Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates AAI as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Alcoa benefits from rising aluminium prices, Ord Minnett reminds investors, following Middle East conflict disruptions, with regional smelter outages tightening global supply.

The broker highlights aluminium prices on the LME have risen around 12% since the conflict began, while the US Midwest premium reached a record high of US$1.10/lb.

The broker observes Alcoa holds minimal direct exposure to the troubled region, aside from a 2% stake in the Maaden operation in Saudi Arabia and alumina shipments into the Middle East.

Ord Minnett estimates a US$100/t rise in aluminium prices would increase Alcoa's earnings (EBITDA) by around US$237m, highlighting strong operating leverage.

Ord Minnett raises its recommendation to Buy from Accumulate on valuation grounds and retains its target price of $103.

Target price is $103.00 Current Price is $85.77 Difference: $17.23
If AAI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALK as Buy (1) -

Alkane Resources’ Tomingley operation offers a long-life gold asset with high margins and potential production growth, Ord Minnett highlights after a recent site visit.

It's noted the mine produces around 80koz of gold annually at costs (AISC) near -$2,380/oz with a mine life exceeding 10 years.

The broker also points to growth potential once the Newell Highway diversion completes in July 2027, enabling open pit ore from San Antonio to enter the mill.

Softer oxide ore is expected to lift mill throughput and increase production by around 10koz annually from FY28 with moderate capital investment.

Ord Minnett raises its target price to $2.10 from $2.05 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.565
If ALK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CAR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie points out a key debate for classifieds is whether they are long-term winners or losers in the AI battle, suspecting it is too early to call although in the short term they are all winners, benefiting from improved products and capabilities.

Classifieds online have materially underperformed since late August 2025 with the share prices down -36% on average.

The broker suspects there are ongoing downside risk to earnings considering further rate hikes are likely along with a strengthening Australian dollar.

With a lack of identifiable re-rating catalysts, Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and $28.50 target for CAR Group.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $25.84 Difference: $2.66
If CAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.54, suggesting upside of 39.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Citi reviews ASX-listed diversified financials and expects the Iran conflict to prove relatively short-lived, with markets likely returning to a risk-on stance.

The broker believes investor focus should soon shift back to sector fundamentals as geopolitical volatility fades and risk appetite rebuilds across equity markets.

Excluding non-banks, the analysts' order of preference is Challenger, AMP ((AMP)), Generation Development ((GDG)) and Computershare ((CPU)), all carrying Buy ratings.

Neutral-rated Perpetual ((PPT) and ASX ((ASX)) rank lower in the broker’s order of preference.

The $10 target is retained for Challenger.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $7.60 Difference: $2.4
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COH as Buy (1) -

Cochlear is due to start its US pivotal trial in April for a total implantable cochlear implant while Envoy Medical expects to implant the final patient from its trial this month. UBS points out this puts Cochlear 12 months behind, with the risk that the early availability of the Envoy system could divert demand.

The broker highlights, while direct device comparisons are inherently difficult because of patient variability, hearing outcomes from what is likely to be patient preference for a fully implantable device, will be closely scrutinised.

The stock is trading at a decade low despite being about to make market share gains driven by its new Nexa implant. UBS sticks with a Buy rating as a result and a $302 target.

Target price is $302.00 Current Price is $180.17 Difference: $121.83
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $237.24, suggesting upside of 29.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DNL as Buy (1) -

Dyno Nobel has agreed to sell Phosphate Hill for nominal $1 with up to $100m deferred consideration, Citi notes. Completion is expected in the September quarter of FY26.

The broker highlights Dyno Nobel is now a pure explosives exposure after the divestment, with improved Americas trading expected to offset currency strength against the US dollar.

Management also provided a 1H FY26 (september year-end) update.

Phosphate Hill earnings underperformed amid flooding, gas supply interruptions and higher sulphur prices, producing around $33m of earnings (EBIT) in the first five months.

This outcome implies half-year earnings of between $39-40m, compared to Citi's $78m forecast. There is no change to Explosives earnings guidance for FY26 of between $460-500m.

Citi retains a Buy rating and target of $4.00

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.94
If DNL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DNL as Hold (3) -

Dyno Nobel has agreed to sell its Phosphate Hill fertiliser operation for nominal $1, with the company funding around -$126m in remediation costs.

This outcome is disappointing suggests the broker, implying around -$193m less post-tax cash flow than prior forecasts despite potential earn-outs of up to $100m.

More positively, it's noted the divestment frees up management to focus on the core explosives division following operational and regulatory challenges at the fertiliser asset.

Explosives earnings (EBIT) guidance of $460-$500m remains unchanged, supported by strong North American demand and improved ammonium nitrate pricing, the broker comments.

Target price reduced to $3.20 from $3.45. Hold rating maintained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.14
If DNL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JIN as Neutral (3) -

Citi has a Neutral rating for Jumbo Interactive and a new target of $9.90, down from $11.80.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: $1.3
If JIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.68, suggesting upside of 51.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NIC as Buy (1) -

Nickel Industries faces rising sulphur costs following the Middle East conflict, Bell Potter notes, with sulphur prices rising to US$500/t from around US$250/t.

A doubling in sulphur prices cuts the broker's 2026 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by around -15% to US$571m.

The company's diversified operations limit risk, highlight the analysts, with Hengjaya Mine and Rotary Kiln Electric Furnace production not exposed to sulphur input costs.

The broker notes a 5% nickel price increase (not yet included in forecasts) linked to supply concerns would offset higher sulphur costs and lift earnings around 4% above the base case.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and target of $1.45.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.57
If NIC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 36.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

Orica has today provided a first-half business update (September year end), with management anticipating 1H underlying earnings (EBIT) slightly above the prior year of $488m.

Projected earnings exceeds Macquarie's forecast for $483m and potentially consensus' $493m too.

In an early assessment, the analyst believes strong demand for premium blasting technologies supported the performance. It's thought a stronger Australian dollar and weaker Indonesian coal demand weighed on Blasting Solutions.

Digital Solutions and Specialty Mining Chemicals earnings growth of around 20% and 15% was driven by continued adoption of digital products and strength in the Axis Mining Technology business, the broker explains. 

Macquarie had forecast 25% growth for each segment.

Macquarie highlights a cost-out program targeting more than $100m in annual savings over three years, supporting longer-term earnings growth alongside strong gold and copper markets.

There was no explicit affirmation of the FY26 earnings growth expectation. Target $25.95. Outperform.

Target price is $25.95 Current Price is $21.66 Difference: $4.29
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.51, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie points out a key debate for classifieds is whether they are long-term winners or losers in the AI battle, suspecting it is too early to call although in the short term they are all winners, benefiting from improved products and capabilities.

Classifieds online have materially underperformed since late August 2025 with the share prices down -36% on average.

The broker suspects there are ongoing downside risk to earnings considering further rate hikes are likely along with a strengthening Australian dollar.

With a lack of identifiable re-rating catalysts, Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and $200 target for REA Group.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $168.88 Difference: $31.12
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $228.23, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Underweight (5) -

Post quantitative guidance from UK peer Spire Healthcare, Morgan Stanley lowers Ramsay Health Care's earnings forecasts for UK hospital operations, which results in group EPS estimates slipping -3.6% for FY26.

UK competitor Spire indicated guidance for UK NHS revenue to fall by -25% y/y due to reduced activity. Committed funding for 2Q-4Q2026 remains unconfirmed, with Spire anticipating a fall of around -5% to -10% y/y.

For Ramsay, UK NHS volumes are circa 75% of total admissions for the operator in FY26.

Target price slips to $35.60 from $35.70. No change in Underweight rating. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $35.60 Current Price is $41.76 Difference: minus $6.16 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $40.67, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEK as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie remains cautious about Seek given the near-term risks to advertising volumes and a lack of identifiable catalysts, unsure whether the company is a long-term winner or loser in the AI battle.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $18.50 from $19.50.

The broker suspects the Australian job market will weaken, impacted by rate hikes, automation and AI risks in certain occupations.

The impact is expected to be gradual rather than rapid with Macquarie assessing, based on International Labour Organisation research, that around 65% of the workforce has minimal/no exposure to automation and AI risks given physical requirements such as health, teachers and labourers.

Around 8% has a high automation and AI risk, such as IT, communications, personal assistant and clerical roles.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $16.41 Difference: $2.09
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.70, suggesting upside of 56.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources