Australian Broker Call
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April 23, 2018
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
Last Updated: 10:29 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| FBU - | FLETCHER BUILDING | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
Overnight Price: $25.53
Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -
The Eilers-Fantini slot survey reaffirms Macquarie's feedback regarding positive momentum in North America. While an improvement in competitor performance remains a risk the broker is yet to witness a material change.
Target is raised to $27.15 from $26.85. Outperform.
Target price is $27.15 Current Price is $25.53 Difference: $1.62
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.08, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 45.50 cents and EPS of 112.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.8, implying annual growth of 38.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 67.50 cents and EPS of 135.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.9, implying annual growth of 20.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Equal-weight (3) -
The impact on FY19 earnings from the fall-out from the Royal Commission is likely to be negligible, Morgan Stanley believes. Markets, on the other hand, are likely to be a bigger driver.
The broker notes risks to the outlook include future flows via the planner network and the potential for further regulatory intervention affecting fees.
Equal-weight and $5.75 target retained. Industry view: In line.
Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $1.45
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.7, implying annual growth of 15.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.1, implying annual growth of 7.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates AMP as Add (1) -
Regulatory risk has increased following the latest proceedings of the Royal Commission, Morgans observes. Interim CEO Mike Wilkins is considered a safe pair of hands and, while no board changes have been announced, Morgans does not rule these out going forward.
The broker will review numbers in more detail at the forthcoming first quarter fund flow update. Target is reduced to $4.94 from $5.82 to reflect the increased regulatory risks. Add rating maintained.
Target price is $4.94 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.64
If AMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.10 cents and EPS of 35.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.7, implying annual growth of 15.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 37.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.1, implying annual growth of 7.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
API AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES
Health & Nutrition
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Overnight Price: $1.42
Credit Suisse rates API as Neutral (3) -
First half results were in line with guidance. The short-term outlook remains challenging, Credit Suisse believes, and PBS revenue is expected to be under pressure as some manufacturers choose to by-pass wholesale distributors, going direct to pharmacies.
Converting independent pharmacies to the Priceline model should increase operating leverage, the broker suggests, but caution prevails in the current market conditions.
Neutral rating retained. Target reduced to $1.50 from $1.62.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.08
If API meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in August.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.36 cents and EPS of 10.95 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.60 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.35
Citi rates BOQ as Re-instate Coverage with Neutral (3) -
First half results were weaker than Citi expected and the broker reinstates coverage with a Neutral rating and $11 target, reduced from $13.
The stock has fallen around -17% over the year to date and the broker considers the first half results justified this underperformance.
The broker lowers the earnings trajectory to reflect the challenges from lower revenue and higher growth in costs.
Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.35 Difference: $0.65
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.94, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in August.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 88.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.4, implying annual growth of -6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 80.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.7, implying annual growth of -3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $16.90
Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley expects the investment yield on client balances will lag rising market yields. The broker also notes the US company register is shrinking -4% per annum so opportunities for carry trade are in decline.
Many investors appear to be extrapolating rising cash rates through to Computershare's investment yield, overstating the earnings upside in Morgan Stanley's view.
Hence, at peak multiples on late cycle earnings the broker considers the stock's risk/reward is unattractive. Underweight rating. Target is $13.50. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $16.90 Difference: minus $3.4 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.29, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 53.12 cents and EPS of 82.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 55.71 cents and EPS of 86.68 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.6, implying annual growth of 11.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FBU FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $5.77
UBS rates FBU as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
After the de-leveraging of the balance sheet through the $750m capital raising, UBS envisages less upside for equity holders and downgrades to Neutral from Buy. The price target is reduced to NZ$6.30 from NZ$7.60.
This primarily reflects the increase in share count but operating earnings estimates are also lowered by -2-4%. The broker considers the capital increase an expensive, but probably necessary, move to improve the company's ability to negotiate with the USPP debt holders.
Current Price is $5.77. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.74 cents and EPS of 51.23 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.31
Macquarie rates GEM as Neutral (3) -
New centres are forecast to increase 3-3.5% in 2018, still outpacing growth in demand. Macquarie expects the occupancy trend towards quality, those rated as centres of excellence, will continue.
The broker notes the stock has recently experienced a material de-rating but awaits evidence of a sustained improvement in market conditions to be more comfortable with the earnings outlook. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $2.65 from $3.30.
Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.34
If GEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 20.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 17.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.60 cents and EPS of 24.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of 19.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates GEM as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley believes, regardless of depressed earnings, the company is soundly positioned and at some point operating leverage and trading multiples will turn positive.
The broker notes the company has abandoned its EPS target of 40c per share by the end of 2019. Equal-weight. Target is $2.80. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.49
If GEM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 17.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of 19.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates GEM as Buy (1) -
The trading update was weaker than Ord Minnett expected, suggesting both occupancy and earnings will be lower than previous guidance, although short-term pain does not necessarily warrant a change in view.
The broker considers the current multiples are cheap, based on a reasonable mean reversion for occupancy and with the development book at only 10% of the target. A Buy rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $3.60 from $3.80.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $1.29
If GEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 21.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 17.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 26.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of 19.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates GEM as Buy (1) -
Industry supply for 2018 is expected to grow 3-3.5% and remain higher than growth in demand. As a result occupancy is not improving, counter to former expectations.
The broker considers the valuation undemanding and, while the downgrades have been disappointing, the share price reaction is overdone. UBS revises forecast to allow for softer occupancy in FY18 and incorporates no organic growth.
A Buy rating is maintained. Target is lowered to $2.75 from $3.95.
Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.44
If GEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 17.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 23.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of 19.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.43
Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -
The company has announced a 64% increase to reserves at Koolan Island. This has extended the mine life beyond five years.
Incorporating the changes to the mine plan and reserves upgrade reduces Macquarie's near-term forecasts for earnings. Net losses of -$5m and -$28m are expected in FY19 and FY20, respectively.
The broker believes the addition of around two years of mine life more than offsets weaker production and higher costs in the short term.
Outperform rating. Target raised to $0.60 from $0.55.
Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.17
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 2.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.7, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of -14.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MGX as Neutral (3) -
The company has announced an increase in reserves at Koolan Island, increasing the life of mine by around 40% to over five years. UBS notes the additional reserves do come with some costs, in order to enable access to the ore and for the purchase of mining equipment.
UBS believes Koolan Island could be a game changer if it can be delivered on time and budget. Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $0.46 from $0.44.
Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.03
If MGX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.7, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of -14.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $12.95
Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -
Back order and manufacturing issues have been resolved and Morgan Stanley expects a continuation of the robust re-supply sales of F20/N20, which has stabilised the margin and assisted positive revisions to earnings per share.
Upside is expected from improving operating leverage. Overweight. Target rises to US$99.50 from US$92.50. Industry view: In Line.
Current Price is $12.95. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $12.33, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.19 cents and EPS of 43.78 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.19 cents and EPS of 48.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.0, implying annual growth of 5.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates RMD as Hold (3) -
Ahead of the third quarter results, Ord Minnett reduces forecasts for earnings per share by -0.7% in FY18 and -1% in FY19, tempering sales growth and gross margin forecasts.
The broker maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $12.20 from $12.10.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $12.95 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.33, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.0, implying annual growth of 5.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.93
UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -
March quarter production was in line with UBS estimates for aluminium, coal and manganese alloy. Alumina production was -6% lower than expected because of maintenance activities at both Worsley and Brazil.
Production guidance is unchanged for all commodities except for Illawarra metallurgical coal, which is reduced by -9%, and Australian and South African manganese, increased by 6% and 5% respectively.
UBS maintains a Neutral rating and lifts the target to $3.70 from $3.40.
Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.23 cents and EPS of 32.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.23 cents and EPS of 33.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.0, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SYD SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $6.56
Macquarie rates SYD as Outperform (1) -
March 2018 traffic growth was 6.1% while international traffic was up 11.1%. Macquarie observes international continues to drive value and should be sustained as major carriers add capacity to Sydney in 2018.
Outperform rating and $6.85 target maintained.
Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $6.56 Difference: $0.29
If SYD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.50 cents and EPS of 18.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 15.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 20.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.3, implying annual growth of 12.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates SYD as Buy (1) -
Recent investor concern associated with Sydney Airport's international traffic performance appears to be misplaced, in Ord Minnett's view, as a strong rebound was evident in March.
International passenger growth was 11.1%, boosted by the timing of an early Easter. First quarter 2018 growth of 6.2% has been helped by recent capacity additions.
The broker maintains a Buy rating and $8.45 target.
Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $6.56 Difference: $1.89
If SYD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 15.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.3, implying annual growth of 12.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.34
Credit Suisse rates TAH as Outperform (1) -
While a price change in the first half may have had a positive impact, Credit Suisse does not perceive a long-term turnaround path for Trackside. Trackside is 8% of the pre-merger wagering EBITDA.
Credit Suisse expects a -7% organic drop in Trackside gross profit between FY17-20, acknowledging this is less negative than the -18% decline experienced from FY15-17.
Outperform maintained. Target is $5.20.
Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.86
If TAH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.27, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 16.68 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 22.52 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 32.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TLS TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED
Telecommunication
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Overnight Price: $3.08
Morgan Stanley rates TLS as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley retains a negative outlook for Telstra, based on the competition that is putting downward pressure on earnings and returns. Updating estimates to reflect changes to mobile forecasts, the broker reduces earnings per share by -3-5% for FY18-20.
The main area of risk is mobile, the company's most profitable business. On the broker's calculations mobile accounts for around $2 of the current share price. Target is reduced to $3.00 from $3.40. Underweight. Industry view In-Line.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.7, implying annual growth of -14.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 6.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| ALL | ARISTOCRAT LEISURE | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $25.53 |
| AMP | AMP | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.30 |
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $4.30 | ||
| API | AUS PHARMACEUTICAL IND | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.42 |
| BOQ | BANK OF QUEENSLAND | Re-instate Coverage with Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $10.35 |
| CPU | COMPUTERSHARE | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $16.90 |
| FBU | FLETCHER BUILDING | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $5.77 |
| GEM | G8 EDUCATION | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.31 |
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.31 | ||
| Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.31 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.31 | ||
| MGX | MOUNT GIBSON IRON | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.43 |
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.43 | ||
| RMD | RESMED | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $12.95 |
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $12.95 | ||
| S32 | SOUTH32 | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.93 |
| SYD | SYDNEY AIRPORT | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.56 |
| Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $6.56 | ||
| TAH | TABCORP HOLDINGS | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.34 |
| TLS | TELSTRA CORP | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.08 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 9 |
| 3. Hold | 9 |
| 5. Sell | 2 |
Monday 23 April 2018
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