Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A11 as Outperform (1) -

Atlantic Lithium reported receipt of the mine operating permit for its Ewoyaa lithium project in Ghana which Macquarie views as another "key milestone" for the company.

This allows for construction to start on the project although the elections are understood to have delayed the final investment decision as the lease needs to be ratified by parliament.

Macquarie points to the rejection of an indicative offer from major shareholder Assore (around 27.6% shareholding at start of Sept). The company is believed to be attractive with a circa 37mt resource at 1.24% Lithium Oxide and a suite of portfolio opportunities.

Atlantic Lithium is Outperform rated with a 30c target price.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.025
If A11 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASX as Lighten (4) -

Following the September activity update, Ord Minnett raises its EPS estimate for FY25 by 2% to reflect the trends seen in Q1 FY25 for the ASX. The broker points to ongoing robust growth albeit at a more modest pace than the first two months of FY25.

Ord Minnett's target rises to $60.70 from $59.50. While the stock offers defensive qualities, the broker observes it is trading on a PE ratio of circa 25x times, an almost 40% premium to the ASX200 Index. Hence, the analyst's Lighten rating.

Target price is $60.70 Current Price is $65.31 Difference: minus $4.61 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $60.82, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BLX as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on founder-led lighting specialist Beacon Lighting with a Buy rating. It's felt management will deliver profit growth in line with existing expansion plans with a boost from improving consumer confidence and housing markets.

Traditionally, sales have been generated through the store network, but the analysts point to new sources from an increased focus on trade, e-commerce, and international sales.

Management has a track record of executing growth projects and delivering strong earnings and returns, highlight the broker.

A $3.35 target is set.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $0.38
If BLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes AEMO data for 1Q25 reveal growth in gas production for Beach Energy's domestic assets. Otway production for 1Q25 suggests growth of around 8% on previous estimates.

The broker also points to better-than-anticipated BassGas production of around 1.4PJ versus the analyst's forecast at 0.8PJ.

Macquarie lifts EPS forecasts by 4% in FY25 and 5% in FY25 resulting from better gas production.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target price lifts 4% to $1.35.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.075
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.46, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Speculative Buy (1) -

After Brazilian Rare Earths completed re-assaying at the Monto Alto drillhole intercepts for tantalum, grades were in line with Ord Minnett's forecast.

More positively, the new weighted average provided for mineralised intercepts of 16.4% total rare earth oxides (TREO) beat the broker's 15.1% estimate.

The Speculative Buy rating is reiterated, and the target rises to $7.00 from $6.40.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $4.4
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 169% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COH as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has taken into account the last data on currency changes for healthcare companies over the September quarter.

The broker highlights changes to forex assumptions for CSL and ResMed which report in US dollars and for Cochlear, Ramsay Health Care and Sonic Healthcare which report in Australian dollars.

Hold rating unchanged. Target price declines to $301 from $308. EPS forecasts are lowered by -1.4% for FY25 and -2.3% for FY26.

Target price is $301.00 Current Price is $293.43 Difference: $7.57
If COH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $291.80, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie adjusts earnings forecasts for Capstone Copper's lowering of production guidance, including the Mantoverde optimised feasibility study.

Management indicated production guidance of 190-220kt and cost guidance of US$2.30-US$2.50lb. Accordingly, the analyst reduces production estimates and raises cost forecasts.

The optimisation of Mantoverde at a cost of -US$146m is expected to de-bottleneck milling capacity to 16.4mt p.a. from 11.7mt p.a. while bringing forth a reduced capital intensity of US$7500/t.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -8% in 2024 and -5% in 2025. Capstone Copper remains the preferred senior copper producer for the broker with a robust organic pipeline of growth.

Target price lifts 1% to $12.80.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.78 Difference: $1.02
If CSC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett considered the latest data on currency changes for healthcare companies over the September quarter.

The broker highlights changes to forex assumptions for CSL and ResMed which report in US dollars and for Cochlear, Ramsay Health Care and Sonic Healthcare which report in Australian dollars.

Accumulate rating retained for CSL with target price moving to $320 from $319. EPS forecasts increase by 0.5% in FY25 and 0.9% in FY26.

Target price is $320.00 Current Price is $292.52 Difference: $27.48
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $331.15, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYL as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of Catalyst Metals with a Buy rating and $3.90 target price.

The broker highlights the company is an Australian gold and exploration company with two processing plants at Plutonic Gold operation (WA) and one at Henty Gold operation (TAS), with respective mineral resources of 3.6Moz and 1.0Moz.

An increase of 46% production was achieved at Plutonic alongside a 66% rise in ore reserves in FY24. Management is now focusing on growing the value of Plutonic with the development of satellite mines and expanding processing capacity in 2025.

The company's target is to grow gold production to around 200koz in 2027 from 110koz in FY24.

Buy rated. Target price $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $1.11
If CYL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates DRO as Buy (1) -

Chances of meeting the 2H $72m consensus revenue target for DroneShield have risen, notes Shaw and Partners, following a new $13.5m repeat order from a US Government customer.

Overall, the broker expects DroneShield will experience considerable operating leverage due to rising global defence budgets and a focus on counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS).

Buy rating maintained. Target is $1.30 and unchanged.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: minus $0.045 (current price is over target).
If DRO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ELD as Buy (1) -

Although Bell Potter is lowering EPS forecasts for FY24 and FY25 by -9% and -4%. respectively, the broker is more upbeat on the outlook for Elders with cycling of weaker earnings in the year prior in 4Q24 and 1Q25.

The earnings adjustment reflects mark-to-market of retail pricing.

A robust finish to the winter cropping season supports a strong wheat belt season. Livestock pricing and volumes are also up as livestock activity is viewed as a tailwind for 4Q24 and softer annual comparisons for 1Q25.

Target price is lifted to $9.45 from $9.30 due to a lower risk free rate. Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $9.45 Current Price is $8.41 Difference: $1.04
If ELD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.09, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates FFM as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Via an equity raise management at FireFly Metals has raised $65m to (largely) accelerate drilling at the Green Bay copper-gold project in Newfoundland, Canada.

The company is catalyst rich over the next six months, highlight the analysts at Shaw and Partners, with two resource updates, more step-out drilling results and down hole electromagnetic (EM) survey results

The target price falls to $1.40 from $1.50. Buy, High Risk rating retained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.355
If FFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights a report from Datacentrenews stating Goodman Group has completed construction of a third building at its Tsuen Wan West data centre campus in HK and has handed it over to GDS Holdings, whom the group are working with.

The new data centre has a 50MW capacity and is part of the 225MW capacity of the Goodman Tsuen Wan West campus. Previously it was an old textiles factory, bought by Goodman Group in 2014, the broker notes.

Citi remains upbeat on the group's medium and long-term growth outlook with the 5GW global data centre power bank and $13bn of work in progress of which data centres are 40% of 400MW power bank.

Buy rating and $40 target unchanged.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $36.82 Difference: $3.18
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.53, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GQG as Outperform (1) -

GQG Partners reported net inflows for 3Q24 of US$6.6bn and Sept of US$2.2bn with management anticipating momentum in flows to continue.

Institutional was softer and experienced redemptions with wholesale and sub-advised offsetting institutional.

Macquarie tweaks EPS estimates by -0.9% for both FY25/FY26. 

Outperform rating remains. Target price lowers to $3.15 from $3.20. The broker explains the 10.6x price-to-earnings ratio and 8.9% yield as indicative of the market discounting a slowdown in investment performance.

A re-rating of the stock is believed to be possible on the potential selldown of circa 4.5% or $330m of stock from major shareholders.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.59
If GQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LOT as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Around a year earlier-than-expected by Shaw and Partners, management at Lotus Resources now expects first uranium production at the Kayelekera Uranium Project in Malawi in the 3Q of FY25.

As earlier production is more important than lower costs in the current high uranium price environment, explains the broker, the accelerated development schedule includes lower initial capex, but higher opex.

The Buy rating is maintained with a target price of $0.72. High Risk.

Target price is $0.72 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.455
If LOT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 172% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting upside of 92.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

REA Group has reported a strong start to Spring, Citi comments, with national new listings rising 10% year-on-year and up 7% year-on-year in 1Q25.

The broker notes this is higher than expectations and exceeds FY25's 5% growth estimates. Sydney was the most robust, up 18%, Brisbane is up 14% and Melbourne up 10% annually.

Citi highlights Sydney and Melbourne are the highest yielding markets, but the geographical mix is expected to be less important in FY25 than in the previous corresponding period.

On balance, the analyst believes there is upside risk to consensus forecasts and 1Q25 revenue could advance 20%, reflecting 14% growth annually.

Buy rated with a $230 target unchanged.

Target price is $230.00 Current Price is $212.00 Difference: $18
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $224.31, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RHC as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has taken into account the last data on currency changes for healthcare companies over the September quarter.

The broker highlights changes to forex assumptions for CSL and ResMed which report in US dollars and for Cochlear, Ramsay Health Care and Sonic Healthcare which report in Australian dollars.

Hold rating and $42.40 target price remain unchanged. EPS forecasts increase by 0.7% in FY25 and 0.8% in FY26.

Target price is $42.40 Current Price is $42.58 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.98, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMD as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has taken into account the last data on currency changes for healthcare companies over the September quarter.

The broker highlights changes to forex assumptions for CSL and ResMed which report in US dollars and for Cochlear, Ramsay Health Care and Sonic Healthcare which report in Australian dollars.

EPS forecasts are raised by 1.1% in FY25 and 0.7% in FY26. Accumulate rating remains. Target price lifts to $39.25 from $39.00.

Target price is $39.25 Current Price is $34.45 Difference: $4.8
If RMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.83, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHL as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett has taken into account the last data on currency changes for healthcare companies over the September quarter.

The broker highlights changes to forex assumptions for CSL and ResMed which report in US dollars and for Cochlear, Ramsay Health Care and Sonic Healthcare which report in Australian dollars.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -0.6% in FY25 and -0.3% in FY26. Lighten rating remains with a target price of $23.50 down from $23.75.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $26.86 Difference: minus $3.36 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.70, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SMI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter believes the inclusion of the 100% owned Bendigo-Ophir gold project for Santana Minerals on the list of 149 projects endorsed as "Proposals of National Significance" will support involvement in the NZ Government's 'one-stop-shop' Fast Track Approvals Bill.

This is viewed as a major time saving result and a "material achievement" for the company, the analyst stresses.

Speculative Buy rating maintained. Target price is raised to $2.93 from $2.76.

Target price is $2.93 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.71
If SMI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SVW as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter considers Seven Group's earnings growth outlook at 'high-single digit' as "conservative" and believes analyst upgrades are probable at the 2024 AGM or 1H25 earnings results.

WesTrac is highlighted as the possible catalyst for upgrades with the division expected to announce strong revenue growth and generate over 80% of the group's EBIT growth in FY25.

In contrast, the analyst notes a near-term recovery in housing markets is unlikely, while engineering construction work commenced in NSW, and VIC remains under pressure, compared to growth in QLD and a recovery in WA. 

Boral and Coates will be most impacted in NSW and VIC.

Buy rating remains. Target price lifts to $48.50 from $46. No major changes to EPS forecasts.

Target price is $48.50 Current Price is $43.44 Difference: $5.06
If SVW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $47.10, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLC as Buy (1) -

Tomorrow, Lottery Corporation will hold its inaugural investor day and Ord Minnett expects discussion around the structural tailwind from online sales. Also, the new strategy of raising prices by 2% to offset a 20% increase in newsagent commissions should be covered.

Regarding the maintenance of current operating leverage, the broker is anticipating a target to keep operating cost growth below revenue growth.

The Buy rating and $5.70 target are maintained.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: $0.68
If TLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates VGL as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes an opportunity has been created to snap up shares in Vista International. This follows 19.9% shareholder Admetus Capital seeking to remove two directors and making some potentially misleading statements around financial performance.

The Vista share price has declined by -10% from its peak post "good" 1H financials in August, according to the broker, and a subsequent September trading update confirmed FY24 targets are on track.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $3.00 target are reiterated.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: $0.39
If VGL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources