Australian Broker Call
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March 29, 2018
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
Last Updated: 03:10 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| NST - | NORTHERN STAR | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
| SFR - | SANDFIRE | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
Overnight Price: $11.56
Deutsche Bank rates A2M as Buy (1) -
In response to news that Nestle's Wyeth illuma has now entered the Chinese market with an a2 infant formula product, aptly named Atwo, Deutsche Bank analysts are opening up on potential risk to their current growth assumptions and valuation for a2 Milk.
Assuming a2 Milk retains market leadership (as first mover) and the entrance of new competitors effectively increases the market overall, the analysts suggest a2 Milk's market share might not reach 10% but stagnate at 7.5% instead in the times ahead.
All else being equal, this scenario would reduce valuation by -15% (NZ$2 per share), but at this point, without any details available or any insight into how/what Nestle is doing, the price target remains at NZ$14. Buy.
Current Price is $11.56. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $13.80, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 37.81 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.9, implying annual growth of 42.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.2. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.03
UBS rates AQG as Buy (1) -
UBS lifts near-term earnings estimates on higher gold price assumptions. The broker expects net debt to peak late in 2018 and suspects this could prove conservative, given gold prices are rising and there is a lower likelihood of capital expenditure over-runs.
Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.60 from $3.80.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: $1.57
If AQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.66, suggesting upside of 80.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.31 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.0, implying annual growth of 549.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.38
UBS rates AWC as Sell (5) -
UBS has recently lifted long-term prices for bauxite, alumina and aluminium. The changes are largely driven by a belief that the supply-side reforms and the "war on pollution" may limit what has been rampant growth and drive some cost inflation in key imports.
The broker maintains a Sell rating and raises the target to $2.10 from $2.05.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.41, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.68 cents and EPS of 20.68 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.68 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.5, implying annual growth of -14.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.04
Credit Suisse rates EVN as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse observes Cowal is a well-run operation with a clear mine life of 14 years without further work, and potential for over 20 years. The company is observed to be actively improving the quality of its portfolio.
Neutral rating. Target is $2.52.
Target price is $2.52 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 17.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 25.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 21.31 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 15.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates EVN as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie observes the company is making good progress at Cowal. The broker makes a number of changes to both near-term and long-term assumptions, which include improved recoveries, but believes the stock is fairly valued.
The broker believes opportunities for evaluating acquisitions are limited at present and capital management is a more likely driver of shareholder value.
Neutral retained. Target is raised to $3.20 from $3.00.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.16
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 25.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 15.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.36
Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -
Fortescue has -finally- admitted its prior confidence was misguided; the company won't be able to achieve 70-75% of iron ore prices paid to the Big Three in the industry. Instead, price realisation might drop to 62% for the second half (implied).
Macquarie has slightly lowered its assumption for FY18 but retains the 72% realisation assumption for FY19. As a result, its price target only drops to $5.50 from $5.80.
With the stock looking cheap, Macquarie sticks to its Outperform rating. DPS estimates have been reduced significantly.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $1.14
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.22, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.62 cents and EPS of 44.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.24 cents and EPS of 45.88 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.9, implying annual growth of -3.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates FMG as Buy (1) -
UBS downgrades underlying earnings estimates by -13% on the back of the company's recent guidance, which has revealed price realisation dropped to 62% in the second half versus the broker's forecasts of 68%.
UBS maintains a Buy rating and raises the target to $5.60 from $5.50.
Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $1.24
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.22, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.44 cents and EPS of 46.53 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 36.19 cents and EPS of 50.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.9, implying annual growth of -3.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FPH FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $12.41
Citi rates FPH as Neutral (3) -
Citi updates its model for FX rates and changes its core earnings definition. Core earnings now includes the R&D growth grants.
Neutral. Target price is NZ$13.20.
Current Price is $12.41. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.20 cents and EPS of 30.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.62 cents and EPS of 37.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of 16.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GMA GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Banks
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $2.32
Macquarie rates GMA as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie believes the stock is priced for a housing crisis, discounting for conditions that don't exist. This provides an opportunity for investors.
The broker estimates the company's required level of capital will decline by around -$0.80 per share in 2018 and -$0.70 per share in 2019. Prior to an expected capital release around 48% of the current share price is supported by excess capital.
Outperform rating maintained. Target is $3.50.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $1.18
If GMA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 19.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.20 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.63
UBS rates IGO as Neutral (3) -
UBS lifts 2018/19 nickel forecasts by 8-14%. The broker's longer-term outlook remains unchanged and the long-term nickel price forecast is still at US$6/lb.
The broker maintains a Neutral rating. Earnings estimates are lifted 11-18% for the next two years. Target is $4.40.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 473.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.1, implying annual growth of 120.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $19.58
UBS rates NCM as Sell (5) -
UBS lifts gold price assumptions by 1-2% for the next few years and upgrades Newcrest forecasts for earnings per share by 8-11%.
The short-term outlook has been clouded by the breach of the tailings dam at Cadia but the broker suggests the market will likely prioritise the long-term outlook. Sell rating and $14.70 target maintained.
Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $19.58 Difference: minus $4.88 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $20.41, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.39 cents and EPS of 77.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.56 cents and EPS of 112.45 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 115.6, implying annual growth of 89.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.38
UBS rates NST as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
UBS notes the share price has lifted around 15% since the end of 2017. While continuing to believe the stock is a quality gold name with exploration success, the market is seen paying for this going forward.
Hence, UBS downgrades to Sell from Neutral. As Newcrest ((NCM)) has suffered from another setback at Cadia the broker envisages a rotation into Northern Star, although later in the year flows could return to Newcrest. Target is raised to $6.06 from $5.68.
Target price is $6.06 Current Price is $6.38 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.47, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.4, implying annual growth of -7.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.5, implying annual growth of 45.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.51
UBS rates OGC as Buy (1) -
UBS lifts gold price forecasts by 1-2% for the next couple of years, with a commensurate increase in estimates for earnings per share. Buy rating and $4 target maintained.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.49
If OGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.59 cents and EPS of 12.93 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.46 cents and EPS of 20.68 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.9, implying annual growth of 16.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.41
UBS rates ORE as Buy (1) -
UBS observes the stock performed poorly in the current quarter and the borax division has been struggling with sustained downward price pressure and lower sales volumes. An asset sale is a possibility in the broker's opinion.
Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $7.40 from $8.10.
Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.41 Difference: $1.99
If ORE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.24, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.6, implying annual growth of 472.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 98.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.05
Deutsche Bank rates OZL as Hold (3) -
OZ Minerals had to dig deep, making a premium offer to potentially secure ownership of Avanco Resources ((AVB)) with assets and projects in Brazil. The analysts see an interesting proposition and note company management still sees accretion. Target $9.10. Hold.
Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $9.05 Difference: $0.05
If OZL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.84, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.5, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.5, implying annual growth of -26.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates OZL as Neutral (3) -
The company will acquire Brazilian copper miner Avanco Resources ((AVB)) in a cash and scrip deal that values the company at $418m. UBS is surprised by the deal, not because of the premium but rather the timing and the country.
The broker believes OZ Minerals has a full slate with Carrapateena in development and a growing pipeline of local targets. UBS suggests managing assets in Brazil will present unique risks, although the company's experience in copper offsets this somewhat.
The broker maintains a Neutral rating and $9.80 target.
Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $9.05 Difference: $0.75
If OZL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.84, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 88.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.5, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.5, implying annual growth of -26.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.46
UBS rates PRU as Neutral (3) -
UBS lifts gold price forecasts by 1-2% for the next three years, making a commensurate increase in forecasts for earnings per share. Neutral rating and $0.33 target maintained.
Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If PRU meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.50, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.0, implying annual growth of 263.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $72.77
Citi rates RIO as Buy (1) -
The company has an agreement with EMR Capital and PT Adaro Energy to sell its 80% interest in the Kestrel mine for US$2.25bn. Citi expects Rio Tinto to return the post-tax net sale proceeds to shareholders once the deal is closed in the second half.
The transaction marks the exit of coal assets for Rio Tinto. Target price is $82. Buy.
Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $72.77 Difference: $9.23
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $83.16, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 398.09 cents and EPS of 666.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 659.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 390.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 363.19 cents and EPS of 607.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 615.0, implying annual growth of -6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 370.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates RIO as Buy (1) -
The company has sold its 80% interest in the Kestrel underground coking coal mine in Queensland for US$2.25bn. The valuation is materially better than UBS estimated.
The broker expects proceeds to be returned to shareholders via buybacks. Buy rating and $90 target maintained.
Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $72.77 Difference: $17.23
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $83.16, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 409.72 cents and EPS of 672.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 659.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 390.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 386.46 cents and EPS of 629.44 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 615.0, implying annual growth of -6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 370.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.58
UBS rates RRL as Sell (5) -
UBS lifts gold price forecasts by 1-2% for the next three years, making a commensurate increase in forecasts for earnings per share.
Sell rating. Target is $3.18.
Target price is $3.18 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: minus $1.4 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting downside of -16.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 16.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of 4.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.41
UBS rates SFR as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
UBS considers the stock fully valued as the share price is now 36% above the levels of June 30, 2017. While the stock does offer exposure to rising copper prices UBS believes it is too expensive, considering the short four-year mine life at DeGrussa.
While Black Butte offers a longer-term growth option the broker envisages a number of risks in terms of timing, permits and cost. UBS downgrades to Sell from Neutral and raises the target to $6.74 from $6.66.
Target price is $6.74 Current Price is $7.41 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.02, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.5, implying annual growth of 65.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.3, implying annual growth of 25.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.45
Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley notes the Australian government proposes to align withholding tax with corporate tax to reduce Australian tax leakage. The measures also aim to reduce opportunities for double leverage.
This is directly relevant to offshore investors in Transurban and there could also be an impact on overall investor appetite, the broker suggests. Around 30% of Transurban's current shareholders are offshore.
Equal-weight rating and Cautious industry view retained. Target is $13.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.45 Difference: $1.55
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.06, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of 123.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 23.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
VOC VOCUS COMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
Telecommunication
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Overnight Price: $2.24
UBS rates VOC as Neutral (3) -
UBS notes recent press suggests a potential value for the NZ assets as low as $250m, which has led investors to question whether a sale would necessarily resolve the company's debt issues or whether the company will still need to raise equity.
UBS suggests there may be a third, and preferable, option where lenders provide relief, given the company has received temporary increases in covenant limits in the past.
A temporary lift in debt covenants would only help insofar as the company is able to grow earnings, the broker acknowledges. Neutral rating and $2.60 target maintained.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $0.36
If VOC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of -3.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.46
UBS rates WHC as Buy (1) -
Moving into the fourth quarter UBS expects management to continue its focus on consistent productivity from the 400m longwall face at Narrabri amid preparations to introduce its autonomous fleet at Maules Creek.
The broker revises coal prices, which result in an uplift to estimated earnings of 4-5% for FY18-19. A Buy rating is maintained. Target rises to $5.50 from $5.35.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $1.04
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.2, implying annual growth of 31.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.8, implying annual growth of -11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.13
UBS rates WSA as Sell (5) -
UBS lifts 2018/19 nickel forecasts by 8-14% which drive significant upgrades to earnings estimates. The broker's longer-term outlook remains unchanged and the long-term nickel price forecast is still at US$6/lb.
The broker maintains a Sell rating and raises the target to $2.80 from $2.68.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.94, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 22.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of 97.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.79
Ord Minnett rates Z1P as Initiation of coverage with Accumulate (2) -
This one is hooked into the Millennials theme, suggest analysts at Ord Minnett. They have initiated coverage with an Accumulate rating and $0.88 price target.
Zip Co is being described as a rapidly growing provider in the alternative financing and payments space. The company facilitates consumer transactions via zipMoney and zipPay products, as well as providing budgeting tools via Pocketbook.
Ord Minnett estimates the company is responsible for circa 2.3% of all online sales in Australia. Users have grown 340% over the last 12 mths; integrated merchants have grown by 260% over the same period. The company is high growth, but not expected to turn profitable in the near term (losses forecast to reduce).
Target price is $0.88 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.09
If Z1P meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| A2M | A2 MILK | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $11.56 |
| AQG | ALACER GOLD | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.03 |
| AWC | ALUMINA | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $2.38 |
| EVN | EVOLUTION MINING | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.04 |
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.04 | ||
| FMG | FORTESCUE | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.36 |
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.36 | ||
| FPH | FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $12.41 |
| GMA | GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSUR | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.32 |
| IGO | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.63 |
| NCM | NEWCREST MINING | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $19.58 |
| NST | NORTHERN STAR | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $6.38 |
| OGC | OCEANAGOLD | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.51 |
| ORE | OROCOBRE | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $5.41 |
| OZL | OZ MINERALS | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $9.05 |
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $9.05 | ||
| PRU | PERSEUS MINING | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.46 |
| RIO | RIO TINTO | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $72.77 |
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $72.77 | ||
| RRL | REGIS RESOURCES | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $4.58 |
| SFR | SANDFIRE | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $7.41 |
| TCL | TRANSURBAN GROUP | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $11.45 |
| VOC | VOCUS COMMUNICATIONS | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.24 |
| WHC | WHITEHAVEN COAL | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.46 |
| WSA | WESTERN AREAS | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $3.13 |
| Z1P | ZIP CO | Initiation of coverage with Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.79 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 10 |
| 2. Accumulate | 1 |
| 3. Hold | 9 |
| 5. Sell | 6 |
Thursday 29 March 2018
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
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