Australian Broker Call

Citi rates APX as Buy (1) -

Citi considers 2019 was a transformative year for the company and expects Appen to leverage its increased scale and capabilities, further distancing from competitors in 2020. Revenue is expected to grow 25%.

There is also upside risk to these forecasts if the company gains material traction from one of its growth pillars. Government is seen as a key opportunity given Figure Eight security clearance and the company secured data annotation capabilities.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $31.00 from $32.99.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $25.84 Difference: $5.16
If APX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.00, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BKL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi continues to believe the stock is overvalued but acknowledges an underweight position is risky given the ongoing pursuit of a Chinese partner, increased multinational interest in the segment and the prospect of Marcus Blackmore selling shares.

The broker upgrades to Neutral from Sell and incorporates a takeover scenario into the valuation. Target is raised to $88 and $66.

Blackmores is expected to report on February 25 and Citi estimates first half sales of $349m with earnings (EBIT) of $33m.

Target price is $88.00 Current Price is $88.09 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If BKL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $74.33, suggesting downside of -15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLX as Buy (1) -

The magnitude of the weakness in the first half appears greater than Citi expected. The broker envisages conditions will improve over the next 12 months because of an improving housing cycle.

Sales momentum is still expected to decline in the second half, albeit at a slower rate. Emerging business has underperformed in the first half, largely because of increased US investment and timing issues in Light Source Solutions.

However, the broker observes significant medium-term growth opportunities in these businesses. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.19 from $1.30. Beacon Lighting will report its results on February 20.

Target price is $1.19 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.14
If BLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BLX as Hold (3) -

First half net profit guidance of $9m suggests a drop of -22%. This stems from persistently challenging trading conditions, FX headwinds and lower growth from emerging business.

Morgans does not believe the company is losing share in its category, rather the category itself is in decline. A slowly improving housing market would provide some positive leverage over time.

The broker maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $1.14 from $1.16.

Target price is $1.14 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.09
If BLX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CCP as Outperform (1) -

Credit Corp's first half profit was 15% above the prior year and a small beat on the broker's forecast. The company guided to FY20 profit growth of 15-18% last year following the acquisition of Baycorp, but has now tightened up the bottom end of its purchased debt ledger acquisition guidance. The broker considers that guidance to be conservative.

The result supports an investment case of growth in US debt buying and stability in A&NZ debt buying, with the potential for industry consolidation. Outperform and $35.60 target retained.

Target price is $35.60 Current Price is $34.40 Difference: $1.2
If CCP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.70, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CCP as Hold (3) -

First half net profit growth was 15%, in line with expectations, and FY20 net profit guidance has been maintained at 15-18% growth.

Morgans notes acquisition opportunities remain the key upside risk and competitor stress could lead to such opportunities being forthcoming.

The broker remains positive on the stock but retains a Hold rating based on valuation. Target is raised to $35.50 from $34.00.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $34.40 Difference: $1.1
If CCP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.70, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCP as Hold (3) -

Credit Corp reported first half net profit of $38.6m, 15% ahead of the prior corresponding half but below Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker believes the business is being supported by changes to the market structure.

FY20 net profit guidance of $81-83m has been maintained. However, the broker suspects this could be conservative. Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $30.00 from $26.50.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $34.40 Difference: minus $4.4 (current price is over target).
If CCP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.70, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CL1 as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans notes managing director Andrew Russell has delivered on a promise to reduce the reliance on a single product. The purchase of NowInfinity takes the company into a larger software market, although the overlap with the existing client base is high.

The broker considers the deal highly accretive to valuation. The strategy involves some implementation and timing risks but could eventually return the company to double-digit revenue and earnings growth.

Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add as the stock is now trading near the revised valuation. Target is raised to $2.00 from $1.41.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If CL1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates COE as Neutral (3) -

Sales gas from Sole has been delayed to mid March because of bushfires and the area is still subject to fire-related risk. Credit Suisse suspects further risks to the schedule are possible as the resumption of work has been spasmodic because of the fire risk.

The broker expects a minor re-rating once Sole is up and running. The project is still within original cost estimates, the company said. Target is reduced to $0.58 from $0.60 and a Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.03
If COE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.64, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COE as Outperform (1) -

Cooper Energy's December quarter performance was better than expected thanks to strong volumes from Casino Henry. The delay of first gas from Sole has now been extended further given the bushfires have impeded commissioning of the Orbost gas plant.

The ramp-up of Sole and the Orbost plant are key catalysts, the broker suggests. While the delay impacts on near term earnings forecasts, production is expected to double in FY20 and again in FY21. Outperform and 65c target retained.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.1
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.64, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COE as Hold (3) -

December quarter production reflected lower-than-expected output from the Otway Basin. Pending no further interruptions to commissioning at the Orbost gas plant the company should begin supplying gas from the Sole field.

This comes after nearly a year's delay from the original expected start date. The outlook for further production is developing and a final investment decision on Annie and Henry are expected by the end of 2020.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and $0.64 target.

Target price is $0.64 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.09
If COE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.64, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

The broker has slightly trimmed forecast for Crown Resorts while noting consensus expectations from FY22 and beyond for Crown Sydney have materially widened. The casino is set to open in the lunar new year of FY21.

The broker considers current valuation to be fair, at a 20% premium to rival Star Entertainment ((SGR)). Neutral and $12.60 target retained.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $11.56 Difference: $1.04
If CWN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.21, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes, while apartment sales in Sydney have improved, the outlook for premium gaming has deteriorated since the licence was granted. As a result, the opening will likely be a drag on profit if the property ramps up.

Meanwhile, the company continues to hold cash generating assets in Melbourne and Perth. With a lack of growth and the stock trading broadly in line with valuation, UBS struggles to find a positive catalyst in the shares.

Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $11.65 from $11.20. The broker also expects the ongoing public inquiry will overhang the stock in coming months.

Target price is $11.65 Current Price is $11.56 Difference: $0.09
If CWN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.21, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Buy (1) -

A highly competitive market, large-scale deals and rotation to front book from back book pricing are coinciding with pressure on revenue margins. Ord Minnett reduces margin assumptions and lowers the company's FY25 margin estimates by -11%.

The broker remains positive on the sector, expecting upside from specialist flows. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $14.63 from $16.09.

Target price is $14.63 Current Price is $11.17 Difference: $3.46
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.98, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

The company has downgraded margin guidance because of the impact of inclement weather. Credit Suisse finds there is not enough detail to draw definitive conclusions on the update and the impact on sustainable earnings.

While the 16.9% underlying margin may appear weaker than some were expecting, if the expense savings are skewed to the second half this could actually imply outer year upgrades.

The broker is confident the natural peril allowance will increase in FY21 and so to could reinsurance costs. FY20 reported profit estimates are lowered by -20% and FY21 by -4%.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $7.65 from $8.00.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $0.47
If IAG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.48, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Underperform (5) -

Insurance Australia Group has downgraded margin guidance by -8.8% to the midpoint of 14.5-16.5% but this assumes no further major events before June 30. The broker views this assumption as optimistic, and thus maintains Underperform.

The broker has cut forecast earnings by -18% in FY20 and -5% in FY21. Target falls to $6.80 from $7.05.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.48, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IDX as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie sees the outlook for diagnostic imaging in Australia as attractive, underpinned by population growth and ageing. Integral Diagnostics is exposed to key catchment areas with favourable characteristics compared to state averages.

The stock appears well positioned relative to domestic healthcare peers on a valuation basis, the broker suggests. Coverage initiated with an Outperform rating and $4.55 target.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: $0.42
If IDX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHG as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley envisages many upside risks, the largest positive being better retail flows. This should drive a substantial re-rating, either at the fourth quarter result or in the next quarter and the broker upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight.

In the results on February 4 the broker targets adjusted earnings of US$134m and expects flows to improve. A new US$100m buyback is expected.

The stock is considered cheap versus Australian peers and the target is raised to $47.00 from $34.50. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $38.30 Difference: $8.7
If JHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.98, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNK as Buy (1) -

Citi reduces FY20 and FY21 estimates by -3% and -10% respectively, based on substantially lower buyback expectations.

The broker's Buy rating is unchanged and most of the one-off headwinds in FY20 are expected to fade in FY21.

Moreover, Citi finds the valuation relatively undemanding and the target is lifted to $7.05 from $6.20.

Target price is $7.05 Current Price is $6.24 Difference: $0.81
If LNK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.76, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MSV as Add (1) -

The second quarter performance was stronger than Morgans expected and includes one month contribution from the Deepcore acquisition, which added 29 operating rigs to the fleet.

Morgans integrates Deepcore into its numbers, lifting FY20-22 operating earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 40%. While this acquisition does delay de-gearing the broker believes the market will back the larger business.

Speculative Buy maintained. Target is raised to 9.5c from 8.5c.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.035
If MSV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWL as Hold (3) -

A highly competitive market, large-scale deals and rotation to front book from back book pricing are coinciding with pressure on revenue margins. Ord Minnett reduces margin assumptions and lowers the company's FY25 margin estimates by -25%.

The broker remains positive on the sector, expecting upside from specialist flows. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $8.14 from $9.00.

Target price is $8.14 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: $0
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.82, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OSH as Underperform (5) -

The company has guided to around 8.4mtpa in 2020 because of turbine maintenance on one LNG train. Similar maintenance will be undertaken on the second train in 2021.

The magnitude of the maintenance now appears larger than previously expected and Credit Suisse believes PNG LNG may underperform for three out of the next four years.

Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $6.00 from $6.05 on the back of lower production, higher costs and lower LNG spot prices.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: minus $1.12 (current price is over target).
If OSH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.53, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OSH as Outperform (1) -

Oil Search's December quarter production was weaker than expected on lower crude volumes, but sales and revenues were marginally stronger, the broker notes. Maiden 2020 guidance suggests growth in volumes and a reduction in costs compared to 2019.

The broker believes the market remains overly cautious with regard the PNG LNG expansion ahead of major de-risking catalysts. Outperform retained, target falls to $8.00 from $8.20.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $0.88
If OSH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.53, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OSH as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the drop in the share price because of a softer quarterly result is overdone.

Guidance for 2020 is below estimates because of LNG maintenance at PNG LNG and slightly higher operating expenditure but this is not considered a longer-term driver of value.

The broker believes the stock is coming under pressure because of the strong move in oil prices, as consensus assumes an equity raising is required over time. The market is also concerned about the discussions in PNG regarding expansion.

Overweight rating, In-Line industry view and $8 target.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $0.88
If OSH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.53, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OSH as Hold (3) -

December quarter production was ahead of estimates although Ord Minnett believes other events have overshadowed the result.

This mainly stems from media commentary regarding the ongoing negotiations for P'nyang, highlighting the risk that an acceptable agreement may not be reached.

Hence, the broker remains cautious and retains a Hold rating. Target is lowered to $7.45 from $7.60.

Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $0.33
If OSH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.53, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OSH as Neutral (3) -

A drawing of inventory during the December quarter produced a 22% lift in sales volumes despite only a 3% increase in production. Production growth in 2020 is likely to be flat, UBS assesses.

There was no guidance on FEED (Front-End Engineering Design) for the PNG expansion as the agreement is still to be finalised. This is the remaining hurdle. The 2019/20 exploration program remains on track.

UBS maintains a Neutral rating and $7.60 target.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $0.48
If OSH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.53, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMD as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie has long maintained the mantra that ResMed's valuation, now 36.8x forward earnings and a 38% premium to medical device peers, ascribes limited medium-term risk in relation to reimbursement changes or the longer-term impact of competing technologies. Underperform retained.

Ahead of this week's result release, the broker has made minor adjustments to revenue and growth assumptions and currency. Target rises to $17.00 from $16.50.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $24.59 Difference: minus $7.59 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.09, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RMD as Buy (1) -

The first half results on January 31 are likely to reveal favourable industry dynamics and UBS expects another solid result. Round 3 bidding rates are due to be released in mid 2020 for implementation in January 2021.

The broker flags the potential for an increase in lead item pricing, albeit with associated declines in masks/accessory reimbursement. UBS has the Buy rating and US$150 target under review.

Current Price is $24.59. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $21.09, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SAR as Buy (1) -

December quarter production was ahead of expectations. Output for the quarter was a record 120,100 ounces. Thunderbox beat expectations because of higher throughput and grade.

The Kalgoorlie Superpit is tracking in line with FY20 guidance. Citi retains a Buy rating and $4.30 target.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.34
If SAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SAR as Outperform (1) -

Thunderbox led Saracen Minerals to a 6% beat on quarterly production expectation with costs in line, thanks to higher grades. Super Pit and Carosue Dam met forecasts.

The Super Pit acquisition has cemented the miner's medium term production growth, the broker notes, while the potential for an underground development offers upside. Outperform retained, target rises to $4.20 from $3.80.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.24
If SAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SAR as Accumulate (2) -

With one month of the Superpit co-ownership under its belt, the company has outlined production guidance of 500,000 ounces in FY20 and 600,000 ounces in FY21.

As the Carosue Dam operation is expanded, Ord Minnett believes the current steady-state rate will be closer to 700,000 ounces per annum.

This increases to 800,000 ounces per annum by FY24 as the Superpit accesses higher grades.

Accumulate rating and $4 target maintained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.04
If SAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SAR as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS initiates coverage on the stock with a Buy rating and $4.40 target following the Superpit acquisition, which has lifted investor interest in the company.

The broker assesses Saracen Mineral offers gold exposure while transforming in scale and growth opportunities. Gold production is set to grow to around 770,000 ounces by FY25 from 605,000 ounces in FY20.

The company acquired 50% of the Kalgoorlie Superpit last November for $1.1bn.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.44
If SAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGR as Outperform (1) -

Since its FY19 result, Star Entertainment has delivered a 23% return, the broker notes, 12% in excess of the ASX100. The broker expects the first half result to meet guidance and believes valuation is attractive at 9x forward earnings and a -17% discount to Crown Resorts.

Outperform retained, target rises to $4.75 from $4.65.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.66
If SGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGR as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett envisages a soft domestic outlook over the next 12 months amid weak consumer sentiment and a subdued earnings profile in Sydney.

The broker decreases operating earnings forecasts for FY20 by -0.3%, and by -2.6% for FY21.

Growth from the projects in Brisbane and the Gold Coast, coupled with disciplined capital allocation, are considered the main positives.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target reduced to $4.50 from $5.05.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.41
If SGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGR as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS assumes that the Sydney VIP market will grow by 50% while in the first year of Crown Sydney's ((CWN)) operations Star Entertainment will lose half of its VIP share to Crown. This is likely to result in a -25% reduction in VIP revenue.

The broker assumes the premium mass segment will grow by 20% and that Star Entertainment keeps 55% of this. The broker re-models assumptions and downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $4.50 from $5.20.

No material impact is assumed from the outbreak of the coronavirus at this stage although it is a risk.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.41
If SGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SYD as Sell (5) -

Citi notes Sydney Airport amassed 16.9m international passengers in 2019 of which 1.2m were going to or coming from China.

The broker also notes, while there is never an optimal time, the outbreak of the coronavirus immediately ahead of Chinese New Year could have a larger than normal impact.

The broker estimates 20-27% of Chinese visits to Sydney occur during February and March. The best case scenario is a -0.5% impact on operating earnings while the broker's bear case could be -5-7%.

Citi reduces 2019-21 operating earnings estimates by -0.3-2.6%. Sell rating maintained. Target is reduced to $6.94 from $7.06.

Target price is $6.94 Current Price is $8.38 Difference: minus $1.44 (current price is over target).
If SYD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.35, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYD as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie believes the impact of the coronavirus will be constrained to one quarter, as was the case with SARS. The risk is the impact lasts 12 months but given the response of the Chinese government this is considered low.

On that basis the broker suggests the sell-off means the stock is now offering value. Upgrade to Outperform. Target unchanged at $8.68.

Target price is $8.68 Current Price is $8.38 Difference: $0.3
If SYD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.35, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Sell (5) -

Treasury Wine has released first half results early, reporting adjusted earnings (EBITS) of $367m, up 8%. Citi suspects, given weak US earnings and commentary, there is likely to be double-digit downgrades to consensus forecasts for FY20 and FY21.

On the positive side, Asian margins expanded to 43%. On the negative side, volume in the Americas declined.

Citi believes uncertainty about the CEO transition and business in China and the US are likely to weigh on the stock. Citi retains a Sell rating and $15.60 target.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $12.51 Difference: $3.09
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.78, suggesting upside of 42.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Equal-weight (3) -

The first half result revealed a significant deterioration in the operating environment in the Americas amid reduced FY20/21 growth expectations.

Volume declines reflected weakness in commercial volumes because of the oversupply and proliferation of private-label offerings. Morgan Stanley notes the impact on profitability was also exacerbated by increased promotional activity by Treasury Wine.

Equal-weight rating and Cautious industry view maintained. Target is reduced to $15 from $17.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.51 Difference: $2.49
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.78, suggesting upside of 42.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

First half results were weaker than Ord Minnett expected. The company has downgraded FY20 earnings (EBITS) guidance to growth of 5-10% and provided FY21 guidance for growth of 10-15%.

Commercial challenges in the US drove the weak result. A strategic review has been announced to accelerate change in commercial operations.

Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Accumulate and lowers the target to $15 from $20.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.51 Difference: $2.49
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.78, suggesting upside of 42.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Treasury Wine has reduced FY20 guidance and reported earnings (EBIT) growth of 6% in the first half. The miss to expectations stems from a -26% decline in the Americas earnings, related to both execution and market issues.

UBS is particularly disappointed, given guidance was reaffirmed in October. FY20 earnings growth is now expected to be 5-10% versus prior forecasts for 15-20%. The broker reduces net profit estimates by -12% for FY20.

The company will undertake a strategic review relating to the optimisation of its internal operating model.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy, given the increased near-term uncertainty. Target is reduced to $18.00 from $20.50.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $12.51 Difference: $5.49
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.78, suggesting upside of 42.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

Cash flow was solid in the December quarter, Morgans notes. Guidance for annual recurring revenue has been upgraded to NZ$17.8m.

A major public screening program was signed during the quarter and more detail is expected shortly.

Morgans maintains a Speculative Buy (Add) rating and $2.17 target.

Target price is $2.17 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.3
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VUK as Outperform (1) -

Virgin Money delivered a largely in-line quarterly result, which given challenging market conditions is a respectable outcome, the broker suggests. While  volume growth was weak, margin trends appear supportive.

While the broker continues to see various headwinds, including merger risk, they appear to be reflected in the current share price. Outperform retained, target rises to $4.00 from $3.70.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.46
If VUK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WSA as Buy (1) -

Forrestania delivered on expectations in the December quarter. Shipments missed forecasts while Kambalda deliveries were affected from bushfire-related road closures.

The company has announced new offtake agreements with BHP Group ((BHP)) and Jinchuan, removing uncertainty around processing terms for Forrestania concentrate.

Citi revises FY20 earnings estimates down by -4% and maintains a Buy rating and $3.50 target.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.83
If WSA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WSA as Neutral (3) -

Production and costs were in line with expectations in the December quarter. Credit Suisse was disappointed, but not surprised, with the increasingly terminal outlook for the quickly-depleting Flying Fox operation, where reserves have only two more years left.

Some low grading strategy may add just 6-12 months. The need for Odysseus as a new cash flow source is increasingly important, in the broker's view. Neutral rating and $2.50 target maintained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WSA as Outperform (1) -

Western Areas posted a solid quarterly result, the broker suggests, with production and costs in line with expectations. New offtake agreements should result in higher nickel concentrate payabilities from February.

Development of Cosmos is proceeding, which the broker notes will extend the miner's production capacity beyond 2030. Outperform and $3.60 target retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.93
If WSA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WSA as Overweight (1) -

The company posted a consistent production report in the December quarter. Morgan Stanley observes Western Areas is on track to meet guidance and there is potential upside from the Odysseus project.

Overweight. Industry view is In-Line. Target is $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.53
If WSA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WSA as Add (1) -

The December quarter production and costs were in line with guidance. The commissioning of the underground main pump station and associated infrastructure at Odysseus has been successful and the underground mine rehabilitation is advancing.

New nickel concentrate offtake contracts include significantly improved commercial terms. Western Areas remains Morgans' preferred nickel exposure and an Add rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $3.23 from $3.39.

Target price is $3.23 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.56
If WSA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WSA as Hold (3) -

With rapidly declining mine life at Forrestania Ord Minnett already considers the Odysseus operation more important to valuation. This is on track but at an early stage and considerable work is yet to be completed.

The broker believes the stock is fairly priced, based on assumptions of US$9/lb for nickel. Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and $3.20 target.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.03
If WSA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources