Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates ACF as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners expects Acrow to benefit significantly from the more than $7bn infrastructure pipeline confirmed in the Queensland 2032 Olympics 200 day review, with key projects requiring formwork and scaffolding services.

The broker estimates Acrow’s potential revenue opportunity across active and upcoming projects could range from $1.85bn to $9.3bn over several years.

Shaw's forecasts are unchanged and the Buy, High Risk rating and $1.30 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.2
If ACF meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

Noting Frasers Group's announcement to expand its JV with MAP Active to take Sports Direct to five new markets in Asia, Citi believes it looks increasingly likely Accent Group will run the sporting retailer in Australia.

That would be a likely near-term catalyst for the stock, the broker highlights.

Frasers Group acquired a circa 15% stake in Accent Group in August 2024. The broker notes the company is in active discussions with Frasers for long-term strategic agreement, and the Sports Direct deal would be subject to reaching commercial terms.

Target price $2.57 and Buy rating.

Target price is $2.57 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.775
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.51, suggesting upside of 39.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates C79 as Hold (3) -

After revisiting forecasts for Chrysos, Bell Potter has downgraded the estimate for assay unit deployments in FY26 and now expects it to be in line with FY25 at 10 units (vs 16 forecast before).

The broker took a signal from the company's guidance last month stating FY25 revenue is tracking at the lower end of the $60-70m range. The analyst also notes the deployment backlog pattern is highly concentrated, making the company reliant on others when the key customers do not take up the product.

The broker factored in high fixed-cost business model and lowered the FY26 EBITDA margin forecast to 30.6% from 33.5%, and FY27 to 36.4% from 38.4%.

Target price cut to $4.70 from $5.40. Hold maintained.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.24 Difference: $0.46
If C79 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.82, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated forecasts for Chalice Mining following announcement the metals recovery at Gonneville will be via floatation and carbon-in-leach process instead of the hydromet plant.

The broker now forecasts smaller production and lower pre-production capex to reflect the lower capacity and plant removal.

EPS forecasts lifted by 32% and 11% for FY25 and FY26. Target price cut to $1.60 from $2.00 on lower production scenario.

Outperform maintained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $0.25
If CHN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 119.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CRN as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has marked-to-market coal prices for the March quarter to date and lowered forecast for the June quarter for hard coking coal (HCC). HCC price is -1% lower than estimated and the thermal price is 8% higher.

For the June quarter, the broker's HCC price is US$180/t from US$190/t.

The broker also lowered 1Q25 sales forecast for Coronado Global Resources on adverse weather effects. This pushed the FY25 EPS forecast down to -14.5c from -5.4c, with a further -1% downgrade to the FY26 forecast and -5% to FY27.

The broker believes a prolonged period of spot HCC price of US$170/t or further decline would create balance sheet risks for the company in 2H, given it heavily relies on cash flow from higher prices.

Target price cut to 50c from 95c. Buy maintained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.16
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.83, suggesting upside of 137.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DXC as Buy (1) -

Following meetings with fuel station industry experts and retail shopping centre participants, Bell Potter returned with an optimistic outlook for the convenience retail industry..

The positive outlook is based on increased capital market interest, prospects for margin growth and undersupply. The broker also notes new car sales data points to more demand for fuel from increased vehicle numbers.

The broker made minor changes to Dexus Convenience Retail REIT's forecasts, resulting in a small upgrade in the target price to $3.35 from $3.30.

Buy retained.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.4
If DXC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates FFM as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes FireFly Metals offers a compelling copper development exposure, supported by recent high-grade infill drilling results at the Green Bay project ahead of a resource upgrade in the second half of 2025.

The resource currently stands at 59mt at 2% copper equivalent, with copper as the dominant metal, and infill drilling is targeting conversion of Inferred tonnes into the Measured and Indicated category to underpin future mining studies.

Shaw observes recent intersections include14.2m at 7.5% copper equivalent and 66.8m at 2.1% copper equivalent, indicating potential for bulk mining.

FireFly is operating six rigs as part of a 130,000m program, with a seventh to be added in May. The broker notes strong cash reserves of $84.1m and draws comparisons to the early strategy of Bellevue Gold ((BGL)).

Shaw retains a Buy, High Risk rating and $1.90 target price.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.78
If FFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FPR as Outperform (1) -

At FleetPartners Group's trading update, management guided to 1H profit (NPATA) of  between $37.5-39.5m supported by a 9% year-on-year rise in net operating oncome (NOI) to February, cost control and ongoing elevated End-of-Lease (EOL) income, observes Macquarie.

FY25 operating expense guidance was reaffirmed at between $91-92m. Management "now expects end of lease income to remain higher for longer".

The Outperform rating and $3.65 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.95
If FPR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 43.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FPR as Buy (1) -

FleetPartners Group's five months year-to-date trading update showed net operating income rise by 9% on a year earlier, Ord Minnett notes, and the update was inclusive of the Accelerate transformation program, which the analyst expects to generate improved efficiency.

The broker points to a decline of -20% in new business written, which is attributed to the cutover to the Accelerate program and weakness in NZ, but highlights assets under management or financed still grew.

End of lease income per vehicle remains robust at around $5,809 per unit year-to-date. Management guided to 1H25 net profit after tax of $37.5m–$39.5m.

Ord Minnett observes the $30m share buyback is complete, adding to a cumulative $255m buyback since May 2021. Target price is lowered to $3.50 from $3.60 and Buy rating retained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.8
If FPR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 43.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Paladin Energy resumed operations following the recent rain event at Heinirich Mine in Namibia and noted there was damage to access and haul roads and minor civil infrastructure.

Citi notes the rain delayed some mining equipment delivery, and because of the impact on production, the company withdrew production guidance for FY25. On the cost front, the company anticipates the capital cost will not be material.

Target price $11 and Buy rating.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $5.35
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 95% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.77, suggesting upside of 90.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Paladin Energy withdrew its FY25 production guidance following the recent rain event in Namibia but UBS is focusing more on the six-month delay to the timeline for achieving maximum capacity.

The company pushed it back by six months to June 2026. While the broker finds it difficult to reconcile, given the rain event was only a week-long disruption, UBS suggests previously lofty expectations will now be reset.

The broker cut FY25 and FY26 production forecasts down by -20% and -15% respectively. Target price lowered to $9.20 from $9.70. Buy maintained.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $3.55
If PDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.77, suggesting upside of 90.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PME as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie is forecasting a more gradual increase in market share gains from Pro Medicus' two contract wins in 1H25, including the Trinity Health contract.

The broker is now assuming a market share of around 10% in FY27 vs 11% forecast before.  Longer-term assumption is left unchanged at 15% by FY30.

The analyst cut FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts by -9% and -19% on the revised forecasts and updated forex estimates. 

Target price cut to $257.40 from $258.50. Neutral retained.

Target price is $257.40 Current Price is $227.74 Difference: $29.66
If PME meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $262.48, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PRN as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter expresses increased confidence in the outlook for Perenti, raising its target price to $1.45 from $1.35 and retaining a Buy rating.

Although the mining services group does not have direct leverage to rising gold and copper prices, its customers are likely in solid financial positions and incentivised to optimise or expand production, suggests the broker.

Management has been buying back shares which have traded below net tangible assets (NTA), which will be beneficial to EPS, highlight the analysts.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.145
If PRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SCG as Accumulate (2) -

Scentre Group has refinanced $1bn of debt at considerably better margins, which has resulted in a decline in annual interest costs of -3% and an increase in earnings of 2%, Ord Minnett explains.

The refinancing of $650m in subordinated notes and a drawdown of $350m in debt was used to repay $1bn in USD subordinated notes.

The broker highlights the refinancing weighted average cost of debt is assumed at 5.8% and the average margin savings are forecast at -300bps.

An Accumulate rating is retained with a $3.63 target price, with potential for FY25 guidance to lift.

Target price is $3.63 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: $0.16
If SCG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHL as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett explains Sonic Healthcare has invested over $2.3bn in M&A in the USA over twenty years, and this represents around 23% of the company's revenue and 18% of earnings before interest and tax.

The broker proposes Sonic could consider divesting the US assets, which have the lowest estimated margins of the company's global pathology business and an estimated return on capital invested of around 5.8%.

Despite the proposition, Ord Minnett expects Sonic to most probably focus on improving operating leverage and achieve some synergies from previous acquisitions.

Lighten rating and $26.50 target price maintained.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $25.86 Difference: $0.64
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.71, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SPZ as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes Smart Parking offers attractive value following short-term selling pressure post its US acquisition, while fundamentals remain unchanged.

The sell-down followed a capital raising to fund the Peak Parking acquisition, explains the broker, yet the company continues to demonstrate strong organic growth and improving earnings visibility.

Regulatory risks in the UK have eased, and Smart Parking is gaining share through its Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) technology and sales capability.

No change to Buy, High-Risk rating and $1.25 target.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.555
If SPZ meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SVM as Outperform (1) -

In a surprising outcome to Macquarie, Sovereign Metals has announced a $40m share placement at 85c per share, suggesting higher study and corporate costs than previously forecast by the broker.

Management indicated the funds will also support permitting, technical studies, general working capital, and other corporate initiatives.

The broker notes there has been no indication of Rio Tinto participating in the raise, though it retains the option to become the operator under commercial, arm’s-length terms.

The target falls to $1.00 from $1.20. Outperform.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.185
If SVM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TUA as Buy (1) -

Citi retains its Buy rating and $7.10 target for Tuas, somewhat perplexed by the negative share price reaction to yesterday's interim results.

In the broker's view, three likely factors may have contributed to the sell-down: a potential divestment by a major shareholder; slowing mobile subscriber growth in the second quarter; and a decline in mobile ARPU.

Despite these factors, the analysts' overall thesis for Tuas remains unchanged.

A summary of Citi's initial research yesterday follows.

On first take, Citi notes Tuas reported positive first half results with ongoing gain in market share.

The broker highlights both mobile and broadband came in better than expected, with margins also tracking above estimates, which is attributed to good cost management.

Mobile subscribers grew 4% to 1.16m from 1Q25 and were 3% above the analyst's forecast, which suggests around a 12% market share.

Broadband subscribers were 14,347, 205 above Citi's expectation, while 2Q25 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) were 6% and 5% higher, respectively, than 1Q. Broadband revenue was slightly below expectations.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $5.80 Difference: $1.3
If TUA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -

In an update following Bunnings' investor day presentation, Citi notes the chain's expanding range of products, including the in-store radio addition, will be incrementally positive for margins over time.

The broker notes Bunnings sees an opportunity in solar battery and in-store EV charging.

The expanded tool shop format has a target of 190 total stores by end-FY25, and in retail media, the roll-out is progressing with 300 digital screens already installed. The retail chain will complement this with in-store radio.

Target price $61 and Sell rating.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $72.06 Difference: minus $11.06 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $71.29, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter marks-to-market hard coking and thermal coal prices for the March quarter so far, and reduces its June quarter hard coking coal forecast to US$180/t from US$190/t. Long-term forecasts are unchanged.

The broker warns ongoing weakness in met coal prices could place pressure on Whitehaven Coal's balance sheet in the second half of 2025, with breakeven earnings (EBITDA) requiring a hard coking coal price of US$185/t.

Production in the March quarter may be impacted by elevated rainfall at Curragh, observe the analysts, although US operations are expected to perform consistently.

Bell Potter lowers the target price to $7.70 from $8.00 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $5.43 Difference: $2.27
If WHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.59, suggesting upside of 56.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

To sustainably accelerate growth and reduce customer churn in the US, Citi analysts have come to the conclusion Xero needs to spend more on marketing over there.

This is as yet not reflected in consensus forecasts, according to Citi. The analysts can see questions arising from this dynamic but have themselves formed greater confidence the company will pull it off successfully.

Medium term growth forecasts have thus been lifted. From Q4 FY26 onwards, the broker believes brand marketing spending will increase to US$50m per annum (once Gusto integration is completed). 

Target price is $198.00 Current Price is $159.64 Difference: $38.36
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $196.15, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources