the broker sees equities already reflecting these headwinds.

The target for Pilbara Minerals rises to $2.95 from $2.70 and the rating is upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.82 Difference: $0.13
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

The iron ore price will stabilise and show some upside, suggests the broker, while copper pricing will likely benefit from the return of price-elastic demand. Metallurgical coal is trading close to cost support, with India and China entering a stronger steel production period.

The analysts continue to prefer Rio Tinto over BHP Group for its better growth prospects while Mineral Resources remains the key pick in the space.

The Overweight rating is maintained. The target falls to $135.50 from $137. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $135.50 Current Price is $109.74 Difference: $25.76
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.42, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

While the broker anticipates the gold price will perform well near-term, this outcome is already priced into Australian gold equities.

The target for Regis Resources rises to $2.05 from $2.00, but the rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.1
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.99, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Buy (1) -

Citi takes a read through from Kingfisher results in the UK and Ferguson in the US market for industry trends which are relevant to Reliance Worldwide.

The analyst highlights there is some evidence of an improvement in the UK market while the US "continues to grow" but in the smaller end of the repair and remodelling market.

Citi continues to prefer Reliance Worldwide considering the market conditions where projects have less funding limitations.

No change to Buy rating and $5.85 target price.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $5.84 Difference: $0.01
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.72, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Equal-weight (3) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

Copper pricing will likely benefit from the return of price-elastic demand and the broker forecasts a higher long-term copper price. Metallurgical coal is trading close to cost support, with India and China entering a stronger steel production period.

The Equal-weight rating is maintained. The target rises to $3.20 from $2.95. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie dissects the strata payments funds flow applying findings from the Trowbridge Report and the Deakin Business School to break down what is essentially an opaque structure.

The broker believes "only" 22% to 31% of the total customer payments goes to distribution which includes the strata manager. Prior to the regulatory changes, around 80% of premiums ended up in distribution.

Some 25% of the cost to the customer comes from government levies and taxes. Macquarie remains Outperform on Steadfast Group with a $6.80 target price.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.63 Difference: $1.17
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.75, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

Citi notes SiteMinder has launched DR-Plus as the broker anticipated with a forecast "material" revenue contribution from FY27.

DR-Plus is the first revenue management solution which will not require property management system data. This allows the product to scale quickly. Citi believes this is one of the major positives and strengths of DR-Plus.

Management provided no pricing information at the launch event with the analyst forecasting 1.5% of gross merchandise value for small hotels, 0.75% for medium hotels and 0.25% for large hotels.

Citi highlights the key selling point for DR-Plus is the "seamless execution/implementation of recommendations/changes" with the mobile app as a key facilitator of this function. Customers will be able to receive real-time alerts on demand/price changes.

Buy rated with a $6.60 target price.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.11 Difference: $1.49
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.73, suggesting upside of 29.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Equal-weight (3) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

Copper pricing will likely benefit from the return of price-elastic demand and the broker forecasts a higher long-term copper price. It's noted pure play opportunities of size on the ASX are limited.

The analysts keep an Equal-weight rating for Sandfire Resources which continues to maintain a premium valuation. The target rises to $8.25 from $7.95. Industry view is Attractive. 

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $8.73 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.25, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGM as Buy (1) -

Citi's first take on Sims' 1Q25 trading update for the metals business reveals ongoing challenging market conditions across all geographies with the business expected to generate EBIT of $55m in the first quarter, compared to the broker's 1H25 EBIT forecast of $86m.

The analyst views this as a good start to FY25, particularly for North America which is performing well above 1H25 estimates currently.

South Australia's recycling operations continue to trade strongly, with A&NZ impacted by high China steel exports.

Buy rated with a $13 target price.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.03 Difference: $1.97
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.14, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

The target for Syrah Resources rises to 30c from 25c. Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive. 

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.085
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.56, suggesting upside of 141.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

While risks remain around Chinese growth, Morgan Stanley notes resource stocks have already corrected and sees potential gains heading into peak season.

The broker highlights metallurgical coal is trading close to cost support, with India and China entering a stronger steel production period, which could support the price into year-end.

Mnagement at Whitehaven Coal has provided conservative FY25 guidance, in Morgan Stanley's view, and the stock has recently underperformed the met coal price.

The Overweight rating is kept, but the target eases to $8.35 from $9.70. 

Target price is $8.35 Current Price is $5.94 Difference: $2.41
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.79, suggesting upside of 46.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Citi acknowledges the loss of a CFO is never a positive but given the recent senior management changes at Xero, the analyst is not totally surprised the long-standing CFO, Kirsty Godfrey-Billy, is leaving.

Although, given the shift to M&A with the acquisition of Syft, the broker has raised an eyebrow on timing. Her tenure continues until the March FY25 results.

Xero's current deputy CFO is based in San Francisco and was previously CFO of Poshmark and Ethos.

Citi retains a Buy rating and $158.20 target price.

Target price is $158.20 Current Price is $147.85 Difference: $10.35
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $161.43, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources