Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

Morgans considers share price strength over the last three months for ASX-listed banks is unjustified by fundamentals and has an Underweight view on the sector. The broker's lower interest rate assumptions also provide a headwind for net interest margins (NIMs).

The analyst's order of preference among the majors is ANZ Bank, Westpac, National Australia Bank and CommBank (though the broker's quality-rating is broadly the reverse of this order).

By contrast to major bank peers, ANZ Bank has a relatively smaller exposure to the highly competitive domestic home loan market, and larger exposures to Institutional banking services, explains the broker.

The target falls to $26.23 from $26.83 and the Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $26.23 Current Price is $29.14 Difference: minus $2.91 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.99, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APM as Buy (1) -

APM Human Services International was notified of Madison Dearborn Partners intention to submit an offer ahead of the weekend, with the former requesting an extension to its share suspension over the weekend as its board considered the offer.

While details currently lack, Bell Potter expects any offer from Madison Dearborn Partners to be fair, noting the company has been involved with APM Human Services International since 2020. 

The broker sees a possibility that the offer will beat the $2.00 per share bid made by CVC. While shares are currently suspended, Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating and a target price of $1.93.

Target price is $1.93 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $0.3
If APM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting upside of 54.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

On reflection of ASX's third quarter, Macquarie notes equities trading volumes remained compressed during the period, with average daily volumes declining -3.8% on the previous comparable period.

The broker is expecting interest income to stabilise over the second half as cash rates peak.

The stock continues to present relative stability against the backdrop of a more difficult macro-economic outlook, Macquarie suggests, but a lack of catalysts remains a concern.

The Neutral rating and target price of $63.00 are retained.

Target price is $63.00 Current Price is $64.11 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $62.68, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

In a general update for commodities prices, Ord Minnett notes lower iron ore price forecasts more than offset higher copper prices forecasts for BHP Group.

Iron ore prices have fallen on concerns over Chinese steel demand due to the country's struggling property market and weak infrastructure spending, explains the broker.

The broker now assumes a long-term iron ore price substantially below the current spot price of around US$100/t.

While strong demand from China is supportive of near-term prices, longer-term demand from China is expected to moderate as steel production peaks and then declines.

This will occur as the economy becomes more consumption-based rather than reliant on fixed asset investment, explains the analyst.

The broker's target falls by -4% to $40.50 and the Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $40.50 Current Price is $44.35 Difference: minus $3.85 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.02, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Initiation of coverage with Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on Paladin Energy and Boss Energy with ratings of Overweight and Equal-weight, respectively. Both are becoming key stocks for uranium exposure and a way to play the potential rise in nuclear power adoption, in the broker's view.

The broker's commodity team sees small deficits for uranium till 2025, with a surplus from 2026.

Both companies are trading on lower multiples versus international traded uranium peer producers, according to the analysts, and both plan to re-start uranium mines in 2024.

The broker prefers Paladin Energy for an easier re-start, a stronger position on sales contracts and a firmer growth pipeline.

Boss Energy's growth is in an early exploration phase (limited reported resources), highlights Morgan Stanley, and will likely be geared toward expanding/extending the life of the existing Honeymoon project.

A $4.60 target price is set.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.42, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BOQ as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -

Morgans considers share price strength over the last three months for ASX-listed banks is unjustified by fundamentals and has an Underweight view on the sector. The broker's lower interest rate assumptions also provide a headwind for net interest margins (NIMs).

The analyst's order of preference among the majors is ANZ Bank, Westpac, National Australia Bank and CommBank (though the broker's quality-rating is broadly the reverse of this order).

By contrast to major bank peers, ANZ Bank has a relatively smaller exposure to the highly competitive domestic home loan market, and larger exposures to Institutional banking services, explains the broker.

The broker's rating for Bank of Queensland is downgraded to Reduce from Hold on elevated valuation trading multiples, a declining earnings outlook and a compressed dividend yield relative to history.

Morgans also notes the banks return on equity is significantly below its market-based cost of equity.

The target rises to $5.12 from $5.02.

Target price is $5.12 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: minus $1.17 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Reduce (5) -

Morgans considers share price strength over the last three months for ASX-listed banks is unjustified by fundamentals and has an Underweight view on the sector. The broker's lower interest rate assumptions also provide a headwind for net interest margins (NIMs).

The analyst's order of preference among the majors is ANZ Bank, Westpac, National Australia Bank and CommBank (though the broker's quality-rating is broadly the reverse of this order).

By contrast to major bank peers, ANZ Bank has a relatively smaller exposure to the highly competitive domestic home loan market, and larger exposures to Institutional banking services, explains the broker.

Morgans points out CommBank's valuation is stretched and loan book growth is below system growth as the bank seeks to protect margins during a period of intense home loan competition.

The Reduce rating is maintained and the target rises to $93.89 from $91.28.

Target price is $93.89 Current Price is $118.04 Difference: minus $24.15 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.15, suggesting downside of -21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CBO as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners retains a Buy rating for Cobram Estate Olives, reflecting the company's strong business momentum while the rest of the industry suffers shortages.

On the back of low harvest yields in Spain, and across Europe, in 2023/2024, olive oil marketer Filippo Berio has anticipated shelf price rises of 30-50%. The marketer is, however, optimistic about harvests in 2024/2025.

The broker, however, points out European inventories are low, and will need replenishing before volume increases can have significant impact on output prices.

The target price of $2.05 are retained.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.1
If CBO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Capricorn Metals has lowered its full year production guidance to 112-115,000 ounces, from 115-125,00 ounces previously, following the impacts of rainfall in the third quarter. 

The company's Karlawinda operations were impacted by 280mm of rainfall during the period, limiting ability to deliver material movements and delaying access to higher-grade ore blocks.

The rating is downgraded to Underperform and the target price of $4.80 is retained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes CSL's -4% share price decline over the past twelve months is indicative of the company's more gradual gross margin recovery comparative to market expectations and competition concerns, noting it has underperformed the ASX200 by -11%. 

Despite this, the broker sees a pathway to a share price above $500 per stock within three years.

The Behring operations remain the main driver of group earnings, representing not only 70% of the FY24 operating result but also 90% of the expected increase over the coming five years. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $330.00 from $310.00.

Target price is $330.00 Current Price is $280.05 Difference: $49.95
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $316.73, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DRR as Lighten (4) -

Iron ore prices have fallen on concerns over Chinese steel demand due to the country's struggling property market and weak infrastructure spending, explains Ord Minnett.

The broker now assumes a long-term iron ore price substantially below the current spot price of around US$100/t and lower near-term prices drives reduced earnings estimates for Deterra Royalties.

The broker now assumes a long-term iron ore price substantially below the current spot price of around US$100/t.

While strong demand from China is supportive of near-term prices, longer-term demand from China is expected to moderate as steel production peaks and then declines.

This will occur as the economy becomes more consumption-based rather than reliant on fixed asset investment, explains the analyst.

The target falls by -5% to $4.20 and the Lighten rating is maintained.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Lighten (4) -

Iron ore prices have fallen on concerns over Chinese steel demand due to the country's struggling property market and weak infrastructure spending, explains Ord Minnett.

The broker now assumes a long-term iron ore price substantially below the current spot price of around US$100/t and lower near-term prices drives reduced earnings estimates for Fortescue Metals.

The broker now assumes a long-term iron ore price substantially below the current spot price of around US$100/t.

While strong demand from China is supportive of near-term prices, longer-term demand from China is expected to moderate as steel production peaks and then declines.

This will occur as the economy becomes more consumption-based rather than reliant on fixed asset investment, explains the analyst.

The target falls by -6% to $16.20 and the Lighten rating is maintained.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $24.78 Difference: minus $8.58 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.63, suggesting downside of -17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GQG as Outperform (1) -

GQG Partners has reported first quarter net flows of $4.6bn, and anticipates continued momentum through the year given a reasonable pipeline of client demand.

Macquarie points out market movements were a significant tailwind throughout the period.

While Macquarie is anticipating inflows of $6.4bn over the remaining nine months of the calendar year, the broker sees potential upside risk if investment performance does not deteriorate.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.80 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.51
If GQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GQG as Buy (1) -

GQG Partners is primed to deliver significant EPS growth in FY24, enthuses Ord Minnett. This expectation follows a "strong" 1Q update showing robust funds under management (FUM) growth driven by a strong investment performance and net inflows.

FUM of US$143.4bn at March 31, rose by 4.3% over the month and 18.9% over the quarter.

The broker highlights the FUM year-to-date average is 30% higher than for FY23, and forecasts an EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% over the two years to FY25.

Ord Minnett's target rises to $2.80 from $2.60. Buy.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.51
If GQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JDO as Add (1) -

Morgans considers share price strength over the last three months for ASX-listed banks is unjustified by fundamentals and has an Underweight view on the sector. The broker's lower interest rate assumptions also provide a headwind for net interest margins (NIMs).

The analyst's order of preference among the majors is ANZ Bank, Westpac, National Australia Bank and CommBank (though the broker's quality-rating is broadly the reverse of this order).

By contrast to major bank peers, ANZ Bank has a relatively smaller exposure to the highly competitive domestic home loan market, and larger exposures to Institutional banking services, explains the broker.

For Judo Capital, Morgans expects double-digit annualised returns for investors.

The Add rating and $1.52 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.52 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.215
If JDO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Underperform (5) -

Magellan Financial has reported an ongoing moderation of outflows during the March quarter, with quarterly outflows totaling -$1.3bn. Macquarie notes despite the moderation, the March exit rate disappointed compared to January and February.

While investment performance has been less volatile in recent periods, the broker points out the global and infrastructure funds remain below benchmarks. 

Macquarie expects Magellan Financial would need to deliver sustained periods of outperformance to win over investors.

The Underperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $8.40 from $8.00.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $9.49 Difference: minus $1.09 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

With Macquarie Group's last two May results having disappointed Citi's expectations, the broker sees similar risk heading into the upcoming result

Consensus is anticipating a strong rebound in deal-related revenues from the asset management division, but Citi sees issues with this rebound.

Despite this, Citi considers Macquarie Group one of the most interesting stocks in its coverage at the moment, noting the impact potential rate cuts could have on merger and acquisition activity and asset values. 

The rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral and the target price of $161.00 is retained.

Target price is $161.00 Current Price is $194.98 Difference: minus $33.98 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $187.08, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MSB as Buy (1) -

A carefully worded notice has come from the FDA, says Bell Potter, to notify Mesoblast that available clinical data appears sufficient to support resubmission of the Biological Licence Application (BLA) for Remestemcel.

While to date the absence of a second multicentre study has been a key factor prevented the BLA approval for Remestemcel, the notice suggests data from the single multicentre trial, alongside confirmatory data from the access program, may be sufficient. 

The broker estimates approval around mid-August.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.40 from 58 cents.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.535
If MSB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -

Morgans considers share price strength over the last three months for ASX-listed banks is unjustified by fundamentals and has an Underweight view on the sector. The broker's lower interest rate assumptions also provide a headwind for net interest margins (NIMs).

The analyst's order of preference among the majors is ANZ Bank, Westpac, National Australia Bank and CommBank (though the broker's quality-rating is broadly the reverse of this order).

By contrast to major bank peers, ANZ Bank has a relatively smaller exposure to the highly competitive domestic home loan market, and larger exposures to Institutional banking services, explains the broker.

The broker's forecasts for National Australia Bank are above consensus because of higher net interest income growth and lower credit impairment charges. 

The Hold rating is maintained and the target falls to $30.02 from $30.91.

Target price is $30.02 Current Price is $34.33 Difference: minus $4.31 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.64, suggesting downside of -13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEM as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett now assumes the price of gold averages around US$2,320oz over 2024-26 up from US$1,970/oz.

While this higher average is incorporated into forecasts for gold miners under coverage, the broker also notes the prevalence of cost inflation across both the gold sector and the overall mining industry.

The target for Newmont rises to $78 from $76. Accumulate.

Target price is $78.00 Current Price is $56.69 Difference: $21.31
If NEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHC as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett raises its target for New Hope by 4% to $5.90 after forecasting higher thermal coal prices and after taking into account a lower Australian dollar.

The Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: $1.27
If NHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.89, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on Paladin Energy and Boss Energy with ratings of Overweight and Equal-weight, respectively. Both are becoming key stocks for uranium exposure and a way to play the potential rise in nuclear power adoption, in the broker's view.

The broker's commodity team sees small deficits for uranium till 2025, with a surplus from 2026.

Both companies are trading on lower multiples versus international traded uranium peer producers, according to the analysts, and both plan to re-start uranium mines in 2024.

The broker prefers Paladin Energy for an easier re-start, a stronger position on sales contracts and a firmer growth pipeline.

The company's key growth project is Michelin (6mlb per year) in Canada, which alongside the re-started Langer Heinrich, could make Paladin a sizeable uranium player versus international peers, explains Morgan Stanley.

A target of $1.75 is set.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.33
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PRU as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett now assumes the price of gold averages around US$2,320oz over 2024-26 up from US$1,970/oz.

While this higher average is incorporated into forecasts for gold miners under coverage, the broker also notes the prevalence of cost inflation across both the gold sector and the overall mining industry.

The analyst's target for Perseus Mining rises to $2.05 from $2.00, assisted by a lower Australian dollar, and the Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If PRU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Hold (3) -

In a general update for commodities prices, Ord Minnett notes lower iron ore price forecasts more than offset higher copper prices forecasts for Rio Tinto.

Iron ore prices have fallen on concerns over Chinese steel demand due to the country's struggling property market and weak infrastructure spending, explains the broker.

The broker now assumes a long-term iron ore price substantially below the current spot price of around US$100/t.

While strong demand from China is supportive of near-term prices, longer-term demand from China is expected to moderate as steel production peaks and then declines.

This will occur as the economy becomes more consumption-based rather than reliant on fixed asset investment, explains the analyst.

The broker's target falls by -3% to $112 and the Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $112.00 Current Price is $120.55 Difference: minus $8.55 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $127.50, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Sell (5) -

Citi has revised its operating cost estimates for Regis Resources' Duketon South, reflecting the company's recently awarded $400m three-year mining contract, assuming all-in costs of $85-90 per tonne.

The broker also revisited estimates of the capital expenditure profile for McPhillamys and extended production from underground operations.

The Sell rating and target price of $1.30 are retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Hold (3) -

Following a general review of the commodities sector, Ord Minnett retains its $3.50 target and Hold rating for South32.

Changes to price forecasts for the company's various commodities broadly offset each other, explains the analyst.

The broker's near term price forecasts for iron ore fall, but forecasts for copper, nickel and thermal coal rise.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.22 Difference: $0.28
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.71, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Neutral (3) -

Despite St. Barbara reporting third quarter production of 17,300 ounces from its Simberi operations, reflecting not only 33% improvement quarter on quarter but also a 3% beat to Macquarie's expectations, the broker continues to expect full year production at the lower end of guidance. 

The company has retained its production guidance range of 60-70,000 ounces. 

Macquarie considers the outlook uncertain, but does see opportunity in the Atlantic restart and low capital expenditure for Simberi.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to 21 cents from 17 cents.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.005
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUN as Add (1) -

From a strategic perspective, Morgans sees merit in Suncorp Group selling the NZ Life insurance business, as the group will become a pure, focused general insurer.

The broker notes it's difficult to assess the sale price of NZ$410m due to a change of accounting standards. Suncorp will receive NZ$250m upfront with the balance due 18 months after completion.

The target rises to $17.30 from $16.88 due to impacts from the sale and a valuation roll-forward. Add.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $16.25 Difference: $1.05
If SUN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.38, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

West African Resources has reported first quarter production of 56,000 ounces, reflecting a 12% beat to Macquarie's estimate, while sales of 49,500 ounces slightly disappointed the broker.

The broker points out the open pit and underground operations at Sanbrado both performed better than expected. 

As per the company, the first quarter performance sees West African Resources tracking well towards its full year production guidance of 190-210,000 ounces. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.60 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.285
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Hold (3) -

Morgans considers share price strength over the last three months for ASX-listed banks is unjustified by fundamentals and has an Underweight view on the sector. The broker's lower interest rate assumptions also provide a headwind for net interest margins (NIMs).

The analyst's order of preference among the majors is ANZ Bank, Westpac, National Australia Bank and CommBank (though the quality-rating is broadly the reverse of this order).

By contrast to major bank peers, ANZ Bank has a relatively smaller exposure to the highly competitive domestic home loan market, and larger exposures to Institutional banking services, explains the broker.

The broker's forecasts for Westpac are above consensus because of a higher NIM and lower cost of risk assumptions.

The Hold rating is maintained and the target falls to $22.97 from $23.54.

Target price is $22.97 Current Price is $26.02 Difference: minus $3.05 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.10, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources