Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AEL as Outperform (1) -

Woodside Energy ((WDS)), the operator and 90% owner of the Minerva field (offshore from Port Campbell in Victoria), has advised Amplitude Energy decommissioning costs have more than doubled since the November 2024 estimate.

Macquarie now forecasts net debt will peak at $327m in the 1H of FY28, later than previously expected. The broker incorporates the increase, with no offset assumed from contingencies.

Outperform retained. Target price slips to 28c from 30c after the analyst allows for an additional -$24m cost at Minerva and updates the share count following the conversion of performance rights.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.07
If AEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Buy (1) -

Auckland International Airport announced the Commerce Commission’s decision, which will require the company to reduce its aeronautical returns to 7.82% from 8.73%, slightly below Citi’s expectations.

On balance, once the analyst accounts for current assumptions around passenger numbers, Auckland International Airport’s earnings were already estimated to be lower than the regulatory forecasts, the broker explains.

Citi points to the positive outcome of the Commerce Commission approving the company’s capex plan.

Buy rating confirmed. Citi sees good value at current levels given the expected double-digit earnings (EBITDA) growth out to 2030. Target NZ$9.80.

Current Price is $7.40. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

As part of the New Zealand Commerce Commission's final PSE4 aeronautical pricing decision, the regulator concluded Auckland International Airport was over-earning by between NZ$150-227m, observes Macquarie.

This finding prompted the company to commit to an average -11% reduction in aeronautical charges across FY26-FY27.

The broker believes this swift pricing adjustment reflects well on the regulatory regime and supports a target return of 7.82% for PSE4, down from the Airport's prior 8.73% target.

This change led Macquarie to cut its FY26/FY27 EPS forecasts by -14%, reflecting lower aeronautical revenue and earnings.

Target price falls to NZ$8.69 from NZ$9.14. Outperform maintained.

Current Price is $7.40. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AIS as Buy (1) -

Aeris Resources' updated Mineral Resource Estimate for the Constellation copper-gold deposit showed an increase in total resource to 7.6Mt, including a solid lift in the Indicated category to 5.3Mt. The Indicated category now consists of 70% of the total resource, giving potential for conversion to Probable reserves.

Bell Potter reckons the MRE update is a solid one with total tonnes up 13%, contained copper up 24% and contained gold rising 28%, and has modelled higher grades and production in its forecasts from FY27.

The broker lifted EPS forecasts for FY25-27 by 3%, 14%, and 46% respectively on upgraded production forecast and higher gold prices.

Target price rises to 33c from 30c. Buy retained.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.13
If AIS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 38.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APA as Outperform (1) -

The recent Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) annual report supports APA Group's East Coast Grid (ECG) expansion, highlights Macquarie. It's felt the expansion is a politically favourable and economically superior alternative to a gas import terminal.

The broker sees strong political support for maintaining domestic gas prices below international parity, regardless of the election outcome.

APA's approach ensures Qld/NT can supply southern demand, which when combined with government policy, avoids import parity, explains the analyst.

Management is considering divestments of the Victorian Transmission System (VTS) and renewable assets. Macquarie believes a partial VTS sale could unlock circa $2.5bn pre-tax, while the renewable portfolio may yield around $1.15bn. 

The $8.14 target and Outperform rating are maintained.

Target price is $8.14 Current Price is $7.90 Difference: $0.24
If APA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.81, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley's analysis shows interest rate futures volume on ASX rose 36% y/y in March, which would translate to 28.9% y/y for the March quarter, assuming it reflects total futures volumes.

This would be significantly higher than the 9% y/y consensus forecast for 2H25. The broker notes another positive was the growth was led by longer-duration 5-yr and 10-yr volume, which are higher-margin products.

The broker estimates every 5bps rise in volumes will boost FY25 underlying net profit by 1%.

Underweight. Target unchanged at $56.15. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $56.15 Current Price is $65.14 Difference: minus $8.99 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $64.18, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Sell (5) -

UBS points out the "deep concerns" the RBA and ASIC have outlined in a letter to the ASX regarding operational risk management following the CHESS settlement problems on December 20, 2024.

The broker expects a more intense regulatory process in terms of oversight and reporting for the ASX from the authorities, which will boost near-term costs.

ASIC has directed management to appoint an external expert within 42 days to review CHESS and report back within 150 days of the appointment.

UBS notes FY25 cost guidance of 6–9% was maintained at the 1H25 results, though the technical review is likely to be more costly in FY26.

No change to the broker’s EPS estimates. Sell rating and $66 target price unchanged.

Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $65.14 Difference: $0.86
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $64.18, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

Citi views the potential for Accent Group to run Sports Direct in Australia via a joint venture with Frasers Group as a significant earnings opportunity for the company.

Analysis suggests that, under one scenario, there could be up to 11% upside to Accent’s FY24 earnings (EBITDA) if Sports Direct were to achieve just one-third of Rebel’s store network, the broker explains.

Target price $2.57 and Buy rating.

Target price is $2.57 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.775
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.51, suggesting upside of 40.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

Citi describes varying feedback from US dealers, underscoring the differing trading conditions and competitive landscape in the US market.

The broker highlights positive feedback from RVTrader, while feedback on CycleTrader was negative, and makes minor earnings downgrades due to near-term macro headwinds and increased investment.

On the back of positive commentary from Boats Group, Citi sees stronger growth from this segment. Target price slips to $42 from $43.40.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $31.49 Difference: $10.51
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.40, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's analysis of FY24/2024 executive pay vs total shareholder return (TSR) found some positive alignment but weak correlation, likely because of commodity price impacts on the stock.

This can pose challenges in aligning leadership pay with long-term value delivery, the broker reckons, as external factors can lead to significant TSR swings.

On Deterra Royalties, the broker is cautious on the potential acquisition of Trident Royalties' assets portfolio.

Equal-weight. Target price $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.60 Difference: $0.3
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's analysis of FY24/2024 executive pay vs total shareholder return (TSR) found some positive alignment but weak correlation, likely because of commodity price impacts on the stock.

This can pose challenges in aligning leadership pay with long-term value delivery, the broker reckons, as external factors can lead to significant TSR swings.

On Evolution Mining, the broker believes there's an opportunity at Red Lake and Northparkes, but this is fairly priced in.

Equal-weight. Target price $5.95

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: minus $1.16 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting downside of -15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HLS as Hold (3) -

Following Healius' investor day presentation, Morgans lowered revenue and EBITDA estimates in pathology, noting volumes are moderating in Queensland and NSW due to the impact of cyclone Alfred.

The broker believes the success of the company's T27 plan looks challenging with only 30% of the milestones completed so far, and over $110m of efficiencies required to meet the goal.

The broker notes the company will pay a 41.3c fully franked dividend from the proceeds of Lumus sale but has removed dividends in the forecast period until consistent earnings are delivered.

Target price cut to $1.32 from $1.35. Hold retained.

Target price is $1.32 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: minus $0.075 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett upgrades Incitec Pivot, to be renamed Dyno Nobel tomorrow, to Buy from Accumulate with an unchanged target price of $3.45.

The broker notes the company has pointed to extreme weather across Australia, with evolving dry conditions across the southern part of the country and wet weather in Qld.

The adverse conditions experienced are expected to impact 1H25 earnings from explosives and fertilisers.

Management also pointed to issues from wet weather affecting scheduled maintenance at its Moranbah ammonium nitrate plant in Qld.

The analyst envisages the Dyno Nobel business will recover lost volumes in 2H25.

Ord Minnett lowers EPS estimates by -2% in FY25 and -3% in FY26.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.55 Difference: $0.9
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating on James Hardie Industries following the proposed acquisition of Azek, which has triggered an -18% sell-off in James Hardie shares.

The broker views the deal as dilutive to shareholder returns and sees limited upside from commercial synergies, assuming only 50% are realised in forecasts.

While cost synergies appear credible, cross-sell opportunities via contractors and new builds are likely difficult to activate, suggests the analyst.

Macquarie is also cautious on the efficacy of Azek's trim product and points to distributor complexity and stock keeping units (SKU) overload as barriers to integration.

The broker lowers its target price to $40.20 from $44.00 on reduced North America earnings forecasts.

Target price is $40.20 Current Price is $38.48 Difference: $1.72
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $53.60, suggesting upside of 44.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LM8 as Buy (1) -

Lunnon Metals has added Koombana as a new gold prospect in Kambalda, Shaw and Partners notes.

This follows earlier results from Lady Herial, Guiding Star, Hustler, and Defiance West. All four RC holes at Koombana hit shallow gold, including 2m at 5.20g/t and 29m at 0.72g/t, the broker highlights.

Lunnon is targeting near-term cash flow from Lady Herial, and Gold Fields has waived its pre-emptive rights, allowing negotiations for processing at the Lefroy plant.

A resource is expected in H1 2025, with mining possible before the September quarter. At current prices, 15–20koz could deliver $70–90m gross cash. Lunnon had $19.5m at December-end.

Target price of 60c and Buy rating are retained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.38
If LM8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 173% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Light & Wonder is facing a liability of up to -US$70-85m, notes Bell Potter, after Aristocrate Leisure ((ALL)) stepped up the legal battle with a wider complaint.

The broader claim for misappropriated trade secrets now includes Light & Wonder's Jewel of the Dragon game from the initial Dragon Train. 

Bell Potter highlights Aristocrat is "extremely likely" to succeed in its claim and the company could be liable for the US$70-85m EBITDA generated so far.

The broker also notes the recent fall in US consumer sentiment could have an impact on the company as operators may pull back on slot floor capex.

Target price cut to $197 from $205. Buy maintained.

Target price is $197.00 Current Price is $139.87 Difference: $57.13
If LNW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $202.60, suggesting upside of 45.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Citi explains Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) altered its claim in the trade secret misappropriation case against Light & Wonder on March 14 to include Jewel of the Dragon and the re-release of Dragon Train.

Light & Wonder has responded and is withdrawing around 300 Jewel of the Dragon units leased in North America, versus around 2,200 Dragon Train units removed previously, the broker details.

Citi maintains a Buy rating with a target price of $200.00 and does not view this removal as material to earnings.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $139.87 Difference: $60.13
If LNW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $202.60, suggesting upside of 45.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MEK as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans notes Meeka Metals' Murchison Gold Project is progressing well, with key infrastructure installed, and the company is on track for first gold in mid-2025.

Target price lifted to 25c from 23c on higher spot gold prices. Speculative Buy maintained.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.095
If MEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MM8 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans notes Medallion Metals has received offtake proposals and project financing offers up to $50m for the Ravensthorpe Gold Project.

The broker thinks the offtake terms are more favorable than what the company indicated in the scoping study and it would be a good outcome as it reduces the equity needed to bring the project into production.

The company's proposed acquisition of IGO Ltd's ((IGO)) Forrestania is progressing well, and the broker is more confident of a favorable outcome.

Target price to lifted to 41c from 32c on higher gold price forecasts. Speculative Buy maintained.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.155
If MM8 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NIC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's analysis of FY24/2024 executive pay vs total shareholder return (TSR) found some positive alignment but weak correlation, likely because of commodity price impacts on the stock.

This can pose challenges in aligning leadership pay with long-term value delivery, the broker reckons, as external factors can lead to significant TSR swings.

On Nickel Industries, the broker believes a significantly positive catalyst for the stock would be payables returning to its 5-year average.

Overweight. Target price $1.00.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.405
If NIC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.15, suggesting upside of 92.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's analysis of FY24/2024 executive pay vs total shareholder return (TSR) found some positive alignment but weak correlation, likely because of commodity price impacts on the stock.

This can pose challenges in aligning leadership pay with long-term value delivery, the broker reckons, as external factors can lead to significant TSR swings.

On Northern Star Resources, the broker sees an opportunity to develop resources at Fimiston Underground.

Equal-weight. Target price $18.40.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $18.32 Difference: $0.08
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.85, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter cut Paladin Energy's production estimate for 2H by -48% on lower output and grades, after heavy rainfall disrupted mining operations and processing of stockpiled ore.

The company withdrew its FY25 production guidance, and the broker notes lower production vs guidance would mean shortfall to cover sales contracts. For now, the broker assumes there will be no spot purchases but notes it's a downside risk.

Lower production estimates and higher costs have led to a widening in the broker's FY25 net loss forecast to -US$37m from -US$9m.

Target price cut to $6.30 from $11.00. Buy retained.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.11 Difference: $1.19
If PDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.89, suggesting upside of 105.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's analysis of FY24/2024 executive pay vs total shareholder return (TSR) found some positive alignment but weak correlation, likely because of commodity price impacts on the stock.

This can pose challenges in aligning leadership pay with long-term value delivery, the broker reckons, as external factors can lead to significant TSR swings.

The broker notes lithium and rutile were the worst performers, leading to negative TSR for Pilbara Minerals, but CEO remuneration was in its top half list due to production run-rate and sustainability outcomes.

Overweight. Target price $2.75.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $1.065
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 61.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's analysis of FY24/2024 executive pay vs total shareholder return (TSR) found some positive alignment but weak correlation, likely because of commodity price impacts on the stock.

This can pose challenges in aligning leadership pay with long-term value delivery, the broker reckons, as external factors can lead to significant TSR swings.

The broker notes Rio Tinto looks prominent with high remuneration vs TSR, as CEO pay is also linked to the company's market cap.

Overweight. Target price $126.

Target price is $126.00 Current Price is $115.49 Difference: $10.51
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $125.67, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's analysis of FY24/2024 executive pay vs total shareholder return (TSR) found some positive alignment but weak correlation, likely because of commodity price impacts on the stock.

This can pose challenges in aligning leadership pay with long-term value delivery, the broker reckons, as external factors can lead to significant TSR swings.

On Regis Resources, the broker notes the company is set to generate free cash flow yields for FY25 but this is already priced in.

Equal-weight. Target price $3.35.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting downside of -12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's analysis of FY24/2024 executive pay vs total shareholder return (TSR) found some positive alignment but weak correlation, likely because of commodity price impacts on the stock.

This can pose challenges in aligning leadership pay with long-term value delivery, the broker reckons, as external factors can lead to significant TSR swings.

The broker believes South32 has the potential to increase shareholder returns by generating significant cash.

Overweight. Target price $3.85.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.22 Difference: $0.63
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley's analysis of FY24/2024 executive pay vs total shareholder return (TSR) found some positive alignment but weak correlation, likely because of commodity price impacts on the stock.

This can pose challenges in aligning leadership pay with long-term value delivery, the broker reckons, as external factors can lead to significant TSR swings.

On Sandfire Resources, the broker sees a downside to its price target as the market has more than priced in catalysts like energy price rise and costs improvement at Matsa.

Underweight. Target price $9.25.

Target price is $9.25 Current Price is $10.36 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.62, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Following a recent site tour of Select Harvests' orchards, Bell Potter believes there's upside risk to the FY25-28 earnings forecast.

The broker cut its production estimate for FY25 as the previous underinvestment works through this year but reckons this also means upside risk to FY27 production.

Almond prices have risen 10% since the company's guidance, prompting the analyst to upgrade forecasts for FY26-28 but there's also a corresponding increase in cost estimates. The broker notes the company's initiatives to maximise returns are delivering to plan.

Buy. Target unchanged at $5.80.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $0.83
If SHV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights the AFR report that infers Frasers Group will announce a joint venture with Accent Group ((AX1)) to roll out Sports Direct stores across Australia. Accent confirmed they are in discussions at this stage.

The broker notes the size and scale of Sports Direct, with over 810 stores globally and recently announced plans for 350 stores in South East Asia.

Further details are needed, but Citi expects this would be very competitive for Rebel and supports the downside catalyst placed on Super Retail last week.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $12.91 Difference: $5.09
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.18, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SXE as Buy (1) -

Southern Cross Electrical Engineering is acquiring 100% of Force Fire Holdings for up to -$53.5m cash, with the transaction expected to complete on April 1.

The deal involves a -$36.3m cash payment to all vendors, -$5.2m in deferred payments and up to -$12.0m in contingent payments, and will be funded from the company's cash position ($114.8m on December 31).

Bell Potter believes the deal valuation is attractive, noting scope for cross-selling opportunities. The broker lifted FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts by 20% and 25%, respectively.

Buy maintained. Target price rises to $2.50 from $2.30.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.84
If SXE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SXE as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners observes the acquisition of Force Fire Holdings by Southern Cross Electrical Engineering for -$53.5m using the company’s cash reserves.

Force Fire is a QLD and NSW provider of fire safety solutions to both the commercial and industrial sectors and is expected to be EPS accretive by at least 18%, the analyst explains.

The acquisition aligns with the strategic aim to add adjacent and complementary businesses that boost exposure to services and maintenance-style work and recurring revenues, Shaw and Partners details.

The broker lifts EPS estimates by 18.3% in FY26 and 21.4% in FY27, and highlights the acquisition supports the company’s strategy to grow through adjacent and complementary businesses.

The Buy, High Risk rating is maintained. Target rises to $2.40 from $2.25.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.74
If SXE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Sell (5) -

Citi details the Westpac market update last Friday regarding its Project Unite, with participants able to hear from CEO Anthony Miller.

The program is cost-intensive, the analyst explains, with around 35–40% of investment occurring from FY25–FY28, or circa -$3bn, with -$600m to be spent in FY25.

Citi stresses that over half of the initiatives are in the discovery phase, while some are progressing well.

The stock continues to be Sell rated with a $26.25 target price.

Target price is $26.25 Current Price is $31.57 Difference: minus $5.32 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.07, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources