Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates AIS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Management at Aeris Resources hosted a site visit at the Tritton copper operations (following Morgans’ July visit to the Cracow gold mine), giving the broker confidence in operational improvements and exploration potential.

Adjustments to the broker's forecasts now assume Constellation starts in FY27, with higher copper and gold grades and stronger gold recoveries, lifting valuation and the earnings outlook.

Tritton has demonstrated over 2mtpa throughput capacity, highlight the analysts, positioning it as the largest plant in the region, with scope for higher output and lower unit costs if further exploration success supports the mill.

Increased drilling of 80,000m in FY26 at the Constellation deposit at Tritton is expected to support mine life extension, while productivity gains are delivering an operational reset.

The broker lifts its target price to 43c from 31c and retains a Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.1
If AIS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.34, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOE as Hold (3) -

Boss Energy has put together a technical team and engaged with ISR (in-situ recovery) experts to assess the worse than expected geological continuity at the eastern end of its Honeymoon project, Ord Minnett details.

The work is expected to be done in the December 2025 quarter, with management accelerating its drilling program in mid-September which will go on for around seven to nine months.

The analyst anticipates an updated technical report can be released by the end of 2025.

Ord Minnett has no investment case for the company as the economic outcome of the uranium resource for Honeymoon remains unknown at this stage. Hold and $2.10 target.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.36
If BOE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 35.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DOW as Accumulate (2) -

Downer EDI has secured a $3.1bn Department of Defence contract to provide property and asset services across eight major bases in NSW, the ACT and Queensland.

Ord Minnett notes the six-year deal, with up to four years of extensions, is worth around $510m annually and represents a $70-110m uplift on the existing contract, excluding any upside from variable works.

The analyst suggests margins in the first year are likely to be narrower than those achieved at the end of the current contract cycle, which expires in January 2026.

As a result, Ord Minnett has cut its FY26 and FY27 earnings forecasts by -1.2% and -0.4%, respectively, though its FY28 forecast is lifted 3%. The target price rises to $7.90 from $7.70. Accumulate rating maintained.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.13 Difference: $0.77
If DOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.68, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GHM as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Following on from the initiation of coverage earlier this week, Shaw and Partners notes Golden Horse Minerals reported strong RC drilling results at its Hopes Hill Project in WA, including intercepts up to 3m at 23.8 g/t gold.

A second diamond rig will soon lift total rigs to four, accelerating drilling and freeing RC capacity for regional targets.

Mineralisation is free-milling with excellent recoveries averaging 96.7% and supported by nearby infrastructure.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 81c.

Target price is $0.81 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.24
If GHM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GQG as Buy (1) -

UBS notes GQG Partners’ funds under management (FUM) rose 0.6% in August to US$167.7bn, slightly below the broker's forecasts, with net outflows of -US$1.8bn offset by market gains.

This marks a second consecutive month of outflows, highlights the analyst, following -US$1.6bn in July, with weakness concentrated in Global and US strategies. Elsewhere, the International strategy has remained resilient with small inflows.

UBS allows for around -9% of FUM outflows in the 12 months to June 2026 but notes an attractive dividend yield provides support. Index inclusion in the ASX200 and ASX300 from September is also expected to be beneficial.

 The broker lowers its target price to $2.25 from $2.35 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.54
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.52, suggesting upside of 49.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUM as Buy (1) -

Humm Group’s FY25 result showed assets under management (AUM) up around 10% year-on-year, which Ord Minnett feels is strong given pressures in the SME and consumer sectors.

Volumes fell around -5% in H2 compared to H1, while the net interest margin slipped -10bps to 5.4%. More positively, further cost efficiencies reduced the cost-to-income ratio to 51% from 52.4% in the first half, highlight the analysts.

Credit losses were slightly above Ord Minnett's expectation at -1.7%, while commercial loans are seeing elevated losses as the book seasons, a trend expected to continue in 1H26 before easing.

No further update was provided on the non-binding indicative offer from The Abercrombie Group, with the board seeking a refined proposal by mid-September.

No change to Buy rating (the broker considers the stock inexpensive) or 81c target.

Target price is $0.81 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.16
If HUM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IFN as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Morgans has initiated coverage of Infragreen Group with a Buy rating and target price of $1.30.

The company is a diversified infrastructure platform with stakes in waste recovery, metal recycling, renewable energy, and peaking power.

The broker notes near-term growth will mainly come from strong organic growth in the solar panel installation business, with additional upside potential from inorganic initiatives. 

FY25 pro forma EBITDA was $18.6m, beating forecast by 2% with strong free cash flow of $8.5m showing portfolio strength.

The balance sheet is strengthened from $40m IPO, providing capacity for organic expansion and bolt-on acquisitions, the report concludes.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.21
If IFN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Equal-weight (3) -

Some upside risk to for Macquarie Group's FY26 is possible according to Morgan Stanley on the back of the rebound in capital markets in the September quarter, including announced M&A up 33% and completed M&A up 37% on the prior year with North America up 99%.

The analyst highlights the sale of the northern hemisphere public markets business would generate around $200m or 5% to its net profit after tax forecast for FY26.

Uncertainty around renewables and commodities continues, and while capital markets are more positive, much of the uplift is viewed as already discounted in the stock price.

Equal-weight. Target unchanged at $216. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $216.00 Current Price is $219.91 Difference: minus $3.91 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $221.77, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PRN as Buy (1) -

Perenti secured a $300m underground mining services contract at Ramelius Resources' ((RMS)) Dalgaranga project for four years, with one year extension potential.

The key takeaway for Citi is the gap to revenue and EBITA left by the loss of Zone 5 contract has now been filled. Additionally, the new contract is capital-light, requiring only -$16m of growth capex in FY26.

The broker believes work-in-hand could be as large as $6bn, with further opportunities at Cowal, Geita, and Red Chris.

The company also has balance sheet and capex flexibility to take on new contracts and generate sustained free cash.

Buy. Target unchanged at $2.55.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: $0.05
If PRN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SEK as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reaffirms its Overweight rating and $32.50 target price on Seek post FY25 earnings and FY26 which supported the broker's upbeat investment case, including increased confidence on costs and cash conversion.

The analyst believes the market is underestimating the resilience in achieving double digit price/yield growth and with improved cost management the anticipated 3-year EPS leverage.

Morgan Stanley forecasts a base case of 11% revenue growth, 19% earnings (EBITDA) and 25% EPS growth in FY26 and a 3-year CAGR of 25% growth versus REA Group ((REA)) at 20% and CAR Group ((CAR)) at 13%.

Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $27.15 Difference: $5.35
If SEK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.44, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Integrated grower, processor and marketer of almonds, Select Harvests is benefiting from rising prices, with Bell Potter noting a 26% rebound in the Stratmarkets Almond Index to around US$3.11/lb.

In Australian dollar terms, prices reached around $10.35/kg, a three-month high and up 19% year-on-year, while major input costs in water and fertiliser remain broadly unchanged, note the analysts.

The broker points to the three-month weather outlook for above-average rainfall during a key development window, with pollination across South Australian orchards described as strong.

Year-to-date average pricing, after accounting for the hedge position, implies to Bell Potter FY25 pricing of around $10.15/kg before Select Harvests’ market premiums.

Bell Potter increases its FY25, FY26 and FY27 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 4%, 53% and 52%, respectively, and the broker's target price lifts to $5.45 from $5.30. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $1.6
If SHV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.47, suggesting upside of 28.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SSM as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights Service Stream has secured long-awaited defence contracts, marking a new revenue stream and diversification. The contract size surprised the broker, $1.6bn over the initial six-year term, adding meaningful upside.

No EBITDA margin is expected in FY26 (zero margin), but the broker believes mid-single digit margins are possible after ramp-up, given the company's existing capabilities.

The broker already has a positive view on the stock on the back of a robust balance sheet and potential for telco volumes to surprise on the upside.

Buy. Target rises to $2.65 from $2.45 following upgrades to EPS forecasts.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $0.33
If SSM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SSM as Outperform (1) -

Service Stream has secured the Defence Property and Asset Services contract for both South Australia and the Northern Territory, following a multi-year tendering process. 

The value is $1.6bn over six years, with two extension options to a maximum of 10 years.

Macquarie highlights the contract exceeded expectations in both scope and value and represents an incremental 10% uplift to its FY27 revenue forecast, which was at $2.6bn previously.

The operations commence in February 2026, requiring mobilisation of around 350 employees and contractors. The broker expects FY26 contribution to be minimal, with FY27 margins to come at the lower end of group averages at around 5%.

The broker believes the company is well-positioned to capture incremental works like minor capex  beyond base services, supporting medium-term revenue/margin upside.

Outperform. Target lifted to $2.70 from $2.42.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $0.38
If SSM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SSM as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Service Stream has secured two Defence Base Services contracts for South Australia and Northern Territory worth $1.6bn over 6 years. The contracts begins Feb 2026 and are extendable to a maximum 10 years.

The broker highlights the contracts are EPS accretive with minimal FY26 earnings impact due to mobilisation costs. FY27 EBITDA forecast lifted by 8% and EPS by 11%.

Importantly, defence adds a new, large growth vertical to the company, diversifying away from telecommunications and highlighting operating leverage, commentary points out.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. Target rises to $2.57 from $2.35.

Target price is $2.57 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $0.25
If SSM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VNT as Outperform (1) -

The long-awaited Defence Estate Management contracts related to Living and Working Services (LWS), and Property and Asset Services (PAS) have been announced. 

Ventia Services secured PAS contracts across WA, Victoria and Tasmania but lost in NA and South Australia to Service Stream ((SSM)), which isn't a surprise for Macquarie. The company also won LWS contract in NT, Victoria and Tasmania.

The broker notes the contract totals $700m annually vs $460m currently, driven by annual indexation and likely higher volumes/spend. Importantly, the broker highlights the announcements confirm no contagion from ACCC proceedings. 

No change to FY25 EPS forecast, but FY26 trimmed by -0.8% and FY27 upgraded by 0.3%.

Outperform. Target unchanged at $5.55.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $0.52
If VNT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.42, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VNT as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett reckons the total value of contracts awarded by the Department of Defence to three companies, Downer EDI, Service Stream and Ventia Services, is higher than the headline $7.4bn due to variable works provisions.

Ventia secured $2.7bn contracts, including Living and Working Services in Tasmania, NT and Victoria, and Property and Asset Services in WA, Victoria and Tasmania.

The broker expects a thinner margin in year one but a pickup from year two. FY25 EPS forecast unchanged, but FY27 lifted by 1.6%.

Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target rises to $5.25 from $5.20 (was $4.45 in February).

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $0.22
If VNT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.42, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources