Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates AEM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett only initiated coverage in late January and now maintains a Speculative Buy rating alongside a target price of $0.90/sh, unchanged, as Advanced Energy Minerals starts commercial-scale production of “ultra-low alpha” HPA at its 2,000tpa Cap-Chat plant in Quebec for industrial trials.

The broker links demand to AI data centre expansion, arguing HPA’s thermal conductivity can help heat removal when used in thermal interface materials, provided impurities are ultra-low.

A key metric is the L-Series specification of less than 1 ppb uranium and undetectable thorium, which Ord Minnett says customers have confirmed as suitable, with trials under way in South Korea, Japan and China.

The main catalyst is conversion of trials into off-take agreements; the primary risk is slower-than-expected customer qualification and ramp-up. 

Forecasts seem to have deteriorated since that January update (longer and deeper losses).

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.445
If AEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 98% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AIA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights renewed investor interest in Heavy Asset Low Obsolescence (HALO) stocks amid geopolitical volatility and stretched technology valuations, favouring defensive infrastructure names with stable earnings and limited exposure to software-related risks.

The broker notes minimal direct Middle East exposure across the sector, with only around 5% of Auckland International Airport passenger traffic linked to Qatar or UAE routes and roughly 1% of Cleanaway EBIT generated in the region.

Morgan Stanley prefers Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY)), rated Overweight, while Auckland International Airport and Atlas Arteria ((ALX)) are rated Equal-weight and Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ)) is least preferred with an Underweight rating.

The industry view remains In-Line, with the analysts highlighting defensive earnings, infrastructure demand and regulated asset bases as key support for valuations.

Equal-weight rating, NZ$8.88 target and In-Line industry view retained.

Current Price is $7.53. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects a near-term lift in refining crack spreads and fuel margins following the recent jump in commodity prices, although the duration of stronger margins remains uncertain.

Regional crack spreads have averaged about US$13/bbl so far this year, while Australian petrol margins average around 19.4c/L and diesel margins about 22.2c/L, indicating improving downstream profitability.

Ampol is the preferred exposure over Viva Energy ((VEA)) on risk-reward basis, due to the stronger balance sheet, favourable margin outlook. Overweight rated with a $31.00 price target.

Viva is rated Equal-weight with a $2.18 price target as the broker remains cautious about execution risks tied to retail acquisitions and integration.

Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $29.54 Difference: $1.46
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.83, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights renewed investor interest in Heavy Asset Low Obsolescence (HALO) stocks amid geopolitical volatility and stretched technology valuations, favouring defensive infrastructure names with stable earnings and limited exposure to software-related risks.

The broker notes minimal direct Middle East exposure across the sector, with only around 5% of Auckland International Airport ((AIA)) passenger traffic linked to Qatar or UAE routes and roughly 1% of Cleanaway EBIT generated in the region.

Morgan Stanley prefers Cleanaway Waste Management, rated Overweight, while Auckland International Airport and Atlas Arteria are rated Equal-weight and Aurizon ((AZJ)) is least preferred with an Underweight rating.

The industry view remains In-Line, with analysts highlighting defensive earnings, infrastructure demand and regulated asset bases as key support for valuations.

Equal-weight and target price of $4.96 for Atlas Arteria. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.96 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $0.24
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.93, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

February 2026 new car sales data highlight to Citi increasingly challenging industry conditions for ARB Corp.

Hilux Pick-up/cab Chassis 4×4 volumes fell -1.7% on the prior year, while Ranger rose 9% and Triton increased 41%, which the broker attributes to OEM-driven promotions.

Citi notes Shark (-48%) and Great Wall Motors Cannon, (up 225%) collectively accounted for 13% market share versus 14% in the prior year.

Increasing competition is noted from new lower-priced models where ARB typically under-indexes due to limited engineering resources.

The broker also highlights new Chinese entrants, including MG MGU9, LDV Terron 9 and Foton Tunland, collectively represented around 3% of February category volumes. Further launches are expected during 2026.

Target $22.05. Neutral.

Target price is $22.05 Current Price is $23.60 Difference: minus $1.55 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.06, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett maintains a Buy on ARB Corp as Australian February new vehicle sales fell -4.5% to about 90k units, which the broker says reflects ongoing supply disruptions among key manufacturers.

The broker notes ARB-targeted 4WD models see a more modest -2.6% decline, with Hilux up 0.2% and Ranger up 7.1%, but says inconsistent deliveries (notably Toyota Prado and Land Cruiser) remain a drag.

The key metric is the -4.5% market decline, which Ord Minnett flags as a near-term headwind for ARB’s Australian aftermarket operations.

Target $31. Forecasts were updated at the result release in February.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $23.60 Difference: $7.4
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.06, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASG as Outperform (1) -

Autosports Group has entered the South Australian market with the acquisition of Solitaire Automotive, which has 15 dealerships in the state. The deal is expected to be "immediately accretive", with Solitaire generating $300m annual revenue in FY25.

The acquisition would trade broadly in line with current group margins, but Macquarie sees potential upside from a margin perspective as the newly acquired dealerships are integrated into the Autosports network.

Autosports' growth initiatives are on track, the broker suggests, with capacity for further inorganic growth opportunities that should more than offset any potential softening in the new vehicle sales market.

Target rises to $5.19 from $4.90, Outperform retained.

Target price is $5.19 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $2.33
If ASG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AX1 as Neutral (3) -

On further analysis of the first half result from Accent Group, UBS notes like-for-like sales growth is subdued and gross margins fell more than expected because of the promotional environment, as well as the loss-making Glue and MySale.

The retailer has reiterated second half guidance which assumes like-for-like sales growth and gross margins are flat comparatively.

Margins in January were in line with the previous corresponding period, UBS confirms, with the rising Australian dollar considered a tailwind.

Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $1.05 from $1.10.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.045
If AX1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley highlights renewed investor interest in Heavy Asset Low Obsolescence (HALO) stocks amid geopolitical volatility and stretched technology valuations, favouring defensive infrastructure names with stable earnings and limited exposure to software-related risks.

The broker notes minimal direct Middle East exposure across the sector, with only around 5% of Auckland International Airport ((AIA)) passenger traffic linked to Qatar or UAE routes and roughly 1% of Cleanaway EBIT generated in the region.

Morgan Stanley prefers Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY)), rated Overweight, while Auckland International Airportand Atlas Arteria ((ALX)) are rated Equal-weight and Aurizon Holdings is least preferred with an Underweight rating.

The industry view remains In-Line, with analysts highlighting defensive earnings, infrastructure demand and regulated asset bases as key support for valuations.

Overweight rating and target price of $3.11. Industry View: In-Line.

Target $3.50. Underweight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BRG as Overweight (1) -

Management at Breville Group executed strongly in 1H26, highlights Morgan Stanley, with sales growth and preservation of the gross margin despite tariff disruptions.

The result was broadly in line with the broker's forecast but the gross margin beat expectation, while management guided to a slight increase in earnings (EBIT) for FY26.

Morgan Stanley has confidence in Breville regaining a 10-15% earnings growth trajectory supported by structural growth in premium coffee appliances.

Potential tailwinds from recovering distributor order timing and improving margins after a trough in 1H26 are also noted.

Unchanged $38.20 target and Overweight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $38.20 Current Price is $29.13 Difference: $9.07
If BRG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.90, suggesting upside of 33.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSC as Accumulate (2) -

It is Ord Minnett's assertion Capstone Copper’s December-quarter EBITDA proved broadly in line, with lower unit costs offset by a timing issue on Mantoverde sales.

Ord Minnett highlights softer ore grades at Mantoverde and a slower recovery at Pinto Valley, implying weaker production into 2027, partially offset by expected grade improvements at Mantos Blancos.

A key metric is the EPS estimate cuts of -2.7% (2027) and -12.1% (2028) following a -1% trim to 2027 production and a -6% cut to 2028.

The main catalyst is considered with copper prices holding near current levels; the primary risk is identified as prolonged grade weakness extending the production shortfall.

Ord Minnett re-iterates its Accumulate and keeps its target price at $15.00.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.01 Difference: $1.99
If CSC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.70, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Hold (3) -

Having reviewed CSL’s first-half FY26 yet again, the broker's focus is on the improvement required at Behring to meet full-year guidance for 4–7% constant-currency net profit growth.

Ord Minnett says Behring missed consensus by around -9% on weaker-than-expected performance across key proteins, partly offset by beats in Seqirus and Vifor.

A key metric is Ord Minnett’s estimate that Behring must lift revenue by at least US$650m half-on-half (around 12%) at a 50% gross margin to deliver group guidance.

Ord Minnett prefers to see more evidence of successful execution. Forecasts were updated (EPS raised, most notably +3.5% for FY26). Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and keeps its target price at $198.00.

Target price is $198.00 Current Price is $142.86 Difference: $55.14
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $205.76, suggesting upside of 40.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights renewed investor interest in Heavy Asset Low Obsolescence (HALO) stocks amid geopolitical volatility and stretched technology valuations, favouring defensive infrastructure names with stable earnings and limited exposure to software-related risks.

The broker notes minimal direct Middle East exposure across the sector, with only around 5% of Auckland International Airport ((AIA)) passenger traffic linked to Qatar or UAE routes and roughly 1% of Cleanaway EBIT generated in the region.

Morgan Stanley prefers Cleanaway Waste Management, rated Overweight, while Auckland International Airport and Atlas Arteria ((ALX)) are rated Equal-weight and Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ)) is least preferred with an Underweight rating.

The industry view remains In-Line, with analysts highlighting defensive earnings, infrastructure demand and regulated asset bases as key support for valuations.

Overweight rating and target price of $3.11. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.11 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.57
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EDV as Buy (1) -

Endeavour Group pre-reported disappointing 1H26 revenue, earnings and profit numbers in January 2026, Bell Potter reminds investors.

The company’s investment in lower prices and elevated levels of promotional activity lead to an -84bps decline in margins, Bell Potter notes. Inflationary pressures continue to the impact cost base, however were mitigated by cost savings initiatives during the period.

In the first seven weeks of 2H26, retail sales grew 1.3% and hotel sales grew 4.5%. Bell Potter notes retail continues to gain share in a competitive liquor market.

Endeavour plans to unveil its comprehensive strategic review at an Investor Day on the 27th of May 2026. Target rises to $4.15 from $4.00, Buy retained.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $0.31
If EDV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EDV as Buy (1) -

Following a further review of Endeavour Group's interim results, Citi raises its target by 20c to $4.30, despite incorporating lower earnings forecasts, and maintains a Buy rating.

The analyst sees potential for improved performance with execution expected to be enhanced under the new CEO. Accordingly, Citi applies a 10% premium to its ASX100 PE relative valuation.

A summary of the broker's initial research yesterday follows.

At first glance, Citi notes Endeavour Group's 1H26 result was largely in line, with many metrics already pre-released on January 13.

In terms of positives, the group has stopped announcing quarterly updates, which is considered favourable for eliminating more short-term noise around operational performance. Online sales growth was 35% for 1H26, of which 2Q26 generated 47% growth.

Current consensus forecast for FY26 gross margin compression is viewed as not high enough at around -61bps, with Citi's own estimate at circa -70bps, and 1H26 compression at -84bps, during which time reduced shelf pricing was not always active.

Earnings forecasts are expected to be trimmed post result due to lower sales and retail gross margins. Looking through the near term, the broker update sees medium term upside from the new CEO's turnaround.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $0.46
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EDV as Underperform (5) -

In line with the January update, Endeavour Group's gross margins declined materially in 1H26, Macquarie notes, down -84bps year on year, driven by internal (pricing re-set) and external (competitive intensity) factors.

For the second half, Endeavour will see a full period impact of its pricing reset, which will occur alongside ongoing competitive intensity in off-premises liquor. 

The Coles Group ((COL)) Liquorland transition is fully completed while Amazon is also expanding its offering, the broker points out.

With leverage set to rise by June, alongside a greater focus on Hotels renewal capex, Macquarie lowers its dividend forecasts as an accessible lever for investment.

Management confirmed it would hold a strategy day on 27 May. Underperform and $3.40 target retained.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EDV as Equal-weight (3) -

Endeavour Group announced 1H26 results which met consensus expectations according to Morgan Stanley. Group net profit after tax declined by -6.7% y/y as anticipated.

The trading update showed Dan Murphy's and BWS generated sales growth of 1.3% against consensus forecasts of 1.8% growth for 2H26, versus Coles Group ((COL)) liquor down -2.5%.

Hotels advanced 4.5% compared to consensus estimates for 2H26 of 4% growth, with some slowdown in retail and hotel sales growth in February, with the analyst suggesting further "moderation" over 2H26, with the outlook for consumer spending highlighted as uncertain.

Same store sales growth in hotels was boosted by gaming. FY26 expenditure was flagged at the lower end of previous guidance.

Equal-weight. Target $4.10. Industry View: In Line.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $0.26
If EDV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Endeavour Group delivered EBIT in the first half that was at the upper end of guidance while net profit was in line with UBS' estimates.

The broker remains cautious about the extent of the retail turnaround given structural headwinds and despite the strength in hotels, retaining a Neutral rating.

Estimates for FY26 EPS are revised down -1.5% while FY27 is revised up 0.2% amid higher hotel earnings and lower net interest, moderated by lower retail earnings. Targeet is raised to $4.00 from $3.75.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $0.16
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EQR as Downgrade to Trim from Speculative Buy (4) -

The ammonium paratungstate price continues to climb, above US$1,600/mtu. Morgans has lifted the modelled short-term price to US$1,300/mtu, and its long-term price to US$700/mtu from US$600/mtu.

This leads the broker to increase its target for EQ Resources to 23c from 16c. Continued strength in the tungsten price, a most critical metal Morgans notes, could lead to a further increase.

However with the share price above the broker's target price, Morgans downgrades to Trim from Speculative Buy.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If EQR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNP as Buy (1) -

GenusPlus Group has announced it has entered into an agreement to acquire 100% of Railtrain Holdings. The acquisition will be funded by the company’s existing cash balance and syndicated facility.

Railtrain is a diversified rail service provider, Bell Potter notes, with capabilities including overhead wiring solutions, rail maintenance and construction, track protection services, rail signalling and electricals and rail surveying.

Railtrain has a national footprint with approximately 300 staff across offices and depots in Western Australia, Queensland and New South Wales. 

GenusPlus is making another great acquisition, Bell Potter suggests, solidifying its track record for delivering a highly accretive M&A strategy, and complementing its strong organic growth. Target rises to $9.50 from $9.00, Buy retained.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.20 Difference: $1.3
If GNP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Not long ago, Macquarie notes, UHG was the gold standard of vertical integration in healthcare, but some of their practices have since been described as "the dark side of managed care". 

As Medibank Private broadens its healthcare investments, the UHG experience highlights the importance of disciplined operating boundaries, the broker suggests.

While Macquarie is not suggesting there is a financial or ethical problem with Medibank's business, the broker warns that a simple government policy change could cause some practices to quickly unravel.

Neutral and $4.80 target retained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.46
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Macquarie Group’s positioning to benefit from rising gas demand tied to AI-driven data centre development in the US, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic region where new projects are concentrated.

Macquarie’s Commodities and Global Markets division ships gas on around 69% of major US interstate pipelines, which is believed to offer structural exposure to higher gas demand and regional price volatility as data centre electricity consumption rises.

The broker sees upside risk to commodity revenues in 2H26, forecasting growth of 24% y/y followed by 3% growth in FY27, supported by widening US gas price dispersion and firmer European gas prices.

Noting investors remain cautious about assigning higher multiples to commodity earnings, the analyst points to an emerging structural growth option linked to the energy transition and AI-driven power demand.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating with a $223 price target. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $223.00 Current Price is $191.53 Difference: $31.47
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $229.30, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie notes Monash IVF reported 1H26 underlying net profit at the upper end of its guidance range, with FY26 guidance maintained at $20m.

Revenue declined -1.8% y/y, although the group maintained a 19% market share in Australia and improved its clinical pregnancy rate to 40.7%, up 60bps y/y.

Specialist numbers declined slightly during the half, with four recruits and six departures resulting in a net loss of two specialists, leaving the total workforce broadly stable.

Commentary highlights management expects industry cycle growth of 2–3% p.a., with emerging demand drivers such as genetic carrier screening potentially adding a further 1–2% growth from FY27.

Analyst coverage is changed to Byran Tan. The broker is under research restriction. No rating or target price.

Current Price is $0.65. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $0.84, suggesting upside of 27.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PXA as Outperform (1) -

Pexa Group's NSW settlement activity was up 8.4% year on year in February, improving from January (1.4%) although below December (14.2%), Macquarie notes. Queensland activity was up 1.3% in January versus 13.9% in December.

Transfers were weaker in January 2.9% versus December (16.0%). Refinancing activity was particularly weak, the broker notes, down -3.7% in January versus 5.9% growth in December.

Macquarie nonetheless reiterates its Outperform rating and $19.60 target, with Pexa being the broker's key pick.

Target price is $19.60 Current Price is $15.22 Difference: $4.38
If PXA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.90, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REP as Buy (1) -

First half results from RAM Essential Services Property Fund missed UBS' estimates while the REIT has retained guidance for FY26 distributions of five cents.

Management is confident lost rent from unanticipated vacancies will be recovered to bring the FY26 payout ratio to 100%.

The broker awaits execution of the planned divestment and redeployment strategy which could mean portfolio quality, gearing and growth could all improve.

Buy rating. Target dips to $0.70 from $0.71.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.17
If REP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

UBS raises near-term oil price forecasts to reflect the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the "near de facto" closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Estimates for first quarter Brent are raised to US$71/bbl implying US$80/bbl in March and a 2026 average of US$72/bbl.

This is based on the assumption the conflict continues for the next couple of weeks and flows via the Strait are severely disrupted. Forecasts for later years are unchanged.

While recognising that the surge in oil and LNG prices may be short lived, the broker believes it provides companies like Santos an unexpected source of cash flow.

Buy rating. Target is raised to $8.20 from $7.80.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $0.95
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects a near-term lift in refining crack spreads and fuel margins following the recent jump in commodity prices, although the duration of stronger margins remains uncertain.

Regional crack spreads have averaged about US$13/bbl so far this year, while Australian petrol margins average around 19.4c/L and diesel margins about 22.2c/L, ndicating improving downstream profitability.

Ampol ((ALD)) is the preferred exposure over Viva Energy on risk-reward bais, due to the stronger balance sheet, favourable margin outlook. Overweight rated with a $31.00 price target.

Viva is rated Equal-weight with a $2.18 price target as the broker remains cautious about execution risks tied to retail acquisitions and integration.

Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.18 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.33
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

UBS raises near-term oil price forecasts to reflect the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the "near de facto" closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Estimates for first quarter Brent are raised to US$71/bbl implying US$80/bbl in March and a 2026 average of US$72/bbl.

This is based on the assumption the conflict continues for the next couple of weeks and flows via the Strait are severely disrupted. Forecasts for later years are unchanged.

While recognising that the surge in oil and LNG prices may be short lived, the broker believes it provides companies like Woodside Energy an unexpected source of cash flow.

Neutral rating. Target is raised to $28.10 from $25.60.

Target price is $28.10 Current Price is $30.75 Difference: minus $2.65 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.78, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett upgrades Whitehaven Coal to Buy from Accumulate and lifts its target price to $9.80/sh from $9.40 (+4%) as the broker assesses energy-supply risks tied to the Iran–US conflict and disruptions through the Hormuz Strait.

Ord Minnett notes thermal coal futures' rise by around 12% to roughly US$140/t and argues Whitehaven’s seaborne thermal coal exposure (about 36% of revenue) provides leverage to higher prices.

A key metric is the broker’s scenario analysis suggesting an underlying 13% FCF yield if prices track futures, versus an 8% base-case yield.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $8.34 Difference: $1.46
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.74, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources